行业研究 证 券 研 究 报 告 基础化工行业重大事项点评 三代制冷剂报价全面上调，旺季渐近看好行 推荐（维持） 业长周期景气 事项： 制冷剂近期迎"二代持稳、三代普涨"行情。根据氟务在线，2 月 28 日，三 代制冷剂主流品种 R32、R32（外贸）、R125、R134a、R410a 产品报价分别调 涨 500、500、2000、2000、1000 元/吨至 6.15-6.25、6.15-6.25、5.1-5.6、5.7- 5.8、5.5-5.6 万元/吨，R143a、R507、R404 产品价格均调涨 1000 元/吨至 4.6- 4.7、4.9-4.95、4.9-4.95 万元/吨。R22、R22（原料）、R22（出口）维持 1.6-1.7、 1.1-1.2、1.6-1.7 万元/吨含税出厂价。 评论： 重点公司盈利预测、估值及投资评级 | | | | EPS（元） | | PE（倍） | | | PB（倍） | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 简称 | 代码 | 股价（元） 2025E | 2026E ...

| [行Ta业ble_Industry] : | 基础化工 | | --- | --- | | 日期: | 2026年03月03日 shzqdatemark | | [T分ab析le师_Author] : | 于庭泽 | | SAC 编号: | S0870523040001 | | 分析师: | 郭吟冬 | 行 业 周 报 [Table增_R持at（ing维] 持） 证 券 研 究 报 告 化工品价格走势 过去一周涨幅排名前五的产品分别为：液氯（50.00%）、分散黑ECT 300%（22.22%）、碳酸锂（工业级）（20.35%）、碳酸锂（电池 级）（19.62%）、粗酚（13.59%）。过去一周跌幅前五的产品分别 为 ： 纯 MDI （ -10.20% ） 、 NYMEX 天 然 气 （ -6.23% ） 、 电 石 （ - 5.60%）、LDPE（-3.35%）、浓硝酸（-3.33%）。 SAC 编号: S0870525110001 [最Ta近bl一e_年Qu行o业teP指ic数] 与沪深 300 比较 [T相ab关le报_R告e：portInfo] 《国际油价大幅上涨，关注化工涨价行情 ——基础化工行 ...

三代制冷剂涨价序幕拉开，看好板块中长 期配置价值 ——三代制冷剂涨价点评 核心观点 投资建议与投资标的 投资建议：三代制冷剂涨价序幕拉开，旺季来临价格有望继续上探。配额政策延续，看 好制冷剂景气上行，配额份额居前企业有望受益，看好板块中长期配置价值。部分相关 标的：巨化股份(600160，未评级)、三美股份(603379，未评级)、昊华科技(600378，未 评级)、永和股份(605020，未评级)。 风险提示：原料价格剧烈波动，制冷剂需求不及预期，四代制冷剂等替代品进展较快。 基础化工行业 行业研究 | 动态跟踪 国家/地区 中国 行业 基础化工行业 报告发布日期 2026 年 03 月 03 日 看好（维持） 陈传双 执业证书编号：S0860525110003 chenchuanshuang@orientsec.com.cn 021-63326320 | 磷化工战略重要性受到市场认知 | 2026-02-28 | | --- | --- | | PVC 能否成为下一个电解铝 | 2026-02-09 | | 草酸需求预期再次提升 | 2026-02-08 | 有关分析师的申明，见本报告最后部分。其他重要信 ...

行业周报 | 基础化工 证券研究报告 | 行业评级 | 推荐 (维持) | | --- | --- | | 报告日期 | 2026 年 03 月 02 日 | 相关研究 【 兴证化工 】化工行业周报 -- 一巴斯夫 调涨亚太 TDI 价格，国内 VE 厂家集体提 价（20260202-20260206）-2026.02.08 【 兴证化工 】化工行业周报― --- 伊朗局 势升温推动油价上行，TMP、对硝基氯化 苯价格上涨（20260126-20260130 ) -2026.02.03 【 兴证化工 】化工行业周报 -- -- 零碳工 厂建设指导意见发布,公募基金化工持仓 占比提升（20260119-20260123 ) -2026.01.25 分析师: 吉金 S0190522030003 jijin@xyzq.com.cn 分析师: 张勋 S0190521100002 zhangxun19@@xyzq.com.cn 分析师:刘梓涵 S0190523070006 liuzihan@xyzq.com.cn 研究助理:李思桐 lisitong@xyzq.com.cn 伊朗地缘局势升级,关注相关化工品价格波动 投资 ...

相关报告 1.【华安化工】基础化工：蓝星收购 埃肯有机硅资产，我国首个生物燃油 2.【华安化工】染料产业链格局改善， 3.【华安化工】合成生物学周报：工 （1）有机硅行业盈利步入修复通道，新兴应用领域成为核心增长引 擎。2019—2024 年，国内有机硅 DMC 产能高速扩张，引发行业阶段 性产能过剩，市场价格持续下行。2025 年，行业无新增产能落地，叠 加海外产能持续出清，供给端增速正式见顶。需求侧，新能源汽车、 光伏等新兴领域需求维持高速增长态势，叠加出口量同比提升，行业 供需格局显著改善。在此背景下，行业头部企业牵头召开行业发展研 讨会，就有机硅产品达成动态定价机制与减产协议，推动行业盈利进 入修复周期。相关公司：合盛硅业、兴发集团相关公司。 [Table_StockName基Rpt础Typ化e] 工 行业周报 美国将磷列为国防关键物资，原油、TDI、染料等价格上涨 行业评级： 增持 报告日期： 2026-03-02 [T行ab业le_周Su观m点mary] 公司价格与沪深 300 走势比较 本周（2026/02/23-2026/02/27）化工板块整体涨跌幅表现排名 第 3 位，涨跌幅为 7.15% ...

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the chemical raw materials industry is "Positive" (maintained) [1] Core Insights - The fluorochemical industry is experiencing a comprehensive price increase for third-generation refrigerants, indicating signs of recovery in fluorine materials [4][24] - The fluorochemical index rose by 4.95%, outperforming the Shanghai Composite Index by 2.97% and the CSI 300 Index by 3.87% [6][37] - The market for fluorite is stable, with the average price of 97% wet fluorite at 3,324 CNY/ton, unchanged from the previous period [7][18] Summary by Sections Fluorochemical Market Overview - The fluorite market is currently stable, with prices holding at 3,324 CNY/ton as of February 27, 2026, reflecting a year-on-year decrease of 9.71% [7][18] - The market is characterized by a tug-of-war between supply and demand, with downstream industries cautious about high raw material prices [19] Refrigerants - As of February 27, 2026, the prices for various refrigerants are as follows: R32 at 63,000 CNY/ton, R125 at 50,000 CNY/ton, and R134a at 58,000 CNY/ton, all stable compared to the previous period [20][21] - The market is showing a "second-generation stable, third-generation rising" pattern, with several refrigerants experiencing price increases [22][23] Fluorine Materials - The market for fluorine materials is showing signs of recovery, with price increases for certain products due to tightening supply and rising production costs [9] - Specific fluorine materials like PTFE and PVDF are maintaining stable pricing, while HFP prices have increased by 1.54% [9][27] Beneficiary Stocks - Recommended stocks include Jinshi Resources, Juhua Co., Sanmei Co., and Haohua Technology, with other beneficiaries being Dongyangguang, Yonghe Co., Dongyue Group, and Xinzhoubang [10][24]

化学原料 2026 年 03 月 01 日 投资评级：看好（维持） 行业走势图 数据来源：聚源 -14% 0% 14% 29% 43% 2025-03 2025-07 2025-11 化学原料 沪深300 《三美股份深度报告：三代制冷剂将 迎"黄金十年"，静待龙头引领周期 反转》（2020.12.30） 《金石资源深度报告（二）：资源储 量优势及高成长动能，金石资源开启 价值发现之旅》（2020.11.2） 《昊华科技深度报告：围绕国家科技 战略，军工基因铸就央企材料平台》 （2020.9.9） 《巨化股份深度报告：制冷剂加速更 新换代，氟化工龙头开启黄金十年》 （2020.2.11） 《金石资源深度报告：行业唯一上市 龙 头 ， 萤 石 高 景 气 助 力 腾 飞 》 （2019.11.29） 三代制冷剂报价全面上调，氟材料底部复苏迹象明显，四 氯乙烯价格大幅上涨 相关研究报告 《三代制冷剂价格淡季坚挺，新一轮 价格上涨或在酝酿；巨化股份、昊华 科技等发布 2025 业绩预增公告—氟 化工行业周报》-2026.2.1 《制冷剂 R404、R507 打响新年上涨 第一枪，三美股份、永和股份业绩预 增—氟化工行 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Optimistic" rating for the chemical industry [4][5]. Core Insights - The geopolitical conflict between the US and Iran is expected to drive up prices for methanol, ethylene glycol, and urea, with a comprehensive price increase anticipated for chemical products after the holiday [4]. - The report highlights the impact of differentiated electricity pricing in Shaanxi, which may accelerate the exit of outdated production capacities and improve industry dynamics [4]. - The overall capital expenditure in the chemical sector is at its peak, with low inventory levels in the supply chain, suggesting a favorable environment for price increases as downstream production resumes post-holiday [4]. Industry Dynamics - Current macroeconomic judgment indicates that oil prices are expected to remain in a relatively loose range, with Brent crude projected between $60 and $75 per barrel due to delayed OPEC+ production increases and stable demand recovery [5]. - Coal prices are expected to stabilize at a low level in the medium to long term, while natural gas costs may decrease as the US accelerates its export facility construction [5]. - The report notes that the January PPI for industrial products decreased by 1.4% year-on-year but increased by 0.4% month-on-month, indicating a slight recovery in the manufacturing sector [7]. Investment Analysis - The report suggests focusing on four main areas for investment: 1. Textile and apparel chain, benefiting from high demand growth and improved supply dynamics [4]. 2. Agricultural chemicals, with stable fertilizer demand and increasing transgenic penetration supporting long-term pesticide demand [4]. 3. Export-related chemical products, as overseas inventories are at historical lows and interest rates are expected to decline [4]. 4. "Anti-involution" policies leading to accelerated clearance of outdated capacities in various sectors [4]. Key Material Focus - The report emphasizes the importance of self-sufficiency in key materials, particularly in semiconductor and panel materials, as well as in lithium battery and fluorine materials [4].

Group 1: Metal Sector - Hongda Co. (600331.SH) is projected to have a net profit of 0.36 billion CNY in 2024, but is expected to incur a loss of 0.80 billion CNY in 2025, with a significant recovery to 4.00 billion CNY in 2026, resulting in a PE ratio of 131.36[17] - Zijin Mining (601899.SH) is forecasted to achieve a net profit of 320.51 billion CNY in 2024, increasing to 913.17 billion CNY by 2026, with a PE ratio dropping from 32.86 to 11.53[17] - Huaxi Nonferrous (600301.SH) is expected to see net profits rise from 6.58 billion CNY in 2024 to 12.69 billion CNY in 2026, with a PE ratio of 32.29[17] Group 2: Construction Materials - Oriental Yuhong (002271.SZ) is projected to have net profits of 1.08 billion CNY in 2024, increasing to 21.94 billion CNY by 2026, with a PE ratio of 19.60[17] - China Jushi (600176.SH) is expected to grow its net profit from 24.45 billion CNY in 2024 to 47.80 billion CNY in 2026, with a PE ratio of 22.65[17] - The construction materials sector is facing a significant supply exit, with 2024 commodity housing sales expected to decline by approximately 47% compared to 2021[44] Group 3: Transportation - YTO Express (600233.SH) is forecasted to achieve net profits of 40.12 billion CNY in 2024, increasing to 50.84 billion CNY by 2026, with a PE ratio of 13.20[17] - COSCO Shipping Energy (600026.SH) is expected to see net profits rise from 40.37 billion CNY in 2024 to 98.19 billion CNY in 2026, with a PE ratio of 10.94[17] Group 4: Chemical Sector - Boyuan Chemical (000683.SZ) is projected to have net profits of 18.11 billion CNY in 2024, decreasing to 23.43 billion CNY by 2026, with a PE ratio of 14.87[17] - Xingfa Group (600141.SH) is expected to see net profits rise from 16.01 billion CNY in 2024 to 24.54 billion CNY in 2026, with a PE ratio of 19.62[17] Group 5: Power and Coal - Longyuan Power (001289.SZ) is forecasted to achieve net profits of 63.45 billion CNY in 2024, with a slight decrease to 61.52 billion CNY by 2026, maintaining a PE ratio of 17.20[17] - Electric Power Investment (002128.SZ) is expected to see net profits rise from 53.42 billion CNY in 2024 to 68.98 billion CNY in 2026, with a PE ratio of 9.98[17]

2026 年 03 月 01 日 行业研究 评级：推荐(维持) | 1 研 2 1 2 C | | --- | | œ | | 研究所： | | | --- | --- | | 证券分析师： | 董伯骏 S0350521080009 | | | dongbj@ghzq.com.cn | | 证券分析师： | 李永磊 S0350521080004 | | | liyl03@ghzq.com.cn | | 证券分析师： | 杨仁文 S0350521120001 | | | yangrw@ghzq.com.cn | | 证券分析师： | 王鹏 S0350525090001 | | | wangp05@ghzq.com.cn | [Table_Title] 中国 2026 年计划实施 2 次载人飞行、1 次货运 飞船补给任务 ——新材料产业周报 最近一年走势 | 行业相对表现 | | | 2026/02/27 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 表现 | 1M | 3M | 12M | | 基础化工 | 6.0% | 26.1% | 52.2% | | 沪深 300 | 0.1% | 4.3% ...