晨会速递 2026 年 3 月 2 日 分析师点评 市场数据 总量研究 【宏观】如何看待"HALO 交易"？——《光大投资时钟》第三十篇 近期美股迎来一轮"HALO 交易"，从追逐"成长性"转向拥抱"确定性"和"稀缺 性"。在 AI 技术持续迭代趋势下，真正稀缺的是支撑算力的能源和电力体系以及维 持社会运行的基础设施。而中国拥有全球最完备的供应链体系，在新能源、电力设备、 战略金属、化工材料、造船等行业具备全球领先优势，将成为 AI 时代的硬资产。在 全球供应链重构和法币贬值背景下，其战略价值或迎来系统性重估。 【策略】节后表现值得期待——2026 年 3 月 A 股及港股月度金股组合 2026 年 3 月 A 股金股组合：中际旭创、科大讯飞、盛弘股份、杰瑞股份、南京银行、 华菱钢铁、川恒股份、中国巨石、太阳纸业、海尔智家。 2026 年 3 月港股金股组合： 鸿腾精密、汇聚科技、中石化油服。 【债券】中东局势紧张，转债如何应对？——2026 年 3 月 1 日可转债观察 中长期看 A 股市场稳中向好，短期看风险可控，近期中东局势的紧张甚至还会给一些 板块带来投资机会。例如，军工、航运、油汽、煤化工、黄金、战 ...

富士康对青岛新核芯的投入持续加码，2024年3月及2025年先后两次增资，累计增资超3.3亿元，其 中2025年6月，富士康母公司鸿海集团再度加码2.32亿元，通过注资与股权收购进一步扩大先进封装布 局。截至2024年11月，该工厂出货量已突破5万片，成为西海岸新区集成电路产业的重要支柱，其满产 后年产能将达36万片晶圆，可实现每月3万片12英寸芯片的封装测试能力。此外，富士康还通过工业富 联收购日月光投控位于中国大陆的4座工厂，其中包括位于山东威海的日月新半导体有限公司，重点布 局车用第三代半导体碳化矽（SiC）、绝缘栅双极电晶体（IGBT）等功率元件封装，同时通过鸿腾精密 收购山东华云光电70%股权，完善新世代移动通信领域布局，形成了以青岛、威海为核心的山东半导体 产业集群，为其电动车、机器人等新兴产业提供技术储备。 除中国基地外，越南作为富士康重要的海外制造与半导体配套基地，布局同样日趋完善。富士康自 2000年代进入越南以来，截至2024年在当地投资已超过32亿美元，制造业务主要集中在北部的北宁省和 北江省，形成了多元化的产业布局。其中，富士康全资控股的越南富山科技公司位于北宁省越南新加坡 工业园区， ...

2026 年 2 月 27 日 总量研究 节后表现值得期待 ——2026 年 3 月 A 股及港股月度金股组合 要点 2 月 A 股港股出现分化 2月A股主要指数涨多跌少，行业端分化明显，综合、建筑材料、国防军工涨幅 居前。受市场情绪积极、风险偏好维持高位等因素影响，2月（截至26日），A 股主要指数大多出现上涨，其中中证1000涨幅最大，2月份累计上涨了2.9%，而 科创50跌幅最大，累计下跌了1.6%。 2月港股市场出现回调。2月受外围市场波动、市场情绪回落等因素影响，港股 市场整体走势偏震荡。截至2026年2月26日，恒生香港35、恒生指数、恒生综合 指数、恒生中国企业指数、恒生科技的涨幅分别为3.9%、-3.7%、-3.8%、-5.4%、 -10.6%。 A股观点：表现值得期待，把握成长与顺周期两条主线 未来将进入到经济数据与政策验证阶段，市场表现值得期待。在春节之后，市场 交易热度会出现季节性回升，奠定了未来市场表现的基础。同时，未来一个月市 场将进入到密集的数据与政策验证期。1、2 月份的一系列经济金融数据将会逐 步披露，奠定市场对于全年经济的基础预期。总体来看，3 月份权益市场机会仍 然大于风险 ...

Company Analysis - Yancoal Australia (3668 HK) is expected to see a 64% decline in net profit to AUD 440 million in 2025, which is 15% lower than market expectations but 20% higher than internal forecasts due to high sensitivity to profit per unit assumptions [2] - The company announced a final dividend of AUD 0.122 per share, along with an interim dividend of AUD 0.062 per share, resulting in a total payout ratio of 55%, in line with its dividend policy [2] - For 2026, Yancoal's equity sales volume is projected to grow by 3%, but unit cash costs are expected to rise by approximately 1% due to ongoing raw material cost inflation [2] - Coal price expectations for 2026 and 2027 have been raised by 8% and 7% respectively, reflecting signs of stabilization in shipping coal prices [2] - The target price for Yancoal has been increased from HKD 31 to HKD 38, based on an updated long-term thermal coal price assumption of AUD 140 per ton [2] Market Overview - The Hang Seng Index closed at 26,766, up 0.66% for the day and 4.43% year-to-date [3] - The Shanghai Composite Index rose by 0.72% to close at 4,147, with a year-to-date increase of 4.49% [3] - The US stock market saw all major indices rebound, with the Nasdaq gaining 1.26% [5] - European markets continued their upward trend, with the Stoxx 600 index rising by 0.69% to reach a historical high [5] - The offshore RMB exchange rate against the US dollar approached 6.85, marking a nearly three-year high [5] Industry Insights - The AI server business is expected to experience rapid growth, with a projected compound annual growth rate of 95% from FY25 to FY27, leading to AI-related revenue constituting 18% of total revenue by FY27 [6] - The company anticipates a recovery in gross and net profit margins in Q4 FY25, with gross margin expected to return to 20.2% and net margin to 5.0% [6] - The target price for Hongteng Precision has been raised to HKD 7.33, based on a 21x FY26E price-to-earnings ratio, maintaining a "buy" rating [6]

Group 1 - The core message emphasizes the importance of revitalizing the domestic semiconductor industry while also looking globally [1] - Foxconn's parent company, Hon Hai Group, held a grand annual meeting in Taipei, where 10 lucky employees won a special founder's award of 10 million NTD each (approximately 2.2 million RMB) [3] - The event, named "2026 All Hon Hai Sports Carnival," attracted over 30,000 participants, including employees and their families from various countries [3] Group 2 - Hon Hai Group achieved a record revenue of over 8 trillion NTD last year and aims to continue challenging for new highs in revenue this year [4] - Chairman Liu Yangwei expressed gratitude to all employees for their contributions to the company's success and highlighted the close relationship between him and founder Terry Gou [3][4]

风险提示：港股通信息技术ETF被动跟踪中证港股通信息技术综合指数，该指数基日为2014.11.14，发 布于2017.6.23。材料中指数成份股仅作展示，个股描述不作为任何形式的投资建议，也不代表管理人旗 下任何基金的持仓信息和交易动向。本产品由华宝基金发行与管理，代销机构不承担产品的投资、兑付 和风险管理责任。投资人应当认真阅读《基金合同》、《招募说明书》、《基金产品资料概要》等基金 法律文件，了解基金的风险收益特征，选择与自身风险承受能力相适应的产品。基金过往业绩并不预示 其未来表现，基金管理人管理的其他基金的业绩并不构成基金业绩表现的保证，基金投资须谨慎！基金 银河证券2月8日研报《半导体行业周点评丨半导体板块有所回调，长期发展趋势不改》指出，长期来 看，以AI算力、国产CPU为代表的先进设计领域发展趋势不改，但是竞争或将拓展至编程工具、底层设 计方案等领域。摩尔线程推出的AI Coding Plan智能编程服务，在国产AI算力生态建设上迈出了关键一 步。 直指港股芯片超级周期！可以T+0的港股芯片产业链ETF——全市场首只聚焦"港股芯片"产业链的港股 信息技术ETF（159131），标的指数由"70% ...

2月9日，芯片半导体产业链卷土重来，港股方面，鸿腾精密、上海复旦涨逾10%，中芯国际涨超4%。 全市场首只聚焦"港股芯片"产业链的港股信息技术ETF（159131）跳空高开后震荡走强，场内价格收涨 2.80%，单日成交额超8272万元。 | | | 分时 $E 1分 5分 15分 30分 60分 日 周 月 * | | | | F9 盘角盘后 品加 光糖 面线 工具 @ 2 > | | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 0.920 | | | | 159131 战股信息技术ETF] 11:19 价 0.912 篮数 0.019(2.13%) 均价 0.910 威交量 11 IOPV 0.9136 1... | | | | 3 0236 | | 0.918 +0.025 +2.80% | | | | | monom | | with the promote with and the | - 200 | | | 1.51% | | SZSE CNY 15:00:00 00市 在看L ...

2月9日，港股市场迎来久违的"逼空"行情，三大指数高开高走，延续强势反弹势头，截止收盘，港股恒 生指数涨1.76%报27027.16点，恒生科技指数涨1.34%报5417.6点，国企指数涨1.52%报9168.33点，红筹 指数涨0.8%报4395.49点。 2. 资源与能源：供需缺口逻辑中广核矿业（01164）大涨超8%。华西证券指出，全球一次铀供应缺口将 依赖复产项目，而哈原工与关西电力的签约或加剧供需紧张，作为中广核集团海外唯一铀资源平台，其 龙头地位凸显。稀土永磁板块走强，金力永磁（06680）涨4.72%。受分离厂停产及大厂补库影响，氧 化镨钕价格跳涨至80.5万元/吨，市场看涨情绪升温。 3. 机器人与高端制造：全球龙头效应卧安机器人（06600）飙升近12%。作为2024年全球家庭机器人系 统零售额冠军（市占率11.9%），且有望在2026年3月纳入港股通，其稀缺性备受瞩目。迈富时 （02556）涨超7%，Agent需求的指数级爆发是其核心催化剂。 4. 消费与文娱：IP与新品驱动泡泡玛特（09992）涨5%，延续强势。心动公司（02400）涨4.23%，旗下 《心动小镇》凭借"小马宝莉"IP联 ...

Group 1: Macro Commentary - The manufacturing PMI in China has shown a decline, indicating weaker demand, with new orders and export orders decreasing [5] - Domestic and external demand weakness is expected to slow growth momentum, prompting potential policy easing before and after the "Two Sessions" [5] - GDP growth is projected to decrease from 5% in 2025 to 4.6% in 2026, with expectations of RRR and LPR cuts [5] Group 2: Industry Commentary - Apple reported FY1Q26 earnings that exceeded expectations, with a 16% year-on-year revenue growth driven by strong iPhone sales and a 38% increase in the Chinese market [5] - The gross margin for Apple improved to 48.2%, and the guidance for FY2Q26 indicates a revenue growth of 13-16% despite supply constraints [5] - The technology sector is expected to benefit from Apple's product cycle and collaborations with Google AI, with companies like Luxshare Precision and BYD Electronics positioned for growth [5] Group 3: Company Commentary - Thermo Fisher reported a strong 4Q25 performance with a 7.2% year-on-year revenue growth, driven by demand from pharmaceutical clients [6] - The company expects a revenue growth of 3.9% to 5.9% for 2026, with adjusted EPS growth of 5.9% to 8.4% [6] - Recent acquisitions are expected to enhance Thermo Fisher's capabilities and drive future growth, with an anticipated adjusted EPS growth of 7-9% [7][8] Group 4: Company Forecasts - Zhengli's battery sales forecast for 2025 has been raised from 18.4 GWh to 19.6 GWh due to strong demand from new electric vehicle models [9] - The average selling price is expected to increase, leading to a projected net profit growth of 550% to 591 million yuan in 2025 [9] - For 2026, Zhengli's sales forecast remains at 30 GWh, with an 8% revenue increase expected, raising the net profit forecast to 1.36 billion yuan [9]

Core Insights - The performance of several funds heavily invested in the AI sector has been notable, with some achieving significant gains in 2025, but there are differing opinions among fund managers regarding future prospects [1][2]. Group 1: Fund Performance and Adjustments - The fund "China Europe Digital Economy" achieved a 143.07% increase in 2025, ranking high among active equity funds, with notable increases in holdings of companies like Shengyi Technology and Inspur Information in Q4 [2]. - The "Qianhai Kaiyuan Hong Kong-Shenzhen Enjoy Life" fund also saw significant growth, adjusting its top holdings to focus more on optical communication and liquid cooling sectors [3]. Group 2: Investment Opportunities and Risks - Fund managers are optimistic about hardware investment opportunities linked to computing power, with expectations that the share of "light" and "storage" in capital expenditures will increase by 2026 [4]. - There is a potential energy crisis due to the rapid construction of AI data centers outpacing traditional grid expansion, leading to investment opportunities in power infrastructure companies [5]. Group 3: Perspectives on Valuation and Market Sentiment - There is a debate among fund managers regarding the valuation of AI stocks, with some arguing that while valuations have recovered, they do not necessarily indicate a bubble [6]. - The concept of "bubble" is viewed as neutral, with the focus on whether technological advancements can sustain new applications and whether commercialization can convert capital into real income [7].