策略参考 宝城期货豆类油脂早报（2025 年 8 月 25 日） 品种观点参考 备注： 1.有夜盘的品种以夜盘收盘价为起始价格，无夜盘的品种以昨日收盘价为起始价格，当日日盘收盘 价为终点价格，计算涨跌幅度。 2.跌幅大于 1%为偏弱，跌幅 0~1%为震荡偏弱，涨幅 0~1%为震荡偏强，涨幅大于 1%为偏强。 3.震荡偏强/偏弱只针对日内观点，短期和中期不做区分。 投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2011】1778 号 时间周期说明：短期为一周以内、中期为两周至一月(以前一日夜盘收盘价为基准) 品种 短期 中期 日内 观点参考 核心逻辑概要 <点击目录链接，直达品种 策略解析> 豆粕 2601 震荡 震荡 震荡 偏弱 震荡偏弱 进口到港节奏，海关通关检 验，油厂开工节奏，备货需求 豆油 2601 偏强 震荡 震荡 偏强 震荡偏强 美国生物燃料政策，美豆油 库存，国内大豆成本支撑， 供应节奏，油厂库存 棕榈 2601 偏强 震荡 震荡 偏强 震荡偏强 生物柴油属性，马棕产量和 出口，印尼出口，主产国关税 政策，国内到港、库存，替代 需求 ◼ 主要品种价格行情驱动逻辑—商品期货农产品板块 品种：豆粕（M） 日内观点：震 ...

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Steel futures prices show signs of temporary stabilization, with the price matching the cost support of EAF valley electricity. The supply - demand structure has marginally weakened, and the overall contradiction is not prominent. The market sentiment is expected to return to the industrial fundamentals. Future price movements depend on pre - parade production restrictions, and the near - term support level is the EAF valley electricity cost [3]. - For coking coal and coke, the fifth round of coke price increase has been implemented, but the steel - coke game has intensified. The coal price is relatively firm, and the market is volatile. The black - commodity sector is expected to be in a volatile state. It is recommended to be bearish on jm09 and take profit on previous cash - and - carry arbitrage [4][5]. - The price fluctuations of ferrosilicon and silicomanganese have decreased. The "anti - involution" logic supports the prices. The supply is slightly increasing, and the inventory is being depleted, but the inventory level is still high, and the industry profit has been repaired [5]. - After the relevant meetings, the iron ore market has been volatile. Although the iron - making water output has declined, it remains at a high level. The "anti - involution" policy is likely to continue, and the future supply of iron ore is expected to increase, which will limit the price increase. The 01 - contract iron ore still has support below and may rise after adjustment [5]. Summary by Related Catalogs Steel - Futures prices showed a small rebound after a decline on Monday, matching the EAF valley electricity cost support. Spot prices declined slightly, and trading volume increased. The supply - demand structure has marginally weakened, and the overall contradiction is not prominent. The "anti - involution" story will diverge. Future price movements depend on pre - parade production restrictions, and the near - term support level is the EAF valley electricity cost [3]. Coking Coal and Coke - The fifth round of coke price increase has been implemented, but the steel - coke game has intensified. The coal price is relatively firm, and the market trading volume is average. The futures market opened low and moved high on Monday, with support at the 20 - day line. The market is expected to be volatile, and it is recommended to be bearish on jm09 and take profit on previous cash - and - carry arbitrage [4][5]. Ferrosilicon and Silicomanganese - The price fluctuations have decreased. The "anti - involution" logic supports the prices. The supply is slightly increasing, and the inventory is being depleted, but the inventory level is still high. The industry profit has been repaired [5]. Iron Ore - After the relevant meetings, the market has been volatile. The iron - making water output has declined but remains at a high level. The "anti - involution" policy is likely to continue, and the future supply of iron ore is expected to increase, which will limit the price increase. The 01 - contract iron ore still has support below and may rise after adjustment [5].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Views of the Report - Copper: Overnight LME copper fluctuated weakly, down 1.26% to $9,607/ton; SHFE copper fell 0.55% to 78,010 yuan/ton. The domestic spot import remained in a loss state, but the loss margin narrowed. Core inflation indicators rebounded, intensifying the divergence within the Fed on further interest rate cuts. Trump extended the US - Mexico tariff for 90 days, and China - US negotiations were still ongoing. LME, Comex inventories increased, while SHFE copper warehouse receipts decreased. Affected by the off - season, consumption remained weak. Considering the recent macro - factors and inventory accumulation, copper prices are currently considered weak [1]. - Aluminum: Alumina,沪铝, and aluminum alloy all fluctuated weakly. The price of SMM alumina rebounded, and the spot discount of aluminum ingots widened. The export of bauxite from Guinea began to decline during the rainy season, and the domestic short - term ore reserves were relatively sufficient with obvious cost support. The supply is expected to increase after the return of Shunda's mining rights. The electrolytic aluminum supply - demand margin shifted, leading to smooth inventory accumulation of aluminum ingots. The supply of scrap aluminum is expected to be tight in the short term, making it more resistant to price drops compared to electrolytic aluminum [1][2]. - Nickel: Overnight LME nickel fell 0.89% to $14,950/ton, and SHFE nickel fell to 120,000 yuan/ton. LME inventory increased, and SHFE warehouse receipts decreased. The price of domestic nickel ore decreased slightly, the transaction price of nickel iron moved up, and the price of battery - grade nickel sulfate increased. In the short term, nickel and stainless - steel prices were affected by market sentiment and weakened, showing a volatile trend [2]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Research Views - **Copper**: Overnight LME copper dropped 1.26% to $9,607/ton, SHFE copper fell 0.55% to 78,010 yuan/ton. The US June PCE price index and core PCE were higher than expected, intensifying Fed's divergence on rate cuts. LME and Comex inventories increased, SHFE copper warehouse receipts decreased. Affected by the off - season, consumption was weak. Macro - factors and inventory accumulation made copper prices weak [1]. - **Aluminum**: Alumina,沪铝, and aluminum alloy all trended weakly. Alumina price rebounded, aluminum ingot spot discount widened. Guinea's bauxite export declined, domestic ore reserves were sufficient with cost support. Supply is expected to increase. Electrolytic aluminum supply - demand shifted, leading to inventory accumulation. Scrap aluminum supply is expected to be tight [1][2]. - **Nickel**: LME nickel dropped 0.89% to $14,950/ton, SHFE nickel fell. LME inventory increased, SHFE warehouse receipts decreased. Nickel ore price decreased slightly, nickel iron price moved up, battery - grade nickel sulfate price increased. Short - term prices were affected by sentiment and showed volatility [2]. 3.2 Daily Data Monitoring - **Copper**: The price of flat - water copper decreased, and the inventory in different regions changed. LME inventory remained unchanged, SHFE warehouse receipts decreased, COMEX inventory increased, and social inventory increased [3]. - **Lead**: The average price of 1 lead decreased, and the inventory in the LME remained unchanged while the SHFE inventory increased [3]. - **Aluminum**: The prices of aluminum in different regions decreased, the inventory in the LME remained unchanged, and the SHFE warehouse receipts decreased. The social inventory of electrolytic aluminum remained unchanged, and the alumina inventory decreased [5]. - **Nickel**: The price of Jinchuan nickel decreased, the inventory in the LME remained unchanged, and the SHFE nickel warehouse receipts decreased. The social inventory of nickel decreased [5]. - **Zinc**: The主力结算价 decreased, the LmeS3 price remained unchanged, and the inventory in the LME remained unchanged while the SHFE inventory increased [6]. - **Tin**: The主力结算价 decreased, the LmeS3 price decreased, and the inventory in the LME remained unchanged while the SHFE inventory increased [6]. 3.3 Chart Analysis - **Spot Premium**: Charts show the historical trends of spot premiums for copper, aluminum, nickel, zinc, lead, and tin [7][8][10]. - **SHFE Near - Far Month Spread**: Charts display the historical trends of the spread between the first and second - continuous contracts for copper, aluminum, nickel, zinc, lead, and tin [15][17][19]. - **LME Inventory**: Charts present the historical trends of LME inventories for copper, aluminum, nickel, zinc, lead, and tin [21][23][25]. - **SHFE Inventory**: Charts show the historical trends of SHFE inventories for copper, aluminum, nickel, zinc, lead, and tin [28][30][32]. - **Social Inventory**: Charts display the historical trends of social inventories for copper, aluminum, nickel, zinc, stainless steel, and 300 - series steel [34][36][38]. - **Smelting Profit**: Charts present the historical trends of copper concentrate index, rough copper processing fee, aluminum smelting profit, nickel - iron smelting cost, zinc smelting profit, and stainless - steel 304 smelting profit rate [41][43][45]. 3.4 Non - Research Content - **Team Introduction**: The report introduced the members of the non - ferrous metals team, including Zhan Dapeng, Wang Heng, and Zhu Xi, along with their educational backgrounds, positions, research directions, and professional achievements [47][48][49].

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - There is no information provided about the report industry investment rating in the given content. Group 2: Core Viewpoints of the Report - For cotton, the ICE U.S. cotton decreased by 0.25% to 67.5 cents per pound on Wednesday, and the CF509 dropped by 1.89% to 13,755 yuan per ton. The main contract's open interest decreased by 37,728 lots to 375,900 lots. The cotton arrival price in Xinjiang was 15,343 yuan per ton, down 88 yuan from the previous day, and the China Cotton Price Index for Grade 3128B was 15,470 yuan per ton, down 110 yuan. Internationally, the market focus is on the macro - level. After the Fed's July FOMC meeting, the probability of a September rate cut dropped below 50%, the U.S. dollar strengthened, and U.S. cotton prices were under pressure. Domestically, the 09 contract is reducing positions and declining, and the 9 - 1 spread is narrowing. Considering the low commercial cotton inventory and the macro - sentiment, there may not be much downside for the 09 contract. For the 01 contract, pay attention to the Sino - U.S. negotiation results, and the short - term fundamental drivers are limited. The overall view is oscillating and slightly bearish [1]. - For sugar, the spot quotes of Guangxi and Yunnan sugar - making groups were stable, and some processing sugar mills lowered their prices by 10 yuan per ton. The raw sugar market is centered around Brazil's crushing progress without a clear direction. The domestic futures market is in the process of position transfer. The September contract is under pressure and has returned to around 5,800 points. The January contract has slightly stronger support due to the expected delayed start of the crushing season. The view is oscillating, and there is still a small upward space for the 9 - 1 spread [1]. Group 3: Summary by Relevant Catalogs 1. Daily Data Monitoring - **Cotton**: The 9 - 1 spread was - 150 yuan, down 50 yuan; the main contract basis was 1,715 yuan, up 60 yuan. The Xinjiang spot price was 15,343 yuan per ton, down 88 yuan, and the national price was 15,470 yuan per ton, down 110 yuan [2]. - **Sugar**: The 9 - 1 spread was 130 yuan, down 10 yuan; the main contract basis was 271 yuan, up 63 yuan. The Nanning spot price was 6,050 yuan per ton, unchanged, and the Liuzhou price was 6,075 yuan per ton, unchanged [2]. 2. Market Information - On July 30, the number of cotton futures warehouse receipts was 9,055, down 101 from the previous day, with 348 valid forecasts. The cotton arrival prices in different regions were: 15,343 yuan per ton in Xinjiang, 15,512 yuan per ton in Henan, 15,468 yuan per ton in Shandong, and 15,610 yuan per ton in Zhejiang [3]. - On July 30, the yarn comprehensive load was 49.3, unchanged from the previous day; the yarn comprehensive inventory was 29.6, up 0.1. The short - fiber cloth comprehensive load was 47.8, unchanged, and the short - fiber cloth comprehensive inventory was 33.5, up 0.1 [3]. - On July 30, the sugar spot prices in Nanning and Liuzhou were 6,050 yuan per ton and 6,075 yuan per ton respectively, unchanged from the previous day. The number of sugar futures warehouse receipts was 19,520, down 226 from the previous day, with 0 valid forecasts [3][4]. 3. Chart Analysis - There are multiple charts including those for cotton (e.g., main contract closing price, basis, 9 - 1 spread, 1% tariff quota internal - external spread, warehouse receipts and valid forecasts, China Cotton Price Index) and sugar (e.g., main contract closing price, basis, 9 - 1 spread, warehouse receipts and valid forecasts) [6][8][9][10][11][12][14][15][17].

Investment Rating - Not provided in the report Core Views - The report provides operation suggestions for various futures contracts based on different factors such as market trends, policy expectations, and supply - demand relationships [2]. Summary by Category Financial Futures - **Stock Index Futures**: There is an obvious high - low rotation among sectors. It is recommended to gradually take profits on long positions in IM futures and switch to a small number of short positions in MO put options with a strike price of 6000 in the 08 contract, reducing the position and maintaining a moderately bullish view [2]. - **Treasury Bond Futures**: Affected by the strong stock market and incremental policy expectations, treasury bond futures have declined, releasing some policy over - expectation risks in advance. It is recommended to wait and see in the short term and pay attention to the Politburo meeting communique [2]. - **Precious Metals**: The short - term international gold price has formed support at the 60 - day moving average (around 760 yuan for Shanghai gold). It is possible to buy on dips during the stage. Silver is affected by commodity market sentiment, and its price fluctuates above 38 US dollars (9100 yuan), and it is advisable to buy on dips [2]. Commodity Futures Shipping - **Container Shipping Index (European Line)**: The EC main contract is expected to be weakly volatile. It is possible to short the 08 contract or short the 10 contract on rallies [2]. Black Metals - **Steel**: Affected by production cut expectations, steel prices have strengthened. Iron ore prices fluctuate with steel prices. It is recommended to go long on hot - rolled coils and short on iron ore [2]. - **Coking Coal**: The exchange's position limit intervention has caused significant fluctuations in futures prices, and spot prices have increased in auctions. Mongolian coal is temporarily stable. It is recommended to go long on dips [2]. - **Coke**: The fourth round of price increases by mainstream coking plants has been implemented. Coking profits are meager, and there are still expectations for further price increases. It is recommended to go long on dips [2]. Non - ferrous Metals - **Copper**: The copper price is fluctuating narrowly, waiting for macro - level drivers. The main reference range is 78,000 - 80,000 [2]. - **Alumina**: Warehouse receipts have decreased again, and there is a risk of a short squeeze. The main reference range is 3100 - 3500 [2]. - **Aluminum**: Aluminum prices have declined slightly, and the expectation of inventory accumulation in the off - season is still strong. The main reference range is 20,200 - 21,000 [2]. Energy and Chemicals - **Crude Oil**: Geopolitical risks have increased market concerns about marginal supply contraction, and oil prices have risen. The WTI resistance level is given above. Options can be used to capture volatility opportunities [2][3]. - **Urea**: Export difficulties and high inventories suppress the rebound space. The short - term market is mainly in a range - bound state. It is recommended to wait and see in the short term [2]. - **PX**: Supply - demand expectations are tight, but the downstream industry chain still drags down PX trends. Pay attention to the pressure around 7000 and be cautiously bearish. Expand the PX - SC spread at low levels [2]. Agricultural Products - **Soybean Meal**: The bottom support of US soybeans is strong, and the loose supply - demand situation suppresses the price of soybean meal. The price is weakly volatile [2]. - **Pig Futures**: The spot market remains sluggish, and the previous policy benefits have been digested. It is recommended to be cautious and short the 09 contract [2]. - **Corn**: The market is mixed with both long and short factors, and the futures price is in a range - bound state [2].

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided Group 2: Core Viewpoints of the Report - The cotton market is expected to be volatile. Internationally, the focus is on the Sino - US negotiation results and the Fed's July interest - rate meeting and September interest - rate cut expectations. Domestically, the 09 contract of cotton is unlikely to decline significantly due to tight spot inventory, while the 01 contract is mainly driven by the macro - level tone after the end - of - month important meeting [2]. - The sugar market is also expected to be volatile. The Brazilian new crushing data is about to be released, and the domestic spot market is worried about imports. The 9 - 1 reverse spread of sugar futures is effective, and the future upside of the futures price is limited under the pressure of hedging [2]. Group 3: Summary by Relevant Catalogs Research Views - **Cotton**: On Tuesday, ICE US cotton dropped 1%, closing at 67.66 cents per pound. CF509 decreased 1.87% to 13,925 yuan per ton, with the main - contract positions decreasing by 55,334 hands to 413,700 hands. The cotton arrival price in Xinjiang was 15,431 yuan per ton, down 42 yuan from the previous day, and the China Cotton Price Index for Grade 3128B was 15,580 yuan per ton, down 29 yuan [2]. - **Sugar**: Analysts expect the sugarcane crushing volume in the central - southern region of Brazil in the first half of July to be 48.3 million tons, a 11.3% year - on - year increase; sugar production to be 3.3 million tons, a 12.5% increase; and ethanol production to be 2.19 billion liters, a 2.3% increase. The spot quotes of sugar in different regions have different trends, and the domestic futures price rebounds slightly following the raw sugar [2]. Daily Data Monitoring - **Cotton**: The 9 - 1 spread was - 100 yuan, a decrease of 110 yuan; the main - contract basis was 1,655 yuan, an increase of 121 yuan. The spot price in Xinjiang was 15,431 yuan per ton, down 42 yuan, and the national price was 15,580 yuan per ton, down 29 yuan [3]. - **Sugar**: The 9 - 1 spread was 140 yuan, a decrease of 24 yuan; the main - contract basis was 208 yuan, a decrease of 22 yuan. The spot prices in Nanning and Liuzhou were 6,050 yuan per ton and 6,075 yuan per ton respectively, both unchanged [3]. Market Information - **Cotton**: On July 29, the number of cotton futures warehouse receipts was 9,156, a decrease of 70 from the previous day, with 348 valid forecasts. The cotton arrival prices in different domestic regions varied. The yarn comprehensive load was 49.3, down 0.1 from the previous day; the yarn comprehensive inventory was 29.5, down 0.1; the short - fiber cloth comprehensive load was 47.8, unchanged; and the short - fiber cloth comprehensive inventory was 33.4, unchanged [4]. - **Sugar**: On July 29, the spot prices of sugar in Nanning and Liuzhou remained unchanged. The number of sugar futures warehouse receipts was 19,746, a decrease of 404 from the previous day, with 0 valid forecasts [4][5]. Chart Analysis - Multiple charts are provided, including those showing the closing price, basis, 9 - 1 spread, 1% tariff - quota internal - external spread, warehouse receipts and valid forecasts of cotton, as well as the closing price, basis, 9 - 1 spread, and warehouse receipts and valid forecasts of sugar [7][9][11][13][15][16][18] Research Team Personnel Introduction - Zhang Xiaojin, the director of resource - product research at Everbright Futures Research Institute, focuses on the sugar industry and has won many awards [20]. - Zhang Linglu, an analyst at Everbright Futures Research Institute, is responsible for research on futures varieties such as urea and soda - ash glass and has also won multiple honors [21]. - Sun Chengzhen, an analyst at Everbright Futures Research Institute, is engaged in fundamental research and data analysis of varieties such as cotton, cotton yarn, and ferroalloy and has won relevant titles [22].

Summary of Conference Call Industry or Company Involved - Focus on the Chinese economy and its macroeconomic policies, particularly regarding supply-side reforms and the concept of "anti-involution" [1][2][4][5][6][19][21] Core Points and Arguments 1. **Supply-Side Reform and Anti-Involution**: The discussion centers around the ongoing supply-side reforms in China, particularly the government's initiative to combat "involution" and promote structural adjustments in various industries [1][5][19][21] 2. **Market Sentiment and Liquidity**: Recent discussions with private and public investors indicate a warming sentiment in the stock market, with some investors perceiving signs of a bull market, although the fundamental economic situation remains challenging [4][6][19] 3. **Policy Expectations**: The expectation for the second half of the year is that policies will focus on structural adjustments and gradual support, with a recognition that initial measures may only address surface issues rather than deeper structural problems [5][21] 4. **Economic Data Trends**: There is an anticipation of economic activity peaking in the first half of the year, followed by a potential decline in the latter half, influenced by previous policy measures and external factors [5][21] 5. **Impact of U.S.-China Relations**: Ongoing negotiations between the U.S. and China are expected to continue without significant breakthroughs, with tariffs likely remaining at current levels for an extended period [12][13][15][18] 6. **Real Estate Market Dynamics**: The real estate sector is under scrutiny, with expectations for policies to support it, but challenges remain due to mismatches in supply and demand across different cities [25][26] 7. **Social Security and Welfare Reforms**: There are indications of gradual reforms in the social security system, including potential nationwide birth subsidies and free preschool education, aimed at enhancing consumer spending and social welfare [27][28][29] 8. **Inflation and Economic Growth**: The discussion highlights the potential for inflationary pressures in certain sectors, but overall demand remains weak, complicating the path to sustainable economic growth [35][36] Other Important but Possibly Overlooked Content 1. **Historical Context**: The current reform efforts are compared to previous supply-side reforms from 2015 to 2018, with an emphasis on the need for a more profound structural change rather than just addressing superficial issues [22][24][31] 2. **Market Reactions**: There is a caution against overly optimistic market expectations, particularly regarding the speed and effectiveness of policy implementations [45][56] 3. **Investment Opportunities**: The call suggests that while the immediate outlook may be cautious, there are potential long-term investment opportunities arising from structural changes in various industries, particularly those that have previously undergone supply-side reforms [40][44][55]

Core Viewpoint - The total net asset value of public funds in China reached a historical high of 34.39 trillion yuan as of June 30, 2025, with significant contributions from bond funds and a mixed performance in equity funds [1][3][4]. Fund Size Growth - As of June 30, 2025, there are 164 public fund management institutions in China, managing a total net asset value of 34.39 trillion yuan, marking a growth of 651.9 billion yuan from the end of May [3][4]. - The public bond fund size increased by 507.8 billion yuan in June, reaching 7.28 trillion yuan, with a year-to-date growth trend observed over four consecutive months [6][5]. Bond Fund Performance - Bond funds were the main contributors to the overall growth, with a monthly increase exceeding 500 billion yuan in June [5]. - The bond market is expected to remain bullish in the second half of the year, supported by favorable fundamentals and liquidity conditions, although there are concerns regarding high leverage and duration risks in a low volatility environment [8][7]. Equity Fund Performance - The A-share market showed positive performance in June, with the Shanghai Composite Index rising by 2.9%, leading to an increase in the size of equity funds [9]. - Stock funds and mixed funds saw increases of 148.3 billion yuan and 121.3 billion yuan, respectively, with growth rates of 3.24% and 3.4% [10]. New Fund Issuance - In June, 110 new equity funds were established, raising a total of 51.6 billion yuan, accounting for approximately 40% of the total new fund issuance [11]. - The outlook for the A-share market remains optimistic, driven by sectors such as AI, military, and innovative pharmaceuticals, alongside supportive domestic policies [11]. QDII Fund Growth - QDII funds experienced a growth of approximately 4.51%, reaching a total size of 683.7 billion yuan by the end of June, benefiting from strong inflows and favorable market conditions [12][13].

Group 1: Report Overview - The report is a daily research report on meal products dated July 9, 2025, focusing on the market conditions of soybean meal and rapeseed meal [2][4] Group 2: Market Quotes Futures and Spot Basis - For soybean meal, the closing prices of contracts 01, 05, and 09 are 2997, 2704, and 2947 respectively, with changes of +8, -1, and +12. The spot basis in Tianjin, Dongguan, Zhangjiagang, and Rizhao shows a downward trend [4] - For rapeseed meal, the closing prices of contracts 01, 05, and 09 are 2313, 2306, and 2586 respectively, with changes of +3, -6, and +10. The spot basis in Nantong, Guangdong, and Guangxi shows a stable or slightly downward trend [4] Monthly Spread - The 59, 91, and 15 spreads of soybean meal are -243, -50, and 293 respectively, with changes of -13, +4, and +9. The 59, 91, and 15 spreads of rapeseed meal are -280, 273, and 7 respectively, with changes of -16, +7, and +9 [4] Cross - Variety Futures Spread - The soybean - rapeseed 01 spread is 684, and the soybean - rapeseed 09 spread is 361. The oil - meal ratio 01 is 2.641 [4] Spot Spread - The spread between soybean meal and rapeseed meal is 640, with an increase of 9. The spread between rapeseed meal and sunflower meal is 7, with an increase of 3. The spread between soybean meal and sunflower meal is 587, with an increase of 2 [4] Market Performance - The US soybean market continued to decline slightly. The domestic soybean meal market rebounded, and the rapeseed meal market also followed a slight rebound. The spread between soybean meal and rapeseed meal widened [4] Group 3: Fundamental Analysis US Soybean - The new US soybean balance sheet has improved, mainly due to the boost of biodiesel policies on crushing. As of the week ending July 6, the good - to - excellent rate of US soybeans reached 66%. As of the week ending July 3, the export inspection volume of old US soybeans was 389,400 tons. The soybean crushing data in May was good, with a NOPA - caliber crushing volume of 192.829 million bushels, a month - on - month increase of 1.37%, and the crushing profit rebounded [5] South American Soybean - Brazilian farmers' selling progress has been slow, and the recent selling progress has further slowed down, resulting in price pressure. Brazilian soybean crushing volume has decreased, and the crushing profit is relatively low. Argentina's domestic crushing volume may improve, but soybean exports may increase [5] Domestic Market - The domestic spot market is relatively loose. As of July 4, the actual soybean crushing volume of oil mills is 2.3322 million tons, the operating rate is 65.56%, the soybean inventory is 6.364 million tons, a decrease of 4.43% from the previous week, and an increase of 11.28% year - on - year. The soybean meal inventory is 822,400 tons, an increase of 18.91% from the previous week, and a decrease of 24.04% year - on - year [7] - The demand for domestic rapeseed meal has weakened. As of the week ending July 4, the crushing volume of rapeseed in major coastal oil mills is 47,000 tons, the operating rate this week is 12.53%, the rapeseed inventory is 162,000 tons, a decrease of 26,000 tons from the previous week, and the rapeseed meal inventory is 4,600 tons, a decrease of 6,400 tons from the previous week [7] Group 4: Macroeconomic Analysis - The China - US negotiations in London have been completed, but there is no clear information. The market is still worried about supply uncertainties. Although the overall international trade situation has many uncertainties, the macro - level disturbances are decreasing. China's long - term demand for US soybeans is still high, so the price is not likely to drop significantly in the short term [8] Group 5: Logic Analysis Soybean Meal - The domestic soybean meal market shows some support and is slightly stronger than the international market. The US soybean market is expected to be weak, but the decline in the domestic market is expected to be limited. The monthly spread of the domestic soybean meal market may be under some pressure, but the space for a sharp decline is limited [9] Rapeseed Meal - The change in the rapeseed meal market is relatively limited, mainly affected by the soybean meal market. The spread between soybean meal and rapeseed meal is expected to widen. The monthly spread of the rapeseed meal market is at a high level and may face some pressure [9] Group 6: Trading Strategies - For unilateral trading, a low - position long - order strategy is recommended - For arbitrage, an expansion strategy for the MRM09 spread is recommended - For options, a wait - and - see strategy is recommended [10] Group 7: Soybean Crushing Profit - The crushing profit from different origins and shipping dates varies. For example, the crushing profit from Argentina in October is - 33.39 for the futures market and - 109.79 for the spot market, showing an improvement compared to the previous day [11]

Group 1 - The domestic liquefied gas market in China showed a downward trend in the first half of 2025, with an average price of 4833 yuan/ton for civil gas, down 84 yuan/ton or 1.71% year-on-year [2] - The average price for ether C4 was 4947 yuan/ton, a decrease of 317 yuan/ton or 6.02% year-on-year [2] - The overall energy prices were weak due to macro risks and supply-demand dynamics, with international crude oil prices fluctuating significantly [2][3] Group 2 - The supply of liquefied gas in the domestic market exceeded demand in the first half of 2025, with total supply estimated at 38.07 million tons and total demand at 37.56 million tons [3] - Inventory levels showed a trend of decreasing initially and then increasing, influenced by rising imports and low domestic demand [3] - The forecast for the second half of 2025 indicates a potential increase in liquefied gas prices initially, followed by a decline due to supply exceeding demand [4][6] Group 3 - The expected total supply for the second half of 2025 is 38.88 million tons, while total demand is projected at 37.60 million tons [4] - Domestic production is anticipated to increase due to reduced refinery maintenance and the gradual resumption of previously halted facilities [4] - The demand for liquefied gas is expected to rise slightly as the market transitions from off-peak to peak season, but overall demand remains in a downward trend [5] Group 4 - The average price forecast for civil gas in the second half of 2025 is 4773 yuan/ton, with a high of 4910 yuan/ton in October and a low of 4600 yuan/ton in July [7] - The average price for ether C4 is projected to be 4901 yuan/ton, with a peak of 5000 yuan/ton in September and a low of 4780 yuan/ton in December [7] - The market for ether C4 is expected to experience price fluctuations, initially rising due to increased demand and then declining in the fourth quarter [7]