2025年，全球金融市场经历了货币政策转向与经济格局重构的变革，美联储开启降息周期、中国经济韧性凸显、全球贸易格局深度调整等多重因素交织，推 动人民币汇率呈现 "先弱后强、波动收窄" 的运行特征。 12月22日，人民币对美元收报1美元兑换7.0382元人民币，较上年末上涨2606个基点，升值幅度约3.7%。 智通财经记者 | 张一诺 2026年，人民币升值的趋势有望得到延续。智通财经综合9家机构的预测显示，新的一年人民币对美元汇率将呈现 "温和升值为主基调、双向波动常态化、 先升后稳显韧性" 的核心特征，汇率中枢有望突破 7.0 整数关口，全年运行区间预计在6.7-7.2之间，年底有望收于6.7-7.0区间。 以下是智通财经采访的9家机构关于2026年人民币走势的观点（排名不分先后）： | 机构 | 观点 | | --- | --- | | 财通证券 | 人民币对美元上半年闽值"7"，下半 | | 德意志银行 | 人民币对美元或升向6.7-6.8 | | 东吴证券 | 2026年底人民币对美元或升向6.7-6.8 | | 华泰证券 | 2026年底美元对人民币汇率或在6.82 | | 瑞银 | 2026年6月 ...

Trade Relations - US Treasury Secretary stated that China has so far fulfilled its commitments in trade negotiations [1] - The Trump administration aims to promote the rebalancing of US-China trade [1]

目前国际玉米市场的供需情况如何？ 国内玉米市场供需情况及未来价格走势如何？ 从国际市场来看，2025 年美国的玉米产量显著增加，主要原因是播种面积大 幅增长。根据美国农业部 12 月份的报告，美国玉米产量从 3.78 亿吨增至 4.25 亿吨，增幅达 4,700 万吨。同时，巴西的玉米产量预期从 1.36 亿吨降至 1.31 亿吨，减少 500 万吨；阿根廷则从 5,000 万吨增至 5,300 万吨，增加 300 万吨。总体而言，主要出口国总共增加了 4,500 万吨左右的产量。国际市 场上的库存较为充裕，其库销比在 21%左右，这在历史上属于偏宽松状态。而 美国本土的库存消费比达到了 12.5%，处于近年来相对较高的位置。基于这些 因素，我们预计国际玉米价格将在 400 美分到 500 美分之间波动。 农产品供需近况和价格展望 20251214 摘要 国际玉米市场库存充裕，库销比约为 21%，预计国际玉米价格在 400- 500 美分区间波动。巴西玉米产量下调，阿根廷上调，主要出口国总产 量增加约 4,500 万吨。 国内玉米市场 2025/26 年度总供给预计下降约 1,100 万吨，主要因去 除库存量 ...

2025 年 12 月 08 日 研 究 豆粕：美豆收跌，连粕或跟随偏弱震荡 豆一：盘面震荡 吴光静 投资咨询从业资格号：Z0011992 wuguangjing@gtht.com 【基本面跟踪】 豆粕/豆一基本面数据 | | | 收盘价 （日盘） 涨 跌 | 收盘价 （夜盘） | 涨 跌 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | DCE豆一2601 （元/吨） | 4075 -45（-1.09%） | 4081 | -7（-0.17%） | | 期 货 | DCE豆粕2605（元/吨） | 2821 -10（-0.35%） | 2819 | -9 （-0.32%） | | | CBOT大豆01 （美分/蒲） | 1105.25 -14.25（-1.27%） | | | | | CBOT豆粕01 （美元/短吨） | 307.4 -3.8（-1.22%） | | n a | | | | 豆粕 | （43%） | | | | | 3010～3070， 较昨持平至+10； | 现货基差M2601+30/+60， 持平； | 12月M2601+20， | | | 山东 （元/吨） | ...

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the current dynamics in the soybean market, highlighting the disparity in prices between U.S. and South American soybeans, and the implications of tariffs and trade negotiations on these prices [1][3][19]. Price Disparity - The current post-tax price of U.S. soybeans is approximately 4600 RMB per ton, while South American soybeans are priced at 4000 RMB per ton, resulting in a price difference of 600 RMB per ton [3][5]. - The U.S. soybean price is further impacted by a 13% import tariff compared to a 3% tariff on South American soybeans, creating a significant cost disadvantage for U.S. products [5][7]. Import Volume and Market Impact - Recently, China purchased 160,000 tons of U.S. soybeans, which is a small fraction (less than 1.5%) of its annual import requirement of 110 million tons [7][12]. - The purchase was made by COFCO Group, and despite the small volume, it reflects China's strategic approach to trade negotiations with the U.S. [7][9]. Trade Negotiations and Market Reactions - The soybean purchase is seen as a response to U.S.-China trade talks, indicating a willingness to engage while maintaining control over the volume and timing of purchases [9][10]. - Following the announcement of the purchase, U.S. soybean futures prices fluctuated, demonstrating the sensitivity of the market to Chinese buying activity [10][12]. Future Price Trends - The article suggests that U.S. soybean production may decline due to uncertainty among farmers, while Brazil is expected to increase production, potentially stabilizing overall soybean prices [16][17]. - China's ability to source soybeans from both the U.S. and Brazil allows it to leverage pricing and maintain supply chain security [19][21]. Strategic Implications - The purchase of U.S. soybeans is framed not just as a commodity transaction but as a strategic move to enhance China's bargaining power in trade negotiations [19][21]. - The article emphasizes the importance of mutual benefits in trade, suggesting that further cooperation will depend on the U.S. addressing tariffs and technology restrictions [21].

Group 1 - The core point of the article revolves around the recent phone calls between Chinese President Xi Jinping and U.S. President Donald Trump, and between Trump and Japanese Prime Minister Fumio Kishida, highlighting the significance of these communications in the context of U.S.-China relations and regional stability [2][3][7]. - The conversation between Xi and Trump lasted approximately one hour and was described as "very positive," indicating a strategic depth, while the call with Kishida was only 25 minutes, suggesting a more transactional nature [5][6]. - Key topics discussed in the Xi-Trump call included U.S.-China trade, the Russia-Ukraine conflict, and the Taiwan issue, with a notable emphasis on Taiwan in light of Kishida's recent controversial remarks [7][8]. Group 2 - Trump acknowledged China's significant role in World War II and expressed understanding of the importance of the Taiwan issue to China, which may signal a more cautious approach from the U.S. regarding Taiwan [10][15]. - The article suggests that the U.S. may be wary of Japan's role in regional tensions, particularly in light of Kishida's provocative statements, which could jeopardize U.S.-China relations [12][16]. - Trump's recent comments and actions indicate a desire for stable U.S.-China relations, which could impact Japan's strategic positioning and its relationship with the U.S. [15][16].

Core Viewpoint - The U.S. soybean trade with China is proceeding as planned, despite previous disruptions due to tariffs and trade tensions, highlighting the importance of the Chinese market for U.S. farmers and traders [1]. Group 1: U.S.-China Soybean Trade - U.S. Treasury Secretary Becerra stated that the soybean trade between the U.S. and China is "on track" during an interview, indicating a positive outlook for this sector [1]. - A shipping schedule revealed that two vessels departed for New Orleans to load the first batch of soybeans exported to China since May, marking a significant development after months of inactivity in orders from China [1]. - The U.S. soybean industry has faced significant losses, with U.S. farmers and grain traders waiting for the resumption of exports to China, which is crucial for their livelihoods [1]. Group 2: Economic Context - Becerra addressed the impact of inflation and the trade war on American farmers, emphasizing that the soybean trade is a core issue for the Trump administration [1]. - The U.S. Soybean Association's president highlighted the urgency for strong market opportunities, noting that the current order volume from China has been zero during the harvest season [1].

Group 1 - The core viewpoint is that U.S.-China soybean trade is proceeding as planned, according to U.S. Treasury Secretary Mnuchin [1][3] - Mnuchin highlighted the impact of inflation and tariffs on American farmers, indicating that the soybean trade is a critical issue for the Trump administration [3] - Recent reports indicate that two cargo ships are set to transport the first batch of U.S. soybeans to China since May, after a prolonged period of no orders from China, resulting in significant losses for U.S. farmers [3][4] Group 2 - China's Ministry of Commerce has urged the U.S. to take positive actions to remove unreasonable tariffs to facilitate bilateral trade and enhance global economic stability [4] - U.S. and China reached a consensus on expanding agricultural trade during economic consultations held in Kuala Lumpur on October 25-26 [4] - China remains committed to maintaining an open and cooperative approach in global agricultural trade, emphasizing the importance of mutual benefits and a stable trade environment [4]

Core Insights - The article highlights a significant recovery in U.S. exports to China, particularly in soybean and sorghum shipments, indicating a potential thaw in trade relations [2][3] Group 1: Export Activity - Two cargo ships have departed for the U.S. port near New Orleans carrying the first batch of U.S. soybeans to China since May, while another ship is heading to Texas to load sorghum, marking the first shipment to China since mid-March [2] - Since late October, following progress in U.S.-China trade negotiations, Chinese buyers have booked nearly 2 million tons of U.S. soybeans and a small amount of wheat [3] - On Monday, U.S. private exporters reported the completion of a sale of 123,000 tons of soybeans to China [3] Group 2: Market Sentiment and Trade Dynamics - Despite the recent export activity, market sentiment remains pessimistic regarding Chinese purchases, as the U.S. soybean market had initially expected a quick resolution to trade issues due to Chinese demand [3] - In the first ten months of the year, China imported 71 million tons of soybeans, with Brazilian and Argentine soybeans accounting for 90% of imports in October [3] - Current shipments and purchases from China are significantly below U.S. official expectations, prompting plans for the U.S. government to announce soybean purchase agreements in the coming weeks [3] Group 3: Tariffs and Pricing - China continues to impose an additional 10% tariff on certain U.S. agricultural products, including soybeans [3] - Trade data indicates that Brazilian soybeans are priced nearly $1 per bushel cheaper than U.S. supplies for February 2026 shipments, suggesting that Chinese buyers may prefer Brazilian soybeans unless non-commercial purchases occur [3]

Core Points - The phone call between Chinese President Xi Jinping and U.S. President Donald Trump lasted for one hour and covered topics such as China-U.S. trade, the Russia-Ukraine conflict, and Taiwan [1] - Trump described the call as "very good" and mentioned discussions on soybean and other agricultural product purchases, as well as efforts to curb illegal fentanyl trafficking [1] - Trump announced plans to visit China in April next year and expressed optimism about the strengthening relationship between the two countries [1] Summary by Categories Trade Relations - The discussion included agricultural purchases, specifically mentioning soybeans and other products [1] - There has been "significant progress" in ensuring the relevance and accuracy of bilateral agreements since the successful meeting in South Korea [1] Geopolitical Issues - The call addressed the ongoing Russia-Ukraine conflict and the situation in Taiwan, indicating a broad range of geopolitical concerns [1] Future Engagement - Trump plans to visit China in April 2024, signaling ongoing diplomatic engagement [1]