长江期货粕类油脂月报 2025-10-09 长江期货股份有限公司交易咨询业务资格：鄂证监期货字[2014]1号 【产业服务总部 | 饲料养殖团队】 研 究 员：叶 天 执业编号:F03089203 投资咨询号:Z0020750 01 豆粕：贸易预期改善，价格偏弱运行 02 油脂：短期跟随外盘补涨，中长期偏强对待 目 录 01 豆粕：贸易预期改善，价格偏弱运行 01 豆粕：贸易预期改善，价格偏弱运行 资料来源：同花顺 长江期货饲料养殖中心 ◆ 期现端：截止9月30日，华东现货报价2890元/吨，月度报价下跌80元/吨；M2601合约收盘至2928元/吨，月度下跌127元/吨；基差报价01-40 元/吨，基差价格上涨50元/吨。月度受中美贸易预期改善以及阿根廷大豆出口税取消影响，美豆承压下行；国内进口成本回落叠加供应预期改 善，价格大幅下跌，现货受制于供应压力，表现持续偏弱。 ◆ 供应端：USDA9月供需报告上调美豆种植面积至8110万英亩，单产下调至53.5蒲/英亩，结转库存上调至3亿蒲，供需边际转松，但美豆库销比 6.89%，供需收紧趋势不变。巴西今年进入播种阶段，受3-5价差利润丰厚，农民加快种植，截至9月 ...

| 期货价格(主力日收盘) | 单位 | 最新 | 前一日 | 涨跌 | 涨跌幅 | 周趋势图 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 豆粕 | 元/吨 | 2928 | 2933 | -2 | -0. 17% | | | 现货价格 | 单位 | 最新 | 前一日 | 涨跌 | 涨跌幅 | 周趋势图 | | 全国均价 | 元/吨 | 3018. 57 | 3014. 29 | 4. 28 | 0. 14% | | | 张家港 | 元/吨 | 2940 | 2940 | 0 | 0. 00% | | | 杂粕现货均价 | 单位 | 最新 | 前一日 | 涨跌 | 涨跌幅 | 周趋势图 | | 花生粕 | 元/吨 | 3287.5 | 3287.5 | 0 | 0. 00% | | | 葵花粕 | 元/吨 | 2207.5 | 2213. 75 | -6. 25 | -0. 28% | | | 芝麻粕 | 元/吨 | 3575 | 3625 | -50 | -1. 38% | | | 棕榈粕 | 元/吨 | 1433. 33 | 1433. 33 | 0 | ...

| 业期现日报 HI HE | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 投资咨询业务资格:证监许可 [2011] 1292号 2025年10月9日 | | 十洋族 | | Z0019938 | | 田温 | | | | | | 9月30日 | 9月29日 | | 涨跌 | 旅鉄幅 | | 现价 江苏一级 8380 | 8400 | | -20 | -0.24% | | 期价 Y2601 8140 | 8150 | | -10 | -0.12% | | 墓差 Y2601 240 | 250 | | -10 | -4.00% | | 现货墓差报价 江苏1月 01+230 | 01+230 | | 0 | = | | 仓单 25534 | 25534 | | 0 | 0.00% | | 棕榈油 | | | | | | 9月30日 | 9月29日 | | 旅鉄 | 旅跌幅 | | 现价 广东24度 9060 | 9110 | | -50 | -0.55% | | 期价 P2601 9228 | 9234 | | -6 | -0.06% | | 墓差 P2601 -168 | ...

| 业期现日报 HI HE | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 投资咨询业务资格:证监许可 [2011] 1292号 2025年10月9日 | | 十洋族 | | Z0019938 | | 田温 | | | | | | 9月30日 | 9月29日 | | 涨跌 | 旅鉄幅 | | 现价 江苏一级 8380 | 8400 | | -20 | -0.24% | | 期价 Y2601 8140 | 8150 | | -10 | -0.12% | | 墓差 Y2601 240 | 250 | | -10 | -4.00% | | 现货墓差报价 江苏1月 01+230 | 01+230 | | 0 | = | | 仓单 25534 | 25534 | | 0 | 0.00% | | 棕榈油 | | | | | | 9月30日 | 9月29日 | | 旅鉄 | 旅跌幅 | | 现价 广东24度 9060 | 9110 | | -50 | -0.55% | | 期价 P2601 9228 | 9234 | | -6 | -0.06% | | 墓差 P2601 -168 | ...

这一连串操作，多半就是想换回民众的目光，别让大家只盯着政府关门那点破事。选举近了，白宫气氛跟锅里炸油条似的，谁都怕自家位子不保。特朗普急 着找个新话题，好绕开和民主党的僵局。 可问题是，中方会为这场戏捧场吗？大概率是没戏。双方真正关心的东西根本就不一样中方想聊的是大格局，包括两国关系、关税协议、台湾问题；特朗普 却执着于一粒豆，谈判双方一南一北，谁跟谁都对不上话。 10月初，美国政府一停摆，压力可就像秋风扫落叶似的，朝着政客们扑面而来。这阵子，谁都不好过，连特朗普在网上的态度都变了不少。密歇根州的州长 惠特默，前脚刚到多伦多，话匣子一开就把中美贸易摆上桌，话里话外都是冲着特朗普来的。她直言，这些关税政策简直一锅端，不光对中国动手，还连累 了美国最亲的邻居加拿大。人家还说了，冲着加拿大硬刚，最后折腾的其实是美国自己，让中国捡了便宜。 州长埋怨归埋怨，特朗普这时候也没闲着。最近美国媒体一通批斗，他立马在社交平台上发声，摆出一副豆农守护者的形象，说什么中国不买美国大豆，让 美国农民吃了苦头，他绝不坐视不管。还宣称要把关税的钱割出一块专门补贴豆农，等着下月见韩国领导人的时候，也会要求中方按照协议多买点自家大 豆，帮农 ...

除了民主党，特朗普看着美国媒体和舆论对他强烈的指责，他又开始转移注意力了。10月1日特朗普在 社交平台发文，称他充分的理解美国豆农的处境，中国仅仅出于谈判的目的为了给施压，不购买美国大 豆，所以美国的农民正在受苦，他不允许这种事情发生将从关税谈判中拿出一部分钱补贴美国豆农。同 时他还要在四周后的韩国的会面中和中方谈判要求中方执行购买美国大豆的协议，缓解美国豆农的困 境。 看完特朗普的这到发言，真的是让人无语了，他将自己塑造成一个拯救豆农的大英雄，并将美国豆农遭 遇的困境归结到中国人的身上。也真的是让人无语了。 果然，美国政府关门后，造成的损失，让美国政客承受不了了，特朗普本人也承受不了了，都开始甩 了。10月1日，美国密歇根州民主党籍州长格雷琴·惠特默在加拿大多伦多市发表讲话，打中国牌，他指 责特朗普的关税一竿子打翻了一船人，尤其是向加拿大这样的传统盟友， 她认为特朗普不应该对加拿大的强硬和"侮辱"他们，这样做不仅"不明智、不必要"，且"不合理和无 益"。 并且告诫特朗普和传统盟友闹翻。这样做得利的只有中国。 首先，美国豆农的困境不是由中国造成的，而是特朗普不遵守中美双方贸易原则，并且在美国媒体一而 再再而三 ...

中国驻美使馆9月29日晚举行庆祝中华人民共和国成立76周年招待会，美国政府及各界友好人士等700多 人出席。 谢锋表示，中美要深化利益融合，做相互成就的同行者。打击非法移民、芬太尼、电信诈骗、金融犯 罪，开展癌症防治、传染性疾病和人工智能合作，这些完全可以成为双方合作亮点和增长点。 （文章来源：新华社） 中国驻美国大使谢锋9月29日晚在中国驻美使馆国庆招待会上表示，中美要拉长合作清单，做大合作蛋 糕，实现双赢多赢。 谢锋强调，台湾问题事关中美关系的政治基础，处理不好可能引发中美冲突对抗，美方务必慎之又慎， 恪守一个中国原则和中美三个联合公报，停止散布"台湾地位未定"谬论，不得挑战包括联大第2758号决 议在内的国际社会共识，不能踩线越界。 谢锋说，中美拥有广泛共同利益、巨大合作空间。中美贸易额从1979年的不足25亿美元跃升至2024年的 近6883亿美元，展现出强大韧性和内生动力。 谢锋说，继对美国开放240小时过境免签后，"中国领事"App签证功能即将在美上线。他邀请美国朋友 来一场"说走就走"的中国行，也希望美方相向而行，为两国人民来往交流创造便利条件。 谢锋指出，两国经贸会谈取得积极进展表明，平等协商 ...

| 品种 | 核心观点 | 主要逻辑 | | --- | --- | --- | | 美豆本周优良率环比下降，但收获开启，利多支撑不足。本周豆粕库存环比增加， | | | | 豆粕 | | 国内短期供应充足。前日豆粕整理，短线反弹对待，节前看多追多操作需谨慎。由 | | ★ | 短线下跌 | 于中美贸易关税问题，豆粕持续下行空间预计暂有限。假期关注 9 月底美豆季度库 | | 存数据，美生柴及美豆收获季下中美贸易进展。 | | | | 菜粕 | | 贸易政策及高库存导致菜粕多空因素交织，区间行情对待。中方延期对加籽的反倾 | | 调查时间，显示中加贸易谈判仍需时日，但考虑到中澳菜籽贸易流通，利多程度有 | 短线下跌 | | | ★ | | 限。菜粕走势暂以跟随豆粕趋势为主，关注中加贸易进展。 | | 美生柴政策变数频发，拖累棕榈油调整，考虑美豆油端近期利空因素较多，或抑制 | | | | 棕榈油 | 短线延续调整 | 本月棕榈油表现。此外，市场预计马棕榈油 9 月将继续累库，或抑制双节前表现。 | | ★ | | 短期偏弱震荡行情对待。关注马棕榈油本月出口情况以及美豆油端表现。 | | 豆油 | 短线延续调整 ...

Group 1: Report Overview - The report is the Guotai Junan Futures Research Weekly Report - Agricultural Products dated September 28, 2025, covering multiple agricultural product futures including palm oil, soybean oil, soybean meal, soybean, corn, sugar, cotton, and live pigs [1][2] Group 2: Investment Ratings - No investment ratings for the industries are provided in the report Group 3: Core Views Palm Oil - The supply - driven price increase is difficult to continue. The European demand support may not end soon, but the demand side is hard to provide further stimulation. The combined inventory of Indonesia and Malaysia may accumulate until October and then slowly decline. There may be hidden inventories in Indonesia until the end of the year, and the price may fluctuate until the end of the year [6][8] Soybean Oil - The policy of US soybean oil may be postponed to next year. Before the policy is implemented, it will mainly fluctuate in the range of 50 - 56 cents/pound. Domestic soybean oil has no independent driving force and will mainly follow the trend of the oil and fat sector [9] Soybean Meal and Soybean - It is expected that the prices of soybean meal and soybean futures will fluctuate. It is necessary to avoid risks during the National Day holiday. For soybean meal, pay attention to trade events and fundamental data; for soybean, the market expects policy support [20][25] Corn - The corn market shows a pattern of near - strong and far - weak. The price may rebound in the short term but is expected to decline after the National Day. It is advisable to short at high prices [33][37] Sugar - The sugar market has a weak basis. Internationally, it will mainly be in low - level consolidation; domestically, the basis is bearish [59][61] Cotton - It is expected that the cost of new cotton will continue to dominate the futures price trend. Before the National Day, the Zhengzhou cotton futures will maintain a weak and volatile trend, and after the holiday, it will be mainly determined by the new cotton cost [86][102] Group 4: Summary by Commodity Palm Oil - **Last Week**: After Argentina announced zero - tariff exports of oil and meal, the palm oil 01 contract fell 1.11% last week [5] - **This Week**: European demand support continues, but the demand side lacks stimulation. The combined inventory of Indonesia and Malaysia may accumulate until October. The price may fluctuate until the end of the year [6][8] Soybean Oil - **Last Week**: After Argentina announced zero - tariff exports of oil and meal, the soybean oil 01 contract fell 2.09% last week [5] - **This Week**: The policy of US soybean oil may be postponed. Before the policy is implemented, it will mainly fluctuate in the range of 50 - 56 cents/pound. Domestic soybean oil has no independent driving force [9] Soybean Meal and Soybean - **Last Week**: The price of US soybeans was weak. The domestic soybean meal price was weak, and the soybean price was strong. The net sales of US soybeans decreased week - on - week, and the excellent - good rate decreased [20] - **This Week**: It is expected that the prices of soybean meal and soybean futures will fluctuate. For soybean meal, avoid trade event risks; for soybean, the market expects policy support [25] Corn - **Market Review**: The spot price of corn rebounded last week. The futures price first fell and then rose. The basis remained flat [33][34] - **Market Outlook**: CBOT corn fell, wheat prices rose, corn starch inventory decreased. The price may rebound in the short term but is expected to decline after the National Day [34][37] Sugar - **This Week's Market Review**: Internationally, the price of New York raw sugar rose, and the net long position of funds decreased significantly. Domestically, the spot price of sugar in Guangxi decreased, and the basis of the main contract decreased significantly [59][60] - **Next Week's Market Outlook**: Internationally, it will be in low - level consolidation; domestically, the basis is bearish [61] Cotton - **Market Data**: ICE cotton was weak, and domestic cotton futures continued to decline [86][89] - **Fundamentals**: Internationally, the export sales data of US cotton was poor, and the situation in other countries varied. Domestically, the new cotton was expected to be abundant, and the cost was uncertain. The downstream situation was average [90][97] - **Operation Suggestion**: ICE cotton may maintain low - level consolidation. Before the National Day, Zhengzhou cotton futures will be weakly volatile, and after the holiday, the price will be mainly determined by the new cotton cost [102]

Core Viewpoint - The ongoing trade tensions between the US and China, characterized by tariffs and export controls, have not hindered the growth of trade between the two nations, with China's exports to the US increasing by 22.7% in the first eight months of the year [1][2]. Group 1: Trade Dynamics - Despite tariffs, China's exports to the US have shown resilience, with a reported growth of 30.3% in the first eight months of the year for certain sectors [2]. - Since the imposition of tariffs in July 2018, the overall trade volume between the US and China has generally been on an upward trend, with a notable increase of 8.8% in 2020 [2][11]. - The demand for "Made in China" products remains strong in the US, as evidenced by consumer experiences during the pandemic [4][5]. Group 2: Economic Interdependence - The economic structures of the US and China are highly complementary, with significant mutual benefits derived from trade [6][8]. - In 2020, Chinese goods accounted for 19% of total US imports, with a substantial portion of essential medical supplies sourced from China [6][8]. - The cost advantages of Chinese manufacturing, including lower labor costs and efficient supply chains, continue to attract US companies [7][10]. Group 3: Investment Trends - Despite a decline in US investment in China in certain sectors, there is a growing interest among US companies to expand their operations in China, with 85% of surveyed companies indicating no plans to relocate manufacturing outside of China [13][20]. - The influx of foreign investment into China has been robust, with significant increases from European and ASEAN countries, highlighting China's appeal as a market [13][14]. - The Chinese market's size and growth potential are key factors driving multinational companies to establish or expand their presence in the country [15][16]. Group 4: Innovation and Technology - China's commitment to technological self-reliance and innovation is evident, with increasing investments in research and development [21][23]. - The country is transitioning from a technology follower to a leader in several high-tech fields, demonstrating resilience against external pressures [24][29]. - Collaboration in technology and innovation remains crucial, as both nations benefit from shared advancements and market opportunities [26][30].