今天（11月21日）上午，不论A股还是港股，都遭遇了比较大幅度的回撤。沪指一度跌了近90点，港股 跌得更凶，尤其恒生科技指数，跌幅一度超过3%。 如果从10月初的高点算起，恒生科技指数累计最大跌幅达到了20%。这可以说是超跌的市况了，下周能 不能反弹，我不敢下定论，但现在的市场情绪，已经达到或接近冰点。 简单分析一下，为什么港股最近跌那么厉害。 这一波回落，大致分为三个阶段。 打开百度APP畅享高清图片 第一阶段，从10月2日阶段高点，快速下跌到10月17日，恒生科技指数的阶段跌幅约为15%。这一波回 落，主要是前期市场情绪高涨之后技术修复。当然，期间肯定有外部环境因素在催化，但市场层面，我 认为还是正常的获利回吐。 第二阶段，是10月18日到11月13日，这是一个反复震荡，反复确认支撑位的筑底过程。 还有另一部分投资者，前期的仓位本来就不重，他们还有多余的"子弹"，那么此时的港股，或许已经等 到了抄底的机会。而且现阶段，抄底的资金并不少。 谁在抄底？首先是南向资金。刚刚说的第三阶段的杀跌过程中，南向资金每天都在大规模净买入港股。 其中，11月14日净买入128亿港元，昨天净买入近160亿港元。这些都是真金白 ...

三是中国资产的吸引力持续提升。港股市场作为中国优质企业的重要上市平台，集中了一大批优质成长 股与价值股。随着中国经济复苏尤其高科技产业不断创新突破，无论是海外资金还是内地资金都希望积 极参与到中国经济，共享中国经济高质量发展尤其科技发展的投资红利。 港股投资热情高涨，助推港股基金规模持续扩大。Wind数据显示，截至三季度末，港股基金规模明显 扩张，突破万亿元人民币。港股基金规模快速增长的核心驱动因素是什么？我们来看长城基金国际业务 部副总经理曲少杰的解读。 曲少杰表示，港股基金规模持续增长的核心驱动力主要体现在以下三个方面： 一是港股市场显著的"估值洼地"效应。当前港股估值相对偏低，依然处于全球资本市场低位。截至2025 年11月10日，恒生指数市盈率（TTM）为11.97倍，显著低于德国DAX（18.44倍）、英国富时100 （20.23倍）等全球主要股指。同时，股息率达3.05%，较标普500（1.11%）更具吸引力。这种估值优势 有望吸引资金持续流入。 二是港股的结构优势。港股市场或能同时满足防御性与成长性的双重配置需求，具有哑铃策略两端的优 势：一方面部分蓝筹高股息率股票具有6%左右的股息率，适合作为 ...

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the significant decline in the Chinese liquor industry, particularly focusing on the performance of major brands like Moutai and Wuliangye, highlighting the challenges and potential investment opportunities within the sector [4][11][12]. Industry Overview - As of Q3 2025, the liquor industry experienced a revenue decline of 6%, with a more pronounced drop of 13% when excluding Moutai. Net profit also fell by 7%, with a 18% decline when excluding Moutai [4]. - The industry is entering its first year of performance decline since the peak in July 2021, with Q3 2025 showing a 19% revenue drop and a 22% net profit decline [4][5]. Company Performance - Moutai's revenue growth was 15.71% in 2024, but it dropped to 0.56% in Q3 2025. In contrast, Wuliangye's revenue growth fell sharply to -52.66% in Q3 2025 [5]. - The financial data indicates that the liquor industry is undergoing a significant "performance washout," marking a shift from growth to a more cyclical and dividend-focused investment approach [11][12]. Market Sentiment - Despite the poor performance of Wuliangye's Q3 report, the stock price did not react negatively, suggesting that the market still favors the liquor sector, viewing the report as a sign of proactive adjustments by companies [6]. - Investors are increasingly looking at the liquor sector as a "valuation pit" with high safety margins, especially after a prolonged period of declining valuations [7]. Pricing and Inventory Dynamics - The article notes that the pricing of high-end liquor products has been under pressure, with Moutai's price dropping by approximately 600 yuan annually for two consecutive years [19]. - Inventory levels are not significantly rising, but the structure and distribution of inventory are concerning, as sluggish sales hinder effective turnover [16][17]. Future Outlook - The industry is expected to remain in a downward cycle, with no clear bottom in sight. The resilience of distribution channels is still present, but the adjustment period may be longer than anticipated [22][23]. - The overall market is experiencing a downward shift in price bands, with the main consumption range moving downwards, indicating a contraction in market size [23].

最近刷到广东那位兄弟聊潮汕生意口诀，"再穷不打工，宁可睡地板也要当老板"，看完我这做了20年财经记者、专做中长线的投资者，真是越品越有味道！ 不是说打工不好，是这股子潮汕人的生意智慧，跟我多年投资的门道简直不谋而合。 潮汕人说"算盘要打穿，人情要留香"，投资里也是这个理。中长线不是瞎捂股，得把行业逻辑、企业护城河算透，就像他们做生意看重回头客，投资也要给 优质企业成长的时间，别被短期涨跌带偏。"老街开新铺，新街开老铺"，本质就是不追热门、找估值洼地，这跟我一直强调的"冷门赛道挖真金"完全契合。 20年财经记者生涯，见多了追涨杀跌的亏家，也见证了不少守得住耐心的赢家。其实潮汕生意经和中长线投资的核心都一样：耐住性子、找对逻辑、稳扎稳 打。跟着帮主郑重，咱们不贪快钱，只赚看得懂、拿得住的稳当收益。 前两年我去潮汕采访，跟一位开特产铺的老板喝茶，他在小县城开了家挺大的店，反而在广州深圳没布局。我问他为啥反着来，他笑着说"小地方开大店， 竞争少还能攒住老客"，这话一下戳中我了。就像我当年盯新能源赛道，别人都扎堆追短线热点，我偏沉下心研究行业政策和企业技术壁垒，熬了三年才等 到真正的爆发期，这不就是生意经里的"不跟风、 ...

Core Viewpoint - The consensus among institutions regarding the food and beverage sector is accelerating, as it becomes a core focus for reallocating investments due to its low valuation and high safety margin in the context of high-tech stock valuations and increasing differentiation in the new energy sector [1] Market Performance - On November 10, the food and beverage sector experienced a significant surge, supported by a recent explosion in trading volume for the food and beverage ETF (515170), indicating a strong willingness of institutional funds to enter the market [1] Macro Support - The food and beverage sector is benefiting from three favorable factors: stabilization of prices, a capital dividend from market rotation, and its own valuation advantages, marking the opening of an investment window that is expected to become a core investment theme in A-shares [1] ETF Overview - The food and beverage ETF (515170) tracks the CSI segmented food and beverage industry theme index, focusing on high-barrier and resilient sectors such as liquor, beverages, dairy products, and seasoning [1] - The top ten constituent stocks include major brands like "Moutai, Wuliangye, Luzhou Laojiao, and Yanghe," providing investors with a convenient way to access core assets in the "food and beverage sector" with lower investment thresholds compared to individual stocks [1]

Core Viewpoint - The report by Guosen Securities highlights an extreme divergence between "old" and "new" assets in the market, emphasizing that high growth does not necessarily equate to high investment returns, and that finding fundamentally sound valuation opportunities can lead to significant returns [1][2]. Group 1: Performance Divergence - Since 2025, "small new stocks" have significantly outperformed "old stocks," with the "small new stock" portfolio rising by 183.8% compared to just 3.9% for "old stocks" [2]. - From April 7, 2025, "small new stocks" surged over 200%, while "old stocks" only increased by 13.6% [2]. - The "small new ETF" has risen by 53.1% since 2025, while the "old ETF" has only seen a 13.1% increase [2]. Group 2: Valuation and Market Activity - As of October 24, the PE ratio for "small new" sectors like electronics and computing is at the 99th percentile since 2019, while "old" sectors like real estate and liquor are at the 56th percentile [8]. - The trading volume for "small new" sectors has increased to 33%, while "old" sectors have dropped to below 2.8%, indicating a significant divergence in market activity [8]. Group 3: Investment Strategy - The report stresses the importance of not only selecting high-quality stocks ("buy good") but also ensuring they are purchased at favorable valuations ("buy well") to achieve high returns [11]. - Historical examples illustrate that higher growth does not guarantee better returns, as seen in the comparison between IBM and New Jersey Standard Oil from 1950 to 2003 [11][12]. - The banking sector has shown resilience, with a decline of only 3.9% compared to a 31.1% drop in the overall market, highlighting the potential for finding undervalued stocks with solid fundamentals [15]. Group 4: Market Trends and Seasonal Effects - The current market is characterized by a "small new stock" era, but there are seasonal opportunities for "old stocks," particularly in real estate, liquor, and brokerage sectors [20][29]. - Historical bull markets have shown that each cycle has a leading sector that aligns with prevailing economic trends, with AI and technology being the current focus [21]. - Seasonal effects suggest that value sectors may outperform in the fourth quarter, with historical data indicating a 64% success rate for value over growth during this period [23].

Core Viewpoint - The valuation attractiveness of the Hong Kong technology sector is particularly prominent, exhibiting significant "valuation pit" characteristics [1] Valuation Comparison - As of October 27, the price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio of the Hong Kong Stock Connect Technology Index is approximately 26.58 times, compared to 43.99 times for the mainland ChiNext Index, indicating a valuation discount of about 40% for the Hong Kong technology sector [1] - The valuation levels of Hong Kong technology-related indices are also significantly lower than those of the US S&P 500 and Nasdaq indices, with the Nasdaq experiencing high valuations driven by the AI boom [1] Market Trends - The AH share premium index, which measures the price difference between A-shares and H-shares, has decreased from about 40% at the beginning of the year to the current range of 20%, indicating that the value of Hong Kong stocks is being rediscovered and revalued by the market [1] - This convergence trend suggests that the Hong Kong technology sector is at a critical stage of value reassessment, presenting a good opportunity for rational long-term investors to strategically allocate resources in this evident "valuation pit" [1] Relevant ETFs - Hong Kong Stock Connect Technology ETF (159101) covers the entire technology industry chain [1] - Hang Seng Internet ETF (513330) focuses on leading internet companies [1]

Group 1 - The Federal Reserve's announcement of interest rate cuts in September has initiated a global liquidity easing cycle, leading to a consensus among institutions to increase allocations in Hong Kong stocks, which are seen as undervalued and sensitive to global liquidity changes [1] - Since September, several Hong Kong stock-related ETFs have experienced significant inflows, indicating strong investor interest [1] - The trend of A-share companies listing in Hong Kong is gaining momentum, supported by improved policy mechanisms, increasing internationalization needs, and enhanced liquidity in the secondary market [1] Group 2 - Recent fluctuations in bank stocks are primarily driven by short-term speculative fund withdrawals and rising market risk appetite, rather than fundamental issues [3] - The fourth quarter is expected to present opportunities for bank stock valuation recovery, especially following the third quarter's adjustments, with potential inflows from various funds [3] - The investment in China's lithium battery industry is rapidly increasing, with solid-state batteries emerging as a hot investment area, indicating a significant acceleration in the industrialization process [3] Group 3 - Several provinces, including Hebei and Gansu, have introduced capacity pricing and compensation policies that provide strong economic incentives for energy storage projects [5] - The increase in renewable energy capacity has led to a significant widening of peak-valley price differences, enhancing the economic viability of energy storage projects [5] - The global demand for energy storage is expected to surge, driven by the rising penetration of renewable energy and decreasing costs of storage systems, marking the beginning of a new cycle for the sector [5] Group 4 - The Shanghai Composite Index has been stagnant for over a month, with market focus shifting from technology stocks to state-owned enterprise reforms, which are characterized by low valuations [9] - The likelihood of the Federal Reserve maintaining interest rates in October is low, with a high probability of a 25 basis point cut, indicating a potential easing of monetary policy [9] - The trend of A+H listings is expected to continue, with 11 A-share companies having completed such listings this year and over 30 more planning to do so [9]

Group 1 - Capital continues to show significant interest in Chinese assets [2] - Chinese concept stocks have shown overall strength, with Direxion's YINN ETF up 2.68% and iShares MSCI China ETF up 1.12% [3] - The Hong Kong stock market experienced a technical correction after a rapid rise, particularly after the Hang Seng Index surpassed 27,000 points [5] Group 2 - Technology stocks, which have been market leaders, showed weakness, with Kuaishou down over 3% and BYD down nearly 4% due to poor quarterly sales data [4][5] - The semiconductor sector is expected to see explosive growth in demand for storage semiconductors driven by AI server investments, entering a "super cycle" of price increases [6] - Morgan Stanley projects the global HBM market to grow from $3 billion in 2023 to $53 billion by 2027, indicating a strong outlook for the semiconductor industry [7] Group 3 - Alibaba's stock price surged, with a market capitalization exceeding HKD 3.5 trillion, reflecting positive sentiment in the market [8] - JPMorgan raised Alibaba's target price significantly to HKD 240, citing growth in cloud computing and e-commerce as key drivers [9] - The semiconductor sector's growth is closely tied to large companies' procurement orders, particularly in AI infrastructure investments [9] Group 4 - The current market rally in Hong Kong is seen as a necessary correction of extreme pessimism and undervaluation from the past three years [26][28] - The extreme undervaluation has set the stage for a recovery, with the potential for further growth if corporate earnings improve [27][30] - The future performance of the Hong Kong market will depend on the alignment of expectations and reality, particularly regarding economic data and corporate earnings [30]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the articles highlights a significant influx of global capital into China, driven by the anticipated interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve, marking a new chapter of "open profit bull" for Chinese assets [1][9] - As of the end of August, the average price-to-earnings ratio of the Chinese A-share market stands at 12.2 times, indicating a notable "valuation gap" compared to major global markets, which has historically attracted substantial capital during periods of global liquidity easing [2][3] - The current capital inflow is not solely based on attractive valuations but is significantly supported by the improving profitability of Chinese companies, with over 60% of A-share industries reporting double-digit net profit growth as of mid-2025 [2][3] Group 2 - China's financial opening has entered a new phase characterized by "institutional opening," with diversified mechanisms such as ETF connectivity and bond connect enhancing the appeal of Chinese markets to foreign capital [4][6] - Major international index providers like MSCI and FTSE Russell are increasing the inclusion factors for A-shares, necessitating that passive foreign funds gradually increase their allocations to Chinese equities [6] - The current influx of capital is marked by resilience, with sustained net buying trends and a shift in investment focus from large-cap blue chips to sectors with higher growth potential, such as technology and green energy [8] Group 3 - The dual support of institutional opening and stable currency exchange rates provides a robust foundation for Chinese assets, alleviating investor concerns about currency depreciation amidst market gains [6] - The current market dynamics suggest that the ongoing rally is not a short-term speculative bubble but rather a long-term strategic positioning based on the quality of Chinese assets and policy consensus [8] - The anticipated interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve are viewed as a new starting point for global asset revaluation, emphasizing the importance of maintaining a rational and strategic perspective towards the Chinese market [9]