成文日期: 20251009 报告周期: 日报 研究品种:生? 研究员：漆建华（从业资格号：F03099134；投资咨询从业证书号：Z0017731) 生猪期货日报 1 期货市场 1.1 合约行情 当日（20251009），期货品种生猪 lh2511 合约呈现低开低走 走势，当日收至 11595 点，较前一交易日下跌 5.88%，全日成交 5.09 万手，持仓量 5.83 万手。 数据来源:国金期货行情软件 1.2 品种价格 生猪期货各合约全部下跌,品种持仓量 258813 手,较上一交易 日增加 15400 手。 图: 生猪期货日行情表 研究咨询：028 6130 3163 邮箱：institute@gjqh.com.cn 投诉热线：4006821188 请务必阅读文末风险揭示及免责声明 图：生猪 lh2511 分时图 | 문화 | 开盘价 最高价 最低价 收盘价 રી | 结算价 涨跌 | | 変化 | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | lh2511 11,710 11,905 11,535 11,595 12,320 11,695 -725 -625 ...

| 规格 | 品牌/产 | 报价 | 报价类 | 交货地 | 交易商 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | 地 | | 型 | | | | 等级:XL;颜色:褐壳;包装:箱装; | 山东烟台 | 5.80元/公 | 市场价 | 山东省/烟台 | 山东烟台鸡蛋市 | | | | 斤 | | 市 | 场 | | 等级:XL;颜色:褐壳;包装:箱装; | 江苏盐城 | 5.60元/公 | 市场价 | 江苏省/盐城 | 江苏盐城鸡蛋市 | | | | 斤 | | 市 | 场 | | 等级:XL;颜色:褐壳;包装:箱装; | 上海 | 6.30元/公 | 市场价 | 上海 | 上海鸡蛋市场 | | | | 斤 | | | | | 等级:XL;颜色:褐壳;包装:箱装; | 福建福州 | 6.80元/公 | 市场价 | 福建省/福州 | 福建福州鸡蛋市 | | | | 斤 | | 市 | 场 | 今日主产区山东鸡蛋均价5.73元/公斤，与昨日价格持平；河北鸡蛋均价6.00元/公斤，较昨日价格下跌 0.40；广东鸡蛋均价6.67元/公斤，较昨日价格下跌0.20；北京鸡蛋均价6 ...

2021年四季度以来，国内房价开始出现拐点，市场对房地产市场的预期有所转变，房屋成交数据持续下 滑，PVC终端需求不断萎缩，价格开始持续下行。 在出口方面，印度加征反倾销税对我国PVC出口造成一定影响。2022年以来，由于内需不足，国内PVC 价格低迷，出口量有所增加。同时，印度由于城市化率上升，且其PVC需要大量进口，因此印度成为近 几年我国重要的PVC出口目的地。8月14日，印度商工部宣布对我国PVC征收122~232美元／吨反倾销 税，为期5年，不过此前市场对该消息已有预期，7月、8月"抢出口"现象明显。后期PVC出口将受到较 大冲击。 整体看，短期PVC供大于求的格局难以改变。从供应端看，国内PVC产能充足，受氯碱一体化影响，电 石法PVC生产具有一定惯性，相较其他化工品，PVC的开工率下降较慢。在这种情况下，PVC高库存问 题凸显，行业面临较大的去库压力。从需求端看，房地产行业的下行趋势短期难以逆转，且出口由于印 度加征反倾销税也存在较大的下行预期。因此，长期看，PVC价格的弱势格局难以改变。不过，短期 PVC存在反弹需求。第一，当前PVC价格处于历史低位，成本的支撑作用逐渐显现，行业有限产保价需 ...

Core Viewpoint - The recent decline in urea futures and spot prices is attributed to weak market sentiment and an oversupply situation, leading to a bearish outlook for the urea market in the short term [1][4][5]. Price Trends - On September 9, urea futures fell below the 1700 yuan/ton mark, closing at 1669 yuan/ton on September 10, a decrease of 1.01% [1]. - In the spot market, prices also declined, with small particle urea prices in major domestic production areas like Shandong and Henan ranging from 1640 to 1700 yuan/ton, while prices in the northern Xinjiang region were between 1410 and 1500 yuan/ton [3]. Market Sentiment - Market sentiment is cautious, with manufacturers having varying pressures based on their export orders. Companies with export orders maintain a firm pricing stance, while those lacking such orders are more inclined to lower prices to secure sales [3]. - Downstream enterprises are adopting a wait-and-see approach, particularly in the agricultural sector [3]. Supply and Demand Dynamics - The decline in urea prices is primarily due to weak fundamentals, with domestic urea production remaining at historically high levels despite a slight decrease in daily output. Current inventory levels are around 1.09 million tons [4]. - Agricultural demand is currently in a seasonal lull, with low purchasing activity from grassroots levels and high inventory levels at compound fertilizer companies [4][5]. Future Outlook - Urea production is expected to rebound in mid to late September, potentially reaching daily outputs of over 190,000 tons, which may exacerbate the supply situation [5]. - The market is characterized by high supply, high inventory, and weak demand, leading to a "weak reality" for the urea market. However, potential export opportunities could provide short-term support for prices [5]. - Despite the bearish sentiment, the downward price movement may be limited as the market could be nearing a bottom [5].

Supply Situation - PVC production companies are currently operating at a high capacity despite being in a loss-making state, with an operating load of 77.61% as of August 22, which is an increase of 0.84 percentage points year-on-year [2] - The average loss for domestic calcium carbide method PVC is 220 yuan/ton, compared to a profit of 200 yuan/ton in the same period last year, while the ethylene method PVC has an average loss of 580 yuan/ton, up from a loss of 190 yuan/ton year-on-year [2] - The domestic PVC weekly production is around 465,000 tons, with a demand of approximately 453,000 tons, resulting in a surplus of about 12,000 tons [2] Inventory Levels - Although PVC inventory is lower than the same period last year, there has been a significant increase in social inventory since July, with a sample data of 852,700 tons, up 5.09% week-on-week and down 6.50% year-on-year [3] - The East China region has a social inventory of 784,100 tons, up 5.33% week-on-week and down 9.91% year-on-year, while South China has 68,700 tons, up 2.46% week-on-week and up 64.69% year-on-year [3] Demand Dynamics - The real estate sector, a major downstream market for PVC, is experiencing a downturn, with a 12% year-on-year decrease in cumulative real estate development investment from January to July, and a 19.4% decline in newly started construction area [4] - The operating load for PVC pipe enterprises is at 33.61% and for profile enterprises at 37.65%, indicating a lack of significant change in downstream enterprise operations [4] Export Trends - From January to July, domestic PVC exports reached 2.6595 million tons, a year-on-year increase of 53.06% [5] - India, a key export destination, has imposed anti-dumping duties on PVC imports from China, which could diminish China's price advantage and affect future export volumes [6] - The anti-dumping tax is expected to be implemented in September, leading to a potential surge in exports in August as companies rush to fulfill orders [6] Market Outlook - The overall PVC market is characterized by an oversupply situation, with the supply side remaining robust despite poor operating conditions for producers [7] - The demand from the real estate market is unlikely to show significant improvement, and the imposition of anti-dumping duties by India may further impact export dynamics [7]

据商务部市场运行监测系统显示，市场整体供大于求，8月11日至17日，全国36个大中城市猪肉零售价 格环比下降0.5%。西部地区猪肉价格降幅居前，其中贵阳、呼和浩特、西安分别下降3.1%、0.9%和 0.6%。 ...

Group 1 - The company expects to incur a loss of up to RMB 320 million for the six months ending June 3, 2025, compared to a net loss of approximately RMB 137 million for the six months ending June 30, 2024 [1] - The losses are primarily attributed to the prolonged downturn in the Chinese real estate sector, leading to a "supply exceeds demand" situation in the construction glass market, which keeps prices low [1] - The photovoltaic industry in China continues to experience a "supply-demand mismatch," further compressing profit margins across the entire solar power value chain [1] Group 2 - Macroeconomic uncertainties, including geopolitical instability, fluctuating international trade policies, and currency exchange rate volatility, have weakened the contribution of the company's overseas production base's strong performance to overall profitability [1]

Group 1 - The company expects a loss of up to RMB 320 million for the six months ending June 3, 2025, compared to a net loss of approximately RMB 137 million for the six months ending June 30, 2024 [1] - The losses are primarily attributed to the prolonged downturn in the Chinese real estate sector, leading to an oversupply and weak demand in the construction glass market, which keeps prices low [1] - The photovoltaic industry in China continues to experience a mismatch in supply and demand, further narrowing the profit margins across the entire photovoltaic power generation value chain [1] Group 2 - Macroeconomic uncertainties, including geopolitical tensions, fluctuating international trade policies, and currency exchange rate volatility, have weakened the contribution of the company's overseas production base's strong performance to overall profitability [1]

Core Viewpoint - China Glass (03300.HK) anticipates a loss of up to RMB 320 million for the six months ending June 30, 2025, following a net loss of approximately RMB 137 million for the six months ending June 30, 2024, primarily due to ongoing challenges in the real estate and photovoltaic industries, as well as macroeconomic uncertainties [1] Industry Summary - The Chinese real estate sector continues to experience a downturn, leading to a "supply exceeds demand" situation in the construction glass market, which keeps prices at low levels [1] - The photovoltaic industry is facing a persistent "supply-demand mismatch," further compressing profit margins across the entire solar power value chain [1] - Geopolitical instability, fluctuating international trade policies, and currency exchange rate volatility are increasing macroeconomic uncertainties, which have diminished the contribution of the company's overseas production performance to overall profitability [1]

Core Insights - The report released by Renmin University of China provides a comprehensive analysis of the employment and living conditions of truck drivers in China, focusing on their demographics, income levels, consumption patterns, employment quality, social security status, and the impact of internet freight platforms and new technologies on their work and income structures [1] Group 1: Income and Employment Conditions - Truck drivers face downward pressure on income due to a persistent decline in freight rates, which is influenced by high vehicle ownership, a slowdown in transportation demand, and rising operational costs [2] - The average monthly net income of truck drivers is projected to reach 10,512 yuan by 2025, making it the highest among new employment groups, with over 90% of drivers earning between 8,001 yuan and 32,000 yuan [5] - The age distribution indicates that the majority of truck drivers are middle-aged, with those aged 30 to 49 constituting nearly 80% of the workforce [3] Group 2: Consumption Patterns - Truck drivers exhibit strong consumption capabilities, with an average monthly expenditure of 6,578 yuan, the highest among new employment groups, and significant spending on education, reflecting their commitment to family responsibilities [7] Group 3: Work Environment and Career Development - Truck drivers typically work long hours with limited rest days, averaging 3.54 days off per month, and most drive alone, indicating a high-intensity work environment [7] - The profession offers a clear career development path, with many drivers transitioning from individual transporters to roles such as fleet managers or logistics operators [9] Group 4: Digital Platform Utilization - A significant majority of truck drivers (91.82%) use digital platforms for order management, with higher platform usage correlating with increased income levels [10][14] - Drivers with strong digital skills and high platform order ratios report significantly higher average gross and net incomes, highlighting the importance of digital capabilities in the industry [14] Group 5: Organizational Participation - The report indicates that a small percentage of truck drivers are members of political organizations or labor unions, with 3.45% being Communist Party members and 8.53% having joined unions, reflecting a degree of political and organizational engagement [16]