Core Viewpoint - The domestic ethylene glycol industry has shifted from a capacity expansion phase to a deep adjustment phase of supply-demand rebalancing, characterized by "high supply, weak demand, and high inventory," leading to a downward trend in futures prices since September [1] Supply Side Summary - Domestic ethylene glycol production capacity continues to be released, with a utilization rate of 66.00% as of the week of November 13, slightly up by 0.12 percentage points [2] - The total production of ethylene glycol reached 413,700 tons during the same week, showing a slight increase of 800 tons [2] - By 2025, domestic ethylene glycol capacity is expected to exceed 29.8 million tons, with new installations like Shandong Yulong's 900,000-ton unit further increasing supply expectations [2] - Despite some facilities planning maintenance, the new capacity significantly outweighs the short-term reductions from maintenance, leading to a continued loose supply-demand balance [2] - Domestic self-sufficiency has increased, reducing the marginal impact of imports despite some overseas supply disruptions [2] Demand Side Summary - Downstream demand remains weak, with approximately 95% of ethylene glycol consumption concentrated in the polyester industry, which directly influences price trends [3] - Following the "Double Eleven" shopping festival, order follow-ups have been weak, leading to a cautious market outlook [3] - As of the week of November 13, domestic demand for ethylene glycol was 552,200 tons, down by 0.31% [3] - Port inventories have been steadily accumulating, with East China port inventory reaching 618,000 tons, up by 13,000 tons, driven by increased domestic production and insufficient downstream receiving capacity [3] Overall Market Outlook - The domestic ethylene glycol market is expected to maintain an accumulation trend, with high supply levels and weak downstream demand leading to a bearish outlook for futures prices [4]

当下，全球经济韧性、关税重构与货币政策转向成为焦点；而在中国，"十五五"规划开启以科技自立和 供需再平衡为核心的新发展阶段，内需回暖与出口韧性共同支撑增长动能。 对此，国际机构近期纷纷上调中国经济预期，认为结构性改革与产业升级将巩固长期竞争力。 近日，在2025花旗中国峰会期间，多位来自花旗的经济学家分析了对当下全球以及国内宏观经济走势的 观点。 关税高企下全球经济韧性凸显 花旗全球首席经济学家 Nathan Sheet 表示，全球经济表现出超出预期的稳健性，"IMF 和世界银行秋季 会议的基调出乎意料，今年全球经济增长率预计约为 2.7%，虽略低于去年的 2.8% 和 3% 的趋势增长 率，但仍处于合理区间"。 花旗大中华区首席经济学家余向荣将四中全会通过的"十五五"规划《建议》比作中国经济的 "新剧 本"。 他表示，"核心故事线是科技自立自强与供需再平衡，把发展新质生产力摆在突出位置，同时通过全国 大市场建设、提高居民消费率等务实举措推进经济再平衡，直接回应了市场关切"。 这一表现背后，是全球通胀的持续回落 —— 当前全球整体通胀率已降至 2% 的疫情前水平，核心通胀 虽略高但保持温和。 关税政策成为影响 ...

（原标题：花旗：全球降息潮支撑经济温和增长，预计明年中国增速约5%） 21世纪经济报道记者 吴霜 Nathan Sheet 指出，美国进口商品平均关税率已从年初的 2.5% 飙升至约 15%，"达到上世纪 30 年代以 来的最高水平"。贸易流向随之重构：过去一年美国自中国进口份额从 13% 降至 8%，而与中国台湾地 区（聚焦 AI 和半导体）、越南、墨西哥、泰国的贸易份额显著提升。其中，《美墨加协定》 （USMCA）明年有望续签，将进一步巩固墨西哥的竞争优势。 货币政策方面，全球正迎来降息周期。 Nathan Sheet 透露，"30 家主要央行中约 25 家今年实施了降息，仅两家加息"，为应对关税影响和通胀 改善，明年降息趋势将延续。具体来看，美联储因劳动力市场疲软，预计到明年年底再降息数次；欧洲 央行将再降息两次，存款利率降至 1.5%；而日本央行则因通胀稳固在 2% 目标附近，明年将加息两次 至 100 个基点。 花旗全球研究团队主管 Lucy Baldwin 提出 "无就业繁荣" 的全球新现象。 当下，全球经济韧性、关税重构与货币政策转向成为焦点；而在中国，"十五五"规划开启以科技自立和 供需再平衡 ...

Group 1 - The core viewpoint is that China's economy is expected to achieve a 5% growth target for 2025, with a similar target of around 5% for 2026, driven by the "14th Five-Year Plan" focusing on technological self-reliance and supply-demand rebalancing [1] - The "14th Five-Year Plan" emphasizes the importance of developing new productive forces and significantly improving the level of technological self-reliance, which aligns with market expectations and is seen as a key driver for future economic growth [1] - The plan also aims for a pragmatic approach to economic rebalancing, with a focus on building a national market and opposing excessive competition, while increasing household consumption rates and optimizing social security for sustainability [1] Group 2 - Preliminary estimates suggest that the pork and food cycles are likely to stabilize next year, with a recovery in service sector demand expected to lead to a rise in CPI [2] - Fiscal policy is anticipated to remain dominant and somewhat expansionary, with a projected general public budget deficit of 4% of GDP, and an increased focus on livelihood spending [2] - Structural measures are expected to be prioritized over cyclical policies to boost consumption, with a potential subsidy scale of 300 billion yuan for trade-in programs, aimed at expanding the range of applicable products and covering more rural areas [2] Group 3 - The external environment is expected to improve next year, with Chinese exports projected to maintain low single-digit positive growth despite a high base, making net exports a key driver of growth [2] - Currency fluctuations are anticipated, with a trend towards appreciation of the RMB, supported by factors such as purchasing power parity, rising trade surpluses, narrowing Sino-US interest rate differentials, and net inflows of cross-border capital [2]

Group 1: Macroeconomic Outlook - The report highlights that both the US and China are entering critical years, with global investment driven by three and a half engines: AI investment, defense spending, and industrial restructuring [1][14] - The nominal GDP growth rate is expected to recover, with a focus on domestic demand and technology as key policy areas [1][2] - The transition from old to new economic drivers in China is anticipated to gain momentum, leading to a rebalancing of supply and demand [2][11] Group 2: Policy Environment - The "15th Five-Year Plan" sets a supportive policy tone, with monetary policy expected to remain accommodative, albeit with less room than in the current year [3][15] - Fiscal policy is projected to maintain a certain level of expansion, with total tools estimated at 15.7 trillion yuan, an increase of approximately 1.2 trillion yuan from this year [3][15] - The report emphasizes the importance of structural tools and the coordination between monetary and fiscal policies to support various sectors [3][15] Group 3: Supply and Demand Dynamics - The narrative of "asset scarcity" in the bond market is expected to weaken, with a focus on the verification of corporate profits and capacity utilization [4][18] - The report notes that government bond supply is likely to increase, but market pressure will be manageable due to central bank support [4][18] - Institutional behavior is identified as a major source of market volatility, with a reduction in stable funding leading to increased market fluctuations [4][18] Group 4: Bond Market Strategy - The bond market is expected to maintain a "low interest rate + high volatility" characteristic, with the central rate likely remaining stable or slightly increasing [5][18] - The report suggests a strategy of segment trading, coupon strategies, and equity exposure as priorities over duration adjustment and credit downgrading [5][18] - The ten-year government bond yield is projected to fluctuate between 1.6% and 2.1%, with a widening of term spreads anticipated [5][18]

Core Viewpoint - The report indicates that China's economy is entering a critical period of supply-demand rebalancing, with a need for policy support to promote structural transformation and maintain stable growth [1][2]. Economic Indicators - In September, the core CPI rose by 1.0%, marking the first increase back to 1% in 19 months and showing a continuous upward trend over five months [1]. - The manufacturing PMI production index reached 51.9% in September, up 1.1 percentage points from the previous month, indicating accelerated production expansion [1]. - The industrial added value for large-scale enterprises grew by 6.5% year-on-year in September, with 36 out of 41 major industries showing positive growth, reflecting a healthy production and sales environment [1]. Export Performance - In September, China's exports increased by 8.3% year-on-year in USD terms, with electromechanical products accounting for 60.5% of total exports in the first three quarters [2]. - High-tech products such as electronic information and high-end equipment showed significant growth, highlighting the impact of China's industrial structure transformation [2]. Policy Recommendations - The report suggests prioritizing reasonable price recovery as a macro policy goal, continuing to implement consumption encouragement measures, and enhancing support for employment stability [2][3]. - It recommends considering moderate interest rate cuts in the fourth quarter to lower financing costs for businesses and suggests early implementation of fiscal policies to support local government debt management [2]. - Emphasis is placed on optimizing the business environment and supporting innovation to foster a long-term system that encourages enterprise focus and innovation [3].

Core Viewpoint - The "14th Five-Year Plan" marks a critical period for China's financial cycle and economic transformation, shifting from reliance on real estate and traditional infrastructure to a new economic development model focused on innovation, green development, coordination, openness, and sharing [2][4]. Economic Transformation - The economic development model is transitioning to rely more on new economies, with a notable decline in housing prices and a slowdown in credit growth, leading to increased downward pressure on economic growth [2][4]. - The "14th Five-Year Plan" has seen most major indicators completed ahead of schedule, including GDP growth and labor productivity [6][9]. Innovation and Technology - R&D investment has significantly increased, with total R&D expenditure reaching 3.6 trillion yuan in 2024, up 1.2 trillion yuan from the end of the "13th Five-Year Plan" [10]. - The complexity of China's economy has risen, with advancements in key technologies such as integrated circuits and artificial intelligence [12][21]. Green Development - China has made significant strides in green development, with forest coverage exceeding 25% and a notable reduction in PM2.5 levels [21][22]. - The energy structure is rapidly transforming, with non-fossil energy consumption expected to reach around 20% by 2025 [22]. Regional and Urban-Rural Coordination - The "14th Five-Year Plan" emphasizes balanced development between urban and rural areas, with significant improvements in agricultural infrastructure and rural self-development capabilities [27][28]. - Urbanization rates have increased, with the urbanization rate reaching 67% by 2024, ahead of the planned target [28][45]. High-Level Opening Up - China's exports showed resilience, with total exports reaching 3.58 trillion USD in 2024, an increase of nearly 1 trillion USD from the end of the "13th Five-Year Plan" [30][34]. - The negative list for foreign investment has been continuously reduced, with all restrictions in the manufacturing sector eliminated [38][40]. Shared Development - The "14th Five-Year Plan" prioritizes people's well-being, with a focus on reducing income and public service disparities [43][44]. - The average disposable income per capita increased from 32,200 yuan in 2020 to 41,300 yuan in 2024, reflecting a growth rate of approximately 5.8% [44][46].

Core Viewpoint - China Tianrui Cement (01252) has experienced a significant stock price increase of over 20%, currently trading at 0.455 HKD, driven by positive earnings expectations for the upcoming fiscal period [1] Company Summary - China Tianrui Cement anticipates a net profit of between RMB 55 million to RMB 75 million for the six months ending June 30, 2025, compared to a net profit of approximately RMB 28.29 million for the same period in 2024, primarily due to increased cement sales [1] - The company has reported a trading volume of 24.79 million HKD, indicating strong market interest [1] Industry Summary - The cement industry is expected to benefit from a combination of market, administrative, and legal measures aimed at addressing overcapacity, with a consensus on the need for industry self-discipline [1] - Southwest Securities highlights that ongoing infrastructure demand and urban renewal needs, along with proactive supply-side measures, are supporting stable pricing and profitability in the industry [1] - The supply-side adjustments, including staggered production, capacity replacement, and stricter carbon emissions regulations, are likely to lead to a rebalancing of supply and demand, supporting a steady increase in cement prices [1] - Predictions indicate that coal prices, which constitute the largest portion of cement clinker costs, will remain relatively low, further reducing production costs and allowing for continued recovery in profitability for the cement and concrete sectors through 2025 [1]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the articles highlights the significant impact of the suspension of mining operations at the Ningde Jiangxiawo mine on lithium supply in China, indicating a potential tightening of the lithium market and a shift towards supply-demand balance [2][3] - The Jiangxiawo mine, which has a full production capacity of approximately 100,000 tons, accounts for one-third of Jiangxi's lithium production capacity, and its closure could lead to a supply gap of several thousand tons per month in the third quarter [2][3] - The suspension is seen as a sign of stricter regulation on lithium mining in Jiangxi, which may lead to further reductions in lithium supply across the region [2] Group 2 - The solid-state battery sector is gaining attention, with the upcoming China Solid-State Battery Technology Industry Development Conference potentially catalyzing further investment in the industry [3] - Recent advancements in solid-state battery technology, including the launch of the first automotive-grade solid-state battery production line and breakthroughs in energy density, are expected to drive industry growth [3] - The valuation of the new energy vehicle sector is currently at 23.5 times, indicating over 84% room for recovery compared to the average since 2020, making it an attractive investment opportunity [4]

Macro Strategy - The report analyzes three historical cases of capacity adjustment over a century, highlighting lessons for supply-demand rebalancing, including the long-term depression in the late 19th century in Europe and the US, the 1929 Great Depression, and Japan's capacity reduction in the 1970s and 1990s [1][6]. - Key conclusions include that capacity imbalance can lead to a negative feedback loop lasting 20-30 years if not controlled, and government intervention is more effective than non-intervention in addressing such imbalances [1][6]. - Successful rebalancing requires simultaneous efforts in controlling capacity, restoring credit, and stabilizing employment, rather than relying solely on supply or demand policies [1][6]. Fixed Income - The new bond value-added tax (VAT) regulation, effective from August 8, 2025, reinstates VAT on interest income from newly issued government bonds, local government bonds, and financial bonds, while maintaining tax exemption for bonds issued before this date [2][7]. - The adjustment is expected to enhance the relative value of credit bonds, as their interest income is not subject to VAT, making them more attractive compared to government bonds and financial bonds [2][7]. - The report estimates that the yield spread between credit bonds and other interest rate bonds will narrow by approximately 10 basis points, with potential relative value increases of 5-15 basis points for proprietary trading departments and 3-10 basis points for asset management products and public funds [2][7]. Industry Analysis Hewei Electric (603063) - The company reported a revenue of 1.884 billion yuan for the first half of 2025, a year-on-year increase of 36.39%, with a net profit of 243 million yuan, up 56.79% [4][10]. - The growth is driven by the new energy control business, which generated 1.524 billion yuan in revenue, reflecting a 44.97% increase year-on-year [4][10]. - The company maintains a "buy" rating, with projected net profits of 590 million, 710 million, and 820 million yuan for 2025-2027, corresponding to P/E ratios of 31, 25, and 22 times [4][10]. Tonghui Electronics (833509) - The company achieved a revenue of 101 million yuan in the first half of 2025, a 16.81% increase year-on-year, with a net profit of 29 million yuan, up 55.40% [5][12]. - The growth is attributed to the implementation of the "old-for-new" policy and the gradual recovery of domestic industrial demand, particularly in the consumer electronics and new energy sectors [5][12]. - The report raises the net profit forecast for 2025-2027 to 71 million, 87 million, and 106 million yuan, maintaining a "buy" rating based on the company's long-term growth potential [5][12].