2026 年债市展望：度尽劫波，守候周期 20260105 摘要 2026 年或延续出清阶段，企业部门杠杆率维持高位，政府部门加杠杆， 居民部门负债压力缓解，整体风险偏好有望随新质生产力显现而回升， 并促进资产价值重估。 预计 2026 年通胀温和修复，但总体物价难有趋势性大幅改善。猪周期 或在 2026 年见底回升，能源价格供强需弱格局难改，核心通胀虽有修 复但难以支撑整体通胀大幅上升。 合理的政策组合应为财政和货币双宽松。预计 2026 年广义赤字率维持 在 10%左右水平，货币政策通过小幅降息维持名义利率低位，并运用降 准、MLF 等工具投放流动性。 名义 GDP 增速或接近归零，经济增长更多依赖实际产出提升。需通过财 政货币双宽松稳定总需求，确保资产价格上涨不伴随名义利率明显回升。 2025 年中长期流动性投放积极，预计 2026 年维持宽松。货币政策操 作框架更注重短期利率和资金利率调控，资金面和流动性运行将相对平 稳，呈现"资金的新常态"。 预计 2026 年居民中长期信贷延续回落趋势，信贷增量主要依赖政策推 动的投资需求回升，如新型政策性金融工具扩量。 在陡峭收益率曲线下推荐期限策略，大幅上行概 ...

证券研究报告：固定收益报告 发布时间：2026-01-05 研究所 分析师:梁伟超 SAC 登记编号:S1340523070001 Email:liangweichao@cnpsec.com 分析师:谢鹏 SAC 登记编号:S1340525120001 Email:xiepeng@cnpsec.com 研究助理:王一 SAC 登记编号:S1340125070001 Email:wangyi8@cnpsec.com 近期研究报告 《保险配置的久期刚性与资本约束— —2026 年展望系列八》 - 2025.12.31 固收专题 度尽劫波，守候周期 ————2026 年债券市场展望 ⚫ 债务周期：杠杆率的出清和转移仍将持续 2026 年债券市场运行的核心背景仍是债务周期"出清阶段"的延 续。居民部门债务依旧承压，政府部门继续承担加杠杆职能，宏观杠 杆率呈现"结构分化、总量稳定"的格局。在此背景下，经济与通胀修 复均以温和渐进为主，名义利率需要维持低位来配置债务周期出清， 债券收益率中枢下行空间有限，但大幅上行风险同样可控。 ⚫ 物价形势：通胀对名义增长的拖累或将归零 通胀在 2026 年大概率进入温和修复阶段。CP ...

Core Viewpoint - Vanke is facing significant financial pressure as it prepares for a bondholders meeting to discuss the extension of its "22 Vanke MTN004" bond, with market reactions indicating a decline in bond prices and stock value [1][2][4]. Group 1: Bondholder Meeting and Financial Pressure - Vanke announced a bondholders meeting scheduled for December 10 to discuss the extension of its 2022 fourth phase medium-term notes [2]. - Following the announcement, Vanke's bonds experienced a sharp decline, with "22 Vanke 02" dropping over 35% and "21 Vanke 04" falling over 30%, leading to trading halts [4]. - The company has not yet responded to the announcement regarding the bondholders meeting [4]. Group 2: Stock Performance and Shareholder Agreements - On November 26, Vanke A's stock price fell by 2.48% to 5.89 CNY per share, marking a 10-year low with a market capitalization of 70.2 billion CNY [5]. - Vanke signed a framework agreement with its largest shareholder, Shenzhen Metro Group, allowing for a maximum loan of 22 billion CNY, which is intended to cover bond principal and interest payments [5][6]. Group 3: Market Analysis and Credit Conditions - According to a report by Founder Securities, Vanke's borrowing is primarily aimed at repaying 16.522 billion CNY in bond principal and interest, with a remaining amount for 8.681 billion CNY in future payments, resulting in a funding gap of 6.391 billion CNY [6]. - The analysis indicates that Vanke is under financial strain, but the framework agreement does not imply a lack of future support from Shenzhen Metro [6]. - The market shows a structural divergence in credit recovery for leading real estate companies, with high valuations for some bonds and low valuations for others, reflecting differing expectations regarding policy impacts [7].

Group 1 - The report emphasizes maintaining duration as the year-end approaches, with a focus on medium to long-term credit varieties, particularly 4-5 year products which show marginal improvement in cost-performance despite still low spread levels [2][10][12] - The current yield range for long-term credit bonds (5 years and above) rated AA+ and above is between 2.16% and 2.66%, indicating a certain level of yield cost-performance [3][10] - The report notes that funds have significantly increased their allocation to 5-year and above credit bonds, reflecting a trend towards extending duration for yield [3][10] Group 2 - The report highlights key policies and events, including Tianjin's measures to support high-quality development of REITs, which aim to enhance capital market services for the real economy [4][19] - The upcoming revision of the "Commercial Bank M&A Loan Management Measures" is expected to broaden the scope of applicable loans and optimize loan conditions, which could facilitate mergers and acquisitions [4][19][24] - The report mentions that the National Development and Reform Commission has recommended 105 infrastructure REITs projects to the CSRC, with 83 already issued, indicating a normalization in the issuance of infrastructure REITs [4][19][24] Group 3 - The report indicates that the credit bond market has seen a majority of yields decline, with financial bonds performing better, while credit spreads have shown divergence [6][10] - The issuance scale of credit bonds this week was 269.9 billion, a decrease of 20.5 billion from the previous week, with net financing also down [7][10] - The report notes a decrease in trading activity in both the interbank and exchange markets for credit bonds, suggesting a decline in market liquidity [7][10]

Group 1: Fixed Income + Fund Tracking - The performance of fixed income + funds has shown significant volatility this year, with mixed results in October. The mixed, stock, and convertible bond funds increased by 0.16%, 0.17%, and 0.49% respectively in October [2][13] - Fixed income + funds have adjusted their growth allocation, becoming more cautious in credit strategies while slightly increasing exposure to market capitalization factors. The overall equity position remains stable, with a reduction in exposure to convertible bonds [4][18][23] - The selected fixed income + fund portfolio has outperformed the secondary bond index by 0.19% in October and by 0.54% year-to-date [5][28] Group 2: Pure Bond Fund Tracking - The mid-to-long-term pure bond fund index rose by 0.51% in October, with a year-to-date return of 0.80%. The short-term pure bond fund index increased by 0.28% in October and 1.21% year-to-date [6][36] - In terms of risk exposure, pure bond funds have increased their duration and high credit rating bond allocations, showing strong consistency in credit strategy adjustments [6][42][43] - The pure bond fund portfolio has also outperformed the mid-to-long-term pure bond fund index, with a 0.12% outperformance in October and a 0.19% excess return year-to-date [47][48]

Group 1 - The overall outlook for credit bonds in November remains optimistic, influenced by the new public fund redemption fee regulations and changes in the equity market [1][23] - The credit bond yield curve showed a downward trend in October, particularly after the central bank announced the resumption of government bond trading, leading to a better performance of credit bonds compared to interest rates [2][16] - Historical performance of credit strategies in November since 2021 indicates that most strategies have yielded positive returns, except for the negative impact seen in November 2022 due to a redemption wave [9][12] Group 2 - In October, the strategy of extending duration yielded the best returns among various credit strategies, with city investment bonds outperforming others [4][6] - The yield of 3Y AAA-rated secondary capital bonds decreased from 2.06% to 1.90% by the end of October, reflecting a strong upward trend in credit bonds [16] - The historical percentile rankings for various credit bonds indicate that there is still room for yields to decline, particularly for 5Y secondary capital bonds [22][23] Group 3 - The investment recommendation for November suggests maintaining a relatively optimistic stance on credit strategies, supported by high historical percentiles and a favorable liquidity environment [22][23] - The resumption of government bond trading and overall loose funding rates are expected to continue supporting the upward trend in credit bonds, although the depth of this trend remains to be observed [22][23] - The cost of liabilities for banks has decreased significantly, encouraging increased investment in bonds [22][23]

Group 1 - The simulated portfolio returns have rebounded this week, with most credit style portfolios outperforming interest rate style portfolios. The weekly returns for secondary ultra-long and city investment ultra-long strategies were 0.34% and 0.28% respectively, while credit style portfolios saw returns of 0.65% and 0.41% for the same strategies [2][14][15] - The recovery in returns has shifted from interest rate and medium-long duration strategies to ultra-long bond strategies. The average weekly return for credit style time deposit heavy portfolios increased by 3.6 basis points to 0.12%, the highest since August, while city investment heavy portfolios rose to 0.22%, an increase of approximately 12.1 basis points [2][16] - The average return for secondary capital bond heavy portfolios increased by nearly 20 basis points, with the secondary bond duration and mixed duration strategies showing weekly returns nearly equal to the ultra-long strategy. The secondary bond bullet strategy has shown a faster recovery, with cumulative negative returns since the third quarter narrowing to -0.36% [2][16] Group 2 - In terms of return sources, the coupon income from various strategy portfolios has declined, while the contribution from capital gains has increased. Among mainstream strategies, the coupon income for secondary bond bullet and duration strategies fell by more than 0.04 basis points, while city investment bonds and bank perpetual bonds maintained annualized coupon rates around 2.24% and 2.26% respectively [3][25] - The capital gains contribution for credit style portfolios accounted for most of the returns this week, with coupon contributions falling within the range of 5% to 30%, further compressing and increasing concentration compared to the previous week [3][25] Group 3 - Over the past four weeks, medium-long duration secondary perpetual strategies have shown cumulative returns at the forefront. The cumulative excess returns for perpetual bond duration, secondary bond bullet, and secondary bond duration strategies were 13 basis points, 11.2 basis points, and 11.1 basis points respectively [4][29] - The medium-long duration secondary perpetual bond strategy has rebounded significantly, but its volatility exceeds that of the downshift strategies. The cumulative return for the secondary bond downshift strategy reached 9.2 basis points, demonstrating both low volatility and strong recovery advantages [4][29] - From a strategy duration perspective, medium-long duration secondary perpetual bonds and ultra-long strategies exhibit stronger offensive attributes. The short-end time deposit strategy's excess returns have dropped to the lowest in three months, lacking aggressiveness in a bond bull market [4][32]

Group 1: Core Insights - The report indicates that the performance of equity-type and mixed-type fixed income plus funds has been volatile this year, with a positive performance in September, where mixed, equity, and convertible bond funds increased by 0.87%, 0.77%, and 0.15% respectively [3][14]. - The report highlights a continuous reduction in the position of convertible bond products after a prolonged period of steady growth, indicating a phase of adjustment [4][14]. - The overall risk exposure of fixed income plus funds in terms of bond duration remains stable, while there is an increase in the use of credit strategies, particularly with a notable rise in growth style exposure in equity assets [5][19][21]. Group 2: Fixed Income Plus Fund Tracking - The report outlines that a quarterly selection of 10 funds based on various metrics has been made to construct a preferred fixed income plus fund portfolio, which has outperformed the secondary bond fund index by 0.34% this year [6][27]. - The preferred portfolio's performance in September showed a slight underperformance against the secondary bond fund index by 0.22%, indicating a more stable performance overall [27]. - The report provides detailed tracking of the preferred portfolio's holdings, showcasing a diverse range of asset types and equity classifications [33][35]. Group 3: Pure Bond Fund Tracking - The pure bond fund index experienced a decline of 0.15% in September, with a year-to-date return of 0.29%, while the short-term pure bond fund index increased by 0.03% with a year-to-date increase of 0.93% [39]. - The report notes a significant adjustment in credit structure exposure for pure bond funds, with a general increase in credit bond allocation, reflecting a strong consistency in credit strategy adjustments [44]. - The preferred pure bond fund portfolio has also outperformed the medium to long-term pure bond fund index, with a slight outperformance of 0.01% in September and 0.07% year-to-date [50][56].

Group 1 - The core view of the report emphasizes that short-end sinking strategies have outperformed in September 2025, with various credit strategies yielding positive returns due to sufficient coupon income covering capital loss, although the contribution to overall returns was limited [2][3][4] - Historical performance of credit strategies in October since 2021 shows that most strategies have achieved positive returns, with a notable success rate for bullish credit positions in October [10][24] - The report suggests that in the current steep yield curve environment, increasing allocation to medium and long-term credit bonds and utilizing bond repurchase agreements to introduce leverage could significantly enhance the returns of the strategies [10][24] Group 2 - In September 2025, the market was cautious due to concerns over new public fund sales regulations, leading to a tightening of credit bond market sentiment [3][4] - The report highlights that the performance of various credit strategies in September was negatively impacted by rising interest rates, with some strategies recording capital losses exceeding 1% [3][4][5] - The anticipated liquidity support from the central bank's operations in October 2025 is expected to bolster the bullish logic for credit investments, despite potential constraints from institutional behavior and policy impacts [17][24]

Group 1 - The credit market in the first half of 2025 can be divided into four phases: a market correction, a recovery phase, a volatile market, and a continuation of market fluctuations with favorable supply-demand dynamics for credit [2][13][28] - The supply side in 2025 shows structural changes, including continued low supply of local government bonds, increasing supply of industrial bonds, and a steady issuance of technology innovation bonds [2][28] - On the demand side, public funds and other products are the main buyers of credit bonds, indicating strong market interest [2][28] Group 2 - Looking ahead to the second half of 2025, supply is expected to remain stable, and the anticipated growth in bank wealth management products will support market demand for credit [3][30] - The expansion of benchmark credit bond ETFs and technology innovation bond ETFs is expected to continue in the third quarter, contributing to market dynamics despite some ongoing debates [3][34] - The liquidity environment remains favorable for the bond market, with a focus on selective paths for credit spread compression, suggesting that concerns about significant adjustments may not be immediate [3][30]