2025 年 6 月 21 日 总量研究 商业银行大幅增持国债 ——2025 年 5 月份债券托管量数据点评 要点 1、 债券托管总量及结构 债券托管总量环比增幅有所走阔。截至 2025 年 5 月末，中债登和上清所的债券 托管量合计为 169.99 万亿元，环比净增加 2.16 万亿元，较 4 月末环比多增 0.56 万亿元。 信用债托管量总量小幅减少，其余债券托管总量均环比净增。本月（2025 年 5 月，下同）利率债托管量 115.73 万亿元，在银行间债券市场托管量中占比 68.08%，环比净增加 1.70 万亿元；信用债托管量 18.35 万亿元，占比 10.79%， 环比小幅减少 52.54 亿元；金融债券（非政策性）托管量 12.17 万亿元，占比 7.16%，环比净增加 0.22 万亿元，同业存单托管量 21.83 万亿元，占比 12.84%， 环比净增加 0.27 万亿元。 2、债券持有者结构及变动 分机构托管量环比变化： 国债托管量本月环比续增，商业银行持续增持，政策性银行持续减持； 地方债托管量本月环比续增，商业银行持续增持，政策性银行持续减持； 政金债托管量本月转变为增持，商业银行为主 ...

[Table_ReportTime] 2025 年 6 月 20 日 5 月交易盘止盈情绪升温 银行大量承接供给带来负债压力 请阅读最后一页免责声明及信息披露 http://www.cindasc.com 1 —— 2025 年 5 月债券托管数据点评 信达证券股份有限公司 CINDA SECURITIES CO.,LTD 北京市西城区宣武门西大街甲 127 号金 隅大厦 B 座 邮编：100031 请阅读最后一页免责声明及信息披露 http://www.cindasc.com 2 [➢Table_Summary] 摘要：5 月债券总托管规模环比上升 21633 亿元，较 4 月多增 5557 亿 元，主要是受到国债和政金债净融资规模大幅上升的影响，而地方债、 同业存单和信用债的托管增量环比均小幅下降。 ➢ 5 月降准降息后的止盈情绪以及政府债供给压力的抬升是影响机构行为 的重要因素。5 月上旬央行降准降息落地，尽管资金利率中枢也跟随政 策利率回落，但仍然存在一定的波动，而在长短端利差大幅压缩后，非 银机构的止盈情绪升温，叠加中旬中美贸易谈判取得积极进展，使得广 义基金与券商均大幅减持利率债，保险公司也转为减 ...

[Table_IndNameRptType]2 固定收益 点评报告 机构的持券意愿依然较强 ——5 月交易所及银行间托管数据点评 报告日期： 2025-6-19 [Table_Author] 首席分析师：颜子琦 执业证书号：S0010522030002 电话：1317532070 邮箱：yanzq@hazq.com [Table_Author] 研究助理：洪子彦 执业证书号：S0010123060036 电话：15851599909 邮箱：hongziyan@hazq.com 主要观点： ⚫[Table_Summary] 银行配债量创历年"新高"，当前机构持券意愿较强 债市二季度以来整体横盘震荡，5 月以来双降落地后利率小幅上行，10Y 国债到期收益率由 1.62%上行至 1.72%，在此过程中我们发现机构行为存 在两大特点，一是银行配置量创历年新高，二是机构整体持券意愿较强。 第一，银行 5 月配债量创历年"新高"，主要原因在于供给高峰与口径变 化。5 月仍为政府债供给高峰，国债净融资超 9000 亿元，通常在政府债供 给较多时银行主动承接，加大配置实际不是"新鲜事"，可以看到，5 月 商业银行对国债的持有 ...

其 他 报 告 2025年06月06日 晨会纪要 | 国内市场 | | 涨跌幅（%） | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 指数 | 收盘 | 1日 | 上周 | | 上证综合指数 | 3384 | 0.23 | -0.03 | | 深证成份指数 | 10204 | 0.58 | -0.91 | | 沪深300指数 | 3878 | 0.23 | -1.08 | | 创业板指数 | 2049 | 1.17 | -1.40 | | 上证国债指数 | 225 | -0.01 | -0.04 | | 上证基金指数 | 6915 | 0.06 | -0.04 | | | | 资料来源:同花顺iFinD | | 今日重点推荐： 【平安证券】债券月报*2025年4月机构行为思考：流动性环境转 好，新增专项债供给偏慢*20250605 研究分析师 : 刘璐 投资咨询资格编号 : S1060519060001 研究助理 : 王佳萌 一般证券从业资格编号 : S1060123070024 核心观点 : 25年4月债券托管规模保持较快增长。2025年4月，债券托管余额同比 增速为15.5%，较3月上升0 ...

核 心 观 点 5月以来，随着政策利率下调，资金面进一步转松，但降准落地后资金利率反而上行。那么，6月政府债供给 多少？流动性缺口有多大？资金面将趋紧或者更松？ 宽松落地，市场利率怎么走？ 资金利率方面 ， 5月资金利率延续下行，从节奏来看，降准降息等一揽子金融 政策发布后，资金利率快速下行，而在5月15日降准落地后，资金面反而趋于收敛，资金利率中枢并未进一 步下行。 央行操作方面， 下旬开始逆回购转为小额净投放，同时MLF超额续作，月中落地的降准也向市场 投放1万亿元左右的流动性。 长债利率方面， 随着降准降息落地，长端利率演绎利好出尽的行情，此外，随 着关税政策缓和，市场对于基本面预期有所上修，债市有所走弱。 债券托管方面， 4月债券托管规模环比增 速放缓，分券种看，利率债托管环比增量收缩，其中地方债继续贡献主要增量；分机构看，广义基金增持规 模有所下降，商业银行托管规模环比增量扩大。 特别国债启动，供给压力多大？ 国债方面， 6月将发行6期附息国债、7期贴现国债和2只储蓄国债，此外， 还将续发3只超长期特别国债和新发1只中央金融机构注资特别国债，我们预计6月国债或将发行1.38万亿元， 净融资规模在49 ...

点击注册小程序 查看完整报告 特别申明： 本订阅号中所涉及的证券研究信息由光大证券研究所编写，仅面向光大证券专业投资者客户，用作新媒体形势下研究 信息和研究观点的沟通交流。非光大证券专业投资者客户，请勿订阅、接收或使用本订阅号中的任何信息。本订阅号 难以设置访问权限，若给您造成不便，敬请谅解。光大证券研究所不会因关注、收到或阅读本订阅号推送内容而视相 关人员为光大证券的客户。 今 日 聚 焦 【固收】政策行托管量环比续减，其余机构增持债券——2025年4月份债券托管量数据点评 本月债券托管总量环比少增，各类型债券托管总量均环比净增；除政策性银行的债券托管量表现为大幅减 持外，其他债券市场主要机构均表现为增持；待购回债券余额季节性减少，债市杠杆率环比下降。 （张旭） 2025-05-21 您可点击今日推送内容的第1条查看 【石化化工交运】IEA、EIA上调原油需求预期，关注OPEC+增产进展——行业日报第67期（20250521）先 IEA在5月月报将2025年全球原油需求预期上调1万桶/日至74万桶/日，但IEA依然强调贸易不确定性、经济 增长放缓和电动汽车销量增长对原油需求的抑制效应。IEA预计，尽管近期经 ...

以下文章来源于债券人 ，作者光大证券固收研究 债券人 . 唯有进行扎实的基本面研究，方能行稳致远。 点击注册小程序 查看完整报告 特别申明： 本订阅号中所涉及的证券研究信息由光大证券研究所编写，仅面向光大证券专业投资者客户，用作新媒体形势下研究 信息和研究观点的沟通交流。非光大证券专业投资者客户，请勿订阅、接收或使用本订阅号中的任何信息。本订阅号 难以设置访问权限，若给您造成不便，敬请谅解。光大证券研究所不会因关注、收到或阅读本订阅号推送内容而视相 关人员为光大证券的客户。 报告摘要 1、债券托管总量及结构 债券托管总量环比少增。截至2025年4月末，中债登和上清所的债券托管量合计为167.82万亿元，环比净增加 1.61万亿元，较3月环比少增1.05万亿元。 各类型债券托管总量均环比净增。本月（2025年4月，下同）利率债托管量114.03万亿元，在银行间债券市场 托管量中占比67.95%，环比净增加0.99万亿元；信用债托管量18.35万亿元，占比10.94%，环比净增加0.07万亿 元；金融债券（非政策性）托管量11.95万亿元，占比7.12%，环比净增加0.18万亿元，同业存单托管量21.56万 亿元 ...

交易盘增持利率债保险减持金融债 非银杠杆继续抬升但仍处低位 —— 2025 年 4 月债券托管数据点评 [Table_ReportTime] 2025 年 5 月 22 日 请阅读最后一页免责声明及信息披露 http://www.cindasc.com 1 证券研究报告 债券研究 [T专题able_ReportType] 报告 | ] [Table_A 李一爽 uthor固定收益 首席分析师 | | | --- | --- | | 执业编号：S1500520050002 | | | 联系电话：+86 18817583889 | | | 箱： liyishuang@cindasc.com | 邮 | [交易盘增持利率 Table_Title] 债保险减持金融债 非银杠杆继续抬升但仍处低位 [Table_ReportDate] 2025 年 5 月 22 日 信达证券股份有限公司 CINDA SECURITIES CO.,LTD 北京市西城区宣武门西大街甲 127 号金 隅大厦 B 座 邮编：100031 请阅读最后一页免责声明及信息披露 http://www.cindasc.com 2 [➢Table_Summ ...

2025 年 5 月 21 日 总量研究 政策行托管量环比续减，其余机构增持债券 ——2025 年 4 月份债券托管量数据点评 要点 1、 债券托管总量及结构 债券托管总量环比少增。截至 2025 年 4 月末，中债登和上清所的债券托管量合 计为 167.82 万亿元，环比净增加 1.61 万亿元，较 3 月环比少增 1.05 万亿元。 各类型债券托管总量均环比净增。本月（2025 年 4 月，下同）利率债托管量 114.03 万亿元，在银行间债券市场托管量中占比 67.95%，环比净增加 0.99 万亿元； 信用债托管量 18.35 万亿元，占比 10.94%，环比净增加 0.07 万亿元；金融债 券（非政策性）托管量 11.95 万亿元，占比 7.12%，环比净增加 0.18 万亿元， 同业存单托管量 21.56 万亿元，占比 12.85%，环比净增加 0.38 万亿元。 2、债券持有者结构及变动 分机构托管量环比变化： 本月除政策性银行的债券托管量表现为大幅减持外，其他债券市场主要机构均表 现为增持，具体来看： 政策性银行增持同业存单和主要信用品，大幅减持主要利率品； 商业银行持续增持主要利率品和信用品 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided in the content. 2. Core View of the Report In March 2025, the leverage ratio of the inter - bank bond market increased month - on - month but was slightly lower than the historical average. The total bond custody scale of China Central Depository & Clearing Co., Ltd. (CCDC) and Shanghai Clearing House increased. Different institutions had different investment preferences for various bond types, with commercial banks significantly increasing their allocation of interest - rate bonds and broad - based funds increasing their allocation of inter - bank certificates of deposit [1][2][4]. 3. Summary According to the Directory 3.1 Bank - Inter Leverage Ratio: Up Month - on - Month, Lower than the Same Period in Previous Years At the end of March, the inter - bank bond market leverage ratio was 107.03%, up 0.8 pct from 106.23% at the end of the previous month, and slightly lower than the historical average [1][12]. 3.2 Custody Data Overview In March 2025, the total bond custody scale of CCDC and Shanghai Clearing House was 166.22 trillion yuan, a month - on - month increase of 2655.6 billion yuan. CCDC's custody scale increased by 1308.9 billion yuan, and Shanghai Clearing House's increased by 1346.7 billion yuan. Treasury bonds, local government bonds, policy - bank bonds, medium - term notes, and inter - bank certificates of deposit contributed to the increase, while enterprise bonds, short - term financing bonds, and private placement notes contributed to the decrease [2][15]. 3.3 By Bond Type: Net Financing of Treasury Bonds and Inter - bank Certificates of Deposit Increased, Credit Bonds Had Net Repayment - **Interest - rate Bonds**: In March 2025, the total custody scale of major interest - rate bonds was 109.14 trillion yuan, a month - on - month increase of 1584.1 billion yuan. Commercial banks and broad - based funds were the main buyers, increasing their holdings by 814.8 billion yuan and 401.4 billion yuan respectively. For treasury bonds, commercial banks were the main buyers; for policy - bank bonds, broad - based funds were the main buyers; for local government bonds, commercial banks and broad - based funds increased their holdings [3][17][48]. - **Credit Bonds**: The total custody scale of major credit bonds was 15.54 trillion yuan, a month - on - month decrease of 1.01 billion yuan. Broad - based funds and commercial banks increased their holdings. For enterprise bonds, all institutions reduced their holdings; for medium - term notes, commercial banks were the main buyers; for short - term financing bonds, broad - based funds were the main buyers; for ultra - short - term financing bonds, multiple institutions reduced their holdings [3][29][48]. - **Inter - bank Certificates of Deposit**: The custody scale was 21.18 trillion yuan, a month - on - month increase of 1115 billion yuan. Broad - based funds were the main buyers, increasing their holdings by 1306.6 billion yuan, while commercial banks were the main sellers, reducing their holdings by 264.8 billion yuan [3][45][48]. 3.4 By Institution: Commercial Banks Significantly Increased Allocation of Interest - rate Bonds, Broad - based Funds Increased Allocation of Inter - bank Certificates of Deposit - **Commercial Banks**: The custody scale of major bonds was 80.04 trillion yuan, a month - on - month increase of 561.1 billion yuan. They increased their holdings of interest - rate bonds and credit bonds by 814.8 billion yuan and 11.1 billion yuan respectively, and reduced their holdings of inter - bank certificates of deposit by 264.8 billion yuan. They increased their allocation of treasury bonds and local government bonds in interest - rate bonds and medium - term notes in credit bonds [4][49]. - **Broad - based Funds**: The custody scale of major bonds was 35.53 trillion yuan, a month - on - month increase of 1729.7 billion yuan. They increased their holdings of interest - rate bonds, credit bonds, and inter - bank certificates of deposit by 401.4 billion yuan, 21.8 billion yuan, and 1306.6 billion yuan respectively. They increased their allocation of local government bonds, treasury bonds, and policy - bank bonds in interest - rate bonds and medium - term notes and short - term financing bonds in credit bonds [4][49]. - **Overseas Institutions**: The custody scale of major bonds was 4.20 trillion yuan, a month - on - month increase of 146.5 billion yuan. They increased their holdings of interest - rate bonds, inter - bank certificates of deposit, and credit bonds by 3.2 billion yuan, 141.1 billion yuan, and 2.2 billion yuan respectively. They mainly increased their allocation of treasury bonds in interest - rate bonds and slightly increased their allocation of medium - term notes, short - term financing bonds, and ultra - short - term financing bonds in credit bonds [4][53]. - **Insurance Institutions**: The custody scale of major bonds was 4.03 trillion yuan, a month - on - month increase of 93.5 billion yuan. They increased their holdings of interest - rate bonds and inter - bank certificates of deposit by 93.1 billion yuan and 1.3 billion yuan respectively, and reduced their holdings of credit bonds by 1 billion yuan. They mainly increased their allocation of local government bonds and treasury bonds in interest - rate bonds and slightly reduced their allocation of medium - term notes and enterprise bonds in credit bonds [4][53]. - **Securities Companies**: The custody scale of major bonds was 2.76 trillion yuan, a month - on - month increase of 118.1 billion yuan. They increased their holdings of interest - rate bonds, credit bonds, and inter - bank certificates of deposit by 88.7 billion yuan, 3.3 billion yuan, and 26.1 billion yuan respectively. They mainly increased their allocation of treasury bonds in interest - rate bonds and increased their allocation of medium - term notes in credit bonds [4][53]. - **Credit Unions**: The custody scale of major bonds was 1.89 trillion yuan, a month - on - month decrease of 14.8 billion yuan. They increased their holdings of interest - rate bonds by 21.6 billion yuan and reduced their holdings of credit bonds and inter - bank certificates of deposit by 0.63 billion yuan and 35.8 billion yuan respectively. They increased their allocation of treasury bonds, policy - bank bonds, and local government bonds in interest - rate bonds [5][54].