Group 1: Bond Custody Total and Structure - The total bond custody increased month-on-month, reaching 178.25 trillion yuan by the end of November 2025, with a net increase of 1.48 trillion yuan compared to the previous month [4] - By category, the custody of interest rate bonds, credit bonds, and financial bonds increased, while interbank certificates of deposit saw a decrease [4] - The custody of interest rate bonds was 123.94 trillion yuan, with a net increase of 1.46 trillion yuan; credit bonds reached 19.13 trillion yuan, increasing by 0.27 trillion yuan; and financial bonds totaled 12.80 trillion yuan, up by 0.10 trillion yuan [4] Group 2: Bond Holder Structure and Changes - Among major institutions in the bond market, only securities companies and foreign institutions saw a decrease in bond custody, while other institutions reported increases [5] - Policy banks, commercial banks, and non-legal entity products increased their holdings in interest rate bonds and credit bonds, while reducing interbank certificates of deposit [5] - The custody of government bonds continued to increase, with policy banks and commercial banks consistently adding to their holdings, while securities companies significantly reduced theirs [5] Group 3: Bond Market Leverage Observation - The balance of repurchase agreements decreased month-on-month, leading to a decline in the bond market leverage ratio [6] - As of the end of November 2025, the estimated balance of repurchase agreements was 11.05 trillion yuan, down by 360.125 billion yuan, with a leverage ratio of 106.61%, a decrease of 0.29 percentage points month-on-month [6]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information about the industry investment rating is provided in the given content. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - In November 2025, the overall bond market weakened, especially the ultra - long end, and the decline in the willingness of trading desks to increase interest - rate bonds may be the core factor for the market adjustment. The adjustment of ultra - long bonds in November may be more affected by the sentiment of trading desks, with relatively limited relation to issues such as bank book interest - rate risks. [3][12] - The bond leverage ratio decreased slightly in November, with the securities company's leverage ratio rising but the product account leverage ratio falling. [4][53] 3. Summary by Related Catalogs 3.1 11 - month Interest - rate Bond Custody Increased Significantly but Certificates of Deposit Had Net Repayment, and the Bond Custody Scale Rose Slightly - In November, the total bond custody scale increased by 147.98 billion yuan month - on - month, an increase of 16.75 billion yuan compared with October. Interest - rate bond custody increments increased by nearly one trillion yuan compared with the previous month, and the custody increments of treasury bonds, local bonds, and policy - financial bonds all increased significantly. Due to the increase in the issuance scale of medium - term notes, the credit - bond custody increment also increased, and the custody scale of commercial bank bonds turned from a decline to an increase. However, the custody volume of inter - bank certificates of deposit changed from an increase of 721.4 billion yuan last month to a decrease of 385.7 billion yuan, significantly dragging down the overall bond custody scale. [3][10] 3.2 The Decline in the Willingness of Trading Desks to Increase Interest - rate Bonds May Be the Core Factor for the Market Adjustment in November 3.2.1 Generalized Funds - In November, the bond custody scale of generalized funds increased by 22.16 billion yuan month - on - month, a decrease of 82.29 billion yuan compared with the previous month. They mainly changed from increasing 77.12 billion yuan of inter - bank certificates of deposit last month to reducing 950 million yuan. In addition, they increased their holdings of financial bonds, local bonds, and medium - term notes on the Clearstream, but also increased their reduction of commercial bank bonds, policy - financial bonds, and enterprise bonds, and changed to reducing treasury bonds and inter - bank certificates of deposit. [18] 3.2.2 Securities Companies - In November, the bond custody volume of securities companies changed from an increase of 13.48 billion yuan last month to a decrease of 14.21 billion yuan, mainly due to the reduction of treasury bonds, policy - financial bonds, and financial bonds on the Clearstream, a decrease in the increase of local bonds, and an increase in the reduction of inter - bank certificates of deposit and commercial bank bonds. However, they increased their holdings of medium - term notes and credit - asset - backed securities and increased their holdings of short - term commercial paper. [26] 3.2.3 Insurance Companies - In November, the bond custody volume of insurance companies changed from a decrease of 450 million yuan last month to an increase of 2.85 billion yuan. They slightly increased their holdings of treasury bonds and inter - bank certificates of deposit and increased their holdings of financial bonds and medium - term notes on the Clearstream, but the increase in local bonds decreased, and the reduction of commercial bank bonds increased. [30] 3.2.4 Overseas Institutions - In November, the bond custody scale of overseas institutions decreased by 11.67 billion yuan month - on - month, and the decline was 6.26 billion yuan larger than the previous month. They mainly changed to reducing treasury bonds, increased their reduction of inter - bank certificates of deposit, but slightly increased their holdings of policy - financial bonds. [32] 3.2.5 Other Institutions - In November, the bond custody volume of other institutions including the central bank increased by 57.46 billion yuan month - on - month, and the increase was 21.9 billion yuan larger than the previous month. They increased their holdings of treasury bonds, changed to increasing policy - financial bonds, but the increase in local bonds decreased and changed to reducing inter - bank certificates of deposit. The structural changes in the custody data may be due to the fact that the proportion of treasury bonds in the repurchase of reverse repurchase targets increased. [37] 3.2.6 Commercial Banks - In November, the bond custody scale of commercial banks changed from a decrease of 25.14 billion yuan last month to an increase of 78.3 billion yuan. They mainly increased their holdings of local bonds and financial bonds on the Clearstream, increased their holdings of treasury bonds, policy - financial bonds, and medium - term notes, but increased their reduction of inter - bank certificates of deposit and changed to reducing short - term commercial paper and credit - asset - backed securities. If the impact of outright repurchase is considered, the banks' increase in holdings of treasury bonds and local bonds further increased. [44] 3.2.7 Credit Unions - In November, the bond custody scale of credit unions changed from a decrease of 2.06 billion yuan last month to an increase of 980 million yuan. They mainly increased their holdings of treasury bonds, increased their holdings of local bonds and financial bonds on the Clearstream, decreased their reduction of policy - financial bonds, but decreased their increase of inter - bank certificates of deposit. [46] 3.3 The Bond Leverage Ratio Decreased Slightly in November, with the Securities Company's Leverage Ratio Rising but the Product Account Leverage Ratio Falling - Affected by the increase in the bond custody scale and the decrease in the scale of institutional funds borrowed, the bond market leverage ratio decreased by 0.2 percentage points month - on - month to 107.2% in November, still at a relatively low level. [4][53] - Among them, the commercial bank's leverage ratio decreased by 0.2 percentage points month - on - month to 103.3%, and the non - bank institution's leverage ratio decreased by 0.3 percentage points month - on - month to 117.0%. In non - bank institutions, the securities company's leverage ratio increased by 11.5 percentage points month - on - month to 231.4%, reaching a new high since 2020, while the leverage ratio of insurance and non - legal person products decreased by 0.3 percentage points month - on - month to 113.7%, still at a relatively low level in the past three years. [4][53]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided in the content. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - In October 2025, the year - on - year growth rate of bond custody balance was 14.0%, 0.1 percentage points lower than that in September. The newly - added custody scale was 1.5 trillion yuan, basically the same as the same period last year. The main contributor to the year - on - year increase was inter - bank certificates of deposit, while interest - rate bonds had a negative contribution. Credit bonds also increased significantly year - on - year [3][4]. - In terms of institutions, the bond - allocation power of allocation - type institutions declined, while non - legal person products significantly increased their bond allocation. Banks, insurance and other institutions decreased their bond allocation, especially banks, while non - legal person products and securities firms increased their bond allocation [3]. - Looking ahead, it is expected that the supply of government bonds from November to December will remain at a high level, but the year - on - year growth is expected to decline. The demand in the bond market at the end of the year still has support [3]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Overall Bond Custody in October - The year - on - year growth rate of bond custody balance was 14.0%, 0.1 percentage points lower than that in September. The newly - added custody scale was 1.5 trillion yuan, basically the same as the same period last year [3][4]. 3.2 By Bond Type - Inter - bank certificates of deposit were the main contributor to the year - on - year increase in October, followed by credit bonds. Interest - rate bonds (treasury bonds + local government bonds + policy - based financial bonds) significantly decreased year - on - year, followed by financial bonds [3][9]. - The supply scale of government bonds and policy - based financial bonds decreased in October. The supply of government bonds continued to decline, with treasury bonds decreasing by about 150 billion yuan and local government bonds decreasing by about 410 billion yuan year - on - year. Policy - based financial bonds were at a low level, and financial bond financing also continued at a low level [19]. - Credit bonds increased by nearly 190 billion yuan year - on - year in October, further expanding significantly. This was due to the repair of the corporate balance sheet, the decline in corporate financing costs, and the new policy on science - innovation bonds [20]. - Inter - bank certificates of deposit financing expanded significantly in October. The central bank restarted bond - buying operations, and banks may have increased the supply of inter - bank certificates of deposit to meet credit demand [23]. 3.3 By Institution - **Banks**: Affected by the supply, after considering the net investment of 400 billion yuan in the central bank's outright reverse repurchase, banks' bond investment decreased by 680.4 billion yuan year - on - year in October. They mainly reduced their allocation of treasury bonds, policy - based financial bonds, financial bonds and credit bonds, and slightly increased their allocation of inter - bank certificates of deposit [30][33]. - **Insurance**: Insurance slightly reduced its bond allocation year - on - year in October but continued to increase its allocation of local government bonds. The proportion of its increased government bond scale to the newly - added government bond custody was about 17.5%, significantly higher than the 9.6% in the past 12 months [36]. - **Non - legal person products**: They increased their bond holding by 1.03 trillion yuan in October, with a year - on - year increase of 978.2 billion yuan. They mainly increased their allocation of inter - bank certificates of deposit, followed by credit bonds [37]. - **Foreign capital**: Foreign capital continued to reduce its bond holding in October, mainly increasing its holding of treasury bonds and reducing its holding of inter - bank certificates of deposit. The cost - performance of carry trade income was still insufficient [48]. - **Securities firms**: Securities firms increased their bond holding by 156.1 billion yuan in October, with a year - on - year increase of 131 billion yuan, mainly increasing their holding of treasury bonds and local government bonds [48]. 3.4 Outlook - **Supply**: It is expected that the supply of government bonds from November to December will remain at a high level, with a monthly supply scale exceeding 1 trillion yuan, but the year - on - year growth is expected to decline due to the high base in the same period last year [50]. - **Demand**: - **Banks**: It is expected that from November to December, banks will follow the supply, with a relatively large bond - allocation scale but a year - on - year decrease. The allocation scale is expected to be between 1 and 1.5 trillion yuan [54]. - **Insurance**: Insurance institutions may have a certain willingness to scramble for bond allocation at the end of the year. If the government bond supply from November to December is 2.3 trillion yuan, the insurance allocation scale may exceed 40 billion yuan [58]. - **Asset management accounts**: It is expected that from November to December, asset management accounts will maintain a certain intensity of bond allocation, but it may be lower than that in October when they undertook a large number of inter - bank certificates of deposit [63].

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No industry investment rating information is provided in the report. Group 2: Core Viewpoints of the Report - In October, the total bond custody scale increased by 131.24 billion yuan month - on - month, ending the two - month trend of less growth. The rebound of inter - bank certificate of deposit custody scale was the main driving force, while the custody increment of interest - rate bonds declined significantly [3][6]. - The bond market performance eased in October. Long - term interest rates showed a recovery trend, and dropped significantly after the central bank announced the restart of treasury bond trading on the 27th. Trading desks' enthusiasm for bond buying increased significantly, while the allocation willingness of allocation - type institutions declined [3][10]. - Due to the increase in institutions' borrowed funds, the bond market leverage ratio increased slightly by 0.1 pct to 107.4% in October, remaining at a relatively low level. Non - bank institutions' leverage ratio increased, but the absolute level was still not high [3][37]. Group 3: Summary by Directory 10 - month Bond Custody Increment Rebounds, and Inter - bank Certificate of Deposit Net Financing is the Main Support - The total bond custody scale increased by 131.24 billion yuan month - on - month in October, with the inter - bank certificate of deposit custody scale turning from decline to increase for the first time since June this year. The net financing scale of short - term commercial paper and medium - term notes increased, while the custody increment of interest - rate bonds decreased significantly [3][6]. - For interest - rate bonds, the custody increment of treasury bonds, local bonds, and policy - bank bonds all decreased compared with the previous month. For credit bonds, the custody increment of short - term commercial paper and medium - term notes increased, while that of enterprise bonds and PPN continued to decline [6]. The Central Bank Restarts Bond Buying, Market Sentiment Improves, and the Willingness of Trading Desks to Increase Bond Holdings is Significantly Restored - In October, the bond market performance eased. After the central bank announced the restart of treasury bond trading, long - term interest rates dropped significantly. The trading desks' enthusiasm for bond buying increased, while the allocation willingness of commercial banks and insurance companies declined [10]. - **General Funds**: The bond custody scale increased by 104.45 billion yuan month - on - month, turning to increase holdings of inter - bank certificates of deposit, medium - term notes, and short - term commercial paper, and reducing the scale of selling financial bonds [15]. - **Securities Companies**: The bond custody volume increased by 134.8 billion yuan month - on - month, reaching a new high since July 2024, mainly due to a large increase in holdings of treasury bonds and policy - bank bonds [17][19]. - **Insurance Companies**: The bond custody volume decreased by 450 million yuan month - on - month, mainly due to the reduction of holdings of treasury bonds and inter - bank certificates of deposit [22]. - **Overseas Institutions**: The bond custody scale decreased by 5.42 billion yuan month - on - month, with an increased scale of selling domestic bonds, but turning to increase holdings of treasury bonds and reduce holdings of policy - bank bonds [24][25]. - **Other Institutions**: The bond custody volume increased by 35.56 billion yuan month - on - month, with an increase in holdings of treasury bonds and certificates of deposit, and a decrease in holdings of policy - bank bonds [27]. - **Commercial Banks**: The bond custody scale decreased by 25.14 billion yuan month - on - month, mainly due to a significant decrease in the scale of increasing holdings of treasury bonds and an increase in the scale of reducing holdings of local bonds [30]. - **Credit Unions**: The bond custody scale decreased by 206 million yuan month - on - month, mainly due to the reduction of holdings of treasury bonds and policy - bank bonds [34]. In October, the Non - bank Leverage Ratio Increased Beyond Seasonality, but the Absolute Level was Still Not High - In October, the bond market leverage ratio increased by 0.1 pct to 107.4% month - on - month, remaining at a relatively low level. The non - bank institutions' leverage ratio increased by 0.3 pct to 117.2%, but the absolute level was still not high in the past three - year dimension [37]. - Among them, the securities companies' leverage ratio decreased by 3.3 pct to 219.9%, while the leverage ratio of insurance and non - legal person products increased by 0.3 pct to 114.0% [37].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided in the content. 2. Core View of the Report - In September, the total bond custody scale increased by 921.2 billion yuan month - on - month, with a slower growth compared to August, hitting the lowest level since May last year. The adjustment in the bond market was affected by the change in public - offering regulatory policies, but market sentiment towards government bonds has recovered. The bond market leverage ratio decreased month - on - month, not showing the seasonal increase seen in previous quarter - end months [2]. 3. Summary According to the Directory 3.1 9 - month Bond Custody Increment Shrinks Significantly, Net Financing of Policy Financial Bonds Drops Notably - The total bond custody scale increased by 921.2 billion yuan month - on - month in September, 584.8 billion yuan less than in August. Among them, the custody increment of policy financial bonds decreased significantly, while that of treasury bonds and local bonds decreased slightly. The custody scale of inter - bank certificates of deposit and commercial bank bonds continued to decline with an enlarged decline, and the custody increment of credit bonds increased slightly [2][5]. 3.2 Public - offering Regulatory New Rules Bring Structural Shocks, Demand for Government Bonds has Recovered - Affected by the public - offering regulatory policy changes in September, the bond market adjusted, especially for bonds with large public - offering holdings. The adjustment was mainly due to panic rather than liquidity pressure. Market sentiment recovered at the end of the month. Structurally, different institutions had different behaviors. Generalized funds reduced their holdings of credit and financial bonds, while securities firms increased their holdings. Both reduced their holdings of policy financial bonds and increased their holdings of local bonds. Commercial banks' increase in holdings decreased, while insurance institutions significantly increased their holdings of treasury bonds, and the reduction in holdings by overseas institutions decreased [2][9]. - **Generalized Funds**: The decline in the bond custody scale of generalized funds widened by 5.99 billion yuan month - on - month to 25.15 billion yuan. They reduced their holdings of more credit and financial bonds, and their relative reduction in bond allocation decreased, turning to increase the allocation of inter - bank certificates of deposit [14]. - **Securities Firms**: The bond custody volume of securities firms decreased by 353 million yuan month - on - month. They mainly reduced their holdings of policy financial bonds and increased their holdings of local bonds and medium - term notes. Their relative reduction in bond allocation increased slightly [18]. - **Insurance Companies**: The bond custody increment of insurance companies increased by 43 million yuan month - on - month to 439 million yuan. They significantly increased their holdings of treasury bonds and increased their allocation of bonds relatively [20]. - **Overseas Institutions**: The decline in the bond custody volume of overseas institutions narrowed by 551 million yuan month - on - month to 446 million yuan. They turned to increase their holdings of policy financial bonds, and their relative reduction in bond allocation decreased [24]. - **Other Institutions**: The bond custody increment of other institutions increased by 203 million yuan month - on - month to 3556 million yuan. They increased their holdings of local bonds and medium - term notes, and increased their allocation of bonds relatively [27]. - **Commercial Banks**: The bond custody increment of commercial banks decreased by 6056 million yuan month - on - month to 5945 million yuan. They mainly reduced their holdings of policy financial bonds and treasury bonds, and their relative increase in bond allocation decreased [32]. - **Credit Unions**: The bond custody increment of credit unions increased by 315 million yuan month - on - month to 419 million yuan. They increased their holdings of treasury bonds and policy financial bonds and increased their allocation of bonds relatively [38]. 3.3 The Bond Market Leverage Ratio Declined Counter - seasonally in September, and the Leverage Ratio of Generalized Funds Continued to Decline - Affected by the decline in the repurchase balance, the bond market leverage ratio decreased by 0.2 pct month - on - month to 107.3% in September, remaining at a relatively low level. The leverage ratio of commercial banks decreased by 0.2 pct to 103.6%, while that of non - bank institutions remained unchanged at 116.9%. Among them, the leverage ratio of securities companies increased by 8.2 pct to 223.3%, and that of insurance and non - legal person products decreased by 0.1 pct to 113.7% [40].

Group 1: Report Summary - The total bond custody scale in August increased by 150.6 billion yuan month-on-month, with a slower growth compared to July. The custody increments of treasury bonds and policy financial bonds rose, while the net financing scale of local bonds and credit bonds declined, and commercial bank bonds turned into net repayment. The custody scale of interbank certificates of deposit continued to decline significantly [4][7]. - In early August, the bond market oscillated and recovered, but after mid - August, sentiment weakened due to the continuous new highs of A - shares. Long - term interest rates were under pressure, while short - term rates were relatively resilient. From the perspective of institutional behavior, broad - based funds may have been affected by liability - side disturbances and reduced their bond holdings for the first time since February. Dealers also increased their holdings of interest - rate bonds. However, the承接 power of allocation - oriented investors was insufficient, which might have prevented interest rates from stabilizing in August. Notably, foreign institutions significantly narrowed their reduction of domestic bond holdings, possibly indicating an increase in their overall allocation of Chinese assets [4][9]. - Affected by the decline in the balance of repurchase agreements, the bond market leverage ratio slightly decreased by 0.1 percentage points to 107.5% in August, remaining at a relatively low level in recent years. Among different institutions, commercial banks' leverage ratio increased by 0.2 percentage points to 103.8%, while non - bank institutions' leverage ratio decreased by 0.5 percentage points to 116.9% [4][39]. Group 2: August Bond Custody Increment Analysis - Interest - rate bonds: The issuance scale of treasury bonds increased while the maturity scale decreased in August, with the custody increment rising by 38.42 billion yuan to 82.61 billion yuan. For policy financial bonds, the decline in the issuance scale was smaller than that in the maturity scale, and the custody increment increased by 22.23 billion yuan to 46.16 billion yuan. The issuance scale of local bonds decreased significantly while the maturity scale increased, and the custody increment decreased by 31.51 billion yuan to 51.72 billion yuan [7]. - Credit bonds: The issuance scale of medium - term notes and enterprise bonds decreased while the maturity scale increased. The custody increment of medium - term notes decreased by 11.05 billion yuan to 10.44 billion yuan, and the custody scale of enterprise bonds decreased by 3.53 billion yuan. The issuance scale of short - term commercial paper decreased, and the custody volume changed from an increase of 1.06 billion yuan in the previous month to a decrease of 4.61 billion yuan. The custody scale of PPN continued to decline by 1.53 billion yuan, with a narrower decline compared to the previous month [7]. - Other bonds: The issuance and maturity scales of interbank certificates of deposit both increased slightly, and the custody scale continued to decline by 35.56 billion yuan, with a narrower decline compared to the previous month. Commercial bank bonds turned into net repayment, with the custody volume changing from an increase of 36.9 billion yuan in the previous month to a decrease of 1.64 billion yuan. The custody increment of non - bank bonds increased by 2.04 billion yuan to 5.12 billion yuan, and the decline in the custody scale of credit - asset - backed securities narrowed by 0.58 billion yuan to 0.54 billion yuan [7]. Group 3: Institutional Behavior Analysis 3.1 Broad - based Funds - The bond custody scale of broad - based funds decreased by 19.17 billion yuan in August, mainly due to significant reductions in credit bonds and certificates of deposit, while slightly increasing holdings of interest - rate bonds. The reduction in holdings of interbank certificates of deposit, commercial bank bonds, and enterprise bonds increased, while the increase in holdings of medium - term notes and financial bonds on the Clearstream decreased. They turned to reduce holdings of short - term commercial paper and increase holdings of policy financial bonds [12]. 3.2 Securities Companies - The bond custody volume of securities companies increased by 190 million yuan in August, mainly due to a significant decrease in the reduction of treasury bonds, a slight decrease in the reduction of medium - term notes, an increase in the increase of policy financial bonds, and a turn to slightly increase holdings of financial bonds on the Clearstream. The reduction of bond holdings weakened significantly [18]. 3.3 Insurance Companies - The bond custody increment of insurance companies decreased by 5.76 billion yuan to 3.96 billion yuan in August, mainly due to a decrease in the increase of local bonds and treasury bonds, a turn to reduce holdings of policy financial bonds and medium - term notes, and an increase in the reduction of commercial bank bonds. They turned to reduce bond holdings [20]. 3.4 Foreign Institutions - The decline in the bond custody volume of foreign institutions significantly narrowed by 20.41 billion yuan to 9.97 billion yuan in August, with a significant decrease in the reduction of interbank certificates of deposit, treasury bonds, and policy financial bonds. They generally continued to reduce bond holdings, but the reduction intensity weakened [25]. 3.5 Other Institutions - The bond custody increment of other institutions, including the central bank, increased by 9.58 billion yuan to 33.52 billion yuan in August, mainly due to the increase in the net investment of outright reverse repurchase. They significantly increased holdings of local bonds, turned to reduce holdings of policy financial bonds, and slightly increased the reduction of treasury bonds. The increase in holdings of interbank certificates of deposit reached a new high since December 2022, while the increase in holdings of medium - term notes declined from a historical high [28]. 3.6 Commercial Banks - The bond custody increment of commercial banks decreased by 52.2 billion yuan to 120.01 billion yuan in August. They turned to reduce holdings of local bonds, possibly affected by the increase in the net investment of outright reverse repurchase and the concentration on local bonds. The increase in holdings of treasury bonds and policy financial bonds increased significantly, while the increase in holdings of financial bonds on the Clearstream decreased significantly [31]. 3.7 Credit Unions - The bond custody increment of credit unions decreased by 5.92 billion yuan to 1.04 billion yuan in August, mainly due to a decrease in the increase of policy financial bonds and treasury bonds and a turn to reduce holdings of interbank certificates of deposit. They turned to reduce bond holdings [37]. Group 4: Bond Market Leverage Ratio Analysis - The bond market leverage ratio decreased by 0.1 percentage points to 107.5% in August, remaining at a relatively low level in recent years. Commercial banks' leverage ratio increased by 0.2 percentage points to 103.8%, still significantly lower than the level before April 2024. Non - bank institutions' leverage ratio decreased by 0.5 percentage points to 116.9%, remaining at a relatively low level since 2022. Among non - bank institutions, securities companies' leverage ratio decreased by 12.8 percentage points to 215.1%, still at a relatively high level in the past three years. The leverage ratio of insurance and non - legal person products decreased by 0.4 percentage points to 113.8%, remaining at a relatively low level since 2022 [39].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided in the content. 2. Core View of the Report The report analyzes the bond custody data for August 2025, showing that the total bond custody increased less month - on - month. The custody of interest - rate bonds and financial bonds increased, while that of credit bonds and inter - bank certificates of deposit decreased. The custody of major bond types by different institutions showed a differentiated pattern, with allocators increasing and traders and overseas institutions decreasing. The bond market leverage ratio increased month - on - month but decreased year - on - year [1][2][50]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Bond Custody Total and Structure - The total bond custody increased less month - on - month. As of the end of August 2025, the total bond custody of CCDC and SHCH was 174.54 trillion yuan, with a net increase of 1.51 trillion yuan month - on - month, 0.24 trillion yuan less than the increase at the end of July [1][11]. - The custody of interest - rate bonds and financial bonds increased, while that of credit bonds and inter - bank certificates of deposit decreased. In August 2025, the interest - rate bond custody was 120.72 trillion yuan, accounting for 68.72% of the inter - bank bond market custody, with a net increase of 1.80 trillion yuan; the credit bond custody was 18.69 trillion yuan, accounting for 10.80%, with a net decrease of 1424 million yuan; the non - policy financial bond custody was 12.81 trillion yuan, accounting for 7.39%, with a net increase of 2.875 billion yuan; the inter - bank certificate of deposit custody was 20.38 trillion yuan, accounting for 11.99%, with a net decrease of 0.36 trillion yuan [1][11]. 3.2 Bond Holder Structure and Changes 3.2.1 Month - on - Month Changes in Custody by Institution - Allocators' custody of major bond types continued to increase month - on - month, while traders and overseas institutions' custody continued to decrease. Policy banks continued to increase their holdings of interest - rate bonds, inter - bank certificates of deposit, and credit bonds; commercial banks and credit unions increased their holdings of interest - rate bonds and credit bonds but decreased their holdings of inter - bank certificates of deposit; insurance institutions, securities companies, and non - legal entity products increased their holdings of interest - rate bonds but decreased their holdings of inter - bank certificates of deposit and credit bonds; overseas institutions continued to reduce their holdings of interest - rate bonds, inter - bank certificates of deposit, and credit bonds [2][27]. 3.2.2 Month - on - Month Changes in Custody by Bond Type - Treasury bond custody continued to increase month - on - month. Commercial banks continued to significantly increase their holdings, while non - legal entity products continued to reduce their holdings. - Local government bond custody continued to increase month - on - month. Policy banks continued to increase their holdings, while commercial banks changed from increasing to reducing their holdings. - Policy financial bond custody continued to increase month - on - month. Commercial banks continued to increase their holdings, while policy banks changed from increasing to reducing their holdings. - Inter - bank certificate of deposit custody continued to decrease month - on - month. Except for policy banks increasing their holdings, other major institutions reduced their holdings. - Enterprise bond custody continued to decrease month - on - month, and major institutions all reduced their holdings. - Medium - term note custody continued to increase month - on - month. Commercial banks continued to significantly increase their holdings, while securities companies continued to reduce their holdings. - Short - term financing and super - short - term financing custody changed to a decrease, with commercial banks being the main reducing entity. - Non - publicly - oriented debt instrument custody continued to decrease month - on - month, with non - legal entity products being the main reducing entity [3][29][30]. 3.2.3 Holder Structure of Major Bond Types - As of the end of August 2025, the holder structure of treasury bonds: commercial banks accounted for 69.23%, overseas institutions 5.53%, policy banks 10.77%, non - legal entity products 8.13%, securities companies 2.63%, insurance institutions 2.55%, and credit unions 1.16% [34]. - The holder structure of policy financial bonds: commercial banks accounted for 55.07%, non - legal entity products 31.86%, overseas institutions 2.87%, credit unions 3.30%, insurance institutions 2.04%, securities companies 1.13%, and policy banks 3.74% [36]. - The holder structure of local government bonds: commercial banks accounted for 74.22%, non - legal entity products 9.42%, policy banks 9.98%, insurance institutions 4.89%, securities companies 0.93%, credit unions 0.54%, and overseas institutions 0.02% [38]. - The holder structure of enterprise bonds: non - legal entity products accounted for 54.74%, commercial banks 32.20%, securities companies 9.12%, insurance institutions 3.02%, policy banks 0.56%, credit unions 0.28%, and overseas institutions 0.08% [40]. - The holder structure of medium - term notes: non - legal entity products accounted for 61.57%, commercial banks 23.62%, securities companies 4.88%, nominal holder accounts (domestic) 3.40%, policy banks 3.14%, insurance institutions 2.35%, overseas institutions 0.22%, others 0.55%, and credit unions 0.27% [42]. - The holder structure of short - term financing and super - short - term financing: non - legal entity products accounted for 62.19%, commercial banks 20.57%, nominal holder accounts (domestic) 7.53%, policy banks 5.01%, securities companies 4.20%, others 0.28%, credit unions 0.17%, overseas institutions 0.05%, and insurance institutions 0.00% [45]. - The holder structure of non - publicly - oriented debt instruments: non - legal entity products accounted for 59.93%, commercial banks 23.84%, policy banks 2.30%, credit unions 2.15%, others 4.06%, nominal holder accounts (domestic) 2.00%, securities companies 1.11%, overseas institutions 4.49%, and insurance institutions 0.12% [47]. - The holder structure of inter - bank certificates of deposit: non - legal entity products accounted for 65.50%, commercial banks 28.44%, nominal holder accounts (domestic) 3.11%, securities companies 1.02%, policy banks 1.08%, others 0.31%, insurance institutions 0.07%, credit unions 0.03%, and overseas institutions 0.44% [49]. 3.3 Bond Market Leverage Ratio Observation As of the end of August 2025, the estimated balance of repurchase - to - be - bought pledged repurchase was 11.23 trillion yuan, an increase of 0.2 trillion yuan month - on - month. The leverage ratio was 106.88%, up 0.07 percentage points month - on - month and down 0.65 percentage points year - on - year [50].

Summary of Key Points Overall Market Trends - The overall market shows a rebound in institutional attention, particularly in the mechanical, pharmaceutical, and automotive sectors [5][6][7] - The Shanghai and Shenzhen 300 indices have shown varied performance across different sectors, with banking and utilities leading in gains [1][2] Industry Insights - The pharmaceutical sector is witnessing significant advancements in the small molecule GLP-1RA space, with Orforglipron leading globally and domestic pipelines gaining value [28][30][31] - The mechanical industry is focusing on unmanned intelligent equipment, highlighted by the upcoming military parade showcasing new technologies [35][36][38] Company-Specific Updates - **Old Phoenix (老凤祥)**: The company reported a 10.5% year-on-year increase in Q2 revenue, with a focus on brand rejuvenation and product upgrades [42][44] - **Federation Pharmaceutical (联邦制药)**: The company achieved a 4.61% increase in revenue for H1 2025, with significant growth in its formulation segment [46][48] - **Giant Star Agriculture (巨星农牧)**: The company experienced a 66.49% increase in revenue for H1 2025, driven by a substantial rise in pig sales [51][52] - **China Shenhua (中国神华)**: The company reported a decline in revenue but maintained strong integrated operations, with a focus on asset injection and sustainable dividends [56][58] Investment Recommendations - The small molecule GLP-1RA market is expected to provide new growth opportunities, with several domestic companies positioned to benefit from international expansion [33] - Companies involved in the mechanical sector, particularly those developing robotic technologies, are recommended for investment due to their innovative potential [39][40]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - In June 2025, the total bond custody volume increased less month - on - month. The combined bond custody volume of China Central Depository & Clearing Co., Ltd. (CCDC) and Shanghai Clearing House (SHCH) was 171 trillion yuan, an increase of 1.3 trillion yuan from May 2025, and the incremental custody volume decreased by 0.9 trillion yuan compared to May [4]. - By bond type, interest - rate bonds and non - financial credit bonds increased more month - on - month, while negotiable certificates of deposit (NCDs) decreased month - on - month [4]. - By institution, commercial banks, broad - based funds, and securities companies increased their holdings of interest - rate bonds and reduced their holdings of NCDs; insurance institutions mainly increased their holdings of local government bonds; overseas institutions continued to reduce their holdings of NCDs [4]. - In July, the bond - holding willingness of broad - based funds may decline marginally, but considering the improved bond - currency cost - effectiveness, allocation funds such as insurance and banks are expected to provide support on the demand side [8]. 3. Summary by Related Catalog 3.1 Institution - level Bond - holding Changes - Commercial banks in June 2025 increased their holdings of interest - rate bonds by 622.5 billion yuan (5174.57 billion yuan in May), reduced their holdings of non - financial credit bonds by 1.05 billion yuan (5.15 billion yuan in May), and reduced their holdings of NCDs by 147.1 billion yuan (162.1 billion yuan in May) [6]. - Broad - based funds in June 2025 increased their holdings of interest - rate bonds by 704.8 billion yuan (170 billion yuan in May), increased their holdings of non - financial credit bonds by 131.4 billion yuan (45.2 billion yuan in May), and reduced their holdings of NCDs by 450.1 billion yuan (475 billion yuan in May) [6]. - Other institutions in June 2025 increased their holdings of treasury bonds and reduced their holdings of local government bonds and policy - bank bonds [6]. - Insurance institutions in June 2025 increased their holdings of interest - rate bonds, non - financial credit bonds, and NCDs [6]. - Securities companies in June 2025 increased their holdings of interest - rate bonds and non - financial credit bonds and reduced their holdings of NCDs [6]. - Overseas institutions in June 2025 reduced their holdings of interest - rate bonds, non - financial credit bonds, and NCDs [6]. 3.2 Leverage and Exchange - level Holdings - In June 2025, the inter - bank leverage ratio rebounded to 107.9% [6]. - In June 2025, trust institutions and others reduced their holdings of bonds on the Shanghai Stock Exchange; securities company proprietary trading and others increased their holdings of convertible bonds; public funds, enterprise annuities, etc. reduced their holdings of convertible bonds [6]. 3.3 Reasons for Bond - holding Changes - In June, the central bank was more willing to maintain liquidity. Coupled with a large maturity volume of inter - bank NCDs, although the monthly issuance of government bonds remained high, the incremental bond custody volume was mainly affected by the maturity of NCDs and decreased overall. On one hand, large - scale banks continued to net - buy short - term treasury bonds, and banks, insurance, etc. mainly increased their holdings of local government bonds under the background of high government bond supply. On the other hand, the central bank conducted two outright reverse - repo operations and renewed 300 billion yuan of Medium - term Lending Facility (MLF) in June to maintain the money market. Coupled with the maturity volume of inter - bank NCDs exceeding 4 trillion yuan in June, except for insurance institutions, other institutions reduced their holdings of inter - bank NCDs. In addition, as the yield of NCDs declined and the foreign - exchange swap points narrowed, the relative return of overseas institutions investing in NCDs decreased rapidly, and overseas institutions continued to reduce their holdings of NCDs [7].

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints of the Report - In May 2025, the total bond custody scale increased by 216.33 billion yuan month-on-month, 55.57 billion yuan more than in April, mainly due to the significant rise in the net financing scale of treasury bonds and policy financial bonds. The custody increments of local bonds, interbank certificates of deposit (CDs), and credit bonds decreased slightly month-on-month [3][6]. - The profit-taking sentiment after the reserve requirement ratio (RRR) cut and interest rate cut in May and the increase in government bond supply pressure were important factors affecting institutional behavior. Non-bank institutions' profit-taking sentiment heated up, and commercial banks had to take on more primary supply, increasing their liability pressure, which requires the central bank to maintain a loose liquidity environment [3][8]. - The bond market leverage ratio in May was about 107.1%, basically the same as in April and still significantly lower than before January this year. The leverage ratio of commercial banks increased slightly, while that of non-bank institutions decreased and remained near a three-year low [3][37]. Summary by Directory 1. Interest Rate Bonds' Net Financing Soared while Credit Bonds and CDs Slightly Declined, and the Bond Custody Increment Rose Significantly in May - The total bond custody scale increased by 216.33 billion yuan month-on-month in May, 55.57 billion yuan more than in April, mainly due to the significant rise in the net financing scale of treasury bonds and policy financial bonds. The custody increments of local bonds, interbank CDs, and credit bonds decreased slightly month-on-month [3][6]. - Specifically, for interest rate bonds, the treasury bond custody increment rose by 64.2 billion yuan to 90.8 billion yuan; the local bond custody increment decreased by 18.46 billion yuan to 52.23 billion yuan; the policy financial bond custody increment rose by 26.9 billion yuan to 28.21 billion yuan. For credit bonds, the medium-term note (MTN) custody increment decreased by 3.63 billion yuan to 7.37 billion yuan, and the short-term financing bill (STFB) custody volume changed from an increase of 3.36 billion yuan in the previous month to a decrease of 4.31 billion yuan. The custody scales of enterprise bonds and private placement notes (PPNs) continued to decline, but the decline narrowed [6]. 2. Non-bank Profit-taking Sentiment Heated up in May, and the Supply Pressure Increased, Leading to a Significant Increase in Banks' Bond Purchases and Higher Liability Pressure - **General Funds**: The custody increment decreased by 34.3 billion yuan to 81.26 billion yuan. They reduced their purchases of CDs and treasury bonds, sold STFBs and policy financial bonds, but increased their purchases of MTNs and local bonds. Relative to the stock, they reduced their allocation of bonds, especially CDs, and switched to reducing their allocation of treasury bonds and policy financial bonds [11]. - **Securities Companies**: The bond custody volume changed from an increase of 1.124 billion yuan in the previous month to a decrease of 1.261 billion yuan. They sold treasury bonds and policy financial bonds and reduced their sales of CDs. Relative to the stock, they also reduced their allocation of bonds [16]. - **Insurance Companies**: The bond custody volume changed from an increase of 99 million yuan in the previous month to a decrease of 120 million yuan. They sold local bonds, but reduced their sales of financial bonds on the Shanghai Clearing House and increased their purchases of treasury bonds. Relative to the stock, they reduced their allocation of local bonds [19]. - **Overseas Institutions**: The bond custody volume changed from an increase of 9.54 billion yuan in the previous month to a decrease of 9.63 billion yuan. They sold CDs, policy financial bonds, and commercial bank bonds and significantly reduced their purchases of treasury bonds. Relative to the stock, they reduced their allocation of bonds [23]. - **Other Institutions**: The decline in bond custody volume narrowed from 74.29 billion yuan in the previous month to 19.27 billion yuan. They reduced their sales of local bonds and treasury bonds, but sold policy financial bonds and reduced their purchases of CDs. The narrowing of the decline was mainly due to the decrease in the net reverse repurchase volume of the central bank [25]. - **Commercial Banks**: The bond custody increment increased by 90.74 billion yuan to 167.8 billion yuan, reaching a new high since July 2022. They increased their purchases of treasury bonds to a record high, switched to buying policy financial bonds, and reduced their sales of CDs. However, the custody increment of local bonds decreased significantly due to the narrowing of the net reverse repurchase volume. Relative to the stock, they increased their allocation of bonds, mainly interest rate bonds [28]. - **Credit Unions**: The bond custody increment increased by 539 million yuan to 544 million yuan. They switched to buying treasury bonds and policy financial bonds, but slightly reduced their purchases of local bonds, CDs, and financial bonds on the Shanghai Clearing House. Relative to the stock, they increased their allocation of bonds, mainly treasury bonds and local bonds [32][35]. 3. Non-bank Leverage Ratio Declined Again in May and Remained Near a Three-year Low - The bond market leverage ratio in May was about 107.1%, basically the same as in April and still significantly lower than before January this year. The leverage ratio of commercial banks increased by 0.2 percentage points to 103.3%, but was still lower than before 2025. The leverage ratio of non-bank institutions decreased by 0.4 percentage points to 116.4% and remained near a three-year low [37]. - Among non-bank institutions, the leverage ratio of securities companies decreased by 6.7 percentage points to 207.4%, and that of insurance and non-legal person products decreased by 0.2 percentage points to 113.2%, both remaining near recent lows. In the general funds, the repurchase balance of money market funds increased significantly, while that of non-money products of fund companies increased limitedly, and their absolute levels were still low. The repurchase balances of insurance companies and other products slightly declined from high levels, and that of wealth management products continued to decline slightly near a historical low [37].