（数据来源：WIND资讯） 本轮债市调整以来平安公司债ETF（511030）回撤控制排名第一，近一周场内成交贴水最少，净值相对稳健且回撤可控，可参考下表（本 轮债市调整自2025年8月8日起算）： 资金方面，税期资金面情况超预期，机构认为本次资金面收敛可能是由于央行前期逆回购投放较为克制叠加部分资金流向股市导致出现了 资金缺口。目前7DOMO余额为20770亿元再度明显超出季节性（过去四年均值4316亿元），不过央行提前宣布MLF净投放3000亿元，总体 呵护意味明显，预计OMO会继续大量投放。当前1Y存单来到1.67%。 | 代码 | 间序 | 场内简称 | 托管人 | 規模(亿) | 近1周均贴 近1周涨跌 | | 今年以来 | 质押率 | 本轮调整 | 近1年 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | | | | | 水率 | ਵ | TID (8) | | 最大回搬 | Calmar # | | 511030.SH | 平安中债-中高等级公司债利差因子ETF | 公司價BIF | 十女最行股份有限 ...

固定收益 | 动态跟踪 本轮赎回压力或止于基金端 固定收益市场周观察 政策变化超预期；货币政策变化超预期；经济基本面变化超预期；信用风险暴露超预 期；数据统计可能存在遗漏 报告发布日期 2025 年 08 月 25 日 | 齐晟 | qisheng@orientsec.com.cn | | --- | --- | | | 执业证书编号：S0860521120001 | | 杜林 | dulin@orientsec.com.cn | | | 执业证书编号：S0860522080004 | | 王静颖 | wangjingying@orientsec.com.cn | | | 执业证书编号：S0860523080003 | | 徐沛翔 | xupeixiang@orientsec.com.cn | | | 执业证书编号：S0860525070003 | 补跌后骑乘空间增大，继续挖掘中短端城 投：信用债市场周观察 2025-08-25 交易热度新高，估值还未见顶：可转债市 场周观察 2025-08-19 24Q4 债市的"反向镜像"：固定收益市场 周观察 2025-08-18 有关分析师的申明，见本报告最后部分。其 ...

Group 1 - The fiscal financing side is believed to have peaked year-on-year, while the expenditure side may peak in September-October [1] - There are signs of increased activity in quasi-fiscal measures, with significant growth in policy bond financing in August, following the government's indication of 500 billion yuan in new policy development financial tools for this year [1] - Macro liquidity indicators suggest that social financing may have peaked, and M1 could peak around October [1] Group 2 - Micro liquidity is currently influenced by high margin trading and consumer credit subsidies, leading to unpredictable market conditions [1] - In this environment, investing in high-quality or undervalued banks is considered appropriate, emphasizing the importance of focusing on such opportunities [1] - The recent adjustment in the bond market has seen Ping An's corporate bond ETF (511030) rank first in terms of controlled drawdown, indicating relative stability and manageable risk [1] Group 3 - A detailed table of various ETFs is provided, showing their scale, recent performance, and other metrics, highlighting the performance of different bond ETFs in the market [1] - The data includes specific figures such as the scale of ETFs in billions, recent weekly performance percentages, and one-year performance metrics, which can be useful for investors [1]

Core Viewpoint - The bond market is experiencing significant adjustments, with over 70% of bond funds reporting losses in August, primarily due to high-risk preferences in the equity market and a general decline in bond fund net values [2][3][4]. Group 1: Market Performance - As of August 20, the stock market's rebound has negatively impacted bond market sentiment, leading to declines in long-term government bond futures [2]. - More than 100 bond funds have seen performance declines exceeding 1% since August, with notable losses in funds heavily invested in long-term interest rate bonds [4]. - The overall performance of bond funds this year has been poor, with over 600 funds reporting losses, indicating a challenging environment for investors seeking stable returns [4]. Group 2: Fund Flows and Investor Behavior - In response to net value adjustments, some bond fund holders have opted for redemptions, with specific funds announcing adjustments to ensure the interests of their investors [5]. - There is a divergence in fund flows for bond ETFs, with some experiencing significant outflows while others, particularly those with larger declines, have seen substantial inflows [5]. Group 3: Future Outlook - Analysts express a mixed outlook for the bond market, with expectations of continued volatility and a potential stabilization in the near term, but caution against significant upward movements without a change in interest rate expectations [6][7]. - The current economic environment, including inflation and monetary policy, presents uncertainties for the bond market, leading to a defensive stance among investors [7][8].

进入8月以来，债市曾一度有所反弹，但从上周开始，随着市场风险偏好的提升，债市再度陷入调整。截至8月18日，10年期国债收益率已经突破 了7月调整时的高点。 面对市场的调整，债券基金面临着一定的赎回压力，基金经理们也纷纷表示感受到了前所未有的压力。一位基金经理坦言："现在的市场波动确实 让我们感到很有压力。权益基金收益率不断走高，而债基净值却在下滑，持有人的情绪十分低迷。" 尽管如此，业内人士普遍认为，债市并不具备长期大跌的基础。10年期国债1.8%的期限利差已经基本反映了市场对宏观变化的预期。为了应对市 场的变化，基金经理们也在积极调整策略，采取缩短久期、调整结构等方式来应对未来曲线可能的陡峭化。 近期权益市场的强势表现与债市的疲软形成了鲜明的对比。长债尤其是超长债的调整幅度较大，而短端债券的走势则相对平稳。这背后的原因有 多方面，包括股市的持续上行带来的市场风险偏好提升、商品市场的表现对债市资金的分流压力等。 近期，债券市场经历了一轮显著的回调，令众多基金经理直呼"压力山大"。与此同时，权益市场却屡创新高，形成了鲜明的对比。 8月18日，债市迎来了8月以来最为动荡的一天。10年期和30年期国债活跃券的日内最 ...

Core Viewpoint - The bond market is experiencing significant pressure and adjustments, contrasting with the strong performance of the equity market, leading to concerns among bond fund managers about redemption pressures and declining net asset values [1][3][6]. Market Performance - On August 18, the bond market faced its worst day in August, with 10-year and 30-year government bond yields rising by 5 basis points and 6 basis points respectively, closing at 1.79% and 2.06% [1]. - The average performance of pure bond funds was negative, with mid-to-long-term pure bond funds averaging -0.19% and short-term bond funds averaging -0.03% for the week [6][7]. Market Dynamics - The bond market is under pressure due to increased risk appetite in the equity market, leading to a "stock-bond seesaw" effect, where funds are being diverted from bonds to equities [3][4]. - The current bond market adjustment is driven more by expectations rather than changes in the funding environment, with a potential shift from deflation to mild inflation anticipated [3][4]. Fund Manager Strategies - Fund managers are adopting strategies such as shortening duration and adjusting portfolio structures to cope with the steepening yield curve [8][9]. - There is a consensus among fund managers that the bond market does not have the foundation for a long-term decline, with continued demand from institutional clients and a stable funding environment [2][8]. Investor Sentiment - Personal investors are expressing mixed feelings, with some feeling pessimistic about the bond market while others see potential buying opportunities [8][10]. - Fund managers suggest that investors consider extending their holding periods and maintaining a balanced approach to their portfolios, especially during market adjustments [10][11].

国盛证券固收首席分析师杨业伟表示，债市下跌主要源于股市上涨推升风险偏好，而市场对股市持续上 涨的预期升温，导致此前持有长久期债券、仓位较重的交易盘对市场调整的担忧加剧，进而出现减持， 引发债市明显回撤。 "股市上涨提升风险偏好压制债市，但债市调整空间有限。"杨业伟表示，部分债市变量不会因为股市上 涨而发生变化，一方面当前资金面将继续保持宽松；另一方面，银行配债力量不会因股市上涨而减弱， 这构成债市的基本盘，能够支撑债市稳定。 8月18日盘中，债券市场大幅下跌。国债期货方面，各期限国债期货主力合约大幅下行。Wind数据显 示，截至13:55，30年期国债期货主力合约跌1.01%，10年期国债期货主力合约跌0.27%，5年期、2年期 国债期货主力合约分别下跌0.18%、0.14%。 现券市场方面，银行间主要利率债收益率普遍大幅上行。Wind数据显示，截至14:00，30年期国债活跃 券25超长特别国债02收益率上行4基点至2.03%，10年期国债活跃券25附息国债11收益率上行2基点至 1.77%。 ...

固收｜经济"预期差"下债市如何调整？20250817 8 月的经济数据预期不会比 7 月更乐观。极端天气高发可能会影响生产经营状 况，同时 8 月仍然是应届毕业生就业数据释放的窗口期，这两个因素在 8 月和 摘要 7 月中国 PMI 数据显示制造业景气水平回落，新订单指数低于临界点， 反映需求扩张慢于供给，新出口订单指数受贸易摩擦影响。非制造业商 务活动指数虽高于临界值，但环比下降，表明企业生产经营扩张态势放 缓。 7 月进出口数据仍处高位，但对美国出口同比大幅减少，中美贸易摩擦 影响显著。对东盟、欧盟出口增长较好，但未来局势变化可能影响缺口 填补，预计 8 月出口仍有压力。 当前物价水平总体稳定，CPI 持平，PPI 同比下降 3.6%。CPI 中食品烟 酒类降价最多，PPI 中采掘业、原材料工业、加工工业承压最重。8 月物 价数据预计维持现有中轴水平，PPI 受季节性和国际贸易影响，部分行 业价格下降。 7 月社融数据表现较好，主要得益于政府债券持续扩张，对实体经济发 放人民币贷款同比下降。信贷数据表现不佳，新增人民币贷款减少，受 季节性因素和需求、投资未全面启动的影响。 7 月 M2 同比增长 8.8% ...

Summary of Key Points from Conference Call Records Industry Overview - The conference call primarily discusses the bond market dynamics in China, focusing on fixed income strategies and the impact of macroeconomic factors on various asset classes, including stocks and commodities. Core Insights and Arguments 1. **Market Sentiment and Performance** - In July, the bond market faced pressure from risk appetite, leading to rising interest rates, although the fundamentals and liquidity remained supportive. The overall sentiment in the bond market stabilized quickly despite the adjustments, with credit bonds showing relatively minor adjustment pressure [1][4][8]. 2. **Government Policies and Market Reactions** - The introduction of the 924 policy in September led to a "see-saw" effect between the stock and bond markets, causing significant redemption pressures on bond funds and wealth management products [10][20]. The policy aimed at stabilizing growth and capital markets had a notable impact on market dynamics. 3. **Yield Curve Dynamics** - The current yield curve is characterized by a bear steepening pattern, with short-term rates rising less than medium to long-term rates. This reflects the influence of growth stabilization and inflation expectations [6][12]. 4. **Credit Bonds Performance** - Credit bonds exhibited less adjustment pressure compared to interest rate bonds, indicating investor confidence in credit products despite rising yields [8][19]. 5. **Economic Fundamentals and Policy Effects** - The basic economic fundamentals are weak, with a notable decline in domestic demand since June. However, the anti-involution policies may provide some support to nominal prices, albeit with a lag in their effects on actual GDP growth [13][15][16]. 6. **Market Risks and Adjustments** - The current economic downturn and rising unemployment pose risks of negative feedback loops, particularly affecting the real estate market and potentially leading to price increases [15]. The anticipated impact on PPI is estimated to be around 2-3 percentage points, while the effect on CPI is less pronounced [15]. 7. **Valuation of Convertible Bonds** - The convertible bond market is currently at historical high valuations, with new bond pricing being expensive. The performance of convertible bonds is closely tied to the Shanghai Composite Index, which is approaching a critical resistance level of 3,700 points [22][25]. 8. **Investment Strategies and Recommendations** - For August, the overall market adjustment risk is deemed controllable, with recommendations to adopt a tactical approach focusing on trading opportunities and maintaining a cautious stance on long-duration assets [20][21]. The emphasis is on a "yield strategy" and monitoring the performance of high-grade bonds [21]. 9. **Impact of Tax Adjustments** - The implementation of VAT adjustments has created pricing discrepancies between new and old bonds, but the overall impact on long-term bonds is expected to be minimal [18]. 10. **Future Market Outlook** - The outlook for the bond market remains cautious, with expectations of potential upward pressure on yields in the coming months. The focus should be on maintaining a yield strategy while being wary of capital loss risks associated with long-duration bonds [48]. Additional Important Insights - The bond market's response to regulatory changes and macroeconomic policies is critical for understanding future trends. The interplay between fiscal policies in the U.S. and global asset pricing is also highlighted, indicating a need for vigilance regarding potential impacts on investment strategies [2][39][45]. - The performance of the newly launched science and technology bonds ETFs is noted, with a significant increase in scale despite recent market adjustments, indicating a growing interest in this segment [50][57][64]. This summary encapsulates the key points discussed in the conference call, providing a comprehensive overview of the current state and outlook of the bond market and related investment strategies.

Core Viewpoint - The bond market has entered an adjustment phase, with the 10-year government bond yield rising from 1.6653% on July 15 to 1.7578% on July 30, before retreating to 1.7144% on July 31. This adjustment has impacted fixed-income wealth management products, leading to a decrease in their yields [3][4][5]. Market Adjustment Impact - The adjustment in the bond market has led to a decline in the average annualized yield of open-ended fixed-income wealth management products to 2.81%, a decrease of 0.23 percentage points compared to the previous month [3][4]. - As of July 21-27, the number of existing wealth management products increased by 245 to a total of 27,803, accounting for 68.45% of the market [3]. Investor Sentiment and Reactions - Many investors have expressed concerns over declining yields, with some considering redeeming their products due to perceived losses [3][4]. - Wealth management companies have emphasized that the current market adjustment is within a reasonable range and advised investors to remain calm and avoid panic selling [4][7]. Economic and Policy Context - The adjustment is attributed to multiple factors, including the unexpected introduction of "anti-involution" policies and the launch of major infrastructure projects, which have shifted market sentiment towards higher-risk assets [4][5]. - The People's Bank of China has taken measures to support market liquidity, including a significant reverse repo operation, which is seen as a positive factor for bond market stability [7]. Long-term Outlook - Despite the current pressures, several wealth management firms maintain a positive outlook for the medium to long-term bond market, citing ongoing economic recovery and the fundamental support for bond pricing [5][6]. - Historical data suggests that a majority of wealth management products tend to recover their net value within one to two months following a market adjustment [7][8]. Investment Strategy Recommendations - Wealth management firms recommend a balanced investment approach, suggesting that investors allocate smaller amounts for higher returns while keeping larger amounts in stable assets to mitigate risks [8]. - The current market conditions are viewed as an opportunity to invest in high-quality assets, with the overall redemption pressure on bank wealth management products remaining relatively low compared to previous years [8].