炒股就看金麒麟分析师研报，权威，专业，及时，全面，助您挖掘潜力主题机会！ 来源：天勇谈经济 题记：2025年12月17日，中信出版集团与北大国发院、北大中国经济研究中心共同主办"承泽论坛"第49 期暨《读懂"十五五"》新书分享会。本文根据中国经济体制改革研究会国民经济工程实验室主任，中国 人民大学全球治理研究院高级研究员，中央党校（国家行政学院）国际战略研究院原副院长周天勇的主 题演讲整理。 感谢北大"承泽论坛"第49期暨《读懂"十五五"》新书分享会的邀请。因为是在北大的演讲，今天来的听 众大部分是北大、清华和其他高校的学生，还有一部分是老师，我的演讲侧重于学理性，并结合数理逻 辑的推算，展望中国经济体制改革对未来增长的推动前景。 内容分为三个方面：一是改革与增长内生计算的数理逻辑；二是我国渐进式转轨经济的增长潜能究竟体 现在何处；三是今后需推进哪些关键领域的改革，才能实现经济的中高速增长。 改革与增长内生计算的数理逻辑 中国是一个特长周期经济体制转轨的国家。世界各国的体制类型主要分为三类：一是"资本主义+市场 经济"模式，二是社会主义+计划经济"模式，三是我国特色的"社会主义+市场经济"模式。并且，与前苏 ...

Group 1 - The central economic work meeting emphasizes the importance of expanding domestic demand as a primary task for the upcoming year [4][5] - There is a notable "temperature difference" between macroeconomic performance and microeconomic sentiment, with macro indicators showing strength while micro experiences remain subdued [1][2] - The "involution" phenomenon in enterprises is linked to this temperature difference, where companies focus on maintaining cash flow stability, leading to increased production but declining profit margins [2] Group 2 - Suggestions for effective consumption support policies include increasing income, ensuring leisure time, improving consumption scenarios, and providing quality products [2] - The central economic work meeting proposes enhancing counter-cyclical and cross-cyclical adjustments, focusing on demand-side short-term adjustments and supply-side structural improvements [3] - Economic growth targets for 2026 are suggested to be set between 4.5% and 5.0%, slightly lower than the previous year's target, aligning with long-term GDP growth trends [4][5] Group 3 - The macroeconomic policy direction is expected to lean towards easing, with one interest rate cut and one reserve requirement ratio reduction anticipated [5] - The construction of a modern industrial system is highlighted as a crucial aspect of cross-cyclical policies, focusing on upgrading traditional industries and fostering emerging sectors [5][6] - There is a call for deeper market-oriented reforms to stimulate microeconomic vitality and establish a unified national market, which is essential for effective policy transmission [6]

Core Viewpoint - The Federal Reserve is trapped in a cycle where lowering interest rates could trigger hyperinflation, while maintaining high rates may lead to deflationary collapse. The most likely future scenario is a resurgence of inflation due to current debt levels and policy inertia [1][4]. Group 1: Monetary Policy and Inflation - Modern monetary policy aims to avoid deflation at all costs, viewing it as a taboo under Keynesian principles. However, deflation can be necessary to correct market distortions such as poor investments and debt addiction [1][4]. - The financial system has developed a pathological dependence on inflation due to the Federal Reserve's refusal to allow market corrections, as seen during the 2008 financial crisis [5]. Group 2: Interest Rates and Economic Indicators - Despite recent interest rate hikes, the fundamental issues remain unaddressed. In the 1980s, rates had to exceed 20% to combat stagflation, while current increases are merely superficial [2][6]. - The U.S. government incurs quarterly interest payments of $250 billion, indicating unsustainable debt levels and eroding purchasing power of the dollar [6]. Group 3: Future Projections - A significant risk is anticipated in 2026, as the Federal Reserve may lower rates to avoid recession, leading to a resurgence of suppressed inflation [7]. - The likelihood is high that the Federal Reserve will choose to continue monetary easing, which could result in uncontrollable inflation unless drastic rate hikes are implemented [8]. Group 4: Market Reactions and Asset Strategies - The market is increasingly purchasing gold and silver as a hedge against anticipated inflation and the unsustainability of U.S. debt [6][8]. - The actual impact of tariffs on inflation is minimal, as companies can absorb costs, and reducing immigration to lower demand would require significant time and effort [8].

Core Points - The Japanese 5-year government bond yield has risen to 1.345%, the highest level since June 2008, indicating a significant shift in the bond market [2] - The Japanese yen has depreciated against the US dollar, reaching a 10-month low, with the exchange rate at 155.84 yen per dollar, marking a depreciation of approximately 10 yen since the Liberal Democratic Party presidential election [2][5] - The US dollar index has decreased by 8.37% this year, with the dollar depreciating against major currencies, including a 0.79% decline against the yen [4] Currency and Economic Trends - The depreciation of the yen is primarily attributed to the widening interest rate differential between the US and Japan, as the Federal Reserve has entered a strong rate hike cycle while the Bank of Japan has maintained a more stable policy [5] - Japan's economic stimulus plan, announced by Prime Minister Fumio Kishida, includes a budget of 21.3 trillion yen aimed at addressing inflation and stimulating growth, but has led to immediate depreciation of the yen, suggesting investor skepticism [8][9] - Japan's government debt is projected to exceed 42.1 trillion yen in 2024, with an additional issuance of approximately 11.7 trillion yen to cover the funding gap from the stimulus plan [8] Long-term Economic Implications - Japan's economic growth has been sluggish, with average growth rates declining significantly over the decades, raising concerns about the effectiveness of fiscal stimulus measures [9][12] - The Bank of Japan faces a dilemma in its monetary policy, balancing the need for economic stimulus against rising inflation, with current inflation rates hovering around 2.4% to 4% [14] - The reliance on government debt and low interest rates has distorted the bond market, leading to capital outflows as investors seek higher returns abroad, which could further pressure the yen [16]

Market Overview - The Nikkei 225 index fell by 1.32%, dropping below 50,000 points to 49,741.54 points, with significant declines in SoftBank and NEC, while Mitsubishi UFJ Financial and Sony saw gains [1][2] - The Japanese yen has weakened against the US dollar, reaching a 10-month low at 155.84 yen per dollar, with a notable depreciation of approximately 10 yen since the LDP presidential election [4][6] Currency Trends - The US dollar index has decreased by 8.37% this year, with the dollar depreciating against major currencies, including a 10.85% drop against the euro and a 0.79% drop against the yen [6] - The primary reason for the yen's depreciation is the widening interest rate differential between the US and Japan, as the Federal Reserve has entered a strong rate hike cycle while the Bank of Japan has maintained a more stable policy [7] Economic Policies - The Japanese government has announced a significant economic stimulus plan amounting to 21.3 trillion yen to support economic growth and assist consumers affected by inflation [12] - The government plans to cover the funding gap through bond issuance, with an estimated issuance of at least 42.1 trillion yen in 2024, including an additional 11.7 trillion yen to support the stimulus plan [12][13] Debt and Fiscal Challenges - Japan's government debt has reached alarming levels, with the debt-to-GDP ratio significantly higher than other developed countries, indicating a reliance on fiscal deficits to stimulate the economy [16] - The long-term economic growth rate has been declining, with average growth rates dropping to 0.21% from 2020 to 2024, reflecting the ineffectiveness of past stimulus measures [13] Monetary Policy Dilemmas - The Bank of Japan faces a challenging situation with rising inflation and pressure to maintain accommodative monetary policy to support government stimulus efforts [18] - The central bank's prolonged low-interest rate policy has not yielded significant economic improvement, leading to concerns about the sustainability of such measures [19] Market Reactions - Following the announcement of the economic stimulus plan, the yen experienced a sharp decline, indicating investor skepticism regarding the effectiveness of the proposed measures [13] - The upcoming monetary policy decision by the Bank of Japan on December 19 will be crucial, as it will directly impact the yen's exchange rate and market sentiment [20]

Core Viewpoint - The Japanese yen has depreciated significantly against the US dollar, reaching a 10-month low, primarily due to the widening interest rate differential between the US and Japan, as well as Japan's economic policies [1][2]. Group 1: Currency Exchange Trends - As of November 20, the yen traded between 157.5 and 157.9 yen per dollar, a depreciation of approximately 10 yen since the self-defense party leadership election [1]. - The US dollar index has decreased by 8.22% this year, with the dollar depreciating against major currencies, but the yen's depreciation against the dollar has been relatively minor at 0.79% [1]. - Since the election of Prime Minister Fumio Kishida on October 21, the dollar has appreciated by 3.82% against the yen [1]. Group 2: Economic Policies and Stimulus Plans - Prime Minister Fumio Kishida announced a 21.3 trillion yen economic stimulus plan aimed at addressing inflation and boosting economic growth, which includes various subsidies and tax exemptions [3][4]. - The Japanese government plans to issue approximately 11.7 trillion yen (about 529.9 billion RMB) in new bonds to finance this stimulus plan, indicating a significant increase in government debt [3][4]. - The effectiveness of past stimulus measures has been questioned, as they have not met expectations and have contributed to rising government debt levels [4]. Group 3: Inflation and Monetary Policy - Japan has experienced persistent inflation, with the inflation rate reaching 2.4% in October 2024 and projected to rise to 4% in January 2025 [5]. - The Bank of Japan faces pressure to maintain a loose monetary policy to support government stimulus efforts, despite rising inflation that typically warrants interest rate hikes [5][6]. - The long-term reliance on quantitative easing has not yielded significant economic improvement, leading to concerns about the sustainability of such policies [5][6]. Group 4: Debt and Market Dynamics - The Japanese government's approach to financing its debt through bond issuance has distorted the bond market and led to capital outflows as investors seek higher returns abroad [6]. - The Bank of Japan holds over 40% of government bonds, raising concerns about its independence and the sustainability of its monetary policy [6]. - The upcoming monetary policy decision on December 19 will be crucial, as it will directly impact the yen's exchange rate and the broader economic outlook [6].

楼市的修复注定是一个长周期，那些激动人心的预测，概不要信。 为什么？ 从理论上说，楼市的问题很简单，就是供过于求了。那就要双管齐下，让供应端刹车，超库存的城市一律停止土拍；让需求端奔跑，痛快点，直接拉到辜朝 明的贷款零利率，大幅降低交易税。这两方面都涉及到财政的利益。 需求端也有同样的问题，降首付、降利息、降交易税，对中国来说，最终还是财政一盘棋，既然财政摆脱不了土地财政，无力让供应端刹车，同样，也无力 让需求端奔跑，不能太指望政策。 假设地方财政一直高度依赖土地出让金，那么，未来就成了一场供应端与需求端的龟兔赛跑，这就是所谓的渐进式化解，有限刹车，有限奔跑，逐渐减少库 存，这将是一个漫长的冬季。 什么情况下会改变预期，靠渐进式化解肯定不行，高盛提出年底放水，增加 8 万亿救市，那就是典型的债务驱动模式，当负债率上升到一定的阈值，财政收 入难以支付债务利息，那么，就应了凯恩斯主义的最后一招：货币贬值。 这是一种快节奏的方式，但也是一个硬着陆。 供应端刹不住车，需求端也跑不起来，中国是土地全民所有制，地方是土地的唯一供应源，拥有定价权，这就不能按市场经济的规律解释中国楼市的现象。 从市场经济的规律说，既然供过于 ...

Core Viewpoint - Insufficient demand is a significant challenge faced by countries with advanced production capacity and income levels, leading to various economic issues such as declining corporate revenues, reduced employment opportunities, and worsening social wealth [5][10][12]. Summary by Sections Demand Insufficiency - Demand insufficiency is described as a "disease of wealth," primarily affecting countries with high production capacity and income levels, while lower-income countries typically face supply shortages and inflation [5][28]. - The dangers of demand insufficiency are severe, potentially leading to acute economic collapse and long-term resource wastage if not addressed [5][12][19]. Understanding Demand Insufficiency - Understanding demand insufficiency requires analyzing four levels: economic development stage, triggers, market failures, and inadequate policy responses [26][28]. - Market failure is emphasized as a critical aspect in understanding demand insufficiency, influencing the choice of appropriate policy responses [5][10][19]. Policy Responses - Effective policy responses to demand insufficiency must meet three criteria: they must be external to market logic, target fast variables, and facilitate broad credit growth [40][41]. - Counter-cyclical monetary and fiscal policies are recognized as standard and effective remedies for demand insufficiency, although they often face public skepticism [6][41]. Historical Context - Historical examples of prolonged demand insufficiency include the Great Depression in the 1920s and Japan's "lost two decades" from 1992 to 2012, both characterized by persistent economic challenges due to insufficient demand [10][11][12]. Economic Impact - The impact of demand insufficiency includes significant declines in corporate income and profitability, leading to increased bankruptcies and reduced investment [13][14]. - The overall wealth of society diminishes, with falling corporate profits resulting in lower asset valuations and real estate prices [14][15]. Broader Consequences - Demand insufficiency also leads to a deteriorating business environment, increased external trade disputes, worsening income distribution, and heightened financial risks [18][19]. - The phenomenon can create a self-reinforcing negative cycle, where reduced spending leads to lower incomes and further decreases in demand [32][33]. Conclusion - Addressing demand insufficiency requires a comprehensive understanding of its complexities and the implementation of targeted, effective policies that can break the cycle of decline [38][39].

Group 1 - The article discusses the ongoing debate between demand-side and supply-side economics, emphasizing that both are important but often oversimplified in policy discussions [1][2][4] - It highlights the historical context of Keynesian economics and its application during the Great Depression, suggesting that Keynes' ideas have been misinterpreted over time [4][6][7] - The article critiques modern interpretations of Keynesianism, noting that many contemporary economists have lost sight of the complexities of economic systems, leading to ineffective policies [9][11][12] Group 2 - The rise of supply-side economics in the late 20th century is presented as a reaction to perceived failures of Keynesian policies, with a focus on tax cuts and deregulation [11][12][21] - The article argues that both demand-side and supply-side approaches have failed to address the underlying issues in the U.S. economy, particularly the decline of manufacturing and rising inequality [12][21][22] - It concludes that superficial policy measures, such as tariffs and tax cuts, do not address the foundational elements necessary for a robust economy, leading to ongoing challenges in the manufacturing sector [22][24]

Economic Situation - The local economy is experiencing a significant downturn, with businesses like tea shops seeing a drastic drop in sales and factories operating at reduced capacity [1] - There is a noticeable lack of consumer demand, leading to a halt in production and a rise in unemployment [4][6] Policy Responses - The central bank and finance ministry have opted for Keynesian policies to stimulate demand, emphasizing the need for government intervention to avoid prolonged high unemployment [6] - The central bank has implemented a 50 basis point interest rate cut, which has led to a positive market response, encouraging investments and consumer spending [11] Banking Sector Challenges - There is a concerning trend of increased bank deposits as residents choose to save rather than spend, which could lead to a vicious cycle of reduced consumption and further economic decline [7] - The banking sector is facing operational difficulties due to low loan demand, impacting their ability to generate profits [7] Monetary Tools - The central bank is utilizing various monetary tools, including interest rate cuts and open market operations, to inject liquidity into the economy and stabilize banking operations [12][14] - The reserve requirement ratio is highlighted as a critical tool for managing the money supply, with potential adjustments having significant implications for market liquidity [14] Long-term Strategies - The central bank is cautious about using unconventional tools like quantitative easing, recognizing the potential long-term risks associated with excessive liquidity [17] - It is acknowledged that while monetary policy can address immediate liquidity issues, fiscal policy is essential for directly boosting consumer demand and economic activity [20]