很多人，为什么没有耐心去等待系统信号的发出，就急不可耐地进行操作呢？是因为我们对交易系统不自信，总是心存侥幸。 ——笔记哥《应对》 中美元首通话提振风险偏好，股市表现偏强，传销售新规11月落地，利率小幅上行。 隔夜美联储12月降息预期进一步升温，中美元首通电话提振风险偏好。早盘债市情绪略偏谨慎，10Y国债利率微幅高开在1.815%后上至1.817%。股市表现 偏强，尾盘又传销售新规11月落地，利率微上至1.819%附近。 -------------------------- 近日10Y国债活跃券成交仅两三百笔，不知道的还以为债农提前回家过年了。债农内心OS：年底要是再没行情，真得卷铺盖回家了。万万没想到，"适度 宽松"的货币政策就是全年降息10BP，追究是错付了！ 【笔记20251125— 一通百通（-中美元首通电话-股市表现偏强-传销售新规11月落地+资金面均衡偏松=小上)】 资金面均衡偏松，长债收益率小幅上行。 央行公开市场开展3021亿元7天期逆回购操作与10000亿元MLF操作，今日有4075亿元逆回购与9000亿元MLF到期，合计净回笼54亿元。 资金面均衡偏松，资金利率平稳，DR001在1.32% ...

（文章来源：每日经济新闻） 每经AI快讯，11月21日，银行间主要利率债午间表现分化，中长券走弱，短券略暖。30年期国债"25超 长特别国债06"收益率上行0.45bp报2.1560%，10年期国债"25附息国债16"收益率上行0.1bp报1.8095%， 10年期国开债"25国开15"收益率下行0.1bp报1.87%，1年期国债"25附息国债19"收益率下行0.25bp报 1.40%。 ...

分析人士认为，展望2026年，在信用风险未明显抬升的背景下，信用利差预计维持较低水平，增量事件 带来的利差走阔将创造配置时点。 新华财经上海11月19日电 今年以来，债市信用利差总体处于低位，波段震荡特征明显。 信用利差低位震荡 中央国债登记结算有限责任公司提供的数据显示，截至11月18日收盘，银行间信用债市场收益率小幅波 动。举例来看，中债中短期票据收益率曲线（AAA）3M期限上探1BP至1.61%，3年期收益率下行1BP 至1.86%，5年期收益率稳定在1.99%附近；中债中短期票据收益率曲线（A）1年期回落1BP至6.90%。 值得一提的是，"信用债通常很难脱离利率债形成独立走势，因此，信用债的择时与波段操作本质上仍 是延续利率择时的框架。"曾羽表示，"在当前的市场环境中，基于增量事件的择时应为操作核心。从大 趋势上看，货币政策保持适度宽松，社会融资规模增长依赖政府债供给，信用市场资金供给多而债券供 给少的核心逻辑并未转变。也就是说，市场持续缓慢走强的格局在未来一段时间内难以转变。此间，增 量突发事件带来的信心变化和短期回撤将拉扯出估值空间，构成信用债配置和波段交易的时机窗口。 即，各机构需关注增量事件 ...

Core Viewpoint - The bond market has shown signs of recovery, with various fixed-income products experiencing an increase in net value, particularly those with embedded options, indicating a favorable investment environment for fixed-income strategies [2][3][11]. Summary by Sections Fixed Income Product Performance Review - Over the past month, the bond market has further recovered, with net values of fixed-income products rising. The performance ranking of products is as follows: - Option-embedded bond funds: 0.83% (previously 0.21%) - Medium to long-term bond funds: 0.35% (previously 0.12%) - Short-term bond funds: 0.22% (previously 0.12%) - High-grade interbank certificate index: 0.15% (unchanged) - Cash management products: 0.10% (unchanged) [3][9][10]. Bond Market Review - The bond market sentiment has improved, with mid to long-term bonds outperforming short-term bonds. The yield curve has slightly flattened, influenced by two main factors: 1. Economic headwinds have increased, with consumption and investment slowing down, which is favorable for the bond market. 2. The central bank has resumed bond purchases, signaling a more accommodative monetary policy, leading to a decline in bond market interest rates [11][12][18]. Market Outlook - **Short-term (1 month)**: - Interbank certificate rates are expected to stabilize and decline slightly. The 10-year government bond yield is projected to fluctuate between 1.7% and 1.9%, with a focus on trading opportunities [11][31]. - **Medium-term (3-6 months)**: - Economic recovery expectations are likely to continue, with funds remaining relatively abundant, leading to a potential range-bound market for bonds. The 10-year government bond yield may face upward pressure but within a limited range [11][31]. Investment Strategy Recommendations - For investors needing liquidity management, it is advisable to maintain cash-like products and consider increasing allocations to stable low-volatility wealth management and short-term bond funds [41][42]. - For conservative investors, it is recommended to continue holding pure bond products, with the possibility of profit-taking if economic pressures increase and monetary easing expectations rise [43]. - For more aggressive investors, it is suggested to consider allocating to fixed-income plus products that include convertible bonds and equity assets, as liquidity is expected to remain relatively ample [45]. Regulatory Developments - Recent regulatory changes include the introduction of guidelines to promote the healthy development of pension wealth management and the asset management trust management measures, which aim to enhance the investment capabilities of institutions and improve the overall market structure [38][39].

金融研究 2025年11月18日 星期二 金融期货早班车 招商期货有限公司 市场表现：11 月 17 日，A 股四大股指有所调整，其中上证指数下跌 0.46%，报收 3972.03 点；深成 指下跌 0.11%，报收 13202 点；创业板指下跌 0.2%，报收 3105.2 点；科创 50 指数下跌 0.53%， 报收 1354.04 点。市场成交 19,303 亿元，较前日减少 501 亿元。行业板块方面，计算机(+1.67%)， 国防军工(+1.59%)，煤炭(+1.32%)涨幅居前；医药生物(-1.73%)，银行(-1.31%)，非银金融(-1.11%) 跌幅居前。从市场强弱看，IM>IC>IF>IH，个股涨/平/跌数分别为 2,582/138/2,724。沪深两市，机构、 主力、大户、散户全天资金分别净流入-47、-121、-3、171 亿元，分别变动+332、+120、-133、-318 亿元。 股指期货 基差：IM、IC、IF、IH 次月合约基差分别为 128.68、91.95、16.65 与 2.87 点，基差年化收益率分 别为-17.1%、-12.71%、-3.62%与-0.95%，三年期历 ...

钛媒体App 11月18日消息，在税期走款、同业存单集中到期等多重因素叠加影响下，近期银行间市场流 动性阶段性收敛，短端利率短暂上行。截至11月17日收盘，DR001加权平均价上行13.9个基点报 1.5119%，高于政策利率，DR007加权平均价上行5.63个基点报1.5236%。分析人士认为，此轮资金面紧 张更多属于"时点性紧张"。在央行加快开展买断式逆回购、加大中期流动性投放后，资金面回稳迹象已 逐步显现；与此同时，利率债仍以震荡为主，但在存单利率下行、利率走廊收窄等因素推动下，市场内 部的结构性机会开始浮现。（上证报） ...

在税期走款、同业存单集中到期等多重因素叠加影响下，近期银行间市场流动性阶段性收敛，短端利率 短暂上行。截至11月17日收盘，DR001加权平均价上行13.9个基点报1.5119%，高于政策利率，DR007 加权平均价上行5.63个基点报1.5236%。分析人士认为，此轮资金面紧张更多属于"时点性紧张"。在央 行加快开展买断式逆回购、加大中期流动性投放后，资金面回稳迹象已逐步显现；与此同时，利率债仍 以震荡为主，但在存单利率下行、利率走廊收窄等因素推动下，市场内部的结构性机会开始浮现。 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core View of the Report - The main economic indicators in October 2025 showed a decline, including industrial production, fixed - asset investment, and social consumption [1][2]. - In the bond market, investors should gradually become more optimistic, with a short - to - long duration strategy for interest - rate bonds and a focus on structural opportunities for convertible bonds [3]. 3. Summary According to the Directory 3.1 Event - On November 14, 2025, the National Bureau of Statistics released the economic data for October 2025, including industrial added value, fixed - asset investment, and social consumption data [1][6]. 3.2 Economic Data Analysis 3.2.1 Industrial Production - In October 2025, the year - on - year growth rate of industrial added value above a designated size was 4.9%, down 1.6 percentage points from September. The month - on - month growth rate was + 0.17%, the lowest of the year and lower than the same period in 2023 and 2024 [2][6]. - The decline in the year - on - year growth rate of industrial added value was mainly due to the decrease in the mining and manufacturing sectors, while the production and supply of electricity, heat, gas, and water increased [7]. 3.2.2 Fixed - Asset Investment - From January to October 2025, the cumulative year - on - year growth rate of fixed - asset investment was - 1.7%, continuing the downward trend. The month - on - month growth rate in October was - 1.62%, with an expanding decline [2][14]. - The cumulative year - on - year growth rates of real estate, manufacturing, and general infrastructure investment all decreased. Real estate investment remained weak, and manufacturing and infrastructure investment weakened from their high levels at the beginning of the year [18]. 3.2.3 Social Consumption - In October 2025, the year - on - year growth rate of social consumption was 2.9%, slightly lower than the previous month. The month - on - month growth rate was + 0.16%, turning positive but weaker than the seasonal average [2][21]. - Among consumer goods, the year - on - year growth rate of essential consumption increased. Among optional consumption, the decline in automobile and home appliance consumption was significant, while optional consumption such as gold, silver, and jewelry, and communication equipment still performed well. The year - on - year growth rate of catering consumption increased significantly [21]. 3.3 Bond Market View 3.3.1 Interest - Rate Bonds - Since August 2025, the yield of treasury bonds has shown a significant divergence. The short - end yield fluctuated little, while the long - end yield first increased and then decreased. By November 13, the 10 - year and 30 - year treasury bond yields had decreased by 9bp and 13bp respectively from their previous highs [3][27]. - Given the current loose liquidity, investors should be more optimistic about the bond market. The duration selection can be from short to long, and the view that the fluctuation center of the 10 - year treasury bond yield is 1.7% is maintained [3][28]. 3.3.2 Convertible Bonds - As of November 13, 2025, the increase and decrease of the CSI Convertible Bond Index was + 19.3%, and that of the CSI All - Index was + 25.3%. The convertible bond market underperformed the equity market. Since late October, the convertible bond market has seen a new round of growth [3][36]. - In the context of the slow - bull expectation of the equity market and the difficult - to - change pattern of strong demand over supply in the convertible bond market, convertible bonds are still relatively high - quality assets in the long run, and more attention should be paid to the structure [36].

Core Viewpoints - The report anticipates room for OMO rate cuts, LPR cuts, and reserve requirement ratio reductions in 2026, with a slight decline in the central tendency of the 10Y government bond yield [3][4] Economic Conditions - The current domestic market shows strong supply but weak demand, with structural contradictions still evident, and the foundation for economic recovery needs to be solidified. The manufacturing PMI for October is at 49.0%, remaining below the 50.0% threshold for seven consecutive months [4][25] - The essence of the "anti-involution" policy is correction rather than stimulation, leading to structural and mild impacts on prices. The key variables for future price trends will be the strength of demand recovery and the rhythm of policy coordination [4][25] Valuation Insights - After adjustments, the reasonableness of the 10Y government bond valuation has improved, attributed to the gradual fading of the "seesaw" effect. The correlation coefficient between the weighted average interest rate of RMB loans and the 10Y government bond yield has been consistently high, indicating a strong relationship [4][26][27] - A model was developed to estimate the 10Y government bond yield based on the weighted average interest rate of RMB loans, yielding a formula: 10Y government bond yield = (1.11 × RMB loan weighted average interest rate * 100 - 1.95) / 100, with an adjusted R² of 0.908 [4][27] Policy Environment - The report highlights the central bank's liquidity injection as a significant factor influencing the bond market. The net purchase scale of government bonds in the open market is monitored, indicating the central bank's actions to manage liquidity [29][30] Market Dynamics - The report notes that both the upward and downward space for interest rates in 2025 is limited, suggesting a stable outlook for the bond market [19][32] - The volatility of bond yields has decreased, with the volatility in 2024 recorded at 0.18 and from the beginning of 2025 to November 7 at 0.09, indicating a narrowing and shortening of yield fluctuations [22]

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content Core Viewpoints - Last week, the bond market had a weak and volatile performance with a flattened and upward - shifted yield curve. The central bank's bond - buying scale was less than expected, leading to some profit - taking. Rumors about the new public bond fund redemption fee rules and the stock market's rebound also affected the bond market. The short - end yield increased more than the long - end, narrowing the term spread [3][4]. - This week (the week of November 10), the bond market is expected to have a warm - biased and volatile performance. The increasing economic downward pressure in the fourth quarter, reduced supply pressure, and institutional pre - emptive allocation support bond - buying. However, the expectation of reserve requirement ratio cuts and interest rate cuts is not high, and the stock market's resilience and the unannounced new public redemption fee rules limit the bond - buying space. The release of October's financial and economic data may affect the bond market's volatility direction, and it is expected that the year - on - year growth rates of major economic indicators in October may decline compared to September, supporting the bond market's warm - biased volatility [3]. Summary by Directory 1. Last Week's Market Review 1.1 Secondary Market - The bond market adjusted last week, with the long - term bond yield rising significantly. The 10 - year treasury bond futures' main contract fell 0.20% cumulatively. On November 8, the 10 - year treasury bond yield rose 1.88bp, and the 1 - year treasury bond yield rose 2.19bp compared to the previous Friday, narrowing the term spread [4]. - From November 3 to 7, the bond market showed different trends each day. On November 4, the central bank's bond - buying scale was less than expected, and on November 6 and 7, rumors about the new redemption fee rules affected the bond market [4]. 1.2 Primary Market - Last week, 57 interest - rate bonds were issued, 53 less than the previous week. The issuance volume was 514 billion yuan, an increase of 101.3 billion yuan, and the net financing was 288.3 billion yuan, a decrease of 31.6 billion yuan. The issuance and net financing of treasury bonds increased, while those of local government bonds and policy - bank financial bonds decreased [11]. - The overall subscription demand for interest - rate bonds was acceptable. The average subscription multiples for treasury bonds, policy - bank financial bonds, and local government bonds were 3.53, 3.77, and 21.98 times respectively [12]. 2. Last Week's Important Events - In October, the year - on - year export growth rate turned negative. The export value decreased by 1.1% year - on - year, 9.4 percentage points lower than in September. The import value increased by 1.0% year - on - year, 6.4 percentage points lower than in September [13]. - In October, the CPI turned positive year - on - year, rising 0.2%. The PPI decreased by 2.1% year - on - year, with a narrowing decline. The CPI's positive turn was due to factors such as rising vegetable and service prices, and the PPI's narrowing decline was related to improved industry supply - demand and rising commodity prices [13]. 3. Real - Economy Observation - Last week, most high - frequency production - end data increased, including the blast furnace operating rate, semi - steel tire operating rate, and petroleum asphalt plant operating rate. The daily average pig iron output continued to decline [15]. - In terms of demand, the BDI index and the CCFI increased, while the sales area of commercial housing in 30 large and medium - sized cities decreased significantly. In terms of prices, pork prices rose, and most commodity prices fell [15]. 4. Last Week's Liquidity Observation - The central bank conducted a net withdrawal of 157.22 billion yuan from the open market last week through reverse repurchase operations [26]. - Last week, R007 and DR007 both decreased, the joint - stock bank inter - bank certificate of deposit issuance rate continued to decline, the national - share direct discount rate for each term increased significantly, the volume of pledged repurchase increased significantly, and the inter - bank market leverage ratio decreased overall [27][28].