周期股
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财经早报:美政府考虑允许英伟达对华出售H200芯片 国产GPU第一股摩尔线程今申购丨2025年11月23日
Xin Lang Zheng Quan· 2025-11-23 23:39
Group 1 - The MSCI China Index will officially include 26 new Chinese stocks and exclude 20 stocks after the market closes on November 24, 2025, which will lead to increased passive fund tracking for the newly included companies [6] - The latest DDR5 product series from Changxin Storage has been announced, featuring a maximum speed of 8000 Mbps and a maximum particle capacity of 24 Gb, positioning the company among the industry's top tier [12] - Xiaomi clarified that a recent fire incident in its automotive factory was due to operational errors during equipment debugging, not a design flaw in the battery itself [10] Group 2 - The full-solid-state battery production line has been established in China, with small-scale testing currently underway, promising enhanced safety and longer range for electric vehicles [7] - The A-share market is experiencing a short-term adjustment, but the fundamental factors supporting the current upward trend remain unchanged, suggesting potential investment opportunities for the upcoming spring market [8][16] - The semiconductor industry is facing potential threats due to unilateral actions from ASML Netherlands, with a call for constructive dialogue to resolve disputes and stabilize the global supply chain [13]
港股持续震荡 机构建议关注高低切换下的新机会
Mei Ri Jing Ji Xin Wen· 2025-11-17 02:15
炒股就看金麒麟分析师研报,权威,专业,及时,全面,助您挖掘潜力主题机会! 港股速报 | 港股持续震荡 机构建议关注高低切换下的新机会 每经记者|曾子建 每经编辑|袁东 今日(11月17日)早盘,港股市场再度跳空低开。 截至发稿,恒生指数报26441.70点,下跌130.76点,跌幅0.49%。 恒生科技指数报5771.51点,下跌41.29点,跌幅0.71%。 消息面,深交所公告,因广和通(00638.HK)在香港市场价格稳定期结束且相应A股上市满10个交易日,根据《深圳证券交易所深港通业务实施办法》的有 关规定,港股通标的证券名单发生调整并自2025年11月17日起生效,调入广和通。今日早盘,广和通跌超3%。 责任编辑:高佳 盘面上,科网股跌多涨少,百度、联想跌超2%,阿里巴巴低开超1%,随后股价翻红;芯片股高开,宏光半导体涨超3%,华虹半导体涨超2%,中芯国际涨 超1%;新消费概念活跃,茶百道涨超1%;黄金股普跌,赤峰黄金跌超2%;保险股低开,友邦保险跌超2%;航空股走弱,东方航空跌超4%。 后市展望: 华泰证券最新研报指出,港股市场冲高回落之后,行业间高低切演绎较为极致,今年以来相对滞涨的板块上周涨跌幅 ...
中国银河证券:市场风险偏好下降 港股风格切换加速
智通财经网· 2025-11-16 08:57
智通财经APP获悉,中国银河证券发布研报称,本周(11月10日至11月14日)港股三大指数表现分化,恒 生指数涨1.26%,报26572.46点,恒生科技指数跌0.42%,恒生中国企业指数涨1.41%。从二级行业来 看,本周日常消费零售、造纸与包装、房地产、医药生物、钢铁行业指数涨幅居前,传媒、机械、煤 炭、电气设备、半导体行业指数跌幅居前。展望未来,市场风险偏好趋于谨慎,场内热点轮动加快,港 股或延续震荡走势。建议关注以下板块:"反内卷"政策效果逐渐显现,供需格局变化下,商品价格上涨 的周期股或持续反弹;美联储降息政策面临较大不确定性,市场风险偏好下降,投资者或转向红利股寻 求防御。 中国银河证券主要观点如下: 本周港股行情表现 海外方面,11月12日,美国总统特朗普在白宫签署了国会两院通过的一项联邦政府临时拨款法案,从而 结束了已持续43天的史上最长联邦政府"停摆"。本周美联储官员表态转鹰,密集释放政策信号显示对通 胀压力担忧持续,美联储降息预期降温,市场风险偏好回落。国内方面,10月末,我国社融存量同比增 8.5%,M2同比增8.2%,环比均下降0.2个百分点。M1同比增6.2%,环比下降1个百分点。1 ...
好消息终于来了
Sou Hu Cai Jing· 2025-11-10 06:11
今天消费股的好消息终于来了,一口气来了3个,引发消费股集体暴涨: 第一,刺激消费利好出炉。11月7日,财政部发布2025年上半年中国财政政策执行情况报告,将继续实 施好提振消费专项行动。 第二,CPI持续走强。10月份,CPI环比上涨0.2%,同比上涨0.2%。 第三,海南将迎来全岛封关。12月18日海南封关后将迎来全新发展阶段,三大税收优惠,会撬动海南多 大的杠杆呢? 受这3大利好消息刺激,整个消费行业表现非常强势。 首先,海南12月18日封关发展,税收优惠确实是相当炸裂。 第一,货物"零关税"。商品税目比例从21%提升至74%(约6600个税目)。 不过,我是不太想参与海南的炒作,海南本地股,坑比较多,懂得都懂。 最后,大家最关心的行业——白酒。 今天白酒疯狂上涨,是不是行业的春天终于来了? 对于白酒,我的思路是这样的: 第一,白酒的弹性大概率是排在周期后面。经济先好转,然后在消费,消费没有那么快回复。 第二,我投资白酒还是喜欢先看业绩。业绩转向后,弹性未来会很大,我不介意多等一两个季度的,白 酒不是周期股,不玩那种预期业绩改善提前布局的玩法,这是周期股的玩法,不是消费股,这点你得清 楚。 第二,加工增值 ...
中国银河证券:市场风险偏好趋于谨慎 港股或延续震荡走势
Zhi Tong Cai Jing· 2025-11-10 00:55
Core Viewpoint - The Hong Kong stock market is expected to continue its volatile trend as year-end approaches, with a cautious risk appetite among investors. Key sectors to watch include cyclical stocks benefiting from rising downstream commodity prices, dividend stocks for defensive strategies, and sectors positively impacted by improving China-US trade relations [1][4]. Market Performance - During the week of November 3 to November 7, the Hong Kong stock market showed mixed results, with the Hang Seng Index rising by 1.29%, while the Technology Index fell by 1.20%, and the State-Owned Enterprises Index increased by 1.08% [2]. - Among the primary sectors, Energy, Financials, and Utilities saw the highest gains, with increases of 6.02%, 3.45%, and 3.14% respectively. Conversely, Healthcare, Consumer Discretionary, and Information Technology experienced declines of 3.05%, 1.80%, and 0.77% respectively [2]. Liquidity Analysis - The average daily trading volume on the Hong Kong Stock Exchange was HKD 230.53 billion, a decrease of HKD 49.99 billion from the previous week. The average short-selling amount was HKD 29.46 billion, down by HKD 2.08 billion, with short-selling accounting for 12.79% of the trading volume, an increase of 1.6 percentage points [2]. - Cumulative net inflow from southbound funds reached HKD 38.68 billion, an increase of HKD 11.19 billion compared to the previous week [2]. Valuation and Risk Appetite - As of November 7, the Hang Seng Index had a Price-to-Earnings (PE) ratio of 11.87 and a Price-to-Book (PB) ratio of 1.23, reflecting increases of 1.81% and 1.87% respectively, positioning it at the 85% and 88% percentile levels since 2019. The Hang Seng Technology Index had a PE of 22.69 and a PB of 3.30, at the 28% and 69% percentile levels respectively [3]. - The risk premium for the Hang Seng Index was calculated at 4.32%, which is -1.86 standard deviations from the 3-year rolling mean, placing it at the 6% percentile since 2010 [3]. Investment Outlook - Internationally, the U.S. Supreme Court raised questions about the legality of Trump's tariffs, leading to expectations of potential tariff reductions. In October, U.S. private sector employment increased by 42,000, significantly exceeding the expected 30,000 [4]. - Domestically, China's total goods trade value in October was CNY 3.7 trillion, a 0.1% increase, with exports at CNY 2.17 trillion (down 0.8%) and imports at CNY 1.53 trillion (up 1.4%) [4]. - The market is advised to focus on cyclical stocks due to changing supply-demand dynamics, dividend stocks for defensive positioning, and sectors benefiting from improved China-US trade relations [4].
巴克莱:股市将出现“年末涨势”,整体市场环境对股市进一步上涨构成有利支撑
Ge Long Hui A P P· 2025-10-29 13:20
Core Viewpoint - Barclays anticipates a year-end rally in the stock market due to several factors including cleaner market positioning, seasonal positive influences, resilient corporate earnings, the resumption of share buybacks, and the potential early end to quantitative tightening [1] Group 1 - Market positioning has returned to neutral levels following a correction in October, establishing a healthier foundation for the market [1] - Strong capital inflows in the U.S. market are expected to continue, while sentiment in the EU and UK markets is also improving [1] - Funds chasing corporate performance are likely to favor cyclical stocks as the year-end approaches, creating a favorable environment for further market gains [1]
震荡中孕育新主线:一份来自投资一线的策略报告
Bei Jing Shang Bao· 2025-10-24 06:24
Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the articles highlights the resilience of the Chinese economy and the strong performance of the A-share market, with major indices reaching new highs despite external uncertainties [1][4] - The technology sector, particularly AI, has shown significant growth, with the Sci-Tech 50 Index rising over 42% year-to-date, and specific funds achieving remarkable returns, such as a 95.05% yield for a fund managed by the company [2][3] - The innovation drug sector is also emphasized, with increasing transaction volumes and values indicating a transition to a new phase of innovation, despite recent market adjustments [2][3] Group 2 - The cyclical stocks have gained attention due to global market fluctuations, with a fund focused on cyclical stocks achieving over 54% returns year-to-date, driven by monetary easing and domestic economic policies [3][4] - International investors are showing interest in the A-share market, with discussions indicating a potential influx of overseas capital, particularly in high-end manufacturing sectors [4][5] - The company emphasizes a balanced investment approach, focusing on growth potential rather than specific sectors, with attention to demand, supply, technological advancements, and price effects [5][6] Group 3 - The fourth quarter is seen as a time to explore investment opportunities in emerging sectors such as AI, new consumption, and new pharmaceuticals, with discussions among fund managers highlighting the importance of identifying new growth drivers [6][7] - Specific strategies for the fourth quarter include focusing on high-cost performance assets in the technology sector, as well as a diversified approach that balances investments in financials and innovative sectors [7][8] - The company is particularly interested in high-end equipment sectors, including military equipment, and aims to identify companies with strong growth potential and high technological barriers [7]
放量!
第一财经· 2025-10-09 10:36
Market Overview - The A-share market indices all closed higher, with the Shanghai Composite Index stabilizing above 3900 points, reaching the highest level since August 2015, indicating strong bullish sentiment in the market [4] - The market showed a structural divergence, with 3109 stocks rising and 2184 stocks falling, highlighting both opportunities and risks [5][11] Trading Activity - The total trading volume in both markets exceeded 4700 billion, reflecting a significant increase of 21.63%, indicating extreme trading activity [6] - Resource stocks surged in the afternoon, driving the index to break through, while technology stocks experienced a short-term correction, creating a favorable "weight on stage, theme in play" market dynamic [6] Investor Sentiment - Institutional investors displayed a cautious and observant approach, with a tendency towards conservative positioning, as most funds opted to remain inactive [8] - Retail investors showed high enthusiasm for entering the market, driven by the "opening red" profit effect, leading to increased risk appetite and a tendency to chase market hotspots and engage in thematic investments [8] Fund Flow - There was a net outflow of funds from major players, while retail investors experienced a net inflow [7] - The overall positioning of institutions was characterized by "cautious observation + partial layout," with some funds adjusting their positions in cyclical stocks while adopting a "sell on rallies" strategy for high-valuation technology stocks [8]
金银铜等有色板块具备投资机遇 | 券商晨会
Sou Hu Cai Jing· 2025-10-09 01:04
Group 1 - The report from CITIC Securities suggests focusing on investment opportunities in the non-ferrous metal sector, particularly gold, silver, and copper, due to recent price increases driven by various global factors [1] - The surge in gold prices is attributed to the U.S. government shutdown, political uncertainty in Japan, ongoing expectations of interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve, and continued gold purchases by global central banks [1] - Concerns over the creditworthiness of the U.S. dollar and sovereign debt have led global investors to favor precious metals and cryptocurrencies, further boosting their prices [1] Group 2 - Tianfeng Securities highlights that cyclical stocks may perform well as the economic recovery deepens, with three main investment directions identified: breakthroughs in AI technology, economic recovery leading to stronger performance of cyclical stocks, and the rise of undervalued assets [2] - The report emphasizes that during the early stages of a bull market, funds tend to favor high-growth sectors, while later stages see a focus on core themes, making cyclical stocks attractive due to their low valuations and high beta characteristics [2] Group 3 - CICC's report indicates that A-shares are expected to maintain stable performance post-holiday, with a continuation of the upward trend observed since September 24 of the previous year [3] - The report notes that there has been a steady increase in domestic industrial enterprise profit growth and that the Hong Kong stock market experienced slight gains during the A-share market closure [3]
A股节后怎么走?谁会站上风口?机构最新研判来了!
天天基金网· 2025-09-30 06:19
Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the sentiment and strategies of private equity funds as they approach the National Day holiday, indicating a generally optimistic outlook for the market post-holiday, with a significant portion of funds choosing to hold high positions in their portfolios [4][6][11]. Group 1: Private Equity Fund Positioning - Over 65% of private equity funds are opting for heavy or full positions during the holiday, believing that external market disturbances will be limited and that domestic fundamentals and policy environments provide a solid safety margin [6][4]. - The overall private equity position index reached 78.41% as of September 19, marking a 0.37 percentage point increase from the previous week and reflecting a trend of increased allocations [6][4]. - The majority of private equity funds are optimistic about the market's performance after the holiday, with 70.19% expecting a gradual recovery driven by policy and capital support [9][4]. Group 2: Investment Focus Areas - The primary investment focus is on technology growth sectors, with 59.62% of private equity funds highlighting areas such as AI, semiconductors, and innovative pharmaceuticals as key opportunities [10][4]. - A significant portion of funds (21.15%) is also looking at the valuation recovery in the new energy and real estate sectors, anticipating that clearer industry policies will provide rebound opportunities [10][4]. - There is a belief that the market will exhibit a balanced style post-holiday, with 62.50% of funds expecting a rotation among technology growth, value blue chips, and leading stocks [9][10]. Group 3: Market Sentiment and Future Outlook - The sentiment among private equity funds is generally positive, with many viewing the current market as transitioning from the second to the third phase of a bull market [11][12]. - The article notes that historical data shows a greater than 70% probability of market gains following the National Day holiday, supported by liquidity from institutional investments and retail participation [11][12]. - The anticipated "slow bull" market trend suggests that while short-term volatility may occur, the long-term outlook remains favorable, particularly for technology growth sectors [12][11].