数据显示，今年1-8月，全国共有3.3亿人次申领消费品以旧换新补贴，带动相关商品销售额超过2万亿元；限额以上单位家用电器和音像器材、文化办公 用品、家具、通讯器材类商品零售额同比分别增长28.4%、22.3%、22.0%、21.1%，支撑社会消费品零售总额同比增长4.6%。 然而2025年国补已经进入"收官"阶段，据济南日报等媒体报道，最后一笔资金当前全国使用率已超80%，山东、河南等消费大省余额不足 20%，部分地区 将提前 1-2个月停补，2025年12月31日24 时全国统一关闸，2026年无同规模补贴政策。 银河证券预测"国补作为提振消费的手段之一将延续，但针对之前最受益的家电，补贴力度会明显下降，或不及2025年的力度一半。" 虽然第四批690亿元国补资金已全面下达，但近期网络上"国补是否已经停止"的热议，已经折射出国补使用率收官的紧急信号。那么，"国补退坡"后可能 带来哪些风险？对比2008-2012年前后那一轮"家电下乡"，当年的家电企业是如何应对需求透支问题的？有哪些经验和教训？如何应对"后国补时代"？ 国补收官：2026年是否延续未定 诚然，3000亿元超长期特别国债资金支持商品以旧换新，对 ...

机构：平安证券 研究员：王德安/王跟海/杨钟/徐勇 事项： 智能手机业务受存储涨价，2026 年成本端略有压力。三季度公司手机出货量超过4300 万台（同比 +0.5%），智能手机业务营收达到460 亿元（同比-3.1%），营收端下降主要是由于智能手机ASP 下降所 致，三季度公司智能手机ASP 达到1062.8 元（同比-3.6%），海外市场ASP 下降对公司手机业务造成一 定压力，但部分被中国大陆高端智能手机出货量占比提高带动ASP 上升抵消。毛利率方面，三季度公 司智能手机业务毛利率为11.1%，同比下降约0.6 个百分点。展望后续，受全球内存市场持续涨价的影 响，我们预计公司智能手机、平板、笔记本电脑在2026 年或将面临成本端的压力，其毛利率将有所承 压。 三季度IoT 与生活消费品业务营收增速回落，主要是由于国补退坡导致智能大家电收入同比减少。三季 度IoT 业务营收达到276 亿元，同比增加5.6%。其中若干生活消费产品收入同比增加20.4%，可穿戴产 品收入同比增加22.5%，智能大家电收入同比减少15.7%，这主要是由于中国大陆出货量因国家补贴退 坡及竞争加剧而减少。小米智能家电工厂已正式竣 ...

智通财经APP获悉，中国银河证券发布研报称，未来消费板块与双十一等重大线上促销的关联性将逐步 降低。消费行业需要重视"十五五"规划中消费的中长期目标;短期关注2025年12月针对2026年消费相关 政策。该行对消费行业2026年海外业务的发展持乐观观点。消费个股方面，关注市场风格切换(高切低) 过程中的高分红率优质公司，以及各细分赛道中有阿尔法的公司。 中国银河证券主要观点如下： 国补退坡逐渐体现，社零增速持续放缓 1)2025年国庆中秋假期国内出游8.88亿人次，较2024年国庆节假日7天增加1.23亿人次;国内出游总花费 8090.06亿元，较2024年国庆节假日7天增加1081.89亿元，但日均消费同比增长疲弱。年轻人出游增多， 多选择电动车自驾游，户外活动也增多，伴随着野营、电车露营现象增多，人均消费有所下降。2)2025 年双十一预售启动较早。京东、天猫/淘宝分别于10月9日和10月15日启动2025年双十一大促。整体来 看，2025年抖音、苏宁、京东、淘宝/天猫双十一大促周期预计分别为57天、44天、37天、31天，而 2024年双十一各平台促销周期为29天至35天。根据星图数据，2025年10月 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Positive" investment rating for the home appliance industry [11] Core Insights - The home appliance sector shows strong profitability resilience despite challenges from domestic subsidy reductions and external tariff impacts. The overall valuation remains at a reasonable low level, suggesting opportunities for growth in high-performing leaders and stable value recovery in established companies [2][10] Overall Industry Summary - The home appliance industry achieved a revenue growth of 7.52% year-on-year in the first three quarters of 2025, with quarterly growth rates of +13.97%, +5.46%, and +3.59% respectively. The growth trend is expected to slow down due to subsidy reductions and diminishing marginal effects [4][21] - The gross profit margin for the industry in Q3 2025 was 24.75%, reflecting a slight year-on-year decrease of 0.54 percentage points, while the gross sales difference improved by 0.64 percentage points to 16.35% [31][39] - The net profit attributable to shareholders for the first three quarters of 2025 reached 1,048.77 billion, marking a year-on-year increase of 9.76%, with Q3 net profit growing by 4.22% [38][44] White Goods - The white goods sector reported a revenue growth of 9.06% year-on-year in the first three quarters of 2025, with Q3 growth at 5.29%. The sector benefits from a reduction in domestic price competition, leading to a recovery in gross profit margins [5][27] - The net profit for the white goods sector increased by 11.32% year-on-year in the first three quarters, with Q3 showing a growth of 3.50% [43][44] Black Goods - The black goods sector experienced a revenue growth of 3.09% year-on-year in the first three quarters, but Q3 saw a decline of 2.64%. The sector's performance is influenced by a low base effect and increased non-recurring gains [6][24] - The net profit for the black goods sector surged by 37.26% in Q3, reflecting a strong recovery [42][43] Kitchen Appliances and Post-Cycle - The kitchen appliance sector faced a revenue decline of 4.09% in Q3 2025, attributed to a downturn in the real estate market and cautious consumer spending [7][25] - The net profit for the kitchen appliance sector decreased by 12.73% year-on-year in Q3 [42][43] Small Appliances - The small appliances sector achieved a revenue growth of 5.92% in Q3 2025, with the cleaning segment showing a remarkable growth of 30.70% [8][24] - The net profit for the small appliances sector increased by 16.52% year-on-year in Q3 [42][43] Upstream Components - The upstream components sector reported a revenue growth of 8.13% year-on-year in the first three quarters, with Q3 growth at 3.31%. The sector's profitability significantly improved due to order and business structure optimization [9][26] - The net profit for the upstream components sector grew by 30.29% in Q3 [42][43] Investment Recommendations - The report suggests focusing on high-growth leaders with strong organizational, technological, and brand capabilities, such as Anker Innovations, Roborock, and Ninebot. Additionally, it recommends paying attention to stable leaders like Midea Group, Haier Smart Home, and Gree Electric for value recovery opportunities [10]

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" and is maintained [8]. Core Views - The company reported a revenue of 25.393 billion yuan for the first three quarters of 2025, representing a year-on-year growth of 11.49%. However, the net profit attributable to shareholders decreased by 8.20% to 488 million yuan, and the net profit excluding non-recurring items fell by 12.47% to 451 million yuan. In Q3 2025, revenue was 7.321 billion yuan, down 6.33% year-on-year, with a net profit of 71.22 million yuan, a decline of 38.58% [2][6][14]. Summary by Sections Financial Performance - For the first three quarters of 2025, the company's gross margin was 10.15%, a decrease of 0.19 percentage points year-on-year. The operating profit for the same period was 365 million yuan, reflecting a growth of 0.99% year-on-year, with an operating profit margin of 1.44%, down 0.15 percentage points [14]. - In Q3 2025, the gross margin was 9.44%, with an operating profit of 26.64 million yuan, showing a year-on-year increase of 4.67% [14]. Market Opportunities - The company is expected to benefit from structural opportunities in the industry, including cautious domestic consumption, the rise of e-commerce, and upgrades in refrigerator structures. The air conditioning business is anticipated to gain market share through e-commerce and competitive pricing, while the refrigerator segment aims to enhance average prices and profit elasticity through structural upgrades [14]. Profit Forecast - The company forecasts net profits attributable to shareholders for 2025, 2026, and 2027 to be 649 million yuan, 716 million yuan, and 801 million yuan, respectively. The corresponding price-to-earnings ratios are projected to be 11.08, 10.04, and 8.97 times [14].

Summary of Key Points from the Conference Call Industry Overview - The home appliance industry is experiencing a shift in competition dynamics, particularly in the white goods sector, with a notable increase in the proportion of mid-to-high-end consumption driven by national subsidies [1][2][4] - Price competition for flow models has eased, returning to levels seen in April, likely due to the seasonal decline in air conditioning demand [1][2][4] - Consumer demand is currently weak, with a notable impact from the expiration of subsidies in various regions, particularly in the southwest and eastern areas of China [2][3] Company Performance Midea Group - Midea's revenue growth is expected to be in the high single digits, around 10%, but profit growth may lag due to the consolidation of assets [1][6] - The company demonstrates strong operational resilience, effectively managing inventory to adjust to market conditions [6] Haier - Haier's revenue growth is projected at 7%-8%, with double-digit profit growth anticipated due to channel reforms and reduced expense ratios [1][7] - The Casarte brand continues to perform well under national subsidy policies, contributing positively to profitability [7] Hisense - Hisense is expected to see slight increases in both revenue and profit, although its central air conditioning business faces challenges [1][8] - The company has experienced a rebound in installation card growth since July, indicating a stabilization in price competition [2][4] TCL - TCL's revenue is expected to remain flat compared to last year, with profit also stabilizing due to high base effects from the previous year [1][9] Hailong Cold Chain - Hailong Cold Chain's revenue is expected to match the first half of 2025, with strong growth in refrigeration and exports [1][10] Market Dynamics Mini LED Technology - The penetration rate of Mini LED technology has slightly decreased, influenced by subsidy reductions and cost adjustments in electronic modules [1][11] - Despite this, product iterations are expected to support higher selling prices [11] Small Appliances - The small appliance sector is witnessing significant growth, particularly in cleaning devices like robotic vacuums, with companies like Stone Technology reporting an 80% revenue growth and a 50% profit increase [1][14] - The kitchen small appliance market remains stable, with companies like Bear Electric projecting a 13% revenue increase, while New Bao is expected to face negative growth [1][15][16] Export Market - The export market is experiencing volatility, particularly in Europe and Latin America, with the latter entering its peak air conditioning sales season [3][5] - Chinese companies are shifting production to countries like Egypt and Thailand to mitigate tariff pressures [3][5] Future Outlook - The small appliance industry is expected to continue evolving, focusing on cost control and innovation to drive growth [1][17] - New product categories, such as washing robots, are anticipated to become significant growth drivers [17]

Core Viewpoint - The air conditioning retail market in China is experiencing a significant slowdown due to the impact of reduced national subsidies and high year-on-year comparison bases starting from September 2023 [1][2]. Group 1: Domestic Sales and Production - From September to November, the domestic air conditioning production is expected to decline compared to the same period last year, with decreases of -6.3%, -23.4%, and -17.6% respectively, indicating a cautious industry outlook [1][2]. - In August, domestic air conditioning shipments reached 7.737 million units, showing a year-on-year increase of 1.2%, driven by sustained high temperatures across the country [2]. - The reduction in national subsidy funding has led to various measures across provinces to control subsidy spending, including daily limits on subsidies and the suspension of certain categories [2]. Group 2: Export Trends - In August, air conditioning exports totaled 5.287 million units, reflecting a year-on-year decrease of 4.2%, although this was an improvement compared to previous production forecasts [3]. - For September to November, the expected production for household air conditioning exports shows declines of -16.6%, -7.8%, and -9.1% respectively, attributed to the transfer of U.S. orders overseas and high year-on-year comparison bases [3]. Group 3: Pricing Dynamics - The retail average price of air conditioners in the offline market has shown a recovery, rising to 4,301 yuan per unit in September after a decline from April to July [4]. - Online retail prices have also improved, with the average price reaching 2,859 yuan per unit in September, following a downward trend earlier in the year [4]. Group 4: Industry Competition and Service Upgrades - Xiaomi has announced an upgrade to a 10-year free warranty for its air conditioners, reflecting a shift in the industry from price competition to a focus on quality and service [5]. - The extension of service periods is expected to enhance consumer confidence in product quality and increase competitive pressure on manufacturers [5]. Group 5: Investment Recommendations - The current market is active, with traditional home appliance leaders lacking growth potential, while technology-related companies are performing better [6][7]. - Recommendations include companies with low valuations and high dividend yields, such as Midea Group and Haier Smart Home, as well as innovative firms like Ousheng Electric and Rongtai Health [6][7].

Group 1: Retail Sales Performance - In August, China's retail sales grew by 3.4% year-on-year, with a month-on-month decline of 0.3 percentage points, continuing a slowdown since June [1] - The decline in national subsidy consumption categories is impacting retail sales growth, with various provinces controlling subsidy spending through measures like limiting daily subsidies and reducing eligible categories [1][2] - The overall expectation is for retail sales growth to continue to slow in the coming months, influenced by high base effects from the previous year [1] Group 2: Consumer Categories Analysis - The growth rates for various consumer categories in August were as follows: communication equipment +7.3%, furniture +18.6%, cultural and office supplies +14.2%, home appliances +14.3%, and daily necessities +7.7%, with future high base pressures anticipated [2] - The automotive sector showed weak demand, with traditional fuel vehicle prices declining, resulting in a year-on-year retail sales growth of only 0.8% for automobiles in August [2] - The food and beverage sector saw a year-on-year decline of 2.3% in tobacco and alcohol retail sales, while restaurant sales grew by 2.1% year-on-year, indicating a recovery in dining consumption [2] Group 3: Export Performance - In August, China's export scale reached $321.81 billion, with a year-on-year growth of 4.4% but a month-on-month decline of 2.8 percentage points [4] - The export growth to the United States continued to decline significantly, with a year-on-year decrease of 33.1% in August, which negatively impacted overall export growth by 5.1 percentage points [4]

Overall Situation - The market is expected to remain strong for the next four months, with a potential surge in demand for vehicle registrations by year-end due to the upcoming tax changes on new energy vehicles (NEVs) in the following year [1] - If national subsidies decrease, the industry may see an overall decline of 5% to 7%, while continued subsidies could support growth [1] - The slowdown in NEV replacement rates this year is attributed to insufficient discounts from NEV manufacturers and accelerated price reductions in fuel vehicles, leading to a lack of price competitiveness [1] - The transition to electrification is irreversible, with plug-in hybrid vehicles likely to continue replacing fuel vehicles in the coming years [1] - The growth potential for fuel vehicles is now limited, leading many dealerships to consider closing or switching to NEV brands due to financial losses [1] - Currently, about one-third of BBA dealerships are operating at a loss, while two-thirds are profitable, but profits have significantly decreased [1] Brand-Specific Situations - Galaxy A Network is in an upward phase, with half of its sales coming from the Galaxy A7, which has stable monthly sales exceeding 15,000 units, potentially reaching 20,000 [2] - BYD is facing performance pressure and is unlikely to reverse this trend within the year, with a current direct sales gross margin of around 3% [2] - Customer feedback indicates that BYD's low-end intelligent driving features are not well-received, suggesting a need for improvements in battery technology instead [3] - The new P7 from Xiaopeng has received over 10,000 orders in the first hour, but actual delivery numbers are expected to drop significantly thereafter due to its niche positioning [5][6]

Core Viewpoint - Green Power (601330) has shown a significant increase in stock price, rising by 7.56% to HKD 4.84, with a trading volume of HKD 15.83 million, following the release of its mid-year performance for 2025 [1] Group 1: Financial Performance - For the first half of 2025, the company reported a revenue of CNY 1.684 billion, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 1.41% [1] - The net profit attributable to shareholders reached CNY 377 million, marking a substantial growth of 24.49% [1] - The weighted Return on Equity (ROE) was 4.56%, an increase of 0.77 percentage points [1] Group 2: Revenue Drivers - The company achieved revenue growth despite a decline in construction income, with construction revenue for the first half of 2024 at CNY 23 million and no construction revenue in the first half of 2025 [1] - Key contributors to revenue growth included an increase in sludge expansion, higher garbage volume, increased steam supply, and enhanced sales from leachate biogas purification [1] - Operating revenue for the same period increased by CNY 46 million, a year-on-year rise of 2.83% [1] Group 3: Dividend and Cash Flow - The current dividend yield for the company is 6.87% for Hong Kong shares and 4.29% for A-shares [1] - Free cash flow continued to strengthen in the first half of 2025, indicating potential for increased dividends [1] Group 4: Business Expansion - The company has been actively expanding its non-electricity businesses, particularly in heating, to mitigate the impact of national subsidy reductions [2] - In the first half of 2025, the steam supply business saw rapid growth, with a total supply of 513,800 tons, representing a significant year-on-year increase of 114.98% [2] - Several projects in the heating sector achieved breakthroughs, contributing to a notable increase in profits due to the high margin and quality cash flow associated with this business [2]