美元兑瑞郎技术分析 11月24日，美元兑瑞郎汇率维持平盘震荡，当日开盘报0.8081，收盘于0.8082，盘中最高触及0.8090， 最低下探至0.8075，全日交投区间清晰。进入11月25日上午时段，汇率延续窄幅整理态势，截至当前最 新报价为0.8083，较前一交易日收盘价微涨0.01%；日内开盘0.8082，最高上探0.8087，最低下探 0.8079。从驱动因素看，24日美股大幅上涨引发市场风险偏好升温，瑞郎的避险属性受到压制，美元兑 瑞郎未能获得有效上行动能；25日美元指数呈现弱势震荡特征，叠加中东地缘局势紧张预期有所回升， 多空因素形成博弈，致使汇率波动幅度受限。 核心驱动聚焦避险情绪与央行政策。24日纳指大涨2.69%，风险偏好升温压制瑞郎避险买盘，美元兑瑞 郎跌幅收窄；25日中东地缘紧张预期回升，瑞郎获得支撑。利差方面，美瑞10年期国债收益率分别为 4.035%、1.25%，利差优势对美元形成基础支撑。 政策预期分化明显：美联储12月降息概率82.9%，美元承压；瑞央行虽暂停加息，但强调警惕瑞郎过度 升值，口头干预预期限制其涨幅。瑞士10月贸易顺差扩大至32亿瑞郎，经济韧性为瑞郎提供隐性支撑， ...

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No industry investment rating is provided in the report. 2. Core View - The report suggests paying attention to the central bank's policy attitude. In the short - term, there is a lack of bullish drivers in the market, and under weak sentiment, there is a possibility that the TL contract will continue to decline. However, the medium - term fundamentals still provide support, and interest rates need to remain low, so medium - term long positions can still be held [1][3]. 3. Summary by Relevant Content Market Conditions - On Friday, Treasury bond futures opened higher but trended lower in the morning and fluctuated in the afternoon, with most varieties closing down, and the TL contract having the largest decline. The funding situation was loose, with DR001 falling to around 1.32%. The open - market reverse repurchase was 375 billion yuan, with a net injection of 162.2 billion yuan [1]. - Affected by the US stock market, the A - share market opened and closed lower and declined significantly today, but the bond market did not benefit. The T, TF, and TS contracts generally remained in a volatile state, while the TL contract has shown obvious declines in recent days, indicating weak trading sentiment [3]. Important Information - In the US, the non - farm payrolls added 119,000 jobs in September, far exceeding expectations, but the employment figures for the previous two months were significantly revised down by 33,000. The unemployment rate unexpectedly rose to 4.4%, reaching a four - year high. - The positive performance of NVIDIA's earnings was short - lived. The US stock market tumbled during the session, with the S&P 500 falling more than 3% from its daily high, experiencing the largest intraday reversal since the tariff storm in April. NVIDIA rose more than 5% during the session but closed down more than 3% [2]. Data | Contract | 2025 - 11 - 21 Price | 2025 - 11 - 20 Price | Price Change | 2025 - 11 - 21 Position | 2025 - 11 - 20 Position | Position Change | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | TS2512 | 102.448 | 102.458 | - 0.01 | 73,816 | 77,399 | - 3,583 | | TF2512 | 105.855 | 105.915 | - 0.06 | 153,244 | 155,300 | - 2,056 | | T2512 | 108.44 | 108.475 | - 0.035 | 279,585 | 280,931 | - 1,346 | | TL2512 | 115.59 | 115.93 | - 0.34 | 176,275 | 181,999 | - 5,724 | | TS Basis (CTD) | - 0.0063 | - 0.012 | 0.0057 | | | | | TF Basis (CTD) | 0.0033 | 0.0154 | - 0.0121 | | | | | T Basis (CTD) | 0.0802 | 0.0709 | 0.0093 | | | | | TL Basis (CTD) | 0.1601 | 0.1356 | 0.0245 | | | | | TS Main Contract Trading Volume | 29,272 | 38,948 | - 9,676 | | | | | TF Main Contract Trading Volume | 64,448 | 71,725 | - 7,277 | | | | | T Main Contract Trading Volume | 103,001 | 81,803 | 21,198 | | | | | TL Main Contract Trading Volume | 97,822 | 94,348 | 3,474 | | | | [4]

Group 1: Gold Market Insights - Goldman Sachs indicates that central banks may purchase significant amounts of gold in November to diversify reserves against geopolitical and financial risks, maintaining a price forecast of $4,900 by the end of 2026 [1] - Year-to-date, gold prices have risen by 55%, driven by economic and geopolitical concerns, increased inflows into exchange-traded funds, and expectations of further interest rate cuts in the U.S. [1] - In September, central banks purchased 64 tons of gold, up from 21 tons in August [1] Group 2: Oil Price Forecasts - Goldman Sachs has lowered its average price forecasts for Brent and WTI crude oil to $56 and $52 per barrel, respectively, due to strong global supply (excluding Russia) [2] - UBS expects Brent crude oil prices to fluctuate between $60 and $70 per barrel, with a year-end target of $62 per barrel and a 2026 target of $67 per barrel [3] Group 3: Chinese Stock Market Outlook - UBS forecasts a prosperous year for the Chinese stock market in 2026, driven by factors such as innovation and a projected 14% upside for the MSCI China Index by year-end [4] - Earnings per share are expected to grow by 10% in 2026, supported by anti-involution measures and a decrease in depreciation expenses [4] Group 4: Currency Trends - Barclays economists suggest that the USD/JPY exchange rate may continue to rise, recommending investors to remain long on USD/JPY due to Japan's fiscal policies [5] Group 5: Central Bank Policies - Goldman Sachs Asset Management predicts that the Federal Reserve may cut interest rates twice in 2026, while the European Central Bank may maintain rates and the Bank of England may resume cuts in December [6] - Morgan Stanley anticipates further rate cuts from the European Central Bank in the first half of next year, with a target for the 10-year German bond yield at approximately 2.45% by the end of 2026 [8] Group 6: Semiconductor Sector - Galaxy Securities asserts that the long-term growth logic for the semiconductor sector remains intact despite recent underperformance, emphasizing supply chain security and domestic substitution trends [11] Group 7: AI and Consumer Electronics - Galaxy Securities highlights the potential for smart glasses to become a major consumer electronics category, following the entry of major tech companies into the AI glasses market [12] Group 8: Multi-Modal AI Trends - CITIC Securities identifies the shift towards native multi-modal architectures as a pivotal point for the industry, suggesting investment opportunities in both foundational and application layers [13] Group 9: Energy Demand and Coal Prices - Huatai Securities predicts that electricity consumption growth in October may exceed 10%, supporting a positive outlook for thermal coal prices in the fourth quarter [14]

Group 1 - The Japanese yen stabilized and rebounded against the US dollar after the new finance minister indicated that the government is closely monitoring foreign exchange market fluctuations [1][2] - The USD/JPY exchange rate reached a near nine-month low before slightly rebounding, hovering around 154.20, with Tokyo's core CPI for October rising 2.8% year-on-year, indicating inflation remains above target levels [2] - The depreciation of the yen has become a focal point in political discussions, with a 4% decline against the dollar over the past month, marking the worst monthly performance since July [2] Group 2 - Market expectations for a rate cut by the Federal Reserve in December have decreased, with the probability of a 25 basis point cut dropping from 91.1% to 74.7% [3] - The US 10-year Treasury yield remained around 4.0989%, close to a three-week high, reflecting a slight increase from the previous day's close [3] - Other currencies showed mixed performance, with the euro at 1.1572 against the dollar, while the British pound hovered around 1.31440 amid political pressure, and both the Australian and New Zealand dollars experienced declines [3]

Core Viewpoint - The Bank of Japan has highlighted the downside risks to the economy for the next fiscal year and the uncertainty of trade policies affecting the global economy, indicating a cautious approach to interest rate hikes [1] Group 1: Economic Outlook - The Bank of Japan is not in a hurry to significantly raise interest rates until it is confident that the economy is on a stable path [1] - The recent policy decision did not have a substantial impact on the yen exchange rate due to market expectations [1] Group 2: Currency Implications - There is uncertainty regarding whether the Federal Reserve will lower interest rates in December, which may limit the upward potential of the yen against the US dollar in the short term [1]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint indicates that gold prices have declined significantly due to optimism surrounding potential trade agreements between the US and other countries, which has reduced the demand for safe-haven gold [1][4] - Spot gold fell by 1.28% to below $3930 per ounce, while the Shanghai gold futures contract dropped by 4.00% to 903.20 yuan per gram [1] - The decline in gold prices has reached a near three-week low, with investors awaiting major policy announcements from central banks [1] Group 2 - A survey by the London Bullion Market Association (LBMA) predicts that gold prices will reach $4980.3 per ounce in one year [2] - The Federal Reserve is expected to lower the benchmark interest rate by 25 basis points, although its forward guidance may contain mixed signals and a mildly hawkish tone [2] - Recent trends show that central banks, including the Bank of Korea, are considering increasing their gold reserves, reflecting a global trend that has contributed to rising gold prices [4]

Group 1 - US stock index futures rose in early Asian trading due to positive news regarding a comprehensive trade agreement between the US and China [1][3] - S&P 500 futures and Nasdaq 100 futures increased by 0.7% and 0.9% respectively, while major Asia-Pacific markets also saw gains [3] - On October 24, US stock markets continued their upward trend, with the S&P 500 closing up 0.8% and the Nasdaq rising 1%, both reaching new closing highs [3] Group 2 - Currency markets showed mixed results, with Australian and New Zealand dollars slightly rising, while the US dollar's performance varied against other major currencies [3] - Analysts remain cautious despite the optimistic market sentiment, with some suggesting that the current situation reflects a cooling rather than a fundamental improvement [3][4] - This week is critical for the market as central bank policies and US corporate earnings season converge, potentially leading to market volatility [4]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the articles highlights the recent decline in international precious metal futures, with COMEX gold futures dropping 1.95% to $3991.10 per ounce and COMEX silver futures falling 2.73% to $47.66 per ounce, influenced by geopolitical and economic uncertainties [1] - The SPDR Gold ETF has seen an increase of nearly 50% this year, while smaller mining ETFs like MicroSectors Gold Miners 3X Leveraged ETNs have surged over 740%, marking them as the best-performing ETFs tracked by VettaFi [1] - Factors driving the recent rise in gold prices include geopolitical tensions, central bank policies, increased inflows into ETFs, expectations of interest rate cuts, and economic uncertainties stemming from tariff and trade policy changes [1] Group 2 - CBSNEWS suggests that precious metal investments should not completely replace income-generating assets like stocks and bonds in an investment portfolio, but should not be ignored either, especially given the evident economic benefits of silver and gold investments [4] - It is recommended that precious metal investments should not exceed 10% of an investment portfolio, allowing investors to benefit from gold and silver while retaining a portion of their investments in potentially higher-yielding assets [4]

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the increasing market uncertainty due to global economic slowdown, geopolitical risks, and fluctuating central bank policies, highlighting the potential for a revaluation of gold as a safe-haven asset in this complex environment [1]. Group 1: Factors Influencing Gold Prices - Real interest rates are a crucial variable for observing gold price trends. As central banks tighten policies under high inflation, gold often faces pressure due to the lack of interest returns. However, if rates approach a peak or enter a downward trend, the decline in real returns could significantly enhance gold's pricing foundation [3]. - The performance of the US dollar and global liquidity patterns also impact gold. A temporary weakening of the dollar may lead to increased allocation of international funds towards gold and other non-dollar assets. Additionally, the trend of central banks increasing gold reserves is strengthening, as official purchases are becoming a key support for gold prices [3]. Group 2: Shifts in Gold Investment Logic - Current market valuation logic for gold is shifting from "short-term hedging" to "medium to long-term allocation." While risk aversion can drive short-term price increases, the long-term value of gold is supported by real interest rates, central bank demand, and the broader liquidity environment [5]. - Overall, the investment logic surrounding gold is becoming more diversified, serving as both a defensive asset during turbulent times and a structural beneficiary amid changes in interest rates and liquidity cycles [5].

Group 1 - European financial markets are expected to enter a cautious stabilization phase after significant declines, influenced by inflation expectations, central bank policies, fiscal pressures, and political uncertainties [1] - Eurozone member states plan to issue over €100 billion in new bonds in September, raising concerns about supply excess and higher required yields from investors [1][2] - Political risks in specific countries, such as France's government facing a confidence vote, have exacerbated fiscal concerns and widened the yield spread between French and German bonds [1][2] Group 2 - The European bond market experienced significant turbulence, with the 30-year German bond yield rising to 3.41%, the highest since 2011, and the 30-year French bond yield reaching 4.52%, the highest since 2009 [2] - Rising government bond yields are seen as a warning signal for financial markets, indicating concerns over current policy paths and leading to higher term premiums [2] - The DAX index fell by 2.29%, and major U.S. stock indices also faced pressure, reflecting the impact of rising bond yields on equity markets [2] Group 3 - U.S.-EU trade tensions have escalated, with the Trump administration imposing higher tariffs on EU steel and aluminum products, potentially leading to a trade conflict [3] - The inflation data released for the Eurozone showed a 2.1% year-on-year increase in consumer prices for August, indicating persistent inflationary pressures [3][4] Group 4 - European Central Bank (ECB) Executive Isabel Schnabel reinforced hawkish expectations, suggesting current rates should remain unchanged and warning of potential inflation risks from tariffs and fiscal expansion [4] - Market expectations indicate that the ECB is unlikely to take further action this year, contributing to rising long-term bond yields [4] Group 5 - The market anticipates an 85% probability of a 25 basis point rate cut by the Federal Reserve on September 17, with internal divisions within the Fed regarding the timing of such cuts [5] - Upcoming economic data, particularly related to the U.S. labor market, is expected to significantly impact market conditions and Fed decision-making [5][6] Group 6 - The focus of the market has shifted from "whether to cut rates" to "the pace and frequency of rate cuts," with any comments from ECB President Lagarde potentially influencing the Eurozone bond market [6] - Investor sentiment remains fragile, with concerns that buying on dips may be replaced by selling on highs, leading to negative market effects [6]