不争的事实是，钱越来越难赚了。 过去二十年，你不需要很优秀，只需要胆子大，敢折腾，站在风口上就能飞起来。房地产、互联网、外贸，三大造富机器轮番启动。现在机器都慢下来 了，进入了存量博弈时代。 你赚的每一分钱，都可能是别人亏的钱。这意味着对个人能力、信息渠道、资源整合的要求呈指数级上升，绝大多数人的体感就是，钱越来越难赚了。 这种感受并非无病呻吟，它已被无数个体的真实经历所印证：它是豆瓣"上班这件事"小组里，那位35岁大厂员工被裁后，面对房贷车贷的深夜叹息；它是 小红书上，那位月薪八千的"沪漂"，靠着极致的精打细算，才为自己挣得一丝安全感 ；它也是知乎上，那位中小企业主在后疫情时代订单断崖式下跌后 的无奈倒闭。 这种焦虑如此普遍，以至于"消费降级""副业刚需""向下兼容"，甚至是"上班和上进之间选择上香"， 都从段子变成了无数人的生活现实。 面对这个时代课题，许多深刻的分析将矛头指向了宏观结构：我们正从"增量市场"变为"存量市场"，过去依赖上述三大造富机器的模式已经落幕，产业升 级的阵痛带来了结构性失业。许多人发现，不是自己不努力，而是自己努力的那个领域，"地板正在消失" 。 这些洞察无疑是精准的，但是，这些解 ...

Group 1 - The commercial real estate sector is facing unprecedented challenges due to economic slowdown and weak consumer demand, leading to rising vacancy rates and shrinking rental negotiation space [1][2] - Historical experiences from markets like the US and Japan indicate that commercial real estate is a "slow-moving asset" that typically lags behind macroeconomic recovery, often requiring two years or more to stabilize after an economic downturn [2][3] - In China, the retail and dining sectors are experiencing the slowest recovery, with shopping center vacancy rates nearing 20%, while office buildings and hotels are rebounding faster due to the resumption of business activities [2][3] Group 2 - State-owned enterprises (SOEs) are deemed essential for urban renewal projects due to their ability to handle large-scale funding and long-term investment cycles, providing necessary stability during economic uncertainty [2][3] - The role of SOEs is not seen as excessive intervention but rather as a necessary responsibility to support urban renewal efforts [3] - The operational phase of urban renewal, which is crucial for project success, requires the flexibility and responsiveness of private enterprises, as they can adapt quickly to market changes [4][6] Group 3 - The current slow progress in urban renewal is attributed to misaligned governance structures, where operational teams are often integrated into engineering logic, hindering independent decision-making [7][8] - Data shows that companies like China Resources Land and Longfor Group have demonstrated stable revenue growth and high occupancy rates, indicating the importance of effective operational management in the current market [7][8] - The shift from ROI to NOI and cash flow metrics is necessary for evaluating the viability of projects in the current market environment [11][12] Group 4 - To resolve existing contradictions in urban renewal, adjustments are needed across five levels: organizational independence, administrative management transformation, government coordination, financial evaluation methods, and capability upgrades [8][9][11] - A clear division of responsibilities is essential, with SOEs providing a safety net, private enterprises driving innovation, and government facilitating coordination to enhance overall urban asset efficiency [13]

作者 / 吴 静 编辑 / 黄大路 设计 / 张 萌 这是莲花集团CEO冯擎峰在铃轩同学5期第四模块主题为全球化升级的课程开场中提出的困惑。 时间是2025年8月17日，地点在学员企业常州坤泰，一家从事新能源汽车先进动力总成、制动系统、转向系统以及智慧底盘系统零部件的综合性生产商 和车辆底盘系统技术方案提供商。 冯擎峰百思不得其解的原因在于，从全球消费市场来看，虽然汽车行业排在房地产、食品医疗、健康医疗、电子消费品和能源产业之外，位居第六，规 模达2.5万亿至3万亿美元，但汽车产业的产业链带动效应高达5倍，意味着其间接影响的市场规模超过10万亿美元。 面对这样一个体量庞大、拉动效应显著的行业，为什么投行却步了？经过分析，冯擎峰认为，这背后的本质是因为车市进入了"零和博弈"。 他说："大家都说新能源来了，颠覆性的东西来了，但是新能源颠覆了什么吗？没有。市场还是这么大的市场，它不增长了。不增长意味着什么？不增 长意味着零和博弈。" 零和博弈又意味着什么？当市场总量停止扩张，一个玩家的增长必然意味着另一个玩家的份额被侵蚀。零和博弈下的残酷本质，是行业竞争性质发生根 本改变——从"共同把蛋糕做大"的创新驱动，转变为" ...

Group 1 - The current employment situation is characterized by severe polarization, with companies increasingly demanding versatile skills from employees [8][10] - There is a shift from specialized roles to a requirement for employees to handle multiple responsibilities, complicating recruitment for headhunters [9][10] - The job market is particularly challenging for those with average skills, as they are now prioritized for layoffs [12][13] Group 2 - The education system is misaligned with market demands, leading to a surplus of graduates in fields that are no longer in high demand [19][20] - The transition from a growth market to a stable market means fewer job opportunities, resulting in a reverse talent flow [20][21] - Companies are increasingly focused on retaining talent that meets evolving industry standards, necessitating continuous adaptation and skill enhancement [25][26] Group 3 - The importance of being adaptable and responsive to market signals is emphasized, as those who can quickly adjust will seize opportunities [21][25] - Every industry has its own barriers to entry, and understanding the criteria for success within these industries is crucial for career advancement [25][26] - The ultimate goal should be profitability, rather than concerns about prestige or status within the industry [27]

Core Viewpoint - The article emphasizes the importance of product capability, technological barriers, and comprehensive industry chain capabilities in the stock market, suggesting that investors will favor companies with superior product and R&D capabilities in this phase [1]. Group 1: Investment Insights - In the stock market, investors are likely to invest in companies that demonstrate better product capabilities, R&D capabilities, and overall industry chain capabilities [1]. - The article highlights that many companies can earn money in the incremental market but struggle to transition to the next phase, which requires a higher standard of founder DNA [1]. Group 2: Event Promotion - An event led by Wu Shichun is scheduled from September 21 to 23, focusing on exploring innovation in the Sichuan Luzhou area and seeking new growth engines [4][5]. - The event aims to connect entrepreneurs with key industry players and investors, facilitating deep exchanges and collaborative opportunities [9]. Group 3: Targeted Industries - The event will cover various sectors, including robotics, smart manufacturing, low-altitude economy, satellite communication, and the intersection of technology and consumer markets [7][21][23]. - Participants will gain insights into capital trends and strategies for breaking through in their respective industries [9].

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the challenges faced by Chinese entrepreneurs, particularly those born in the 60s and 70s, as they encounter their first "loss year" in 2024, marking a significant test in their careers [2][3]. Group 1: Sustainable Development Challenges - Chinese entrepreneurs are now confronted with the major issue of achieving sustainable development, which is described as their "second examination" in their careers [3]. - The domestic market's competitive landscape has undergone profound changes, necessitating a focus on enhancing core technological capabilities and brand marketing while maintaining cost and scale advantages [4]. - The unique advantage of China's large-scale customized manufacturing system presents opportunities in overseas markets, but challenges such as geopolitical tariffs, supply chain integration, talent acquisition, brand building, and community environment must be navigated [4]. Group 2: Personal Growth and Resilience - The challenges faced by entrepreneurs are seen as enriching their career experiences, potentially leading to greater resilience and maturity over the next few years [5]. - For entrepreneurs in their 50s facing such critical challenges, this period is viewed as a valuable life experience and a journey of growth [6].

Group 1 - Geely Holding Group announced the signing of a merger agreement between Geely Automobile and Zeekr, with Geely acquiring all remaining shares of Zeekr, allowing shareholders to choose cash or Geely shares as compensation [1] - Following the "One Geely" strategic integration plan, Geely has made significant progress in execution, reflecting a broader trend among automakers to consolidate after years of brand expansion [1][4] - The automotive market in China is transitioning from an incremental market to a stock market, with a 13.8% year-on-year increase in June sales, but experts indicate that real demand is declining [2][3] Group 2 - The retail sales of automobiles in China showed zero growth from January to May, indicating a decline in real purchasing power despite policy stimuli [3] - Many automakers are shifting focus to export markets and reducing domestic operations to enhance efficiency and ensure stable business performance [3][4] - Geely's total sales for the first half of 2025 exceeded 1.93 million units, a 30% increase year-on-year, with new energy vehicle sales surpassing 1 million units, reflecting the success of the "One Geely" strategy [4] Group 3 - The restructuring of Geely's marketing division into a more focused approach aligns with the industry's shift from a "big and complete" strategy to a "small and precise" one [6] - The automotive industry is encouraged to adopt a "focus" strategy, concentrating on fewer models to enhance competitiveness in the evolving market landscape [6][7] - A three-step strategy for focusing on core products includes refining best-selling models, mimicking successful competitors, and understanding customer needs to create "explosive" products [7] Group 4 - The automotive industry is urged to avoid price wars and instead aim for long-term strategic adjustments in response to national policies emphasizing "anti-involution" [8]

Core Viewpoint - The company reported significant declines in revenue and net profit for 2024 and Q1 2025, reflecting ongoing challenges in the integrated stove industry due to a sluggish real estate market and changing consumer preferences [1][2]. Financial Performance - In 2024, the company achieved revenue of 1.376 billion yuan, down 35.68% year-on-year, with a net profit of 11 million yuan, down 95.49% [1]. - Q4 2024 revenue was 363 million yuan, a decrease of 36.15% year-on-year, with a net profit of -4 million yuan [1]. - For Q1 2025, revenue was 163 million yuan, down 53.31% year-on-year, with a net profit of -54 million yuan [1][2]. Industry Context - The integrated stove market in China is experiencing a downturn, with a retail market value of 17.3 billion yuan in 2024, down 30.6% year-on-year, and online retail sales declining by 38.84% [2]. - The decline is attributed to reduced demand for new home renovations due to the ongoing adjustment in the real estate market and a shift in consumer preference towards more cost-effective alternatives [2]. Profitability and Cost Management - The company's net profit for 2024 fell significantly due to revenue decline and relatively fixed costs [2]. - In Q1 2025, the gross profit margin was 40.18%, showing a slight improvement of 0.02 percentage points quarter-on-quarter, despite a year-on-year decline [2]. - The expense ratios for sales, management, and R&D increased to 45.92%, 17.25%, and 14.48% respectively in Q1 2025, influenced by reduced revenue scale [3]. Strategic Initiatives - The company is focusing on the stock housing market by establishing a renovation division aimed at promoting kitchen upgrades in older homes, with a target of over 200 demonstration stores by 2025 [3]. - The company is also developing a second growth curve through water washing products and exploring new product lines such as gas water heaters and water purifiers [3]. - Additionally, the company is investing in emerging industries through its Super Fund, which has already invested in three projects [3]. Investment Outlook - The company, as a leader in the integrated stove sector, is facing significant pressure from the real estate market downturn and weakened consumer demand [4]. - EPS estimates for 2025 and 2026 have been lowered to 0.23 yuan and 0.27 yuan respectively, with a new estimate for 2027 at 0.34 yuan [4]. - The target price is set at 14.8 yuan, maintaining a "recommended" rating based on long-term market penetration and strategic adjustments [4].

Core Viewpoint - Qingdao Beer is acquiring 100% equity of Jimo Yellow Wine Factory for 665 million yuan as a strategy to seek new growth points amid slowing beer industry growth [1][10]. Industry Overview - The Chinese beer industry has experienced a decline since reaching a peak production of 35 million kiloliters in 2013, with a 28.6% decrease compared to 2013 levels by 2023 [3][6]. - In 2024, the beer production is projected to be 35.213 million kiloliters, a year-on-year decrease of 0.6% [4]. - The industry is now in a mature market phase, where growth relies on capturing market share from competitors rather than overall market expansion [6]. Company Performance - Qingdao Beer reported a slight increase in net profit of 1.81% to 4.345 billion yuan in 2024, but revenue declined by 5.3% to 32.14 billion yuan, ranking third in the industry [6][8]. - Revenue across key regions, including Shandong, North China, and South China, showed varying degrees of decline, with Shandong's sales dropping from 22.869 billion yuan in 2023 to 22.095 billion yuan in 2024 [8][9]. Acquisition Rationale - The acquisition of Jimo Yellow Wine is aimed at diversifying Qingdao Beer's product line and expanding market channels, potentially providing a complementary sales effect between beer and yellow wine [12][10]. - Jimo Yellow Wine, established in 1949, has a small revenue scale of 166 million yuan in 2024, with a year-on-year growth of 13.5% [16]. Market Dynamics - The beer industry is facing intensified competition, particularly from brands like China Resources Snow Beer and AB InBev, which is pressuring Qingdao Beer's growth [6][10]. - The seasonal nature of beer sales has been highlighted, with the fourth quarter traditionally being a low sales period for Qingdao Beer [13].

Core Viewpoint - The Chinese retail industry is undergoing a significant generational transformation, particularly in the food and beverage sector, where traditional supermarkets are facing challenges and new retail formats are emerging [1][2][8]. Group 1: Market Transformation - The traditional supermarket model, which thrived for three decades, is nearing its end, with many leading supermarkets exiting the market in recent years [1][8]. - The shift from an incremental market to a stock market is fundamentally changing the competitive landscape, with a focus on efficiency improvement and market share competition [1][8]. - The future may see a landscape with over 2,000 super-large stores, 30,000 large stores, 200,000 medium stores, and 3 million small stores in China [1][2]. Group 2: Value Chain Restructuring - The value chain in the food and beverage industry is being restructured, moving away from a brand-led model to one where channel power is shifting towards the end consumer [1][9][12]. - The previous model of "big brands + big products + deep distribution" is becoming ineffective, as the market is now characterized by an oversupply of products [9][10]. - The emergence of "buyer solutions" is changing the dynamics of competition, where retailers and brands must adapt to consumer needs more effectively [12][14]. Group 3: Consumer Behavior and Market Dynamics - Consumer decision-making is becoming more complex, with a multitude of options available for similar products, leading to increased competition among brands [12][32]. - The relationship between retail and consumer preferences is evolving, with a focus on understanding consumer needs through various contexts and scenarios [25][26]. - The market is witnessing a trend towards the integration of different product categories, leading to the emergence of new retail formats that cater to diverse consumer demands [30][31]. Group 4: Future Opportunities - The ongoing transformation presents opportunities for food and beverage companies to innovate and adapt to the changing retail landscape [31][32]. - Companies must focus on niche markets and establish long-term collaborative relationships with retailers to succeed in this new environment [34][35]. - The ability to understand and respond to consumer insights will be crucial for brands to thrive in the increasingly competitive market [34][33].