投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2011】1778 号 期货研究报告 宝城期货国债期货早报（2025 年 11 月 21 日） ◼ 品种观点参考—金融期货股指板块 时间周期说明：短期为一周以内、中期为两周至一月 | 品种 | 短期 | 中期 | 日内 | 观点参考 | 核心逻辑概要 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | TL2512 | 震荡 | 震荡 | 偏弱 | 震荡整理 | 短线降息预期下降，中长期宽松 预期仍存 | 备注： 1.有夜盘的品种以夜盘收盘价为起始价格，无夜盘的品种以昨日收盘价为起始价格，当日日盘收盘 价为终点价格，计算涨跌幅度。 2.跌幅大于 1%为弱势，跌幅 0~1%为偏弱，涨幅 0~1%为偏强，涨幅大于 1%为强势。 3.偏强/偏弱只针对日内观点，短期和中期不做区分。 ◼ 主要品种价格行情驱动逻辑—金融期货股指板块 品种：TL、T、TF、TS 日内观点：偏弱 中期观点：震荡 参考观点：震荡整理 核心逻辑：昨日国债期货延续震荡整理，不过品种间走势有所分化。当前国债期货处于震荡整理行 情，市场驱动较弱。消息面，昨日公布的 1 年期与 5 年期 LP ...

看着手机银行里黄金资产的数字，55岁的刘阿姨有点不敢相信自己的眼睛。 仅仅一年时间，她之前"被套"的黄金投资不仅全部解套，还实现了超过50%的收 益。 这个早晨，她和跳舞的姐妹们讨论的不再是菜价，而是该不该继续加仓黄金。 这样的场景不仅发生在广场舞大妈之间。 2025年11月，国内黄金ETF总规模已经突破2300亿元，较年初暴增超过200%。 数百亿资金正以前所未有的速度涌 入这个曾经相对小众的市场。 与此同时，在大洋彼岸，一场可能影响全球资金流向的权力更迭正在悄悄进行。 美国总统特朗普已在白宫椭圆形办公室宣布，下任美联储主席人选的面试 工作正式启动。 财政部长贝森特进一步披露，特朗普将在12月中旬与最后三名候选人会面，最终人选有望在圣诞节前敲定。 五位候选人组成了一个"兼顾理论与实践"的组合，包括现任美联储理事沃勒、鲍曼、前理事沃什、白宫国家经济委员会主任哈西特，以及贝莱德集团管理层 里德。 市场分析显示，这些候选人多数呈现鸽派倾向，预示着未来可能维持甚至加大宽松货币政策。 美联储领导层的更迭正发生在全球市场的敏感时刻。 2025年9月，美联储启动了降息周期，将联邦基金利率下调25个基点。 随后在10月再次 ...

来源：市场资讯 （来源：懒人财知道） 周四盘中，现货黄金再现过山车走势，亚市盘中遭遇猛烈抛售，自日内高点4110.22美元/盎司大幅下 挫，随后在4045.95美元/盎司位置触底反弹，目前下跌0.43%报4060.71美元/盎司。 究其原因，一方面，美联储周三公布会议纪要显示，尽管美联储上个月决议降息，但决策官员意见分 歧，并警告降低借贷成本可能会破坏为平抑通胀所做的努力。另一方面，9月份非农就业报告定于周四 发布。据预测显示，美国9月新增就业岗位5万个，失业率预计维持在4.3%的稳定水平。 受上述因素影响，投资者下调了对进一步宽松货币政策的预期，造成了日内的下跌。芝商所(CME) 的"美联储观察"工具显示，交易员目前认为12月降息的机率只有30%左右。 相信在此形势下，不少朋友都有些迷茫，下面，就让我们一起来看看今天的交易员和大V预判和解读。 大宝上海金融： 早盘黄金的下跌主要因重要数据停止发布所影响。美国10月就业报告停止发布，11月就业数据12月16日 才能发布，导致将于12月9日召开的美联储12月议息会议再无重要数据作参考，直接影响了投资者对12 月降息的预期，直接导致了金价的下跌。 今日行情出现剧烈 ...

机构分析指出，美联储10月政策会议纪要或将更清晰地揭示政策制定者之间存在的意见分歧。当时决策 层不仅面临官方数据缺位的困境，还需在相互矛盾的市场信号中权衡，同时正值主席鲍威尔任期最后几 个月面临领导层交接的特殊时期。上月会议罕见地出现了同时支持宽松与紧缩货币政策的异议声音。在 美联储以10-2的投票结果决定降息25个基点后，鲍威尔在新闻发布会上承认存在"严重分歧观点"。由于 美国政府停摆导致10月会议前官方数据发布中断，官员们只能依赖替代信息进行评估，这可能加剧了他 们对进一步降息日益增长的谨慎情绪。"越来越多委员认为，当前至少应该暂停观察一个周期，"鲍威尔 上月对记者表示。尽管政府经济数据正逐步恢复发布（9月非农就业报告将于周四公布），但完整缺失 数据的发布排期仍未明确，且无法确定在12月美联储下次会议前能获得哪些信息。（格隆汇） ...

在东京债券市场，日本长期国债普遍因遭到抛售而价格下跌，导致收益率不断上扬，接连突破历史高 点。19日，由于投资者购债意欲低下，作为长期利率指标的新发行10年期国债收益率一度升至 1.775%，为2008年6月以来最高。 在东京外汇市场，自高市当选日本自民党总裁进而当选日本首相后，日元重新进入下降通道，不断走 软。近日，由于媒体纷纷报道日本政府拟推出大规模财政刺激计划，日元贬值势头再度加剧，日元对美 元汇率下探至1美元兑换155日元左右。（完） 新华社东京11月19日电（记者刘春燕）由于日本首相高市早苗力推积极财政政策并主张保持宽松货币政 策等多重因素，投资者对日本政府财政状况恶化的忧虑不断上升，日本金融市场连日来遭遇股债汇"三 杀"。 截至19日，东京股市两大股指连续4个交易日下跌，日经股指累计下跌2700多点。投资者担心高市早苗 日前发表的涉台严重错误言论导致日中关系持续恶化，不仅百货、运输、酒店等与入境消费关系密切的 行业股票大跌，一些倚重中国市场的公司股票也因业绩前景难料遭到投资者抛售。此外，由于纽约股市 近日频繁调整，三大股指多次全面下跌，日本股市很多投资者选择获利了结、离场观望。 责任编辑：刘万里 ...

新华财经东京11月19日电（记者刘春燕）由于日本首相高市早苗力推积极财政政策并主张货币政策应保 持宽松，市场对日本财政状况恶化的忧虑不断上升，日本最近两日连续遭遇股债汇"三杀"。 截至19日，东京股市两大股指连续4个交易日下跌，日经股指累计跌去2700多点。由于投资者担心中日 关系恶化，不仅百货、运输、酒店等与入境消费关系密切的行业股票大跌，一些在倚重中国市场的公司 也因业绩变得不透明遭到投资者抛售。此外，由于纽约股市近日频繁调整，三大股指多次全面下跌，很 多投资者选择获利了结、离场观望。 在东京债券市场，高市早苗上台以来，投资者对日本政府财政恶化的忧虑不断加深，各种期限的长期国 债普遍遭到投资者抛售，导致长债价格下跌、收益率不断上扬，接连突破历史高点。19日，由于投资者 购债意欲低下，作为长期利率指标的新发10年期国债收益率一度升至1.775%，创下2008年6月以来的最 高。 在东京外汇市场，10月3日日元对美元汇率还徘徊于1美元兑147日元区间，其后随着高市当选日本自民 党总裁并进而当选日本首相，日元重新进入下降通道，不断走软。近日，由于此间媒体纷纷报道日本政 府拟推出大规模财政刺激计划，市场对政府增发 ...

内外需同时"哑火"，日本经济在年末拉响警报。受美国关税政策的影响逐步显现，今年第三季度日本国内生产总值（GDP）实际按年率计算下降1.8%，这是 日本经济在六个季度中首次呈现负增长态势。外需急剧收缩是此轮负增长的核心推手，但还面临着内需疲软局面，叠加近期新任首相高市早苗表态引起政治 波动，本就步履维艰的日本经济陷入三重困局。 外需收缩、内需疲软 日本内阁府17日发布的初步统计结果显示，日本三季度实际国内生产总值（GDP），剔除物价变动因素后的实际GDP较上季度减少0.4%，按年率计算下降 1.8%。这是自2024年第一季度以来，日本季度GDP增速首次呈现负增长。 具体数据显示，三季度，日本个人消费环比增幅仅为0.1%；在进出口方面，三季度日本出口增速下降1.2%，进口增速下降0.1%。此外住房投资继续疲软， 与二季度相比下降9.4%。 旅游经济冲击 日本内需不振的态势已趋于长期化。日本内阁府近期将2025财年经济增长预期从1.2%下调至0.7%，显示出对经济前景的深度忧虑。而高市早苗近期的言 论，更令日本经济雪上加霜。 高市早苗7日在国会答辩时就"台湾有事"表示，如果伴随出动军舰和使用武力，可能会构成"存亡危 ...

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content found Group 2: Core View of the Report - The release of the Fed's loose monetary policy expectations still requires a certain period. The Fed Chairman has explained balance - sheet expansion. The October FOMC meeting signaled that a December rate cut remains uncertain while strengthening the subsequent "rate cut + balance - sheet expansion" monetary policy approach. In the loose monetary policy cycle, combined with potential spot shortages, it is recommended to buy silver on dips. The reference operating range for the main contract of Shanghai Gold is 880 - 966 yuan/gram, and that for the main contract of Shanghai Silver is 11001 - 12366 yuan/kilogram [4] Group 3: Summary According to Related Catalogs Market Quotes - Shanghai Gold rose 0.06% to 915.24 yuan/gram, Shanghai Silver rose 0.11% to 11359.00 yuan/kilogram; COMEX Gold was reported at 3984.80 dollars/ounce, COMEX Silver at 47.85 dollars/ounce; the US 10 - year Treasury yield was reported at 4.11%, and the US dollar index at 99.72 [2] - The Fed's hawkish voting member expressed concerns about inflation and even signaled a rate hike. Gold and silver prices rose and then fell, remaining in a short - term trading range [2] Fed Officials' Speeches - 2026 FOMC voting member and hawkish official Hamark emphasized inflation risks in her speech early today. She believes that monetary policy may not be well - prepared to deal with the current inflation level, and the current economic environment is not conducive to further rate cuts. She also said that the Fed does not need to raise rates to combat inflationary pressures, but admitted that this view "may change" [2] - New York Fed President Williams said that the neutral interest rate is difficult to estimate, showing 1% at the model level. He also emphasized the tenacity of inflation and believes it is right to bring inflation down to 2% as soon as possible [3] - Fed Governor Milan continued to state that a 50 - basis - point rate cut is reasonable and expects the Fed to cut rates further in December [3] Gold and Silver Data - **COMEX Gold**: The closing price of the active contract was 3984.80 dollars/ounce (down 0.14% from the previous day), the trading volume was 18.36 million lots (up 6.90%), the open interest was 52.88 million lots (up 2.43%), and the inventory was 1177 tons (down 0.09%) [6] - **LBMA Gold**: The closing price was 3986.50 dollars/ounce (up 0.46%) [6] - **SHFE Gold**: The closing price of the active contract was 917.80 yuan/gram (up 0.61%), the trading volume was 32.39 million lots (down 30.13%), the open interest was 33.62 million lots (up 0.61%), the inventory was 87.82 tons (unchanged), and the settled funds were 493.66 billion yuan (up 1.22%) [6] - **AuT + D**: The closing price was 917.51 yuan/gram (up 0.88%), the trading volume was 40.59 tons (down 31.84%), and the open interest was 254.88 tons (down 0.20%) [6] - **COMEX Silver**: The closing price of the active contract was 47.85 dollars/ounce (down 0.03%), the open interest was 16.58 million lots (up 1.75%), and the inventory was 14975 tons (unchanged) [6] - **LBMA Silver**: The closing price was 48.69 dollars/ounce (up 2.26%) [6] - **SHFE Silver**: The closing price of the active contract was 11427.00 yuan/kilogram (up 1.34%), the trading volume was 102.78 million lots (down 26.10%), the open interest was 68.88 million lots (up 1.19%), the inventory was 639.94 tons (down 2.47%), and the settled funds were 212.52 billion yuan (up 2.55%) [6] - **AgT + D**: The closing price was 11421.00 yuan/kilogram (up 1.61%), the trading volume was 460.06 tons (down 9.58%), and the open interest was 4303.142 tons (up 0.55%) [6]

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content Group 2: Core Viewpoints of the Report - For the TL2512 variety, the short - term view is oscillatory, the medium - term view is oscillatory, the intraday view is weak, and the overall view is oscillatory consolidation. The core logic is that the short - term expectation of interest rate cuts decreases, while the long - term expectation of a loose monetary policy still exists [1]. - For varieties such as TL, T, TF, and TS, the intraday view is weak, the medium - term view is oscillatory, and the reference view is oscillatory consolidation. In the short term, due to the strong resilience of macro - economic indicators, there is no strong need for a comprehensive interest rate cut, and the upward momentum of treasury bond futures is limited. In the long term, a relatively loose monetary environment is needed to stabilize the demand side, which strongly supports treasury bond futures. Overall, treasury bond futures will mainly oscillate and consolidate in the short term [5]. Group 3: Summary According to Related Catalogs 1. Variety Viewpoint Reference - Financial Futures Stock Index Sector - The time - cycle definitions are: short - term is within one week, and medium - term is from two weeks to one month. For the TL2512 variety, the short - term is oscillatory, the medium - term is oscillatory, the intraday is weak, and the view is oscillatory consolidation. The core logic is the change in interest rate cut expectations [1]. 2. Main Variety Price Market Driving Logic - Financial Futures Stock Index Sector - The varieties include TL, T, TF, and TS. The intraday view is weak, the medium - term view is oscillatory, and the reference view is oscillatory consolidation. The short - term and long - term driving logics are based on macro - economic indicators and the need for a monetary environment [5].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - There is no information about the report industry investment rating in the provided content. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The recent weak and volatile prices of gold and silver are due to the tight overseas liquidity, but this risk has been reduced for the time being [4]. - The release of the Fed's loose monetary policy expectations still requires a certain period. The October FOMC meeting signaled the uncertainty of a December rate cut and strengthened the subsequent "rate cut + balance - sheet expansion" monetary policy approach [4]. - In the loose monetary policy cycle, combined with the potential tight physical market, it is recommended to go long on silver on dips. The reference operating range for the main contract of Shanghai gold is 880 - 966 yuan/gram, and for the main contract of Shanghai silver is 11,001 - 12,366 yuan/kilogram [4]. 3. Summary According to Related Catalogs 3.1 Market Quotes - Shanghai gold rose 0.63% to 916.38 yuan/gram, and Shanghai silver rose 1.58% to 11,381.00 yuan/kilogram. COMEX gold was reported at 3,990.40 US dollars/ounce, and COMEX silver was reported at 47.86 US dollars/ounce. The US 10 - year Treasury yield was reported at 4.17%, and the US dollar index was reported at 100.16 [2]. - After President Trump's speech on resolving the government shutdown, the market's expectation of liquidity tightening was alleviated. The better - than - expected US October ADP employment data eased the recession trading after the release of the ISM manufacturing PMI, and the price of silver outperformed that of gold [2]. 3.2 Influencing Factors - The accumulation of the TGA account balance due to the US government shutdown is an important reason for the recent tight market liquidity. Trump's speech indicates that liquidity repair will occur soon, and the prices of gold and silver have stabilized [3]. - The number of new ADP employment in the US in October was 42,000, higher than the expected 28,000 and the previous value of - 32,000. The US ISM non - manufacturing PMI was 52.4, higher than the expected 50.8 and the previous value of 50. The overseas recession expectation has eased, and the gold - silver ratio has declined [3]. 3.3 Data Summary - For gold, the closing price of the active COMEX contract increased by 1.25% to 3,990.40 US dollars/ounce, the trading volume decreased by 29.77% to 171,800 lots, the CFTC - reported open interest increased by 2.43% to 528,800 lots, and the inventory remained unchanged at 1,178 tons [6]. - For silver, the closing price of the active COMEX contract increased by 2.06% to 47.86 US dollars/ounce, the trading volume increased by 2.82% to 1,390,900 lots, the open interest decreased by 1.55% to 680,700 lots, and the inventory decreased by 1.42% to 656.17 tons [6].