Group 1 - The A-share real estate sector experienced a strong rally near the market close, with several stocks hitting the daily limit up, including Huaxia Happiness and Shenzhen Deep Housing A [1] - Hong Kong's property stocks also saw significant gains, with Oceanwide Holdings rising over 27% and Longfor Group increasing nearly 21% [1] - Real estate ETFs, such as Huaxia Real Estate ETF and Yinhua Real Estate ETF, rose over 3% [1] Group 2 - The real estate ETFs track the CSI All Share Real Estate Index, with the top ten weighted stocks including Poly Developments, Vanke A, and China Merchants Shekou [5] - The real estate sector is benefiting from positive news, particularly regarding debt restructuring progress among several real estate companies [5][6] - In June, the sales of the top 100 real estate companies saw a year-on-year decline of 21%, with total sales amounting to 370.7 billion yuan [7] Group 3 - The overall market is stabilizing due to policy support and debt restructuring, but there is significant regional differentiation, with core cities and high-quality projects being favored [7] - The sales figures for the top 100 real estate companies showed a cumulative year-on-year decline of 11% in the first half of the year, indicating a seasonal drop in the second quarter [7] - Market participants are cautious about the real estate sector's recovery, with concerns about the sustainability of policy effects and the timing of new supportive measures [7]

Group 1: Market Overview - The domestic coal tar market has stabilized after a decline since May, with mainstream transaction prices rising from 3100 CNY per ton in early May to around 3300 CNY by the end of June, indicating a clear stabilization trend for the second half of the year [1] - The coal tar market experienced a "V-shaped" price movement from January to May, reaching near five-year lows, primarily due to the cancellation of hazardous waste policies affecting regional coal tar [1][2] - The supply-demand balance has improved significantly since May, with reduced supply and stable demand contributing to a favorable market environment for coal tar [2] Group 2: Supply Dynamics - As of June 27, the capacity utilization rate of major coking enterprises in China was 73.57%, a decrease of 2.7 percentage points, indicating a potential reduction in coal tar supply [2] - Many large intermediaries have reduced their outflow of coal tar, leading to a decrease in actual transaction volumes, while some coking enterprises are lowering prices to clear inventory [2] - The exit of approximately 5 million tons of coking capacity in Shandong will significantly reduce coal tar supply in that region, suggesting a potential end to the current adjustment phase [2] Group 3: Demand Trends - The operating rate of domestic coal tar deep processing enterprises remained stable in June, between 51% and 53%, while carbon black enterprises saw an increase in their operating rate to 62.39%, up 9.8 percentage points from the beginning of the month [3] - Despite being in a loss position, deep processing enterprises in resource-rich regions are beginning to see marginal profits, supported by rising carbon black consumption [3] - The restart of maintenance plans for some deep processing enterprises is expected to increase their operating rates, indicating a potential for improved demand in July [3] Group 4: Market Sentiment - Traders are increasingly adopting a wait-and-see approach, with reduced transaction volumes and some inventory flowing into traders' warehouses, suggesting a potential for a new round of speculative activity [4] - Although there is potential for demand growth in July, the traditional off-peak season in July and August may limit significant demand increases, leading to a cautious market sentiment [4] - Overall, the market is expected to experience a phase of consolidation in July, with limited volatility, while the second half of the year may see a gradual warming trend in demand [4]

Core Viewpoint - The real estate market in China is experiencing a stabilization phase in the first half of 2025, supported by a series of government policies aimed at boosting demand and managing risks [2][3][4]. Policy Measures - Approximately 170 provinces and cities have introduced over 340 policies in the first half of 2025, maintaining a high frequency of policy implementation [2][4]. - Key policy areas include inventory reduction, demand expansion, new models, and risk mitigation, with a focus on supporting housing demand through various measures such as lowering mortgage rates and promoting urban renewal [4][5]. - The central government has consistently emphasized the need to stabilize the real estate market, with significant policy announcements made in March, April, and June [3][4]. Market Performance - The first half of 2025 saw a notable performance in core cities, with new residential sales in Beijing and Shanghai increasing by approximately 4%, while Guangzhou experienced a 16% increase and Shenzhen saw over 30% growth [7]. - In Shenzhen, a total of 51,104 residential units were signed in the first half of 2025, representing a year-on-year increase of 38.8% [7]. - The sales performance of major real estate companies indicates that 47.8% of their sales came from second-tier cities, while first-tier cities contributed 40% of sales, reflecting a shift in market dynamics [8]. Price Trends - The average price of new homes in 100 cities increased by 0.97% from January to May 2025, indicating a structural price increase driven by improved housing quality [9]. - The second-hand housing market has shown a decline in prices, with a cumulative drop of 2.88% from January to May 2025, as the market continues to adjust [11]. Future Outlook - The overall sales volume in the real estate market is expected to remain under pressure, with an estimated total of 900 million square meters of new residential sales for the year [10][11]. - The market is likely to continue experiencing a divergence in performance across different cities and projects, influenced by policy measures, supply-demand dynamics, and urban effects [10].

Investment Rating - The industry rating is "Outperform the Market" [7] Core Viewpoints - The report indicates that the real estate development investment in China from January to May 2025 was 3.6 trillion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 10.7%. The new construction area was 230 million square meters, down 22.8% year-on-year, and the completed area was 180 million square meters, down 17.3% year-on-year. The sales area of new commercial housing was 350 million square meters, a decrease of 2.9% year-on-year, with residential sales down 2.6% year-on-year. The sales amount of new commercial housing was 3.4 trillion yuan, down 3.8% year-on-year, with residential sales down 2.8% year-on-year [2][12] - The report highlights that various cities are implementing policies to support the real estate market, including loan issuance for urban renewal projects and adjustments to housing policies to ease purchasing conditions. These measures are expected to enhance market expectations and stabilize the real estate sector [2][12] - In the short term, the report emphasizes the pressure for stable growth and the need for stronger policy support for the real estate market. In the medium to long term, it suggests that the opening of the interest rate reduction channel in Europe and the U.S. may provide more room for China's monetary and fiscal policies, which could further stabilize the real estate market [2][12] Summary by Sections High-Frequency Data - As of June 20, 2025, the average price of bulk P.O 42.5 cement in China was 367.1 yuan/ton, a decrease of 1.3% week-on-week, and down 3.5% year-on-year. The average price of glass (5.00mm) was 1180.0 yuan/ton, down 0.7% week-on-week, and down 28.6% year-on-year [3][21] Sector Review - The report notes that the Shanghai Composite Index fell by 0.51%, and the Shenzhen Composite Index dropped by 1.6%. The building materials sector index decreased by 1.42%. Among sub-sectors, fiberglass manufacturing increased by 2.23%, while cement manufacturing fell by 2.2% [4][56] Investment Recommendations - The report suggests focusing on three main investment lines: 1. High-quality companies benefiting from stock renovation, such as Weixing New Materials, Beixin Building Materials, and Tubao [5] 2. Undervalued stocks with long-term alpha attributes, such as Sankeshu, Dongfang Yuhong, and Jianlang Hardware [5] 3. Leading cyclical building materials companies with bottoming fundamentals, such as Huaxin Cement, Conch Cement, China Jushi, and Qibin Group [5]

另外第二点，上方仍然有10日均线的压制指数，从这一点来看的话，没有把多条均线形成突破的话，这 里面对于指数这块也会形成一定的压制。另外第三点，尽管今天的市场出现放量了，但是沪深两市量能 放大幅度仍然不是特别大，沪深两市今天最终小幅放大了500多亿的成交量，这说明什么？说明尽管今 天市场出现反攻了，但是大资金进场推动的信号仍然不明显，从这一点也不符合市场确认见底的信号。 还有就是我们会发现在今天推动市场上涨的权重板块的拉升幅度也比较有限，像银行、有色，包括券商 板块拉动，但是它们整体的涨幅太小了，基本上在1%左右，尤其是它们底部的量能也没有放出来，更 何况今天市场凡是上涨的品种基本上都是前期的老热点，像前期受到了中东局势影响的石油军工等等一 些方向，包括跨境支付的相关方向带来一波反冲的机会。但是这些老热点可以活跃市场确实能带来一些 短线的赚钱效应，但是这些老热点很难推动市场形成大的向上突破，形成大的低点和底部。所以综合来 看的话，今天市场确实呢给出了一个初期的企稳动作，但是还没有完全确认垫底。 三大指数集体放量反弹，超4400只个股上涨，市场企稳见底了吗？我们当下到底应该怎么办？ 和讯投顾高璐明表示，首先先说观 ...

Core Viewpoint - The real estate market is gradually stabilizing, with new home prices in major cities showing signs of recovery, although some cities continue to experience price declines [1][3]. Group 1: Market Trends - In May, new home prices in Hangzhou increased by 0.8% month-on-month, leading the 70 cities surveyed, while Shanghai followed with a 0.7% increase [3][10]. - The average price of new homes in Shanghai reached a historical high of 90,691 yuan per square meter in May, driven by the introduction of high-end properties [11]. - The overall sales area of new homes in May was 70.53 million square meters, with a sales value of 70.56 billion yuan, reflecting a month-on-month increase of 10% and 13% respectively [4]. Group 2: Regional Analysis - In Hangzhou, the average price of new homes has surpassed 10,000 yuan per square meter, indicating a shift towards higher quality housing [3]. - The real estate market in South China, particularly in Nanning, is primarily driven by "just demand," with a significant portion of sales focused on affordable and improvement-type housing [14][15]. - The market in Nanning has seen a continuous increase in new home prices for six months, with a month-on-month increase of 0.4% in May [13]. Group 3: Policy and Future Outlook - The State Council has emphasized the need for policy optimization to stabilize expectations and activate demand in the real estate market [4]. - Analysts suggest that the current market differentiation is a norm, with core cities showing resilience while lower-tier cities face ongoing price declines [3][9]. - Future developments in Hangzhou and Shanghai are expected to push new home prices higher, with several high-end projects set to enter the market [8][12].

行 业 华福证券 建筑材料 2025 年 06 月 03 日 研 究 建筑材料 受开竣工走弱影响，水泥玻璃价格继续偏弱 投资要点： 行 业 定 期 报 告 据央行 2025Q1 金融机构贷款投向统计报告，2025Q1 末，人民币房地 产贷款余额 53.54 万亿，同比+0.04%，增速比上年末高 0.2pct，一季度增加 6197 亿元，其中个人住房贷款余额 37.9 万亿元，同比-0.8%，增速比上年 末高 0.5 个百分点，一季度增加 2144 亿元；湖南出台"湘十条"，政策包 括加大契税等支持力度、积极推进"以旧换新"、盘活存量房地产开发土 地、支持收购存量商品房用作保障性住房等十大措施；湖北省住建厅表示， 加快构建房地产发展新模式，打造"好房子"，运用新材料、新工艺、新 技术，推进数字家庭建设；河南省政府办公厅印发《提振消费专项行动实 施方案》，提出要稳定住房消费，出台更多增量政策；广西调整个人购买 首套、二套住房契税征收税率；广州 5 月二手住宅网签量 9228 套，同比 +17.7%；合肥购房补贴政策延续至 2026 年 5 月 14 日；重庆回收 323 宗闲 置土地，拟回购金额超过 435 亿 ...

一线城市，上海和深圳有望率先企稳。 从租售比和二手房成交看，一线城市整体差异不大。虽然深圳的租金回报率相对偏低，但其租金价格更 抗跌。北京、上海、广州、深圳二手房成交占比分别为66.4%、63.2%、60.6%、64.6%，均已接近 稳态水平，较2024年全年分别提高4.2、6.4、0.1和7.6个百分点。 上海和深圳的库存去化周期明显好于北京和广州，新房去化周期分别为9.7和13.1个月，其中核心城区 库存已降至10个月左右。北京、广州的新房去化周期分别为19.9和23.7个月，仍高于18个月的库存警 戒线。 一线城市，上海和深圳有望率先企稳；二线城市，成都、呼和浩特、南昌的企稳条件更为 成熟。 文：国金宏观宋雪涛/联系人张馨月 基于 《房地产市场筑底还有多远》 中所提出的判断房地产市场企稳的三个指标，我们进一步对一线城 市和二线城市进行比较，分析可能率先企稳的几个城市。 一线城市的库存积压主要集中在远郊地区。 北京、上海、广州、深圳核心城区的狭义库存去化周期分 别为17.6、10.3、21.0、8.6个月，非核心城区去化周期分别为40.1、17.1、27.5、16.3个月。 上海和深圳的土拍市场表现也更好 ...

【环球网财经综合报道】国金证券近期的研报显示，随着积压需求释放接近尾声，4月房地产市场"小阳春"成色不足，市场分化进一步加剧。二手房表现优 于新房，一线及二线部分城市呈现企稳迹象，有望率先走出市场调整周期。 报告进一步分析显示，当前房地产市场尚未完全企稳，但在租金回报率和30年期国债收益率的比价关系中，4月百城租金回报率达到2.3%，与30年期国债收 益率的利差较年初回升至42BP。国金证券认为，当租金回报率提升至2.5%以上时，房地产市场有望实现量价稳态的长期稳定。 二手房成交占比的提升也印证了市场结构的变化。1至4月，18个样本城市二手房成交占比达到59.0%，较2024年全年提高6.7个百分点，表明市场正加速从 成长期迈向成熟期。预计到2026年一二季度，这一比例或将突破70%。 库存方面，我国狭义库存仍处于高位，但广义库存已回落至2010年水平，去化压力主要集中在存量现房。住宅新规实施及房企拿地策略调整或将缓解新增 供给与存量现房间的替代关系，现房库存的积压对未来新房销售的冲击逐步减弱。 综合租金回报比、二手房成交占比及库存压力等因素，国金团队认为，一线城市的上海与深圳、二线城市中的成都、呼和浩特及南 ...

金十数据5月23日讯，由中国房地产业协会指导，上海易居房地产研究院、克而瑞主办的"2025房地产上 市公司测评研究"发布研究成果。《2025房地产上市公司测评研究报告》及2025年房地产上市公司综合 实力50强、细分领域单项榜正式发布。报告提到，进入2024年四季度，在一系列政策支持下，房地产市 场成交等多项指标出现改善和企稳迹象，房地产行业信心有所恢复。从拿地情况看，2024年各企业拿地 选择高度趋同，一二线城市核心地块是多数房企的共同选择。头部房企依托资金优势，持续强化对高能 级城市优质土地资源的战略性增储，重点地块竞争激烈，多数中小型房企受制于流动性压力收缩投资半 径，市场分化明显。2025一季度以来，市场成交逐步止跌回稳，于房企而言，需要积极把握结构性机 会，挖掘不同城市不同购房群体的结构性需求，提升货值变现能力，有效推动销售增长和资金回笼。 报告：2025一季度以来，房地产市场成交逐步止跌回稳 ...