Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2. Core Viewpoints - Both industrial silicon and lithium carbonate futures are currently in a large - range oscillatory operation. For industrial silicon, the 2511 contract is expected to operate between 7,700 and 10,000, and for lithium carbonate, the 2511 contract is expected to operate between 65,000 and 100,000 [6][31][32]. 3. Summary by Directory Industrial Silicon Futures - **Mid - term Market Analysis** - Mid - term trend: Industrial silicon futures are in large - range oscillatory operation. The spot price increased last week. As of September 19, the 421 price in Xinjiang was 9,000 yuan/ton, in Yunnan 9,800 yuan/ton, and in Sichuan 9,900 yuan/ton. The AI report shows the daily price is in a sideways phase, and the main long - position camp has a slight advantage. The 2511 contract is expected to operate between 7,700 and 10,000 [6][7]. - **Variety Trading Strategy** - Last week's strategy: Trade by buying at low prices in the large - range operation. - This week's strategy: Trade by buying at low prices in the large - range operation [10][11]. - **Related Data** - As of April 19, 2024, SHFE cathode copper inventory was 300,045 tons, an increase of 322 tons from the previous week, at a relatively high level compared to the past five years. LME copper inventory was 122,125 tons, with a cancelled warrant ratio of 25.73%, at a relatively low level compared to the past five years [13][17]. Lithium Carbonate Futures - **Mid - term Market Analysis** - Mid - term trend: Lithium carbonate futures are in large - range oscillatory operation. The spot price increased last week. As of September 19, the market price of battery - grade lithium carbonate was 73,250 yuan/ton, and industrial - grade was 71,600 yuan/ton. The AI report shows the futures are in a downward channel, and there is no obvious long - short bias among the main players. The 2511 contract is expected to operate between 65,000 and 100,000 [31][32]. - **Variety Trading Strategy** - Last week's strategy: Consider grid trading within the range. - This week's strategy: Consider grid trading within the range [35]. - **Related Data** - As of April 19, 2024, SHFE electrolytic aluminum inventory was 228,537 tons, a decrease of 3,228 tons from the previous week, at a relatively low level compared to the past five years. LME aluminum inventory was 504,000 tons, with a cancelled warrant ratio of 66.03%, at a relatively low level compared to the past five years [37][38].

Group 1 - The core viewpoint indicates that the domestic PTA futures market is experiencing slight fluctuations, with the main contract priced at 4686.00 yuan/ton, reflecting a minor increase of 0.04% [1] - Supply side analysis shows that the PTA weekly average capacity utilization rate is at 74.95%, an increase of 4.30% from the previous week, with domestic PTA production reaching 138.8 million tons, up by 7.77 million tons [1] - Demand side insights reveal that polyester plant operations have seen minor fluctuations, with polyester load recovering to 91.6%, while terminal operations in Jiangsu and Zhejiang remain stable, and raw material stocking is cautious [1] Group 2 - Inventory analysis indicates that PTA inventory has slightly decreased but remains high overall, with social inventory days at 10.84 days (down by 0.11 days) and factory inventory days at 3.84 days (down by 0.06 days) [1] - The outlook for the PTA market suggests that while downstream operations have recovered to 91.6%, terminal operations remain limited, with weaving machine operations unchanged at 66%, leading to a slight increase in downstream inventory [2] - The processing fee for PTA has decreased significantly, currently around 120 yuan/ton, and low processing fees are expected to impact operations, with potential maintenance plans for facilities like INEOS [2]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No investment rating information is provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints - **Methanol**: The current trading logic is the transmission of port pressure to the inland. Although there is seasonal stocking demand and new device stocking increment in the inland later, the port will continuously form a reverse flow impact. The current price is benchmarked against the inland price, and the inland behavior is crucial. Xingxing is expected to start operation in early September, but the inventory is still accumulating. The reverse flow can relieve port pressure but will impact the inland valuation. Currently, the valuation and inventory are average, and the driving force is weak. Wait before bottom - fishing, considering import variables such as India's purchase of Iranian methanol and unplanned maintenance [2]. - **Plastic (Polyethylene)**: The inventory of Sinopec and PetroChina is neutral year - on - year. The upstream is destocking, and the social inventory is flat. The downstream raw material and finished product inventories are neutral. The overall inventory is neutral. The 09 basis is around - 110 in North China and - 50 in East China. The foreign markets in Europe, America, and Southeast Asia are stable. The import profit is around - 200, with no further increase for now. The price of non - standard HD injection molding is stable, and other price differences are fluctuating. The LD is weak. The maintenance in September is flat compared to the previous period, and the domestic linear production has decreased recently. Pay attention to the LL - HD conversion and US quotes. The pressure from new devices in 2025 is large, and focus on the commissioning of new devices [6]. - **PP (Polypropylene)**: The upstream and mid - stream of polypropylene are destocking. The basis is - 60, the non - standard price difference is neutral, and the import profit is around - 700. The export situation has been good this year. The non - standard price difference is neutral. The European and American markets are stable. The PDH profit is around - 400, the propylene price is fluctuating, and the powder production start - up is stable. The拉丝 production arrangement is neutral. The subsequent supply is expected to increase slightly month - on - month. The downstream orders are average currently, and the raw material and finished product inventories are neutral. Under the background of over - capacity, the pressure on the 01 contract is expected to be moderately excessive. If the export volume continues to increase or there are many PDH device overhauls, the supply pressure can be alleviated to a neutral level [8]. - **PVC**: The basis is maintained at 01 - 270, and the factory - delivery basis is - 480. The downstream start - up is seasonally weakening, and the willingness to hold goods at low prices is strong. The mid - upstream inventory is continuously accumulating. The northwest devices have seasonal overhauls in summer, and the load center is between the spring overhaul and the high - production period in Q1. In Q4, focus on the commissioning and export sustainability. The recent export orders have declined slightly. The coal sentiment is positive, the cost of semi - coke is stable, and the profit of calcium carbide is under pressure due to PVC overhauls. The export counter - offer of caustic soda is FOB380. Pay attention to whether the subsequent export orders can support the high price of caustic soda. The comprehensive profit of PVC is - 100. Currently, the static inventory contradiction is accumulating slowly, the cost is stable, the downstream performance is average, and the macro situation is neutral. Pay attention to exports, coal prices, commercial housing sales, terminal orders, and start - up [8]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Methanol - **Price Data**: From August 28 to September 3, 2025, the power coal futures price remained at 801. The Jiangsu spot price increased from 2235 to 2253, the South China spot price increased from 2255 to 2250, the Lunan converted - to - futures price remained at 2505 on most days with a 10 - point increase on September 3, the Southwest converted - to - futures price remained at 2480 on most days with a 5 - point increase on September 2, the Hebei converted - to - futures price decreased by 30 points on September 3, the Northwest converted - to - futures price increased from 2655 to 2658, the CFR China price remained at 259 on most days with a 1 - point increase on September 2, and the CFR Southeast Asia price remained at 322. The import profit increased from 1 to 16, the main contract basis increased from - 140 to - 135, and the MTO profit on the disk remained at - 1237 [2]. Plastic (Polyethylene) - **Price Data**: From August 28 to September 3, 2025, the Northeast Asian ethylene price remained at 840 on most days. The North China LL price remained at 7170 on September 1 - 3 after a decline, the East China LL price decreased from 7350 to 7285, the East China LD price decreased from 9625 to 9600, the East China HD price decreased from 7550 to 7430, the LL US dollar price remained at 860, the LL US Gulf price remained at 840. The import profit decreased from - 150 to - 218, the main futures price decreased from 7358 to 7247, the basis decreased from - 140 to - 100, the two - oil inventory remained at 65, and the warehouse receipt remained at 8263 on September 2 - 3 [6]. PP (Polypropylene) - **Price Data**: From August 28 to September 3, 2025, the Shandong propylene price remained at 6550 on most days with a 30 - point increase on September 1. The Northeast Asian propylene price remained at 760. The East China PP price decreased from 6920 to 6885, the North China PP price decreased from 6983 to 6928, the Shandong powder price decreased from 6830 to 6780, the East China copolymer price decreased from 7190 to 7140, the PP US dollar price remained at 860, the PP US Gulf price remained at 980. The export profit increased from - 22 to - 14, the main futures price decreased from 7020 to 6954, the basis remained at - 90 on most days with a 10 - point increase on September 1, the two - oil inventory decreased from 67 to 65, and the warehouse receipt decreased from 14055 to 13802 [8]. PVC - **Price Data**: From August 28 to September 3, 2025, the Northwest calcium carbide price decreased from 2350 to 2300 on September 1. The Shandong caustic soda price decreased from 887 to 882 on September 1. The calcium carbide - based PVC price in East China decreased from 4780 to 4760, the ethylene - based PVC price in East China remained at 5500, the calcium carbide - based PVC price in South China remained at 5450, the calcium carbide - based PVC price in the Northwest decreased from 4500 to 4470 on September 2. The import US dollar price (CFR China) remained at 710, the export profit increased from 481 to 523, the Northwest comprehensive profit remained at 356, the North China comprehensive profit remained at - 244, and the basis (high - end delivery product) remained at - 160 [8].

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints - For methanol, port inventory has significantly accumulated, imports are high, and inland supply is expected to return. As traditional demand enters the peak season, attention should be paid to whether demand can support after the return of inland supply. If inventory deteriorates significantly, methanol may experience a valuation decline [1]. - For polyethylene, overall inventory is neutral, 09 basis is around -110 in North China and -50 in East China, external markets in Europe, America, and Southeast Asia are stable, import profit is around -200 with no further increase for now. Non - standard HD injection molding prices are stable, other spreads are fluctuating, and LD is weakening. Attention should be paid to LL - HD conversion and US quotations, as well as the commissioning of new devices in 2025 [7]. - For polypropylene, upstream Sinopec and PetroChina and mid - stream inventories are decreasing. The basis is -60, non - standard spreads are neutral, import profit is around -700, and exports have been good this year. PDH profit is around -400, propylene is fluctuating, and powder production starts are stable. Future supply is expected to increase slightly, and downstream orders are average. If exports continue to increase or there are many PDH device overhauls, supply pressure can be alleviated [7]. - For PVC, the basis is maintained at 01 - 270, downstream start - up is seasonally weakening, and the willingness to hold goods at low prices is strong. Mid - and upstream inventories are continuously accumulating. Attention should be paid to commissioning and export sustainability in Q4, and static inventory contradictions are accumulating slowly. Cost is stable, downstream performance is mediocre, and the macro situation is neutral [7]. Summary by Commodity Methanol - **Price Data**: From August 25 - 29, 2025,动力煤期货 remained at 801, Jiangsu spot price dropped from 2302 to 2222, and other regional prices also showed certain changes. Import profit remained at 322, and the daily change of盘面MTO profit was 0 [1]. - **Analysis**: Port inventory accumulation is obvious, imports are high, and inland supply is expected to return. Traditional demand will enter the peak season later, and attention should be paid to the relationship between supply and demand and inventory changes [1]. Polyethylene - **Price Data**: From August 25 - 29, 2025, Northeast Asia ethylene remained at 840 (except for a slight increase on August 27), and prices of various regions in China and related indicators such as import profit, basis, and inventory also changed. The主力期货 price dropped by 71 on August 29 compared with August 25 [7]. - **Analysis**: Overall inventory is neutral, external markets are stable, import profit has no further increase, non - standard HD injection molding prices are stable, and LD is weakening. Attention should be paid to LL - HD conversion, US quotations, and new device commissioning [7]. Polypropylene - **Price Data**: From August 25 - 29, 2025, prices of raw materials such as Shandong propylene and Northeast Asia propylene, and prices of various regions in China and related indicators such as export profit, basis, and inventory all changed. The主力期货 price dropped by 46 on August 29 compared with August 25 [7]. - **Analysis**: Upstream and mid - stream inventories are decreasing, the basis is -60, non - standard spreads are neutral, imports are at a loss, and exports are good. Future supply is expected to increase slightly, and downstream orders are average. Supply pressure can be alleviated under certain conditions [7]. PVC - **Price Data**: From August 25 - 29, 2025, prices of raw materials such as Northwest calcium carbide and Shandong caustic soda, and prices of different production methods in various regions and related indicators such as export profit, comprehensive profit, and basis all changed. The price of电石 - based PVC in East China dropped by 20 on August 29 compared with August 25 [7]. - **Analysis**: The basis is maintained at a certain level, downstream start - up is seasonally weakening, mid - and upstream inventories are accumulating, and attention should be paid to commissioning and export sustainability in Q4, as well as cost, downstream performance, and the macro situation [7].

Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant information provided Core Views - For methanol, port inventory has significantly accumulated, imports are high leading to high inventory, and the expected return of inland supply is on the horizon. As traditional demand enters the peak season later, it's necessary to focus on whether demand can support after the return of inland supply. If inventory deteriorates significantly, methanol may experience a valuation decline [1] - For polyethylene, the inventory of the two major oil companies is neutral year-on-year, with the upstream accumulating inventory and the coal - chemical sector reducing inventory. The overall inventory is neutral, with the 09 basis around -150 in North China and -100 in East China. Import profit is around -100 with no further increase for now. Attention should be paid to the LL - HD conversion and new device commissioning [5] - For polypropylene, the upstream two - oil inventory is accumulating while the mid - stream is reducing inventory. The basis is -60, and the non - standard price difference is neutral. Exports have been good this year. With over - capacity, the 09 contract is expected to face moderate to excessive pressure, which can be alleviated to neutral if exports continue to expand or PDH device maintenance increases [5] - For PVC, the basis remains at 09 - 150, and the downstream start - up rate is seasonally weakening. The mid - upstream inventory reduction has slowed down. Attention should be paid to production commissioning and export sustainability from July to August. The current static inventory contradiction is accumulating slowly, and factors such as exports, coal prices, and terminal orders should be monitored [5] Summary by Product Methanol - Price data shows that from 2025/08/12 to 2025/08/18, the daily change of动力煤期货is 0, Jiangsu spot drops by 18, and other regional prices also have different degrees of decline [1] Polyethylene - From 2025/08/12 to 2025/08/18, Northeast Asia ethylene price remains unchanged, while prices in North China LL and East China LL decline, and other data also show corresponding changes [5] Polypropylene - From 2025/08/12 to 2025/08/18, Shandong propylene and Northeast Asia propylene prices remain stable, while prices in East China PP and other regions decline, and the basis changes from -50 to -60 [5] PVC - From 2025/08/12 to 2025/08/18, Northwest calcium carbide price drops by 50, Shandong caustic soda price rises by 20, and other prices also show corresponding changes, with the basis (high - end delivery product) changing from -70 to -170 [5]

1. Report's Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content 2. Core View of the Report - The glass futures market is expected to maintain a volatile pattern in the short - term, with a tug - of - war between weak reality and policy expectations. Mid - term directional breakthroughs depend on the actual implementation of capacity - clearing policies and the substantial recovery of demand during the traditional peak seasons of "Golden September and Silver October". The market's kinetic energy conversion depends on inventory reduction rates and the pace of macro - level positive news realization [14] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Futures Market 3.1.1 Contract Quotes - On August 13, 2025, the FG2601 glass futures contract oscillated around the moving average during the night and early sessions. In the afternoon, short - sellers gained the upper hand, pushing the price down to the daily low and closing with a negative line. The price dropped by 19 yuan/ton, a 1.54% decline, and closed at 1214 yuan/ton. The trading volume was 2.2177 million lots, and the open interest was 1.0237 million lots [2] 3.1.2 Variety Prices - All 12 glass futures contracts closed lower. The total open interest of the variety was 1.8795 million lots, a decrease of 59,402 lots from the previous trading day. The open interest of the active contract FG2601 increased by 88,800 lots [5] 3.1.3 Related Quotes - On the day, put options on glass outperformed call options [8] 3.2 Spot Market - The spot price of glass continued to be weak. Prices in Northeast China remained stable, while prices in other regions were under pressure and declined [10] 3.3 Influencing Factors 3.3.1 Supply - Demand Factors - Supply side: The daily melting volume of float glass in production reached 159,600 tons, a 0.38% increase month - on - month. The operating rate was 75.34%, and the capacity utilization rate was 79.78%. The weekly output increased by 0.16% to 1.117 million tons. In August, there were 2 cold - repaired and 2 restarted production lines, with capacity remaining basically unchanged. Demand side: The demand for real - estate completion did not improve. Deep - processing enterprises faced difficulties in collecting funds, and new orders decreased year - on - year. They mainly focused on consuming raw - sheet inventories [11] 3.3.2 Inventory Analysis - The overall inventory of glass enterprises increased from a downward trend. It rose by 2.348 million weight boxes, a 3.95% increase, reaching a total of 61.847 million weight boxes. Inventories of glass enterprises in all regions increased [13]

1. Report Industrial Investment Rating - Not provided in the content 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The overall supply pressure of PVC is increasing, with an expected increase in production scheduling next week due to fewer planned maintenance activities. The current demand may remain sluggish, and the overall inventory is at a high level. The PVC2601 is expected to fluctuate within the range of 4915 - 5025. The market outlook is bearish [7][8][9]. - The bullish factors include supply resumption, cost support from calcium carbide and ethylene, and export benefits. The bearish factors are the rebound in overall supply pressure, high - level and slow - consuming inventory, and weak domestic and foreign demand. The main logic is the strong overall supply pressure and the poor recovery of domestic demand [12][13]. 3. Summaries According to Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Daily Views - **Supply Side**: In July 2025, PVC production was 2.00461 million tons, a month - on - month increase of 0.67%. This week, the capacity utilization rate of sample enterprises was 79.46%, a month - on - month increase of 0.03 percentage points. The production of calcium carbide enterprises was 336,105 tons, a month - on - month increase of 3.55%, and the production of ethylene enterprises was 139,810 tons, a month - on - month increase of 9.48%. Supply pressure increased this week, and production scheduling is expected to increase significantly next week [7]. - **Demand Side**: The overall downstream operating rate was 42.85%, a month - on - month increase of 0.800 percentage points, lower than the historical average. The operating rates of downstream profiles, pipes, and films were 36.91%, 32.09%, and 76.92% respectively, with varying degrees of decline compared to the previous period, while the operating rate of downstream paste resin was 74.54%, a month - on - month increase of 0.720 percentage points. Shipping costs are expected to rise, and domestic PVC export prices are competitive. Current demand may remain sluggish [8]. - **Cost Side**: The profit of calcium carbide method was - 252.2756 yuan/ton, with a month - on - month increase in losses of 104.00%, lower than the historical average. The profit of ethylene method was - 488.965 yuan/ton, with a month - on - month increase in losses of 2.00%, lower than the historical average. The double - ton price difference was 2,690.05 yuan/ton, with a month - on - month profit increase of 0.20%, higher than the historical average, which may lead to an increase in production scheduling [8]. - **Other Aspects**: On August 14, the price of East China SG - 5 was 4,950 yuan/ton, and the basis of the 01 contract was - 174 yuan/ton, with the spot at a discount to the futures. Factory inventory was 337,163 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 2.36%, while social inventory was 480,800 tons, a month - on - month increase of 7.32%. The main position is net short, with an increase in short positions. The overall cost is weakening, and the PVC2601 is expected to fluctuate within the range of 4915 - 5025 [9]. 3.2 PVC Market Overview - The report presents a comprehensive overview of the PVC market, including prices, production, inventory, and operating rates of different regions and methods. For example, the prices of various PVC products in different regions showed varying degrees of decline compared to the previous period, and the production of calcium carbide and ethylene methods both increased [15]. 3.3 PVC Futures Market - **Basis Trend**: The report shows the historical trend of the PVC futures basis, which helps to understand the relationship between spot and futures prices [17]. - **Price and Volume Trends**: It presents the price and trading volume trends of PVC futures, including the opening, high, low, and closing prices, as well as the moving average trends [21]. - **Spread Analysis**: Analyzes the spread trends of the main contracts of PVC futures, such as the 1 - 9 and 5 - 9 spreads [23]. 3.4 PVC Fundamental Analysis - **Calcium Carbide Method - Related**: It includes the price, cost, profit, operating rate, and inventory trends of raw materials such as semi - coke, calcium carbide, liquid chlorine, raw salt, and caustic soda in the calcium carbide method [26][29][31][33]. - **Supply Trend**: Analyzes the production capacity utilization rate, production, and profit trends of calcium carbide and ethylene methods in PVC production, as well as the daily and weekly production and maintenance volume trends of PVC [38][41]. - **Demand Trend**: Studies the sales volume, pre - sales volume, production - sales ratio, apparent consumption, and downstream operating rate trends of PVC, as well as the relationship between PVC demand and real estate investment, infrastructure investment, and other macro - economic indicators [43][45][54]. - **Inventory Situation**: Analyzes the inventory trends of exchange warrants, calcium carbide factory warehouses, ethylene factory warehouses, and social inventories, as well as the inventory days of production enterprises [58]. - **Ethylene Method - Related**: Presents the import volume of vinyl chloride and dichloroethane, PVC export volume, and relevant price spread trends in the ethylene method [60]. - **Supply - Demand Balance Sheet**: Displays the monthly supply - demand trends of PVC, including export, demand, social inventory, factory inventory, production, and import [63].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content 2. Core Views of the Report - The supply side shows that the planned asphalt production in August 2025 is 2.413 million tons, with a month - on - month decrease of 5.1% and a year - on - year increase of 17.1%. The capacity utilization rate has increased this week, and the refineries have increased production, which will increase supply pressure next week [8]. - The demand side indicates that the current demand is lower than the historical average, with the heavy - traffic asphalt, building asphalt, and waterproofing membrane开工率 (operating rates) mostly lower than the historical average, while the modified asphalt and road - modified asphalt开工率 are higher [8]. - The cost side shows that the daily asphalt processing profit is - 696.98 yuan/ton, with a month - on - month decrease of 4.00%, and the weekly Shandong refinery delayed coking profit is 760.1786 yuan/ton, with a month - on - month decrease of 10.25%. The asphalt processing loss has decreased, and the profit difference between asphalt and delayed coking has decreased. With the weakening of crude oil, the short - term cost support is expected to weaken [9]. - It is expected that the asphalt futures price will fluctuate narrowly in the short term, with the asphalt 2510 fluctuating in the range of 3505 - 3551 [10]. - There are both positive and negative factors. The positive factor is that the relatively high - level crude oil cost provides some support; the negative factors are the insufficient demand for high - priced goods, the overall downward demand, and the increasing expectation of the economic recession in Europe and the United States [13][14]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Daily Views - **Supply**: The planned production in August 2025 is 2.413 million tons, with a month - on - month decrease of 5.1% and a year - on - year increase of 17.1%. The weekly capacity utilization rate is 34.7555%, with a month - on - month increase of 3.835 percentage points. The sample enterprise output is 580,000 tons, with a month - on - month increase of 12.40%, and the device maintenance volume is estimated to be 604,000 tons, with a month - on - month decrease of 5.91% [8]. - **Demand**: The heavy - traffic asphalt开工率 is 33.1%, with a month - on - month increase of 0.15 percentage points; the building asphalt开工率 is 18.2%, unchanged month - on - month; the modified asphalt开工率 is 16.1987%, with a month - on - month increase of 1.74 percentage points; the road - modified asphalt开工率 is 27%, unchanged month - on - month; the waterproofing membrane开工率 is 29%, with a month - on - month decrease of 1.00 percentage point. Overall, the current demand is below the historical average [8]. - **Cost**: The daily asphalt processing profit is - 696.98 yuan/ton, with a month - on - month decrease of 4.00%, and the weekly Shandong refinery delayed coking profit is 760.1786 yuan/ton, with a month - on - month decrease of 10.25% [9]. - **Expectation**: The asphalt futures price is expected to fluctuate narrowly in the short term, with the asphalt 2510 fluctuating in the range of 3505 - 3551 [10]. - **Other Factors**: The positive factor is the relatively high - level crude oil cost; the negative factors are the insufficient demand for high - priced goods, the overall downward demand, and the increasing expectation of the economic recession in Europe and the United States [13][14]. 3.2 Fundamentals/Position Data - **Fundamentals**: Bearish, as the supply pressure is high and the demand recovery is weak [8][15]. - **Basis**: On August 7, the Shandong spot price is 3760 yuan/ton, and the basis of the 10 - contract is 232 yuan/ton, with the spot at a premium to the futures. Bullish [11]. - **Inventory**: The social inventory is 1.343 million tons, with a month - on - month decrease of 0.66%; the in - factory inventory is 700,000 tons, with a month - on - month decrease of 3.18%; the port diluted asphalt inventory is 110,000 tons, with a month - on - month decrease of 31.25%. All inventories are decreasing. Bullish [11]. - **Disk**: The MA20 is downward, and the 10 - contract futures price closes below the MA20. Bearish [11]. - **Main Position**: The main position is net long, and the long position increases. Bullish [11]

Report Summary 1. Report Information - Research Variety: Glass [1] - Report Cycle: Daily - Date: August 1, 2025 - Researcher: He Ning (Qualification No.: F0238922; Investment Consulting Certificate No.: Z0001219) [1] 2. Investment Rating - Not provided in the report. 3. Core View - In the short - term, the glass futures may continue to show a weak trend. Supply - demand imbalance and cooling policy expectations will continue to drag down prices. With technical breakdown and short - selling capital pressure, the lower support levels will be tested. In the long - term, attention should be paid to the sentiment transmission effect in the commodity market, the rhythm of spot inventory reduction, and the actual implementation strength of capacity - reduction policies [10]. 4. Summary by Section 4.1 Futures Market - **Contract行情**: On August 1, 2025, the FG2509 glass contract continued to be weak. After opening, the price dropped continuously, breaking through the key support level of 1,100 yuan/ton during the session and closing with a negative line. It fell 44 yuan/ton from the previous settlement price, a decline of 3.84%, with a closing price of 1,102 yuan/ton. The trading volume was 2.616 million lots, and the open interest was 1.1692 million lots [2]. - **Variety Price**: All 12 glass futures contracts declined today, with the decline ranging from 1.92% to 4.59%. The market was dominated by bearish sentiment. The total open interest of the variety was 1.7858 million lots, an increase of 99,794 lots from the previous trading day. The open interest of the active contract FG2509 increased by 67,900 lots [4]. - **关联行情**: On the same day, the put options of glass options increased significantly in open interest, and the put options performed stronger than the call options [6]. 4.2 Spot Market - In the Shahe area, the spot trading of glass was light, the transaction center of gravity moved down, and the overall demand price remained stable [8]. 4.3 Influencing Factors - **Supply - demand Factors**: On the supply side, the current daily melting volume of float glass in production has risen to 159,600 tons, with an operating rate of 75% and a capacity utilization rate of 79.78%. The weekly average profit of float glass using coal - gas and petroleum coke as fuel exceeded 100 yuan, and the loss of natural - gas - fueled glass narrowed. On the demand side, the real - estate terminal orders were insufficient, the deep - processing orders only rebounded slightly, and the inventory remained at a high level, indicating limited actual digestion capacity [9]. - **Inventory Analysis**: The inventory of glass enterprises reached a new low recently, decreasing by 2.397 million weight - boxes to 59.499 million weight - boxes. However, this was mainly due to the transfer of inventory to traders, and the actual terminal digestion was limited [9].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content 2. Core Views of the Report - The fundamentals of asphalt are bullish. The supply pressure has been reduced recently due to refinery production cuts, but it may increase next week. The current demand is below the historical average. The cost is supported by the strengthening of crude oil in the short - term. It is expected that the asphalt 2509 contract will fluctuate narrowly in the range of 3596 - 3634 [7][8]. - The bullish factor is that the relatively high cost of crude oil provides some support, while the bearish factors are the insufficient demand for high - priced goods, the overall downward demand, and the increasing expectation of an economic recession in Europe and the United States [10][11]. - The main logic is that the supply pressure remains high, and the demand recovery is weak [12]. 3. Summary According to the Directory 3.1 Daily Views - **Supply Side**: In July 2025, the total planned asphalt production in China was 2.539 million tons, with a month - on - month increase of 5.9% and a year - on - year increase of 23.4%. This week, the capacity utilization rate of domestic petroleum asphalt samples was 30.9204%, a month - on - month decrease of 3.36 percentage points. The sample enterprises' output was 516,000 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 9.79%, and the estimated device maintenance volume was 642,000 tons, a month - on - month increase of 11.85%. Refineries have reduced production this week, reducing supply pressure, but supply pressure may increase next week [7]. - **Demand Side**: The construction rate of heavy - traffic asphalt was 28.8%, a month - on - month decrease of 0.12 percentage points; the construction rate of building asphalt was 18.2%, unchanged from the previous month; the construction rate of modified asphalt was 14.4572%, a month - on - month decrease of 0.09 percentage points; the construction rate of road - modified asphalt was 27%, a month - on - month increase of 2.00 percentage points; the construction rate of waterproofing membranes was 30%, a month - on - month increase of 2.00 percentage points. Overall, the current demand is below the historical average [7]. - **Cost**: The daily processing profit of asphalt was - 547.8 yuan/ton, a month - on - month increase of 7.50%. The weekly delayed coking profit of Shandong local refineries was 847.0529 yuan/ton, a month - on - month decrease of 3.28%. The processing loss of asphalt increased, and the profit difference between asphalt and delayed coking decreased. The strengthening of crude oil is expected to provide short - term support [8]. - **Basis**: On July 25, the spot price in Shandong was 3,780 yuan/ton, and the basis of the 09 contract was 165 yuan/ton, with the spot price higher than the futures price [8]. - **Inventory**: The social inventory was 1.352 million tons, a month - on - month increase of 2.50%; the in - factory inventory was 723,000 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 4.99%; the port diluted asphalt inventory was 160,000 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 23.80%. The social inventory continued to accumulate, while the in - factory and port inventories continued to decline [8]. - **Market**: The MA20 was upward, and the futures price of the 09 contract closed above the MA20 [8]. - **Main Position**: The main position was net long, with a decrease in long positions [8]. - **Expectation**: It is expected that the market will fluctuate narrowly in the short term, and the asphalt 2509 contract will fluctuate in the range of 3596 - 3634 [8]. 3.2 Asphalt Market Overview - The report provides the previous day's market overview data, including futures contract prices, inventory, production, and other indicators and their changes [14][15]. 3.3 Asphalt Futures Market Analysis - **Basis Trend**: The report shows the historical trends of the Shandong and East China basis of asphalt from 2020 to 2025 [18][20]. - **Spread Analysis**: - **Main Contract Spread**: It shows the historical trends of the 1 - 6 and 6 - 12 contract spreads of asphalt from 2020 to 2025 [22][23]. - **Asphalt - Crude Oil Price Trend**: It shows the historical price trends of asphalt, Brent crude oil, and West Texas crude oil from 2020 to 2025 [26]. - **Crude Oil Crack Spread**: It shows the historical trends of the crack spreads of asphalt and different types of crude oil (SC, WTI, Brent) from 2020 to 2025 [29][30]. - **Asphalt - Crude Oil - Fuel Oil Price Ratio Trend**: It shows the historical price ratio trends of asphalt, crude oil, and fuel oil from 2020 to 2025 [34]. 3.4 Asphalt Spot Market Analysis - It shows the historical price trend of Shandong heavy - traffic asphalt from 2020 to 2025 [36]. 3.5 Asphalt Fundamental Analysis - **Profit Analysis**: - **Asphalt Profit**: It shows the historical profit trend of asphalt from 2019 to 2025 [38]. - **Coking - Asphalt Profit Spread Trend**: It shows the historical trend of the profit spread between coking and asphalt from 2020 to 2025 [42]. - **Supply Side**: - **Shipment Volume**: It shows the historical weekly shipment volume of asphalt from 2020 to 2025 [44]. - **Diluted Asphalt Port Inventory**: It shows the historical domestic diluted asphalt port inventory from 2021 to 2025 [46]. - **Production**: It shows the historical weekly and monthly production of asphalt from 2019 to 2025 [49]. - **Marey Crude Oil Price and Venezuelan Crude Oil Monthly Production Trend**: It shows the historical price trend of Marey crude oil and the monthly production trend of Venezuelan crude oil from 2018 to 2025 [54]. - **Local Refinery Asphalt Production**: It shows the historical production of local refinery asphalt from 2019 to 2025 [56]. - **Operating Rate**: It shows the historical weekly operating rate of asphalt from 2021 to 2025 [59]. - **Estimated Maintenance Loss**: It shows the historical trend of estimated maintenance loss of asphalt from 2018 to 2025 [61]. - **Inventory**: - **Exchange Warehouse Receipt**: It shows the historical trends of the total, social, and factory warehouse receipts of asphalt on the exchange from 2019 to 2025 [64][66]. - **Social Inventory and In - Factory Inventory**: It shows the historical trends of the social inventory (70 samples) and in - factory inventory (54 samples) of asphalt from 2022 to 2025 [68]. - **In - Factory Inventory Inventory Ratio**: It shows the historical trend of the in - factory inventory inventory ratio of asphalt from 2018 to 2025 [71]. - **Import and Export Situation**: - It shows the historical trends of asphalt exports and imports from 2019 to 2025 [74]. - It shows the historical trend of the import price difference of South Korean asphalt from 2020 to 2025 [77]. - **Demand Side**: - **Petroleum Coke Production**: It shows the historical production of petroleum coke from 2019 to 2025 [80]. - **Apparent Consumption**: It shows the historical apparent consumption of asphalt from 2019 to 2025 [83]. - **Downstream Demand**: - It shows the historical trends of highway construction traffic fixed - asset investment, new local special bonds, and infrastructure investment completion year - on - year from 2019 to 2025 [86][87]. - It shows the historical trends of the sales volume of asphalt concrete pavers, the monthly operating hours of excavators, and the domestic excavator sales volume from 2019 to 2025 [90][92]. - **Asphalt Operating Rate**: - **Heavy - Traffic Asphalt Operating Rate**: It shows the historical operating rate of heavy - traffic asphalt from 2019 to 2025 [95]. - **Asphalt Operating Rate by Use**: It shows the historical operating rates of building asphalt and modified asphalt from 2019 to 2025 [97]. - **Downstream Operating Conditions**: It shows the historical operating rates of shoe - material SBS - modified asphalt, road - modified asphalt, and waterproofing membrane - modified asphalt from 2019 to 2025 [99][101]. - **Supply - Demand Balance Sheet**: It provides the monthly asphalt supply - demand balance sheet from January 2024 to July 2025, including production, import, export, social inventory, factory inventory, and downstream demand [104].