| 纯苯-苯乙烯日报 | | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 投资咨询业务资格:证监许可 [2011] 1292号 2026年1月9日 | | | | 张晓影 | Z0003135 | | 上游价格及价差 | | | | | | | 品期 | 1月8日 | 1月7日 | 涨跌 | 张跌幅 | 单位 | | 布伦特原油(3月) | 61.99 | 59.96 | 2.03 | 3.4% | | | | | | | | 美元/桶 | | WTI原油(2月) | 57.76 | 55.99 | 1.77 | 3.2% | | | CFR日本石脑油 | 541 | 533 | 8 | 1.5% | | | CFR东北亚乙烯 | 745 | 745 | 0 | 0.0% | | | CFR中国纪本 | 674 | 672 | 2 | 0.3% | 美元/吨 | | 纯苯-石脑油 | 133 | 139 | -6 | -4.3% | | | 乙烯-石胸沿 | 204 | 212 | -8 | -3.8% | | | 纯苯(中石化华东挂牌价) | 5300 | ...

2026年01月09日 国泰君安期货商品研究晨报-能源化工 观点与策略 | 对二甲苯：单边高位震荡市，关注月差正套 | 2 | | --- | --- | | PTA：高位震荡市 | 2 | | MEG：上方空间有限，中期仍有压力 | 2 | | 橡胶：宽幅震荡20260109 | 4 | | 合成橡胶:震荡中枢上移 | 6 | | LLDPE：标品排产维持偏低，进口利润修复明显 | 8 | | PP：丙烯强于乙烯，一季度PDH检修预期较强 | 9 | | 烧碱：偏弱震荡 | 10 | | 纸浆：震荡运行20260109 | 11 | | 玻璃：原片价格平稳 | 13 | | 甲醇：震荡运行 | 14 | | 尿素：短期震荡运行 | 16 | | 苯乙烯：短期震荡 | 18 | | 纯碱：现货市场变化不大 | 20 | | LPG：关注地缘扰动 | 21 | | 丙烯：需求平稳，现货小幅探涨 | 21 | | PVC：偏弱震荡 | 24 | | 燃料油：偏强震荡，下方仍有支撑 | 25 | | 低硫燃料油：夜盘上行，外盘现货高低硫价差小幅反弹 | 25 | | 集运指数（欧线）：轻仓试多02做交割；04空单持 ...

聚烯烃日报 | 2026-01-06 供需改善有限，制约反弹空间 市场要闻与重要数据 价格与基差方面，L主力合约收盘价为6449元/吨（-23），PP主力合约收盘价为6330元/吨（-18），LL华北现货为6400 元/吨（+100），LL华东现货为6480元/吨（+30），PP华东现货为6190元/吨（+30），LL华北基差为-49元/吨（+123）， LL华东基差为31元/吨（+103）， PP华东基差为-140元/吨（+48）。 上游供应方面，PE开工率为83.2%（+0.6%），PP开工率为76.7%（-0.1%）。 策略 单边：LLDPE观望；PP观望；短期供需矛盾尚未改善但地缘局势升温或对成本端造成扰动，短期或延续震荡走势， 继续关注上游装置检修兑现情况。 跨期：无 跨品种：L05-PP05价差逢高做缩 生产利润方面，PE油制生产利润为64.5元/吨（+78.3），PP油制生产利润为-415.5元/吨（+78.3），PDH制PP生产利 润为-828.8元/吨（-35.7）。 进出口方面，LL进口利润为99.3元/吨（-2.5），PP进口利润为-351.2元/吨（+7.4），PP出口利润为-22.4 ...

本订阅号中所涉及的证券研究信息由光大证券研究所编写，仅面向光大证券专业投资者客户，用作新媒体形势下研究 信息和研究观点的沟通交流。非光大证券专业投资者客户，请勿订阅、接收或使用本订阅号中的任何信息。本订阅号 难以设置访问权限，若给您造成不便，敬请谅解。光大证券研究所不会因关注、收到或阅读本订阅号推送内容而视相 关人员为光大证券的客户。 报告摘要 流动性：金价创历史新高水平 点击注册小程序 查看完整报告 特别申明： 地产竣工链条：钛白粉毛利润处于低位水平 本周钛白粉、玻璃的价格环比分别+0.77%、+0.00%，钛白粉毛利润为-1744元/吨，平板玻璃本周开工率 73.89%。 工业品链条：半钢胎开工率处于五年同期中位 （1）本周主要大宗商品价格表现：冷轧、铜、铝价格环比-0.51%、+5.84%、+1.01%，对应的毛利环比变 化扭亏为盈、亏损环比+4.00%、+6.72%；（2）本周全国半钢胎开工率为72.05%，环比+0.66个百分点。 （1）BCI中小企业融资环境指数2025年12月值为47.15，环比上月-10.19%；（2）M1和M2增速差与上证 指数存在较强的正向相关性：M1和M2增速差在2025 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings No information provided regarding industry investment ratings in the given reports. 2. Core Views of Each Report Natural Rubber Industry - Short - term rubber price may rise due to commodity preference sentiment, but the overall fundamentals are weak. Consider short - selling around 15700 [1]. Glass and Soda Ash Industry - Soda ash: The supply - demand pattern is bearish, prices are in a downward trend with occasional technical rebounds. Look for short - selling opportunities after rebounds [3]. - Glass: The spot market is under pressure, and the 05 contract is expected to fluctuate weakly at the bottom before positive drivers emerge [3]. Crude Oil Industry - International crude oil prices are affected by geopolitical events. The supply is in excess, and prices are expected to fluctuate between 60 - 65 dollars per barrel. Monitor EIA data and geopolitical developments [4]. Pure Benzene - Styrene Industry - Pure benzene: The short - term supply - demand is weak, and the price is expected to oscillate between 5300 - 5600. - Styrene: The short - term rebound space is limited. Consider short - selling EB02/03 above 6800 and narrowing the EB spread [6]. Polyolefin Industry - PP: Supply increases while demand decreases, and the 05 contract may face pressure if there are few planned maintenance in 1 - 3 months. - PE: Supply and demand are both weak, but the marginal situation is improving, and short - term pressure is relieved [7]. PVC and Caustic Soda Industry - Caustic soda: The supply - demand is weak, inventory is high, and the rebound height is limited. - PVC: The spot fundamentals are weak, and it is difficult to support price increases [8]. Urea Industry - The short - term supply is high, and demand is weak. Prices are expected to oscillate widely, with the futures main contract focusing on the 1700 - 1760 range [9]. LPG Industry No clear overall view provided in the given LPG - related content. Ester Industry - PX: The short - term supply - demand may weaken, with prices adjusting before the Spring Festival. Consider exiting long positions, short - selling for the aggressive, and low - buying in the medium - term. - PTA: Follow raw material fluctuations. Exit long positions, short - sell for the aggressive, and low - buy in the medium - term. - MEG: Overseas supply may shrink, but near - month inventory accumulation is expected, and price increases face resistance. - Short - fiber: Follow raw material fluctuations, and narrow the processing spread when it is high. - Bottle chips: Domestic supply is expected to increase, and compress the processing spread when it is high [13]. Methanol Industry - The port may face inventory accumulation in December, and the supply - demand balance may turn to inventory reduction in the first quarter of the next year. The inland price oscillates narrowly. Monitor inventory reduction after the actual arrival at the port decreases [16]. 3. Summaries Based on Relevant Catalogs Natural Rubber Industry Spot Prices and Basis - Yunnan state - owned full - latex rubber (SCRWF) in Shanghai rose from 15200 to 15300, with a 0.66% increase. - The full - latex basis increased by 9.43% to - 480 yuan/ton [1]. Monthly Spreads - The 9 - 1 spread increased by 50% to 15 yuan/ton [1]. Production and Consumption - Thailand's November production decreased by 9.39% to 466.20 thousand tons. - China's November production increased by 23.70 thousand tons [1]. Inventory Changes - Bonded area inventory increased by 3.28% to 515227 tons [1]. Glass and Soda Ash Industry Glass - Related Prices and Spreads - North China glass price remained at 1010 yuan/ton. - The 01 basis of glass decreased by 5.13% to 74 yuan/ton [3]. Soda Ash - Related Prices and Spreads - Northwest soda ash price decreased by 4.21% to 910 yuan/ton. - The 01 basis of soda ash decreased by 3.24% to 179 yuan/ton [3]. Supply - Soda ash weekly output decreased by 1.33% to 71.18 million tons [3]. Inventory - Soda ash factory inventory decreased by 4.06% to 143.85 million tons [3]. Crude Oil Industry Crude Oil Prices and Spreads - Brent crude oil decreased by 2.57% to 60.64 dollars per barrel [4]. Refined Oil Prices and Spreads - NYM RBOB decreased by 2.86% to 169.71 cents per gallon [4]. Pure Benzene - Styrene Industry Upstream Prices and Spreads - Brent crude oil (February) decreased by 2.6% to 60.64 dollars per barrel. - The pure benzene - naphtha spread increased by 3.9% to 133 dollars/ton [6]. Styrene - Related Prices and Spreads - Styrene East China spot price increased by 2.4% to 6700 dollars/ton [6]. Inventory and Operating Rates - Styrene Jiangsu port inventory increased by 3.4% to 13.93 million tons [6]. Polyolefin Industry Futures Prices and Spreads - L2601 closed at 6388 yuan/ton, up 0.73%. - The L15 spread decreased by 61.70% to - 76 yuan/ton [7]. Inventory - PE enterprise inventory decreased by 5.99% to 45.9 million tons [7]. Operating Rates - PE device operating rate decreased by 1.46% to 82.6% [7]. PVC and Caustic Soda Industry Spot and Futures Prices - Shandong 32% liquid caustic soda converted to 100% decreased by 0.7% to 2218.8 yuan/ton. - V2605 increased by 1.6% to 4832 yuan/ton [8]. Supply and Demand - Caustic soda industry operating rate increased by 0.2% to 88.7%. - PVC total operating rate decreased by 0.9% to 75.4% [8]. Inventory - Liquid caustic soda East China factory inventory decreased by 2.6% to 22.1 million tons [8]. Urea Industry Futures and Spot Prices - The 01 contract of urea decreased by 0.48% to 1667 yuan/ton [9]. Supply and Demand - Domestic urea daily output remained at 19.19 million tons. - Factory inventory decreased by 9.39% to 106.89 million tons [9]. LPG Industry LPG Prices and Spreads - The main PG2601 contract increased by 0.07% to 4238 yuan/ton. - The PG01 - 02 spread decreased by 0.63% to 158 yuan/ton [11]. Inventory and Operating Rates - LPG refinery storage capacity ratio increased by 1.69% to 24.1%. - Downstream PDH operating rate increased by 1.81% to 76.4% [11]. Ester Industry Upstream Prices - Brent crude oil (February) decreased by 2.6% to 60.64 dollars per barrel. - CFR China PX increased by 2.0% to 918 dollars/ton [13]. Polyester Product Prices and Cash Flows - POY150/48 price increased by 2.0% to 6570 yuan/ton [13]. Operating Rates - Asian PX operating rate increased by 0.6% to 79.5% [13]. Methanol Industry Methanol Prices and Spreads - MA2601 closed at 2130 yuan/ton, up 0.05%. - The MTO05盘面 increased by 13.18% to - 191 [14]. Inventory - Methanol enterprise inventory increased by 3.28% to 40.397 million tons [15]. Operating Rates - Upstream domestic enterprise operating rate increased by 0.46% to 77.99% [16].

纯苯苯乙烯日报 | 2025-12-24 苯乙烯去库周期结束，基差再度走弱 纯苯与苯乙烯观点 纯苯方面：纯苯主力基差-100元/吨（+34）。纯苯港口库存27.30万吨（+1.30万吨）；纯苯CFR中国加工费126美元/ 吨（-6美元/吨），纯苯FOB韩国加工费119美元/吨（-6美元/吨），纯苯美韩价差181.9美元/吨（-3.0美元/吨）。华东纯 苯现货-M2价差-135元/吨（-10元/吨）。 纯苯下游方面：己内酰胺生产利润-350元/吨（+0），酚酮生产利润-902元/吨（+25），苯胺生产利润789元/吨（+178）， 己二酸生产利润-1018元/吨（+0）。己内酰胺开工率69.20%（-5.37%），苯酚开工率76.00%（-3.50%），苯胺开工率 61.35%（-14.59%），己二酸开工率59.60%（+0.40%）。 苯乙烯方面：苯乙烯主力基差71元/吨（+61元/吨）；苯乙烯非一体化生产利润-190元/吨（+30元/吨），预期逐步压 缩。苯乙烯华东港口库存139300吨（+4600吨），苯乙烯华东商业库存84550吨（+2250吨），处于库存回建阶段。苯 乙烯开工率69.1%（+0.8% ...

整体而言，五矿期货表示，国内供强需弱的现实下，国内需求偏差，难以扭转供给过剩的格局，基本面 较差，短期情绪偏强带动反弹，中期在行业实质性大幅减产前仍然以逢高空配的思路为主。 12月22日，国内期市能化板块有涨有跌。其中，PVC期货主力合约震荡走低1.71%，报收于4591.00元/ 吨。 需求端，西南期货分析称，本周国内下游制品企业开工下降，主要受硬制品开工下降影响；成本利润 端，烧碱价格下行，液氯周均上行，氯碱利润整体下降。 现货方面，12月22日，临沂地区PVC行情延续弱势，经销商报盘普遍低报出货为主，市场气氛一般，实 际成交低迷。目前电石法5型主流报价在4320-4360元/吨区间。 供应端，华联期货指出，上周开工率环比延续走低，主要是部分装置降负荷影响，但总体供应仍在高 位。明年几乎没有新增产能，供应扩张进入尾声。 ...

【冠通期货研究报告】 沥青日报：震荡下行 发布日期：2025年12月19日 【行情分析】 今日沥青期货2602合约下跌1.95%至2909元/吨，5日均线下方，最低价在2895元/吨，最高价 2945元/吨，持仓量减少6744至217948手。 基差方面： 山东地区主流市场价维持在2910元/吨，沥青02合约基差上涨至1元/吨，处于中性水平。 投资有风险，入市需谨慎。 本公司具备期货交易咨询业务资格，请务必阅读最后一页免责声明。 1 供应端，本周沥青开工率环比回落0.2个百分点至27.6%，较去年同期低了0.9个百分点，仍处于 近年同期最低水平。。据隆众资讯数据，12月份国内沥青预计排产215.8万吨，环比减少7.0万吨，减 幅为3.1%，同比减少34.4万吨，减幅为13.8%。本周，沥青下游各行业开工率多数下跌，其中道路沥 青开工环比下跌3个百分点至24%，受到资金和天气制约。本周，华东地区主营炼厂间歇停产，加之 价格高位，其出货量减少较多，全国出货量环比减少3.52%至24.45万吨，处于中性水平。沥青炼厂库 存存货比环比小幅下降，仍处于近年来同期的最低位附近。伊拉克部分前期故障油田恢复生产，美 国仍在极 ...

| 聚烯烃产业期现日报 | | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 投资咨询业务资格:证监许可 【2011】1292号 2025年12月18日 | | | | 张晓珍 | Z0003135 | | 品种 | 12月17日 | 12月16日 | 活的关 | 涨跌幅 | 单位 | | L2601收盘价 | 6439 | 6516 | -77 | -1.18% | 元/吨 | | L2605 收盘价 | 6479 | 6543 | -64 | -0.98% | | | PP2601 收盘价 | 6196 | 6192 | 4 | 0.06% | | | PP2605 收盘价 | 6254 | 6256 | -2 | -0.03% | | | L15价差 | -40 | -27 | -13 | -48.15% | | | PP15价差 | -58 | -64 | 6 | 9.38% | | | LP01价差 | 243 | 324 | -81 | -25.00% | | | 华东PP拉丝现货价格 | 6120 | 6110 | 10 | 0.16% | | ...

Group 1: Core View - The LPG futures price declined due to falling oil prices, PDH shutdown news, and an increase in warehouse receipts. The domestic civil gas price also dropped. The external paper market first rose and then fell, with the FEI and CP spreads strengthening and the MB spread weakening. The oil - gas ratio declined, and the domestic - foreign spread weakened. The US - Asia arbitrage window opened. Overall, Middle Eastern supplies are tight, and winter prices are unlikely to fall significantly. The domestic market is expected to fluctuate weakly in the short term. Attention should be paid to the subsequent PDH start - up under high costs and the situation of factory warehouse receipts [4] Group 2: Data Summary Daily Price Changes - Civil gas prices: In East China, it was 4398 (-10); in Shandong, it was 4410 (-30); in South China, it was 4490 (+30). The price of ether - post - carbon four was 4600 (+30). The lowest delivery location was East China [4] - Basis daily change: 84 (-6); 01 - 02 spread: 124 (+0); 03 - 04 spread: -208 (-2). As of 22:00, FEI was 509 (+1) and CP was 501 (-2) dollars/ton [4] Futures - related Data - LPG futures basis was 265 (+122), 01 - 02 spread was 84 (+5), 03 - 04 spread was -223 (-12), and warehouse receipts were 5476 lots (+865) [4] Market Spread Data - PG - CP dropped to 71 (-28), PG - FEI dropped to 65 (-14). The East China propane arrival premium was 85 (-7), and the AFEI, Middle East, and US propane FOB premiums were 42 (+12), 42 (+17), and 47 (+4) respectively [4] Supply - related Data - The arrival volume increased by 12.25%, port inventory increased by 3.22%, external supply increased slightly by 1.3%, and refinery storage capacity increased slightly by 0.27%. The PDH operating rate was 72.87% (+2.65pct) [4]