纯苯苯乙烯日报 | 2025-08-26 纯苯去库而苯乙烯再度累库 纯苯与苯乙烯观点 市场要闻与重要数据 纯苯方面：纯苯主力基差-121元/吨（-3）。纯苯港口库存13.80万吨（-0.60万吨）；纯苯CFR中国加工费164美元/吨 （-3美元/吨），纯苯FOB韩国加工费147美元/吨（-5美元/吨），纯苯美韩价差58.7美元/吨（-4.0美元/吨）。华东纯苯 现货-M2价差-20元/吨（-10元/吨）。 纯苯下游方面：己内酰胺生产利润-1835元/吨（+5），酚酮生产利润-727元/吨（+0），苯胺生产利润-204元/吨（-43）， 己二酸生产利润-1277元/吨（+55）。己内酰胺开工率91.86%（-1.86%），苯酚开工率78.00%（+1.00%），苯胺开工 率70.10%（-1.47%），己二酸开工率65.50%（+3.80%）。 苯乙烯方面：苯乙烯主力基差25元/吨（+28元/吨）；苯乙烯非一体化生产利润-251元/吨（-13元/吨），预期逐步压缩。 苯乙烯华东港口库存179000吨（+17500吨），苯乙烯华东商业库存84000吨（+7500吨），处于库存回建阶段。苯乙 烯开工率78.5%（+ ...

晨报 成材 成材：供需双弱 钢价整理 从业资格号：F3038114 投资咨询号：Z0014834 电话：010-62688541 原材料： 冯艳成 从业资格号：F3059529 投资咨询号：Z0018932 电话：010-62688516 逻辑：上周，247 家钢厂高炉炼铁产能利用率 90.25%，环比增加 0.03 个百分点；钢厂盈利率 64.94%，环比减少 0.86 个百分点；日均铁水产量 240.75 万吨，环比增加 0.09 万吨。上周，全国 90 家独立电弧炉钢厂平 均产能利用率 56.67%，环比下降 0.72 个百分点，同比上升 22.48 个百分 点。平均开工率 75.69%，环比下降 0.69 个百分点，同比上升 24.72 个百 分点。上周，唐山 87 条型钢生产线：实际开工产线为 15 条，整体开工率 25.42%，较上周下降 27.12%；产能利用率为 49.23%，较上周相比上升 0.89%。根据调研结果反馈，未来短期 45%的河北唐山钢厂计划检修，但 需等通知，32%的钢厂确定检修，23%的钢厂不进行检修。河北唐山目前已 知日均铁水影响量总计约 4.18 万吨，总铁水量 37-4 ...

纯苯苯乙烯日报 | 2025-08-22 EB下游开工再度回升 纯苯与苯乙烯观点 市场要闻与重要数据 纯苯方面：纯苯主力基差-110元/吨（+0）。纯苯港口库存14.40万吨（-0.20万吨）；纯苯CFR中国加工费173美元/吨 （+0美元/吨），纯苯FOB韩国加工费157美元/吨（-1美元/吨），纯苯美韩价差51.6美元/吨（-3.0美元/吨）。华东纯苯 现货-M2价差0元/吨（-10元/吨）。 纯苯下游方面：己内酰胺生产利润-1845元/吨（-25），酚酮生产利润-701元/吨（+50），苯胺生产利润-204元/吨（-43）， 己二酸生产利润-1331元/吨（+5）。己内酰胺开工率91.86%（-1.86%），苯酚开工率78.00%（+1.00%），苯胺开工率 70.10%（-1.47%），己二酸开工率65.50%（+3.80%）。 苯乙烯方面：苯乙烯主力基差26元/吨（+31元/吨）；苯乙烯非一体化生产利润-298元/吨（+45元/吨），预期逐步压 缩。苯乙烯华东港口库存161500吨（+12700吨），苯乙烯华东商业库存76500吨（+7000吨），处于库存回建阶段。 苯乙烯开工率78.5%（+0.4 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings No investment ratings are provided in the reports. 2. Core Views of the Reports Chlor - alkali Industry - **Caustic Soda**: The caustic soda futures market strengthened, but the supply is expected to increase with more devices resuming and fewer maintenance plans. The rebound height is limited, and the 01 contract is expected to fluctuate between 2500 - 2700. It is recommended to wait and see [2]. - **PVC**: The supply of PVC is under pressure due to new capacity releases, while the downstream demand shows no sign of improvement. The industry is in the off - season, and it is recommended to take a bearish view [2]. Crude Oil Industry - The overnight oil price rebounded, driven by short - term supply - demand factors such as a large drop in US EIA inventory and strong terminal demand. However, there is still short - term supply pressure due to the increase in Cushing inventory and OPEC + production. It is recommended to wait and see on the long - short side, and consider expanding the 10 - 11/12 month spread on the inter - month side [5]. Methanol Industry - The methanol market has high port inventory due to large imports. The demand is differentiated, with traditional sectors weak and MTO profit improving. The 09 contract has significant inventory accumulation, while the 01 contract is supported by seasonal factors and Iranian gas - limit expectations [9][11][12]. Pure Benzene - Styrene Industry - **Pure Benzene**: The short - term price has some support due to expected improvement in supply - demand and lower port arrivals in August, but the medium - term supply is sufficient, and the rebound drive is limited. - **Styrene**: The short - term supply is high, but the demand has improved with the increase in downstream 3S load and export expectations. The price has support at the low level, but the rebound space is limited [16]. Urea Industry - The urea price fluctuated, mainly driven by export sentiment and inventory pressure. The fundamentals have limited changes, with increased daily production and weak agricultural demand. The market is expected to be volatile [19]. Polyester Industry Chain - **PX**: The supply is expected to increase as some domestic PX plants restart. The short - term price has support, and it is recommended to trade it in the range of 6600 - 6900 and expand the PX - SC spread [50]. - **PTA**: The short - term supply - demand has improved, but the medium - term is under pressure. It is recommended to trade it in the range of 4600 - 4800 and do reverse arbitrage on TA1 - 5 [50]. - **Ethylene Glycol**: The supply and demand are neutral to positive in the short - term, and it is expected to be volatile and strong. It is recommended to trade the EG01 contract in the range of 4350 - 4550 [50]. - **Short - fiber**: The price has some support due to the approaching peak season, but the rebound drive is limited. It is recommended to pay attention to the pressure above 6500 for the PF10 contract [50]. - **Bottle Chip**: The processing fee has support, and the absolute price follows the cost. It is recommended to go long on the processing fee at low levels [50]. Polyolefin Industry - The PP/PE market shows a pattern of both supply and demand increasing, with inventory depletion. The supply pressure is easing, and demand is showing signs of recovery. It is recommended to hold the LP 01 contract as the market fluctuates in the short - term [54]. 3. Summary According to Related Catalogs Chlor - alkali Industry - **Price and Spread**: The prices of caustic soda and PVC showed different trends. The export profit of caustic soda decreased, while the PVC export profit increased [2]. - **Supply**: The caustic soda industry's operating rate decreased slightly, while the PVC total operating rate increased [2]. - **Demand**: The downstream operating rates of caustic soda and PVC showed some improvement [2]. - **Inventory**: The inventory of caustic soda and PVC showed different trends, with an increase in some and a decrease in others [2]. Crude Oil Industry - **Price and Spread**: Brent, WTI, and SC prices changed, and the spreads between different contracts and varieties also changed [5]. - **Supply - Demand**: The US EIA inventory decreased significantly, but Cushing inventory increased, and OPEC + production increased [5]. Methanol Industry - **Price and Spread**: The methanol futures and spot prices increased, and the spreads between different contracts and regions also changed [9]. - **Inventory**: The methanol enterprise, port, and social inventories all increased [10]. - **Operating Rate**: The upstream domestic operating rate decreased slightly, while the overseas operating rate increased slightly. The downstream MTO operating rate increased [11]. Pure Benzene - Styrene Industry - **Price and Spread**: The prices of pure benzene, styrene, and their raw materials changed, and the spreads between different varieties also changed [16]. - **Inventory**: The pure benzene inventory in Jiangsu ports decreased slightly, while the styrene inventory increased [16]. - **Operating Rate**: The operating rates of pure benzene, styrene, and their downstream products showed different trends [16]. Urea Industry - **Price and Spread**: The urea futures and spot prices changed, and the spreads between different contracts and varieties also changed [19]. - **Supply - Demand**: The domestic urea daily production decreased slightly, and the inventory in some areas changed [19]. - **Position and Volume**: The long and short positions of the top 20 increased, and the trading volume increased significantly [19]. Polyester Industry Chain - **Price and Spread**: The prices of raw materials such as crude oil, PX, and downstream polyester products changed, and the spreads between different varieties also changed [50]. - **Operating Rate**: The operating rates of PX, PTA, and downstream polyester products showed different trends [50]. - **Inventory**: The MEG port inventory decreased, and the PTA inventory situation was also mentioned [50]. Polyolefin Industry - **Price and Spread**: The prices of LLDPE and PP futures and spot changed, and the spreads between different contracts and regions also changed [54]. - **Operating Rate**: The operating rates of PE and PP plants and their downstream industries showed different trends [54]. - **Inventory**: The PE and PP enterprise and social inventories showed different trends [54].

Group 1: Report Summary - The short - term supply of pure benzene in China is expected to exceed demand, putting pressure on prices; in the medium - to - long - term, the supply - demand contradiction may improve as new downstream capacity in August is higher than that of pure benzene [2] - The supply of crude oil exceeds demand, and international oil prices are expected to fluctuate weakly due to positive signals from Russia - Ukraine peace talks [2] - Technically, for BZ2603, attention should be paid to the support around 6100 and the pressure around 6300 [2] Group 2: Market Data Futures Market - The closing price of the main pure benzene contract is 6205 yuan/ton, up 23 yuan; the settlement price is 6177 yuan/ton, down 13 yuan [2] - The trading volume of the main pure benzene contract is 11282 lots, up 7924 lots; the open interest is 13106 lots, down 877 lots [2] Spot Market - The mainstream price of pure benzene in the East China market is 6250 yuan/ton, unchanged; in the South China market, it is 6095 yuan/ton, down 5 yuan [2] - The FOB mid - price of pure benzene in South Korea is 732 US dollars/ton, unchanged; the CFR mid - price of pure benzene in China is 746.5 US dollars/ton, unchanged [2] Upstream Situation - The spot price of Brent DTD crude oil is 67.6 US dollars/barrel, unchanged; the CFR mid - price of naphtha in Japan is 574.5 US dollars/ton, up 3.75 US dollars [2] Industry Situation - The capacity utilization rate of pure benzene is 78.14%, up 0.13%; the weekly output is 44.52 tons, down 0.08 tons [2] - The port inventory of pure benzene is 14.6 tons, down 1.7 tons; the production cost is 5327.8 yuan/ton, down 118.2 yuan [2] - The production profit of pure benzene is 737 yuan/ton, up 76 yuan [2] Downstream Situation - The开工率 of styrene is 78.18%, up 0.45%; the capacity utilization rate of caprolactam is 95.72%, up 6.41% [2] - The capacity utilization rate of phenol is 78.54%, down 0.46%; the capacity utilization rate of aniline is 69.24%, down 0.1% [2] - The capacity utilization rate of adipic acid is 64.3%, up 2% [2] Group 3: Industry News - China will comprehensively rectify the petrochemical and refining industries, phasing out small facilities and upgrading backward capacity while directing investment towards advanced materials [2] - From August 8 - 14, the profit of petroleum benzene in China was 689 yuan/ton, up 113 yuan/ton; the BZ2603 fluctuated widely and closed at 6205 yuan/ton [2] - As of August 18, the commercial inventory of pure benzene in Jiangsu ports was 14.4 tons, down 1.37% [2]

Report Investment Ratings No investment ratings for the industries are provided in the reports. Core Views - **Urea**: The current core driver of the futures market is the strong expectation of the substantial relaxation of export policies, which has been realized. China may resume urea exports to India, opening up an incremental market window. The policy window requires concentrated exports by the end of September, which coincides with the domestic autumn storage period, creating a demand resonance. The overall market is expected to oscillate strongly in the short term [1]. - **Polyester Industry Chain**: For PX, domestic supply is expected to increase as some maintenance devices gradually restart, and the absolute price rebound space is limited. PTA's short - term basis is supported, but the upward space is limited. For ethylene glycol, the supply and demand are expected to be balanced with minor fluctuations in August. Short - fiber supply and demand both increase slightly, and prices are expected to oscillate within a certain range. Bottle - chip prices follow the cost end, and the processing fee space depends on demand [4]. - **Methanol**: The port inventory is at a relatively high level year - on - year due to high imports in August. The demand is differentiated, with the traditional sector remaining weak and MTO profits recovering. The 09 contract is facing significant inventory accumulation, while the 01 contract is supported by seasonal peak season and gas - limit expectations [11]. - **Chlor - alkali Industry**: For caustic soda, the market sentiment is weakening, and the supply is expected to increase. For PVC, the supply - demand pressure remains high due to new capacity release and weak demand [20]. - **Polyolefin**: In the static view, the supply and demand of PP/PE both increase, inventory is being destocked, and the basis is weak. Strategically, the market is expected to oscillate in the short term [23]. - **Pure Benzene - Styrene**: For pure benzene, the supply is expected to improve in the third quarter, and short - term prices are supported, but it is under pressure in the medium - term. For styrene, the supply is high, but there are maintenance expectations as profits are compressed, and the downstream load is rising [32]. - **Crude Oil**: Overnight oil prices were weak, mainly driven by geopolitical expectations. In the short term, oil prices are expected to continue to oscillate weakly, and it is recommended to expand the spread between October - November/December contracts [35]. Summaries by Catalog Urea - **Futures Prices**: On August 19, the 01 contract closed at 1817 yuan/ton, up 3.59% from the previous day; the 05 contract closed at 1839 yuan/ton; the 09 contract closed at 1783 yuan/ton. The main methanol contract closed at 2391 yuan/ton, down 0.21% [1]. - **Futures Spreads**: The spread between the 01 and 05 contracts was - 36 yuan/ton, up 38.89%; the spread between the 05 and 09 contracts was 56 yuan/ton, down 5.08% [1]. - **Positions**: The long positions of the top 20 increased by 12.03%, and the short positions of the top 20 increased by 16.18% [1]. - **Upstream Raw Materials**: The prices of anthracite small pieces and动力煤坑口 remained unchanged, while the price of动力煤港口 decreased by 0.47% [1]. - **Spot Prices**: The spot prices of small - particle urea in various regions remained unchanged [1]. - **Downstream Products**: The price of melamine in Shandong increased by 0.60%, while the prices of compound fertilizers remained stable [1]. - **Supply - Demand**: The daily domestic urea production was 19.12 million tons, down 0.78%; the weekly production was 132.85 million tons, up 1.51% [1]. Polyester Industry Chain - **Upstream Prices**: Brent crude oil (October) was at $65.79/barrel, down 1.2%; WTI crude oil (September) was at $62.35/barrel, down 1.7% [4]. - **PX - Related**: CFR China PX was at $835/ton, up 0.2%. The PX basis (11) decreased by 44.1% [4]. - **PTA - Related**: The PTA East China spot price was 4690 yuan/ton, up 0.4%. The PTA basis (01) increased by 42.1% [4]. - **MEG - Related**: The MEG East China spot price was 4458 yuan/ton, up 0.4%. The MEG basis (09) decreased by 30.6% [4]. - **Downstream Products**: The prices of POY150/48, FDY150/96, and other polyester products showed different changes, and the cash - flows and processing fees also varied [4]. - **Inventory and开工率**: MEG port inventory was 54.1 million tons, and the polyester industry chain's various开工 rates showed different trends [4]. Methanol - **Prices and Spreads**: On August 19, the MA2601 contract closed at 2391 yuan/ton, down 0.21%. The太仓基差 was - 5 yuan/ton, down 171.43% [8]. - **Inventory**: The methanol enterprise inventory was 29.5573 million tons, up 0.64%; the port inventory was 102.2 million tons, up 10.41% [10]. - **开工率**: The upstream domestic enterprise开工率 was 72.63%, down 0.74%; the downstream外采MTO装置开工率 was 76.92%, up 0.68% [11]. Chlor - alkali Industry - **Prices**: The price of Shandong 32% caustic soda remained unchanged, while the price of Shandong 50% caustic soda increased by 0.8%. The price of East China PVC decreased [14]. - **开工率**: The caustic soda industry开工率 was 87.3%, down 2.0%; the PVC总开工率 was 78.8%, up 1.4% [17]. - **Profits**: The外采电石法PVC利润 was - 562 yuan/ton, down 3.7%; the西北一体化利润 was 278.8 yuan/ton, down 5.1% [17]. - **Demand**: The开工 rates of caustic soda's downstream industries such as alumina and viscose staple fiber increased slightly, while PVC's downstream product开工 rates showed different trends [18][19]. - **Inventory**: The caustic soda inventory in East China factories and Shandong increased, while the PVC upstream factory inventory decreased slightly [20]. Polyolefin - **Prices**: The L2601 contract closed at 7307 yuan/ton, down 0.37%; the PP2601 contract closed at 7016 yuan/ton, down 0.45% [23]. - **Inventory**: PE enterprise inventory was 44.5 million tons, down 13.76%; PP贸易商库存 was 18.0 million tons, down 4.06% [23]. - **开工率**: The PE装置开工率 was 77.8%, down 2.10%; the PP装置开工率 was 76.6%, down 1.1% [23]. Pure Benzene - Styrene - **Upstream Prices**: Brent crude oil (October) was at $65.79/barrel, down 1.2%; CFR China pure benzene was at $747/ton, unchanged [29]. - **Benzene - Styrene Prices**: The East China spot price of styrene was 7280 yuan/ton, down 0.1% [29]. - **Inventory**: The pure benzene inventory in Jiangsu ports was 14.40 million tons, down 1.4%; the styrene inventory in Jiangsu ports was 16.15 million tons, up 8.5% [31]. - **开工率**: The Asian pure benzene开工率 was 75.7%, down 0.4%; the styrene开工率 was 78.2%, up 0.6% [32]. Crude Oil - **Prices**: Brent crude oil was at $65.79/barrel, down 1.2%; WTI crude oil was at $62.60/barrel, up 0.4% [35]. - **Spreads**: Brent M1 - M3 was at $0.88, down 14%; WTI M1 - M3 was at $0.92, up 4.5% [35]. - **Refined Oil**: The prices of NYM RBOB, NYM ULSD, and ICE Gasoil showed different changes, and the cracking spreads also varied [35].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2. Core View of the Report - Pure benzene port inventory continues to decline slightly, and its basis has stabilized and strengthened recently. From August to September, there are maintenance plans for aromatics in South Korea, and the import pressure has not increased further. The overall downstream operating rate remains high, and the demand is at a seasonal high, which drives the de - stocking of pure benzene, but the de - stocking range is expected to be limited. - For styrene, the port inventory did not continue to decline at the beginning of the week, and the port pickup volume did not continue to increase. Among the downstream products, the operating rates of EPS and PS have rebounded, and their inventory pressures have been relieved, while ABS still maintains a state of high inventory and low operating rate [3]. 3. Summary According to the Directory I. Pure Benzene and EB's Basis Structure, Inter - Period Spread - Pure benzene's main basis is - 87 yuan/ton (+4), and the spot - M2 spread is 5 yuan/ton (+0). Styrene's main basis is 54 yuan/ton (+14) [1]. II. Pure Benzene and Styrene Production Profits, Domestic and Foreign Spreads - Pure benzene's CFR China processing fee is 176 dollars/ton (+0), and FOB South Korea processing fee is 161 dollars/ton (+0). The profit of styrene's non - integrated production is - 327 yuan/ton (+10), and it is expected to gradually compress [1]. III. Pure Benzene and Styrene Inventory, Operating Rate - Pure benzene port inventory is 14.40 tons (- 0.20), and styrene's East China port inventory is 161,500 tons (+12,700), in the inventory rebuilding stage. The operating rate of pure benzene downstream such as caprolactam is 93.72% (+5.31), and styrene's operating rate is 78.2% (+0.5) [1]. IV. Styrene Downstream Operating Rate and Production Profit - Among styrene's downstream products, EPS production profit is 93 yuan/ton (- 160), PS production profit is - 107 yuan/ton (- 60), and ABS production profit is - 66 yuan/ton (+2). EPS operating rate is 58.08% (+14.41), PS operating rate is 56.70% (+1.70), and ABS operating rate is 71.10% (+0) [2]. V. Pure Benzene Downstream Operating Rate and Production Profit - For pure benzene's downstream products, caprolactam production profit is - 1795 yuan/ton (+0), phenol - acetone production profit is - 751 yuan/ton (- 62), aniline production profit is - 161 yuan/ton (- 262), and adipic acid production profit is - 1386 yuan/ton (+0) [1]. 4. Strategy - **Single - side**: Hold a wait - and - see attitude towards pure benzene and styrene. - **Basis and Inter - period**: Carry out positive arbitrage, buy near - month BZ paper goods and sell BZ2603 futures. - **Cross - variety**: Expand the BZN processing fee when it is low in the peak season. Hold a wait - and - see attitude towards the EB - BZ spread [4].

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings No information about industry investment ratings is provided in the reports. 2. Core Views Urea - The current core driver of the futures market is the strong expectation of the substantial relaxation of export policies. China may resume urea exports to India, opening an incremental market window. The policy requires concentrated exports by the end of September, overlapping with the domestic autumn storage period and creating demand resonance. The short - term market is likely to fluctuate strongly, and future attention should be paid to the impact of enterprise maintenance on daily production, changes in rigid and reserve demand, and export port collection [1]. Polyester Industry Chain - **PX**: Domestic PX supply is expected to increase, and the supply - demand situation in August is expected to weaken marginally. However, due to the traditional peak demand season and new PTA device commissioning expectations, the medium - term supply - demand pressure is not significant. It is expected that PX prices will be supported at low levels, but the upward space is limited. It is recommended to treat PX11 as a short - term range of 6600 - 6900 and expand the PX - SC spread at low levels [4]. - **PTA**: In August, due to low processing margins, PTA device maintenance plans increased, and short - term basis was supported. However, with the commissioning of new devices, the medium - term supply - demand is expected to be weak, and the upward space for the basis is limited. In the short term, there is still some support, and it is recommended to treat TA as a short - term range of 4600 - 4800 and conduct reverse arbitrage on TA1 - 5 at high levels [4]. - **MEG**: Domestic coal - based MEG supply has increased, and overseas supply is expected to change. In August, the supply - demand is near balance, and it is expected to fluctuate with commodities. It is recommended that EG01 fluctuate in the range of 4300 - 4500 in the short term [4]. - **Short - fiber**: Both supply and demand have increased slightly. With the approaching of the peak demand season, there is some support for prices, but the cost - side drive is limited. It is recommended that PF10 fluctuate in the range of 6300 - 6500 in the short term, and the processing margin on the futures market fluctuate in the range of 800 - 1100 [4]. - **Bottle - chip**: During the peak consumption season in August, with device production cuts, the processing margin has support at the bottom. The absolute price still follows the cost - side. It is recommended that PR is similar to PTA in terms of unilateral trading, and the main - contract processing margin on the futures market is expected to fluctuate in the range of 350 - 500 yuan/ton, and go long on the processing margin at low levels in the short term [4]. Methanol - The current methanol market has a relatively high port inventory year - on - year, mainly due to a large amount of imports in August, and imports in September are still expected to exceed 1.4 million tons. The demand side is differentiated, with the traditional sector remaining weak, while MTO profits have improved. Attention should be paid to the start - up progress of a port MTO device at the end of August to early September. The 09 contract has accumulated a large amount of inventory, while the 01 contract is supported by the seasonal peak season and Iranian gas - restriction expectations [7][8]. Chlor - alkali Industry - **Caustic Soda**: The overall sentiment in the industrial product futures market has weakened. The caustic soda market rebounded previously and then fell back. The spot market trading is okay, and the spot price is generally stable. The demand has been good recently, but there is an expectation of increased supply in the future, and the increase in the number of warehouse receipts in the main production areas also has a negative impact. It is recommended to try short - selling [14]. - **PVC**: The supply side has new production capacity being put into operation, the domestic trade is weak, and the inventory pressure is increasing. The demand is difficult to improve, and the downstream industry is still in the off - season. It is recommended to be bearish [14]. Polyolefin - Static analysis shows that the supply and demand of PP/PE both increase, inventory is being depleted, and the basis is weak, with high warehouse receipts suppressing the market. Dynamically, PP has more unplanned maintenance and new device delays, and PE has increased maintenance from mid - August to early September, with supply decreasing and demand recovering. In terms of valuation, oil - end profits are good, MTO profits are restored, and PDH profits decline slightly. It is recommended that the unilateral market fluctuate in the short term and continue to hold the LP01 contract [19]. Pure Benzene - Styrene - **Pure Benzene**: In the third quarter, the supply - demand situation of pure benzene is expected to improve, and port inventory is expected to decline in August, providing some support for prices. However, the overall supply is still sufficient, and its own driving force is limited. It is expected to be relatively strongly supported in the short term but will be under pressure in the medium term. BZ2603 should follow the fluctuations of oil prices and styrene [21][22]. - **Styrene**: The short - term supply of styrene remains high, but with profit compression, some devices may be shut down for maintenance. Downstream 3S loads have increased, and export expectations have increased due to overseas device maintenance. The supply - demand situation is expected to improve, and port inventory is expected to continue to decline. It is expected that styrene prices will be supported at low levels, but the rebound is limited. It is recommended that EB09 fluctuate in the range of 7100 - 7400 in the short term and be treated as a short - selling opportunity on rebounds [22]. Crude Oil - Overnight oil prices were weak, mainly due to the expected increase in Russian supply from the proposed Russia - Ukraine summit by Trump and market concerns about oversupply. However, the gasoline crack spread has rebounded, and refinery processing volume is at a seasonal high, providing some support for oil prices. It is expected that oil prices will continue to fluctuate weakly in the short term. It is recommended to be bearish, expand the spread between October - November/December contracts at low levels, and wait for opportunities to expand the spread in the options market after volatility increases [24][26]. 3. Summaries by Relevant Catalogs Urea - **Futures Prices**: On August 19, compared with August 18, the prices of most urea futures contracts increased, with the increase ranging from 2.74% to 3.59%. The price of the methanol main contract decreased by 0.21% [1]. - **Futures Contract Spreads**: The spreads of some urea futures contracts changed, such as the 01 - 05 contract spread increasing by 38.89% [1]. - **Main Positions**: The long - position of the top 20 increased by 12.03%, and the short - position of the top 20 increased by 16.18% [1]. - **Upstream Raw Materials**: The prices of most upstream raw materials remained stable, with only a slight increase in the price of synthetic ammonia in Shandong [1]. - **Spot Market Prices**: The spot prices of urea in various regions remained unchanged [1]. - **Regional Spreads**: The regional spreads of urea remained stable [1]. - **Basis**: The basis of urea in various regions changed, with some showing a significant decline [1]. - **Downstream Products**: The prices of most downstream products remained stable, with only a 0.60% increase in the price of melamine in Shandong [1]. - **Fertilizer Market**: The prices of most fertilizers remained stable [1]. - **Supply - Demand Situation**: The daily and weekly production of domestic urea changed, with a slight decrease in daily production and an increase in weekly production. The inventory in factories and ports also changed, with an increase in factory inventory and a decrease in port inventory [1]. Polyester Industry Chain - **Downstream Polyester Product Prices and Cash Flows**: The prices of most downstream polyester products decreased slightly, and the cash flows of some products changed [4]. - **PX - Related Prices and Spreads**: The price of CFR China PX increased by 0.2%, and some spreads also changed [4]. - **PTA - Related Prices and Spreads**: The price of PTA East China spot increased by 0.4%, and the basis and processing margins changed [4]. - **MEG - Related Prices and Spreads**: The price of MEG East China spot decreased by 0.4%, and the basis and profits also changed [4]. - **Polyester Industry Chain Operating Rates**: The operating rates of various segments in the polyester industry chain changed, with some increasing and some decreasing [4]. Methanol - **Methanol Prices and Spreads**: The prices of methanol futures contracts decreased slightly, and the basis and regional spreads changed [7]. - **Methanol Inventory**: The inventory of methanol enterprises, ports, and the social inventory all increased [7]. - **Methanol Upstream and Downstream Operating Rates**: The operating rates of upstream domestic and overseas enterprises and downstream industries changed, with some increasing and some decreasing [7]. Chlor - alkali Industry - **PVC, Caustic Soda Spot & Futures**: The prices of PVC and caustic soda spot and futures changed, with some increasing and some decreasing [14]. - **Caustic Soda Overseas Quotes & Export Profits**: The overseas quotes of caustic soda remained stable, and the export profit decreased [14]. - **PVC Overseas Quotes & Export Profits**: The overseas quotes of PVC remained stable, and the export profit increased [14]. - **Supply: Chlor - alkali Operating Rates & Industry Profits**: The operating rates of the chlor - alkali industry and industry profits changed, with some increasing and some decreasing [14]. - **Demand: Caustic Soda Downstream Operating Rates**: The operating rates of caustic soda downstream industries increased [14]. - **Demand: PVC Downstream Products Operating Rates**: The operating rates of PVC downstream products industries changed slightly [14]. - **Chlor - alkali Inventory: Social & Factory Inventories**: The inventory of caustic soda and PVC increased [14]. Polyolefin - **Polyolefin Prices and Spreads**: The prices of polyolefin futures contracts decreased slightly, and the basis and spreads changed [19]. - **PE and PP Inventory**: The inventory of PE and PP enterprises and traders changed, with some increasing and some decreasing [19]. - **PE and PP Upstream and Downstream Operating Rates**: The operating rates of PE and PP upstream and downstream industries changed, with some increasing and some decreasing [19]. Pure Benzene - Styrene - **Upstream Prices and Spreads**: The prices of upstream raw materials such as crude oil and naphtha changed, and the spreads also changed [21]. - **Styrene - Related Prices and Spreads**: The price of styrene East China spot decreased by 0.1%, and the basis and cash flows changed [21]. - **Pure Benzene and Styrene Downstream Cash Flows**: The cash flows of downstream products such as phenol and caprolactam changed [21]. - **Pure Benzene and Styrene Inventory**: The inventory of pure benzene and styrene in Jiangsu ports changed, with pure benzene inventory decreasing and styrene inventory increasing [21]. - **Pure Benzene and Styrene Industry Chain Operating Rates**: The operating rates of various segments in the pure benzene and styrene industry chain changed, with some increasing and some decreasing [22]. Crude Oil - **Crude Oil Prices and Spreads**: The prices of Brent, WTI, and SC crude oil decreased, and the spreads also changed [24]. - **Refined Oil Prices and Spreads**: The prices of refined oil products such as NYM RBOB and NYM ULSD increased slightly, and the spreads changed [24]. - **Refined Oil Crack Spreads**: The crack spreads of gasoline, diesel, and jet fuel in different regions changed [24].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Views of the Report - The current fundamental market of crude oil is healthy. With low inventories in Cushing, combined with hurricane expectations and Russia - related events, crude oil has upward momentum. However, the seasonal demand weakness in mid - August will limit its upside. A short - term target price of $70.4/barrel for WTI is given, suggesting short - term long positions on dips and stop - profit, and left - side ambush for Russian geopolitical expectations in September and the hurricane supply - disruption season when oil prices slump sharply [2]. - For methanol, coal prices are rising, increasing methanol costs, but coal - to - methanol profits are still at a high level year - on - year. Domestic and overseas production capacity is increasing, leading to high supply pressure. Traditional demand has low profits, and olefin demand is weak. It is recommended to wait and see as the current situation is weak but may improve in the peak season [4]. - Regarding urea, domestic production has started to increase, and although enterprise profits are low, they are expected to bottom out. Supply is relatively loose. Domestic agricultural demand is ending, and overall demand is average. The price range is narrowing, and it is advisable to focus on long - position opportunities on dips [6]. - For rubber, it is expected to oscillate in the short term. A neutral approach is recommended, and partial closing of the long RU2601 and short RU2509 position is suggested [10]. - For PVC, the overall situation is supply - strong and demand - weak with high valuations. The cost of calcium carbide has declined, and the fundamentals are poor. It is recommended to wait and see [10]. - In the case of styrene, the market macro - sentiment is good, and there is still cost support. The BZN spread has room for upward repair, and port inventories are decreasing. The price may follow the cost to oscillate upward [12][13]. - For polyethylene, the market is expecting favorable policies from the Chinese Ministry of Finance in the third quarter, and there is cost support. But inventory pressure and seasonal factors exist. It is recommended to hold short positions [15]. - For polypropylene, Shandong refinery profits have stopped falling and rebounded, and the cost may dominate the market. It is expected to follow crude oil to oscillate stronger [16]. - For PX, the load is high, and downstream PTA has many short - term maintenance. However, due to new PTA installations, PX is expected to continue inventory reduction. There is support for valuation, but the upside is limited in the short term. It is recommended to follow crude oil to go long on dips [18][19]. - For PTA, supply may continue to increase inventory, and the processing fee has limited room. Demand is slightly improving, and it is recommended to follow PX to go long on dips when the peak - season demand improves [20]. - For ethylene glycol, the supply load is decreasing, and downstream load is increasing. Port inventories are decreasing, but the industry is expected to enter an inventory - accumulation cycle. Valuation is relatively high, and there is downward pressure on short - term valuation [21]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Crude Oil - **Market Quotes**: WTI main crude oil futures rose $0.14, or 0.22%, to $63.28; Brent main crude oil futures rose $0.33, or 0.50%, to $66.46; INE main crude oil futures fell 3.70 yuan, or 0.76%, to 482.6 yuan [1]. - **Data**: China's weekly crude oil data shows that crude oil arrival inventory increased by 1.37 million barrels to 207.19 million barrels, a 0.67% increase. Gasoline commercial inventory decreased by 1.81 million barrels to 90.14 million barrels, a 1.97% decrease. Diesel commercial inventory decreased by 0.96 million barrels to 104.59 million barrels, a 0.91% decrease. Total refined oil commercial inventory decreased by 2.77 million barrels to 194.74 million barrels, a 1.40% decrease [1]. Methanol - **Market Quotes**: On August 18, the 01 - contract fell 16 yuan/ton to 2396 yuan/ton, and the spot price fell 23 yuan/ton, with a basis of - 94 [4]. - **Fundamentals**: Coal prices are rising, increasing methanol costs, but coal - to - methanol profits are still high year - on - year. Domestic and overseas production capacity is increasing, leading to high supply pressure. Traditional demand has low profits, and olefin demand is weak [4]. Urea - **Market Quotes**: On August 18, the 01 - contract rose 17 yuan/ton to 1754 yuan/ton, and the spot price rose 30 yuan/ton, with a basis of - 24 [6]. - **Fundamentals**: Domestic production has started to increase, and although enterprise profits are low, they are expected to bottom out. Supply is relatively loose. Domestic agricultural demand is ending, and overall demand is average [6]. Rubber - **Market Quotes**: NR and RU oscillated and consolidated [8]. - **Data**: As of August 14, 2025, the operating load of all - steel tires of Shandong tire enterprises was 63.07%, up 2.09 percentage points from last week and 7.42 percentage points from the same period last year. The operating load of semi - steel tires of domestic tire enterprises was 72.25%, down 2.28 percentage points from last week and 6.41 percentage points from the same period last year. As of August 10, 2025, China's natural rubber social inventory was 127.8 tons, a 0.85% decrease. The total inventory of dark - colored rubber was 79.7 tons, a 0.8% decrease, and the total inventory of light - colored rubber was 48 tons, a 0.8% decrease. RU inventory increased by 1%. As of August 17, 2025, the inventory of natural rubber in Qingdao was 48.54 (- 0.18) tons [9]. - **Analysis of Long and Short Views**: Bulls believe that weather and rubber - forest conditions in Southeast Asia, especially Thailand, may lead to production cuts, the seasonal trend turns upward in the second half of the year, and China's demand is expected to improve. Bears think that macro expectations are uncertain, demand is in the seasonal off - season, and the production - cut amplitude may be lower than expected [12]. PVC - **Market Quotes**: The PVC01 contract fell 43 yuan to 5054 yuan, the spot price of Changzhou SG - 5 was 4800 (- 50) yuan/ton, the basis was - 254 yuan/ton, and the 9 - 1 spread was - 134 (+9) yuan/ton [10]. - **Fundamentals**: The cost of calcium carbide has decreased, the overall operating rate of PVC is 80.3%, up 0.9%. The downstream operating rate is 42.8%, down 0.1%. Factory inventory is 32.7 tons (- 1), and social inventory is 81.2 tons (+3.5). The enterprise's comprehensive profit is at a high level of the year, with high valuation pressure, low maintenance volume, high production, and weak downstream demand. The Indian anti - dumping policy affects exports [10]. Styrene - **Market Quotes**: Spot and futures prices fell, and the basis weakened [12]. - **Analysis**: The market macro - sentiment is good, and there is still cost support. The BZN spread is at a low level in the same period, with large upward - repair space. The supply of pure benzene is still abundant, and the production of styrene is increasing. Port inventories are decreasing significantly. The short - term BZN may be repaired, and the price may follow the cost to oscillate upward [12][13]. Polyethylene - **Market Quotes**: Futures prices fell [15]. - **Analysis**: The market is expecting favorable policies from the Chinese Ministry of Finance in the third quarter, and there is cost support. Inventory pressure from traders is high, and demand is in the seasonal off - season. In August, there is a large production - capacity release plan. It is recommended to hold short positions [15]. Polypropylene - **Market Quotes**: Futures prices fell [16]. - **Analysis**: Shandong refinery profits have stopped falling and rebounded, and the supply of propylene is expected to increase. The downstream operating rate is seasonally oscillating downward. In August, there is a planned production - capacity release of 45 tons. In the context of weak supply and demand, the cost may dominate the market, and it is expected to follow crude oil to oscillate stronger [16]. PX - **Market Quotes**: The PX11 contract rose 72 yuan to 6760 yuan, PX CFR rose 6 dollars to 833 dollars, the basis was 88 yuan (- 27), and the 11 - 1 spread was 36 yuan (+30) [18]. - **Fundamentals**: China's PX load is 84.3%, up 2.3%, and Asia's load is 74.1%, up 0.5%. Some devices have restarted or reduced load. PTA load is 76.4%, up 1.7%. In early August, South Korea's PX exports to China were 11.2 tons, down 0.5 tons year - on - year. Inventories decreased in June. PXN is 255 dollars (+2), and naphtha crack spread is 88 dollars (+7). PX is expected to continue inventory reduction, and there is support for valuation, but the upside is limited in the short term [18][19]. PTA - **Market Quotes**: The PTA01 contract rose 30 yuan to 4746 yuan, the East China spot price rose 10 yuan to 4670 yuan, the basis was - 12 yuan (+1), and the 9 - 1 spread was - 50 yuan (- 10) [20]. - **Fundamentals**: PTA load is 76.4%, up 1.7%. Some devices have stopped or restarted. The downstream load is 89.4%, up 0.6%. Terminal loads are increasing. Social inventory (excluding credit warehouse receipts) on August 8 was 227.3 tons, up 3.3 tons. The spot processing fee fell 19 yuan to 178 yuan, and the futures processing fee rose 2 yuan to 335 yuan. Supply may continue to increase inventory, and the processing fee has limited room. Demand is slightly improving [20]. Ethylene Glycol - **Market Quotes**: The EG09 contract fell 23 yuan to 4346 yuan, the East China spot price fell 21 yuan to 4441 yuan, the basis was 92 yuan (+4), and the 9 - 1 spread was - 46 yuan (- 3) [21]. - **Fundamentals**: The supply load is 66.4%, down 2%. Some devices have restarted or reduced load. The downstream load is 89.4%, up 0.6%. Import arrival forecast is 14.1 tons, and port inventory is 54.7 tons, down 0.6 tons. The cost of ethylene is flat, and the price of coal has risen. The industry is expected to enter an inventory - accumulation cycle, and the valuation is relatively high, with downward pressure on short - term valuation [21].

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. Core Viewpoints - Although the geopolitical premium has completely dissipated and the macro environment is bearish, current oil prices are relatively undervalued. The static fundamentals and dynamic forecasts remain favorable, presenting a good opportunity for left - hand side layout. If the geopolitical premium re - emerges, oil prices will have more upside potential [2] - For methanol, its valuation is still high, downstream demand is weak, and prices face pressure. It is recommended to wait and see [4] - For urea, domestic demand is currently weak, but its overall valuation is low and the room for further decline is limited. It is advisable to pay attention to going long at low prices and wait for potential positive factors [6] - For rubber, the price has risen recently. It is recommended to adopt a neutral approach and conduct short - term trading. Consider the strategy of going long on RU2601 and shorting on RU2509 for band trading [13] - For PVC, the supply is strong, demand is weak, and the valuation is high. It is necessary to observe whether exports can reverse the domestic inventory build - up situation. It is recommended to wait and see [13] - For styrene, the BZN spread is expected to repair. After the high - level port inventory is depleted, the styrene price may follow the cost side and fluctuate upwards [15][16] - For polyethylene, the short - term contradiction has shifted from cost - driven decline to high - maintenance - promoted inventory depletion. The price will be determined by the game between the cost and supply sides in the short term. It is recommended to hold short positions [18] - For polypropylene, the cost side may dominate the market, and the price is expected to fluctuate strongly following crude oil in July [19] - For PX, it is expected to continue de - stocking, and the valuation has support at the bottom, but the upside is limited in the short term. Pay attention to the opportunity of going long following crude oil after the peak season arrives [21][22] - For PTA, it is expected to continue to build inventory, and the processing fee has limited room for operation. Pay attention to the opportunity of going long following PX after the downstream performance improves in the peak season [23] - For ethylene glycol, the fundamentals will change from strong to weak, and the short - term valuation is under downward pressure [24] Summary by Category Crude Oil - **Market Quotes**: WTI main crude oil futures closed down $0.34, a 0.54% decline, at $62.74; Brent main crude oil futures closed down $0.37, a 0.56% decline, at $65.74; INE main crude oil futures closed down 5.70 yuan, a 1.15% decline, at 489.5 yuan [1] - **Data**: US EIA weekly data showed that US commercial crude oil inventories increased by 3.04 million barrels to 426.70 million barrels, a 0.72% increase; SPR replenished 0.23 million barrels to 403.20 million barrels, a 0.06% increase; gasoline inventories decreased by 0.79 million barrels to 226.29 million barrels, a 0.35% decrease; diesel inventories increased by 0.71 million barrels to 113.69 million barrels, a 0.63% increase; fuel oil inventories decreased by 0.07 million barrels to 19.73 million barrels, a 0.33% decrease; aviation kerosene inventories decreased by 0.62 million barrels to 43.74 million barrels, a 1.40% decrease [1] Methanol - **Market Quotes**: On August 13, the 01 contract fell 17 yuan/ton to 2479 yuan/ton, and the spot price fell 2 yuan/ton, with a basis of - 104 [4] - **Analysis**: Domestic production has declined again, but corporate profits remain high. Future supply is likely to increase marginally. Port inventories are rising due to faster unloading and shutdown of port MTO plants. Inland inventories are low due to olefin procurement support. The valuation is high, downstream demand is weak, and prices face pressure [4] Urea - **Market Quotes**: On August 13, the 01 contract fell 9 yuan/ton to 1747 yuan/ton, and the spot price rose 10 yuan/ton, with a basis of - 27 [6] - **Analysis**: Domestic production continues to decline, and corporate profits are at a low level but are expected to bottom out. Overall supply is relatively loose. Domestic agricultural demand is ending, and the market is entering the off - season. Future demand will mainly come from compound fertilizers and exports. Domestic demand is weak, and inventory depletion is slow [6] Rubber - **Market Quotes**: NR and RU fluctuated and consolidated [9] - **Analysis**: Bulls believe that weather and rubber forest conditions in Southeast Asia may lead to production cuts, there is a seasonal upward trend in the second half of the year, and Chinese demand is expected to improve. Bears believe that macro expectations are uncertain, demand is in the seasonal off - season, and the production cut may be less than expected [10] - **Industry Situation**: As of August 7, 2025, the full - steel tire production rate in Shandong was 60.98%, down 0.08 percentage points from last week but up 8.72 percentage points from the previous year. Domestic sales were slow, but exports were good. The semi - steel tire production rate was 74.53%, down 0.10 percentage points from last week and 4.21 percentage points from the previous year. Semi - steel tire factories had inventory pressure [11] - **Inventory**: As of August 3, 2025, China's natural rubber social inventory was 1.289 million tons, a decrease of 0.48 tons from the previous period, a 0.4% decline. The total inventory of dark rubber was 804,000 tons, a 0.13% decrease, and the total inventory of light rubber was 485,000 tons, a 0.8% decrease. As of August 11, 2025, the inventory in Qingdao was 487,200 (- 14,000) tons [12] - **Operation Suggestion**: Adopt a neutral approach and conduct short - term trading. Consider the strategy of going long on RU2601 and shorting on RU2509 for band trading [13] PVC - **Market Quotes**: The PVC09 contract fell 31 yuan to 5016 yuan, and the Changzhou SG - 5 spot price was 4900 (- 10) yuan/ton, with a basis of - 116 (+ 21) yuan/ton and a 9 - 1 spread of - 151 (- 5) yuan/ton [13] - **Analysis**: The overall production rate was 79.5%, up 2.6%. The demand - side downstream production rate was 42.9%, up 0.8%. Factory inventory was 337,000 tons (- 8000 tons), and social inventory was 777,000 tons (+ 54,000 tons). Corporate comprehensive profits reached a high for the year, and the valuation was under pressure. Production was at a five - year high, and downstream production was at a five - year low. Indian anti - dumping policies were extended [13] Styrene - **Market Quotes**: Spot and futures prices both fell, and the basis remained unchanged [15] - **Analysis**: The macro market sentiment was positive, and there was still support on the cost side. The BZN spread was at a relatively low level for the same period and had a large upward repair space. The production rate of pure benzene decreased slightly, and the supply was still abundant. The profit of ethylbenzene dehydrogenation decreased, but the styrene production rate continued to rise. Port inventory decreased significantly. Demand in the low - season was weak [15][16] Polyethylene - **Market Quotes**: Futures prices fell [18] - **Analysis**: The market was expecting favorable policies from the Chinese Ministry of Finance in the third quarter, and there was still support on the cost side. Spot prices remained unchanged, and the valuation had limited downward space. Trader inventory was at a high level, and the support for prices was weakening. Demand was in the seasonal off - season, and the production rate of agricultural film orders was low. There was a plan to put 1.1 million tons of production capacity into operation in August [18] Polypropylene - **Market Quotes**: Futures prices rose [19] - **Analysis**: The profit of Shandong refineries stopped falling and rebounded, and the production rate was expected to recover. Downstream production rates were seasonally declining. Only 450,000 tons of planned production capacity was to be put into operation in August. In the context of weak supply and demand, the cost side may dominate the market, and prices are expected to fluctuate strongly following crude oil in July [19] PX - **Market Quotes**: The PX09 contract fell 48 yuan to 6784 yuan, and PX CFR fell 3 dollars to 831 dollars, with a basis of 114 (+ 81) yuan and a 9 - 1 spread of 64 (- 20) yuan [21] - **Analysis**: The Chinese production rate was 82%, up 0.9%; the Asian production rate was 73.6%, up 0.2%. Some domestic and overseas plants had load adjustments. PTA production rate was 74.7%, up 2.1%. In August, South Korean PX exports to China decreased year - on - year. June - end inventory decreased month - on - month. The PXN was $264 (- 3), and the naphtha crack spread was $85 (+ 6) [21][22] PTA - **Market Quotes**: The PTA09 contract fell 34 yuan to 4692 yuan, and the East China spot price fell 10 yuan to 4695 yuan, with a basis of - 13 (0) yuan and a 9 - 1 spread of - 34 (0) yuan [23] - **Analysis**: The PTA production rate was 74.7%, up 2.1%. Some plants had load adjustments. The downstream production rate was 88.8%, up 0.7%. Terminal production rates were mixed. Inventory increased in August. Spot and futures processing fees increased. New PTA plants were put into operation, but demand from the terminal and polyester sectors was weak [23] Ethylene Glycol - **Market Quotes**: The EG09 contract fell 26 yuan to 4406 yuan, and the East China spot price fell 8 yuan to 4494 yuan, with a basis of 76 (0) yuan and a 9 - 1 spread of - 50 (- 4) yuan [24] - **Analysis**: The overall production rate was 68.4%, down 0.2%. The production rate of synthetic gas - based plants increased, while that of ethylene - based plants decreased. Some domestic and overseas plants had load adjustments. Downstream production rates were recovering from the off - season but were still at a low level. Import arrivals were expected to be 141,000 tons, and port inventory increased by 37,000 tons [24]