来源：金十数据 特朗普表示，他相信2026年中期选举将围绕"定价"问题展开。 随着共和党进入一个掌握国会控制权面临考验的关键时期，他于当地时间上周五晚间告诉POLITICO， 他有信心美国民众将接受他的经济主张：即他的政府正在清理从前总统拜登那里继承的"烂摊子"。 "我认为中期选举将关乎我们国家的成功。它将关乎定价问题，"特朗普在一次独家采访中表示。"因 为，你知道，他们留给我们的是高物价，而我们在把物价降下来。能源价格降了很多。汽油价格也降了 很多。" 上周三公布的一个出乎意料的良好GDP数据为他的更广泛论述提供了支持，给了特朗普更多可以谈论的 好消息。 "你看到那个4.3%了吗？"特朗普问道，他指的是上周一份新的政府报告，该报告显示第三季度经济年化 增长率为4.3%。"民主党人气炸了。他们的脑袋都要气炸了。" 根据劳工部最新的消费者价格指数报告，11月份通胀率也放缓至2.7%的年率，这是自7月以来最小的同 比涨幅。 但特朗普面临的一个迫在眉睫的经济逆风是政府可能在明年1月底再次关门。他再次敦促参议院共和党 人废除"冗长辩论"规则，认为它已成为治理的障碍。 "冗长辩论正在伤害共和党，"特朗普说，他呼吁共和党 ...

从 GDP 分项来看，居民消费延续修复，剔除库存后的私人投资边际放缓， 政府投资与消费明显回升。具体来看， 证券研究报告 宏观 美国三季度 GDP 折年增速反弹至 4.3% 2025 年 12 月 24 日│中国内地 动态点评 2025 年三季度美国 GDP 增长大幅超预期回升至 4.3%，衡量潜在动能的私 人消费+投资增速上升至 3%。2025 年三季度 GDP 季环比折年增速从今年 二季度的 3.8%进一步上行至 4.3%，高于彭博一致预期的 3.3%，同比增速 上行 0.2pp 至 2.3%。从分项上看，关税对存货和净出口的扰动仍然存在， 剔除上述扰动项后，衡量经济潜在动能的"私人消费+投资"增速由 2.9% 边际加速至 3.0%。三季度 GDP 超预期导致联储 2026 年降息预期有所回撤： 截至北京时间 23 点 20 分，相较数据公布前，联储 26 年降息预期回撤 4bp 至 54bp，美元指数微涨 0.1%至 98.1，2y、10y 美债收益率分别上行 5bp、 3bp 至 3.54%、4.18%，标普 500 期货先跌后涨，上涨 0.1%。 1）居民消费增速由 2.5%加速至 3.5%，对 G ...

责任编辑：王永生 责任编辑：王永生 斯达克和纽约证券交易所周四表示，美国股票市场在12月24日和12月26日将如期开市。数小时之前，美 国总统特朗普下令联邦政府在这两天关门。交易所运营方将按原计划于美东时间12月24日下午1:00提前 闭市，12月26日交易时间正常。特朗普周四下令联邦政府所有行政部门和机构在圣诞节前一天和圣诞节 次日关闭，其雇员不用上班。 斯达克和纽约证券交易所周四表示，美国股票市场在12月24日和12月26日将如期开市。数小时之前，美 国总统特朗普下令联邦政府在这两天关门。交易所运营方将按原计划于美东时间12月24日下午1:00提前 闭市，12月26日交易时间正常。特朗普周四下令联邦政府所有行政部门和机构在圣诞节前一天和圣诞节 次日关闭，其雇员不用上班。 ...

尽管市场对非农就业和零售销售数据的最初反应有所回落，交易员们仍坚定认为美联储将在2026年降息 两次。由于政府关门，延迟公布的就业数据存在诸多限制，这也使得对上月超预期就业增长的乐观情绪 有所减弱。但这些数据并未成为当前市场降息预期的障碍，而市场的预期比美联储自身的立场更加鸽 派。 来源：滚动播报 ...

更多消息，持续更新中 12月5日，被视作美联储主席候选人领跑者的哈塞特在福克斯商业频道发表讲话。他表示，现在是美联 储"谨慎降息"的好时机，并且他预计央行将在下周采取行动。 他同时指出，人工智能经济的发展速度已超越20世纪90年代的互联网经济。针对关税问题，他警告称， 若最高法院最终否决现行关税政策，可能引发巨大混乱。 他澄清未与特朗普讨论过美联储主席相关议题，支持贝森特对美联储主席的看法。 他预计政府关门的影响比预期的要大，尽管如此，经济有望在明年第一季度实现更强劲的反弹。2026年 的生产率可能会达到4%。如果（明年）一季度和二季度的经济增速为3%，将会感到失望。 ...

Investment Rating - The report indicates a strong profit growth for S&P 500 companies, with a year-on-year increase of 12% in Q3 2025, despite macroeconomic concerns [7][8]. Core Insights - The U.S. government shutdown negatively impacted Q4 economic growth by approximately 1.1 to 1.2 percentage points, but a rebound to 3.1% growth is expected in Q1 due to government spending [1][2]. - The Supreme Court's skepticism regarding the President's authority to impose tariffs under IEEPA may lead to partial overturning of tariffs, although significant presidential power remains [1][4]. - The labor market is anticipated to weaken, potentially prompting the Federal Reserve to lower interest rates in December, although uncertainty remains [1][5]. - The AI sector is experiencing significant capital expenditure growth, with projections for large-scale data centers raised from $470 billion to $530 billion [8][9]. Summary by Sections Economic Impact - The government shutdown has caused a drag on economic growth, but a rebound is expected due to increased government spending [1][2]. - The labor market's performance will be crucial for the Federal Reserve's decisions on interest rates [5][10]. Tariff and Legal Considerations - The Supreme Court's upcoming decision on tariffs could reshape the landscape of U.S. trade policy, with implications for specific countries [4][1]. Corporate Performance - S&P 500 companies showed strong profit growth, with a notable increase in guidance for Q4, indicating positive market expectations [7][8]. - AI companies are financially robust, with strong cash flows and low debt levels, positioning them well for future growth despite market volatility [9][18]. Currency and Market Outlook - The U.S. dollar is expected to gradually depreciate as economic performance weakens, influenced by labor market data and potential interest rate cuts [10][12]. - Emerging market currencies may perform better if the U.S. economy underperforms, with the potential for a stable yuan to support the Asian region [12][10].

Core Viewpoint - There is a significant division within the Federal Reserve regarding whether to continue interest rate cuts in December, with concerns about persistent inflation and tariff effects versus worries about weak employment and slowing demand [1] Group 1: Federal Reserve's Internal Disagreement - Some officials advocate for pausing interest rate cuts due to concerns over sticky inflation and tariff impacts [1] - Dovish members emphasize the importance of addressing weak employment and declining demand [1] - The government shutdown has interrupted key economic data, exacerbating the division among decision-makers [1] Group 2: Current Interest Rate Context - The current interest rate is in the range of 3.75% to 4% [1] - Market expectations indicate a slightly higher probability of a rate cut in December, despite the internal Fed conflict [1] - The situation reflects a rare "hawk-dove standoff" within the Federal Reserve in recent years [1]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No investment rating is provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints - The PNBP policy in Indonesia restricts the supply of nickel resources, increasing the cost of nickel supply. The production of nickel - iron in Indonesia remains high, and the amount flowing back to China is expected to increase. Recently, the price of nickel - iron has dropped significantly, leading to a decrease in raw material costs [2]. - Steel mills' production profits have been restored. With the end of the traditional consumption peak season and the expected demand from infrastructure and real estate, stainless - steel mills are expected to increase production, resulting in increased supply pressure [2]. - Downstream demand shows a weak peak - season characteristic. The market's purchasing willingness is low, and the overall inquiry and transaction performance is average. As a result, the national stainless - steel social inventory shows a narrow increase [2]. - Technically, the position increases while the price drops, with a strong short - selling atmosphere and a downward - channel trend. It is recommended to wait and see or adopt a short - selling strategy near the MA30 resistance level, and pay attention to the support at 12,400 [2]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Futures Market - The closing price of the stainless - steel futures main contract is 12,465 yuan/ton, a decrease of 140 yuan; the 12 - 01 contract spread is - 55 yuan/ton, a decrease of 50 - 8008 yuan; the net long position of the top 20 futures holders is - 9,426 lots, a decrease of 305 lots; the main - contract position is 38,421 lots; the warehouse receipt quantity is 71,735 tons, a decrease of 296 tons [2]. 现货市场 - The price of 304/2B rolled stainless - steel in Wuxi is 13,350 yuan/ton, unchanged; the price of scrap stainless - steel 304 in Wuxi is 8,900 yuan/ton, unchanged; the SS main - contract basis is 415 yuan/ton, a decrease of 40 yuan [2]. Upstream Situation - The monthly production of electrolytic nickel is 29,430 tons, an increase of 1,120 tons; the total monthly production of nickel - iron is 21,700 metal tons, a decrease of 300 metal tons; the monthly import volume of refined nickel and alloys is 28,570.87 tons, an increase of 4,144.03 tons; the monthly import volume of nickel - iron is 1.0853 million tons, an increase of 211,200 tons; the SMM1 nickel spot price is 121,300 yuan/ton, an increase of 100 yuan; the average price of nickel - iron (7 - 10%) nationwide is 920 yuan/nickel point, unchanged; the monthly production of Chinese ferrochrome is 757,800 tons, a decrease of 26,900 tons [2]. Industry Situation - The monthly production of 300 - series stainless - steel is 1.7627 million tons, an increase of 24,800 tons; the weekly inventory of 300 - series stainless - steel is 570,800 tons, a decrease of 10,000 tons; the monthly export volume of stainless - steel is 458,500 tons, a decrease of 29,500 tons [2]. Downstream Situation - The cumulative monthly new - construction area of houses is 453.99 million square meters, an increase of 55.9799 million square meters; the monthly production of excavators is 31,600 units, an increase of 4,000 units; the monthly production of large and medium - sized tractors is 26,200 units, a decrease of 500 units; the monthly production of small tractors is 10,000 units, an increase of 1,000 units [2]. Industry News - The State Council's General Office issued 13 measures to further promote private investment. - The government shutdown is likely to end before this weekend. The Senate plans to resume deliberation at 11 am on Monday. Senate Republican leader Thune said that bipartisan cooperation is needed to speed up the process; otherwise, it may take most of this week to complete the legal procedures. - Private - sector data shows that the consumer - price increase in the US slowed for the first time in three months in October. - Trump - appointed Federal Reserve Governor Milan said that the government shutdown will not affect his view of the US economy, and the Fed should cut interest rates by 50 basis points in December [2].

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No industry investment rating is provided in the report. 2. Core View of the Report - Macroeconomic factors include the potential end of the US government shutdown by the weekend, 13 measures proposed by the State Council to boost private investment, and a slowdown in US consumer - price inflation in October. - On the supply side, zinc ore imports are rising due to long - term contract ores arriving at ports and refineries' raw material reserves for winter. However, domestic zinc ore processing fees are down, sulfuric acid prices are falling, squeezing smelter profits and limiting refined zinc output growth. Overseas zinc supply is tight, the SHFE - LME ratio has dropped significantly, and the export window has opened, with a shift towards net exports expected. - On the demand side, the traditional peak seasons of "Golden September and Silver October" were lackluster. The real - estate sector is a drag, while the automotive and home - appliance sectors show some policy - supported bright spots. Downstream demand recovery is weak, with spot premiums low and domestic inventories increasing. LME zinc de - stocking is slowing, and spot premiums are high. - Technically, positions are decreasing, prices are adjusting, and the bullish sentiment has weakened slightly. Attention should be paid to the MA10 support. It is recommended to wait and see for now [3]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Futures Market - The closing price of the SHFE zinc main contract is 22,675 yuan/ton, up 5 yuan; the spread between the 12 - 01 contracts of SHFE zinc is - 30 yuan/ton, up 10 yuan. - The LME three - month zinc quote is 3,085.5 dollars/ton, up 19 dollars. - The total SHFE zinc open interest is 226,896 lots, down 1,204 lots; the net position of the top 20 in SHFE zinc is 15,406 lots, down 421 lots. - SHFE zinc warehouse receipts are 70,518 tons, up 649 tons; SHFE inventory (weekly) is 100,208 tons, down 3,208 tons; LME inventory is 34,900 tons, unchanged [3]. 3.2现货市场 - The spot price of 0 zinc on the Shanghai Non - ferrous Metals Network is 22,660 yuan/ton, up 90 yuan; the spot price of 1 zinc in the Yangtze River Non - ferrous Metals Market is 22,660 yuan/ton, up 240 yuan. - The basis of the ZN main contract is - 15 yuan/ton, up 85 yuan; the LME zinc cash - 3 months spread is 176.55 dollars/ton, up 24.29 dollars. - The arrival price of 50% zinc concentrate in Kunming is 18,310 yuan/ton, down 20 yuan; the price of 85% - 86% crushed zinc in Shanghai is 16,050 yuan/ton, up 50 yuan [3]. 3.3 Upstream Situation - The WBMS zinc supply - demand balance is - 27,800 tons, down 5,700 tons; the ILZSG zinc supply - demand balance is 47,900 tons, up 17,700 tons. - The global zinc mine production by ILZSG is 1.0976 million tons, up 21,400 tons; domestic refined zinc production is 651,000 tons, up 34,000 tons. - Zinc ore imports are 505,400 tons, up 38,100 tons [3]. 3.4 Industry Situation - Refined zinc imports are 22,677.51 tons, down 2,979.32 tons; refined zinc exports are 2,477.83 tons, up 2,166.92 tons. - Zinc social inventory is 161,700 tons, down 100 tons [3]. 3.5 Downstream Situation - The production of galvanized sheets is 2.32 million tons, up 10,000 tons; the sales of galvanized sheets are 2.28 million tons, down 90,000 tons. - The new housing construction area is 453.99 million square meters, up 55.9799 million square meters; the housing completion area is 311.2888 million square meters, up 34.3534 million square meters. - Automobile production is 3.227 million vehicles, up 474,600 vehicles; air - conditioner production is 18.0948 million units, up 1.276 million units [3]. 3.6 Option Market - The implied volatility of at - the - money zinc call options is 12.23%, up 0.04%; the implied volatility of at - the - money zinc put options is 12.23%, up 0.03%. - The 20 - day historical volatility of at - the - money zinc options is 8.51%, down 0.86%; the 60 - day historical volatility of at - the - money zinc options is 8.98%, down 0.03% [3]. 3.7 Industry News - The State Council's General Office proposed 13 measures to further promote private investment. - The US government shutdown may end before this weekend. The Senate plans to resume deliberation on Monday morning, and bipartisan cooperation is needed to speed up the process. - US consumer - price inflation slowed for the first time in three months in October. - Trump - endorsed Fed nominee Milan believes the government shutdown won't affect his view of the US economy and that a 50 - basis - point rate cut is needed in December [3].

Report Industry Investment Ratings There is no information provided regarding the report's industry investment ratings in the given content. Core Views of the Report - The report provides daily views and strategies for various commodities, including precious metals, base metals, energy, and agricultural products. It assesses the trends of each commodity, such as price movements, supply - demand relationships, and the impact of macro - economic factors [2]. Summary by Commodity Category Precious Metals - **Gold**: Government shutdown continues to affect liquidity, with a trend intensity of 0 [2][6]. - **Silver**: Expected to have an oscillating rebound, with a trend intensity of - 1 [2][6]. Base Metals - **Copper**: Inventory increases, and the price oscillates, with a trend intensity of 0 [2][10]. - **Zinc**: Ranges within an interval, with a trend intensity of 0 [2][13]. - **Lead**: Overseas inventory continuously decreases, supporting the price, with a trend intensity of 0 [2][16]. - **Tin**: Attention should be paid to macro - impacts, with a trend intensity of 1 [2][20]. - **Aluminum**: Oscillates with a slightly upward trend, with a trend intensity of 1; Alumina runs weakly, with a trend intensity of - 1; Casting aluminum alloy follows electrolytic aluminum [2][22]. - **Nickel**: Accumulated inventory at the smelting end suppresses the price, while uncertainties at the ore end provide support, with a trend intensity of 0; Stainless steel prices oscillate narrowly at a low level, with a trend intensity of 0 [2][24]. Energy and Chemicals - **Carbonate Lithium**: The transfer income is lower than market expectations, leading to a price correction, with a trend intensity of - 1 [2][27]. - **Industrial Silicon**: Attention should be paid to the bottom support, with a trend intensity of 0; Polysilicon's market expectations are unmet, and the market may decline significantly, with a trend intensity of - 2 [2][31]. - **Iron Ore**: Repeats at a high level, with a trend intensity of 0 [2][35]. - **Rebar and Hot - Rolled Coil**: Both oscillate widely, with trend intensities of 0 for both [2][37][38]. - **Silicon Ferrosilicon**: There is an expectation of cost increase, and it oscillates widely, with a trend intensity of 0; Manganese Silico - manganese oscillates widely due to sector sentiment resonance, with a trend intensity of 0 [2][42]. - **Coke and Coking Coal**: Repeat at high levels, with trend intensities of 0 for both [2][45]. Others - **Log**: Oscillates repeatedly [2][47].