来源：市场资讯 （来源：吴说） 《华尔街日报》记者 Nick Timiraos 报道称，美联储内部围绕 12 月是否继续降息出现明显分歧。部分官 员担忧通胀粘性与关税效应，主张暂停降息；而鸽派则认为就业疲软与需求放缓更值得关注。报道称， 政府关门导致关键经济数据中断，加剧了决策层分裂。当前利率位于 3.75%–4% 区间，市场预期 12 月 降息概率仍略高，但美联储内部已出现近年罕见的"鹰鸽对峙"。 ...

高做空思路，关注MA30压力。 免责声明 不锈钢产业日报 2025-11-11 | 项目类别 | 数据指标 | 最新 | 环比 数据指标 | 最新 | 环比 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 期货市场 | 期货主力合约收盘价:不锈钢(日,元/吨) | 12465 | -140 12-01月合约价差:不锈钢(日,元/吨) | -55 | -50 -8008 | | | 期货前20名持仓:净买单量:不锈钢(日,手) | -9426 | -305 主力合约持仓量:不锈钢(日,手) | 38421 | | | | 仓单数量:不锈钢(日,吨) | 71735 | -296 | | | | 现货市场 | 304/2B卷:切边:无锡(日,元/吨) | 13350 | 0 市场价:废不锈钢304:无锡(日,元/吨) | 8900 | 0 | | | SS主力合约基差(日,元/吨) | 415 | -40 | | | | 上游情况 | 电解镍产量(月,吨) | 29430 | 1120 镍铁产量合计(月,万金属吨) | 2.17 | -0.03 | | | 进口数量:精炼镍及合 ...

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No industry investment rating is provided in the report. 2. Core View of the Report - Macroeconomic factors include the potential end of the US government shutdown by the weekend, 13 measures proposed by the State Council to boost private investment, and a slowdown in US consumer - price inflation in October. - On the supply side, zinc ore imports are rising due to long - term contract ores arriving at ports and refineries' raw material reserves for winter. However, domestic zinc ore processing fees are down, sulfuric acid prices are falling, squeezing smelter profits and limiting refined zinc output growth. Overseas zinc supply is tight, the SHFE - LME ratio has dropped significantly, and the export window has opened, with a shift towards net exports expected. - On the demand side, the traditional peak seasons of "Golden September and Silver October" were lackluster. The real - estate sector is a drag, while the automotive and home - appliance sectors show some policy - supported bright spots. Downstream demand recovery is weak, with spot premiums low and domestic inventories increasing. LME zinc de - stocking is slowing, and spot premiums are high. - Technically, positions are decreasing, prices are adjusting, and the bullish sentiment has weakened slightly. Attention should be paid to the MA10 support. It is recommended to wait and see for now [3]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Futures Market - The closing price of the SHFE zinc main contract is 22,675 yuan/ton, up 5 yuan; the spread between the 12 - 01 contracts of SHFE zinc is - 30 yuan/ton, up 10 yuan. - The LME three - month zinc quote is 3,085.5 dollars/ton, up 19 dollars. - The total SHFE zinc open interest is 226,896 lots, down 1,204 lots; the net position of the top 20 in SHFE zinc is 15,406 lots, down 421 lots. - SHFE zinc warehouse receipts are 70,518 tons, up 649 tons; SHFE inventory (weekly) is 100,208 tons, down 3,208 tons; LME inventory is 34,900 tons, unchanged [3]. 3.2现货市场 - The spot price of 0 zinc on the Shanghai Non - ferrous Metals Network is 22,660 yuan/ton, up 90 yuan; the spot price of 1 zinc in the Yangtze River Non - ferrous Metals Market is 22,660 yuan/ton, up 240 yuan. - The basis of the ZN main contract is - 15 yuan/ton, up 85 yuan; the LME zinc cash - 3 months spread is 176.55 dollars/ton, up 24.29 dollars. - The arrival price of 50% zinc concentrate in Kunming is 18,310 yuan/ton, down 20 yuan; the price of 85% - 86% crushed zinc in Shanghai is 16,050 yuan/ton, up 50 yuan [3]. 3.3 Upstream Situation - The WBMS zinc supply - demand balance is - 27,800 tons, down 5,700 tons; the ILZSG zinc supply - demand balance is 47,900 tons, up 17,700 tons. - The global zinc mine production by ILZSG is 1.0976 million tons, up 21,400 tons; domestic refined zinc production is 651,000 tons, up 34,000 tons. - Zinc ore imports are 505,400 tons, up 38,100 tons [3]. 3.4 Industry Situation - Refined zinc imports are 22,677.51 tons, down 2,979.32 tons; refined zinc exports are 2,477.83 tons, up 2,166.92 tons. - Zinc social inventory is 161,700 tons, down 100 tons [3]. 3.5 Downstream Situation - The production of galvanized sheets is 2.32 million tons, up 10,000 tons; the sales of galvanized sheets are 2.28 million tons, down 90,000 tons. - The new housing construction area is 453.99 million square meters, up 55.9799 million square meters; the housing completion area is 311.2888 million square meters, up 34.3534 million square meters. - Automobile production is 3.227 million vehicles, up 474,600 vehicles; air - conditioner production is 18.0948 million units, up 1.276 million units [3]. 3.6 Option Market - The implied volatility of at - the - money zinc call options is 12.23%, up 0.04%; the implied volatility of at - the - money zinc put options is 12.23%, up 0.03%. - The 20 - day historical volatility of at - the - money zinc options is 8.51%, down 0.86%; the 60 - day historical volatility of at - the - money zinc options is 8.98%, down 0.03% [3]. 3.7 Industry News - The State Council's General Office proposed 13 measures to further promote private investment. - The US government shutdown may end before this weekend. The Senate plans to resume deliberation on Monday morning, and bipartisan cooperation is needed to speed up the process. - US consumer - price inflation slowed for the first time in three months in October. - Trump - endorsed Fed nominee Milan believes the government shutdown won't affect his view of the US economy and that a 50 - basis - point rate cut is needed in December [3].

Report Industry Investment Ratings There is no information provided regarding the report's industry investment ratings in the given content. Core Views of the Report - The report provides daily views and strategies for various commodities, including precious metals, base metals, energy, and agricultural products. It assesses the trends of each commodity, such as price movements, supply - demand relationships, and the impact of macro - economic factors [2]. Summary by Commodity Category Precious Metals - **Gold**: Government shutdown continues to affect liquidity, with a trend intensity of 0 [2][6]. - **Silver**: Expected to have an oscillating rebound, with a trend intensity of - 1 [2][6]. Base Metals - **Copper**: Inventory increases, and the price oscillates, with a trend intensity of 0 [2][10]. - **Zinc**: Ranges within an interval, with a trend intensity of 0 [2][13]. - **Lead**: Overseas inventory continuously decreases, supporting the price, with a trend intensity of 0 [2][16]. - **Tin**: Attention should be paid to macro - impacts, with a trend intensity of 1 [2][20]. - **Aluminum**: Oscillates with a slightly upward trend, with a trend intensity of 1; Alumina runs weakly, with a trend intensity of - 1; Casting aluminum alloy follows electrolytic aluminum [2][22]. - **Nickel**: Accumulated inventory at the smelting end suppresses the price, while uncertainties at the ore end provide support, with a trend intensity of 0; Stainless steel prices oscillate narrowly at a low level, with a trend intensity of 0 [2][24]. Energy and Chemicals - **Carbonate Lithium**: The transfer income is lower than market expectations, leading to a price correction, with a trend intensity of - 1 [2][27]. - **Industrial Silicon**: Attention should be paid to the bottom support, with a trend intensity of 0; Polysilicon's market expectations are unmet, and the market may decline significantly, with a trend intensity of - 2 [2][31]. - **Iron Ore**: Repeats at a high level, with a trend intensity of 0 [2][35]. - **Rebar and Hot - Rolled Coil**: Both oscillate widely, with trend intensities of 0 for both [2][37][38]. - **Silicon Ferrosilicon**: There is an expectation of cost increase, and it oscillates widely, with a trend intensity of 0; Manganese Silico - manganese oscillates widely due to sector sentiment resonance, with a trend intensity of 0 [2][42]. - **Coke and Coking Coal**: Repeat at high levels, with trend intensities of 0 for both [2][45]. Others - **Log**: Oscillates repeatedly [2][47].

Group 1 - The prolonged government shutdown has significantly impacted the U.S. financial markets, marking a historical record of 35 days, leading to a shift in market sentiment from cautiousness to panic [1][3][10] - The Nasdaq index fell over 3.2% and the S&P 500 dropped by 2.7%, with technology stocks, particularly semiconductor companies, suffering the most [6][8] - The shutdown has caused a systemic functional halt, affecting IPO approvals, economic data releases, and regulatory processes, which has left investors and the Federal Reserve in a state of uncertainty [8][10] Group 2 - The Treasury's actions to withdraw liquidity from the market, increasing the TGA account balance from $300 billion to over $1 trillion, have led to a significant reduction in available market funds [10][12] - This liquidity withdrawal has had effects similar to an interest rate hike, causing interbank borrowing costs to spike, indicating a severe liquidity crunch in the banking system [12][14] - The current situation mirrors past liquidity crises, with the potential for a self-reinforcing cycle of panic and tightening liquidity [15][27] Group 3 - There are signs of potential compromise between the two political parties, with a proposed plan to reopen the government while continuing budget negotiations [5][19] - The political landscape remains fraught with internal divisions within both parties, complicating the negotiation process and raising doubts about the feasibility of reaching an agreement [22][25] - The ongoing political turmoil has led to a loss of confidence among global investors in U.S. assets, undermining the perception of U.S. Treasury securities as a safe haven [10][27][29]

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the recent actions and statements from the Federal Reserve, highlighting the unexpected hawkish tone from Chairman Powell despite a rate cut and the announcement to pause balance sheet reduction, leading to uncertainty in future rate cuts [4][6][9]. Summary by Sections Federal Reserve Actions - The Federal Reserve cut rates by 25 basis points in October and announced a pause in balance sheet reduction in December, which alleviated some liquidity and economic pressures [4][6]. - The market's expectation for a December rate cut decreased from 90% to around 60% following Powell's hawkish comments, causing a short-term drop in gold and U.S. stocks, while bond yields rose [4][20]. Employment and Inflation - The combination of declining employment and moderate inflation justified the October rate cut, with private sector data indicating a softening labor market [6][9]. - Future rate cuts remain uncertain, as internal divisions within the Fed are growing, with some members advocating for a pause in rate cuts to assess economic conditions [9][10]. Economic Risks - The ongoing government shutdown poses risks to economic and employment data, which could influence the Fed's decision-making regarding future rate cuts [10][13]. - The potential impact of tariffs and the effect of rate cuts on inflation, particularly in sensitive sectors like real estate, are also critical factors to monitor [13][15]. Balance Sheet and Liquidity - The Fed plans to end its balance sheet reduction on December 1, with the balance sheet having shrunk from a peak of $9 trillion to $6.6 trillion, leading to liquidity pressures in the banking system [15][18]. - The increase in Treasury issuance since the debt ceiling was lifted has further tightened market liquidity, necessitating the halt of quantitative tightening to provide a buffer [18][20]. Market Implications - The combination of pausing balance sheet reduction and rate cuts creates a "double easing" effect, which may support the real economy but could also lead to a slowdown in the upward momentum of interest-sensitive assets due to prior extreme pricing of easing expectations [20].

Group 1 - The S&P 500 index may experience a significant breakthrough by the end of the year due to strong earnings reports, the Federal Reserve's easing monetary policy, potential positive outcomes from government shutdowns, and favorable news regarding deleveraging [1][3] - The current period is critical as companies are reporting strong earnings and the Federal Reserve is entering a loosening cycle, which could lead to a rally in the stock market [3] - The VIX index has surged, leading to some deleveraging in the market, which may create opportunities for upward movement in the S&P 500 index [3] Group 2 - The S&P 500 index is projected to reach at least 7000 points by year-end, with the current estimate being considered low [3] - Advancements in artificial intelligence (AI) technology are expected to benefit companies and consumers, enhancing visibility and returns on investments [3] - Lower interest rates anticipated for next year could alleviate financial burdens on households and consumers, further supporting market growth [3]

Core Points - The White House announced that due to the government shutdown, the U.S. government may be unable to release the inflation data for October, marking the first time in history that this data will not be published [1] - The White House emphasized that the funding shortfall has hindered investigators from collecting critical data, which could lead to confusion for businesses, markets, households, and the Federal Reserve [1] - The government shutdown has now lasted for four weeks, with Senate Democrats blocking temporary spending bills unless healthcare subsidies are extended [1] Group 1 - The inability to publish the October inflation report is a significant event that could impact various sectors [1] - The government shutdown has resulted in a funding gap affecting federal employees, including those in key government agencies [2]

美国白宫官方账号发文称，白宫方面已经了解到，下个月可能将是历史上首次没有通胀数据可以发布。白宫指责，由于民主党导致政府关门，调查人员无法前往实地开展工作，这导致政府无法获取关键数据。其经济影响可能会极其严重。Rapid Response 47 (@RapidResponse47):🚨 BREAKING: The White House has learned there will likely NOT be an inflation release next month for the first time in history.Due to the Democrat Shutdown, surveyors cannot deploy to the field — depriving us of critical data.The economic consequences could be devastating. ...

Core Insights - The core inflation rate in the U.S. for September rose less than expected, indicating a potential for the Federal Reserve to continue lowering interest rates next week [1] - The core Consumer Price Index (CPI) increased by 0.2% month-over-month, marking the slowest growth in three months, and rose by 3% year-over-year [1] - The lower-than-expected data may encourage policymakers to consider another rate cut in December, especially in light of the ongoing government shutdown and the inability to release other official data [1]