1月8日，金属市场热门话题被#镍价暴涨后突发回调占据，据长江有色金属网获悉，长江现货1#镍均价 单日下跌1750元至150050元/吨，伦敦金属交易所（LME）镍价更是单日重挫4.21%，创下近10个月以来 的最大跌幅。短短数周内，镍价演绎了一轮从疯狂上涨到急速回调的"过山车"行情，其背后是印尼控产 政策、市场预期与基本面现实之间的激烈博弈。 政策预期点燃行情，基本面压力促回调 这一轮镍价上涨行情启动于2025年末，核心驱动力来自"政策预期"而非基本面实质性改善。印尼大幅削 减镍矿配额，从3.79亿吨缩减至2.5亿吨，降幅达34%，加之Vale Indonesia因审批问题暂停部分采矿作 业，共同点燃了市场对供应收紧的强烈预期。在三周时间内，镍价累计上涨超过3.6万元，涨幅突破 30%。然而，当市场情绪逐渐平复，"弱现实"开始显现。LME镍库存近期增加2万吨，总量升至27.56万 吨的阶段性高位。需求端同样表现疲软：新能源电池领域的用镍需求增速不及预期，不足8%；不锈钢 采购受房地产复苏缓慢影响持续低迷。现货市场"有价无市"的格局，难以支撑此前过度乐观的估值。 多重利空叠加，高库存成"压舱石" 本次镍价回调是 ...

Report Industry Investment Rating No specific industry investment ratings were provided in the report. Core Viewpoints of the Report - A-share market is expected to continue its upward trend in the short term and may rise further in 2026 compared to 2025, supported by macro policies, inflation, capital market reforms, and the role of Central Huijin [1]. - The bond market is favored by asset shortages and weak economic conditions, but the central bank has recently warned of interest rate risks [1]. - Metal prices are influenced by factors such as supply disruptions, macro sentiment, and cost changes. Some metals are expected to have upward trends, while others may experience volatility or are subject to supply concerns [1]. - Energy and chemical product prices are affected by factors such as geopolitical conflicts, supply and demand, and cost support. Some products are expected to have upward trends, while others may experience volatility [1]. - Agricultural product prices are influenced by factors such as seasonal changes, policy support, and supply and demand. Some products are expected to have upward trends, while others may experience volatility [1]. Summary by Category A-shares - A-share market has continuous trading volume increase. Short-term, the index is expected to remain strong. In 2026, the index may continue to rise on the basis of 2025, supported by macro policies, inflation, capital market reforms, and Central Huijin [1]. Bonds - Asset shortages and weak economic conditions are favorable for bond futures, but the central bank has recently warned of interest rate risks. Attention should be paid to the Bank of Japan's interest rate decision [1]. Metals - Copper: Supply disruptions and improved macro sentiment have led to a rise in copper prices, and the upward trend is expected to continue [1]. - Aluminum: Domestic electrolytic aluminum has accumulated inventory, but macro sentiment is positive, and global aluminum ingot supply is expected to tighten, leading to a strong aluminum price [1]. - Alumina: Supply has significant release potential, putting pressure on prices. However, the current price is close to the cost line, and the price is expected to oscillate [1]. - Zinc: Fundamentals have improved, and the cost center has shifted upward. With positive macro sentiment, zinc prices have risen, but the upside space is limited due to fundamental pressure [1]. - Nickel: Supply concerns have led to a significant increase in nickel prices and an increase in positions. The short-term price may be strongly oscillating, but high risks and volatility are present at high price levels. Attention should be paid to Indonesian policies and macro sentiment [1]. Industrial and Energy Chemicals - Polycrystalline silicon: Northwest production has increased, while southwest production has decreased. December production schedules for polycrystalline silicon and organic silicon have declined [1]. - Carbonate lithium: It is the traditional peak season for new energy vehicles, with strong energy storage demand and increased supply from restarts. Prices have risen rapidly in the short term [1]. - Rebar and hot-rolled coil: Futures-spot arbitrage positions can be rolled for profit-taking. The price valuation is not high, and short-selling is not recommended [1]. - Iron ore: Near-term contracts are restricted by production cuts, but the commodity sentiment is positive, and there is still an upward opportunity for far-term contracts [1]. - Silicone and ferrosilicon: There is a combination of weak reality and strong expectations. In the short term, expectations dominate, and energy consumption control and anti-involution may disrupt supply [1]. - Soda ash: The market sentiment has improved, and the supply and demand are supportive. The price is low and expected to be strong in the short term [1]. - Coking coal and coke: If the "capacity reduction" expectation continues to ferment and there is pre-holiday restocking of spot goods, there may still be room for price increases, but the actual increase is difficult to judge, and volatility increases after a significant rise [1]. Agricultural Products - Palm oil: The December MPOB data is expected to be bearish, but the price is expected to reverse under themes such as seasonal production cuts, the B50 policy, and US biofuels. Short-term rebounds due to macro sentiment should be watched out for [1]. - Soybean oil: The fundamentals are strong, and it is recommended to be overweight in the oil market. Consider the spread between soybean oil and palm oil [1]. - Cotton: There is support but no driving force in the short term. Future attention should be paid to the central government's No. 1 document in the first quarter of next year, planting area intentions, weather during the planting period, and peak season demand [1]. - Sugar: There is a global surplus and increased domestic supply. The short side consensus is strong. If the price continues to fall, there is strong cost support, but there is a lack of continuous driving force in the short term [1]. - Corn: With the release of reserve and imported grains, the supply has increased. The spot price is expected to be firm in the short term, and the futures price will oscillate within a range [1]. - Pulp: The 05 contract is expected to oscillate between 5400 - 5700 yuan/ton due to the tug-of-war between "strong supply" and "weak demand" [1]. - Logs: The spot price has shown signs of bottoming out and rebounding, and the downward space for the futures price is limited. However, the January overseas quotation has slightly declined, and there is a lack of upward driving factors. The price is expected to oscillate between 760 - 790 yuan/m³ [1]. Energy and Chemicals - Crude oil: OPEC+ has suspended production increases until the end of 2026. The uncertainty of the Russia-Ukraine peace agreement and US sanctions on Venezuelan oil exports have an impact [1]. - Fuel oil: Follows the trend of crude oil in the short term, with no prominent supply-demand contradictions [1]. - Asphalt: The "14th Five-Year Plan" rush demand is likely to be disproven, and the supply of Ma Rui crude oil is sufficient. The profit margin is high [1]. - Natural rubber: The raw material cost provides strong support, the futures-spot price difference has rebounded significantly, and the midstream inventory has increased substantially [1]. - BR rubber: The upward momentum has slowed down, the spot price has led the recovery of the basis, and the processing profit has narrowed. There are positive factors for future domestic butadiene exports [1]. - PTA: The PX market has experienced a sharp rise, and the PTA market is expected to remain tight in 2026. Domestic PTA maintains high production, and the gasoline spread provides support for aromatics [1]. - Ethylene glycol: Two MEG plants in Taiwan, China, plan to shut down next month. The price has rebounded rapidly due to supply-side news, and the downstream demand is slightly better than expected [1]. - Styrene: The Asian market is stable, with suppliers reluctant to cut prices due to losses and buyers pressing for lower prices due to weak downstream demand. The market is in a weak balance, and the upward momentum depends on overseas markets [1]. - Urea: The export sentiment has eased, and the upside space is limited due to insufficient domestic demand. There is support from anti-involution and the cost side [1]. - PE: There is a risk of rising crude oil prices due to geopolitical conflicts. The supply pressure is high, and the market expectation is weak due to planned production increases in 2026 [1]. - PP: The supply pressure is high, and the downstream improvement is less than expected. The cost is supported by high propylene monomer and crude oil prices [1]. - PVC: The global production is expected to be low in 2026, but the current supply pressure is rising. The demand is weak, and the implementation of differential electricity prices in the northwest may force the clearance of PVC production capacity [1]. - LPG: The January CP has risen unexpectedly, and the import cost provides strong support. Geopolitical conflicts have increased the risk premium. The inventory accumulation trend has slowed down, and the domestic port inventory is decreasing. The long-term demand for LPG is expected to increase [1]. Aviation - It is expected to peak in mid-January. Airlines are still cautious about trial resumptions [1].

期货日报记者在采访中了解到，玻璃、纯碱期价大幅上涨的主要原因是政策预期改善带来的估值修复，宏观与产业层面多重信号共振，市场风险偏好回 升。 宏观层面，本周召开的2026年央行工作会议释放利多信号，明确提出继续实施适度宽松的货币政策，把促进物价合理回升作为货币政策的重要考量。 中信建投（601066）期货能化高级分析师胡鹏认为，这一表述为宏观预期改善筑牢基础，会议强调加大逆周期和跨周期调节力度、保持流动性充裕，不仅 能为经济稳定增长营造良好的货币金融环境，也能带动大宗商品市场看多情绪回暖。 产业层面，"反内卷"政策持续推进。2025年12月，陕西省发展改革委发布差别电价政策，对铁合金、烧碱等7个限制类产能的电价每千瓦时加价0.1元，淘 汰类产能加价幅度更高，落后产能有望加速出清。与此同时，玻璃、纯碱产业结构调整持续深化，2025年沙河地区加快玻璃企业"煤改气"进程，湖北计划 在2026年8月底之前完成玻璃企业清洁能源改造，等等。上述举措进一步为期货价格反弹提供助力。 此外，成本端与产销端的变化也为玻璃、纯碱价格上涨提供了有力支撑。 玻璃方面，据国投期货高级分析师周小燕介绍，近期沙河及湖北地区产销态势转好，行业有 ...

新能源及有色金属日报 | 2026-01-06 有色板块集体走高，镍价维持反弹 镍品种 市场分析 2026-01-05日沪镍主力合约2602开于135000元/吨，收于134100元/吨，较前一交易日收盘变化0.57%，当日成交量为 366893（-774634）手，持仓量为134729（1934）手。 期货方面：昨日沪镍主力合约呈现高位震荡态势，反映出市场在供应收缩预期与需求淡季现实之间的博弈加剧。 当前价格反弹更多是资金情绪与政策预期博弈的结果，而非供需结构实质改善，投资者需警惕政策预期变化带来 的价格波动风险。 镍矿方面：Mysteel方面消息，镍矿市场交投氛围较为平静，市场镍矿资源有限，镍矿价格暂稳运行。菲律宾方面， 多待北部矿山新一轮招标，矿山多看涨预期。装船出货方面，降雨量增加，效率有一定迟滞。印尼方面，2026年1 月(一期)内贸基准价上涨0.05-0.08美元/湿吨，内贸升水方面，当前主流升水维持+25，升水区间多在+25-26。 现货方面：金川集团上海市场销售价格142200元/吨，较上一个交易日上涨1100元/吨。现货交投尚可，金川镍现货 偏紧，各品牌精炼镍现货升贴水稳中有跌。其中金川镍升 ...

铁矿今日盘面震荡。供应端，本期全球发运环比回落，略强于去年同期，符合李节性变化规律。澳洲巴西发运均出现下滑，但 同比来看仍然处于相对高位。国内到港量本期环比增加，考虑到前期海外发运偏强，预计短期将维持高位、港口库存保持累增 趋势。需求端，淡季终端需求偏弱、钢厂盈利情况近期好转，上周铁水产量环比增加。钢厂进口矿库存连续增加但仍然处于低 位，预计未来仍存在一定刚性补库需求。铁矿石短期盘面存在支撑，但进一步向上突破的动力不足。委内瑞拉局势对铁矿直接 供需影响非常有限,未来关注市场整体风向变化。我们预计铁矿走势震荡为主。 【焦炭】 日内价格震荡下行。焦炭仍有第四轮提降全面落地，焦化利润一般，日产咯微下降。焦炭库存小幅抬升，目前下游少量按需采 购,贸易商采购意愿一般。整体来看，碳元素供应充裕，下游铁水李节性低位，目前对原材料需求仍有韧性,钢材利润水平稍 有修复,对于原材料压价情绪仍浓。焦炭盘面升水,价格对贴水修复后仍面临一定基本面压力，不过市场对刺激政策有一定预 期,盘面资金博弈加剧。 【焦煤】 日内价格震荡下行。炼焦煤矿产量略微下降，年末部分煤矿国安全生产及年度生产任务已完成等因素，存在减产停产。现货竞 拍成交尚可， ...

数据显示，1月5日上海0#锌锭现货价格报价23970.00元/吨，相较于期货主力价格（23820.00元/吨）升 水150.0元/吨。 （1月5日）全国锌价格一览表 1月5日，上期所锌期货仓单41374吨，环比上个交易日减少1045吨。 国内炼厂减产延续，1月锌锭产出预计环比基本持平。消费淡季，但十五五开局，开门红预期下消费仍 存韧性。 分析观点： 瑞达期货（002961）研报：宏观面，《求是》杂志最新定调，政策预期上，政策力度要符合市场预期， 政策要一次性给足，不能采取添油战术，导致市场与政策陷入博弈状态。基本面，上游锌矿进口量下 滑，因内外比价继续走差，中国进口锌精矿亏损扩大；国内炼厂原料冬季储备已经启动，更倾向采购国 产锌精矿，不过炼厂采购国产矿竞争加大，国内外加工费均明显下跌，国内炼厂利润收缩，预计产量将 明显下降。不过近期伦锌价格回调，沪伦比值回升，出口窗口存在重新关闭可能。需求端，下游市场逐 步转向淡季，地产板块构成拖累，基建、家电板块也呈现走弱，而汽车等领域政策支持带来部分亮点。 下游市场以逢低按需采购为主，近期锌价震荡调整，成交平淡按需采购，现货升水偏高持稳，国内库存 延续下降；LME锌库存累 ...

期货交易咨询业务资格：证监许可【2011】1285号 请务必阅读正文后的免责声明。本报告的信息均来自已公开信息，关于信息的准确性与完整性，建议投资者谨慎判断，据此入市，风险自担。 华联期货钢矿周报 政策预期升温，钢矿震荡偏强 20251228 1 周度观点及策略 2 期现市场 3 需求端 4 库存端 5 供应端 6 原料端-铁矿石 请务必阅读正文后的免责声明。本报告的信息均来自已公开信息，关于信息的准确性与完整性，建议投资者谨慎判断，据此入市，风险自担。 请务必阅读正文后的免责声明。本报告的信息均来自已公开信息，关于信息的准确性与完整性，建议投资者谨慎判断，据此入市，风险自担。 周度观点及策略 孙伟涛 0769-22110802 从业资格号：F0276620 交易咨询号：Z0014688 审核人：黄忠夏，从业资格号：F0285615,交易咨询号：Z0010771 螺纹钢观点 请务必阅读正文后的免责声明。本报告的信息均来自已公开信息，关于信息的准确性与完整性，建议投资者谨慎判断，据此入市，风险自担。 u 库存：钢联五大品种库存延续去库。分品种看，螺纹钢库存继续减少，其中钢厂库存小幅增加，社会库存继 续下降；热卷 ...

热点栏目 自选股 数据中心 行情中心 资金流向 模拟交易 客户端 周五，国家发改委发表《大力推动传统产业优化提升》。文章指出，对氧化铝、铜冶炼等强资源约束型 产业，关键在于强化管理、优化布局。完善重大项目论证机制，推动地方论证前主动对接国家产业调控 要求，防止盲目投资和无序建设。在政策预期提振下，今日铜价再度大涨，日内最大涨幅超4%，再次 刷新年内高点。 基本面来看，库存方面，SMM周四统计国内精炼铜社会库存较周一增加2.52万吨至19.36万吨。需求方 面，铜价再度走高，下游企业采购转为谨慎，成交以刚需为主。美联储流动性呵护以及明年全球经济增 速修复预期，继续推动宏观维系偏暖氛围，宽松叙事结构下铜保持偏强走势。因此，低库存与需求韧性 仍构成下方支撑，但价格高位或抑制部分实货买盘，且临近年关，下游需求或进入淡季叙事，国内或逐 步进入累库阶段。短线关注贵金属过热情绪及大幅波动风险是否外延至有色市场，但策略上仍建议维持 逢低布局思路，不宜过度追高。 资料来源：Wind、光大期货研究所 撰稿：史玥明 从业资格：F03097365 交易咨询资格：Z0017563 免责声明：本报告的信息均来源于公开资料，我公司对这些信 ...

不过，螺纹钢基本面尚未出现实质性改善，整体延续供需双弱格局。临近年末，建筑钢厂生产意愿趋 弱，螺纹钢产量持续回落，最新周产量为181.68万吨，稳居近年来同期低位，较去年同期下降20.27%。 因此，低供应格局虽对钢价形成支撑，但螺纹钢产量仍存回升预期，利多效应正逐步弱化。 具体来看，一方面，短流程钢厂利润改善显著。据钢联统计，77家建材独立电弧炉钢厂中，亏损企业占 比仅14.05%。即期成本核算下，部分地区平电生产已实现盈利。利润改善叠加厂库压力不大，短流程 钢厂生产积极性提升，有望贡献供应增量。另一方面，前期制约螺纹钢供应释放的核心因素——产能指 标限制，将在新年后消退，这为螺纹钢产量恢复创造了条件。 需求持续低位运行。最新周度表观需求为208.64万吨，环比虽增加5.55万吨，但仍处于近年来同期最低 水平，较去年同期下降7.42%；高频每日成交、水泥出库量等需求指标亦处于近5年同期低位，进一步 印证建筑相关需求表现疲软。此外，下游行业景气度未见好转，预计螺纹钢需求仍将呈现季节性走弱趋 势，若后续供应如期回升，产业矛盾或再度加剧。 成本支撑力度趋弱 转自：期货日报 12月以来，螺纹钢期现价格呈现低位震荡态 ...

Group 1: Energy and Metals Crude Oil - Geopolitical conflicts such as US tanker seizures, Russian port attacks, and potential supply cuts in Kazakhstan have raised concerns about supply disruptions, but the fundamental supply is still loose, and geopolitical factors may trigger short - term rebounds [2] Precious Metals - The Fed's easing prospects and geopolitical risks have supported the strength of precious metals, but short - term volatility may increase after the Christmas holiday [3] Copper - Domestic spot supply - demand gives more downward pressure on copper prices, but raw material shortages may be transmitted to refined copper, and it is recommended to hold long positions with an adjusted support level and set a stop - profit [4] Aluminum - The fundamentals of the aluminum market have limited contradictions. With the approach of the Christmas holiday, funds are leaving. It is recommended that long positions be held against the 40 - day moving average [5] Cast Aluminum Alloy - The spot price of ADC12 has been raised. When the spread between cast aluminum alloy and Shanghai aluminum expands to over 1,000 yuan, pay attention to the opportunity to shrink the spread [6] Alumina - Alumina has an oversupply situation, and costs may decline. It will be weak until large - scale production cuts occur [7] Zinc - External inventory increases have put short - term pressure on zinc prices. It is expected to fluctuate in the range of 22,800 - 23,800 yuan/ton [8] Lead - Lead is in a low - level consolidation pattern. Pay attention to the resistance at 17,500 yuan/ton [9] Nickel and Stainless Steel - The nickel market is currently dominated by policy sentiment. It is recommended to wait and see for the time being [10] Tin - In the first quarter of 2026, tin supply is expected to turn to recovery, while consumption in traditional fields is weak. It is recommended to pay attention to short - position reduction and use put options [11] Lithium Carbonate - The price of lithium carbonate has broken through 120,000 yuan. The overall fundamentals are strong, and the short side is under pressure [12] Industrial Silicon - The market is mainly driven by the expectation of production cuts at the end of the month, and it is expected to show a strong and volatile trend in the short term [13] Polysilicon - The industry has strong expectations but weak reality. After rule adjustments, the short - term market is expected to fluctuate and decline [14] Group 2: Steel and Related Products Rebar and Hot - Rolled Coil - The demand for rebar has recovered slightly, while the supply and demand of hot - rolled coils have both declined. The overall market is expected to fluctuate slightly stronger in the short term [15] Iron Ore - The supply of iron ore is strong, and the demand is at a low level. The short - term market is expected to fluctuate [16] Coke - The third round of price cuts has been fully implemented. The price is expected to fluctuate [17] Coking Coal - Some coal mines have reduced or stopped production. The price is expected to fluctuate after repairing the discount [18] Manganese Silicon - The spot price of manganese ore has increased. It is recommended to try long positions at low prices [19] Silicon Iron - The supply of silicon iron has decreased significantly. It is recommended to try long positions at low prices [20] Group 3: Shipping Container Shipping Index (European Line) - The market is in a game between "strong expectations" and "weak reality". The near - month contract is expected to continue to fluctuate around the spot price [21] Group 4: Fuel and Chemicals Fuel Oil and Low - Sulfur Fuel Oil - The demand for fuel oil has not been significantly boosted. High - sulfur fuel oil is in a game between geopolitical support and supply surplus, while low - sulfur fuel oil is expected to remain weak [22] Asphalt - The supply - demand of asphalt is marginally loose. Geopolitical factors may bring short - term rebounds, but it will eventually return to a price - pressured situation [23] Urea - The supply - demand of urea has improved marginally, and the market is running strongly [24] Methanol - The port inventory has increased significantly. The short - term market may fluctuate weakly in the range, while there is an upward drive in the long - term [25] Pure Benzene - The port inventory of pure benzene has increased. Consider long - position in the month - spread in the medium - term [26] Styrene - The cost support of styrene is insufficient, and the supply pressure is difficult to reverse [27] Polypropylene, Plastic, and Propylene - The prices of polypropylene and plastic have declined, and the market is under pressure [28] PVC and Caustic Soda - PVC may run at a low level, and the upward range of caustic soda is expected to be limited [29] PX and PTA - The PX market has a strong expectation, and it is recommended to maintain a long - position idea in the medium - term [30] Ethylene Glycol - The short - term pressure of ethylene glycol has eased, but it is still under long - term pressure [31] Short - Fiber and Bottle Chips - The long - term supply - demand of short - fiber is relatively good, while bottle chips are mainly driven by cost [32] Group 5: Building Materials Glass - The industry inventory has increased, and it is recommended to wait and see in the short term [33] 20 - Rubber, Natural Rubber, and Butadiene Rubber - The demand has weakened, and it is recommended to take a bullish strategy [34] Soda Ash - Soda ash is facing long - term supply - demand surplus pressure. It is recommended to short on rebounds and consider a spread strategy [35] Group 6: Agricultural Products Soybeans and Soybean Meal - The trading logic focuses on US soybean exports and South American harvest expectations. Soybean meal prices are expected to follow the fluctuations of US soybeans [36] Soybean Oil and Palm Oil - Both soybean oil and palm oil have continued to rebound. Pay attention to the macro - atmosphere [37] Rapeseed and Rapeseed Oil - The mid - term strategy for rapeseed is to short on rebounds, and the short - term strategy is to wait and see [38] Soybean No.1 - The price of domestic soybeans is oscillating strongly. Pay attention to the auction results [39] Corn - The price of corn is expected to fluctuate weakly in the short term. Pay attention to the selling progress in the Northeast and auctions [40] Live Pigs - The short - term price of live pigs has rebounded slightly, but the main contract is expected to be weak in the medium - term [41] Eggs - The egg market has turned optimistic in the long - term, but beware of rapid price increases [42] Cotton - The domestic cotton market is oscillating strongly. It is recommended for the industry to consider hedging and buy at low prices [43] Sugar - The international sugar market has sufficient supply, and the domestic market focuses on the new - season production [44] Apples - The apple market is bearish, and it is recommended to maintain a short - position idea [45] Wood - The wood price is at a low level. The low inventory provides some support, and it is recommended to wait and see [46] Pulp - The pulp market is oscillating. It is recommended to wait and see or conduct short - term operations [47] Group 7: Financial Products Stock Index - The A - share market has risen, and the stock index futures are affected by the trends of the US dollar and precious metals. Track geopolitical and domestic policy developments [48] Treasury Bonds - In the context of increasing counter - cyclical adjustment policies, the long - term interest rate has risen significantly, and the yield curve may continue to steepen [49]