Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided Core Viewpoints of the Report - The bond market has been oscillating at the bottom, with weak repair momentum. In the short term, institutional behavior, expectations of incremental policies, and changes in the capital market are the main driving factors. The "supply - strong, demand - weak" pattern may continue in August economic data, and the bond market is unlikely to trend downward significantly, with yields expected to remain in a high - level oscillation pattern. It is recommended to wait and see on a single - side basis and focus on term spread trading opportunities brought by the steepening of the yield curve [97][98] Summary by Directory 1. Market Review - **Performance of Treasury Futures Contracts**: The 30 - year TL2512 contract fell 0.41%, the 10 - year T2512 contract rose 0.12%, the 5 - year TF2512 contract rose 0.07%, and the 2 - year TS2512 contract fell 0.02%. The trading volumes of TS, TF, and T contracts increased, while that of the TL contract decreased. The open interests of all TS, TF, T, and TL contracts increased [13][17][23][31] - **Performance of Deliverable Bonds**: The prices of some deliverable bonds changed, such as the 30 - year 210005 IB falling 0.14 and the 10 - year 220017 IB rising 0.05 [13] 2. News Review and Analysis - **Domestic News**: In August, the added value of industrial enterprises above designated size increased by 5.2% year - on - year, social consumer goods retail sales reached 39668 billion yuan, a year - on - year increase of 3.4%, and fixed - asset investment (excluding rural households) decreased by 0.20% month - on - month. The urban surveyed unemployment rate was 5.3%. The Sino - US economic and trade leaders held talks and reached a basic framework consensus on some issues [34] - **Overseas News**: US retail sales in August were 732.01 billion US dollars, a month - on - month increase of 0.6%. The initial jobless claims were 231,000, a significant drop. The Fed cut the federal funds rate target range by 25 basis points to 4% - 4.25% [10][35][36] 3. Chart Analysis - **Spread Changes** - **Yield Spreads**: The spread between 10 - year and 5 - year bonds widened slightly, while the spread between 10 - year and 1 - year bonds narrowed slightly. The spreads between 2 - year and 5 - year, 5 - year and 10 - year contract main contracts widened slightly. The 10 - year and 30 - year contract inter - period spreads widened significantly, the 5 - year contract inter - period spread narrowed, and the 2 - year contract inter - period spread widened [44][48][52] - **Treasury Futures Main Position Changes**: The net short positions of the top 20 positions in the T contract increased significantly [64] - **Interest Rate Changes** - **Shibor and Treasury Yields**: Overnight, 1 - week, 2 - week, and 1 - month Shibor rates all increased. The yields of treasury bonds due in 1 - 7 years changed between - 1 and 2 basis points, and the yields of 10 - year and 30 - year bonds rose by about 0.4 and 1 basis points to 1.80% and 2.10% respectively [68] - **Sino - US Treasury Yield Spreads**: The spreads between 10 - year and 30 - year Sino - US treasury bonds widened slightly [73] - **Central Bank Open - Market Operations**: The central bank conducted 1826.8 billion yuan in reverse repurchases and 150 billion yuan in treasury cash deposits, with 1264.5 billion yuan in reverse repurchases and 120 billion yuan in treasury cash deposits maturing, resulting in a net injection of 592.3 billion yuan. The weighted average DR007 rate rebounded to around 1.50% [77] - **Bond Issuance and Maturity**: This week, bonds worth 1708.793 billion yuan were issued, with a total repayment of 1190.265 billion yuan, and a net financing of 518.528 billion yuan [81] - **Market Sentiment** - **USD/CNY Exchange Rate**: The central parity rate of the US dollar against the RMB was 7.1128, with a cumulative depreciation of 109 basis points this week. The spread between the offshore and on - shore RMB weakened [86] - **US Treasury Yields and VIX Index**: The yield of 10 - year US Treasury bonds oscillated upward, and the VIX index increased [91] - **A - Share Risk Premium**: The yield of 10 - year treasury bonds decreased, and the A - share risk premium increased slightly [94] 4. Market Outlook and Strategy - **Domestic Fundamentals**: In August, industrial growth, social retail, and export growth slowed down, fixed - asset investment continued to shrink, and the unemployment rate rose seasonally. Social financing growth declined slightly, and credit growth was weak. The economic recovery has slowed down since July, and the manufacturing PMI is still in the contraction range. Supply - demand contradictions persist, and macro - policies need to boost domestic demand [97] - **Overseas Situation**: The number of initial jobless claims in the US decreased significantly, but overall employment growth slowed down. The Fed cut interest rates by 25 basis points, and the market's expectation of a rate cut in October increased [97] - **Bond Market Outlook and Strategy**: The bond market has been oscillating at the bottom, with weak repair momentum. The "supply - strong, demand - weak" pattern may continue, and the bond market is unlikely to trend downward significantly. It is recommended to wait and see on a single - side basis and focus on term spread trading opportunities [98]

Investment Rating - The report indicates a "Buy" rating for various companies within the financial sector, suggesting a positive outlook for their future performance [16]. Core Insights - The new RMB loans in August amounted to 590 billion, aligning with market expectations but showing a year-on-year decrease of 310 billion [1][2]. - The total social financing (社融) for August was 2.57 trillion, also meeting market expectations, but down 463 billion year-on-year, primarily due to a decrease in new RMB loans and government bonds [1][2]. - M1 growth rate was reported at 6.0%, while M2 growth remained stable at 8.8%, indicating a slight recovery in the monetary supply [1][4][6]. - Non-bank financial institutions saw a significant increase in deposits, with a total of 2.06 trillion in new RMB deposits, although this was a decrease of 1.6 trillion year-on-year [1][2]. Summary by Sections New RMB Loans - August new RMB loans were 590 billion, down 310 billion year-on-year, with corporate loans performing relatively better [1][2]. - Short-term loans for enterprises increased by 700 billion, while medium to long-term loans decreased by 200 billion [2]. Social Financing - New social financing for August was 2.57 trillion, down 463 billion year-on-year, with government bonds being a major source despite a decrease [1][2]. Monetary Supply - M1 growth rate was 6.0%, reflecting a recovery influenced by a low base, while M2 growth rate remained at 8.8% [1][4][6]. Deposits - New RMB deposits totaled 2.06 trillion, with significant contributions from non-bank financial institutions, although overall deposits showed a year-on-year decrease [1][2].

Metal Market - As of the midday close, domestic base metals showed positive performance with Shanghai aluminum up 0.48%, copper up 0.59%, zinc up 0.36%, lead up 0.24%, while nickel fell 0.17% and tin rose 0.56% [1] - In the futures market, casting aluminum main contract rose 0.47%, alumina main contract rose 0.41%, lithium carbonate main contract rose 0.29%, and industrial silicon main contract continued its previous day's upward trend with a rise of 1.64% [1] - The black metal sector experienced a general decline, with iron ore down 1.18%, rebar down 0.71%, and stainless steel down 0.39% [1] Foreign Metal Market - As of 11:39, LME metals showed mixed results with copper down 0.16%, nickel down 0.3%, and tin down 0.31%, while aluminum rose 0.13% [1] - In precious metals, COMEX gold fell 0.27% and silver fell 0.06%, while Shanghai gold main contract fell 0.26% and Shanghai silver main contract rose 0.2% [1] Futures Market - The Euro line shipping main contract fell 4.08%, closing at 1219 points [2][3] - Various futures showed specific price movements, such as industrial silicon main contract up 1.64% and copper main contract up 0.59% [3] Spot Market and Fundamentals - In the copper market, Guangdong 1 electrolytic copper spot price showed a premium of 0-60 CNY/ton against the current month contract, with an average premium of 30 CNY/ton, down 10 CNY/ton from the previous trading day [4] - The People's Bank of China conducted a net injection of 794 billion CNY through reverse repos, maintaining the operation rate at 1.40% [4] Oil Market - As of 11:39, both WTI and Brent crude oil futures showed slight declines, with WTI down 0.11% and Brent down 0.1% [7] - The EIA reported an increase in U.S. crude oil inventories by 3.9 million barrels, contrary to analyst expectations of a decrease [7]

Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided in the given text. Core Viewpoints - In July, the social financing scale showed a seasonal decline after the cross - quarter period, with an increment of 1.16 trillion yuan, an increase of 38.93 billion yuan year - on - year but a significant drop from the previous month. The net financing of government bonds was 1.24 trillion yuan, an increase of 55.9 billion yuan year - on - year, strongly supporting the social financing. Credit financing shrank significantly, with a decrease of 426.3 billion yuan in the month and an additional decrease of 345.5 billion yuan year - on - year. Off - balance - sheet non - standard financing decreased by 166.6 billion yuan, and direct financing was not enough to make up for the traditional financing gap [1][7]. - In July, M1 growth continued to rise, with a year - on - year increase of 5.6%, 1.0 percentage point faster than the previous month, reaching a 29 - month high, mainly due to the low - base effect, improvement of enterprise cash flow, and the conversion of deposits to investments. M2 increased by 8.8% year - on - year, with a 0.5 - percentage - point increase from the previous month. Although the M2 - M1 gap narrowed, the (M2 - M1)/M1 indicator was still at a high level [1][12]. - The new RMB loans were unexpectedly - 5 billion yuan, an additional decrease of 31 billion yuan year - on - year, the first single - month negative growth since August 2005, indicating weak real - economy financing demand. The enterprise - side financing structure deteriorated slightly, and the household - side long - and short - term loans both shrank. On August 13, the implementation plan for the fiscal discount policy for personal consumption loans was released to relieve the pressure on the household side [2][17]. Summaries According to Related Catalogs 7 - Month Social Financing Seasonal Decline - Social financing scale: In July, the social financing scale increment was 1.16 trillion yuan, an increase of 38.93 billion yuan year - on - year but a significant decline from the previous month. It mainly relied on the net financing of government bonds (1.24 trillion yuan, an increase of 55.9 billion yuan year - on - year). Credit financing decreased by 426.3 billion yuan in the month, an additional decrease of 345.5 billion yuan year - on - year. Off - balance - sheet non - standard financing decreased by 166.6 billion yuan, and direct financing was not sufficient to fill the traditional financing gap [1][7]. - M1 and M2: M1 growth continued to rise, with a year - on - year increase of 5.6%, 1.0 percentage point faster than the previous month, reaching a 29 - month high. M2 increased by 8.8% year - on - year, with a 0.5 - percentage - point increase from the previous month. The M2 - M1 gap narrowed to 3.2% (previous value 3.7%), but the (M2 - M1)/M1 indicator was still at a high level [1][12]. - New RMB loans: The new RMB loans were - 5 billion yuan, an additional decrease of 31 billion yuan year - on - year, the first single - month negative growth since August 2005. The enterprise - side financing structure deteriorated slightly, and the household - side long - and short - term loans both shrank. The government released a policy to relieve the pressure on the household side [2][17].

Core Insights - The central bank's financial data report for July 2025 indicates a significant increase in monetary supply and social financing, reflecting improved market confidence and economic activity [1] Monetary Supply - As of the end of July, M2 balance reached 329.94 trillion yuan, with a year-on-year growth of 8.8%, an increase of 0.5 percentage points from the previous month [1] - M1 balance stood at 111.06 trillion yuan, showing a year-on-year growth of 5.6%, up by 1 percentage point from last month [1] - M0 balance experienced a year-on-year growth of 11.8% [1] Social Financing - The cumulative increase in social financing for the first seven months of 2025 was 23.99 trillion yuan, which is 5.12 trillion yuan more than the same period last year [1] - In July, the social financing increment was 1.13 trillion yuan, exceeding last year's figure by 361.3 billion yuan [1] Loans and Deposits - During the first seven months, new RMB loans increased by 12.87 trillion yuan [1] - New RMB deposits rose by 18.44 trillion yuan [1] Efficiency of Fund Circulation - The difference in growth rates between M1 and M2 was 3.2 percentage points, significantly narrowing compared to the peak in September of the previous year, indicating improved fund circulation efficiency [1] - Experts suggest that the narrowing "scissors difference" between M1 and M2 reflects enhanced liquidity and market confidence, aligning with the trend of economic recovery [1]

Group 1 - The overall financial growth remains reasonable, supporting the real economy, with expectations for an increase in new social financing in July compared to the previous year [1][2] - Predictions for new RMB loans in July vary among experts, with estimates ranging from 2000 billion to 3500 billion RMB, indicating a potential increase in credit supply due to supportive monetary policies [1][2] - The central bank continues to inject liquidity to enhance banks' lending capabilities, while regulatory efforts are focused on accelerating the disbursement of loans for real estate projects [1][3] Group 2 - New social financing (社融) is expected to show significant year-on-year growth, with estimates around 1.46 trillion to 1.7 trillion RMB for July, driven primarily by government bond financing [2] - The net financing scale of government bonds is projected to be approximately 1.27 trillion RMB, reflecting a substantial year-on-year increase [2] - The central bank plans to maintain a moderately loose monetary policy, potentially implementing interest rate cuts and reserve requirement ratio reductions to further stimulate credit growth and support economic recovery [3]

Report Investment Rating - The zinc industry is rated as "Under Pressure" [1] Core View - Zinc is expected to run under pressure [1] Summary by Directory Fundamental Tracking - **Futures Prices**: The closing price of SHFE zinc main contract was 22,250 yuan/ton, down 0.58%; the closing price of LME zinc 3M electronic disk was 2,738 dollars/ton, down 1.40% [1] - **Trading Volume**: The trading volume of SHFE zinc main contract was 136,140 lots, an increase of 6,783 lots; the trading volume of LME zinc was 11,463 lots, a decrease of 1,997 lots [1] - **Open Interest**: The open interest of SHFE zinc main contract was 94,177 lots, a decrease of 13,455 lots; the open interest of LME zinc was 194,167 lots, an increase of 1,614 lots [1] - **Premium and Discount**: Shanghai 0 zinc premium was 30 yuan/ton, down 10 yuan/ton; LME CASH - 3M premium was -0.36 dollars/ton, down 5.04 dollars/ton [1] - **Inventory**: SHFE zinc futures inventory was 9,171 tons, an increase of 298 tons; LME zinc inventory was 113,400 tons, an increase of 8,150 tons [1] - **Related Products Prices**: The price of 1.0mm hot - dipped galvanized coil was 4,255 yuan/ton, an increase of 10 yuan/ton; the price of Shanghai Zamak - 5 zinc alloy was 23,355 yuan/ton, down 250 yuan/ton [1] News - China's social financing increment in June was 4.2 trillion yuan, new RMB loans were 2.24 trillion yuan, and the M2 - M1 gap narrowed [2] Trend Intensity - The zinc trend intensity is -1, indicating a bearish outlook [2]

Core Insights - In June, China added 12.92 trillion yuan in new renminbi loans, exceeding the expected 12.70 trillion yuan and up from the previous value of 10.68 trillion yuan [1] Summary by Category Economic Indicators - The new renminbi loans for June 2023 reached 12.92 trillion yuan, which is higher than the market expectation of 12.70 trillion yuan [1] - This figure also represents an increase from the previous month's value of 10.68 trillion yuan [1]

Group 1 - In May, the social financing scale increased by 2.29 trillion yuan, with a year-on-year increase of 224.7 billion yuan, and new RMB loans amounted to 620 billion yuan [1] - The broad money supply (M2) grew by 7.9% year-on-year, which is 0.9 percentage points higher than the same period last year, indicating a strong financial growth relative to nominal economic growth [1] - The narrow money supply (M1) increased by 2.3% year-on-year, reflecting a significant acceleration in the growth of "liquid money," which is expected to boost market confidence and economic activities [1] Group 2 - The net financing of government bonds accelerated in May, reaching 1.46 trillion yuan, while local governments issued 443.2 billion yuan in new special bonds, marking a new high for the year [2] - The net financing of corporate bonds exceeded 140 billion yuan in May, with a decline in the average yield of AAA-rated corporate bonds, encouraging companies to increase bond financing [2] - Despite a lower scale of new RMB loans compared to the same period last year, the RMB loan balance grew by 7.1% year-on-year, indicating stable loan growth [2] Group 3 - In May, nearly 530 billion yuan in new RMB loans were issued to the corporate sector, supported by a recent interest rate cut that boosted loan demand [3] - The residential sector saw an increase of nearly 54 billion yuan in new RMB loans, reflecting a recovery in the local real estate market [3] - The increased financing through government and corporate bonds is expected to substitute for bank loans, as local governments prefer using special bonds for project funding [3]

Investment Rating - The report provides a "Buy" rating for multiple companies within the financial sector, indicating an expectation of total returns exceeding the relevant industry over the next 12 months [14]. Core Insights - The report highlights that new RMB loans in May 2025 amounted to 620 billion, which is lower than market expectations of approximately 800 billion, reflecting a year-on-year decrease of 330 billion [1][2]. - Social financing (社融) in May 2025 increased by 2.29 trillion, surpassing market expectations of about 2.05 trillion, with a year-on-year increase of 227.1 billion, primarily driven by government and corporate bonds [1][2]. - M1 growth rate rebounded to 2.3% in May, a significant increase of 0.8 percentage points from the previous month, while M2 growth rate was 7.9%, slightly down by 0.1 percentage points [1][4][6]. - Total deposits in May 2025 increased by 2.18 trillion, a year-on-year increase of 500 billion, mainly from corporate and fiscal deposits [1][2]. Summary by Sections New RMB Loans - In May 2025, new RMB loans totaled 620 billion, with a year-on-year decrease of 330 billion, primarily due to a decline in corporate medium to long-term loans [1][2]. - Short-term loans for enterprises increased by 1,100 billion, showing a year-on-year increase of 2,300 billion [2]. Social Financing - New social financing reached 2.29 trillion in May 2025, with a year-on-year increase of 2,271 billion, mainly from government bonds and corporate bonds [1][2]. - Government bond issuance was 1.46 trillion, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 2,367 billion [1][2]. Monetary Aggregates - M1 growth rate was recorded at 2.3%, while M2 growth rate stood at 7.9%, indicating stable trends in monetary aggregates [1][4][6]. - The report anticipates that the growth rates of monetary aggregates and social financing will stabilize and potentially rebound in the third quarter of 2025 due to low base effects [1]. Deposits - New RMB deposits in May 2025 were 2.18 trillion, with a year-on-year increase of 5,000 billion, driven by corporate and fiscal deposits [1][2].