Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the articles highlights the ongoing market volatility and the increasing investment in cash flow assets, with the cash flow ETF (159399) experiencing a net inflow of over 270 million yuan for five consecutive days [1] - The current investment landscape in China is characterized by a transition between old and new economic drivers, with thriving sectors concentrated in technology (primarily AI), anti-involution industries (such as photovoltaic and lithium battery resources), and manufacturing exports [1] - There is an expectation of a lack of incremental fiscal policy in the near term, making it difficult for the market to shift towards low-consumption stocks in a "high-cut-low" trend [1] Group 2 - The cash flow ETF (159399) has consistently outperformed the CSI Dividend Index and the CSI 300 Index over the past nine years, indicating strong market performance [1] - The underlying index of the cash flow ETF focuses on large and mid-cap stocks, with a higher proportion of central state-owned enterprises compared to similar cash flow indices, and it has distributed dividends for nine consecutive months since its listing [1] - Investors are encouraged to consider dividend-paying options such as the dividend Hong Kong stock ETF (159331) and the dividend state-owned enterprise ETF (510720) alongside the cash flow ETF [1]

Market Overview - A-shares experienced fluctuations with the Shanghai Composite Index slightly up by 0.18% at 3946.74 points, while the Shenzhen Component remained flat and the ChiNext Index rose by 0.25% [1] - The trading volume in the Shanghai and Shenzhen markets was 1.73 trillion, a decrease of 200.2 billion from the previous trading day [1] - The overall market sentiment was weak, with over 4100 stocks declining, indicating a risk-averse environment [1] Investment Strategy - The current market pullback does not signify the end of the bull market, as excess liquidity continues to increase and optimistic sentiments remain, particularly in technology and export sectors [1][2] - Two key strategies are suggested: balancing between mainline and defensive stocks, and waiting for an uplift in income expectations [1][2] Sector Focus - The technology sector, particularly AI, and industries related to de-involution such as photovoltaic and lithium battery resources, remain key areas of focus [2] - Investors are encouraged to consider ETFs related to communication, chips, photovoltaic, and coal [2] Bond Market Insights - The bond market continues to show a consolidation trend, with the ten-year government bond ETF slightly down by 0.04% [3] - The central bank's cautious approach to monetary policy is leading to uncertainty in interest rates, with a focus on avoiding excessive liquidity [3] Lithium Market Dynamics - The lithium sector is experiencing a resurgence, with lithium carbonate futures rising by 5% to over 100,000 yuan per ton, driven by strong demand in downstream applications [4] - Investors are advised to monitor ETFs related to lithium mining and non-ferrous metals, as the sector is expected to benefit from ongoing demand [4] Gold Market Trends - Gold stocks ETF surged by 4.55%, with spot gold prices returning to 4100 USD per ounce, indicating a potential upward trend in the gold market [5][6] - The demand for gold as a safe-haven asset is increasing due to global uncertainties and the challenges facing the US dollar credit system [6] Future Outlook - The potential for gold prices to exceed 5000 USD per ounce next year is highlighted, contingent on ongoing macroeconomic conditions and central bank policies [6] - Investors are encouraged to explore gold ETFs that directly invest in physical gold and those that focus on gold mining stocks for greater volatility and potential returns [7]

Market Overview - A-shares experienced fluctuations with the Shanghai Composite Index slightly up by 0.18% to 3946.74 points, while the Shenzhen Component remained flat and the ChiNext Index rose by 0.25%. The STAR Market Index fell by 1.99% [1] - The total trading volume in the Shanghai and Shenzhen markets was 1.73 trillion yuan, a decrease of 200.2 billion yuan compared to the previous trading day [1] - The market showed a weak risk appetite, with over 4100 stocks declining, indicating a bearish sentiment [1] Investment Strategy - The current market pullback does not signify the end of a bull market, as excess liquidity continues to increase and the narrative of deposit migration persists. Long-term optimism remains for sectors like technology, anti-involution, and exports [1] - Two key investment strategies are proposed: balancing between mainline and defensive stocks, and waiting for an uplift in income expectations [1] Sector Focus - The transition from old to new economic drivers remains unchanged, with thriving sectors concentrated in technology (primarily AI), anti-involution (solar energy, lithium batteries), and manufacturing exports. Suggested ETFs include communication ETF (515880), chip ETF (512760), solar 50 ETF (159864), and coal ETF (515220) [2] - Given the significant prior gains in the technology sector, volatility is expected to increase, and investors are advised to consider dividend stocks such as dividend Hong Kong stocks (159331), dividend state-owned enterprises (510720), and cash flow stocks (159399) [2] Bond Market Analysis - The bond market continues to show a consolidation trend, with the ten-year government bond ETF (511260) slightly down by 0.04% and the thirty-year government bond futures down by 0.41% [3] - The central bank's "moderate easing" stance has led to uncertainty in interest rates, with a shift towards more precise and efficient regulation to avoid excessive liquidity [3] - The outlook for the bond market remains one of fluctuation, with the central bank restarting government bond trading to set a yield ceiling. However, external risks have eased, limiting the potential for significant declines in ten-year bond yields [3]

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints - The probability of "stocks and bonds sharing the same origin" is increasing, and they are likely to be in sync with the nominal growth rate [22][34]. - The focus of the "same origin" lies in price elasticity and the impact of price changes on the stock and bond markets, with policy and market attention centered on demand - led non - food prices [38][47]. - The "anti - involution" policy is an important arrangement in the future, with clear long - term and short - term goals and implementation paths [60][61]. Summary by Directory "Stock - Bond Disconnection" - After "9.24" in 2024, both stocks and bonds were bullish under the stimulus of loose monetary policy. In 2025, there was a slight "seesaw" pattern between stocks and bonds, with stocks strong and bonds weak. The median return of a certain scale of interest - rate bond public funds was around 0.2%, and the stock index rose nearly 800 points while the interest rate only increased by 20 points [7][8]. - The reason for the "stock - bond disconnection" is that they have different driving factors. In 2025, the bond market's main line was the revision and adjustment of expectations, including policy and economic expectations [9][11][12]. Increasing Probability of "Stock - Bond Homology" - A stock bull market requires both PE and EPS. Currently, it seems to be in a period where EPS needs to take over. When the stock market focuses on EPS, the probability of stock - bond homology increases [22]. - In the past year or so, the main factor determining the rise and fall of long - term interest rates has been the term premium. Currently, the term premium is at a reasonable level, and the long - term interest rate center's rise and fall will return to fundamental factors such as growth or prices [32]. - When the stock index returns to EPS and the bond market level matches the current policy and fundamentals, the probability of stock - bond homology increases, and they are homologous to the nominal growth rate [34]. Focus of "Homology" - In terms of the 2035 goals, the real growth has limited elasticity, while prices still have elasticity. Industry profit changes are closely related to prices, which are crucial for the stock market, and whether to get out of deflation is crucial for the bond market [38]. - Policy and the market pay more attention to demand - led prices, especially non - food prices or core CPI. When food and non - food prices move in the same direction, the situation is clear; when they move in opposite directions, in - depth structural analysis is needed [47]. - Under neutral assumptions, there is a chance to get out of deflation, but the risk lies in whether the month - on - month can reach the neutral level of recent years. The trend is determined, and it is unlikely to return to the 2024 situation [50][51]. - The "anti - involution" policy is very important. In the short term, the implementation path is still under observation, while in the long term, the goals and implementation paths are clear. International experiences from the US and Japan can be used for reference, and in the short term, administrative production control may be used to improve industry profit margins [60][61][66].

证券研究报告|宏观研究报告 [Table_Date] 2025 年 11 月 09 日 [Table_Title] 震荡期的破局之路 [Table_Title2] 类权益周报 [Table_Summary] ►回顾：A 股行情独树一帜 11 月 3-7 日，类权益行情震荡反弹。截至 2025 年 11 月 7 日， 万得全 A 收盘价为 6386.56，较 10 月 31 日上涨 0.63%；中证 转债同期上涨 0.86%，偏债型转债估值有所拉伸。 在全球权益市场走弱的情况下，A 股却迎来反弹，这与结构风 险的改善相关。与全球市场受 AI 估值泡沫担忧、美元走强、 美国政府停摆等宏观因素的影响不同，A 股行情掣肘是市场内 部的结构风险。11 月 5 日，成交集中度（前 5%成交额占全市 成交额比例）降至 40%附近，明显低于 45%。在牛市环境下， 结构风险稍有改善，市场则明显反弹，形成亮眼行情。 ►策略：保持震荡思维，等待增量信号 今年 9 月初至 11 月初的走势，与 2014 年 12 月至 2015 年 2 月 的行情极为相似。两者均为大涨之后的震荡期，且行情节奏都 是调整-反弹的循环。而在这段震荡之 ...

Core Insights - The company reported Q3 2025 revenue of 7.994 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 12.11% and a quarter-on-quarter increase of 11.53% [1] - The net profit attributable to shareholders for Q3 2025 was 672 million yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 13.65% [1] - The basic earnings per share (EPS) for Q3 2025 was 0.39 yuan [1] Revenue Breakdown - Revenue growth was driven by traditional core business segments and explosive growth in new automotive electronics [1] - Revenue contributions from various segments were as follows: interior functional components (31.32%), chassis systems (28.96%), shock absorbers (13.52%), automotive electronics (11.15%), and thermal management systems (6.77%) [1] - Year-on-year revenue changes for segments were: interior functional components (+18.34%), chassis systems (+4.04%), shock absorbers (-7.92%), automotive electronics (+52.83%), and thermal management systems (-7.36%) [1] Profitability Analysis - The gross profit margin for Q3 2025 was 18.64%, a decrease of 2.24 percentage points year-on-year [2] - Operating costs reached 6.503 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 15.27%, with costs growing faster than revenue by 3.16 percentage points [2] - The net profit margin for Q3 2025 was 8.42%, down 2.54 percentage points year-on-year [2] - High R&D expenses and increased management costs negatively impacted profitability [2] Emerging Business Development - The company is efficiently advancing its robotics projects, with electric drive actuators entering mass supply [3] - The company has successfully applied its thermal management technology from the automotive sector to the liquid cooling server industry, supplying major clients like Huawei, NVIDIA, and Meta [3] - The market recognition and coverage of the company's new business areas are continuously improving [3] Future Projections - Revenue projections for 2025-2027 are 30.348 billion yuan, 38.821 billion yuan, and 46.350 billion yuan, respectively [3] - Expected net profits for the same period are 3.094 billion yuan, 3.770 billion yuan, and 4.317 billion yuan, respectively [3] - EPS forecasts for 2025-2027 are 1.78 yuan, 2.17 yuan, and 2.48 yuan, respectively, with a "recommended" rating [3]

【申万固收|利率】新旧动能切换，债市依然承压——9月经济数据点评 原创 阅读全文 申万宏源固收研究 ...

Economic Overview - In Q3 2025, China's GDP growth rate declined to 4.8%, down 0.4 percentage points from Q2's 5.2%, but the cumulative growth for the first three quarters reached 5.2%, indicating that achieving the annual target of 5.0% is still feasible [1][2] - Fixed asset investment has been a major drag on growth, with a cumulative year-on-year decline of 0.5% in September 2025, marking the first negative growth since 2021 [1][10] Consumption Trends - Retail sales continued to decline in September 2025, with a cumulative year-on-year growth rate of 4.5%, down 0.1 percentage points from August [1][24] - The restaurant sector also saw a slowdown, with a cumulative year-on-year growth rate of 3.3%, down 0.3 percentage points from the previous month [1][28] Industrial Production - The cumulative year-on-year growth rate of industrial added value remained stable at 6.2% in September 2025, with significant differentiation between real estate-related and non-real estate-related industries [1][4] - Real estate-related industries such as glass, cement, and crude steel experienced accelerated production contraction, while non-real estate-related industries showed marginal growth [1][11] Inflation and Price Trends - Inflation remains weak, with the Consumer Price Index (CPI) rising slightly by 0.1 percentage points to 0.1% month-on-month in September, while the year-on-year decline narrowed to -0.3% [1][7] - Core CPI increased to 1.0% year-on-year, marking the fifth consecutive month of growth, driven by rising gold and service prices [1][7] Investment Landscape - Fixed asset investment showed a downward trend across real estate, infrastructure, and manufacturing sectors, with real estate investment down 13.9% year-on-year in September [1][10] - Infrastructure investment grew by 3.3% year-on-year, but this was a decline of 2.1 percentage points from the previous month [1][10] Debt Market Conditions - The debt market remains under pressure, with short-term fluctuations driven by U.S.-China trade news, but lacking strong long-term support [1][18] - The short end of the debt market shows higher certainty, while long-term and ultra-long-term bonds are experiencing increased volatility [1][18]

债 券 研 究 债 券 策 略 相关研究 证券分析师 证 券 研 究 报 告 黄伟平 A0230524110002 huangwp@swsresearch.com 栾强 A0230524110003 luanqiang@swsresearch.com 王哲一 A0230525100003 wangzy@swsresearch.com 联系人 王哲一 (8621)23297818× wangzy@swsresearch.com 本研究报告仅通过邮件提供给 中庚基金 使用。1 2025 年 10 月 21 日 新旧动能切换，债市依然承压 ——9 月经济数据点评 ⚫ 风险提示：货币政策和财政政策超预期，海外环境变化超预期 请务必仔细阅读正文之后的各项信息披露与声明 - 图 1：2025Q3 我国 GDP 当季同比增速相比二季度 回落 0.4pcts 至 4.8%，GDP 平减指数同比连续 10 个季度为负 资料来源：iFind，申万宏源研究 资料来源：iFind，申万宏源研究 图 3：2025 年 9 月工业增加值累计同比增速 6.2%持 平上月 资料来源：iFind，申万宏源研究 资料来源：iFind，申万宏源研 ...

Core Insights - A-share listed companies are showing strong performance forecasts for the first three quarters of 2025, with 44 out of 49 companies expecting an increase in net profit attributable to shareholders [1][2] - The semiconductor and new energy sectors are particularly strong, reflecting the trend of industrial transformation and upgrading in China [2][3] Group 1: Company Performance - Daoshengtianhe and Hengdian Dongci have released their earnings forecasts, with 44 companies expecting an increase in net profit and 5 companies expecting a decrease [1] - Yinglian Co. anticipates a net profit of 34.5 million to 37.5 million yuan, representing a year-on-year increase of 1531.13% to 1672.97% [1] - Dongfang Carbon is expected to report a net loss of 58 million to 60 million yuan, attributed to decreased market demand and significant price drops [1] Group 2: Sector Performance - Semiconductor companies like Changchuan Technology expect a net profit of 827 million to 877 million yuan, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 131.39% to 145.38% due to strong market demand [2] - The new energy sector is also performing well, with companies like Yuexiu Capital forecasting a net profit of 292.21 million to 309.40 million yuan, a growth of 70% to 80% [2] - North Rare Earth expects a net profit of 1.51 billion to 1.57 billion yuan, showing a year-on-year increase of 272.54% to 287.34% due to increased production and sales [3]