■苏向杲 近日，多家海内外大型投资机构相继发布2026年市场展望，"估值结构性修复""超配A股""价值回 归"等成为高频词汇。与此同时，从A股盘面看，多维数据显示市场活跃度回升，投资者信心持续修 复。 笔者认为，A股投资者信心的修复，本质上是思维从"博弈不确定性"向"拥抱确定性"的切换，其背 后主要有四大逻辑驱动。 其一，宏观经济治理体系不断健全，政策确定性夯实信心根基。 其三，无风险利率趋势性下行，权益资产迎来系统性重估。 第三重逻辑缘于资产比价关系的变化。随着国内无风险利率进入趋势性下行通道，权益资产，特别 是高股息和具备长期成长性的优质上市公司股权，其长期回报优势进一步凸显。比价关系的变化有望为 A股带来持续的资金活水。此外，近年来，我国机构投资者的壮大，推动整个权益资产定价体系发生系 统性重构——市场估值体系加速向更加注重长期现金流与内在价值的定价模型转变。这些积极因素进一 步强化了投资者信心。 其四，内外资共识深化，共筑市场价值新生态。 信心修复的第四重逻辑在于资金面生态的全面优化与共识凝聚。从外部看，在全球经济格局深度调 整的背景下，我国经济展现出较强的韧性与确定性，人民币资产的"稳定锚"属性日益 ...

笔者认为，A股投资者信心的修复，本质上是思维从"博弈不确定性"向"拥抱确定性"的切换，其背后主 要有四大逻辑驱动。 其一，宏观经济治理体系不断健全，政策确定性夯实信心根基。 当前，投资者信心修复的第一重逻辑，已从以往单点的政策调控，演进为系统性的制度保障与确定性。 这首先体现在宏观政策取向一致性的显著提升。去年以来，货币政策、财政政策与产业政策之间形成有 机衔接与动态配合，中国人民银行对流动性的精准调控、财政部的跨周期安排与中国证监会贯穿全程的 严监管，共同构建起一套逻辑自洽、目标清晰的政策组合，为市场注入稳定预期。 ■ 苏向杲 近日，多家海内外大型投资机构相继发布2026年市场展望，"估值结构性修复""超配A股""价值回归"等 成为高频词汇。与此同时，从A股盘面看，多维数据显示市场活跃度回升，投资者信心持续修复。 坚实的业绩是驱动投资者信心修复的第二重逻辑。当前，部分新质生产力相关行业已具备实实在在的业 绩支撑。数据显示，去年以来，半导体等新兴产业的营收、利润实现快速增长。 与此同时，中国制造的"出海"逻辑也在持续进化——从单纯的产品出口转向品牌、技术与管理模式的输 出。在全球供应链重构的背景下，我国龙头企 ...

当前，投资者信心修复的第一重逻辑，已从以往单点的政策调控，演进为系统性的制度保障与确定性。 这首先体现在宏观政策取向一致性的显著提升。去年以来，货币政策、财政政策与产业政策之间形成有 机衔接与动态配合，中国人民银行对流动性的精准调控、财政部的跨周期安排与中国证监会贯穿全程的 严监管，共同构建起一套逻辑自洽、目标清晰的政策组合，为市场注入稳定预期。 进一步看，这种确定性不仅源于政策之间的协调，更得益于资本市场基础性制度的持续完善。近年来， 退市机制实现常态化运行，监管部门对财务造假、内幕交易等行为保持"零容忍"，法治成为市场最坚实 的"护城河"，投资者保护机制更加完善。这都为投资者信心的长期稳定奠定了坚实基础。 ■苏向杲 近日，多家海内外大型投资机构相继发布2026年市场展望，"估值结构性修复""超配A股""价值回归"等 成为高频词汇。与此同时，从A股盘面看，多维数据显示市场活跃度回升，投资者信心持续修复。 笔者认为，A股投资者信心的修复，本质上是思维从"博弈不确定性"向"拥抱确定性"的切换，其背后主 要有四大逻辑驱动。 其一，宏观经济治理体系不断健全，政策确定性夯实信心根基。 其三，无风险利率趋势性下行，权益 ...

Group 1 - The "Fenghuo Cup" private equity selection event organized by Changcheng Securities has attracted over 600 private equity institutions and more than 1,600 products since its launch in October 2025, covering seven core strategies including stock, index enhancement, neutral, arbitrage, CTA, bond, and combination strategies [1] - The event aims to provide ample time for participating institutions to showcase their investment capabilities, with registration open until June 2026 [1] - The initiative is part of Changcheng Securities' effort to create a supportive ecosystem for quality private equity growth, offering diverse resources and platforms for trading execution, investment support, and financing solutions [1] Group 2 - In the macroeconomic context, the current economic cycle is perceived to be in a relatively early stage, with policies aimed at supply-side reform generating positive expectations, although actual progress remains to be verified [2] - The consensus among fund managers is that there are still reasonably valued targets in the market, such as the food and beverage index's price-to-earnings ratio and the Hang Seng Index's price-to-book ratio, both at historical lows [2] - Investment opportunities in the technology sector are highlighted, particularly in AI, with a focus on hardware that has reasonable valuations and is part of new major industry chains [2] Group 3 - Looking ahead to 2026, it is anticipated that more aggressive monetary and fiscal policies will be implemented, with potential further declines in risk-free interest rates and an increase in the value of credit bond allocations [3] - The stock market outlook favors relatively undervalued sectors such as banking, food and beverage, and consumer electronics, alongside technology leaders in AI chips, semiconductor equipment, and computing power [3] - The difficulty of stock selection and timing is expected to increase, making industry ETFs a more cost-effective option for investment [3]

and momment 【富街保險 201 III IS F HD 1 the 【发包行 P HITE 博网保障 HE SASSASS IT i : 201 F 7 15 1 i E THE at of review with Householder has been allers 上市式 " | | | | | | | the state 五年期大额存单已陆续下架，三年期大额存单也变成了稀缺品。部分国有大行的个别三年期大额存单门槛已经大幅提升至100万元，而且年利率仅有 1.55%，对大多数投资者来说，投资吸引力并不高。 在无风险利率持续下行的背后，银行正在积极调整经营策略，以应对低利率的环境。银行先后下架中长期存款产品，以降低资金成本的压力，也可能为净息 差持续下行而做好各项风险对冲的准备。 如果您是风险厌恶型的投资者，那么存银行可能是您的最佳选择。从保本的角度考虑，保守投资者可以从单一配置银行存款产品逐渐转变为多元化的投资， 例如增配储蓄国债、货币基金、国债逆回购、大额存单以及纯债基金等，以提升整体的投资收益率水平。 如果您可以承受一定的投资风险，而且有一笔三年以上不动用的闲置资金，那么您可以适度配置一 ...

Group 1 - A-shares experienced a collective decline on October 22, with the Shanghai Composite Index slightly down by 0.07% to 3913.76 points, the Shenzhen Component down by 0.62% to 12996.61 points, and the ChiNext Index down by 0.79% to 3059.32 points [1] - The total trading volume in the Shanghai, Shenzhen, and Beijing markets was 1690.5 billion yuan, a decrease of over 200 billion yuan compared to the previous day [1] - Nearly 3000 stocks were in the red, with sectors such as coal, non-ferrous metals, brokerage, and semiconductors declining, while the oil sector saw strong gains, with companies like Keli Co., Ltd. rising over 10% [1] Group 2 - Goldman Sachs released a report suggesting that despite potential pullbacks in Chinese stocks, investors should shift their mindset from "selling on highs" to "buying on lows," predicting a 30% increase in the MSCI China Index by the end of 2027 [2] - Dongguan Securities noted that the index is at a high point, with increased capital divergence, warning of potential short-term fluctuations due to profit-taking, but also highlighted that economic recovery in Q4 is expected to be supported by policies [2] - The report emphasized that the expectation of interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve could attract foreign capital inflows, enhancing the allocation value of A-shares and potentially driving domestic funds into the stock market [2]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint is that despite a gradual recovery in coal supply due to the cessation of rainfall, tight supply conditions persist due to stricter regulations and maintenance on the Daqin Railway, leading to expectations of strong coal prices as winter approaches and power plants increase procurement [1] - The coal sector is experiencing significant demand in the secondary market, with banks and coal stocks being favored by investors, resulting in coal stocks outperforming the broader market indices [1] - The coal ETF (515220), which tracks the CSI Coal Index (399998), has a high dividend yield exceeding 5.3% over the past 12 months, highlighting its investment value in a declining risk-free interest rate environment [1] Group 2 - Investors are advised to consider gradually accumulating positions in the coal ETF (515220) to capitalize on investment opportunities within the coal sector [1] - The coal sector's strong performance is attributed to increased cash flow and high dividends from quality coal stocks, making them attractive to investors [1]

Core Viewpoint - The China Securities Dividend ETF (515080) is set to distribute dividends for the third quarter, with a dividend of 0.15 yuan per ten shares, reflecting a distribution ratio of 0.95% [1][15]. Dividend Distribution - This marks the 14th dividend distribution since the ETF's inception, with a cumulative dividend amount of 3.65 yuan per ten shares [1][15]. - The annual dividend ratios for the past five years (2020-2024) were 4.53%, 4.14%, 4.19%, 4.78%, and 4.66% respectively [1][15]. Market Trends - Recent market conditions have seen a return of funds to high-dividend stocks, with the China Securities Dividend ETF experiencing a net subscription of 134 million yuan over four consecutive days [1]. - The 40-day return differential of the China Securities Dividend Index relative to the Wind All A Index was -12.25% as of September 12, indicating underperformance compared to the broader market [1][6]. Investment Insights - Long-term investment strategies are being bolstered by policies encouraging insurance companies to increase their equity holdings, potentially adding several hundred billion yuan to the A-share market annually [2][17]. - The current dividend yield of the China Securities Dividend Index is 4.86%, significantly higher than the 10-year government bond yield of 1.87%, enhancing the attractiveness of dividend-paying assets [9][12]. Performance Metrics - The latest price-to-earnings (PE) ratio for the China Securities Dividend Index is 8.18, with historical percentiles indicating a high valuation relative to the past five and ten years [12][19]. - The China Securities Dividend Index has shown varied performance over the last five years, with annual returns of 3.49% (2020), 13.37% (2021), -5.45% (2022), 0.89% (2023), and 12.31% (2024) [19].

Core Viewpoint - The phenomenon of "deposit migration" is fundamentally an asset price comparison effect following the reduction of deposit interest rates, which has led to increased acceptance of equity assets as funds are released from low-risk investments [1][8]. Group 1: Underlying Logic of Deposit Migration - The driving force behind deposit migration stems from the continuous decline in deposit interest rates, prompting residents to seek new asset opportunities as old asset returns diminish [2][8]. - There exists a clear seesaw effect between resident deposits (especially fixed deposits) and deposits in non-bank financial institutions, with the timing and final flow influenced by the macroeconomic environment and risk appetite [8]. Group 2: Impact on Stock and Bond Markets - The current round of deposit migration began in June 2023, initially flowing into money market funds and bond funds, with a noticeable increase in equity fund inflows only after the "924" policy [2][8]. - Theoretically, the decline in risk-free interest rates should lead to a simultaneous rise in both stock and bond markets, but due to transmission lags or liquidity traps, these markets may experience staggered movements, as seen in previous years [8]. Group 3: Unique Aspects of the Current Deposit Migration - Unlike previous instances, the current liquidity bull market does not aim to devalue the currency, as the central bank has not engaged in extensive monetary easing but rather focused on guiding capital back into the market [2][8]. - The recent increase in risk appetite is a result of significant macroeconomic changes, with the central bank's continuous guidance on exchange rate expectations reinforcing domestic risk appetite and restoring the seesaw effect between stocks and bonds [8].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Positive" outlook for the real estate industry [7] Core Viewpoints - Since Q2 of this year, real estate data has shown a continuous downward trend, yet there has been a notable hot sales performance for quality new properties in multiple regions. This contradiction is understood as a release of improvement-driven demand due to the introduction of high-efficiency residential projects, although the overall new housing market stabilization will require more time [2][4] - The recovery of the real estate industry and stock prices does not solely depend on the timing of policy implementations. The main drivers for the recovery are the decline in risk-free interest rates and the reduction in industry risk assessments. The real estate sector is currently in a bottoming phase, with the influence of the denominator (risk-free rates) surpassing that of the numerator (fundamentals), leading to a potential rebound in stock prices [3][4] Summary by Sections Market Performance - From January to July, the cumulative sales of commercial housing in China decreased by 6.5% in value and 4.0% in area year-on-year. In July alone, sales amounted to 532.5 billion, down 14.1% year-on-year, with a sales area of 57.09 million square meters, down 8.4% year-on-year [4] - The price of newly built commercial residential properties in first, second, and third-tier cities fell by 1.1%, 2.8%, and 4.2% year-on-year, respectively, with the decline narrowing compared to the previous month. Notably, Shanghai saw a price increase of 6.1% due to concentrated demand for high-end and improved housing [4] Policy Outlook - Given the weakening trend in the new housing market, there is significant room for future policy adjustments. Recent policy changes in Beijing and Shanghai include optimizing purchase restrictions and increasing support for housing funds, with expectations for Shenzhen to follow suit [5] - The year-on-year decline in new construction has been narrowing, attributed to improved cost-effectiveness of new land parcels, enhancing developers' profit outlook. From January to July, new construction area decreased by 19.4% year-on-year, but the decline has been narrowing for two consecutive months [5] Investment Recommendations - Recommended stocks to watch include China Merchants Shekou (001979, Buy), Poly Developments (600048, Buy), Beike-W (02423, Buy), Longfor Group (00960, Buy), and Gemdale Corporation (600383, Hold) [6]