日期 2025 年 10 月 10 日 021-60635732 yulanlan@ccb.ccbfutures.com 研究员：林贞磊 021-60635740 linzhenleil@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F3055047 研究员：王海峰 021-60635727 wanghaifeng@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F0230741 研究员：洪辰亮 021-60635572 hongchenliang@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F3076808 研究员：刘悠然 021-60635570 liuyouran@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F03094925 农产品研究团队 研究员：余兰兰 期货从业资格号：F0301101 新棉上市阶段，承压运行 行业 棉花 请阅读正文后的声明 ＃summary＃ 月度报告 观点摘要 请阅读正文后的声明 - 2 - ＃summary＃基本面：宏观方面，美联储 9 月 17 日降息 25 基点兑现市场 预期，中美元首通话经贸谈判继续推进。国内市场，8 月 CPI 同比下 ...

内外棉价共振走低，节前离场观望为宜 联系电话： 0531-81678626 公司地址：济南市市中区经七路86号证 券大厦15、16层 公司网址： www.ztqh.com 姓名：陈 乔 从业资格号：F0310227 交易咨询从业证书号 ：Z0015805 2 025 -9 -28 目录 请务必阅读正文之后的声明部分 数据来源：iFinD，中泰期货整理 请务必阅读正文之后的声明部分 供需因子情况 | | | | | | 国际市场 | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | | 上期 | 本期 | 环比 | 预期 | 思路 | 备注 | | 全球棉花产量 | （万吨） | 2542 32 . | 2565 42 . | 0 91% . | 上调 | 9月数据全球棉花 | USDA 9月供需报告 | | 全球棉花库存 | （万吨） | 1611 24 . | 1594 45 . | -1 04% . | 上调 | 产量预估较上月上 调 印度和中国棉 ， | USDA 9月供需报告 | | 全球棉花库存 | 消费比 | 62 65 . | 6 ...

态势。下游订单略有增加，纺企开机仍维持低位，关注传统消费旺季备货情况。操作上，建议短期暂且观 免责声明 | 项目类别 | 数据指标 最新 环比 数据指标 | | | 最新 | 环比 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 期货市场 | 郑棉主力合约收盘价(日,元/吨) | 13895 | 10 棉纱主力合约收盘价(日,元/吨) | 19950 | 50 | | | 棉花期货前20名净持仓(手) | -34949 | -4544 棉纱期货前20名净持仓(手) | -172 | 142 | | | 主力合约持仓量:棉花(日,手) | 492631 | -5664 主力合约持仓量:棉纱(日,手) | 20282 | -858 | | | 仓单数量:棉花(日,张) 中国棉花价格指数:CCIndex:3128B(日,元 | 4759 | -140 仓单数量:棉纱(日,张) | 89 | 0 | | 现货市场 | | 15300 | 51 中国纱线价格指数:纯棉普梳纱32支(日, | 20775 | 20 | | | /吨) 中国进口棉价格指数:FCIndexM:1%关税( | ...

Group 1 - In July, the profits of industrial enterprises above designated size decreased by 1.5% year-on-year, with the decline narrowing by 2.8 percentage points compared to June, marking two consecutive months of narrowing [1][6] - High-tech manufacturing profits shifted from a 0.9% decline in June to an 18.9% increase in July, significantly boosting the overall profit growth rate of industrial enterprises [1][6] - From August 1 to 24, the retail sales of new energy vehicles in the passenger car market reached 727,000 units, a year-on-year increase of 6% and a month-on-month increase of 7%, with a cumulative retail of 7.182 million units in 2023, up 27% year-on-year [1] Group 2 - The 10-year government bond yield rose to 1.7625%, with a net withdrawal of 236.1 billion yuan in the central bank's open market operations [2][9] - The manufacturing PMI for August in both the US and Eurozone rebounded above the critical point, indicating a potential for interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve in September [2][9] - The real estate market continues to adjust, with second-hand housing prices in first-tier cities declining month-on-month, prompting the government to enhance macro policy effectiveness [2][9] Group 3 - The palm oil production in Malaysia is expected to increase by 3.03% from the same period last month, while exports are projected to rise significantly [3][25] - The dual-fuel market is experiencing a mixed trend, with iron and coke prices showing fluctuations amid stable demand and increasing inventory levels [3][23] Group 4 - The upcoming Shanghai Cooperation Organization summit will take place from August 31 to September 1, 2025, in Tianjin, where member states will sign the "Tianjin Declaration" and approve the "10-Year Development Strategy of the SCO" [5]

Report Investment Rating - Not provided in the report Core Viewpoints - This week, Zhengzhou cotton rebounded close to the previous high after the adjustment in the USDA report. There is an optimistic outlook for the new - year cotton production. As the "Golden September and Silver October" peak season approaches, the downstream market shows marginal improvement, but the current recovery is limited. The USDA's August report tightened the global new - year cotton supply - demand expectations. The low inventory of old cotton supports near - month contracts, and the short - term cotton price center may rise with the marginal improvement in the downstream. Attention should be paid to downstream stocking [5]. Summary by Related Catalogs Domestic Market Supply - As of August 7, the national new cotton sales rate was 97.7%, 6.7 percentage points higher year - on - year and 8.4 percentage points higher than the average of the past four years [2]. Import - In June, China's cotton import volume was 30,000 tons, a decrease of 10,000 tons month - on - month and 130,000 tons year - on - year; the cotton yarn import volume was 110,000 tons, an increase of 10,000 tons month - on - month and the same year - on - year; the cotton cloth import volume was 4,289.55 tons, a decrease of 3.44% month - on - month and 24.37% year - on - year [2]. Demand - In July, the domestic textile and clothing retail sales were 96.1 billion yuan, a decrease of 24.63% month - on - month and an increase of 1.80% year - on - year; the textile and clothing export volume was 26.766 billion US dollars, a decrease of 2.01% month - on - month and a decrease of 0.06% year - on - year [2]. Inventory - As of the end of July, the national cotton industrial and commercial inventory was 3.0882 million tons, a decrease of 644,600 tons from the end of June. The commercial inventory was 2.1898 million tons, a decrease of 640,000 tons from the end of June, and the industrial inventory was 898,400 tons, a decrease of 4,600 tons from the end of June [2]. International Market US Supply - As of August 10, the cotton budding rate in the US was 93%, 2 percentage points behind year - on - year and 1 percentage point behind the five - year average; the boll - setting rate was 65%, 7 percentage points behind year - on - year and 6 percentage points behind the five - year average; the flocculation rate was 8%, 4 percentage points behind year - on - year and 2 percentage points behind the five - year average. The overall good - quality rate of cotton plants was 53%, a decrease of 2 percentage points month - on - month and an increase of 7 percentage points year - on - year [2][3]. US Demand - From August 1 to 7, the net signing of US 25/26 - year upland cotton was 54,885 tons, a significant increase month - on - month, with 41,345 tons shipped; the net signing of Pima cotton was 476 tons, with 2,722 tons shipped; the net signing of 26/27 - year upland cotton was 249 tons, and there was no signing of 26/27 - year Pima cotton [3]. Southeast Asian Supply - As of August 8, the new - year cotton sowing area in India reached 10.7 million hectares, a decrease of about 2.7% year - on - year [3]. Southeast Asian Demand - In July, Vietnam's textile and clothing export volume was 3.911 billion US dollars, an increase of 8.7% month - on - month and 5.3% year - on - year; in June, Bangladesh's clothing export volume was 2.788 billion US dollars, a decrease of 28.87% month - on - month and 6.31% year - on - year; in June, India's clothing export volume was 1.31 billion US dollars, a decrease of 13.30% month - on - month and an increase of 1.23% year - on - year; in June, Pakistan's textile and clothing export volume was 1.522 billion US dollars, a decrease of 0.60% month - on - month and an increase of 7.59% year - on - year [3]. Futures Market - Zhengzhou cotton 01 contract closed at 14,120 yuan, up 320 yuan with a 2.32% increase; Zhengzhou cotton 05 contract closed at 14,090 yuan, up 340 yuan with a 2.47% increase; Zhengzhou cotton 09 contract closed at 13,835 yuan, up 195 yuan with a 1.43% increase. The CC Index 3128B was 15,216 yuan, up 38 yuan with a 0.25% increase; the CC Index 2227B was 13,335 yuan, up 26 yuan with a 0.2% increase; the CC Index 2129B was 15,486 yuan, up 28 yuan with a 0.18% increase. The FC Index M was 13,576 yuan, up 156 yuan with a 1.16% increase; the FCY Index C32s was 21,255 yuan, up 68 yuan with a 0.32% increase. The cotton yarn futures price was 20,185 yuan, up 580 yuan with a 2.96% increase, and the spot price was 20,720 yuan, up 100 yuan with a 0.48% increase [22][26].

Report Industry Investment Ratings - **Macro Finance**: Index futures and treasury bonds are expected to fluctuate [1][6] - **Black Building Materials**: Rebar - temporary observation; Iron ore - fluctuate; Coking coal and coke - fluctuate [1][6] - **Non - ferrous Metals**: Copper - range trading or observation; Aluminum - buy on dips after a pullback; Nickel - observe or short on rallies; Tin - range trading; Gold - range trading; Silver - range trading [1][6] - **Energy Chemicals**: PVC - fluctuate; Soda ash - short 09 and long 05 arbitrage; Caustic soda - fluctuate; Styrene - fluctuate; Rubber - fluctuate; Urea - fluctuate; Methanol - fluctuate; Polyolefins - wide - range fluctuation [1][22] - **Cotton Textile Industry Chain**: Cotton and cotton yarn - fluctuate and adjust; Apples - fluctuate strongly; Jujubes - fluctuate strongly [1][39] - **Agricultural Livestock**: Hogs - short on rallies; Eggs - short on rallies; Corn - wide - range fluctuation; Soybean meal - range fluctuation; Oils - fluctuate strongly [1][42] Core Viewpoints - The market is influenced by multiple factors such as policies, supply - demand relationships, and international events. Index futures have a mid - term upward trend despite short - term fluctuations. Treasury bonds are affected by risk asset prices. Various commodities in different sectors show different trends based on their own supply - demand fundamentals and macro - environment [6][8][10] Summary by Directory Macro Finance - **Index Futures**: The strengthening of the index is due to positive policies, capital inflows, and event catalysts. Short - term may fluctuate at high points, but the mid - term trend is upward. Buying on dips is recommended [6] - **Treasury Bonds**: The downward space of bond yields is limited. Attention should be paid to the movement of risk asset prices, as a sharp rise in risk assets may lead to a break - out of the current yield range [6] Black Building Materials - **Rebar**: The price fluctuated upward on Monday. The supply - demand is relatively balanced in the off - season. The price is expected to remain volatile in the short term, and static valuation is neutral. Observation or short - term trading is recommended [8] - **Iron Ore**: The price was strong on Monday. Considering the possible macro - positive factors in the fourth quarter and the expected decline in iron - water demand, the iron ore market is expected to fluctuate strongly. It can be used as a long - leg in the short - position allocation of other black varieties [8] - **Coking Coal**: The market may face a game of weak supply and demand in the short term. Attention should be paid to coal mine复产 progress, steel - coke price increase, and import coal customs clearance [10] - **Coke**: The supply is tight, and the demand from steel mills is strong. The market is expected to continue to fluctuate in the short term. Key factors include raw material price fluctuations, price increase implementation, and steel mill inventory replenishment [10] Non - ferrous Metals - **Copper**: The price is supported at a high level due to positive domestic economic data, Fed rate - cut expectations, and low inventory. However, it is in the off - season, and the short - term upward driving force is insufficient. It is expected to continue to fluctuate in the range of 78000 - 79500 yuan/ton [13] - **Aluminum**: The price is expected to fluctuate at a high level. The supply of bauxite is affected by the rainy season, and the demand is in the off - season. Buying on dips in August is recommended [15] - **Nickel**: The long - term supply is excessive, and the consumption growth is limited. It is recommended to short moderately on rallies, with the main contract reference range of 118000 - 124000 yuan/ton [18] - **Tin**: The supply - demand gap of tin ore is improving. It is recommended to conduct range trading, with the reference range of the SHFE tin 09 contract being 25.5 - 27.5 million yuan/ton [19] - **Silver and Gold**: Affected by factors such as US tariff policies and employment data, the prices are expected to fluctuate. Buying on dips is recommended for gold, with the reference range of the SHFE gold 10 contract being 770 - 820 [20][21] Energy Chemicals - **PVC**: The supply is high, the demand is weak, and the export sustainability is questionable. It is expected to fluctuate in the short term, with the 09 contract focusing on the range of 4900 - 5100 [23] - **Caustic Soda**: The supply is abundant, and the demand has rigid support but the growth rate slows down. The 09 contract is expected to fluctuate in the range of 2400 - 2550, and going long on dips for the peak - season contract is recommended [25] - **Styrene**: The fundamental benefits are limited, and the macro - environment is warm. It is expected to fluctuate in the range of 7100 - 7400 [28] - **Rubber**: The cost support is strengthening, and the inventory is decreasing. It is expected to run strongly in the short term, with the reference range of 15200 - 15600 [30] - **Urea**: The supply is decreasing, the demand from compound fertilizer enterprises is increasing, and other industrial demands are stable. Range operation is recommended, with support at 1700 - 1730 and pressure at 1800 - 1830 [33] - **Methanol**: The supply increases slightly, the demand from methanol - to - olefins is stable, and the traditional demand is weak. The inventory is decreasing, and it is expected to fluctuate affected by the overall industrial product prices [34] - **Polyolefins**: In the off - season, the supply increases, the demand is weak, and the inventory accumulates. It is expected to fluctuate weakly, with the L2509 contract focusing on 7200 - 7500 and the PP2509 contract on 6900 - 7200 [35] - **Soda Ash**: The supply increases, the inventory accumulates, and the spot price may decline slightly. It is recommended to short 09 and long 05 for arbitrage [38] Cotton Textile Industry Chain - **Cotton and Cotton Yarn**: The global cotton production and consumption are expected to increase in the 2025/26 season, and the inventory will also increase. The downstream consumption is light, and the price is expected to fluctuate and adjust [39] - **Apples**: The early - maturing fruit price is weak, and the inventory fruit price is stable. Based on low inventory and growth factors, the price is expected to maintain a high - level fluctuation [40] - **Jujubes**: The market trading atmosphere is improving, and the price of high - quality products is strong. The price is expected to rise in the short term [40] Agricultural Livestock - **Hogs**: The short - term supply is strong, and the demand is weak. The price is expected to continue to bottom out. In the medium term, there may be a phased rebound, but the long - term supply pressure remains. Different contracts have different trends, and corresponding trading strategies are recommended [43] - **Eggs**: The current spot price has stopped rising and started to decline. Different contracts have different trading strategies, and attention should be paid to factors such as hen culling and cold - storage egg release [44] - **Corn**: The spot price is stable, and the 09 contract basis is low. It is recommended to be cautious in unilateral long - positions, and the price is expected to fluctuate in the range of 2250 - 2350 [46] - **Soybean Meal**: The short - term price increase is limited. Different contracts have different trading strategies, and spot enterprises are recommended to build long - positions [48] - **Oils**: Affected by factors such as the MPOB report and production - export data, the price is expected to fluctuate strongly. Caution is recommended when chasing the rise, and attention can be paid to the rapeseed oil 11 - 01 reverse - arbitrage strategy [50][54]

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content Group 2: Core Viewpoints of the Report - As of mid - July, the domestic cotton commercial inventory was 2.5424 million tons, with a month - on - month decrease of 580,000 tons and a decrease of 287,000 tons from the end of June. The decline rate slowed down, but the absolute value was at a low level. The new crop is growing well with an expected increase in production. The operating rates of downstream spinning mills and weaving mills continued to decline, accompanied by an increase in finished product inventories. It is expected to show a range - bound trend in the short term. Attention should be paid to downstream orders and cotton import policies [3] Group 3: Summary by Related Catalogs 1. Cotton Supply Situation - **Domestic Cotton**: As of mid - July, the domestic cotton commercial inventory was 2.5424 million tons, with a month - on - month decrease of 580,000 tons and a decrease of 287,000 tons from the end of June. The new crop growth is good with an expected increase in production [3] - **US Cotton**: As of August 3, in 15 major cotton - planting states in the US, the budding rate was 87%, 3 percentage points slower than last year and 2 percentage points slower than the five - year average; the boll - setting rate was 55%, 4 percentage points slower than last year and 3 percentage points slower than the five - year average; the flocculation rate was 5%, 2 percentage points slower than last year and 1 percentage point slower than the five - year average; the good - to - excellent rate was 55%, 10 percentage points higher than last year and 8 percentage points higher than the five - year average. Although the cotton - planting area decreased this year, the high good - to - excellent rate indicates a promising yield [4] 2. Downstream Market Conditions - **Operating Rate and Inventory**: As of this Wednesday, the operating rates of spinning mills and grey fabric mills were 49.3 and 47.7 respectively, slightly down from last week. The finished product inventories were 30 and 33.8 days respectively, with a week - on - week increase of 0.5 days and 0.1 days. The operating load indexes of spinning mills and fabric mills continued to be at the lowest in the past three years, and the finished product inventories continued to be at the highest in the past three years. Spinning mills' raw material inventories are at the highest level in the same period in recent years, while weaving mills' cotton yarn inventories are at the lowest level in the same period in recent years, indicating low downstream confidence [5] - **Export and Retail**: According to the USDA weekly export report, as of the week ending July 17, the weekly net signing of 2024/25 US upland cotton was - 7,400 tons, including 10,000 tons of cancelled contracts. The weekly signing of 2025/26 US upland cotton was 30,100 tons, a year - on - year decrease of 54%, including 9,700 tons from Vietnam and 3,700 tons from Pakistan [21] 3. Price and Basis Situation - **Futures and Spot Prices**: As of this Thursday, the 328 cotton spot price index was 15,191 yuan/ton, a week - on - week decrease of 134 yuan/ton; the closing price of the main Zhengzhou cotton futures contract was 13,670 yuan/ton, a week - on - week increase of 20 yuan/ton; the basis between them was 1,521 yuan/ton, a week - on - week narrowing of 154 yuan/ton. The C32S yarn price index was 20,620 yuan/ton, a week - on - week decrease of 60 yuan/ton; the closing price of the main Zhengzhou yarn futures contract was 19,705 yuan/ton, a week - on - week decrease of 65 yuan/ton; the basis between them was 915 yuan/ton, a week - on - week expansion of 5 yuan/ton [41] - **Price Index Changes**: The CotlookA price index increased from 78.2 cents/pound on July 30, 2025, to 78.25 cents/pound on August 6, 2025, an increase of 0.05 cents/pound. The Indian S - 6 spot price decreased from 57,000 rupees/candy on July 31, 2025, to 56,800 rupees/candy on August 7, 2025, a decrease of 200 rupees/candy [10] - **Import Price Changes**: From July 31 to August 7, 2025, the port pick - up prices of imported cotton yarn from India, Vietnam, and Indonesia all decreased. The arrival prices of imported cotton also decreased, with the US EMOT M's 1% tariff price decreasing by 79 yuan/ton and the sliding - scale tariff price decreasing by 44 yuan/ton; the Brazilian M's 1% tariff price decreasing by 181 yuan/ton and the sliding - scale tariff price decreasing by 105 yuan/ton [11] 4. Market Inventory and Position Situation - **Warehouse Receipts**: As of this Thursday, the total of Zhengzhou cotton warehouse receipts and valid forecasts was 8,677; the total of Zhengzhou yarn warehouse receipts and valid forecasts was 88 [53] - **Futures Positions**: The content provides the trends of ICE 2 - grade cotton futures' non - priced sell orders, non - priced buy orders, and futures positions (active contracts and continuous contracts) [48]

Report Summary 1. Investment Rating No investment rating is provided in the report. 2. Core View - The Zhengzhou cotton (ZCE) futures market shows a sideways consolidation pattern, with the main 2509 contract rising 0.29% to close at 13,680 yuan/ton. The Fed's dovish stance supports a slight rebound in US cotton prices, which rose 0.42% overnight to 66.64 cents/pound. Attention should be paid to the Fed's interest - rate cut rhythm and domestic policy trends [2]. - Internationally, the Fed is likely to cut interest rates this year, and the global cotton supply - demand remains loose with weak US cotton export demand, leading to a weak consolidation of international cotton prices. Domestically, although the cotton commercial inventory is decreasing, it is still at a high level. With the new cotton harvest likely to be abundant this year and weak demand, the upside potential of ZCE cotton is limited [17]. 3. Summary by Section 3.1 Market Review - The ZCE main 2509 contract of cotton rose 0.29%, closing at 13,680 yuan/ton, up 40 yuan/ton from the previous trading day. The position and trading volume of ZCE cotton decreased significantly, and the main force has almost completed the roll - over. The Fed's dovish stance supports a slight rebound in US cotton prices [2]. 3.2 Macroeconomic and Industry News - On August 11, 2025, the total cotton warehouse receipts in Zhengzhou Commodity Exchange were 8,452 (-128) pieces, including 8,172 (-80) registered warehouse receipts and 282 (-48) valid forecasts [3]. - As of August 7, the yarn inventory of textile enterprises in major regions was 32.1 days, a month - on - month increase of 0.94%. Downstream fabric mills are operating at a low level, and textile enterprises are in the off - season, purchasing raw materials on - demand. Xinjiang's inventory is on the rise, with large - scale mills having a 35 - 40 - day inventory and inland enterprises having a 15 - 20 - day inventory [4][5]. - From August 9 to 14, there will be high - temperature weather above 35°C in most areas of southern and eastern Xinjiang. Some cotton - growing areas in Xinjiang are at high or relatively high risk [5]. - As of the end of July, the national commercial cotton inventory was 2.1898 million tons, a decrease of 640,000 tons (22.62%) from the previous month and 588,400 tons (21.18%) lower than the same period last year. The industrial inventory of textile enterprises was 898,400 tons, a decrease of 4,600 tons from the previous month. The yarn inventory of textile enterprises was 27.67 days, an increase of 0.44 days from the previous month [5]. - As of July 31, 2025 - 26, Pakistan has harvested over 609,000 bales of seed cotton, while the Pakistan Cotton Ginners Association reported a cotton arrival of 301,000 bales [6]. 3.3 Data Charts - The report provides multiple data charts, including CZCE and ICE cotton futures prices, cotton spot prices and basis, 9 - 1 spread, textile profit, cotton import profit, yarn import profit, warehouse receipt quantity, and non - commercial positions [8][9][11]

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content Group 2: Core Viewpoints - The cotton market is affected by various factors including international trade policies, weather, and supply - demand fundamentals. The market shows a complex situation with price increase, supply - side changes, and weak downstream demand [1][2][3] Group 3: Summary by Directory 1. Market Review - The main cotton contract closed with a small positive line this week. The closing price was 13,640 yuan per ton, up 55 points from last week's close [1] 2. News Situation - The US's 50% tariff increase on India has brought uncertainty to Sino - US trade talks. The US cotton boll - setting rate lags behind the five - year average by 1%, new cotton listing in Pakistan has slowed with production estimates lowered, and the harvest progress in Brazil's main producing areas is slow. Domestically, the low - grade lint cotton inventory on the supply side decreased rapidly last week, and the temperature in Xinjiang remained high this week [2] 3. Fundamental Situation - In terms of supply, domestic cotton de - stocking was obvious this week. On the demand side, downstream textile enterprises are in the off - season with a declining operating rate and normal restocking. Cotton inventory decreased by 555 lots this week, and the cotton basis rate is around 9.1% [3]

Report Summary 1. Investment Rating No investment rating for the industry is provided in the report. 2. Core View - The Zhengzhou cotton (ZCE) main contract 2509 decreased by 0.22%, closing at 13,640 yuan/ton, down 30 yuan/ton from the previous trading day. The positions and trading volume both decreased, with the main force gradually shifting to the next contract. The ICE cotton slightly declined, dropping 0.84% overnight to close at 66.36 cents/pound. Future attention should be paid to the meeting between the leaders of Russia and the United States, the pace of the Fed's interest rate cuts, and the marginal impact of domestic policies [2]. - Internationally, due to factors such as the continuous loose global cotton supply - demand situation and the weak export demand for US cotton, the international cotton price generally maintains a weak consolidation trend. Domestically, although the de - stocking trend of cotton commercial inventory is good, it remains at a high level. The main contract is in the process of position - shifting. With the high probability of a good harvest of new cotton this year and the continued slump in demand, the upward space for Zhengzhou cotton is limited [14]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1. Market Review - The ZCE main contract 2509 of cotton decreased by 0.22%, closing at 13,640 yuan/ton, down 30 yuan/ton from the previous trading day. The positions and trading volume both decreased, and the main force is shifting contracts. The ICE cotton dropped 0.84% overnight, closing at 66.36 cents/pound [2]. 3.2. Macroeconomic and Industry News - On August 8, 2025, the total cotton warehouse receipts on the Zhengzhou Commodity Exchange were 8,582 (-95) sheets, including 8,252 (-77) registered warehouse receipts and 330 (-18) valid forecasts [3]. - In July, enterprises with an operating rate of 90% and above accounted for 38.78%, a decrease of 10.16 percentage points from the previous month; those with an operating rate of 61% - 89% accounted for 38.78%, an increase of 11.12 percentage points; those with an operating rate of 31% - 60% accounted for 22.45%, a decrease of 0.95 percentage points; and no enterprises had an operating rate below 30%, the same as the previous month [4][5]. - In July 2025, China's textile and clothing exports were 26.766 billion US dollars, a year - on - year decrease of 0.06% and a month - on - month decrease of 2.01% [5]. - In the week of July 31, the net signing of US 2024/25 - year land cotton was - 3,901 tons, and the shipment was 41,345 tons. There was no signing of Pima cotton, and the shipment was 2,041 tons. The carry - over to the 2025/26 new - year cotton was 135,715 tons. As of the same period, the net signing of 2025/26 - year land cotton was 24,789 tons, and the net signing of Pima cotton was 1,202 tons. The shipment of the new year has not started. In the week, 7,099 tons of 2026/27 - year land cotton were signed, and no Pima cotton was signed for the next year. China's net signing volume of 2025/26 - year land cotton was - 23 tons and the shipment was 0 tons. 522 tons of Pima cotton were signed, and no Pima cotton was shipped. 249 tons of new - year cotton resources were signed [5]. - As of July 31, 2025, China had cumulatively signed and imported 169,000 tons of US cotton in the 2024/25 year, accounting for 6.07% of the signed US cotton; the cumulative shipment of US cotton was 166,000 tons, accounting for 6.31% of the total US cotton shipment and 98.68% of China's signed volume [6]. - In June, China imported 560 million US dollars of intermediate products, a year - on - year decrease of 13.7%, including 360 million US dollars of imported yarn, a year - on - year decrease of 12.9%, and 200 million US dollars of imported fabrics, a year - on - year decrease of 15.2%. In terms of exports, in June, China exported 6.92 billion US dollars of intermediate products, a year - on - year decrease of 2.1%, including 1.24 billion US dollars of exported yarn, a year - on - year increase of 1.8%, and 5.68 billion US dollars of exported fabrics, a year - on - year decrease of 2.9% [6]. 3.3. Data Charts - The report provides multiple data charts, including CZCE and ICE cotton futures prices, cotton spot prices and basis, 9 - 1 spreads, textile profits, cotton import profits, yarn import profits, warehouse receipt quantities, and non - commercial positions [8][9][11][12]. 3.4. Analysis and Strategy - Internationally, the US Middle East envoy has arrived in Russia, and Trump has set August 8 as the "deadline" for a cease - fire in the Russia - Ukraine war. The future policies and sanctions of the Trump administration after August 8 can be continuously monitored. The international cotton price maintains a weak consolidation trend due to factors such as loose supply - demand and weak export demand [14]. - Domestically, the cotton commercial inventory is de - stocking well but remains at a high level. The main contract is shifting positions. With the high probability of a good harvest of new cotton this year and weak demand, the upward space for Zhengzhou cotton is limited [14].