特别提示 为什么消费刺激不起来？ https://www.jisilu.cn/question/511110 过来人谈谈2015年7月股市腥风血雨的应对或者经历 https://www.jisilu.cn/question/511147 结束内卷，反不正当竞争 https://www.jisilu.cn/question/511244 可转债感觉目前已经处于高位了，大家后续怎么安排？ https://www.jisilu.cn/question/511236 关注集思录微信 本文不构成任何投资建议，仅为信息分享。任何因本文导致的投资行为发生的亏损，本公众号 及作者概不承担任何责任。 集思录(www.jisilu.cn)是一个以数据为本的投资理财社区，专注于新股、可转债、债券、封闭 基金等数据服务。我们的理念是在保证本金安全的前提下，使资产获得稳健增长。 快捷查询： 搜索公众号"jisilu8"添加我们 ...

Core Viewpoint - The fierce competition in the food delivery market is leading companies to invest heavily, potentially reaching a total of 100 billion yuan for the year, despite regulatory pressures against such practices [1][3]. Group 1: Market Dynamics - Companies are investing real money to reclaim market share in a saturated environment, raising questions about the motivations behind these actions [3][12]. - The current situation is likened to a triathlon where competitors unexpectedly revert to the beginning, indicating a possible misjudgment in strategy [5][6]. - The competition is characterized as a zero-sum game, where losses are evident through declining stock prices and lack of synergy among firms [7][8]. Group 2: Regulatory Context - Regulatory bodies have previously intervened to halt aggressive subsidy practices in the market, yet companies are now re-engaging in similar behaviors [3][14]. - There is a contradiction in the actions of companies, as they engage in subsidy wars while also attempting to align with regulatory expectations [13][14]. Group 3: Strategic Insights - The actions of key players, particularly JD.com, are under scrutiny as they pursue multiple initiatives that require significant policy support, such as applying for stablecoin licenses [10][11]. - The competitive landscape suggests that while some companies may feel compelled to engage in price wars, others, like JD.com, may be acting on a different strategic rationale [12][26]. Group 4: Economic Implications - The current investment in subsidies could be interpreted as a response to government calls for stimulating consumption, positioning these actions as beneficial rather than detrimental [30][32]. - The narrative suggests that these subsidies might be viewed as a form of corporate social responsibility, contributing to economic recovery rather than merely fueling competition [30][31].

Core Viewpoint - The introduction of a housing subsidy program in Wuxi's Binhu District aims to stimulate the real estate market by offering financial incentives to football players and fans attending matches, potentially enhancing housing consumption and market confidence [1][2][4]. Group 1: Policy Details - The policy, referred to as "Bin Ten Measures," provides a subsidy of 30,000 to 50,000 yuan for each new home purchased by participants of the Jiangsu Province City Football League and its spectators, effective until October 31, 2025 [1][2]. - As of July 9, 2023, 16 housing projects have joined the subsidy program, with 10 already participating in the initiative for football players and fans [4]. Group 2: Market Context - Wuxi's real estate market has been experiencing a downturn, with a 13.21% year-on-year decrease in transaction volume for the first half of 2025, despite a 15.03% increase in new supply [5]. - The average price of new homes in Wuxi is approximately 22,275 yuan per square meter, reflecting a 4.82% decline compared to the previous year [5]. Group 3: Economic Background - Wuxi's GDP for 2024 is projected to reach 1.63 trillion yuan, with a per capita GDP that has surpassed Shanghai for four consecutive years, ranking second nationally [5][7]. - The city is recognized for its strong industrial base, particularly in high-tech sectors such as integrated circuits and biomedicine, contributing to its economic resilience [7]. Group 4: Comparative Analysis - In terms of housing prices, Wuxi's average is lower than that of Nanjing (28,000 yuan/sqm) and Suzhou (26,000 yuan/sqm), making it relatively more affordable [8]. - Wuxi ranks 24th in the "2025 China Livable Cities Top 30" list, while Nanjing and Suzhou rank 9th and 14th respectively, indicating varying perceptions of livability among residents [8].

2025 年 7 月 9 日 星期三 每日大市点评 隔晚，美国总统特朗普公布包括对日本及韩国征收 25%新的对等关税率，同时签署行政命令，此前的关税暂缓期同样延长 至 8 月 1 日，新的对等关税税率将于 8 月 1 日起生效。昨日亚太区股市表现相对冷静，日本及韩国股市更分别上升 0.3% 及 1.8%。港股也在近期相对落后的科技股带动下回勇，恒生指数上升 260 点或 1.1%，收报 24,148 点。恒生科指上升 1.8%，收报 5,325 点。大市成交金额有 2,133 多亿港元，港股通净流入 3.86 亿港元。市场再热炒稳定币概念，国泰君安 国际(1788 HK)上升 28.5%，全日成交金额达到 128 亿港元，为全市场成交最多的股份。另外，众安在线(6060 HK)再升 3.5%，成交金额 15.9 亿港元，打入前 20 大成交活跃榜。博彩、文旅、券商、内银、消费电子、"新消费"、有色金属均 有较佳表现。权重的科技指数成份股终有反弹，阿里(9988 HK)、美团(3690 HK)、京东(9618 HK)及百度(9888 HK)分别升 1.5%及 3.6%不等，腾讯(700 HK)则微升 0.5%。 ...

有色金属周报(碳酸锂) 国产与进口锂精矿价格有所升高， 国家政策引导落后产能出清预期 www.hongyuanqh.com 2025年07月08日 宏源期货 研究所 王文虎 （F03087656，Z0019472） 碳酸锂 供给端：赣锋锂业旗下MaliLithium所属马里Goulamina锂辉石项目一期年产能50.6万吨锂精矿7月已正 式投产，但是国产(进口)锂矿日度价格有所升高(升高)，或使国内锂精矿7月生产(进口)量环比减少(增加)； 江西上高与宜春因天然气管道检修使部分碳酸锂生产企业于7月3日开始检修5-10天或影响1000吨生产 量，中国碳酸锂产能开工率(生产量)较上周下降(减少)，广东浩海锂电6000吨电池级碳酸锂产能或于25年7 月投产，中国碳酸锂(工业与电池级)7月生产量或环比增加(增加、减少)而供给预期偏松；外购锂辉石和锂 云母精矿产碳酸锂日度现金生产成本分别为61700和66500元/吨左右致生产利润为负； 中国冶炼(苛化)法氢氧化锂日度现金生产成本为56900(64600)元/吨且生产利润为正(负)，雅化集团计 划25年底前建成3万吨氢氧化锂产线，或使中国氢氧化锂(冶炼与苛化法)7月生产 ...

本文由 AI算法生成，仅作参考，不涉投资建议，使用风险自担 【7月首周A股震荡上行，多领域财经动态引关注】7月首周，A股市场持续震荡上行，主要宽基指数普 遍上涨。市场热点丰富，行业轮动加快，银行板块再创新高。7月将迎来美国关税谈判、中报业绩预 告、政治局会议等不确定性落地窗口，市场波动性或增强，可关注业绩确定性强及政策聚焦板块。 央 行发布《贵金属和宝石从业机构反洗钱和反恐怖融资管理办法》，新规要求贵金属和宝石从业机构对单 笔10万元及以上现金交易履行反洗钱义务。该办法对普通消费者日常购金影响有限，目前大额现金购金 情况少，刷卡消费不受限。 7月2日，淘宝闪购启动500亿元补贴计划，将在12个月内直补消费者及商 家。据7月4日数据，补贴上线后，餐饮连锁品牌、中小商家生意分别环比增长170%、140%，多品类美 食订单量环比增超150%，多场景订单增长超170%。 美团旗下硬折扣超市"快乐猴"将于8月开业，首批3 家门店分别位于北京1家、杭州2家，面积800 - 1000平方米，模式对标盒马NB。"快乐猴超市"微信小程 序已上线，目前仅显示基础会员码，暂无门店上线，简介为"好货不贵，省钱不累"，关联小程序有美团 ...

大摩宏观闭门会：反内卷，见真章？关注三个重要政策的拐点 20250707 发言人 00:00 大家上午好，欢迎来到 1 周一度的大摩宏观策略谈，我是邢自强 Robin。今天我们关注三个重要的政策 拐点。首先是美国通过了大而美法案，那么他对美国经济、美国市场以及长期大家担心的美国财政的可 持续性分别有什么影响？今天我和我们的首席策略是 loa，会一起来解读大而美法案的市场影响力。 发言人 00:28 同样 7 月 9 号，也就是说这周会迎来关税战暂停键的大限已经到了。那经历了这个大限日期之后，到底 各国跟美国之间的贸易摩擦何去何从？同样 loa 跟我也会根据我们全球地缘政治形势，团队对这个问题 最近的一些分析判断跟大家进行分享。国内的政策以及消费科技层面也面临很大的拐点和辩论。过去几 天了，我一直先是在北京出差，参加了几场政策研讨会。之后也在深圳，你今天在上海跟一些投资者， 本地的企业家，就市场预期和热点辩论进行了交流。很显然，大家都注意到，无论是中央层面的顶层设 计，比如说中财委的会议和接下来政治局可能讨论的问题，还是在南方，不管是深圳还是上海等地制造 业前沿的市场反馈，都释放出了一个共同的信号。甚至这个信号 ...

截至2025年5月底全社会存款326万亿，其中居民存款160万亿，1年期存款利率已经低于 1%。10年期国债收益率早已经低于2%（最新为1.66%）。为什么消费还是起不来？ 看看居民存款的结构就明白了： 前10%储户掌握近70%存款，约6亿人存款接近零；存款超50万的群体仅占0.37%。 前20%高净值家庭拥有全国约83%的家庭存款，而底部40%的家庭仅拥有约2.5%的存款。 这还只是人民币存款的情况，还有不少高净值家庭的存款是以其他货币形式存在。 tangyin88 量化投资先锋 @GODSAVEME 贫富差距不够大，比如日本，消费也是起不来。 差距大的，就没这种问题，比如美国，印度。 美国的消费的50%由10%的富人完成，中国前20%只消费了40%。 中国的富人们没消费觉悟，身家亿万的还要把包装盒攒起来卖掉，饮料瓶上的二维码也要扫 掉。 中国的穷人们也没觉悟，十四亿人口的大国居然还要从美国买血，看看美国的穷人们怎么干 的。 还是认识不清， 刺激消费的主要对象应该是谁？ 是有钱人还是工薪阶级？ 这个问题认清了才能 出政策。 市场经济带来的自然结果就是贫富差距增大， 一没有好的税收制度去调节， 二没有舆 论环 ...

Core Viewpoint - The article emphasizes the importance of "expanding domestic demand and promoting consumption" as a key macroeconomic policy in China, especially under the dual challenges of stabilizing growth and external pressures. It advocates for a combination of short-term stimulus measures and long-term structural reforms to enhance consumer capacity and confidence [1][2]. Summary by Sections Historical Consumption Tools - China's past consumption promotion policies can be categorized into direct fiscal subsidies and indirect support measures. Direct subsidies include rural subsidies, trade-in subsidies, and consumption vouchers, while indirect measures involve tax reductions and fee exemptions [3]. - Significant past initiatives include the "home appliance and vehicle going to the countryside" policies from 2007 to 2012, and the promotion of electric vehicle consumption through tax exemptions since 2018 [3][4]. Effectiveness of Consumption Promotion - The first round of home appliance and vehicle policies yielded substantial results, with a total subsidy of 76.5 billion yuan leading to sales of 659.76 billion yuan, achieving a fiscal multiplier of 8.6. Sales of home appliances and vehicles saw significant year-on-year increases during this period [6][7]. - The current "trade-in" policy has shown remarkable effects, with sales of home appliances increasing by 39% year-on-year in December 2024, driven by enhanced fiscal support and expanded subsidy coverage [9]. Service Consumption Recovery - Service consumption still has considerable room for recovery compared to goods consumption, with a notable gap from pre-2019 levels. The article suggests that expanding consumption policies to include services could accelerate this recovery [10]. - Improving residents' leisure time through optimized holiday policies and encouraging paid leave can further stimulate service consumption [10]. Long-term Mechanisms for Consumption - To sustain consumption recovery, it is essential to focus on reducing burdens and increasing income for residents. Current measures include lowering mortgage rates and providing rental subsidies for new residents and young people [11]. - Structural reforms in income distribution and social security systems are crucial for long-term consumption growth. For instance, increasing pension levels and implementing child-rearing subsidies could significantly enhance consumer spending capacity [11][12]. Targeted Support for Key Demographics - The article highlights the need for targeted support for vulnerable groups, particularly the elderly and children, to stimulate consumption in essential categories such as food and healthcare [12]. - A comprehensive analysis of consumption policies indicates that effective consumption stimulation requires a combination of short-term effectiveness and long-term structural mechanisms, focusing on collaborative promotion of goods and services [13].

t》 - 我 投资咨询业务资格:证监许可 【2011】1292 2025年6月30日 星期- Z0015979 价格及基差 | | 现值 | 前值 | 日涨跌 | 日涨跌幅 | 車位 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | SMM 1#电解铜 | 80125 | 78940 | +1185.00 | 1.50% | 元/吨 | | SMM 1#电解铜升贴水 | 110 | ୧୧ | +45.00 | - | 元/吨 | | SMM 广东1#电解铜 | 80070 | 78865 | +1205.00 | 1.53% | 元/吨 | | SMM 广东1#电解铜升贴水 | વેટ | રેર | +40.00 | | 元/吨 | | SMM湿法铜 | 80045 | 78880 | +1165.00 | 1.48% | 元/吨 | | SMM湿法铜升贴水 | 30 | 5 | +25.00 | - | 元/吨 | | 精废价差 | Taes | 1452 | +513.08 | 35.34% | 元/吨 | | LME 0-3 | 240.67 | 319.83 | - ...