中流击水，革故鼎新——食品行业 2025 年度中期投资策 略 20250710 摘要 白酒行业正经历深度调整，供需关系变化显著，需求端升级与降级并存， 酒企主动调整供给节奏以适应市场新变化，产品和量价策略面临深刻变 革，建议关注产品结构均衡、库存健康的企业。 大众品领域重回渠道为王时代，新渠道如会员超市、零食量贩和直播电 商颠覆传统渠道，提供性价比更高的消费选择，实现结构性增长；新产 品如休闲磨鱼等细分行业创新迭代，实现高速成长。 白酒库存周期影响企业报表，当前处于主动去库存阶段，收入增速探底， 企业对库存和市场秩序管理更加科学，高端酒价格承压，中高档产品保 持消费升级状态，优选产品结构均衡、库存良性的企业。 新消费趋势下，零食连锁、折扣零售等模式创新企业快速发展，通过高 效率、便捷化、性价比方式实现结构性增长，投资逻辑聚焦渠道企业及 关联制造企业机会，具备产能和原料优势的企业持续占优。 休闲零食销售渠道呈现均衡发展趋势，会员超市、零食量贩、直播电商 等新兴渠道兴起，仓储会员制超市持续扩容，硬折扣模式带来效率革命， 零食量贩门店迅速抢占下沉市场，相关企业享受行业红利。 Q&A 2025 年食品饮料行业的整体投 ...

Group 1: Retail Market Performance - In Q2, Shanghai's retail market showed improved leasing demand with a net absorption of 156,000 square meters, driven by "consumption promotion" policies and emerging consumption trends [1] - Major brands, including luxury and sports brands, are increasingly interested in opening flagship and concept stores in core business districts, with Louis Vuitton recently launching a new landmark in Shanghai [1] - The vacancy rate in core business districts decreased by 0.3 percentage points to 9.6%, while the vacancy rate in non-core areas slightly increased by 0.3 percentage points to 14.1% due to ongoing market competition [1] Group 2: Rental Trends - Rental prices in Shanghai's retail properties continued to decline, with core district first-floor average rent decreasing by 1.1% to CNY 43.1 per square meter per day, and non-core area rent down by 1.8% to CNY 15 per square meter per day [2] - Landlords are offering rental discounts and attractive leasing terms to attract brands amid competitive market pressures [2] - Despite challenges, demand for leasing in sectors like sports apparel, trendy toys, and affordable dining is expected to grow due to consumer focus on health and entertainment [2] Group 3: Residential Market Insights - In Q2, Shanghai's overall new residential sales volume increased by 14.0% to 1.7 million square meters, with high-end residential sales showing a decline of 21.2% [2] - The pace of new residential project launches accelerated, with 1.67 million square meters of new supply introduced, a 114.5% increase from the previous quarter [2] - The average price of new high-end residential properties rose by 0.6% to CNY 147,900 per square meter, while the average price of second-hand high-end residential properties fell by 2.0% to CNY 132,800 per square meter [3]

Market Performance - On July 9, the Shanghai Composite Index reached 3507.69, marking a 0.29% increase and a new high for the year [1] - The Shenzhen Component Index rose by 0.36% to 10626.87, while the ChiNext Index increased by 0.80% to 2198.44 [1] - The total market turnover for the half-day session was 969.1 billion, an increase of 83.8 billion from the previous day [1] - A total of 2083 stocks in the market experienced gains [1] Sector Performance - The multi-financial, short drama gaming, childcare services, banking, and pork sectors saw the highest gains [2] - The banking sector performed well, with Chongqing Rural Commercial Bank leading with a 3.30% increase, and several other banks, including Lanzhou Bank and Zijin Bank, rising over 2% [2] - The robotics sector was active, with Upwind New Materials hitting the 20% limit up due to a significant acquisition announcement [2] - Conversely, the shipbuilding, storage chip, rare earth permanent magnet, and non-ferrous metal sectors faced declines, particularly in the storage chip sector, where companies like Youfang Technology and Chengbang Co. saw drops of 8.97% and 5.98%, respectively [2] Future Outlook - According to Guangfa Securities, the market is expected to continue being driven by banks, pharmaceuticals, and computing power, with potential for slight upward movement or fluctuations in the index [2] - CITIC Securities highlighted a global nuclear energy revival driven by carbon neutrality goals and energy security, predicting stable demand for uranium due to limited new supply and concentrated existing mines [3] - China International Capital Corporation noted that the food and beverage sector is expected to see marginal improvement, particularly in snack foods and soft drinks, while the liquor sector may face continued pressure but has begun to show value [3]

Core Insights - The ISPO SHANGHAI 2023 showcased over 600 brands from nearly 30 countries, attracting more than 30,000 professional buyers and sports enthusiasts, indicating a robust interest in the outdoor sports sector [1][2] - The event highlighted shifting consumer trends in outdoor activities, with a decline in popularity for camping and frisbee, while activities like creek hiking, rock climbing, trail running, and fishing gained traction [1][2] Industry Trends - The outdoor sports market is rapidly evolving, with a notable increase in the presence of new brands and product categories, particularly in water sports and climbing [2][4] - The water sports segment is projected to exceed 6 billion yuan by 2027, with a compound annual growth rate of around 10% [4] - Experience zones have expanded significantly, allowing consumers to engage with products in real-world settings, which is crucial for niche and emerging sports [5][7] Consumer Behavior - Young consumers are increasingly divided in their purchasing behavior, favoring both high-value and high-end products, which reflects a blend of price sensitivity and a willingness to pay for premium experiences [9] - The presence of both budget-friendly and high-end brands at the event indicates a strategic response to diverse consumer preferences [9]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a recommendation for the food and beverage industry, indicating a positive outlook for structural growth opportunities [20][21]. Core Insights - The report highlights a stabilization in the price of Moutai, suggesting a potential improvement in sentiment within the liquor sector. It notes that while short-term demand fluctuations may lead to a slowdown in the liquor sector in Q2 2025, leading companies are working to maintain price stability, and smaller companies are adapting to consumer trends [20][21]. - The snack segment is experiencing stable performance in traditional channels, with rapid growth in membership supermarket channels. New products are expected to be launched in the second half of 2025, and the pet food sector is also showing good growth [20][21]. - The report emphasizes the importance of product quality enhancement, channel expansion, and innovative marketing strategies as key methods for companies to navigate current market challenges [20][21]. Summary by Sections Core Company Tracking - Luzhou Laojiao is improving market inventory and plans to expand its distribution network to four million terminals over the next five years. The company is also developing lower-alcohol products [11][12]. - Yanghe Co. has appointed new leadership, which is expected to drive organizational adjustments and enhance operational dynamics. The company continues to innovate its product line [12]. - Jiugui Liquor is focusing on channel adjustments and has partnered with a retail chain to explore new growth avenues [13]. - New Dairy is benefiting from cost advantages, leading to stronger profit release capabilities, with a focus on low-temperature milk products [14]. - Jinzai Food is in a cautious operational phase, with stable performance in traditional and snack channels [15][16]. - Zhongchong Co. is seeing continued growth in its self-owned brands, despite some export challenges [17]. - Petty Co. is expanding its product offerings in both snacks and staple foods, with a focus on New Zealand's production capacity [18]. - Anji Food has successfully listed its H shares, raising approximately 2.302 billion HKD [19]. Investment Recommendations - The report suggests focusing on growth sectors influenced by changing consumer trends, with specific recommendations for companies like Zhongchong Co., Guobao Pet Food, and Nongfu Spring [21]. - It also highlights structural growth opportunities in the restaurant chain recovery, recommending companies such as Zhujiang Beer and Yanjing Beer [21]. - For traditional consumer goods, it advises investing in leading liquor companies and dairy products, with a focus on companies like Yili and New Dairy [21]. Industry Overview - The food and beverage industry is characterized by a total of 143 listed companies with a total market capitalization of 478.1 billion RMB [4]. - The industry has shown a mixed performance, with a 1-month absolute performance of -4.7% and a 12-month performance of 28.2% [6].

证券研究报告 | 行业周报 gszqdatemark 2025 07 06 年 月 日 食品饮料 周观点：关注健康化消费趋势、产品创新与渠道迭代 分析师 李梓语 执业证书编号：S0680524120001 邮箱：liziyu1@gszq.com 分析师 陈熠 执业证书编号：S0680523080003 邮箱：chenyi5@gszq.com 分析师 王玲瑶 执业证书编号：S0680524060005 邮箱：wanglingyao@gszq.com 相关研究 1、《食品饮料：周观点：啤酒饮料正当旺季，持续关注 渠道变化》 2025-06-29 2、《拆解 IFBH 的椰子水王国：——饮料行业系列报告 （二）》 2025-06-24 3、《食品饮料：保健品 618 点评：健康消费风起，细 分赛道亮眼》 2025-06-24 投资建议：1、白酒：多家高管调整，产业持续迭代更新，期待板块筑 底企稳，建议关注"优势龙头、红利延续、强势复苏"三条主线：1） 优势龙头，头部酒企份额持续提升：贵州茅台、五粮液、山西汾酒、古 井贡酒；2）红利延续，高确定性区域酒：今世缘（江苏格局红利）、 迎驾贡酒（洞藏大单品红利）等；3）受益 ...

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the articles highlights the resilience of the consumer sector in the A-share market, with the Consumption ETF (159928) showing a slight increase despite overall market adjustments [1][3] - The Consumption ETF has seen a net inflow of funds, with a total scale exceeding 12.1 billion yuan, leading its peers significantly [1] - Major stocks within the Consumption ETF, such as Moutai and Wuliangye, have shown positive performance, while some brands like Dongpeng Beverage have experienced declines [3] Group 2 - Moutai's price has stabilized after a previous decline, with the 2025 flying Moutai box price recovering to over 1900 yuan, indicating a positive market sentiment [4] - The beverage and snack sectors are identified as having structural growth opportunities, with the tea and energy drink markets showing significant potential [4][5] - The white liquor sector is expected to undergo a valuation recovery, with leading companies like Moutai and Wuliangye offering attractive dividend yields of 3.6%, 4.8%, and 5.2% respectively [8][9] Group 3 - The consumer food sector is projected to see steady demand growth in the second half of 2025, with new consumption trends continuing to thrive [7] - The focus is on high-growth segments such as healthy beverages and snacks, which are expected to maintain innovation and market vitality [7] - The overall demand for the liquor industry may remain under pressure, but leading brands are anticipated to navigate through the cycle effectively [8]

70 后至 00 后的新兴消费变迁史，是轮回还是演进？ 20250701 摘要 消费者行为转变：消费者在预算受限情况下，更加注重情绪价值和悦己 型消费，例如潮玩、宠物、美妆等低单价但情绪属性强的商品，以及具 有储蓄属性的黄金珠宝，体现了宏观降级但自身升级的消费趋势。 国货品牌崛起：国货品牌在美妆领域已占据超过 50%的市场份额，并通 过技术升级和国潮文化在其他领域持续提升市场份额。功能性和时尚潮 流是推动国货崛起的重要因素。 产品驱动增长：渠道驱动和内容营销驱动逐渐失效，消费品市场进入产 品驱动增长时代，需要通过更好的性价比产品来刺激消费者购买决策。 黄金消费新趋势：黄金饰品消费从婚庆礼赠转向悦己和保值需求，新工 艺技术使得黄金饰品种类更加丰富，情绪价值较高且单价较低的新品类 增速明显。 情绪价值溢价：在经济下行周期，通过情绪价值实现产品溢价是一种有 效方式，例如高价手机壳品牌 Casefiy 和小件高频商品如沙发套，通过 满足消费者情绪需求获得较高定价权。 Q&A 新消费趋势的驱动力是什么？其背后的经济和社会背景有哪些变化？ 新消费趋势的驱动力主要来自于经济基础和社会背景的变革。首先，随着 GDP 增长到一 ...

Market Overview - The Chinese liquor industry is undergoing a new adjustment cycle, transitioning from "volume competition" to "value creation" [1] - In 2024, the total production of large-scale enterprises was 4.145 million kiloliters, a year-on-year decrease of 1.8%, with a 7.2% decline in Q1 [1] - Despite the production decline, industry revenue and profit grew by 5.3% and 7.8% respectively in 2024, indicating a shift towards "quality improvement" and "brand influence" [1] Industry Trends - The concentration of the industry has increased, with the top six liquor companies accounting for 86% of total industry profits in 2024, up over 30 percentage points from ten years ago [1] - The brand "Guojiao 1573" is now one of the top three high-end liquor brands in China, with a leading national market presence [1][2] Consumer Behavior - Consumer preferences are shifting from "quantity satisfaction" to "quality pursuit," with younger demographics (post-85s and post-90s) favoring personalized and lower-alcohol products [3] - Consumption scenarios are diversifying, with stable growth in traditional events and emerging trends in cultural experiences and technology integration [3][4] Sales and Marketing Strategies - Instant retail transactions for liquor grew over 65% year-on-year in the first half of the year, reflecting a shift towards immediate consumption [4] - The company is enhancing its marketing focus from "channel pressure" to "precise reach" and "user operation" [4] Company Performance - The company achieved a revenue of 31.196 billion RMB in 2024, a 482.73% increase from 2014, with a compound annual growth rate of 19.27% [6] - Net profit reached 13.473 billion RMB in 2024, a 1431.18% increase from 2014, with a compound annual growth rate of 31.37% [6] Strategic Advantages - The company has implemented a comprehensive strategy since the 13th Five-Year Plan, focusing on governance, market share, brand culture, quality, and talent [5] - The company has established a quality traceability system across the entire production chain, enhancing product quality and efficiency [8] Innovation and Development - The company is actively developing lower-alcohol products, with a focus on 38-degree and 28-degree variants, responding to market demand [11] - The company has built an ecological park with an annual production capacity of 100,000 tons of high-quality solid-state liquor [8] Social Responsibility - From 2015 to 2024, the company invested approximately 274 million RMB in public welfare, receiving multiple awards for its contributions [10] - The cumulative cash dividends since the company's listing reached 52.059 billion RMB, with a dividend rate of 61.58%, ranking among the top in A-share companies [10]

再谈游戏布局机会 20250630 摘要 游戏行业正经历景气上行周期，受精神和情绪消费刚需及游戏供给增加 驱动，新消费趋势下，00 后、Z 世代和女性用户等新群体涌现，对二次 元、派对类等创新品类需求旺盛，AI 技术赋能游戏，长期成长空间广阔。 2024 年月均发放版号 118 款，2025 年上半年国产游戏版号数量持续 增加，6 月达 157 款，版号供给稳定增加，缓解了游戏公司新品上线压 力，使公司能更灵活地安排上线档期，减少了市场规模收入的波动性。 2025 年第一季度中国国内游戏市场规模达 857.04 亿元，同比增长 18%，4 月和 5 月移动游戏市场规模环比增长，未现淡季效应。新游表 现超预期，如《超自然行动组》、《爆炒萌厨》和《仗剑传说》等。 《超自然行动组》依靠优质内容口碑发酵，畅销榜排名显著上升；《爆 炒萌厨》凭借厨房派对竞技类题材吸引大量预约用户，上线后 DAU 稳居 百万级；《仗剑传说》长期维持在 iPhone 畅销榜前 20 名。 心动公司海外产品《异色重启日》进入全球超过 30 个国家地区 iPhone 畅销榜前 50 名，首月流水已过亿，心动小镇作为大 DAU 模拟经营游戏， 具 ...