菜油：周一菜油期货上涨，主力2605合约收涨1.64%于9359。My steel统计国内菜油现货均价：9914（+100）。商务部周六公布了 对菜籽反倾销的最终裁定，5.9%的反倾销税加上9%的最惠国税率 ，与之前市场预期的菜籽15%税率基本一致。以15%的关税换算， 目前加菜籽的盘面压榨利润并无太大空间，远月供应宽松的利空或 将更多表现在基差上。后市来看，美国环境保护署白宫提交新的生 物燃料混合量授权提案，该规则可能会在3月底前最终确定，若此 次移除进口原料RINs惩罚，叠加先前45z补贴规则剔除 iLUC 惩罚 ，将大幅利好菜油的生柴需求。周末中东地缘骤紧，能源价格飙涨 下对油脂板块亦有间接带动作用。菜油或震荡偏强，可考虑谨慎偏 多看待，05合约上方关注9390-9400压力区间，下方关注8800-88 10支撑区间。 棕榈油：周一棕榈油期货上涨，主力2605合约收涨1.62%于8898 。Mysteel统计棕榈油现货价格涨跌情况：天津24度棕榈油8970， 山东24度棕榈油8950，江苏24度棕榈油8830，广州24度棕榈油8 810。中东冲突升级，能源价格飙涨下对油脂板块亦有间接带动作 用。自身基本 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided in the report 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The CBOT soybean May contract rose 20.25 to close at 1170 cents per bushel, a 1.76% increase; the soybean meal 05 contract rose 33 to close at 2833 yuan per ton, a 1.18% increase; the South China soybean meal spot price rose 20 to close at 3080 yuan per ton, a 0.65% increase; the rapeseed meal 05 contract fell 22 to close at 2287 yuan per ton, a 0.95% decrease; the Guangxi rapeseed meal spot price remained flat compared to the previous week [5][8]. - The upward movement of US soybeans is due to the favorable US biodiesel policy driving up soybean oil prices, and expectations of increased strategic purchases of US soybeans by China when Trump visits China at the end of March. Domestic soybean meal is stronger than rapeseed meal. News of soybean customs clearance has disturbed the market, driving up prices. Spot prices are weak, and the basis has declined. The import window for Canadian rapeseed has reopened, and future supply is increasing, causing rapeseed meal to decline [5][8]. - Forecasts of increased precipitation in southern Brazil have alleviated concerns about drought, accelerating the harvest and increasing export supply. The implementation of the US biodiesel policy is beneficial to soybean oil demand, causing US soybeans to move upward. Currently, they are in a previous high-pressure zone, and the strength of the resistance should be monitored. Last week, news of extended import soybean customs clearance time boosted the market. Domestic oil mill operating rates have recovered, but downstream purchasing and restocking sentiment is weak. Soybean meal inventories are high, overall supply is sufficient, spot prices are relatively weak, and the basis has declined. The 100% additional tariff on Canadian rapeseed meal imports has been cancelled, and the anti-dumping duty on Canadian rapeseed imports has been significantly reduced to 5.9%. Future supply of Canadian rapeseed products is increasing. It is expected that the Dalian soybean meal will fluctuate in the short term [5][13]. 3. Summary by Directory Market Data - The CBOT soybean price rose 20.25 to 1170 cents per bushel, a 1.76% increase; the CNF import price of Brazilian soybeans rose 4 to 467 dollars per ton, a 0.86% increase; the CNF import price of US Gulf soybeans rose 5 to 514 dollars per ton, a 0.98% increase; the Brazilian soybean crushing profit on the futures market rose 47.01 to 25.98 yuan per ton; the DCE soybean meal price rose 33 to 2833 yuan per ton, a 1.18% increase; the CZCE rapeseed meal price fell 22 to 2287 yuan per ton, a 0.95% decrease; the soybean meal - rapeseed meal price difference increased 55 to 546 yuan per ton; the East China spot price remained flat at 3080 yuan per ton; the South China spot price rose 20 to 3080 yuan per ton, a 0.65% increase; the South China spot - futures price difference decreased 13 to 247 yuan per ton [6]. Market Analysis and Outlook - The 2026 US soybean planting area is expected to increase by 3.8 million acres to 85 million acres, in line with market expectations. The USDA Chief Economist warns that production costs are expected to remain high, squeezing planting profit margins [9]. - As of the week of February 19, 2026, US soybean export sales for the 2025/2026 season increased by 407,000 tons, compared to 798,000 tons the previous week. The cumulative sales volume for the current season is 35.65 million tons, with a sales progress of 83.2%, compared to 86.5% last year. China's net purchases of US soybeans for the week were 76,000 tons, with a cumulative purchase volume of 10.66 million tons and an unshipped volume of 4.5 million tons [9]. - As of the week of February 20, 2026, the US soybean crushing profit was 2.74 dollars per bushel, compared to 2.60 dollars per bushel the previous week; the truck - quoted price of crude soybean oil in central Illinois was 58.98 cents per pound, compared to 56.66 cents per pound the previous week; the spot price of 48% protein soybean meal at soybean processing plants in central Illinois was 308.37 dollars per short ton, compared to 311.97 dollars per short ton the previous week; the price of No. 1 yellow soybeans per truck was 11.39 dollars per bushel, compared to 11.34 dollars per bushel the previous week [9][10]. - The NOPA monthly crushing report shows that the US soybean crushing volume in January 2026 was 221.564 million bushels, a 1.52% decrease from December. Compared to December 2024, it increased by 10.6%. The cumulative US soybean crushing volume from September 2025 to January 2026 was 1.088106 billion bushels, a 11.32% increase from the same period last year. The USDA's target for crushing demand growth in the 2025/2026 season is 5.11% [10]. - The US Environmental Protection Agency will submit a new biofuel blending mandate proposal to the White House on Wednesday, and the rule may be finalized by the end of March. The market is concerned about whether the proposal will increase the target usage of biodiesel and renewable diesel, which would significantly support soybean oil demand and prices [11]. - As of February 21, the Brazilian soybean harvest rate was 32.3%, compared to 24.7% the previous week and 36.4% last year, with a five - year average of 36.6%. Brazil's soybean exports in February are expected to be 10.69 million tons, lower than the previous week's estimate of 11.46 million tons [11]. - As of the week of February 25, 2026, the proportion of normal and excellent crop conditions in Argentina was 71%, compared to 75% the previous week and 68% last year. Forecasts show that cumulative precipitation in the Argentine soybean - growing areas will be below normal in the next 15 days, and the soybean production estimate remains in the range of 48 - 50 million tons [11]. - As of the week of February 20, 2026, the soybean inventory of major oil mills was 5.1954 million tons, an increase of 421,500 tons from the previous week and 181,200 tons from the same period last year; the soybean meal inventory was 842,500 tons, an increase of 3,100 tons from the previous week and 343,700 tons from the same period last year; the unexecuted contracts were 3.1591 million tons, a decrease of 64,500 tons from the previous week and 62,000 tons from the same period last year. The national port soybean inventory was 5.594 million tons, an increase of 605,000 tons from the previous week and a decrease of 112,600 tons from the same period last year [12]. - As of the week of February 27, the national average daily soybean meal trading volume was 35,640 tons, including 32,040 tons of spot trading and 3,600 tons of forward trading. The average daily total trading volume in the week before the holiday was 34,860 tons. The average daily soybean meal pick - up volume was 110,960 tons, compared to 125,180 tons in the week before the holiday. The crushing volume of major oil mills was 588,600 tons, compared to 1.6879 million tons in the week before the holiday. The soybean meal inventory days of feed enterprises were 9.89 days, compared to 12.59 days in the previous week [12]. Industry News - The SECEX agency reported that the pace of Brazilian soybean exports in the third week of February 2026 was lower than the same period last year. From February 1 to 20, Brazilian soybean exports were 4.085 million tons, compared to 6.428 million tons in February 2025. The average daily export volume so far in February is 314,205 tons, a 2.2% decrease year - on - year [14]. - The Agricultural Economics Institute of Mato Grosso reported that as of February 20, the soybean harvest progress in the 2025/26 season in the state had reached 65.75% of the planted area, higher than 51.01% a week ago, slightly lower than 66.16% in the same period last year, but still higher than the five - year average of 57.25% [14]. - The IMEA agency reported that as of the week of February 20, the soybean crushing profit in Mato Grosso, Brazil was 613.00 reais per ton, compared to 628.17 reais per ton the previous week; the price of 46% protein soybean meal was 1597.94 reais per ton, compared to 1581.09 reais per ton the previous week; the average price of soybean oil was 5916.29 reais per ton, compared to 5912.42 reais per ton the previous week; the average price of soybeans was 101.84 reais per bag, compared to 102.16 reais per bag the previous week [14]. - Cargill announced that its terminal on the Santa Maria River in Para, Brazil, remains closed. Local indigenous people occupied the terminal, forcing workers to evacuate, halting operations. The terminal processes 5.5 million tons of corn and soybeans annually. Soybean growers in Para are worried about supply disruptions [15]. - According to the European Commission, as of February 22, the EU's palm oil imports in the 2025/26 season were 1.89 million tons, compared to 1.96 million tons last year; the EU's rapeseed imports were 2.75 million tons, compared to 4.33 million tons last year; the EU's soybean imports were 8.11 million tons, compared to 9.13 million tons last year [15]. - US President Trump will visit China from March 31 to April 2, for a highly anticipated meeting with China's top leader. This will be the first face - to - face meeting between the two leaders since their meeting in South Korea in October last year [15]. - Statistics Canada's oilseed crushing data shows that in January 2026, Canada's rapeseed crushing volume was 1,053,420 tons, a 4.24% increase from the same period last year. The rapeseed oil production was 449,181 tons, a 5.99% increase year - on - year. The rapeseed meal production was 618,302 tons, a 4.57% increase year - on - year. The cumulative rapeseed crushing volume in the 2025/26 season is 6,115,197 tons, with rapeseed oil production of 2,591,237 tons and rapeseed meal production of 3,583,087 tons [16]. - According to foreign media reports, the 2025/26 soybean harvest rate in Parana, Brazil, has reached 37%. The state's agricultural economic department estimates the output at 22.12 million tons, consistent with the figure announced in January. Of the 5.77 million hectares of planted soybeans, 2.16 million hectares have been harvested. The current harvest progress lags behind the same period last year, but is normal compared to this year. Among the unharvested soybeans, 88% are in good condition, 11% are in average condition, and 1% are in poor condition [16]. - Reuters reported that the US Environmental Protection Agency plans to re - allocate at least 50% (possibly close to 75%) of the exempted biofuel blending obligations to large refineries, causing soybean oil prices to reach a recent high [16]. - Starting from March 1, 2026, China officially imposes a 5.9% anti - dumping duty on imported rapeseed from Canada for a period of 5 years. Starting from the same date, China officially cancels the 100% "anti - discrimination" tariff on rapeseed meal (oil cake) imported from Canada [17]. Related Charts - The report includes multiple charts showing the trends of US soybean continuous contracts, Brazilian soybean CNF arrival prices, RMB spot exchange rates, regional crushing profits, soybean meal main contracts, management fund CBOT net positions, spot - futures price differences of soybean meal, regional soybean meal spot prices, soybean meal M 5 - 9 month spreads, Brazilian and Argentine soybean - growing area precipitation and temperature, Brazilian soybean harvest progress, Argentine soybean crop conditions, US soybean cumulative sales, weekly net sales, weekly exports, US oil mill crushing profits, soybean meal weekly average daily trading volume and pick - up volume, port and oil mill soybean inventories, oil mill weekly crushing volume, unexecuted contracts, oil mill soybean meal inventories, and feed enterprise soybean meal inventory days [18][19][20][23][25][26][30][31][32][33][35][37][39][41][46][47].

观点与策略 2026年03月02日 国泰君安期货商品研究晨报-农产品 | 棕榈油：基本面矛盾有限，关注油价扰动 | 2 | | --- | --- | | 豆油：美豆成本支撑，区间运行为主 | 2 | | 豆粕：中东地缘事件影响情绪，或稳中偏强 | 4 | | 豆一：关注国内商品市场情绪，或稳中偏强 | 4 | | 玉米：震荡偏强 | 6 | | 白糖：中东战火再起，涨价情绪火上浇油 | 7 | | 棉花：预计维持偏强走势20260302 | 8 | | 鸡蛋：震荡调整 | 10 | | 生猪：淡季被动累库，肥标驱动将现 | 11 | | 花生：震荡运行 | 12 | 国 泰 君 安 期 货 研 究 所 请务必阅读正文之后的免责条款部分 1 期货研究 商 品 研 究 【宏观及行业新闻】 ITS：马来西亚 2 月棕榈油出口量下降 21.5%。马来西亚 2 月棕榈油出口量预计为 1,149,063 吨。 2026 年 03 月 02 日 棕榈油：基本面矛盾有限，关注油价扰动 豆油：美豆成本支撑，区间运行为主 | | | 【基本面跟踪】 油脂基本面数据 | | | 单 位 | 收盘价 (日盘） | 涨跌幅 | 收盘 ...

上周(02.23~02.27),美豆期价小幅上升,利多因素:美国关税政策缓和(2月25日美国贸易代 表杰米森 · 格里尔表示,特朗普政府不打算提高对中国商品的关税)、美豆油偏强带动（美国生物燃料生 产前景明朗:生物燃料惨混要求预计3月底前最终确定、大型炼油厂至少弥补一半生物燃料修混豁免额度 等);偏空因素:美国关税政策不确定《美国贸易代表格里尔表示,将继续推进对中国履行中美第一阶段 经贸协议情况 301 调查,并可能采取关税措施)、市场担忧中方采购美豆需求受到影响。截至２月 27日, 美豆主力 05 合约周涨幅 1.41%,美豆粕主力 05 合约周涨幅 1.85%。 上周(02.24~02.27),国内豆粕和豆一期价"先跌后涨、重心上移"。豆粕方面,一方面美豆、巴 西贴水稳中偏强,带来成本端支撑;另一方面,中美贸易事件不确定性犹动:美国贸易代表格里尔表示, 将继续推进对中国履行中美第一阶段经贸协议情况 301 调查。并可能采取关税措施。豆一方面，东北产区 现货价格补涨，购销较少。期价仍偏强,受到整体豆类市场情绪影响、且无利空因素。从周Ｋ线角度。2 月 27 日当周,豆粕主力 m2605 合约周涨幅 1.18% ...

| 品种 | 核心观点 | 主要逻辑 | | --- | --- | --- | | | | 美国生物燃料生产前景明朗，美国环保署预计将在 3 月底前最终确定新的生物燃料 | | 豆粕 | | 掺混强制规定。此外，美国未提高中国商品的关税，缓解了市场担忧，隔夜美豆收 | | ★ | 偏多震荡 | 涨。昨日国内豆粕小幅高开收涨。后续仍需关注南美大豆产量及质量情况能否带来 | | | | 更多的提振。 | | | | 现货可售货源偏紧、进口菜粕多以 3-5 月远月报价为主，缺乏可即时成交的现货货 | | 菜粕 | 短期震荡 | 源支撑，市场整体成交持续清淡。库存供应偏低暂限制菜粕下调空间，叠加 3 月 9 | | ★ | | 日加拿大菜籽反倾销终裁结果尚未公布，消费淡季下，菜粕预计暂跟随豆粕走势为 | | | | 主。昨日菜粕现货价格环比大幅下跌，拖累菜粕收跌。 | | | | 马棕榈油本月出口数据疲软，加上国内棕榈油由于 2 月国内买船偏高，昨日棕榈油 | | 棕榈油 | 震荡整理 | 收跌，维持偏弱运行。但美生柴乐观预期以及国内远月采购需求依然存在，或限制 | | ★ | | 棕榈油下跌空间。关注马盘后续出口 ...

2026年02月27日 国泰君安期货商品研究晨报-农产品 观点与策略 | 棕榈油：减产兑现，暂持逢低做多思路 | 2 | | --- | --- | | 豆油：美国生柴政策逐步落地，美豆油偏强表现 | 2 | | 豆粕：隔夜美豆微跌，连粕或震荡 | 4 | | 豆一：现货稳定，盘面偏强 | 4 | | 玉米：震荡偏强 | 6 | | 白糖：涨价情绪蔓延 | 7 | | 棉花：期货出现回调20260227 | 8 | | 鸡蛋：弱势震荡 | 10 | | 生猪：盘面提前交易累库，但淡季去库难度大 | 11 | | 花生：震荡运行 | 12 | 国 泰 君 安 期 货 研 究 所 请务必阅读正文之后的免责条款部分 1 期货研究 李隽钰 投资咨询从业资格号：Z0021380 lijunyu@gtht.com 【基本面跟踪】 油脂基本面数据 | | 棕榈油主力 | 单 位 元/吨 | 收盘价 (日盘） | 涨跌幅 -1.51% | 收盘价 （夜盘） | 涨跌幅 0.55% | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | 豆油主力 | 元/吨 | 8,714 8,19 ...

行业 油脂 日期 2026 年 2 月 27 日 研究员：余兰兰 021-60635732 yulanlan@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F0301101 研究员：林贞磊 021-60635740 linzhenlei@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F3055047 研究员：王海峰 021-60635727 wanghaifeng@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F0230741 研究员：洪辰亮 021-60635572 hongchenliang@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F3076808 每日报告 一、行情回顾与操作建议 | | | | 表1：行情回顾 | | --- | 数据来源：Wind，建信期货研究发展部 华南三菜 2-3 月：05+400，华南三菜 5-6 月：05+130，华南三菜 6-7 月：05+100。 华东市场豆油基差价格：一豆：现货：Y05+370；远月价格：05+360（3 月）；05+230 （5-7）；09+260（6-9）；三级豆油：05+330；脱胶毛豆油：3-5 月 05+1 ...

菜籽系产业日报 2026-02-26 | 项目类别 | 数据指标 | 最新 | 环比 数据指标 | 最新 | 环比 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | 期货收盘价(活跃合约):菜籽油(日,元/吨) | 9185 | -59 期货收盘价(活跃合约):菜籽粕(日,元/吨) | 2296 | -16 | | 期货市场 | 菜油月间差(5-9):(日,元/吨) | 21 | 2 菜粕月间价差(5-9)(日,元/吨) | -65 | -13 | | | 主力合约持仓量:菜油(日,手) | 251806 | -6923 主力合约持仓量:菜粕(日,手) | 904520 | 36518 | | | 期货前20名持仓:净买单量:菜油(日,手) | -20883 | -8971 期货前20名持仓:净买单量:菜粕(日,手) | -223328 | -29725 | | | 仓单数量:菜油(日,张) | 625 | 0 仓单数量:菜粕(日,张) | 0 | 0 | | | 期货收盘价(活跃):ICE油菜籽(日,加元/吨) | 690.4 | -1.3 期货收盘价(活跃合约):油菜 ...

5、据外媒报道，根据马来西亚棕榈油委员会（MPOC）的数据，供应收紧、需求改善以及美国大豆油 价格走稳，可能在三月将支持棕榈油价格在每吨4,000至4,300令吉之间。然而，委员会指出，全球大豆 供应充足和中国大豆油出口增长可能限制涨幅。 一、【市场关注】 1、南部半岛棕榈油压榨商协会（SPPOMA）数据显示，2026年2月1-20日马来西亚棕榈油单产环比上月 同期减少23.82%，出油率环比上月同期增长0.3%，产量环比上月同期减少22.24%。 2、据马来西亚独立检验机构AmSpec，马来西亚2月1-25日棕榈油出口量为922649吨，较上月同期出口 的1099033吨减少16.05%。 3、据马来西亚棕榈油协会（MPOA）发布的数据，马来西亚2月1-20日棕榈油产量预估减少12.29%，其 中马来半岛减少10.74%，沙巴减少15.23%，沙捞越减少11.20%，婆罗洲减少14.19%。 4、据外媒报道，2月25日（周三），印尼敦促欧盟立即遵守去年世贸组织（WTO）专家组就棕榈油争 端作出的裁决，以恢复印尼棕榈油产品的市场准入。贸易部长Budi Santoso表示，周二（2月24日）是欧 盟在专家组裁决 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The soybean meal is expected to maintain a volatile and slightly stronger trend after the Spring Festival due to factors such as slow import procurement, logistics congestion in Brazil, and policy uncertainty [5][6] - The palm oil futures price may remain in a relatively stronger operating pattern after the Spring Festival, relying on external factors like the rise of soybean oil and crude oil [7] 3. Summary by Variety 3.1 Soybean Meal (M) - **Price Trend**: Short - term: volatile; Medium - term: volatile; Intraday: volatile and slightly stronger; Reference view: volatile and slightly stronger [5] - **Core Logic**: Slow import procurement of domestic soybeans, logistics congestion in central Brazil delaying the arrival of low - cost soybeans, uncertain soybean import cost due to policy changes, and short - term supply shortage after the Spring Festival [5][6] 3.2 Palm Oil (P) - **Price Trend**: Short - term: volatile; Medium - term: volatile; Intraday: strong; Reference view: strong [5] - **Core Logic**: During the holiday, the rise of US soybean oil due to strong bio - fuel demand and the increase of international crude oil to a six - month high pushed up the palm oil futures price. It lacks independent upward drive and depends on external factors [7]