Industry Overview - The core logic supporting the surge in aluminum prices is a tight balance between supply and demand, with domestic electrolytic aluminum production capacity reaching 44.46 million tons, nearing the 45 million tons capacity ceiling, and only an estimated 550,000 tons of new capacity expected by 2026 [1] - On the supply side, projects in Indonesia and India are experiencing slow capacity release due to power and political factors, with an expected annual increase of only 1.3 million tons [1] - Demand is being driven by the accelerated "aluminum replacing copper" trend in the air conditioning and home appliance sectors, as well as new demand from emerging fields such as AI and energy storage [1] Company Insights - Xinjiang Zhonghe's main products include high-purity aluminum, electronic aluminum foil, electrode foil, aluminum products, and alloy products, with a market share of approximately 40% for high-purity aluminum [3] - China Aluminum has the largest alumina production capacity in the world [4]

1月2日，中指研究院发布的房地产市场报告显示，2025年全国房地产市场整体延续调整态势，核心城市 二手房在"以价换量"下维持稳定规模，改善性需求成为新房市场核心支撑。该机构认为，叠加2025年年 末北京政策优化及增值税减免等新政落地，预计2026年相关政策将继续靠前发力，加快稳地产。 另以深圳为例，据乐有家研究中心监测，自2025年3月以来，深圳二手房录得量连续10个月超5000套， 其中3月小阳春和12月翘尾创下2个小高峰，分别为7703套，6613套。 此外，据克而瑞数据，成都、杭州、天津、西安、武汉、南京等核心强二线城市二手房市场也走出了内 生驱动下的"独立行情"，凭借"产业-人口"正循环支撑展现出强大的市场内生修复能力，全年成交面积2- 3倍于新房成交规模。 根据机构统计数据，二手房对市场的支撑作用正在进一步凸显。2025年，30城二手住宅成交套数占新房 及二手房合计成交量的比重约为65%，较2024年全年提升4个百分点。 从新房市场表现看，改善性住房需求仍为新房市场的重要支撑。根据中指监测数据，2025年以来，北 京、上海、成都、宁波、合肥等城市高总价改善楼盘去化表现良好，带动30城120平方米以上 ...

1月2日，中指研究院发布的房地产市场报告显示，2025年全国房地产市场整体延续调整态势，核心城市 二手房在"以价换量"下维持稳定规模，改善性需求成为新房市场核心支撑。该机构认为，叠加2025年年 末北京政策优化及增值税减免等新政落地，预计2026年相关政策将继续靠前发力，加快稳地产。 根据中指研究院统计数据，2025年，重点30城二手住宅成交约174万套，同比基本持平。其中，一季度 市场保持较高活跃度，30城二手住宅成交套数同比增长25%，二季度市场有所降温，同比增幅收窄，9 月二手房市场热度有所修复，重点城市二手住宅成交量同比增长13%，带动三季度同比小幅增长1%， 四季度月均成交量相比三季度有所回落，但"以价换量"下仍维持稳定规模。 从新房市场表现看，改善性住房需求仍为新房市场的重要支撑。根据中指监测数据，2025年以来，北 京、上海、成都、宁波、合肥等城市高总价改善楼盘去化表现良好，带动30城120平方米以上户型新房 成交占比持续提升，其中120-144平方米户型占比超30%，改善需求成为新房市场供求主力。具体城市 来看，与2024年同期相比，2025年1-11月，30个代表城市中，20个城市120-1 ...

中新社北京1月1日电 (记者庞无忌)中国主要城市新房与二手房价格分化的走势持续到2025年年末。 中指研究院2026年1月1日发布的数据显示，2025年12月份，全国100个城市新建住宅平均价格为每平方 米17084元(人民币，下同)，环比上涨0.28%；同比上涨2.58%。当月，100个城市二手住宅平均价格为每 平方米13016元，环比下跌0.97%；同比下跌8.36%。 中指研究院分析称，2026年是"十五五"开局之年，也是稳地产的关键一年，相关政策有望靠前发力。北 上深等核心城市限制性政策有望继续优化，城中村改造货币化安置、房贷利率调价、购房补贴加力等具 备发力空间。从供给端来看，去年土地市场已在"缩量提质"，各地"好房子"的建设标准也在不断完善， 后续有望继续通过优质供给激发改善性需求。(完) （文章来源：中国新闻网） 2025年12月，在新建住宅方面，深圳、北京、上海、南京等城市均有高端改善性项目入市，带动百城新 房价格环比结构性上涨。二手住宅方面，二手房挂牌量仍在高位，房价继续调整。 今年中国楼市怎么走？2025年12月召开的中央经济工作会议定调"着力稳定房地产市场"。当月，多项房 地产相关政策出 ...

Core Viewpoint - The recent learning and communication of the Central Economic Work Conference's spirit by various departments and regions is an important window for tracking the implementation of the conference's spirit, revealing more details and actionable measures [2] Group 1: Policy Implementation - Various departments are focusing on the "stability while seeking progress, improving quality and efficiency" principle, with clear directions and highlighted priorities such as expanding domestic demand, strengthening technology, promoting reform, and stabilizing real estate [3][5] - The central government is expected to continue "leveraging" with specific scales to be determined at the 2026 National Two Sessions, emphasizing proactive measures and reasonable acceleration of fund disbursement [4][6] - Departments are prioritizing support for expanding domestic demand, utilizing various funds, and continuing to support "two new" and "two heavy" initiatives, including fostering trillion-level new consumption growth points [6][7] Group 2: Financial and Monetary Policies - The Ministry of Finance and the central bank are maintaining a "more proactive fiscal policy" and "moderately loose monetary policy," with a focus on maintaining necessary fiscal deficits and debt levels [6][8] - The central bank may consider lowering reserve requirements and interest rates in the first quarter of 2026, along with introducing more structural tools [2][4] - There is an emphasis on accelerating fiscal spending and issuing special bonds to support consumption and investment [6][7] Group 3: Industry and Innovation - There is a strong focus on industrial transformation, self-control, and innovation leadership, with initiatives to promote technology finance and the construction of international technology innovation centers in key regions [7][8] - The government is pushing for reforms to create a unified market, enhance the development of the private economy, and deepen state-owned enterprise reforms [8][9] Group 4: Risk Management - The financial system is focused on preventing risks, particularly in the real estate sector, while ensuring support for both residents and real estate companies [9][10] - Measures are being taken to stabilize the stock market and promote long-term investments, including accelerating reforms in the Sci-Tech Innovation Board and piloting commercial real estate REITs [10][11] Group 5: Local Implementation - Various regions are adapting the central economic work conference's spirit to their local contexts, emphasizing proactive measures and specific actionable tasks, with a focus on ensuring a good start for the 14th Five-Year Plan [13][14] - Local governments are expected to detail their plans and measures in the upcoming local two sessions in January 2026, with a strong emphasis on innovation and openness [13][14]

Core Viewpoint - The recent learning and dissemination of the Central Economic Work Conference's spirit by various departments and regions is a crucial window for tracking the implementation of the conference's directives, revealing more details and actionable measures. There are several highlights and new proposals, including a focus on proactive measures, accelerating fund disbursement, supporting new consumption growth points, and emphasizing real and substantial growth without exaggeration [2][3][11]. Group 1: Overall Direction - All parties are refining their deployment around the Central Economic Work Conference's principle of "seeking progress while maintaining stability and improving quality and efficiency," with clear directions and highlighted priorities such as expanding domestic demand, strengthening technology, promoting reform, and stabilizing real estate [3][11]. - The emphasis is on policies that "act proactively" to ensure a good start to the year [3][11]. Group 2: Departmental Deployment - Each department has made detailed deployments based on their functional positioning, with the Central Financial Office providing the most comprehensive interpretation of the conference's spirit, revealing specific tasks and details [4][12]. - Signal 1: The continuation of "central leverage" is confirmed, with specific scales to be determined at the 2026 National Two Sessions, emphasizing proactive measures and reasonable acceleration of fund disbursement [4][12]. - Signal 2: Multiple departments will prioritize expanding domestic demand, utilizing various funds, and supporting "two new" and "two heavy" projects, with new focuses on cultivating trillion-level new consumption growth points and increasing investment in consumption infrastructure and livelihood projects [4][12][13]. Group 3: Industry Focus - Signal 3: There is a strong focus on industrial transformation, self-control, and innovation leadership, promoting the expansion and efficiency of technology finance, particularly in the Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei and Yangtze River Delta regions [5][14]. - Signal 4: The emphasis on reform includes advancing a unified market, combating "involution," and stabilizing the private sector, with more details on fiscal and tax reforms to be discussed in the upcoming National Fiscal Work Conference [6][15]. Group 4: Risk Management and Market Stability - Signal 6: There is a strict adherence to the "no explosion" bottom line for risk prevention, balancing the needs of residents and real estate companies, and reiterating the principles for debt resolution while increasing financial and fiscal support [8][17]. - Signal 7: Efforts to stabilize the stock market will continue, promoting the narrative of the Chinese stock market and accelerating reforms in the Sci-Tech Innovation Board and commercial real estate REITs [9][18]. Group 5: Local Implementation - Many regions have begun to learn and convey the spirit of the Central Economic Work Conference, tailoring key tasks to local conditions, with a focus on proactive measures and concrete actions, particularly in the lead-up to the January 2026 local two sessions [10][23]. - Localities like Zhejiang and Hainan are emphasizing innovation and openness, respectively, while ensuring that actionable measures are taken to support economic growth [10][23][24].

Group 1: Policy Implementation - Various departments are refining their implementation of the Central Economic Work Conference's spirit, focusing on "stability while seeking progress" and "quality improvement" as the main themes[3] - Emphasis on accelerating the disbursement of funds and implementing major projects ahead of schedule to ensure a strong start in 2026[2] - The central government plans to maintain a necessary fiscal deficit and debt scale, with the overall fiscal deficit expected to be similar to that of 2025[4] Group 2: Economic Growth Strategies - Aiming to cultivate new consumption growth points worth trillions, with increased investment in consumer infrastructure and social welfare projects[6] - The government is focusing on expanding domestic demand, supporting "two new" and "two heavy" projects, and implementing the "15th Five-Year Plan" major projects[6] - The central bank may consider lowering reserve requirements and interest rates in the first quarter of 2026 to stimulate economic activity[2] Group 3: Risk Management and Market Stability - A commitment to prevent financial risks, ensuring that no major defaults occur, particularly in the real estate sector[10] - The government is taking measures to stabilize the real estate market while balancing the needs of residents and property companies[10] - Continuous efforts to promote the stock market narrative and attract long-term investments, including reforms in the Sci-Tech Innovation Board and commercial real estate REITs pilot programs[10]

炒股就看金麒麟分析师研报，权威，专业，及时，全面，助您挖掘潜力主题机会！ 海外方面，美国10~11月通胀大幅低于预期，居住分项可能存在低估，12月或有所反弹。从中期视角 看，美国通胀问题已经不是资产交易的主要矛盾，美联储重心更多放在应对K型分化下的弱就业，整体 维持宽松政策立场，市场对明年的降息预期也有所回升。日央行加息落地，此前预期较充分，且日元、 美股情绪不极端，资产反应平淡。 国内方面，11月消费、投资等数据偏弱，显示内需仍待企稳。出口增速回升带动工业生产维持韧性，社 零受国补及"双十一"退坡影响有所走弱、服务业消费相对偏强。11月广义财政支出环比有所改善，地产 链消费及投资端数据继续回落，地产走弱拖累居民信贷，与企业出现一定分化。中央经济工作会议对地 产政策的定调较为积极，"稳地产"政策预期进一步升温。 市场策略方面，债券方面，上周税期资金面平稳，债市对基本面脱敏，机构行为主导市场行情，短端收 益率下行，中长端收益率先上后下，超长端波动加剧。12月以来DR001下限打开、中枢进一步回落，或 说明央行在降息落地前通过实质宽松来降低银行负债成本、支持基本面，25年增长目标基本有望顺利实 现、26年1-2月 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Overweight" rating for the real estate industry [4][5]. Core Insights - The Central Economic Work Conference emphasizes the need to "stabilize real estate," indicating ongoing policy support and the necessity for further actions in 2026 [1][10]. - The report highlights the importance of internal demand, suggesting potential relaxation of housing purchase restrictions in core cities and reforms in the housing provident fund system [2][11]. - The real estate sector is viewed as an early-cycle indicator, with a focus on quality housing and the improvement of the competitive landscape favoring leading state-owned enterprises and select private firms [4][10]. Summary by Sections Central Economic Work Conference Review - The conference reiterates the commitment to stabilize the real estate market, emphasizing inventory reduction and the construction of quality housing [1][10]. - Policies will be tailored to individual cities, focusing on controlling new supply and encouraging the acquisition of existing properties for affordable housing [1][10]. Market Review - The weekly performance of the Shenwan Real Estate Index showed a decline of 2.6%, underperforming the CSI 300 Index by 2.54 percentage points, ranking 28th among 31 Shenwan primary industries [2][15]. - The report notes a significant drop in new home sales, with a 45.3% year-on-year decrease in 30 cities, and a 30% decline in second-hand home sales [3][33]. New and Second-Hand Housing Transactions - New home sales in 30 cities totaled 172.2 million square meters, down 2.5% month-on-month and 45.3% year-on-year [3][28]. - Second-hand home sales in 14 cities reached 195.9 million square meters, reflecting a 2.7% month-on-month increase but a 30% year-on-year decline [33]. Investment Recommendations - The report suggests focusing on real estate-related stocks, particularly in first-tier and select second-tier cities, as these areas are expected to benefit from policy changes and market recovery [4][10]. - Specific companies recommended for investment include Green Town China, China Overseas Development, and Poly Development among others [4].

Group 1 - The A-share market continues to experience reduced trading volume, with a total turnover of 1.55 trillion yuan, indicating a defensive market sentiment [1] - The largest ETF, the SSE 50 ETF, saw a net inflow of 437 million yuan, while the A500 ETF, favored by investors since October 21, recorded a net inflow of 244 million yuan yesterday, totaling 1.087 billion yuan for the week [1] - Industry-themed ETFs are attracting capital, with the gaming ETF and the power grid equipment ETF estimated to have net subscriptions of 57.75 million yuan and 62.39 million yuan respectively, with the latter seeing six consecutive days of inflows [1] Group 2 - The A500 ETF, which balances value and growth, has a latest scale of 21.481 billion yuan and an average daily turnover of 4.185 billion yuan, maintaining its position as the top performer in its category [2] - The SSE 50 ETF, recognized as a blue-chip flagship, has a scale of 178.898 billion yuan and recorded a slight increase of 0.13% [2] - The power grid equipment ETF, which tracks the CSI Power Grid Equipment Index, has a weight of over 60% in ultra-high voltage and more than 19% in controllable nuclear fusion, with a recent net inflow of 832 million yuan over the past 20 days [2]