【环球网财经综合报道】日本新一届政府高层明确要求日本央行暂缓加息，认为应至少等到2026年1月再做决定，以 与即将出台的大规模经济刺激计划协调步调，共同支撑经济复苏。 高盛最新研究指出，美国投资者正在加大对日本股票的投资，外资流入将进一步推高日股，尽管可能会出现短期盘 整。 《南华早报》发文称，美国投资者因日本股市美元计价的强劲表现，尤其是日经225指数大幅上涨约30%，正加快涌入 日本市场，这可能是由于日本的经济刺激政策、科技和人工智能主题的吸引力，以及东京证券交易所和政府的投资者 友好措施；资金流入预示着增长股可能取代价值股成为市场推动力。 但报道也提到，日本交易所集团发布的数据显示，10月下半月，外国投资者现金和期货形式买入了约3.84万亿日元 （250亿美元）的日本股票。尽管如此，考虑到10月底日经指数已进入超买区域，高盛的日本首席股市策略师布鲁斯· 柯克（Bruce Kirk）表示："不会对市场可能的整理感到意外。" ...

Group 1 - LME copper prices increased by $191, or 1.79%, closing at $10,854 per ton, reaching the highest level since October 9 [1][2] - Year-to-date, LME copper has risen by 23.5%, previously hitting a peak of $11,000 per ton on October 9 [4] - Strong economic data from China is driving optimism in copper demand, with expectations of potential additional stimulus policies [4] Group 2 - LME aluminum prices rose by $55.50, or 1.98%, closing at $2,862.50 per ton, marking the highest level since May 2022 [2][4] - Supply concerns are impacting aluminum prices, particularly due to South32's announcement of a suspension at its Mozal smelter in South Africa due to power supply issues [4]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating The report does not explicitly provide an overall industry investment rating. However, based on the individual product outlooks, most products are expected to be in a state of "oscillation" or "oscillation on the weak side," suggesting a relatively cautious view of the energy and chemical industry [3][8][9]. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - China's Q3 economic data is strong, but the weakness in the energy and chemical sector mainly stems from the supply side. The good economic data provides some support to the crude oil market, but the oversupply situation remains unchanged [1]. - The export of chemical products in September generally maintained a good trend, with polyester products performing particularly well. Expanding overseas markets may be the future hope for the chemical industry [2]. - Overall, the energy and chemical industry is still anchored by crude oil and is expected to continue its weak oscillation [3]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Market News and Macroeconomic Situation - China's Q3 GDP increased by 4.8% year - on - year, and the GDP growth rate from January to September was 5.2%. In September, the industrial added value of enterprises above designated size increased by 6.5% year - on - year, and the total retail sales of consumer goods increased by 3% year - on - year. The demand for petroleum in September increased by 6% year - on - year, continuing the positive year - on - year growth since June [1]. - The President of Ukraine stated that the Russia - Ukraine conflict will not end soon, but the pre - conditions for peace have emerged. Russia's oil transportation to India continues [8]. 3.2 Product - Specific Analysis 3.2.1 Crude Oil - **Viewpoint**: Macroeconomic factors disrupt the rhythm, and the fundamentals are continuously under pressure. - **Main Logic**: Supply is in an increasing phase dominated by the high - growth rate of OPEC+ production. Later, there will be pressure on accelerated crude oil inventory accumulation due to the peak and decline of refinery operations. Although China's inventory has decreased recently, overseas and sea - borne inventories have increased, and the inventory accumulation pressure is still being realized. The fundamental pressure persists, the geopolitical support is weakening marginally, and macro - risks are fluctuating. Oil prices are expected to continue their weak oscillation. If concerns about tariffs ease or there are temporary geopolitical risks, oil prices may rebound but the downward trend is difficult to reverse [8]. 3.2.2 Asphalt - **Viewpoint**: The asphalt futures price is testing the 3200 resistance level. - **Main Logic**: OPEC+ will continue to increase production in November, Saudi Arabia has lowered the export discount to Asia, the Middle East situation has cooled, the geopolitical premium has declined, and the positive impact of China - US negotiations remains. In the short term, crude oil has entered an oscillation mode, and asphalt futures prices will follow the oscillation of crude oil. The asphalt spot price has been continuously falling, the asphalt - fuel oil price difference is expected to continue to decline, the asphalt production plan in October has increased by 19% year - on - year, the supply shortage problem has been resolved, and the driving force supporting the high premium of asphalt has significantly weakened. The pricing power of asphalt futures is expected to return to Shandong. Under the background of negative growth in transportation fixed - asset investment, the pressure on asphalt inventory accumulation is still high. Currently, asphalt is still overvalued compared to crude oil, rebar, low - sulfur fuel oil, and high - sulfur fuel oil, and the overvalued premium is starting to decline [9]. 3.2.3 Fuel Oil - **High - Sulfur Fuel Oil** - **Viewpoint**: The fuel oil futures price has entered an oscillation mode. - **Main Logic**: OPEC+ will continue to increase production in November, Saudi Arabia has lowered the export discount to Asia, the Middle East situation has cooled. Among the three driving forces supporting high - sulfur fuel oil (the Russia - Ukraine conflict, refinery procurement, and the Palestine - Israel conflict), the Palestine - Israel conflict and the Russia - US call have a negative impact on high - sulfur fuel oil. In the short term, the fuel oil futures price will follow the oscillation of crude oil. As refinery operations increase, the demand for fuel oil processing by refineries gradually increases, but the demand for gasoline in the US is weak, the demand for residue processing is sluggish, and the peak power - generation season in the Middle East is coming to an end, so the demand for fuel oil is still weak [9]. - **Low - Sulfur Fuel Oil** - **Viewpoint**: Low - sulfur fuel oil follows the oscillation of crude oil. - **Main Logic**: Low - sulfur fuel oil has declined following crude oil, and the 3500 resistance level is effective in the short term. Low - sulfur fuel oil has strong product attributes and is facing negative factors such as a decline in shipping demand, substitution by green energy, and substitution by high - sulfur fuel oil. It is undervalued and is expected to follow the movement of crude oil. Fundamentally, the reduction of export tax rebates for refined oil products in China and the cancellation of export tax rebates for UCO have increased the supply pressure of refined oil products in China. The pressure to reduce oil and increase chemicals is likely to be transmitted to low - sulfur fuel oil, which is facing a trend of increased supply and decreased demand and may maintain a low - valuation operation [11]. 3.2.4 Chemical Products - **PX** - **Viewpoint**: Cost drags down the absolute price, but the processing margin has been repaired due to the improvement in supply - demand on a month - on - month basis. - **Main Logic**: International oil prices are generally oscillating weakly, and the cost support is weak. There is no obvious positive support from its own supply - demand, and the marginal changes in supply - demand are limited. The import volume of PX in September remained stable with narrow fluctuations. Under the situation of strong supply and demand of PX, and with the expected commissioning of PTA, there is some support for downstream demand, and the downward space for the processing margin is limited [12]. - **PTA** - **Viewpoint**: Under the expectation of new plant commissioning and restart, both the basis and the processing margin are under pressure. - **Main Logic**: The upstream cost support is average, the atmosphere in the chemical product market is cold, and PTA follows the cost to oscillate and decline. Fundamentally, supply is increasing while demand is stable. The new Fengming plant is about to be commissioned, so there is some supply pressure. The downstream polyester demand is stable, and there is more speculative replenishment at low prices. Polyester factories have enough space to offer promotions after profit repair, and the sales volume has increased slightly. The overall price mainly fluctuates following the upstream and macro - economic sentiment [12]. - **Short - Fiber** - **Viewpoint**: After the profit improvement, there is more room for profit to promote sales, the inventory has decreased on a month - on - month basis, and the support for the low processing margin has increased. - **Main Logic**: The upstream polymerization cost is not good, and the short - fiber price has declined following the cost. In terms of the supply - demand pattern, short - fiber is still generally stronger than the upstream. There is still support at the low processing margin. After the weather turns cold, orders are being placed smoothly, and the export data is strong. There is no expectation of inventory accumulation in the short - fiber industry in the short term, and there is support for demand at the end of the peak season [21]. - **Bottle Chips** - **Viewpoint**: There is not much positive support from the fundamentals, and the low price stimulates the increase in speculative replenishment demand. - **Main Logic**: The upstream polymerization cost is average, and the bottle - chip price has declined following the cost. The spot processing margin has slightly decreased. The export data of polyester bottle chips in September was average, showing a decline compared to August. The demand is in the off - season, and there is no obvious driving force for supply - demand [22]. - **Styrene** - **Viewpoint**: Crude oil is weak and inventory continues to accumulate, and styrene resumes its downward trend. - **Main Logic**: The market sentiment for pure benzene in the future is still pessimistic. With styrene's own profit at a low level, the number of maintenance operations has increased, and the supply - demand situation has slightly improved. However, the biggest current pressure is the high port inventory. As the end - of - year seasonal inventory accumulation period approaches, the concern about over - inventory persists, dragging down the performance of the industrial chain prices [17]. - **Methanol** - **Viewpoint**: The coal end provides slight support, and methanol is expected to oscillate widely. - **Main Logic**: On October 20, the methanol futures price oscillated and may continue in the short term. The production enterprises are offering discounts to sell, and the downstream purchases on demand. The price is weakly declining. The port inventory of methanol is still at a relatively high level, but considering the high probability of disturbances from Iran approaching winter, methanol still has value for long - position investment at low prices. However, it is restricted by the overall weak sentiment in the energy and chemical industry, and the weakness of downstream olefins also limits the upward space of methanol. Therefore, it is advisable to view it as oscillating in the short term [26]. - **Urea** - **Viewpoint**: The price support of individual spot goods has weakened, and the urea futures price is continuously under pressure. - **Main Logic**: On October 20, the mainstream spot prices of urea in Shandong and Hebei declined, and the downstream's follow - up purchases were cautious. Fundamentally, both supply and demand have weakened to a certain extent. The operation rate is at a relatively low level, and the agricultural demand has not improved. The pattern of strong supply and weak demand remains unchanged, and there is no effective positive support, so the futures price shows a narrow - range oscillation [27]. - **Ethylene Glycol (EG)** - **Viewpoint**: There is a lack of substantial positive factors, and it is in a low - level range adjustment without fundamental driving forces. - **Main Logic**: The overall atmosphere in the chemical product market is cold, and ethylene glycol oscillates and declines. Fundamentally, supply is increasing while demand is stable. The operation rate of ethylene glycol is at a high level, and multiple integrated plants have restarted. Although there will be maintenance operations at Shell and Fulian plants later, they are all short - term shutdowns with limited impact. The port inventory continues to accumulate gradually, and the price is still under pressure under the expectation of weakening supply - demand [18]. - **Plastic (LLDPE)** - **Viewpoint**: The oil price is still weak, and plastic oscillates on the weak side. - **Main Logic**: The oil price is still weak, the fundamental pressure persists, the geopolitical support is weakening marginally, and the macro - economic expectation is constantly fluctuating. The indication of the oil price is still pessimistic. The oil price has a limited impact on the expected US production next year, and it is still in the downward - seeking bottom stage. If there are positive macro - economic and geopolitical factors, it will rebound, but the downward trend is difficult to reverse. The fundamental support for plastic itself is still limited. It is now in the second half of the "Golden September and Silver October" period. As the peak season fades, the upstream and mid - stream still have the intention to reduce inventory at high prices, which will suppress the upward space of the price. The profit support is limited. The profit of oil - based refineries is stable under the weak oil price, the coal - based profit has slightly declined, and the profit of gas - based ethane is still good. In the short term, the futures price has slightly stabilized near the previous low, and the support strength should be monitored [31]. - **PP** - **Viewpoint**: The weakness of the oil price continues, and PP oscillates on the weak side. - **Main Logic**: The oil price oscillates weakly, the fundamental pressure persists, the geopolitical support is weakening marginally, and the macro - economic expectation is constantly fluctuating. The indication of the oil price is still pessimistic. The oil price has a limited impact on the expected US production next year, and it is still in the downward - seeking bottom stage. If there are positive macro - economic and geopolitical factors, it will rebound, but the downward trend is difficult to reverse. The fundamental support for PP itself is still limited. Currently, the production continues to increase year - on - year, but the demand support is limited, and the high - level inventory will still suppress the price performance. The profit support is limited. The profit of oil - based refineries is stable under the weak oil price, the coal - based profit has slightly declined, and the profit of gas - based ethane is still good. PP has slightly stabilized near 6600, and the focus of subsequent attention is the change in maintenance operations [32]. - **PVC** - **Viewpoint**: It has a low valuation and weak expectations, and PVC oscillates. - **Main Logic**: At the macro - level, the disturbance of China - US tariffs has resurfaced, and attention should be paid to the negotiations between the two sides at the APEC meeting. At the micro - level, the fundamentals of PVC are under pressure, and the cost is stable. Specifically, the autumn maintenance of upstream plants increased in mid - October, so the PVC production will decline; the downstream operation has recovered stage by stage, and only the low - price purchases have increased; the export order signing of PVC has improved; the operation rate of calcium carbide has decreased, and the number of PVC maintenance operations has increased, so the calcium carbide price is weakly stable; there coexist the marginal production reduction of alumina plants and the stockpiling for new plant commissioning, and the caustic soda spot may fluctuate narrowly. The static cost of PVC is 5190 yuan/ton, and the dynamic cost is expected to remain stable [35]. - **Caustic Soda** - **Viewpoint**: The spot price is stable, and the futures price oscillates. - **Main Logic**: At the macro - level, the disturbance of China - US tariffs has resurfaced, and attention should be paid to the negotiations between the two sides at the APEC meeting. At the micro - level, the medium - and long - term demand growth for caustic soda may be limited, and the production may also increase. The spot price may oscillate narrowly, manifested as: the alumina market remains in surplus, and the industry profit is poor. Recently, marginal plants have started to reduce production; the procurement by Wenfeng has relieved the pressure on 32% caustic soda in Shandong, but the caustic soda receipt volume of Weiqiao is equal to its daily consumption, and the caustic soda inventory of Weiqiao is high; the commissioning of a 4.8 - million - ton alumina plant in Guangxi in 2026 will boost the demand for caustic soda, and some factories have issued caustic soda procurement tenders; the non - aluminum operation rate is stable, and the replenishment intention is not high, and the operation rate will decline from November to December; the production of caustic soda in late October is not high, and the production will increase after the end of maintenance and new plant commissioning in the future [36]. 3.3 Product Data Monitoring - **Inter - period Spread**: The report provides the inter - period spreads of various products such as Brent, Dubai, PX, PTA, MEG, etc., along with their changes [38]. - **Basis and Warehouse Receipts**: The basis and warehouse receipts of products like asphalt, high - sulfur fuel oil, low - sulfur fuel oil, etc., are presented, as well as their changes [39]. - **Inter - product Spread**: The inter - product spreads between different products such as 1 - month PP - 3MA, 1 - month TA - EG, etc., are given, along with their changes [41].

Economic Growth - China's GDP growth rate for Q3 2023 is 4.8%, slightly above market expectations of 4.7%[2] - Nominal GDP growth rate decreased by 0.2 percentage points to 3.7%[2] - Q3 quarter-on-quarter economic growth accelerated by 0.1 percentage points to 1.1%, exceeding the market expectation of 0.8%[2] Domestic Demand - September retail sales growth fell for the fourth consecutive month, decreasing from 3.4% in August to 3.0%[3] - Fixed asset investment showed a significant decline, turning negative at -0.5%, below the market expectation of 0.1%[5] - Cumulative urban residents' disposable income growth rate decreased by 0.3 percentage points to 4.4%[2] Industrial Production - Industrial production value growth rebounded by 1.3 percentage points to 6.5%, surpassing the market expectation of 5.0%[5] - Manufacturing production growth in September increased by 1.6 percentage points to 7.3%[5] External Trade - Exports in September rebounded by 3.9 percentage points to 8.3%, with a trade surplus maintained above $90 billion[7] - The trade conflict with the U.S. poses significant risks, with a 40% chance of renewed tariffs on Chinese goods by November 1[8] Policy Outlook - Limited economic stimulus measures are expected in Q4, with a forecasted GDP growth of around 5% for the year[9] - Monetary policy predictions include a 50 basis point reserve requirement ratio cut and a 10-20 basis point interest rate reduction[10]

智通财经APP获悉，日本农业大臣、改革派代表人物小泉进次郎宣布，将参加执政党自民党的总裁竞 选。目前自民党正急于寻找一位能扭转局势、引领国家发展的领导人，以接替即将卸任的党首。 此前，自民党在两次全国性选举中接连受挫，导致其领导的执政联盟失去了国会参众两院的多数席位。 当前，自民党面临关键抉择：是争取不满现状的右翼选民支持，还是重塑自身形象，以更年轻、更具活 力的姿态着眼未来发展。 "尽管此次总裁选举被称作'相当于解散政党的重启契机'，但仍能看到旧自民党的影子。"小林鹰之直 言，"这样的选举无法改变自民党。我是以一种深切的危机感来参与此次竞选的，甚至认为这可能是自 民党最后的机会。" 小泉进次郎可能会被视为能为自民党带来代际变革的候选人。这位44岁的政客此前曾参与过总裁竞选， 当时便以"改革"为核心竞选主张。在担任农业大臣期间，他也展现出推动变革的决心：为降低大米价 格、推广规模化农业，即便面临激怒农民及农村选民的风险，仍坚持推进相关政策。 在此次总裁选举中，小泉进次郎大概率将成为热门候选人之一，另一位热门人选则是支持经济刺激政策 的右翼政客高市早苗。 此前，高市早苗曾公开批评日本央行的加息举措，部分市场人士 ...

Group 1 - The 10-year government bond yield in China rose to 1.87% on September 11, reaching a five-month high, driven by market expectations of additional economic stimulus policies [2][4] - The increase in bond yields indicates a sell-off in the bond market, as investors anticipate a further rise in the stock market [2][4] - The 30-year government bond yield also reached 2.2%, marking a six-month high, reflecting growing concerns about short-term trading restrictions on bonds [4] Group 2 - The adjustment plan for investment fund fees announced by the China Securities Regulatory Commission on September 5 has heightened market fears regarding the suppression of short-term bond trading [4] - The chief economist for emerging markets at SMBC Nikko Securities noted that with the ongoing downturn in the real estate sector, there is a rising interest in stocks as an investment option, suggesting a strong possibility of further interest rate increases supported by stock market gains [4]

Market Overview - The A-share market has rapidly risen, reaching a 10-year high, with the index stabilizing above 3800 points and approaching 3900 and 4000 points, indicating strong market participation and a healthy "volume-price rise" pattern [1] - The current bull market is considered to be in the nurturing phase, driven by valuation recovery, with the potential for further upward movement being limited as the market approaches historical highs [1] Valuation Metrics - The current price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio of the Shanghai Composite Index is 16.57, which is at the 100% historical percentile for the past 3 years, and the price-to-book (P/B) ratio is 1.51, also at high historical percentiles [1] - The asymmetry in upward and downward momentum suggests a higher risk of correction as valuations continue to recover [1] Economic Drivers - The core of the long-term upward trend in the A-share market relies on substantial improvements in corporate profitability, which is currently under pressure due to weak macroeconomic demand and ongoing adjustments in the real estate sector [9] - Domestic economic stimulus policies and the recovery of overseas demand are crucial for driving demand-side improvements, while supply-side efforts must focus on optimizing industrial structures and eliminating excess capacity [9] Policy Impact - Recent macroeconomic policies have shown effectiveness, with GDP growth reaching 5.3% year-on-year, surpassing the annual target of 5% [11] - Policy measures include adjustments in real estate regulations and direct subsidies to households, aimed at transitioning the economy towards consumption and service-driven growth [11] Global Economic Context - The Federal Reserve's dovish stance and anticipated interest rate cuts in major economies are expected to support a recovery in manufacturing, which is sensitive to financing costs [12] - The potential for increased export demand from overseas markets could provide significant support for the profitability of A-share listed companies [12] Supply-Side Developments - The implementation of anti-involution policies is expected to improve profit margins for companies by reducing excessive competition and promoting healthier market dynamics [15] - Historical precedents suggest that supply-side reforms can lead to significant improvements in profitability for key industries [15] Profitability Trends - Recent data indicates signs of improving corporate profitability, with industrial profits showing a narrowing decline and expectations for positive growth in A-share earnings after four years of decline [16] - Non-financial listed companies are projected to see revenue and net profit growth of approximately 1.6% and 8.3%, respectively [16] Investment Strategy - The overall bullish outlook remains, but the market may experience a "three steps forward, one step back" pattern during the nurturing phase of the bull market [19] - Focus on high-growth sectors such as robotics, innovative pharmaceuticals, and artificial intelligence, while also considering cyclical sectors like food and beverage, power equipment, and non-ferrous metals for potential investment opportunities [19]

Core Insights - The Indonesian Ministry of Finance is preparing another stimulus policy to support economic growth during the Christmas and New Year holiday period [1] Group 1 - The new stimulus policy aims to bolster economic activity during the holiday season [1]

Group 1 - The A-share market opened higher but experienced a pullback during the day, with the Shanghai Composite Index slightly rising by 0.17% to 3374.87 points, while other major indices declined [1] - Key sectors that performed well included shipping ports, photovoltaic, banking, hotel and catering, and daily chemicals, while military-related stocks such as aerospace and shipbuilding showed significant adjustments [1] - The overnight US stock market saw substantial gains, with the Dow Jones up 2.81%, S&P 500 up 3.26%, and Nasdaq up 4.35%, contrasting with the decline in Hong Kong stocks, where the Hang Seng Index fell by 1.87% [1] Group 2 - A significant factor affecting the foreign exchange market is the upcoming release of the US April CPI, which may influence expectations regarding the Federal Reserve's interest rate decisions [2] - Due to the reduction in tariff risks, market expectations for a rate cut by the Federal Reserve have shifted, with most market participants now anticipating a potential cut in September rather than July [2] Group 3 - The A-share market's weak performance can be attributed to uncertainties surrounding ongoing tariff negotiations and a potential decrease in expectations for economic stimulus policies, particularly fiscal measures [3] - Investors are advised to maintain a watchful stance and consider adjusting their portfolios to include more tariff-sensitive export stocks, as the overall tariff situation has improved significantly [3]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Neutral" rating for the steel industry and a "Positive" rating for the non-ferrous metals industry, with "Buy" ratings for specific companies including Luoyang Molybdenum, Zhongjin Gold, Shandong Gold, Zijin Mining, and China Aluminum [4]. Core Views - The report highlights that trade talks have provided positive sentiment, leading to a gradual easing of macroeconomic concerns [1]. - In the steel sector, demand may face short-term pressure due to increased rainfall in southern China, but potential economic stimulus policies could stabilize steel prices [3][4]. - For copper, supply tightness is expected due to the shutdown of the Antamina copper mine in Peru, while trade negotiations are improving market sentiment [3][4]. - Aluminum prices are under pressure from weakened downstream demand and adjusted tariffs, leading to expected price fluctuations [3][4]. - Gold's appeal as a safe-haven asset is diminishing due to optimistic trade talks and easing geopolitical tensions, which may put downward pressure on gold prices [3][4]. - The lithium sector is facing oversupply issues, with prices expected to continue declining in the short term [3][4]. Industry Summary Steel - Steel inventory has shifted from decline to increase due to seasonal demand weakness during the May Day holiday, with total steel inventory at 14.73 million tons, a 1.36% increase from the previous week [17][27]. - The production of five major steel products was 8.74 million tons, a 0.22% decrease from the previous week [21]. - The capacity utilization rate for blast furnaces was 92.09% as of May 9 [25]. Copper - The LME copper spot price was $9,500 per ton, a 3.06% increase from April 30, while SHFE copper inventory decreased by 31.96% [48]. - The report notes that the copper market is supported by supply constraints and positive macroeconomic sentiment [41][48]. Aluminum - The LME aluminum spot price was $2,400 per ton, a 0.17% decrease from April 30, with SHFE aluminum inventory down by 5.18% [51]. - The report indicates that aluminum prices are expected to fluctuate due to mixed market signals [50][51]. Precious Metals - Gold prices are under pressure, with COMEX gold closing at $3,329.10 per ounce, a 0.91% increase from April 30 [53]. - The report suggests that geopolitical developments are reducing gold's safe-haven appeal [53]. Lithium and New Energy Metals - The price of battery-grade lithium carbonate was 67,500 yuan per ton, a 2.46% decrease from April 30 [57]. - The report anticipates continued price declines in the lithium market due to oversupply [56][57]. Rare Earths and Minor Metals - The price of light rare earth oxide praseodymium-neodymium was 423,000 yuan per ton, a 2.92% increase from April 30 [64].