证券研究报告|公司点评报告 [Table_Date] 2025 年 11 月 23 日 [Table_Title] "十五五"方向确定，当前最佳稳健配置品 种 [Table_Title2] 伊利股份(600887) | [Table_DataInfo] 评级： | 买入 | 股票代码： | 600887 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 上次评级： | 买入 | 52 周最高价/最低价： | 31.12/26.65 | | 目标价格： | | 总市值(亿) | 1,840.68 | | 最新收盘价： | 29.1 | 自由流通市值(亿) | 1,831.53 | | | | 自由流通股数(百万) | 6,293.93 | [Table_Summary] 事件概述 2025 年 11 月 18 日，伊利股份召开以"聚力成长，价值启新"为主题的投资者日活动，明确"十五五"战 略方向，同步发布 2025-2027 年股东回报规划，承诺年度分红比例不低于 75%且每股分红金额不低于 1.22 元 （含税），强化长期投资价值预期。 分析判断 ► 双引擎驱动结构性增长，走价值创新之路 根据伊利微 ...

每经记者｜刘明涛 每经编辑｜彭水萍 上周，全球市场风险偏好下降，美股科技股调整，国内半导体、新能源产业链板块调整幅度较大。 受此影响，每经品牌100指数上周下跌4.45%，以1150.98点报收。不过，在监管部门强调"坚决防止市场 大起大落、急涨急跌"的背景下，市场或不具备持续下跌的基础。 上周主要股指全线下跌 上周，外部风险释放带来指数层面的调整，A股主要股指全线下跌。截至11月21日收盘，上证指数周跌 3.90%，深证成指周跌5.13%，创业板指和科创50指数则分别周跌6.15%和5.54%。每经品牌100指数上周 也出现回调，周跌幅达4.45%，以1150.98点报收，失守1200点大关。 成分股表现方面，中国银行上周上涨8.08%，周K线实现"七连阳"，股价创历史新高，中国石化、伊利 股份、光大银行、建设银行、中国石油以及古井贡酒周涨幅超过2%，跑赢股指。周市值增长方面，中 国银行周市值增长1514.4亿元，市值增长较大，建设银行、中国石油以及中国石化市值增长则在300亿 元以上。 虽然A股主要股指出现大幅调整，但证监会明确将加大制度建设力度，优化上市公司结构、强化风险防 控与投资者保护，护航市场高质 ...

Core Insights - The PP (polypropylene) market is experiencing a bifurcation, with strong demand for packaging materials driven by e-commerce promotions, while traditional sectors like real estate remain weak [1][2][4] - The demand surge during the "Double 11" shopping festival has led to increased orders for BOPP films and thin-walled injection materials, particularly in East and South China [1][2] - Despite the short-term boost from e-commerce, the overall industry remains under pressure due to weak demand in traditional sectors, particularly in pipe materials and plastic weaving [2][5] Demand Dynamics - The demand for PP is characterized by short-term concentration and sector-specific growth, primarily benefiting packaging materials related to daily retail [2][3] - After the "Double 11" event, orders for packaging PP (BOPP/CPP) quickly declined, leading to increased inventory levels and reduced operating rates in film factories [2][4] - The only exception to the overall demand weakness is in the thin-walled injection sector, where strong demand from food delivery and instant retail keeps prices stable [2][3] Supply and Production - The production capacity for BOPP and CPP is expected to increase by 4% and 14.3% respectively, with significant growth in high-end specialty materials [2][3] - However, the overall supply remains pressured by new capacity releases, such as the 400,000 tons from Guangxi Petrochemical, which contributes to a loose supply environment [4][5] - The market is currently facing a supply surplus, which is expected to continue impacting prices negatively [5] Market Outlook - The fourth quarter outlook suggests a mix of local opportunities and overall pressures, with potential support from upcoming e-commerce events and high-end modified PP demand driven by the new energy vehicle market [4] - The key factors influencing future PP futures prices include the actual demand realization during peak shopping seasons, potential production cuts due to profit losses, and policy impacts on supply and consumption [4] - The market is likely to experience range-bound fluctuations in the fourth quarter, with insufficient momentum for a significant upward trend [4][5]

Core Insights - The event held on November 18 in Beijing showcased Yili's operational achievements, innovative technologies, and future strategic plans, prompting investors to rethink the industry's growth prospects and redefine Yili's value boundaries [1] Industry Transition - The Chinese dairy industry has shifted from a phase of "quantity growth" to a new stage of "quality enhancement," where "structural growth" is replacing "universal growth" [3] - Three main structural growth opportunities identified include: 1. Increasing demand for dairy products driven by rising health awareness among the population 2. Upgrading demand in high-tier cities leading to diversified growth 3. Significant potential in differentiated product categories, particularly in adult nutrition, cheese, B2B, and deep processing of dairy products, with the adult nutrition market expected to exceed 300 billion yuan by 2030 [5] Targeting New Markets - Yili is focusing on the silver-haired market, with over 210 million people aged 60 and above in China, projected to exceed 400 million by 2035. This demographic shows a strong demand for health management and quality living, with a nutrition product penetration rate exceeding 36% [6] - Yili has strategically positioned itself in the adult nutrition segment, with its "Xinhui" series of adult milk powder showing strong market competitiveness. The company aims to expand its product matrix into functional health products and high-value segments [8] Deep Processing and Domestic Substitution - The solid dairy product market in China is still in its infancy, with significant growth potential as consumer habits shift from liquid to solid dairy products. Yili plans to develop a hundred billion yuan deep processing segment over the next 5-10 years [10] - Currently, 35% of the domestic consumption of dairy products relies on imports, presenting an opportunity for Yili to focus on domestic substitution in key raw materials [10] International Expansion - Yili's international business has established a clear organizational structure, with operations in Southeast Asia, the Middle East, Europe, Oceania, and the Americas. The company aims to transition from "product export" to "ecosystem establishment" [12] - The company has set ambitious 2030 strategic goals to enhance market share and product value, aiming for a leap from "Asia's first" to "global first" in the dairy industry [12] Shareholder Returns - Yili has a strong track record of shareholder returns, with a total dividend payout of 58.566 billion yuan since its listing in 1996. The company plans to maintain a cash dividend payout ratio of no less than 75% of net profit for the years 2025-2027 [13] - The company is committed to distributing a minimum cash dividend of 1.22 yuan per share (before tax) in 2024, with potential mid-year dividends based on company performance [13] Future Outlook - The chairman of Yili expressed confidence in the dairy industry's growth potential, indicating that the industry has not yet reached its ceiling and that Yili is determined to seize new opportunities for sustained leadership [15]

高盛发表研究报告指，网易第三季业绩逊于预期，但结构性增长仍然不变。网易专注于丰富现有常青游 戏组合，并搭配少量优质新游戏的策略，已开始展现成效。该行相信，网易将能充分发挥其研发实力， 强化海外业务增长；维持网易美股评级160美元，H股目标价250港元。 ...

随着10月份CPI"翻红"，市场的目光又重新聚集在正在复苏的消费市场。作为消费龙头，伊利股份从"乳业巨头"到"全域营养解决方案提供者"的健康嬗 变，引发业内和投资市场关注。 11月18日在北京举办的伊利股份2025年投资者日活动，以"聚力成长·价值启新"为主题，全面展示了伊利的经营成果、创新技术及未来发展思路和战略布 局。同时，也让来自世界各地的投资者重新思考行业发展前景，重新定义伊利的价值边界。 行业从"量增"到"质升" 布局三大结构性增长机会 伊利集团董事长兼总裁潘刚在开场致辞中提到，中国乳业已经从单纯追求增速的"量增"时期，全面进入以多元化、精细化需求为导向的"质升"新阶 段，"结构性增长"正在取代"普适性增长"。 而行业的结构性增长机会主要有三个方面：第一，随着国民健康意识的不断提升，乳制品的需求还会持续释放，这也是行业增长最根本的支撑。第二，高 线城市需求升级推动多元化增长。乳制品已经从基础饮食，全面融入休闲社交、代餐佐餐、健康管理等多元场景。第三，品类差异化赛道潜力巨大。目前 看，差异化核心增长机会主要在成人营养品、奶酪、B2B及乳深加工等领域。预计2030年成人营养品的整体规模将超过3000亿元 ...

Core Viewpoint - The article highlights the transformation of Yili Group from a dairy giant to a comprehensive nutrition solution provider, emphasizing its strategic focus on structural growth opportunities in the dairy industry as consumer demand evolves towards quality and diversity [1][3]. Group 1: Industry Transition - The Chinese dairy industry has shifted from a phase of "quantity growth" to a new stage of "quality enhancement," driven by diversified and refined consumer demands [3]. - Structural growth opportunities in the industry are identified as: increasing health awareness among consumers, demand upgrades in high-tier cities, and significant potential in differentiated product categories [5][6]. Group 2: Targeting New Markets - Yili is focusing on the aging population as a new market for functional nutrition, with over 210 million people aged 60 and above in China, expected to exceed 400 million by 2035 [7]. - The company has established a leading position in the adult nutrition segment, with its "Xinhui" series of adult milk powder holding the top market share for ten consecutive years [9]. Group 3: Industry Chain Upgrades - Yili is transitioning from liquid dairy products to solid dairy products, indicating a significant growth potential in the solid dairy segment [10]. - The deep processing of dairy products in China is still in its infancy, with a reliance on imports for key raw materials, presenting an opportunity for Yili to focus on domestic alternatives [12]. Group 4: International Expansion - Yili's international strategy has evolved from merely exporting products to establishing a comprehensive ecosystem, with a clear organizational structure for its global operations [13][15]. - The company aims to enhance its market share and product value through a dual-circulation model that integrates global resources and markets, with a goal of becoming a global leader in the dairy industry [15]. Group 5: Shareholder Returns - Yili has a strong commitment to shareholder returns, having distributed a total of 58.566 billion yuan in dividends since its listing, with a consistent high dividend payout ratio [18]. - The company has announced a three-year shareholder return plan, ensuring that cash dividends will not be less than 75% of the net profit attributable to shareholders, with a minimum cash dividend of 1.22 yuan per share for 2024 [18].

Core Insights - The "Double 11" shopping festival is transitioning from a focus on explosive growth to a more rational and stable approach, reflecting the maturity and transformation of the Chinese consumer market [1][2][5] Group 1: Sales Performance and Metrics - Major platforms like Tmall, JD, and Douyin have shifted away from reporting total GMV, instead highlighting structural growth and operational efficiency [3][4] - Tmall reported a 40-fold increase in computational power and a 25% improvement in purchasing efficiency, with 70% of sales coming from 88VIP members [3] - JD saw a 40% increase in the number of users and nearly 60% growth in order volume, emphasizing the long-term value of its "super supply chain" [3] - Douyin's sales through live streaming increased by 500%, indicating a strong performance in content-driven commerce [4] Group 2: Consumer Behavior and Market Trends - The extended promotional period has led to a decrease in consumer urgency, with many shoppers feeling indifferent about missing pre-sale opportunities [5] - Consumers are increasingly prioritizing quality and efficiency over price, marking a shift in shopping psychology [5][8] - The rise of instant retail has been significant, with platforms like Meituan showing record sales and user engagement during the festival [4][7] Group 3: Regional Insights - Guangdong province remains the top consumer market, with Shenzhen identified as the city with the highest purchasing power [7] - High-tech and quality lifestyle products saw strong demand in Guangdong, with significant sales growth in categories like digital cameras and air conditioning units [7] - The emergence of new local retail formats is evident, with brands leveraging direct connections with consumers to enhance sales [7]

Core Viewpoint - Abbott reported strong Q2 2025 financial results with total revenue of $11.142 billion, a year-over-year increase of 7.4%, driven by robust performance in medical devices and nutrition segments [1][2]. Financial Highlights - Total revenue reached $11.142 billion, with organic growth of 6.9%, exceeding market expectations [1][2]. - Adjusted EPS for Q2 2025 was $1.26, with full-year guidance raised to $5.10 to $5.20 [3]. - The company expects sales growth of 7.5% to 8% for the full year [3]. Medical Devices Performance - Medical devices segment generated $5.67 billion in revenue, with organic growth of 13.4%, making it the strongest performing segment [4]. - Key areas of growth included structural heart and diabetes management, with notable sales in the heart rhythm management and electrophysiology sectors [5][6]. Nutrition and Diagnostics - Nutrition segment revenue was $2.212 billion, a year-over-year increase of 2.9%, driven by strong growth in adult nutrition products [10]. - Diagnostics segment revenue was $2.173 billion, a slight decline of 1% due to a significant drop in COVID-19 testing sales, but core diagnostics showed growth [8][9]. Pharmaceutical Segment - Established pharmaceuticals revenue was $1.383 billion, with organic growth of 6.9%, primarily in emerging markets [12]. Key Developments - Abbott is advancing multiple product developments in cardiovascular interventions and electrophysiology, with significant progress in clinical trials and product registrations [13][15][19]. - The company is focusing on innovative technologies in non-invasive interventions and remote chronic disease management, aligning with market trends [20]. Company Overview - Abbott operates across four major sectors: nutrition, diagnostics, pharmaceuticals, and medical devices, with a strong emphasis on medical technology as a key growth area [21].

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the divergent investment opportunities within the A-share banking sector, highlighting the choice between stable, high-dividend state-owned banks and high-growth regional banks [2][11]. Group 1: Overview of the Banking Sector - The banking industry is experiencing a slowdown in growth, with structural pressures leading to reduced profit margins and slower overall growth rates [3][4]. - Major banks like Industrial and Commercial Bank of China (ICBC) and Shanghai Pudong Development Bank have shown negative revenue growth over the past five years, indicating a challenging environment for traditional banking [3][4]. Group 2: Investment Strategies - For conservative investors, the recommendation is to focus on large state-owned banks, which offer stable dividends and lower risk, providing a reliable cash flow [12]. - For aggressive investors seeking total returns, the focus should be on smaller, high-growth regional banks, which present higher risks but also the potential for significant returns through earnings growth and valuation recovery [13]. - A balanced approach can be taken by combining investments in both large state-owned banks and high-growth regional banks to achieve stability and growth [14]. Group 3: Performance Metrics - Key performance metrics for major banks include: - ICBC: PB of 0.68, TTM dividend yield of 5.87%, and a 5-year profit compound growth of 3.22% [19]. - Chengdu Bank: PB of 0.98, TTM dividend yield of 3.94%, and a 5-year profit compound growth of 18.29% [19]. - Hangzhou Bank: PB of 0.85, TTM dividend yield of 4.27%, and a 5-year profit compound growth of 20.80% [19]. - The article emphasizes the importance of understanding the different growth trajectories and risk profiles of these banks when making investment decisions [18].