Core Insights - The article discusses the expected fluctuations of the RMB exchange rate in 2025 and 2026, highlighting the central bank's effective liquidity management that helps mitigate risks [1] Group 1: 2025 RMB Exchange Rate Outlook - The appreciation of the RMB in 2025 is driven by two main factors: cracks in USD credit and the Federal Reserve's easing measures. However, the appreciation expectation is not straightforward, with significant volatility observed [2] - In April 2025, trade frictions led to a depreciation expectation exceeding 7.5, while the onset of the Fed's rate cut cycle in September brought the appreciation expectation closer to 7.0. This reflects investor uncertainty in a still fragile internal economic environment [2] - A key factor supporting the RMB's appreciation is the reversal of foreign trade enterprises' willingness to settle in RMB. The weakening belief in a strong USD has led to a historic level of cross-border capital inflow, primarily driven by these enterprises [3] Group 2: Central Bank's Management and Policy - The central bank's management of exchange rate controls is described as "brilliant," effectively balancing the optimism of currency holders and the hesitance of currency exchangers. This includes lowering swap market premiums to manage foreign capital inflow and guiding domestic expectations through the central parity rate [4] - The central bank aims to align domestic and foreign pricing expectations, achieving a "three-price unification" where both domestic and foreign asset pricing converge towards the central bank's expectations [4] Group 3: 2026 RMB Exchange Rate Expectations - The article raises the question of whether global easing will continue into 2026, noting a significant "K-shaped" economic divergence in the U.S. This divergence affects high-net-worth individuals and new borrowers differently, impacting credit expansion and overall economic conditions [5] - The central bank's willingness to allow the RMB to break the 7.0 mark is questioned, with indications that it is managing the pace of appreciation through historical low swap premiums. The central bank's focus appears to be on fundamental factors rather than credit-driven factors [6] - The future decoupling of the RMB exchange rate from the USD index is anticipated, with both fundamental and policy support for the RMB to break the 7.0 level. However, the article emphasizes that fundamental changes will be the core variable supporting long-term RMB strength [6]

Group 1 - Precious metal prices generally rose, with COMEX gold futures up 2.83% at $4123.40 per ounce and COMEX silver futures up 4.70% at $50.41 per ounce [1] - The U.S. Senate passed a procedural vote on a temporary funding bill aimed at ending the government shutdown, although a final vote in the Senate and a vote in the House of Representatives are still pending [1] Group 2 - Federal Reserve Governor Milan stated that the government shutdown will not affect his view on the U.S. economy, predicting a 50 basis point rate cut in December [2] - Inflation for durable and personal goods in the U.S. showed its first slowdown in three months in October, indicating increased discounting by retailers [2] - The reopening of the U.S. government is expected to positively impact precious metals due to three main reasons: 1) Fiscal expansion is anticipated to resume; 2) Following data releases, the Fed may consider a rate cut in December; 3) The TGA account may release liquidity again [2] Group 3 - In early trading, both Shanghai gold and silver rose by more than 3% [3]

Government Shutdown Duration and Impact - As of November 9, the U.S. government has been shut down for 40 days, marking a historical record[2] - The shutdown is primarily due to political polarization, with both parties believing it benefits them[2] - It is expected that the government will remain closed for at least another 1-2 weeks, likely reopening before Thanksgiving (November 27)[3] Economic and Employment Effects - The shutdown has resulted in at least 670,000 federal employees being furloughed and approximately 730,000 working without pay[10] - If the shutdown continues until December 1, the total unpaid wages could reach approximately $21 billion[10] - The impact on GDP growth for Q4 2025 is projected to be a reduction of over 1 percentage point, with a rebound expected in Q1 2026[5] Data Release Delays - Key economic data for September and October, including non-farm payrolls and CPI, have been delayed due to the shutdown[4] - If the government reopens in 1-2 weeks, some data may be released shortly thereafter, but the timing remains uncertain[19] - October non-farm payroll data may be published alongside November data in early December[20] Market and Policy Implications - The shutdown has led to a rise in the Treasury General Account (TGA) balance by $62.7 billion, which may tighten liquidity marginally[36] - The Federal Reserve is expected to lower interest rates once in December 2025 and potentially 1-2 more times in June 2026[37] - The reopening of the government is anticipated to alleviate some liquidity pressures in the market[36]

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the recent FOMC meeting in October, highlighting Powell's hawkish stance while also hinting at the possibility of rate cuts by the end of the year, reflecting a complex balance between inflation control and employment concerns [2][6]. Summary by Sections Monetary Policy Shifts - Since late July, Powell has oscillated between focusing on inflation risks and employment concerns, initially emphasizing tighter monetary policy to combat inflation, but later shifting to a more dovish tone due to employment risks [4]. - The September FOMC meeting saw a 25 basis point rate cut, reinforcing expectations for further cuts by the end of the year, with the market pricing in a total of 75 basis points in cuts [4][6]. Divergence Among Committee Members - The October meeting revealed significant internal disagreements among committee members regarding future rate cuts, with a notable 10 to 2 vote split, indicating a lack of consensus on the necessity of further cuts [6][7]. - Powell's role as chair is to unify decision-making, but the increasing difficulty in achieving this consensus is evident, as he aims to manage expectations while mitigating risks associated with potential policy missteps [7]. Employment and Inflation Outlook - Powell expressed cautious optimism about the labor market, citing stable unemployment claims and job vacancies, yet acknowledged that many indicators suggest a weakening employment landscape [8][12]. - Non-official data indicates ongoing employment risks, exacerbated by the government shutdown, which could have prolonged impacts on the labor market [15]. Inflation Dynamics - Powell introduced a new measure, non-tariff core PCE, suggesting that inflation is not deviating significantly from the 2% target, despite acknowledging the potential impact of tariffs on economic dynamics [17]. - The Fed's approach to inflation remains cautious, with Powell emphasizing the need for close monitoring of economic conditions and the effects of potential rate cuts on the real economy [17]. Balance Sheet and Liquidity Considerations - The decision to end the balance sheet reduction was seen as a necessary adjustment, given the tightening liquidity conditions in the market, with the Fed having successfully reduced its balance sheet by 30.3% over 177 weeks [19][21]. - The current environment does not necessitate a return to quantitative easing unless specific liquidity risks arise [21]. AI and Economic Growth - Powell addressed the impact of AI on economic growth, noting that while AI investments are expected to boost GDP, current capital expenditures remain insensitive to interest rates, reflecting a cautious stance on the relationship between AI and economic performance [24].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not mentioned in the provided content 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - This week, the Shanghai lead futures showed a volatile upward trend, with the main contract 2511 of Shanghai lead futures being active but falling 0.41%. After digesting the Fed's interest - rate cut, Shanghai lead generally showed a volatile downward trend [7]. - On the supply side, some primary lead smelting enterprises in certain regions entered the centralized maintenance stage, causing the primary lead output to continue to decline. The raw material market is in a tight - balance state, with lead concentrate processing fees continuously decreasing and mostly sold on a pre - sale basis, increasing the cost for smelters to obtain raw materials and further restricting primary lead output. For recycled lead, affected by environmental inspections and the decline in waste battery recycling efficiency, the release of recycled lead production capacity has slowed down. There is not much inventory of waste batteries in the market, and the arrival of goods at smelters is not good. Enterprises mainly focus on fulfilling long - term orders, and the overall operating rate remains low, continuously restricting recycled lead output. However, with the repair of production profits and the increase in the quantity of imported raw materials, some enterprises have the expectation of resuming production, but it is expected to be in early October, having limited impact on next week's supply. Overall, lead supply shows a stable and rising trend [7]. - On the demand side, lead - acid batteries, as the main consumption area of lead, have relatively stable demand for automobile starting batteries. Although the traditional "Golden September and Silver October" consumption peak season is gradually warming up, in reality, when prices rise, spot transactions are average, and downstream enterprises are still mostly in a wait - and - see state. After large battery enterprises' procurement gradually ended this week before the National Day, small and medium - sized factories are mostly cautious and have low willingness to receive goods. However, the energy - storage demand in emerging fields shows a good trend, making up for the shortage of demand in traditional fields to a certain extent. But overall, the overall demand has not shown an obvious explosive growth and is still in a slow recovery stage [7]. - From the domestic and foreign inventory data, both foreign and domestic lead inventories are falling, and the number of warehouse receipts is also decreasing. The overall inventory decline indicates that demand has driven inventory depletion to a certain extent. The social inventory of domestic lead ingots has declined recently, providing some support for lead prices. However, as the pre - National Day inventory replenishment by downstream enterprises comes to an end, if demand cannot continue to follow up, the subsequent changes in inventory still need to be concerned [7]. - Next week, the Shanghai lead futures market is expected to maintain a high - level volatile pattern. On the supply side, the output of primary lead and recycled lead is difficult to rebound significantly in the short term, providing some support for prices. On the demand side, although the overall performance is average, it will not decline significantly under the background of "Golden September and Silver October" and the drive of emerging energy - storage field demand. The decline in inventory also provides some bottom - line support for prices. It is recommended to build long positions on dips for lead prices [7]. - In terms of operation, it is recommended that the main contract 2511 of Shanghai lead mainly fluctuates upward, with a fluctuation range of 16,800 - 17,300 and a stop - loss range of 16,600 - 17,400. Pay attention to the operation rhythm and risk control [7]. 3. Summary According to the Directory 3.1 Week - on - Week Summary - **Market Review**: This week, the Shanghai lead futures showed a volatile upward trend, and the main contract 2511 of Shanghai lead futures fell 0.41%. After digesting the Fed's interest - rate cut, Shanghai lead generally showed a volatile downward trend [7]. - **Market Outlook**: Supply is showing a stable and rising trend, while demand is in a slow recovery stage. The overall inventory decline provides some support for lead prices. Next week, the Shanghai lead futures market is expected to maintain a high - level volatile pattern, and it is recommended to build long positions on dips [7]. - **Operation Suggestion**: The main contract 2511 of Shanghai lead mainly fluctuates upward, with a fluctuation range of 16,800 - 17,300 and a stop - loss range of 16,600 - 17,400. Pay attention to the operation rhythm and risk control [7]. 3.2 Futures and Spot Market - **Price Comparison**: This week, the domestic futures price of Shanghai lead decreased slightly compared with last week, the foreign futures price remained flat, and the ratio increased. As of September 25, 2025, the futures closing price (electronic disk) of LME 3 - month lead was reported at $1,938 per ton, and the futures closing price (active contract) of lead was reported at 17,060 yuan per ton. The Shanghai - London ratio of lead was reported at 8.71 [9][13]. - **Premium and Discount**: The domestic futures premium and discount strengthened, and the foreign premium and discount strengthened. As of September 25, 2025, the Chinese futures premium and discount was reported at - 110 yuan per ton, and the LME lead premium and discount (0 - 3) was reported at - 36.8 dollars per ton [15][17]. - **Inventory**: Both foreign and domestic lead inventories are falling, and the number of warehouse receipts is also decreasing. As of September 25, 2025, the total inventory of lead was reported at 4.22 tons, a decrease of 17,400 tons; the total inventory of LME lead was reported at 219,550 tons, a decrease of 750 tons. The number of warehouse receipts for Shanghai lead was reported at 35,584 tons, a decrease of 13,791 tons [32][36]. 3.3 Industrial Chain Situation Supply - side - **Primary Lead**: As of September 18, 2025, the average operating rate of primary lead in major production areas was 80.56%, a decrease of 0.96% compared with last week; the weekly output of primary lead was 35,900 tons, a decrease of 0 tons compared with last week [23]. - **Recycled Lead**: As of September 18, 2025, the domestic output of recycled lead in major production areas was reported at 16,400 tons, a month - on - month increase of 3,200 tons; the average utilization rate of recycled lead production capacity was reported at 43.63%, a month - on - month increase of 8.78%. Near the Double Festival, the recycling of scrapped batteries increased, and the output increased slightly [27][30]. - **Trade**: In August 2025, the export volume of refined lead was 1,795 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 43.62% and a year - on - year increase of 408.31%. The import volume of refined lead was 3,417 tons. The import volume of lead alloy was 12,784 tons. The import volume of lead concentrate was about 122,300 tons, a month - on - month increase of 3.6% and a year - on - year increase of 28.3%. The total import volume of lead ingots was 13,450 tons, a month - on - month increase of 6,940 tons, an increase of 106.70%; a year - on - year decrease of 9,730 tons, a decrease of 41.98%. Among them, the import volume of refined lead was 3,420 tons, a month - on - month increase of 2,600 tons, an increase of 317.07%; a year - on - year decrease of 10,600 tons, a decrease of 75.63%. The import volume of crude lead was 10,030 tons, a month - on - month increase of 4,340 tons, an increase of 76.27%; a year - on - year increase of 1,090 tons, an increase of 12.27% [40]. Demand - side - **Processing Fees**: As of September 18, 2025, the national average processing price of lead concentrate was reported at 370 yuan per ton, and the average monthly value of the processing fee TC for imported lead concentrate (Pb60) was reported at - 90 dollars per thousand tons. The domestic lead concentrate processing fee declined, and the imported ore processing fee remained flat, which was generally negative for domestic production [43][45]. - **Automobile Market**: In August 2025, the overall automobile sales were 2.857 million vehicles, a month - on - month increase of 10.18% and a year - on - year increase of 16.4%. From January to August, the cumulative automobile sales reached 21.128 million vehicles, a year - on - year increase of 12.6%. The sales of passenger cars, commercial vehicles, and new - energy vehicles all showed growth trends. The new - energy vehicle sales in August were 1.395 million vehicles, a month - on - month increase of 10.54% and a year - on - year increase of 27%. The new - energy vehicle sales from January to August were 9.62 million vehicles, a year - on - year increase of 36.7%. The new - energy vehicle sales accounted for 48.8% of the total new automobile sales in August and 45.5% from January to August. The growth of automobile production and sales is accelerating, and the process of lithium replacing lead is accelerating, leading to a decline in lead demand [47][50]. - **Battery Market**: As of September 25, 2025, the average price of waste lead electric storage 48V/20AH in Zhejiang was reported at 394 yuan per group, and the price of lead - antimony alloy (for batteries, containing 2 - 4% antimony) in Shanghai was 19,920 yuan per ton. The battery price remained flat, and the price of lead - antimony alloy decreased [52][55].

Inflation Overview - August CPI in the U.S. rose to 0.38%, exceeding the expected 0.3%[1] - Core CPI remained stable at 0.35%, with a year-on-year increase of 3.1%[1] - Food and energy prices contributed significantly to the CPI increase, with energy prices rebounding to 0.69% from -1.07% in July[6] Tariff Impact - The transmission of tariffs to prices remains manageable, with core goods inflation driven mainly by new and used car prices[2] - Tariff-sensitive categories showed moderate growth, indicating limited inflationary pressure from tariffs[2] - The effective tariff rate increase was less than anticipated, with companies absorbing part of the tariff costs[2] Employment Market Signals - Initial jobless claims rose unexpectedly, signaling a slowdown in the labor market[1] - Excluding Texas, initial claims align with historical seasonal patterns, suggesting a gradual weakening rather than a sharp decline[2] - Market expectations for a 25 basis point rate cut in September are now fully priced in, with a 13% chance for a 50 basis point cut[1] Market Reactions - U.S. Treasury yields fell by 5 basis points, with 2-year and 10-year yields at 3.50% and 4.00%, respectively[1] - The U.S. dollar index decreased by 0.4% to 97.6, while U.S. stock markets saw an uptick[1] Risk Factors - Potential risks include higher-than-expected tariff transmission to inflation and a faster-than-expected decline in the U.S. labor market[3]

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the ongoing challenges in the U.S. labor market, highlighting a potential rise in unemployment rates and the difficulties faced by the private sector in job recovery, particularly in light of recent economic data and policy implications [2][6][15]. Employment Trends - The initial response rate for the August non-farm survey showed a significant rebound, but the trend of employment deterioration has not ceased, with private sector job additions contracting for four consecutive months [4][6]. - The total non-farm job additions from May to August amounted to only 107,000, which is below the average monthly growth of 127,000 in the first four months of 2025 [4][6]. - The unemployment rate increased from 4.248% to 4.324%, primarily due to a slight recovery in labor force participation [6][11]. Economic Sensitivity - The U6 unemployment rate and the unemployment rate for African Americans have both seen significant increases, indicating underlying vulnerabilities in the labor market [11][16]. - The manufacturing sector, particularly sensitive to tariffs, has experienced a decline in working hours since peaking in May and June, suggesting further potential job losses [9][11]. Federal Reserve Implications - The Federal Reserve's recent labor data has undergone significant revisions, with a cumulative downward adjustment of 279,000 in non-farm job additions and a 0.21% increase in the unemployment rate since the July FOMC meeting [6][15]. - There is speculation about whether the Fed may need to adjust its interest rate strategy in response to the deteriorating labor market conditions, especially after Powell's dovish stance [6][15]. Structural Issues - The article emphasizes that even if the U.S. economy avoids recession, young individuals and undocumented immigrants are already experiencing economic hardships, highlighting a structural issue in the labor market [16][15]. - The combination of declining full-time employment, rising part-time employment, and increasing permanent unemployment poses a greater risk for future unemployment rate increases [7][11].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided in the given content 2. Core View of the Report - This week, the Shanghai lead futures showed a volatile trend, with the main contract 2510 rising 0.12%. Overall, Shanghai lead showed a slight upward trend under the situation of declining supply and stable demand. Looking ahead, the supply of Shanghai lead is expected to decrease, and the demand will gradually increase. Coupled with the market's expectation of the Fed's interest - rate cut, it is recommended to lay out long positions on lead prices at low levels. The main contract 2510 is expected to fluctuate upward, with a fluctuation range of 16700 - 17200 and a stop - loss range of 16500 - 17300 [3][4] 3. Summary According to the Directory 3.1 Week - to - Week Summary - **Market Review**: This week, the Shanghai lead futures fluctuated. The main contract 2510 was active, rising 0.12%. Overall, Shanghai lead showed a slight upward trend with declining supply and stable demand [4] - **Market Outlook**: On the supply side, primary lead production is expected to be stable, but the tight supply of lead concentrates may limit production. The supply of secondary lead has significant regional differences, and the tight supply of waste batteries restricts production. On the demand side, the demand for lead - acid batteries in the automotive sector is stable. The "Golden September and Silver October" consumption season is starting, and the demand in emerging energy - storage fields is positive. However, the overall demand is still in a slow recovery stage. In terms of inventory, foreign lead inventories decreased, domestic inventories increased, and the number of warehouse receipts decreased, with the overall inventory remaining unchanged. Overall, the supply of Shanghai lead is expected to decrease, and the demand will gradually increase [4] - **Operation Suggestion**: The main contract 2510 of Shanghai lead is expected to fluctuate upward, with a fluctuation range of 16700 - 17200 and a stop - loss range of 16500 - 17300. Pay attention to the operation rhythm and risk control [4] 3.2 Futures and Spot Market - **Price and Ratio**: This week, the domestic futures price of Shanghai lead rose slightly compared with last week, the foreign futures price remained flat, and the ratio decreased. As of September 4, 2025, the LME 3 - month lead futures closing price was $1938/ton, the lead futures closing price of the active contract was 16805 yuan/ton, and the Shanghai - London ratio was 8.67 [6][10] - **Premium and Discount**: The domestic futures premium and discount weakened, and the foreign premium and discount also weakened. As of September 4, 2025, the Chinese futures premium and discount was - 55 yuan/ton, and the LME lead premium and discount (0 - 3) was - 44.77 dollars/ton [12][14] - **Inventory and Warehouse Receipts**: Foreign lead inventories decreased, domestic inventories increased slightly, the number of warehouse receipts decreased, and the overall inventory of Shanghai lead decreased. As of September 4, 2025, the total lead inventory was 65300 tons (up 100 tons), the total LME lead inventory was 251200 tons (down 9850 tons), and the number of Shanghai lead warehouse receipts was 55044 tons (down 3107 tons) [28][32] 3.3 Industry Chain Situation - **Supply - Primary Lead**: The operating rate of primary lead enterprises increased, but the output decreased, with little overall impact. As of August 28, 2025, the average operating rate of primary lead in major producing areas was 78.2% (up 0.54% from last week), and the weekly output was 37100 tons (down 400 tons from last week) [18][20] - **Supply - Secondary Lead**: The capacity utilization rate and output of secondary lead enterprises decreased. It is currently in the off - season, with few waste battery scrapings, and the capacity is difficult to recover significantly. It is expected to recover next week. As of August 28, 2025, the domestic output of secondary lead in major producing areas was 19200 tons (down 2100 tons month - on - month), and the average capacity utilization rate was 45.76% (down 1.65% month - on - month) [23][26] - **Supply - Number of Secondary Lead Enterprises**: The number of secondary lead production enterprises remained the same. As of July 31, 2025, the total number of secondary lead production enterprises was 68 [34][36] - **Supply - Lead Trade**: Lead exports decreased significantly, while lead imports increased significantly. In July 2025, the refined lead export volume was 1795 tons (down 43.62% month - on - month, up 408.31% year - on - year), the refined lead import volume was 3417 tons, the lead alloy import volume was 12784 tons, the lead concentrate import volume was about 122300 tons (up 3.6% month - on - month, up 28.3% year - on - year), and the total lead ingot import volume was 13450 tons (up 6940 tons month - on - month, up 106.70%; down 9730 tons year - on - year, down 41.98%) [38][40] - **Demand - Processing Fees**: The domestic lead concentrate processing fees and imported ore processing fees decreased, which was generally negative for domestic production. As of September 4, 2025, the national average processing price of lead concentrates was 440 yuan/ton, and the average monthly processing fee TC for imported lead concentrates (Pb60) was - 90 dollars/kiloton [42][44] - **Demand - Automobile Sales**: The growth rate of automobile production and sales decreased, which affected the demand for lead. In July 2025, the automobile sales volume was 2.593 million (down 10.7% month - on - month, up 14.7% year - on - year), the passenger car sales volume was 2.287 million (down 9.8% month - on - month, up 4.7% year - on - year), the commercial vehicle sales volume was 306000 (down 17.1% month - on - month, up 14.1% year - on - year), and the new energy vehicle sales volume was 1.262 million (down 5% month - on - month, up 27.4% year - on - year) [46][48] - **Demand - Battery Prices**: The price of lead - acid batteries remained flat, while the price of lead - antimony alloy (for batteries, containing 2 - 4% antimony) increased. As of September 4, 2025, the average price of waste lead 48V/20AH batteries in Zhejiang was 394 yuan/group, and the price of lead - antimony alloy in Shanghai was 19900 yuan/ton [50][52]

Group 1 - The core concern is whether US tech stocks will decline, which may impact domestic AI sectors [1][2] - There is a rising short-term uncertainty regarding US stock adjustments, influenced by seasonal patterns and negative AI commentary [2][3] - The potential for fluctuating interest rate policies by the Federal Reserve could disrupt market stability, particularly with upcoming economic data releases [3][4] Group 2 - The recent increase in global long-term bond yields indicates underlying risks in the market, despite previous optimism regarding recovery post-tariff adjustments [4] - The possibility of RMB appreciation could provide liquidity support for A-shares and Hong Kong stocks, driven by stable export growth and trade surpluses [5] - Significant capital inflow is anticipated, with an estimated 300 billion RMB in compensatory settlement from exports in the first half of the year [5]

Core Viewpoint - The company reported strong financial results for H1 2025, with significant year-on-year growth in revenue and net profit, driven by rising gold prices and effective cost management [1][2]. Financial Performance - In H1 2025, the company achieved revenue of 9.246 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 42.14%, and a net profit attributable to shareholders of 1.596 billion yuan, up 48.43% year-on-year [1]. - For Q2 2025, revenue reached 4.924 billion yuan, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 31.95% and a quarter-on-quarter increase of 13.95%. The net profit for Q2 was 902 million yuan, showing a year-on-year increase of 57.67% and a quarter-on-quarter rise of 29.99% [1]. Gold Price Impact - The average gold price in H1 2025 increased by 38.9% year-on-year to 724.29 yuan per gram, positively impacting the company's revenue from gold sales, which rose by 29.85% [1]. - The company’s gross margin improved to 79.15%, an increase of 7.26 percentage points year-on-year, attributed to the rise in gold prices and effective cost management [1]. International Expansion - The company plans to issue shares overseas (H shares) and list on the Hong Kong Stock Exchange to enhance its global strategy, optimize capital structure, and improve governance [2]. - Successful listing of H shares is expected to create new opportunities for mergers and acquisitions, leading to long-term growth in gold production [2]. Profit Forecast and Valuation - The company maintains its profit forecast, expecting net profits of 3.294 billion yuan, 3.764 billion yuan, and 5.112 billion yuan for 2025-2027, with a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 24.57% [3]. - The target price has been adjusted to 21.31 yuan, based on a price-to-earnings (PE) ratio of 17.91 for 2025 [3].