2. 宏观不是机器。 1. 微观原则不适用于主权货币国家 达里奥老师最广为流传的论点之一是： 二战后每次金融危机，根源都是债务周期。长期看，债务不可 能永远涨得比收入快；利率也不可能长期高得让借款人受不了，或低得让放款人受不了。 这句话非常符合常识，对企业、家庭、你和我这种"用钱者"都成立。但对国家这种"发钱者"不完全适 用。主权货币的发行者不用像公司那样，成本收益，精打细算，不停取舍；国家可以直接用自己发的货 币，买劳动、买资源，发展技术。 昨天读了徐高怼达里奥的九千字长文《达里奥对于国债问题的认识错在哪里》。徐老师认为其不懂宏 观，把微观方法乱入国家层面。 所以，严格来说，"本币债务"对国家的意义不同于对个人企业。说得更直白点：不管是美元还是人民 币，都是政府垄断发行的。如果政府不先发出来、花出去，大家口袋里就没有钱，达里奥老师自己和桥 水账户里也不会有钱。 我一直觉得达里奥的经济世界观很清奇，文章也写过，播客专辑也讨论过。 但我这种资浅宏观牛马， 只有在大佬撑腰时才敢出来狐假虎威事后诸葛一下。 文章中主要有两个怼点，简单直接。我想很多人内心也都嘀咕过： 1. 微观原则不适用于主权货币国家； 会计恒等式复 ...

Let's go back now to our esteemed panel. Steve is still there. We still got to look through it.By the way, I'm trying to recycle the internet so I can compare the two. Francis, your immediate take on this decision. >> Well, hearing about that dot plot, maybe it'll come in defense of the dot plot.There'll be a lot of comments about this being very political in nature, but this wide dispersion in views on this Fed >> the Fed way thought the Fed wasn't political. >> Well, it's independent. >> It's independent. ...

Group 1: Macroeconomic and Monetary Policy Stance - The core viewpoint of Powell's speech indicates a shift to a "neutral dovish" stance compared to the previous "neutral hawkish" position, highlighting a fragile balance in the labor market with rising risks of job losses [3][9][77] - Economic growth is slowing, with the actual GDP growth rate for the first half of 2025 at 1.2%, half of that in 2024, primarily due to a slowdown in consumer spending [10][11] - The labor market shows a significant decline in job creation, with an average of only 35,000 jobs added per month over the past three months, down from 168,000 in 2024, indicating a weakening supply-demand balance [10][11] Group 2: Long-term Monetary Policy Framework - Powell introduced a revised long-term monetary policy framework, reaffirming a 2% inflation target and a broad maximum employment goal, marking a return to a more traditional approach [4][22][78] - The 2025 statement serves as a retrospective confirmation of the Fed's monetary policy strategy, emphasizing the need to balance inflation and employment amid the current "stagflation" challenges [4][25][78] Group 3: Interest Rate Cut Expectations and Risks - Following Powell's speech, expectations for a rate cut in September surged, with implied probabilities rising from 72% to 94%, and the anticipated number of cuts for 2025 increasing from 1.9 to 2.2 times [5][31][79] - The key to whether the September rate cut materializes lies not in Powell's statements but in the upcoming non-farm payroll report and inflation data [42][79] - The anticipated macroeconomic scenario for 2026 suggests persistent inflation and a stabilizing economy, with potential risks of rising long-term Treasury yields and a reversal in the dollar's value [53][79]

Group 1 - Powell's speech at the Jackson Hole conference shifted the policy tone to a "neutral dovish" stance compared to the July FOMC meeting [1][2] - The implied probability of a rate cut in September rose from 72% to 94% following Powell's remarks, indicating a significant market reaction [1][4] - The baseline scenario anticipates the unemployment rate rising to the 4.4-4.5% range, with expectations of two rate cuts within the year [1][4] Group 2 - Powell described the employment situation as a "fragile balance" with both supply and demand weakening, indicating an upward risk to employment downturns [2] - Inflation driven by tariffs is seen as clear but potentially "one-off," necessitating close monitoring of tariff impacts in the short term [2] - The Federal Reserve aims to balance the risks of stagflation, with a cautious approach to policy adjustments as the economic outlook evolves [2] Group 3 - The long-term monetary policy framework aims for a 2% inflation target alongside broad maximum employment goals, reflecting a shift from previous strategies [3] - The 2025 statement serves as a retrospective confirmation of the Fed's monetary policy strategy, emphasizing the dual mandate of inflation and employment [3] Group 4 - The anticipated rate cuts for 2026 have increased, with expectations of 5.3 cuts by the end of that year, reflecting a more dovish outlook [4] - The key to the September rate cut's realization lies in the upcoming non-farm payroll report and inflation data, rather than solely on Powell's statements [4] - The market's optimism regarding rate cuts in 2026 may be overly optimistic, with potential risks related to rising long-term Treasury yields and a reversal in the dollar's strength [4]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the article is that Powell's speech at the Jackson Hole conference indicates a shift towards a more dovish monetary policy stance, balancing the risks of stagflation with a focus on employment and inflation [2][3][9] - Powell's analysis highlights a "fragile balance" in the labor market, with both supply and demand weakening, leading to an increased risk of unemployment [3][11] - Inflation is influenced by tariffs, which Powell describes as having a clear but potentially "one-time" effect, necessitating close monitoring of their transmission and accumulation [3][17][18] Group 2 - The long-term monetary policy framework has been revised to return to a 2% inflation target and a broader maximum employment goal, moving away from the average inflation targeting introduced in 2020 [4][22][25] - The 2025 statement serves as a retrospective confirmation of the Fed's monetary policy strategy, acknowledging the current challenges of stagflation and the need to balance dual objectives of inflation and employment [4][25][30] - The Fed's interest rate cut expectations have risen significantly, with the implied probability of a September rate cut increasing from 72% to 94%, and the number of expected cuts for the year rising from 1.9 to 2.2 [5][31][42] Group 3 - The article discusses the potential risks associated with the Fed's rate cut expectations, particularly focusing on the labor market's performance and upcoming economic data releases [5][42][43] - The baseline scenario anticipates an increase in the unemployment rate to the range of 4.4-4.5%, which would support the case for two rate cuts within the year [5][43][48] - The long-term outlook for 2026 suggests that the market may be overly optimistic regarding the number of expected rate cuts, with a need to monitor the upward pressure on long-term Treasury yields and the risk of a reversal in the dollar's value [5][53][70]

Group 1: Macroeconomic and Monetary Policy Stance - The policy tone has shifted to a "neutral dovish" stance compared to the July FOMC meeting, indicating a fragile balance in the labor market with rising risks of job losses [3][9][11] - Economic growth is slowing, with a real GDP growth rate of 1.2% in the first half of 2025, which is half of the 2024 rate, primarily due to a slowdown in consumer spending [10][11] - Inflation is influenced by tariffs, which are clearly visible but may be "one-time" effects, necessitating close monitoring of their transmission and accumulation [3][17][18] Group 2: Long-term Monetary Policy Framework Normalization - The long-term monetary policy framework has been revised to return to a 2% inflation target and a broad maximum employment goal, moving away from the average inflation targeting introduced in 2020 [4][22][25] - The 2025 statement serves as a retrospective confirmation of the Fed's monetary policy strategy, emphasizing the need to balance inflation and employment amid the current "stagflation" challenges [4][25][78] Group 3: Expectations and Risks of Fed Rate Cuts - The expectation for a rate cut in September has increased significantly, with implied probabilities rising from 72% to 94%, and the number of expected cuts for the year increasing from 1.9 to 2.2 [5][31][42] - The key to whether the September rate cut materializes lies not in Powell's statements but in the upcoming non-farm payroll report and inflation data [5][42][43] - The macroeconomic scenario for 2026 suggests persistent inflation and economic stabilization, but the pricing of three rate cuts may be overly optimistic, warranting caution regarding long-term bond yields and the dollar's reversal risk [5][53][60]

Core Viewpoint - The Euro is experiencing an upward trend against the US Dollar, currently trading around 1.1559, with a slight increase of 0.12% from the previous close of 1.1545. However, there are warnings about potential interest rate cuts if trade tensions escalate [1]. Economic Indicators - The current interest rate of 2% is positioned within the European Central Bank's neutral range of 1.5%-2.5%. Economists are concerned that if trade tensions worsen, further rate cuts may be necessary to maintain confidence [1]. - Sylvain Broyer, Chief Economist at S&P Global Ratings EMEA, suggests that actual interest rates have effectively reached zero, and Germany's upcoming economic stimulus plan could have a significant impact across the Eurozone [1]. Labor Market and Inflation - The labor market remains tight, with unemployment rates below equilibrium levels, indicating potential inflationary pressures as suggested by the traditional Phillips curve [1]. Market Expectations - There is a possibility that the market's expectation of rate cuts may reverse, with the next action from the European Central Bank potentially being an interest rate hike instead [1]. - The pricing gap between the bond market and the currency market has reached its largest level in 2023, indicating significant trading opportunities [1]. Technical Analysis - The Euro's recent decline has confirmed a lower high around 1.1770, suggesting the potential for further declines, with negative pressure targeting a close below the previous low of 1.1550 and the 50-day simple moving average [1]. - A bearish head and shoulders pattern has been completed on the 4-hour chart, indicating a potential continuation of the downward trend [1].

Report Industry Investment Rating No information about the report industry investment rating is provided in the document. Core View of the Report The report delves into the evolution of the Phillips Curve and its current state of alienation in the US, aiming to explain the Fed's policy dilemmas. It analyzes the factors contributing to the flattening and steepening of the curve and offers insights into the Fed's current policy stance, including reasons for delaying interest rate cuts [2][8][14]. Summary by Related Catalog Evolution of the Phillips Curve Theory - In 1926, Irving Fisher pointed out the inverse relationship between unemployment and price changes, emphasizing the impact of unexpected price changes on the economy [3]. - In 1958, Phillips proposed the negative correlation between the unemployment rate and the rate of change in money - wages, and drew the Phillips Curve [3]. - In 1960, Samuelson and Solow proposed the "unemployment - price" Phillips Curve, replacing the rate of change in money - wages with price increases and incorporating the theory of wage - cost - driven inflation [4]. - In 1962, Okun proposed the "output - price" Phillips Curve, replacing the unemployment rate with the economic growth rate. The combination of Okun's Law and the Phillips Curve forms the basis of the Keynesian policy framework [5]. - In the 1970s, Friedman and Phelps proposed the Phillips Curve with adaptive expectations, introducing the concepts of short - term and long - term curves and the natural unemployment rate [6]. - In the mid - 1970s, the rational expectations school argued that there is no stable relationship between unemployment and inflation in both the short and long term, and the Phillips Curve is vertical [7]. - After the 1980s, the New Keynesian Phillips Curve (NKPC) became systematic, emphasizing forward - looking expectation management [7]. Alienation of the Phillips Curve - **Flattening**: In recent years, the Phillips Curve has flattened. From 1960 - 1983, the slope was 0.67, but from 2000 - 2019, it dropped to 0.03, making it difficult for policymakers to adjust inflation and employment. Factors include stable inflation expectations, supply - chain reconstruction due to trade globalization, and labor - market structural issues [8][9][10]. - **Steepening**: Since 2020, due to large - scale fiscal stimulus and supply - side disruptions after the pandemic, the Phillips Curve has shown a short - term steepening, leaving behind government debt pressure and weakening the curve's elasticity [11]. - **Underlying Cause**: The essence of the Phillips Curve's changes is that the US economy is no longer a closed loop, and the economic cycle's scope changes, leading to local breaks in the curve [12]. Understanding the Fed's Policy Attitude - **Two Concerns**: The Fed is worried about uncontrollable inflation expectations and whether tariff shocks and loose policies will lead to persistent inflation [14]. - **Reasons for Delaying Interest Rate Cuts**: The Fed's ability to suppress inflation is declining; the effectiveness of interest rate cuts depends on the smooth operation of the global dollar system; managing inflation expectations is crucial; and the Fed uses the CME FedWatch tool for expectation management [15].

Core Insights - The report critiques Ray Dalio's understanding of national debt, arguing that he applies microeconomic thinking to macroeconomic issues, leading to flawed conclusions about debt sustainability [2][4][13] - It emphasizes the importance of recognizing different levels of understanding debt: microeconomic, macroeconomic, and international monetary system perspectives [5][11] - The report highlights that a country's debt sustainability is primarily determined by its production capacity rather than just cash flow, especially in cases of insufficient domestic demand [6][9][10] Section Summaries Understanding Debt at Different Levels - The first level of understanding debt is microeconomic, focusing on individual or corporate cash flows covering debt obligations [5] - The second level is macroeconomic, where a country's debt sustainability is linked to its production capacity and domestic demand [6][9] - The third level involves the international monetary system, particularly how the U.S. can sustain high debt levels due to its status as the issuer of the world's primary reserve currency [11][12] Critique of Dalio's Methodology - Dalio's analysis is criticized for being overly simplistic and not accounting for the complexities of macroeconomic dynamics [13][20] - The report argues that Dalio's view of macroeconomics as a machine is outdated and fails to capture the fluid nature of economic interactions [15][18] - It points out that macroeconomic outcomes can differ significantly based on the prevailing economic conditions, which Dalio's framework does not adequately address [19][20] Implications for National Debt - The report asserts that countries with excess production capacity and insufficient demand can manage higher debt levels without facing crises [9][10] - It warns against applying microeconomic debt sustainability criteria to macroeconomic contexts, as this can lead to misjudgments about a country's financial health [20][21] - The analysis suggests that the focus should be on the broader economic environment rather than rigid debt-to-GDP ratios or deficit targets [19][20]

Group 1 - The article discusses the "three-phase overlap" theory and its implications for China's economic transformation, emphasizing that macroeconomics is closely linked to national development and people's lives [1] - The government work report highlights the focus on expanding domestic demand, with Jiangsu's retail sales of consumer goods increasing by 5.6% year-on-year in the first quarter, driven by consumption policies and market integration [1] - The shift from "world factory" to "world market" is illustrated by the comparison of import and export data during the 14th Five-Year Plan, showcasing economic resilience and the impact of an open economy on macroeconomic growth [1] Group 2 - The discussion on "high-quality development stage macro policy orientation" emphasizes the need for a dynamic balance between stabilizing growth, adjusting structure, and preventing risks, as seen in the coordinated development in Nanjing's Jiangbei New Area [2] - The importance of understanding macroeconomic analysis from a holistic perspective is highlighted, indicating that economic insights should be derived from data trends that reflect people's livelihoods and openness [2]