各项存款增速有所放缓，存款定期化特征减弱。6月末，上海市本外币存款余额22.9万亿元，同比 增长7.5%。其中，住户存款余额同比增长10.7%。非金融企业存款余额同比增长4.8%，增速较上年同期 高1.5个百分点。从期限看，住户和非金融企业的定期及其他存款增速较上年同期均有所回落。非银金 融机构存款余额同比增长7.6%，增速较上年同期低3.6个百分点，受资本市场回暖的带动，二季度非银 存款增加较多。 社会融资规模同比多增，直接融资多增较多。上半年，上海社会融资规模增量为8418亿元，同比多 增3240亿元，较好地满足了实体经济的融资需求。从结构看，对实体经济发放的人民币贷款增加5108亿 元，占社融增量的六成。直接融资方面，企业债券净融资1026亿元，同比多增159亿元；非金融企业股 票净融资142亿元，同比多增70亿元；政府债券净融资1444亿元，同比多增2036亿元。表外净融资（包 括委托贷款、信托贷款和未贴现银行承兑汇票）174亿元。 人民银行上海总部指出，下阶段将按照总行统一部署，继续落实好总量和结构性货币政策工具，在 做好金融"五篇大文章"的基础上，突出支持科技创新、提振消费，不断深化金融改革和高水 ...

金十数据7月24日讯，中国人民银行上海总部召开2025年第三季度新闻发布会，介绍上半年上海金融运 行情况。6月末，上海全市本外币贷款余额12.85万亿元，同比增长8.4%，比全国高1.6个百分点。央行 上海总部表示，从效果看，上半年，上海社会融资规模同比多增，信贷总量平稳增长，融资成本稳中有 降，信贷结构持续优化。分借款主体看，住户贷款余额同比增长13.7%，增速较上年同期高8.1个百分 点。其中，个人住房贷款需求回升，增速自去年10月转正以来持续提高。非金融企业贷款余额同比增长 5.5%。 （澎湃） 央行上海总部：上海个人房贷需求回升，融资成本稳中有降 ...

继续降息，能大幅减少存量债务成本，让老百姓、企业和政府每年都少付一大笔利息。 上半年政府债券净融资7.66万亿元，同比多4.32万亿元，这在低利率环境下对政府是很划算的事，如果利率进一步下降，债券融资成本更低，发新债对于政 府和企业降低融资成本的作用会更大；但企业债券净融资1.15万亿元，同比少2562亿元，一方面说明企业投资信心仍然有待提振，另一方面也说明需要进一 步降息。 继续降息，能大幅减少存量债务成本，让老百姓、企业和政府每年都少付一大笔利息。 先说老百姓，现在中国居民贷款，房贷、消费贷、各种个人贷款加起来差不多有80万亿元。只要利率降1个百分点，家庭部门一年就能少还8000亿元利息。 省下来的钱能拿去多买点东西、多下几次馆子，对背着房贷的中等收入家庭尤其管用。 再说企业，非金融企业一共欠了银行大概150多万亿元。利率降1个点，一年就能少付1.5万亿元利息，等于凭空多出来1.5万亿利润。企业赚了钱，就能涨点 工资，或者多招点人，经济信心自然跟着上来。 日前央行发布2025年上半年金融统计数据，6月末广义货币（M2）同比增长8.3%，狭义货币（M1）同比增长4.6%，6月末社会融资规模存量同比增长 8. ...

7月21日，中国人民银行（下称"央行"）授权全国银行间同业拆借中心公布新一期贷款市场报 价利率（LPR）。其中，1年期LPR为3.0%，5年期以上LPR为3.5%，较上月均维持不变，符合 市场预期。下半年我国的货币政策是否进一步降准、降息，需重点依据物价指数的变化。 央行近日发布的6月金融数据显示，当前我国货币政策基于适度宽松的总基调，不断优化、完 善总量调控与结构性工具相结合的方式，正有效支撑着我国宏观经济的平稳运行。具体来看， 货币政策在推动企业投资与居民消费意愿上取得一定效果，后续在推动通胀目标的实现，进一 步提振居民消费信心等方面仍需发力。 从货币供应与信贷指标看，货币政策在扩大货币供应和信贷投放方面效果明显，企业投资与居 民消费意愿不足的局面正在缓解。 一是广义货币（M2）增速保持在基本合理的水平。6月末M2余额达330.29万亿元，同比增长 8.3%，较去年同期大幅上升了2.1个百分点，是2024年3月份以来的最高点。 二是狭义货币（M1）大幅提升。M1的6月末同比增长4.6%，是2025年5月以来的最高值，反 映了企业与居民活期存款增长开始恢复的态势，资金沉淀在定期存款的现象开始好转。 根据当前 ...

从社会融资规模看，二季度社会融资规模延续扩张态势，政府债支撑增量的特征显著。首先，6月末我 国社会融资规模存量累计同比增长8.9%，较5月份上升了0.2个百分点，且高于一季度的水平，进一步说 明我国社会融资环境正持续改善，为实体经济发展营造了更为有利的融资氛围。其次，从结构性数据考 察，政府债券是当前增量的主力力量。对实体经济发放的人民币贷款同比增长7%，而政府债券同比增 长21.3%。第三，从单月数据看，6月末的社会融资规模增量同比多增9008亿元，超出市场预期，反映 出当月金融体系向实体经济注入的资金规模较为可观。 从存贷款的结构看，居民与企业存在较大的结构差异。在住户端，居民短期贷款的疲软，反映出居民对 于短期消费较为谨慎，居民消费信心不足的倾向依然存在；而中长期贷款的增加更多源于政策的支撑， 可能与房地产市场的部分回暖以及居民的长期投资、消费计划相关。另外，上半年人民币存款增加 17.94万亿元，其中的住户存款就增加10.77万亿元，说明了居民存在着较强的预防性储蓄动机。 在企业端，短期和中长期贷款均有所增加。企业短期贷款的增加，有助于满足企业日常经营周转的资金 需求；而中长期贷款的显著增长则反映出企 ...

Core Viewpoint - The financial data for June indicates a significant increase in M1 and M2 growth rates, reflecting heightened liquidity and economic activity, primarily driven by government financing and seasonal factors, while consumer confidence remains cautious [1][2][3]. Group 1: Monetary Data - In June, the new social financing scale reached 4.2 trillion yuan, an increase of 900 billion yuan year-on-year, with a year-on-year growth rate of 8.9% for the social financing stock, up from 8.7% [1][2]. - M1 growth accelerated from 2.3% in May to 4.6% in June, while M2 increased from 7.9% to 8.3%, indicating improved liquidity and economic activity [1][3]. - The M2-M1 gap narrowed to 3.7% from 5.6% in the previous month, suggesting a more optimistic market outlook and enhanced production and consumption investment intentions [1][3]. Group 2: Financing Data - Government bond issuance remains robust, with net financing of 1.3548 trillion yuan in June, a year-on-year increase of 507.2 billion yuan, contributing to a total issuance of 7.66 trillion yuan in the first half of the year, which is 65% of the annual target [2][4]. - Corporate loan demand showed signs of recovery, with new corporate loans in June totaling 1.77 trillion yuan, an increase of 140 billion yuan year-on-year, indicating a strong seasonal performance [4][5]. - Resident loans increased moderately, with short-term loans rising due to seasonal consumption patterns, but overall performance remains weak compared to historical averages [5].

宏观 证券研究报告 |点评报告 2025/7/17 6月金融数据点评—— 新增社融及信贷均超预期 徐超 S1190521050001 证券分析师： 分析师登记编号： 万琦 S1190524070001 证券分析师： 分析师登记编号： 目录 请务必阅读正文之后的免责条款部分 守正 出奇 宁静 致远 1、社融保持超预期扩张 2、M1同比明显上行 ➢ 中国6月M2同比8.3%，预期8.1%，前值7.9%；M1同比4.6%，前值2.3% 。 图表1：金融数据主要分项 | 单位：亿元 | | | | | 当月新增 | | | | | | 同比多增 | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | | | 2025/6 | 2025/5 | 2025/4 | 2025/3 | 2025/2 | 2025/1 | 2025/6 | 2025/5 | 2025/4 | 2025/3 | 2025/2 | 2025/1 | | | 总 | 社融规模 | 41993 | 2 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant information provided 2. Core View of the Report - The current core combination of "weak economic recovery + low inflation" remains unchanged, and the loose liquidity continues, which still provides positive support for the bond market. In the short term, the upside and downside space of yields is limited, and it is expected that Treasury bond futures will continue to fluctuate. Given that there is no directional turn in the policy environment and fundamentals, investors are advised to maintain a certain position [2] 3. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Futures Disk - T, TF, and TL main contract closing prices decreased by 0.05%, 0.01%, and 0.05% respectively, while the TS main contract closing price increased by 0.01%. The trading volumes of T, TF, TS, and TL main contracts decreased by 1203, 616, 81, and 2014 respectively [2] 3.2 Futures Spreads - The spreads of TL2512 - 2509, T2512 - 2509, TF2512 - 2509 increased by 0.01, 0.04, and 0.02 respectively, while the spread of TS2512 - 2509 remained unchanged. The spreads of T09 - TL09 remained unchanged, and the spreads of TF09 - T09, TS09 - T09, TS09 - TF09 increased by 0.03, 0.06, and 0.03 respectively [2] 3.3 Futures Positions - The main contract positions of T, TF, TS, and TL decreased by 2732, 3823, 718, and 2238 respectively. Among the top 20 long - positions, T and TS decreased by 1044 and 793 respectively, while TF and TL increased by 603 and 412 respectively. Among the top 20 short - positions, T decreased by 184, TF decreased by 730, TS decreased by 25, and TL increased by 170. The net short - positions of T and TS increased by 860 and 768 respectively, while those of TF and TL decreased by 1333 and 242 respectively [2] 3.4 CTD (Clean Price) - The clean prices of 250007.IB, 240020.IB, 210014.IB decreased by 0.0380, 0.0175, 0.0832 respectively, while the clean prices of 220010.IB, 250006.IB, 240010.IB, 210005.IB increased by 0.0168, 0.0262, 0.0090, 0.0637 respectively [2] 3.5 Active Treasury Bond Yields - The yields of 3y, 5y, 7y, 10y decreased by 1.25bp, 1.30bp, 1.65bp, 1.11bp respectively, while the 1y yield remained unchanged [2] 3.6 Short - term Interest Rates - The silver - pledged overnight rate increased by 17.02bp, while the Shibor overnight rate decreased by 6.90bp. The silver - pledged 7 - day and 14 - day rates decreased by 4.43bp and increased by 2.00bp respectively, and the Shibor 7 - day and 14 - day rates decreased by 4.20bp and 2.00bp respectively [2] 3.7 LPR Rates - The 1y and 5y LPR rates remained unchanged [2] 3.8 Open Market Operations - The issuance scale was 520.1 billion yuan and 444.6 billion yuan, and the maturity scale was 75.5 billion yuan, with an interest rate of 1.4% for 7 - day [2] 3.9 Industry News - In June, the industrial added value of large - scale industries increased by 6.8% year - on - year, and the total retail sales of consumer goods was 4228.7 billion yuan, a year - on - year increase of 4.8%. In the first half of 2025, the national fixed - asset investment (excluding rural households) was 24865.4 billion yuan, a year - on - year increase of 2.8%, and the fixed - asset investment in June decreased by 0.12% month - on - month. From January to June, the national real estate development investment was 4665.8 billion yuan, a year - on - year decrease of 11.2%. In the first half of the year, the total value of China - US imports and exports was 2.08 trillion yuan, a year - on - year decrease of 9.3%, among which exports decreased by 9.9% and imports decreased by 7.7%. The China - US trade turned from a year - on - year increase in the first quarter to a year - on - year decrease in the second quarter, with a decline of 20.8% [2] 3.10 Market Performance - On Wednesday, Treasury bond cash bonds showed mixed trends. The yields of 1 - 3Y bonds decreased by about 0.25 - 0.85bp, the yields of 5 - 7Y bonds increased by about 0.50bp, and the yields of 10Y and 30Y bonds increased by about 0.30bp and 0.50bp respectively. Most Treasury bond futures declined, with the TS main contract rising by 0.01%, and the TF, T, TL main contracts falling by 0.01%, 0.05%, 0.05% respectively [2] 3.11 Domestic Fundamentals - In June, industrial added value and retail sales showed a slight recovery, the scale of fixed - asset investment continued to shrink, and the unemployment rate remained the same as the previous month. In terms of financial data, social financing increased more than expected, credit demand improved marginally, and the activity of deposits increased. In June, affected by the progress of China - US trade negotiations, imports and exports increased significantly year - on - year. The price level continued to be under pressure, with CPI improving marginally and PPI falling into deflation for 7 consecutive months [2] 3.12 Overseas Situation - In June, the US core CPI was continuously lower than expected, but due to the recent US tariff policy, inflation risks continued to rise. There were greater differences within the Fed regarding the impact of tariffs on the inflation path, but the policy tone remained cautious and wait - and - see, and there was no consensus on the expectation of interest rate cuts [2]

Group 1: Social Financing and Credit - In June, the social financing scale increased by 4.2 trillion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 901.6 billion yuan, primarily supported by government bonds and short-term corporate loans [1] - Net financing of government bonds reached 1.35 trillion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 507.2 billion yuan, indicating sustained fiscal policy efforts [1] - New RMB loans amounted to 2.36 trillion yuan, with corporate loans contributing significantly, particularly short-term loans which increased by 1.16 trillion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 490 billion yuan [1] Group 2: Household Credit and Demand - Household loans increased by 597.6 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of only 26.7 billion yuan, reflecting slow recovery in household credit [2] - Real estate sales remain under pressure, with new home transaction area in 30 cities down by 2.15% year-on-year and second-hand home prices down by 7.26% [2] - The weak growth in household medium and long-term loans is mainly due to early repayment of mortgages, with leverage willingness still needing policy stimulation [2] Group 3: Loan Rates and Financial Structure - The weighted average interest rate for new corporate loans was approximately 3.3%, showing limited decline since the beginning of the year, while personal housing loan rates remained at 3.1% [3] - There was a year-on-year decrease of 371.6 billion yuan in bill financing, as banks actively compressed low-yield assets, leading to gradual optimization of the credit structure [3] Group 4: Money Supply and Liquidity - M1 growth rate significantly rebounded to 4.6%, driven by last year's low base and improved corporate liquidity [4] - New corporate demand deposits increased by 1.7 trillion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 975.5 billion yuan, indicating enhanced operational cash flow efficiency [4] - The reduction of fiscal deposits by 820 billion yuan, along with the seasonal return of wealth management funds, contributed to the increase in deposits from residents and enterprises [4] Group 5: Savings and Consumption Trends - In the first half of the year, household deposits increased by 10.77 trillion yuan, with a savings-to-loan ratio of 9.21, reflecting conservative consumption and investment sentiment [5] - Despite a slight rebound in short-term loans due to consumption scenarios, new loans from the household sector remained at a historical low of 1.17 trillion yuan [5] - Policy measures are needed to further unleash consumption potential, with declining deposit rates potentially encouraging a shift from savings to consumption [5] Group 6: Policy Outlook and Market Expectations - The third quarter is expected to see a peak in government bond issuance, providing continued support for social financing growth [6] - The central bank may maintain reasonable liquidity through reserve requirement ratio cuts and interest rate reductions, focusing on "moderate easing" and structural tools [6] - Overall, June's financial data reflects a balance between active fiscal support and weak recovery in real demand, necessitating ongoing policy efforts to stabilize expectations, promote consumption, and optimize credit structure [6]

Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. Core Viewpoints - The overall capital situation is loose, and with the central bank's 1.4 - trillion repurchase, the bond yields decline. The bond market will continue the short - term volatile pattern, and maintain the bull - market foundation in the medium and long term supported by the weak economic recovery and loose policies. However, attention should be paid to the fluctuations caused by macro data and overseas negotiation progress and the necessity of adjusting the duration [2]. - For the 2509 contract, it is neutral as the repurchase rate rebounds and the bond futures prices fluctuate. Attention should be paid to the widening of the basis. Short - sellers can use far - month contracts for appropriate hedging due to the medium - term adjustment pressure [3]. Summary by Directory 1. Interest Rate Pricing Tracking Indicators - Price indicators: China's CPI (monthly) has a month - on - month change of - 0.10% and a year - on - year change of 0.10%; China's PPI (monthly) has a month - on - month change of - 0.40% and a year - on - year change of - 3.60% [8]. - Economic indicators (monthly update): The social financing scale is 430.22 trillion yuan, with a month - on - month increase of 4.06 trillion yuan and a growth rate of 0.95%; M2 year - on - year is 8.30%, with an increase of 0.40% and a growth rate of 5.06%; the manufacturing PMI is 49.70%, with an increase of 0.20% and a growth rate of 0.40% [8]. - Economic indicators (daily update): The US dollar index is 98.64, with an increase of 0.53 and a growth rate of 0.54%; the offshore US dollar - to - RMB exchange rate is 7.1751, with an increase of 0.005 and a growth rate of 0.07%; SHIBOR 7 - day is 1.55, with an increase of 0.03 and a growth rate of 2.05%; DR007 is 1.57, with an increase of 0.03 and a growth rate of 2.19%; R007 is 1.68, with an increase of 0.04 and a growth rate of 2.35%; the 3 - month inter - bank certificate of deposit (AAA) is 1.56, with a decrease of 0.02 and a decline rate of 1.06%; the AA - AAA credit spread (1Y) is 0.06, with an increase of 0.00 and a decline rate of 1.06% [9]. 2. Overview of the Treasury Bond and Treasury Bond Futures Market - Multiple charts show the closing price trend, price change rate, maturity yield trend, valuation change, precipitation funds trend, position ratio, net position ratio (top 20), long - short position ratio (top 20), trading - to - position ratio, bond lending turnover and total position of treasury bond futures, as well as the spread between national development bonds and treasury bonds and the treasury bond issuance situation [6][7]. 3. Overview of the Money Market Capital Situation - Multiple charts show the interest rate corridor, central bank open - market operations, Shibor interest rate trend, inter - bank certificate of deposit (AAA) maturity yield trend, inter - bank pledged repurchase transaction statistics, and local bond issuance situation [31][33][36]. 4. Spread Overview - Multiple charts show the inter - term spread trend of treasury bond futures and the term spread of spot bonds and cross - variety spread of futures [40][43][44]. 5. Two - Year Treasury Bond Futures - Multiple charts show the implied interest rate and treasury bond maturity yield, IRR and capital interest rate, and the three - year basis and net basis trends of the TS main contract [46][48][55]. 6. Five - Year Treasury Bond Futures - Multiple charts show the implied interest rate and treasury bond maturity yield, IRR and capital interest rate, and the three - year basis trends of the TF main contract [54][57]. 7. Ten - Year Treasury Bond Futures - Multiple charts show the implied interest rate and treasury bond maturity yield, IRR and capital interest rate, and the three - year basis and net basis trends of the T main contract [62][65]. 8. Thirty - Year Treasury Bond Futures - Multiple charts show the implied interest rate and treasury bond maturity yield, IRR and capital interest rate, and the three - year basis and net basis trends of the TL main contract [70][73][76].