以下文章来源于一观大势 ，作者国泰海通策略团队 一观大势 . 中国宏观策略与全球资本投资 报告导读： 本期市场成交热度下降，交易集中度下降，从资金层面看，偏股公募基金新发 行边际回落，融资资金流入放缓，但外资资金加速流入 A 股与港股。 市场定价状态： 市场成交热度下降，交易集中度下降。 1 ）市场情绪（下降）： 本期市场交易换手率降低， 全 A 日均成交额下降至 2.0 万亿， 日均涨停 家数降至 68.4 家 ，最大连板数为 8 个，封板率提升至 70.4% ，龙虎榜上榜家数上升至 60 家； 2 ）赚钱效应（上升）：本期个股上涨比例提升至 54.77% ，全 A 个股周度收益中位数提升至 0.6% ； 3 ）交易集中度（下降）：行业交易集中度降低，本期行业换手率历史分位数处于 90% 以上的行业有 8 个，其中电力设备及新能源 1 个行业换手率处于 95% 以上。 A 股资金流动：偏股基金新发行边际回落，融资资金流入放缓，但外资流入加速。 1 ）公募：本期偏股基金新发规模下降至 218.4 亿，公募基金股票仓位整 体较上期略减； 2 ）私募： 10 月私募信心指数小幅回落，仓位持续逼近年内最高（截至 1 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content 2. Core View of the Report - In Q3 2025, funds reduced their positions in the Main Board and increased their positions in the Science and Technology Innovation Board and the ChiNext Board. The overall stock market value ratio of four types of active equity funds slightly increased, and the concentration of fund holdings rose. The allocation of leading companies showed differentiation, with a continuous decrease in the allocation of first - tier leaders and a recovery in the allocation of second - and third - tier leaders. Funds significantly increased their allocation to communication and information technology and reduced their allocation to optional consumption, necessary consumption, and finance. Each scale of funds shifted from consumption, financial real estate to TMT [11][14][19][29]. 3. Summary According to the Table of Contents 3.1 Position Slightly Increased, Concentration Declined Again - **Sector Allocation**: In Q3 2025, funds reduced their positions in the Main Board by 5.13 percentage points to 67.39% and increased their positions in the ChiNext Board by 3.84 percentage points to 19.04% compared with Q2 2025. The proportion of Hong Kong stock holdings continued to increase [11]. - **Stock Market Value Ratio**: The overall stock market value ratio of four types of active equity funds slightly increased. The proportion of stocks in the total fund assets increased to 85.62% quarter - on - quarter, while the proportion of bonds decreased to 3.95% quarter - on - quarter, and the cash ratio decreased [14]. - **Concentration of Fund Holdings**: In Q3 2025, the concentration of the top 50 fund holdings reached 44.5%. The profitability of fund heavy - holding stocks was acceptable, with the top 10 stocks significantly outperforming the common equity fund index. The average return of the top 10 heavy - holding stocks in Q3 2025 reached 65.8%, significantly outperforming the 26.4% of the common equity fund index [16][17]. - **Allocation of Leading Companies**: In Q3 2025, the proportion of fund holdings in first - tier/second - and third - tier leading companies decreased by 1.23 and increased by 2.07 percentage points quarter - on - quarter to 25.83% and 15.31% respectively. Funds mainly increased their allocation to leading companies in communication, electric power and new energy, and non - ferrous metals industries, and mainly reduced their allocation to leading companies in household appliances, banking, and food and beverage industries [19]. 3.2 Expansion of Public Fund Scale, Contraction of Share - **Overall Scale and Share**: The overall management scale of public funds expanded rapidly, but the share contracted. The scale of each size of funds increased quarter - on - quarter, but the share growth rate showed differentiation. The position adjustment directions of large and small public funds were relatively consistent, and each scale of funds shifted from consumption, financial real estate to TMT [56][60][70]. 3.3 Reduction in Manufacturing, Consumption, and Cyclical Sectors, Increase in TMT - **Industry Allocation Changes**: In Q3, funds significantly increased their allocation to communication and information technology, with an increase of 5.9pct in the information technology sector and 4.6pct in the communication business sector. They reduced their allocation to optional consumption and necessary consumption sectors by 3.2pct and 2.4pct respectively. In terms of heavy - holding allocation ratio changes, the heavy - holding allocation ratios of electronics, communication, computer, and electric power and new energy increased the most, while the ratios of banking, food and beverage, household appliances, and national defense and military industry decreased the most. In terms of over - allocation ratio levels, electronics, communication, electric power and new energy, and medicine had the highest over - allocation ratios, while banking, non - banking, public utilities, and petroleum and petrochemical were still significantly under - allocated [29][31]. - **Sub - industry Allocation**: At the secondary industry level, the heavy - holding allocation ratios of communication equipment, computer equipment, semiconductors, and components increased significantly in Q3, while those of white goods, regional banks, and liquor decreased significantly [46][49].

- The "Odds + Win Rate Strategy" was constructed by combining the risk budgets of the odds strategy and the win rate strategy, resulting in a comprehensive score. The strategy has achieved an annualized return of 6.8% since 2011, with a maximum drawdown of 2.9%. Since 2014, the annualized return was 7.4%, with a maximum drawdown of 2.3%. From 2019 onwards, the annualized return was 6.5%, with a maximum drawdown of 2.3%[3][46][48] - The "Small Cap Factor" is characterized by medium odds (0.1 standard deviation), strong trend (1.3 standard deviation), and low crowding (-1.1 standard deviation). Its comprehensive score has risen significantly to 3.2, indicating improved allocation value[19][20][21] - The "Value Factor" exhibits high odds (1.0 standard deviation), moderate trend (-0.2 standard deviation), and low crowding (-1.4 standard deviation). Its comprehensive score is 3, suggesting it is relatively favorable compared to other factors[21][23][34] - The "Quality Factor" currently shows high odds (1.2 standard deviation), moderate crowding (-0.2 standard deviation), but weak trend (-1.0 standard deviation). Its comprehensive score is -0.6, indicating lower allocation value[24][25][26] - The "Growth Factor" is in a high crowding state, with odds at 0.5 standard deviation, trend at 0.3 standard deviation, and crowding at 1.3 standard deviation. Its comprehensive score has dropped to -0.8, highlighting higher trading risks[27][28][29] - The "Odds-Enhanced Strategy" focuses on overweighting high-odds assets and underweighting low-odds assets under a target volatility constraint. Since 2011, it has achieved an annualized return of 6.7% with a maximum drawdown of 3.1%. From 2014, the annualized return was 7.5%, with a maximum drawdown of 2.8%. Since 2019, the annualized return was 7.0%, with a maximum drawdown of 2.8%[40][41][42] - The "Win Rate-Enhanced Strategy" derives macro win rate scores from five factors: currency, credit, growth, inflation, and overseas. Since 2011, it has achieved an annualized return of 7.2% with a maximum drawdown of 3.4%. From 2014, the annualized return was 8.1%, with a maximum drawdown of 2.2%. Since 2019, the annualized return was 7.0%, with a maximum drawdown of 1.5%[43][44][45]

Fund Position Monitoring - The median position of ordinary equity funds is 91.98%, and for mixed equity funds, it is 91.33%, showing an increase compared to the previous quarter. The current positions are at historical percentiles of 98.41% and 100% respectively [1][6][11] - The average Hong Kong stock allocation for ordinary equity funds is 13%, and for mixed equity funds, it is 17.11%, both slightly increased from the previous quarter. The number of funds allocating to Hong Kong stocks is 241 for ordinary equity funds and 1,671 for mixed equity funds, accounting for 59.55% of the total [1][11][9] Fund Holding Concentration Monitoring - The proportion of heavy-weight stocks in equity allocation is 54.96%, up from 52.46% in the previous period, indicating a significant increase in concentration. The total number of stocks held by fund managers decreased to 2,377 from 2,507, suggesting reduced diversity in holdings [10][1][6] Sector Allocation Monitoring - The main board allocation weight is 47.54%, the ChiNext board is 19.29%, the Sci-Tech Innovation board is 13.91%, and Hong Kong stocks are 19.26%. The main board weight has decreased significantly, while the ChiNext and Sci-Tech boards have increased [21][24] - The technology sector saw a substantial increase in allocation, rising by 12.97% to a historical high of 50.51%. In contrast, the consumer and financial sectors saw significant reductions of 6.08% and 3.48%, respectively, reaching historical lows [24][27] Industry Allocation Monitoring - The top three industries by allocation weight are electronics (23.93%), electric power equipment and new energy (10.27%), and pharmaceuticals (9.81%). The industries with the most active increases in allocation are communication, computer, and electronics, with increases of 2.93%, 1.97%, and 1.85% respectively [26][27][28] Individual Stock Allocation Monitoring - The three stocks with the highest absolute market value allocation are Ningde Times (740 billion), Tencent Holdings (682 billion), and Xinyi Technology (559 billion) [31][32] Performance Fund and Billion Fund Industry Allocation Monitoring - The top three industries allocated by performance funds are electronics (41.18%), communication (38.25%), and computer (8.57%). For billion-scale funds, the top three industries are electronics (26.6%), pharmaceuticals (13.97%), and food and beverage (11.41%) [35][36]

- The report does not contain any quantitative models or factors for analysis

策 略 研 究 融资资金重回流入，公募基金发行提速 [Table_Authors] 方奕(分析师) 投资者微观行为洞察手册·10 月第 3 期 本报告导读： 本期市场成交热度有所下降，资金层面上偏股基金发行边际抬升，融资资金流入加 速，而外资资金小幅流出 A 股与港股。 投资要点： 策略研究 /[Table_Date] 2025.10.27 | | 021-38031658 | | --- | --- | | | fangyi2@gtht.com | | 登记编号 | S0880520120005 | | | 郭胤含(分析师) | | | 021-38031691 | | | guoyinhan@gtht.com | | 登记编号 | S0880524100001 | | | 田开轩(分析师) | | | 021-38038673 | | | tiankaixuan@gtht.com | | 登记编号 | S0880524080006 | [Table_Report] 相关报告 | 成交活跃度下降，创业板指领涨 2025.10.25 | | --- | | 电子产业链景气延续，耐用品需求透支 | | 2025 ...

Group 1 - The article emphasizes a balanced approach to factor selection, integrating macroeconomic quantitative insights with factor momentum to identify resonant factors while adjusting for discrepancies between macro and micro indicators [1] - Current macroeconomic indicators show signs of economic recovery, slightly loose liquidity, and improved credit metrics, leading to a revised outlook of economic improvement, weak liquidity, and loose credit [1] - The article presents a table summarizing the performance of various factors across different indices, indicating that growth factors remain strong in the CSI 300, while the CSI 500 shows a more balanced factor selection [2][3] Group 2 - Economic leading indicators are beginning to rise, with the PMI and new orders showing increases, suggesting a slight upward trend in economic activity expected to continue into early 2026 [5][9] - The liquidity environment is assessed as slightly loose despite rising interest rates, with a comprehensive liquidity signal indicating a mixed outlook [11][15] - Credit indicators are showing weakness, with a slight positive shift in overall credit metrics, indicating a complex credit environment [15][16] Group 3 - The article suggests a preference for asset allocation towards gold due to strong momentum, while equity allocations are slightly reduced, reflecting a cautious stance on A-shares [16] - The focus of market attention is shifting from liquidity to economic indicators, with recent trends indicating a growing concern for economic performance over liquidity conditions [17] - Industry selection is advised to favor sectors sensitive to economic changes but less affected by liquidity, with public utilities and coal being highlighted as top sectors based on their sensitivity scores [19]

- The "ERP and DRP standardized equal-weight calculation model" is used to compute A-share odds, which as of September end, declined to 0.2 standard deviations, indicating a neutral level[10] - The "macro victory rate scoring card model" synthesizes asset victory rates based on factors like credit and PMI pulses, which recently bottomed out, pushing A-share victory rates to 19%[10] - The "bond odds model" is constructed using the expected yield difference between long and short bonds, with recent bond odds retreating to -0.9 standard deviations, reflecting valuation risks for long bonds[11] - The "bond victory rate model" integrates credit and growth expansion data, showing a decline to -6%, indicating low victory rates[11] - The "AIAE indicator model" for US stocks is at 54%, its historical peak, corresponding to 2.4 standard deviations, signaling high pullback risks[15] - The "Federal Reserve liquidity index model" combines quantity and price dimensions, showing a tightening liquidity index at 20%, a medium-high level[15] Model Backtesting Results - ERP and DRP model: A-share odds at 0.2 standard deviations, victory rate at 19%[10] - Bond odds model: -0.9 standard deviations, victory rate at -6%[11] - AIAE indicator model: 54% historical peak, 2.4 standard deviations[15] - Federal Reserve liquidity index: 20% medium-high level[15] Factor Construction and Evaluation - Value factor: High odds (0.9 SD), medium trend (-0.3 SD), low crowding (-1.4 SD), comprehensive score 3, recommended for focus[19][22] - Small-cap factor: Medium odds (-0.2 SD), strong trend (1.6 SD), medium-low crowding (-0.5 SD), comprehensive score 2.2, configuration value improved[20][23] - Quality factor: High odds (1.4 SD), weak trend (-1.2 SD), medium-low crowding (-0.5 SD), comprehensive score 0.6, recommended for long-term attention[24][26] - Growth factor: Medium-high odds (0.8 SD), medium trend (0.1 SD), high crowding (1.0 SD), comprehensive score 0.1, recommended for standard allocation[27][28] Factor Backtesting Results - Value factor: Odds 0.9 SD, trend -0.3 SD, crowding -1.4 SD, score 3[19][22] - Small-cap factor: Odds -0.2 SD, trend 1.6 SD, crowding -0.5 SD, score 2.2[20][23] - Quality factor: Odds 1.4 SD, trend -1.2 SD, crowding -0.5 SD, score 0.6[24][26] - Growth factor: Odds 0.8 SD, trend 0.1 SD, crowding 1.0 SD, score 0.1[27][28] Strategy Construction and Evaluation - "Odds-enhanced strategy" allocates assets based on odds indicators under volatility constraints, achieving annualized returns of 6.6%-7.5% and maximum drawdowns of 2.4%-3.0% since 2011[39][41] - "Victory rate-enhanced strategy" uses macro victory rate scoring to allocate assets, achieving annualized returns of 6.3%-7.7% and maximum drawdowns of 2.3%-2.8% since 2011[42][44] - "Odds + victory rate strategy" combines risk budgets from both strategies, achieving annualized returns of 7.0%-7.6% and maximum drawdowns of 2.7%-2.8% since 2011[45][47] Strategy Backtesting Results - Odds-enhanced strategy: Annualized returns 6.6%-7.5%, max drawdowns 2.4%-3.0%[39][41] - Victory rate-enhanced strategy: Annualized returns 6.3%-7.7%, max drawdowns 2.3%-2.8%[42][44] - Odds + victory rate strategy: Annualized returns 7.0%-7.6%, max drawdowns 2.7%-2.8%[45][47]

Core Insights - The report indicates that the market is currently in an upward trend, with the WIND All A index showing a positive money-making effect of approximately 0.87% [2][10][15] - The report suggests maintaining a portfolio allocation of 80% in absolute return products based on the current valuation levels of the WIND All A index, which is at the 85th percentile for PE and the 50th percentile for PB, indicating a moderate valuation [11][8] Market Overview - The WIND All A index experienced a slight decline of 0.18% over the past week, with small-cap stocks represented by the CSI 2000 down by 0.02%, mid-cap stocks in the CSI 500 up by 0.32%, and large-cap indices like the CSI 300 and SSE 50 down by 0.44% and 1.98% respectively [9][10] - The report highlights strong performance in sectors such as power equipment and new energy, with new energy stocks rising by 3.61%, while the banking sector saw a decline of 4.09% [9][10] Timing System Analysis - The distance between the short-term (20-day) and long-term (120-day) moving averages continues to widen, indicating a sustained upward trend in the market, with the latest figures showing a 13.57% difference [2][10] - The report emphasizes that as long as the money-making effect remains positive, there is potential for continued inflow of incremental funds into the market [2][10][15] Sector Recommendations - The report recommends focusing on sectors that are likely to benefit from policy-driven growth, including innovative pharmaceuticals, new energy, and chemicals, while also suggesting a renewed focus on precious metals [2][10][15] - The TWO BETA model continues to recommend technology sectors, particularly in computing power and consumer electronics [2][10][15]

Group 1 - The report indicates that the current WIND All A index is in an upward trend, with the trend line positioned around 6106 points and a positive earning effect of approximately 1.9% [2][10] - The report suggests maintaining a balanced allocation in response to increased market volatility, especially as the market enters a significant event window [2][10] - The report highlights that the market's short-term moving average (20-day) is above the long-term moving average (120-day), with the distance between them increasing from 12.15% to 13.19%, indicating a continued upward trend [2][9] Group 2 - The industry allocation model recommends focusing on sectors that are expected to benefit from policy-driven growth, such as chemicals and innovative new energy, while also continuing to support the Hong Kong innovative pharmaceutical sector [2][10] - The report emphasizes the importance of the market's earning effect in sustaining mid-term incremental capital inflows, as long as the earning effect remains positive [2][10] - The report identifies technology sectors, particularly those related to computing power and batteries, as areas of interest based on the TWO BETA model [2][10]