【机构观点分析】 东证期货最新分析认为，周一金价强势上涨2%再创新高，美联储利率会议落地后各位票委开始出来讲 话，最为鸽派的特朗普亲信米兰继周五的鸽派讲话后再度表示应该以50bp的速度持续降息，提振了市场 情绪。鹰派阵营的博斯蒂克则表示年内不再需要降息，同属鹰派的还有哈马克，但目前市场受鸽派的影 响更大，同时对未来美联储货币政策独立性的担心有增无减，未来财政赤字货币化的风险增加。本周预 计黄金波动增加。 Tastylive.com网站：即便处于3700美元的高位也依然没看到做空黄金的理由 BullionVault：黄金和白银市场正在经历"完美风暴" 东证期货：金价再创新高 预计本周波动将增加 中国国际期货早盘观点认为，美联储理事米兰的激进鸽派言论令市场情绪继续偏向乐观，黄金再创历史 新高。另外，地缘风险也促金价上涨。近期英法等多个国家承认巴勒斯坦国，而以色列方面则表现冷， 甚至扬言称其目标不仅在于加沙，并称不再谈两国方案。当下，主要关注美联储主席鲍威尔周二的讲话 和美国最新核心PCE通胀数据，若鲍威尔释放温和信号或PCE数据表现疲软，黄金可能将有更多上涨空 间，反之，则可能出现回调。 中国国际期货：米兰激进鸽 ...

Group 1 - The expectation of a Federal Reserve interest rate cut is increasing, with a projected 25 basis points reduction in the upcoming meeting [1][2] - The U.S. economic data, including a 2.9% year-on-year increase in CPI and a 2.6% year-on-year increase in PPI, supports the Fed's rate cut expectations [2][3] - The industrial metal prices are expected to rise due to improved demand and supply dynamics, with the Zhongzheng Shenwan Nonferrous Metals Index up 58.7% year-to-date [1][2] Group 2 - The industrial metal sector is experiencing a shift from off-peak to peak season, with increased processing rates and supply disruptions providing support for prices [3] - The copper industry is set for growth, with policies aimed at enhancing supply chain resilience and increasing domestic copper resource availability by 5%-10% by 2027 [3] - Companies like Zijin Mining and Luoyang Molybdenum are leading in copper production, with Zijin Mining producing 570,000 tons in the first half of 2025 [6] Group 3 - The prices of non-ferrous metals have shown an upward trend, with copper, tungsten, and molybdenum prices increasing by 10%, 102%, and 21% respectively since the beginning of the year [5] - A significant number of companies in the non-ferrous metal sector reported profitability, with 129 out of 141 companies achieving profits in the first half of 2025 [5] - Companies such as Zijin Mining and Luoyang Molybdenum reported substantial increases in net profits, with Zijin Mining's net profit rising by 18.8% in Q2 2025 [5][6]

Core Viewpoint - The People's Bank of China (PBOC) is gradually incorporating government bond trading into its monetary policy toolkit to manage liquidity and support economic growth, reflecting a cautious approach compared to major developed economies [1][5][8]. Group 1: Central Bank Bond Trading Practices - Major developed economies, including the US, Japan, and the Eurozone, have utilized government bond trading extensively as a tool for liquidity adjustment and quantitative monetary policy since the 2008 financial crisis [2][3]. - The scale of government bonds held by central banks in these economies has significantly increased, with the Federal Reserve holding $5.77 trillion in US government bonds by June 2022, accounting for 64.7% of its total assets [2][3]. - The Bank of Japan's bond holdings reached approximately $5.3 trillion by the end of 2020, representing 76.5% of its total assets, indicating aggressive bond purchasing strategies [2][3]. Group 2: China's Central Bank Strategy - The PBOC's bond trading strategy is characterized by caution, having only engaged in limited short-term bond trading in specific circumstances over the past decades [5][6]. - As of May 2025, the PBOC held approximately 2.4 trillion yuan (about $338.3 billion) in government bonds, which is significantly lower than the holdings of central banks in developed countries [13][14]. - The PBOC's bond trading is designed to be flexible and responsive, allowing for small-scale, short-term operations to maintain liquidity without causing significant market disruptions [9][14]. Group 3: Future Directions and Policy Focus - The PBOC is expected to maintain a steady pace of increasing its government bond holdings, with a focus on balancing liquidity needs and market stability [16][18]. - There is a need for the PBOC to align its bond trading operations with fiscal policy expansion and the overall economic growth trajectory, ensuring that bond supply meets market demand [19][20]. - The central bank's bond trading operations will likely remain limited by the overall supply of government bonds and the fiscal constraints on debt expansion [15][19].

连平 王运金（连平系广开首席产业研究院院长兼首席经济学家、中国首席经济学家论坛理事长） 本文首发于《中国外汇》2025年第15期 鉴于经济高质量发展、经济结构深度转型和培育新动能的需要，未来一个时期我国有较大可能仍会维持扩张性财政政策。与此相适 应，货币政策将保持适度宽松基调，继续做好政策间的协同配合，灵活调节市场流动性以满足政府债券发行与内需扩张的资金需 求。从货币政策需求出发，未来我国央行可能需要显著增加国债持有规模。2024年以来，央行国债交易操作引起市场广泛关注。本 文结合全球主要发达国家央行购债的实践，探讨未来我国央行开展国债交易的操作空间。 一、主要发达国家央行持续大规模增持国债 上世纪后期以来，国债交易已逐步演变成为美国、日本、欧元区等主要发达国家或地区央行主要的货币政策数量型工具。尤其是在 2010年之后，欧洲主权债务危机使得国际金融市场与各国政府意识到政府债务问题的严重性，国际投资者对政府债券类低风险、高 等级债券的投资趋向理性。在经济增长明显放缓甚至衰退之时，主要发达国家财政政策不得不大幅增加赤字、扩大支出以拉动需 求，其央行则大规模量化宽松"为财政托底"。2010年底美联储所持有的美国国 ...

Group 1 - The long-term outlook indicates that the dollar credit system is under challenge due to excessive monetary issuance and the monetization of fiscal deficits, leading to increased demand for gold as a safe asset amid global geopolitical instability [1] - The trend of "de-dollarization" globally suggests that gold may become a new pricing anchor, providing upward momentum for precious metals [1] - The People's Bank of China continues to increase its gold reserves, reporting a total of 73.9 million ounces as of the end of June, with an increase of 70,000 ounces month-on-month, marking the eighth consecutive month of gold accumulation [1] Group 2 - The gold stock ETF (code: 517400) tracks the SSH Gold Stock Index (code: 931238), which is compiled by China Securities Index Co., Ltd., selecting 50 large-cap listed companies involved in gold mining, smelting, and sales from the mainland and Hong Kong markets [1] - The index constituents include gold mining companies and jewelry firms, reflecting significant industry concentration characteristics [1] - Investors without stock accounts can consider the Cathay CSI Shanghai-Shenzhen-Hong Kong Gold Industry Stock ETF Initiated Link C (021674) and Initiated Link A (021673) [1]

7月18日凌晨，纽约交易员詹姆斯紧盯屏幕：美国零售销售数据超预期增长0.6%，初请失业金人数降至三个月最低点。美元指数瞬间飙升至98.95的月内高 点，黄金应声跌至3309美元。就在他准备平仓之际，金价却上演深V反转，最终收于3338美元，仅微跌0.25%。这场"假摔"背后，正是当前黄金市场的真实 写照——在震荡中孕育机会。 1、乱局中的黄金迷局 2025年的黄金市场犹如行走在政策钢丝上。美联储高层罕见地公开分裂：理事库格勒打出"鹰派重拳"，警告必须维持限制性政策遏制关税引发的通胀；而旧 金山联储主席戴利却坚持"年内降息两次"的鸽派立场，认为关税影响可控。更令人意外的是，理事沃勒突然抛出"7月应降息25个基点"的震撼观点。 这种政策矛盾直接投射到金价走势上。7月21日亚市早盘，黄金因美欧关税谈判乐观消息而低开，但旋即又在沃勒鸽派言论支撑下企稳。日线图上，金价始 终运行在60日均线上方，形成了一道隐形的支撑带。 而在地缘层面，全球央行正悄然改写游戏规则。我国央行连续8个月增持黄金，分析师推测其实际储备可能已突破5000吨，远超官方公布的2280吨。这种"去 美元化"趋势正蔓延至多国央行——世界黄金协会数据显示， ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided 2. Core Views of the Report - The tariff situation has heated up again, the market risk appetite has declined, and short - term market hedging demand has increased, causing the gold price to break through an important level [2]. - The jump in the implied annualized lease rate of London spot silver indicates a surge in investment demand leading to tight inventories, providing strong support for the silver price, which may continue to rise in the short term [2]. - Gold prices may still be driven by three factors: the Fed's dovish policy expectation suppressing real interest rates, the risk of US fiscal deficit monetization pushing up sovereign credit premiums, and geopolitical uncertainty maintaining hedging demand [2]. - The long - term supply - demand tightness of silver provides price support. However, due to the large uncertainty in inflation prospects and the swing of rate - cut expectations, and the silver price being at a high level since 2012, it may face some short - term correction risks [2]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Futures Market - The closing price of the Shanghai gold main contract is 781.4 yuan/gram, up 7.84 yuan; the closing price of the Shanghai silver main contract is 9207 yuan/kilogram, up 167 yuan [2]. - The position of the Shanghai gold main contract is 191,083 lots, up 9,151 lots; the position of the Shanghai silver main contract is 448,095 lots, up 45,139 lots [2]. - The net position of the top 20 in the Shanghai gold main contract is 133,792 lots, up 2,823 lots; the net position of the top 20 in the Shanghai silver main contract is 147,543 lots, up 16,243 lots [2]. - The warehouse receipt quantity of gold is 28,857 kilograms, up 4,272 kilograms; the warehouse receipt quantity of silver is 1,223,982 kilograms, down 79,611 kilograms [2]. 3.2现货市场 - The spot price of gold on the Shanghai Non - ferrous Metals Network is 774.2 yuan/gram, up 3.5 yuan; the spot price of silver on the Shanghai Non - ferrous Metals Network is 9168 yuan/kilogram, up 182 yuan [2]. - The basis of the Shanghai gold main contract is - 7.2 yuan/gram, down 4.34 yuan; the basis of the Shanghai silver main contract is - 39 yuan/kilogram, up 15 yuan [2]. 3.3 Supply and Demand Situation - The gold ETF position is 947.64 tons, down 1.16 tons; the silver ETF position is 14,758.52 tons, down 131.41 tons [2]. - The non - commercial net position of gold in CFTC is 202,968 contracts, up 988 contracts; the non - commercial net position of silver in CTFC is 58,521 contracts, down 4,879 contracts [2]. - The total supply of gold in the quarter is 1,313.01 tons, up 54.84 tons; the total supply of silver in the year is 987.8 million troy ounces, down 21.4 million troy ounces [2]. - The total demand for gold in the quarter is 1,313.01 tons, up 54.83 tons; the global total demand for silver in the year is 1,195 million ounces, down 47.4 million ounces [2]. 3.4 Option Market - The 20 - day historical volatility of gold is 11.62%, up 0.73%; the 40 - day historical volatility of gold is 13.69%, down 0.36% [2]. - The implied volatility of at - the - money call options for gold is 19.53%, down 0.02%; the implied volatility of at - the - money put options for gold is 19.53%, down 0.03% [2]. 3.5 Industry News - Trump has imposed tariffs on 25 trading partners in four batches from July 7 to July 12, with tax rates ranging from 20% to 50% [2]. - The 35% tariff on Canada does not apply to goods meeting the US - Mexico - Canada Agreement, and Canada will not double its retaliatory tariffs on steel and aluminum as originally planned [2]. - Trump has criticized Fed Chairman Powell multiple times this year for not announcing rate cuts, and the probability of the Fed maintaining interest rates in July is 93.3% [2].

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No investment rating information is provided in the report. 2. Core Views - **Market Drivers**: In the short - term, the precious metals market is driven by policy expectations and risk - aversion sentiment. The progress of tariff negotiations and the Fed's policy path are key variables. In the medium - to long - term, the supporting logic for precious metals remains unchanged due to factors like fiscal deficit monetization risks in the US [8]. - **Gold Outlook**: Short - term, gold may see increased safe - haven demand if tariff agreements are not reached by August 1st; otherwise, it may continue to fluctuate. The Fed's policy and real interest rates will dominate price movements. Long - term, factors such as the US fiscal deficit and dollar credit risks support gold [8]. - **Silver Outlook**: Silver has been strong recently, supported by long - term supply - demand tightness. However, there is short - term callback pressure due to uncertain inflation prospects and reduced speculative long positions [8]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Weekly Highlights - **Market Performance**: Gold prices fluctuated this week. Threats of new tariffs by Trump initially pushed up gold, but the rebound of the dollar and rising US Treasury yields limited the upside. Later, improved economic data and profit - taking by some long - positions pressured gold. The Fed's mixed signals also increased price volatility. Silver has been relatively strong, but there is short - term callback pressure [8]. - **Fund Flows**: Global gold ETFs added $38 billion in the first half of the year, and central bank gold purchases continued. However, CFTC speculative net long positions declined, indicating intensified short - term capital games [8]. - **Outlook**: Short - term, the market is driven by policy and risk - aversion. Medium - to long - term, the supporting factors for precious metals remain [8]. 3.2 Futures and Spot Markets - **Price Changes**: As of July 11, 2025, COMEX silver rose 2.51% to $38.015 per ounce, and Shanghai silver futures rose 1.07% to 9040 yuan per kilogram. COMEX gold rose 0.02% to $3343.7 per ounce, while Shanghai gold futures fell 0.25% to 773.56 yuan per gram [11]. - **ETF Holdings**: As of July 10, 2025, SLV silver ETF holdings increased 0.3% to 14,890 tons, and SPDR gold ETF holdings increased 0.1% to 948.81 tons [16]. - **COMEX Positions**: As of July 1, 2025, COMEX gold total positions rose 0.62% and net positions rose 3.58%. COMEX silver total positions fell 6.33% and net positions rose 0.72% [21]. - **CFTC Positions**: As of July 1, 2025, COMEX gold non - commercial long positions increased 1% and non - commercial short positions decreased 7.24% [26]. - **Basis**: As of July 10, 2025, the gold basis rose 25.68% to - 4.08 yuan per gram, and the silver basis rose 41.18% to - 20 yuan per kilogram [29]. - **Inventory**: As of July 10, 2025, COMEX gold and silver inventories decreased, while Shanghai Futures Exchange gold and silver inventories increased [34]. 3.3 Industry Supply and Demand - **Silver Industry**: As of May 2025, Chinese silver imports decreased by 2.46%, while silver ore imports increased by 10.54%. In May 2025, the monthly output of integrated circuits increased by 11.5% [40][45]. - **Silver Supply - Demand**: In 2024, silver industrial demand rose 4%, coin and bar demand fell 22%, and ETF net investment demand turned positive. Total demand fell 3%. Supply increased 2%, and the supply - demand gap decreased by 26% [51][55]. - **Gold Industry**: As of July 10, 2025, gold recycling and jewelry prices decreased slightly [61]. - **Gold Supply - Demand**: In Q1 2025, gold industrial demand increased, investment demand increased by 71.93%, jewelry demand decreased by 10.47%, and total demand increased by 7.12% [67]. 3.4 Macroeconomic and Options - **Macroeconomic Data**: This week, the US dollar index rose, the 10 - year US Treasury yield was flat, the 10Y - 2Y Treasury yield spread narrowed, the CBOE gold volatility decreased, and the SP500/COMEX gold price ratio continued to rise. The 10 - year break - even inflation rate in the US declined slightly [69][74][77]. - **Central Bank Actions**: In July 2025, the Chinese central bank increased its gold reserves by about 1.86 tons for the eighth consecutive month [81].

Group 1 - The core viewpoint indicates that the Solana trading ecosystem has a 90% probability of regulatory approval, positioning it as a preferred refuge for capital fleeing traditional finance amid significant policy shifts and economic pressures [1][3]. - The U.S. Treasury is facing structural challenges, with debt interest payments reaching a 30-year high of 3.06% of GDP, while core CPI remains stubbornly at 2.8%, prompting unprecedented monetary policy interventions [1][4]. - Market expectations have shifted decisively, with CME interest rate futures showing an 80% probability of a rate cut in September, and two rate cuts becoming the baseline scenario for the year [1][4]. Group 2 - The SEC's technical inquiries into the Solana ETF are in the final stages, focusing on compliance mechanisms for staking rewards and physical redemption processes, marking a significant breakthrough for the PoS ecosystem into traditional finance [3][4]. - Solana's staking annualized yield of 5.2% presents a competitive advantage over traditional Bitcoin ETFs, with Bloomberg estimating that a newly approved Solana ETF could attract $14 billion in incremental funds within 12 months [3][4]. - The White House's declaration to create a "cryptocurrency capital" resonates with the regulatory shift, contributing to a 278% increase in the SOL token this year, significantly outperforming mainstream cryptocurrencies [3][4]. Group 3 - Recent trade data shows that 55% of the tariff costs imposed by the U.S. on China are being absorbed by companies, with May PPI only slightly increasing by 0.1%, indicating a failure in price transmission mechanisms [4][5]. - The pressure in the debt market is escalating, with the Congressional Budget Office projecting an additional $551 billion in interest expenses over the next decade due to new tax legislation [4][5]. - The cryptocurrency ETF is effectively taking on a debt monetization role, with Solana's staking mechanism providing investors a structured tool to combat the depreciation of the dollar's credit [4][5]. Group 4 - The current market dynamics suggest a dangerous balance based on policy expectations, with an 82% probability of rate cuts and a 90% approval expectation for the Solana ETF creating a twin bubble [7][8]. - Any failure in these expectations could trigger a revaluation of cross-market values, indicating potential volatility as the new financial order emerges [7][8].

Group 1: Capital Market Overview - Global major asset classes are performing flat, reflecting the difficulty in finding certainty amid weak economic demand [2] - The pause in the tariff war has led to a temporary end to stock market valuation recovery, resulting in an overall calm market [2] - The automotive sector is experiencing adjustments due to inventory buildup and price competition, while sectors like environmental protection and biomedicine have seen some rebounds [2] Group 2: Economic Fundamentals - China's PMI data shows signs of stability but indicates a fragile recovery due to weak domestic demand and ongoing trade tensions [3] - The manufacturing PMI in China rose from 49.0% to 49.5%, while the non-manufacturing business activity index decreased slightly to 50.3% [3] - In the U.S., the manufacturing PMI recorded 48.5%, indicating a contraction for the third consecutive month, with most demand and output indicators showing a downward trend [4][5] Group 3: External Shocks - The U.S. has increased steel import tariffs to 50%, which is seen as a step to reduce reliance on China, exacerbating trade tensions [7] - The ongoing conflict in Ukraine is expected to prolong the situation and may escalate, impacting global stability and investor sentiment [8] - The emergence of stablecoins is viewed as a potential solution to debt issues, as they can enhance bond purchasing power and may lead to inflationary pressures in the long term [9] Group 4: Strategic Recommendations - In the face of increasing uncertainty, a prudent strategy is to remain inactive and conserve resources for future opportunities [10]