历时43天的美国联邦政府"停摆"终于在上周三（11月12日）画下句点。美国参众两院达成共识并通过临 时拨款法案，随后由总统特朗普签署，使得这场史无前例的政治僵局暂告结束。接下来，美国政府面临繁 重的"开机"任务：补发数周欠薪、重启积压的拨款与贷款申请、恢复庞大的行政服务。交通部长 Sean Duffy 表示，航班限制将在一周内逐步解除，恰逢感恩节出行高峰。而国会预算办公室（CBO）预计，六 周停摆将使四季度GDP下滑1.5个百分点，造成约110亿美元净损失。 而值得注意的是，这份临时法案只能让大部分政府机构获得运作资金至2026年1月30日，医保福利支出的 核心分歧也并未彻底解决，为数月内下一次政府"停摆"之争又埋下了伏笔。 "停摆"常态化背后： 债务灰犀牛全面冲击财政体系 其次，政府重启开门后，前期市场担忧的流动性状况有望进一步改善。由于大量发债以及政府关门，财政 部普通账户（TGA）余额从7月的3000亿美元上升至11月的近万亿美元。随着政府结束停摆，前期财政部 TGA账户吸收的巨额现金有望部分得到释放，缓解前期市场流动性不足的局面，当前担保隔夜融资利率 （SOFR）相对联邦基金利率（EFFR）、超额准备 ...

金价在突破每盎司4000美元大关后，全球知名投资机构瑞银再次释放积极信号，看好黄金未来走势。 瑞银财富管理投资总监办公室（CIO）在11月21日发布的最新报告中，将2026年年中黄金目标价从之前的每盎司4200美元上调至4500美元，涨幅达7.14%。 同时，瑞银将上行目标价从4700美元上调至4900美元，下行目标维持在3700美元不变。 这意味着瑞银认为，从现在到2026年年中，黄金仍有超过12%的潜在上涨空间。 01 金价表现强劲 黄金无疑是2025年表现最亮眼的资产类别之一。 今年以来，国际金价涨幅已接近60%，近期价格虽高位震荡，但仍稳定在每盎司4000美元以上。 10月份，黄金曾飙升至每盎司近4400美元的历史高点，随后回落至4000美元以下。 在最新的报告中，瑞银分析师指出，"回调已经暂时到位，在技术因素之外，我们认为没有抛售的根本原因。潜在需求仍然强劲"。 02 多重因素推动上涨 瑞银此次上调金价预期，并非凭空而来，而是基于一系列支撑黄金上涨的利好因素。 美联储降息预期是其中的关键因素。瑞银在报告中明确指出，美联储预期降息、实际收益率下降，将推动2026年黄金需求进一步上升。 实际收益率下降会 ...

在日本市场动荡之际，18日，高市早苗和日本央行行长植田和男举行会谈。19日，日本财务大臣片山皋 月、经济财政大臣城内实与植田和男举行了三方会谈。片山在会谈后表示，政府与日本央行将保持高度 紧张感关注市场动向，保持细致的沟通。 尽管财政恶化已导致日元显著走弱，但片山指出会谈中"没有讨论汇率"。关于货币政策，她称日本央行 仍维持既有方针：如果实现2%通胀目标的可能性增加，将会温和推进加息。她同时表示，央行还是会 调整金融宽松的力度，除此之外没有其他感想。 市场为何如此恐慌？ 《金融时报》分析称，高市早苗10月就任首相后，投资者便预期巨额财政支出计划将推动日本国债收益 率上升。法国兴业银行利率策略师斯蒂芬·斯普拉特指出，"如今政策正进入实际执行阶段，市场更进一 步担忧财政风险——若追加预算规模如当前讨论般庞大，日本恐将不得不增发国债。" 报道认为，高市政府之所以想要扩大财政支出规模，与日本经济目前面临的持续下行风险有关。日本政 府周一公布的初步数据显示，日本三季度实际国内生产总值按年率计算下降1.8%，自2024年第一季度 以来再次出现负增长。 20日，日本国债抛售潮仍在持续。印度《经济时报》当天以"世界第三大债券 ...

Economic Impact - The U.S. government shutdown resulted in an estimated economic loss of $18 billion, with about half of this loss potentially being irrecoverable [1][4][18] - The shutdown caused a significant reduction in GDP due to the furlough of hundreds of thousands of federal employees and contractors, leading to decreased productivity and interrupted government services [4][7] Industry Effects - Various industries experienced direct impacts, such as a small company in Washington D.C. that lost a government contract due to halted project approvals, resulting in layoffs [7] - A defense equipment supplier in Texas faced delayed payments from the military, leading to cash flow issues and the need to request loan extensions [9] Consumer Behavior - Local businesses, such as restaurants in Arlington, Virginia, reported a nearly 50% drop in lunchtime traffic due to reduced spending by federal employees [9] - Consumers became more cautious with their spending, leading to decreased sales tax revenue and stalled community projects [9] International Trade - The shutdown delayed customs safety certifications for a California electronics company, causing missed shipping windows and financial penalties [12] Macroeconomic Policy - The shutdown disrupted the Federal Reserve's ability to assess economic conditions accurately, delaying monetary policy adjustments [13] Government Financial Management - Although the shutdown reduced government spending temporarily, subsequent wage payments and contract penalties increased overall costs, raising concerns about the government's fiscal management [17] - Rating agencies indicated that repeated shutdowns could lead to a reassessment of the U.S. fiscal creditworthiness [17] Long-term Outlook - The shutdown's effects on the economy may lead to a contraction in consumer spending and market demand, exacerbated by the announcement of additional tariffs on Chinese imports [18][19] - Calls for budget reform and the establishment of emergency funds have emerged as potential solutions to prevent future shutdowns [19]

Core Insights - The Governor of the French Central Bank, François Villeroy de Galhau, warned that without addressing budget and debt issues, the French economy faces the risk of "gradual suffocation" [1][2] - Moody's recently downgraded France's sovereign rating outlook, reflecting concerns over political instability and severe budget issues [1][2] Economic Situation - France's public debt has reached €3.3 trillion, with the government deficit projected to be 5.4% of GDP in 2025, only slightly improved from 5.8% the previous year [1] - The IMF forecasts that if no policy adjustments are made, the deficit rate could expand to 5.8% in 2026 and further to 6.2% in 2027 and 2028, remaining around 6.3% in 2029 and 2030 [1] Interest Rates and Investment - Higher interest rates have increased borrowing costs for households and businesses, leading to a shift in funding away from priority areas like defense and environmental initiatives [2] - Economic uncertainty has resulted in increased savings among the public and delayed investments by companies [2] Taxation and Fiscal Policy - The controversial "Zuckerman tax" (wealth tax) is being discussed as a measure for achieving "tax fairness" in the 2026 budget [2] - The wealthiest individuals are perceived to benefit from tax reductions through various mechanisms, prompting calls for reform [2] Future Outlook - Despite the negative outlook from rating agencies, the French Central Bank Governor expressed confidence in a moderate growth rate of approximately 0.7% for 2025, indicating that France remains a leading country in job creation in Europe over the past decade [2]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint indicates that the euro is facing downward pressure due to economic uncertainties in France and a deteriorating economic situation, which is reflected in rising bond yields [1][2] - France's debt-to-GDP ratio is projected to reach 114.1% by the end of Q1 2025, ranking third in the Eurozone, only behind Greece (152.5%) and Italy (137.9%) [1] - The recent political instability in France, marked by the appointment of a new Prime Minister, has not alleviated market concerns, as evidenced by the downgrade of France's credit rating by S&P on October 17 [1] Group 2 - The euro's recent increase was primarily due to the weakness of the dollar rather than any inherent strength of the euro itself, suggesting that the euro's internal weakness will dominate its future movements [2] - Technical analysis indicates that the euro against the dollar is likely to maintain a downward trend, with resistance levels identified at 1.1675 and support levels at 1.1630-1.1635 [3] - The steepening yield curve reflects investors demanding higher premiums to compensate for the accumulating budget deficits and expected increases in sovereign bond issuance risks [1]

Core Insights - Gold and silver prices have reached historical highs, with spot gold touching $4080 per ounce and COMEX gold futures surpassing $4100 per ounce, marking increases of approximately 55% and 56% year-to-date respectively [1] - Silver prices have surged over 70% this year, outperforming gold [1] Market Performance - On October 13, the A-share precious metals sector rose nearly 7%, with notable gains in stocks such as Western Gold (601069) and Zhaojin Gold (000506) [3] - U.S. gold stocks also saw pre-market gains, with Coeur Mining rising over 7% and other companies like Harmony Gold and Barrick Mining showing significant increases [3] Gold Jewelry Prices - Domestic gold jewelry prices have increased, with major brands adjusting their prices upwards; for instance, Chow Tai Fook raised its price from 1180 to 1190 yuan per gram [3][4] Investment Sentiment - Huatai Futures Research Team maintains a "cautiously bullish" stance on gold and silver, citing tariff risks and ongoing expectations for monetary easing as factors driving prices higher [5] - The precious metals index has risen over 113% this year, significantly outperforming the broader market, with several stocks doubling in value [5][6] Stock Performance - Notable stock performances in the precious metals sector include Zhaojin Gold with a 254.66% increase and Western Gold with a 187.34% increase year-to-date [6] - Hunan Gold has the smallest increase among the listed stocks at 49.21% [6] Risk Advisory - Silver YS (601212) issued a risk warning after its stock price surged 40.10% over four consecutive trading days, indicating potential for future declines [7]

Group 1 - The precious metals sector surged nearly 7% on October 13, with notable stocks like Western Gold and Zhaojin Gold experiencing significant gains [1] - Spot gold reached a historical high of $4,078 per ounce, while spot silver increased by over 2% to $51.71 per ounce [1] - Domestic gold jewelry prices exceeded 1,190 RMB per gram, with major brands adjusting their prices upwards [1][2] Group 2 - The precious metals index has increased by over 113% this year, outperforming the broader market [3] - Stocks such as Zhaojin Gold and Western Gold have seen their prices double, with Zhaojin Gold up by 254.66% and Western Gold by 187.34% [4] - Hunan Gold had the smallest increase among the listed companies, with a rise of 49.21% [4]

Group 1 - The precious metals sector surged nearly 7% on October 13, with notable stocks like Western Gold, Zhaojin Gold, and others experiencing significant gains [2] - Spot gold reached a historical high of $4,078 per ounce, while spot silver increased over 2% to $51.71 per ounce [2] - Huatai Futures research team indicated that renewed tariff risks and ongoing expectations for monetary easing are driving gold prices to new highs [2] Group 2 - The U.S. government shutdown has delayed the release of key economic data, which is perceived as a significant fiscal risk, prompting the market to seek safe-haven assets, thus boosting gold prices [2] - There remains strong uncertainty regarding the Federal Reserve's interest rate cut path, but the market leans towards a potential cut in October, providing further support for gold [2]

Report Industry Investment Rating - Gold: Cautiously bullish [3] - Silver: Cautiously bullish [3] - Arbitrage: Short the gold-silver ratio at high levels [4] - Options: Put on hold [4] Core View of the Report - The resurgence of tariff risks and the continuation of easing expectations have jointly pushed the gold price to continuously hit new historical highs. The U.S. federal government shutdown, although causing the delay of important economic data releases, is itself regarded as an obvious manifestation of fiscal risks, prompting the market to seek safe-haven assets and boosting the gold price. The uncertainty of the Fed's interest rate cut path remains high, but the market still expects a rate cut in October, which also supports the gold price. The silver price is currently strong, hitting a new historical high. There is a need to repair the gold-silver price ratio. However, due to the relatively large volatility of silver, more attention should be paid to position control and strict stop-loss execution when operating [3]. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs Market News and Important Data Macroeconomic Aspects - In the week of October 10, 2025, gold and silver continued their strong performance. U.S. President Trump announced that starting from November 1, a new 100% tariff would be imposed on Chinese imports, an additional part on top of the existing paid tariffs. The U.S. will also implement export controls on "all key software" on the same day, significantly increasing tariff risks. The bill proposed by the U.S. Republicans to end the government shutdown failed to obtain enough votes in the Senate, and the overall U.S. fiscal risk remains prominent. The minutes of the September FOMC meeting showed that there were increasing differences within the Fed regarding the future interest rate cut path. Although most officials supported further rate cuts this year, 7 officials believed that no further cuts were needed, and only Fed Governor Milan supported a larger 50-basis-point cut. The market has strengthened the pricing of a rate cut in October, with the Fedwatch showing a 98.3% probability of a 25-basis-point cut in October [1]. Fundamental Aspects - In the week of October 10, 2025, the Shanghai Futures Exchange's gold warehouse receipts remained unchanged at 70,728 kilograms from the previous week, while silver warehouse receipts decreased by 23,221 kilograms to 1,169,061 kilograms. In the Comex inventory, this week's Comex gold inventory decreased by 170,212.58 ounces to 39,940,669.57 ounces, and Comex silver inventory decreased by 9,409,653.79 ounces to 522,463,797.41 ounces. In the precious metal ETFs, in the week of October 10 (currently the latest), the gold SPDR ETF holdings increased by 2.28 tons to 1,017.16 tons, and the silver SLV ETF holdings increased by 274.06 tons to 15,444 tons. As of September 23, 2025, in terms of CFTC positions, the net long speculative positions in gold increased by 0.13% to 266,749 contracts, and the net long positions in silver increased by 1.43% to 52,276 contracts. In the week of October 10, 2025, the CSI 300 Index fell by 0.51% from the previous week, the electronic components sector index related to precious metals fell by 2.49%, and the photovoltaic sector fell by 0.05%. As of September 29, 2025 (the latest), the photovoltaic price index was reported at 15.74, up 0.01 from the previous period. As of September 15, 2025, the photovoltaic manager index was reported at 119.66, a month-on-month decrease of 5.43 [2]. Strategy - Gold: Cautiously bullish. The resurgence of tariff risks and the continuation of easing expectations jointly push the gold price to continuously hit new historical highs. The U.S. federal government shutdown, although causing the delay of important economic data releases, is itself regarded as an obvious manifestation of fiscal risks, prompting the market to seek safe-haven assets and boosting the gold price. The uncertainty of the Fed's interest rate cut path remains high, but the market still expects a rate cut in October, which also supports the gold price [3]. - Silver: Cautiously bullish. The silver price is currently strong, hitting a new historical high. There is a need to repair the gold-silver price ratio. However, due to the relatively large volatility of silver, more attention should be paid to position control and strict stop-loss execution when operating [3]. - Arbitrage: Short the gold-silver ratio at high levels [4]. - Options: Put on hold [4].