金十数据7月24日讯，瑞银财富管理的Magdalene Teo表示，日本股市因美日贸易协议而上涨，但日债市 场则认为该协议加剧财政风险，可能使本已庞大的政府债务进一步增加。东京方面承诺将在美国投资 5500亿美元，这在资本外流方面可能对日本信用构成负面影响，并可能拖累日元和日本经济。与此同 时，执政联盟实力减弱，使政府更可能向在野党妥协，同意下调消费税并增加现金发放。Teo指出，本 周40年期日本国债拍卖吸引的需求创下自2011年以来最低，反映出市场因财政风险而避开买盘。收益率 若长期高企，将在经济不确定性持续之际推高日本政府的融资成本。 宝盛集团：美日协议加剧财政风险 日债市场承压 ...

分析师：关税协议落地财政风险重回主导，日元和国债或面临新一轮压力 金十数据7月23日讯，悉尼澳联邦银行策略师Carol Kong表示，日元在美日贸易协议公布后短暂走强， 反映市场认为15%的关税税率属理想结果。但随着焦点转回财政前景，日本国债和日元可能重现疲软 ——鉴于市场已部分消化协议预期，且政府扩大支出始终压制日元汇率。 ...

Group 1: Core Logic Supporting Gold Prices - The increasing fiscal situation in the U.S. is a fundamental factor supporting gold prices, with the potential addition of $3.4 trillion in debt over the next decade due to the "Build Back Better" plan, and a debt ceiling increase of $5 trillion, exacerbating the current $36.2 trillion debt level [3][6] - The dual accumulation of fiscal and political risks has triggered a global capital reallocation, influenced by the rising political atmosphere following Musk's announcement of forming the "American Party" [3][6] Group 2: Trade Frictions and Policy Volatility - Trump's trade policies, including a recent 50% tariff on copper imports, have stirred market sentiment and raised concerns about global economic slowdown, leading to increased inflows of safe-haven funds into the gold market [7][9] - The uncertainty in trade policies is impacting consumer confidence and business investment, prompting a reallocation of global capital away from U.S. assets towards gold as an alternative safe-haven [9] Group 3: Federal Reserve Policies and Interest Rate Dynamics - The traditional inverse relationship between interest rates and gold prices is being restructured, as gold prices have risen despite actual U.S. interest rates exceeding 2% [10][13] - Market expectations regarding the Federal Reserve's potential shift in policy, including possible interest rate cuts due to inflation concerns, are contributing to the current dynamics where both gold and interest rates may rise simultaneously [10][13] Group 4: Central Bank Gold Purchases and Market Structure - Continuous gold purchases by central banks, particularly in emerging markets, are becoming a significant support for gold prices, driven by motives such as diversification of foreign exchange reserves and hedging against geopolitical risks [13] - The shift in demand from private investors to official institutions marks a structural change in the gold market, reflecting a trend of "de-dollarization" in response to U.S. fiscal deficits [13] Group 5: Short-term Volatility and Long-term Trends - Short-term fluctuations in gold prices are influenced by technical and sentiment factors, with current prices nearing key resistance levels around $3,335 per ounce [14] - Long-term drivers for gold remain rooted in structural uncertainties in the global economy and politics, including ongoing U.S. fiscal deficits and fluctuating trade policies, reinforcing gold's role as a "backup safe-haven asset" [17]

Group 1: Global Economic Outlook - The report highlights the exposure of fiscal risks, indicating potential global liquidity shocks [3][7][18] - A shift from globalization to confrontation has disrupted the stable state of the global economy, with the long-term downward trend of 10-year US Treasury yields being broken [7][18] - The divergence between US Treasury yields and the dollar reflects an extreme pricing of fiscal risks [9][14] Group 2: Domestic Economic Conditions - Domestic deflation expectations are easing, activating a persistent accumulation of excess liquidity [3][57] - The report notes that actual interest rates are declining from high levels, which alleviates the financing costs for various economic sectors [78] - The report indicates that the actual dollar index is building a mid-term top, which may relieve external pressures on the economic cycle [82] Group 3: A-Share Market Dynamics - The A-share market is experiencing rapid rotation within a narrow range, driven by excess liquidity [3][57] - Small-cap stocks are expected to outperform due to the accumulation of excess liquidity since 2024 [118][121] - The report identifies key sectors for investment, including AI, robotics, and military industries, which have shown resilience amid trade tensions [117] Group 4: Industry Allocation Insights - The report emphasizes the correlation between excess liquidity and sectoral excess returns, particularly in sectors like electrical machinery and chemical materials [121][124] - The report suggests that the market is not driven by improved economic expectations but rather by key technological breakthroughs that shift deflation expectations [91] - The report indicates that the speed of industry rotation has increased, suggesting a dynamic market environment [104]

Group 1 - The "Great Beauty" Act, signed by Trump on July 4, 2023, will lead to further fiscal easing in the U.S., providing short-term support for economic growth but potentially causing secondary inflation risks and delaying Fed rate cuts, raising concerns about U.S. fiscal sustainability [1][10][12] - The final version of the "Great Beauty" Act has a larger deficit compared to the House version, with changes including the removal of Clause 899, an increase in the federal debt ceiling, and tightened conditions for Medicaid eligibility [1][10] - The Act is expected to have significant long-term effects across various industries, providing tax and subsidy advantages to traditional energy, manufacturing, real estate, military, and agriculture sectors while cutting benefits for clean energy, electric vehicles, healthcare, and food sectors [10][11] Group 2 - The Act will allow for the resumption of oil and gas leasing auctions on public lands and waters, and it maintains policies for real estate companies to fully deduct property improvement costs [11] - A budget of approximately $150 billion will be allocated over the next five years for large military projects, including shipbuilding and missile defense systems [11] - The semiconductor industry will see an increase in tax credits from 25% to 35% for new factories built in the U.S., with projects needing to commence by the end of 2026 [11] Group 3 - The "Great Beauty" Act represents a significant expansion of U.S. fiscal policy, which may require rate cuts to support this expansion amid high deficits and debt concerns [12][15] - The current fiscal expansion differs from previous cycles due to unexpected fiscal growth, changes in economic fundamentals, tariff uncertainties, and cracks in dollar credit [12][15] - The narrative around major asset classes is expected to fluctuate between "economic weakness," "data resilience," and "fiscal risk," impacting pricing for U.S. Treasuries, equities, the dollar, gold, and oil [15]

Market Overview - The US dollar index is expected to slightly decline this week, having dropped over 10% in the first half of the year, marking its worst performance since 1973 [1] - Spot gold has risen significantly, gaining over $100 per ounce, driven by a weaker dollar, increased expectations for Fed rate cuts, trade negotiation uncertainties, and concerns over fiscal risks from the "Big and Beautiful" plan [1] - The euro has appreciated nearly 14% this year, reaching a high of 1.1830 this week, as investors seek safety in European assets amid US policy fluctuations [1] Economic and Policy Developments - Goldman Sachs has moved its expectation for the Fed to restart rate cuts from December to September, predicting three consecutive cuts totaling 75 basis points [5] - Morgan Stanley reports that US tariff revenues are annualized at $327 billion, which is detrimental to economic growth, advising investors to favor US Treasuries and short the dollar [5] - The US non-farm payroll data showed an increase of 147,000 jobs in June, with the unemployment rate unexpectedly dropping to 4.1%, leading to reduced bets on a July rate cut [6] Trade and Tariff Updates - President Trump announced unilateral tariffs ranging from 10% to 70% on trade partners, effective August 1, which is higher than previously proposed rates [8] - The US has reached a trade agreement with Vietnam, allowing US goods to enter Vietnam at zero tariffs, while imposing a 20% tariff on Vietnamese exports to the US [10] Legislative Actions - The US House of Representatives passed the "Big and Beautiful" tax and spending bill, which is approximately $3.4 trillion in size, with supporters claiming it will benefit all income levels through tax cuts [11] - The bill is criticized by Democrats as "robbing the poor to pay the rich," with projected costs exceeding $4.5 trillion over the next decade [11] Corporate Developments - Tesla reported a 13.5% year-over-year decline in Q2 vehicle deliveries, totaling 384,122 units, yet its stock surged nearly 5%, adding $48.1 billion to its market cap due to better-than-expected performance [17] - Robinhood, Bybit, and Kraken have launched stock tokenization services, allowing 24/7 trading of US stocks, marking a significant shift in the trading landscape [18][19] AI and Talent Acquisition - Apple is considering using technology from Anthropic or OpenAI for its new Siri version, indicating a potential shift from its in-house AI development [20] - Meta has hired at least eight key researchers from OpenAI, reflecting a competitive talent acquisition strategy in the AI sector [21]

Group 1 - Swiss bank analysts predict at least one more interest rate cut in the Eurozone this year due to uncertainties in trade negotiations and economic growth risks [1] - Societe Generale strategists expect the 10-year German government bond yield to remain in the range of 2.40%-2.80% by the end of the year, with an anticipated steepening of the yield curve [1] - Monex Europe analysts warn that the British pound faces further depreciation risks as the market has not fully absorbed the fiscal risks associated with the UK [3] Group 2 - Australian economists highlight that the current US tariff policy poses a significant threat to global economic growth, with the average tariff rate rising to 20% from 3% earlier this year [2] - BlackRock maintains an optimistic outlook, suggesting that the US policy environment is gradually becoming favorable for risk assets, particularly equities and credit bonds [2] - Moody's indicates that Japan's potential large-scale tax cuts due to election pressures could negatively impact its credit rating, depending on the extent and duration of the cuts [3]

Group 1 - The long-term bond market is experiencing significant volatility due to rising government borrowing demands and expanding deficits, leading to higher yield requirements from investors [1][4] - The UK has become a focal point of this turmoil, with the Chancellor's proposed £50 billion welfare cuts being rejected, raising concerns about the government's fiscal discipline and resulting in a sharp increase in 30-year UK bond yields [1][4] - The sensitivity of long-term bonds to fiscal risks is attributed to their illiquid market, where even minor sell-offs can lead to substantial price drops and yield spikes [3][4] Group 2 - Various governments, including the US, Japan, and Australia, are reconsidering their issuance strategies for long-term bonds in light of high interest rates and fiscal concerns [4][6] - Japan's recent announcement to reduce the issuance of long-term bonds has led to a temporary stabilization in demand for its 30-year bonds, although yields still rose due to global market pressures [6][7] - Investors are increasingly favoring short-term bonds over long-term ones due to the heightened sensitivity of the latter to fiscal and political risks, as well as the demand for higher yields as compensation for these risks [7]

Group 1 - HSBC has significantly raised its gold price forecast for 2025 from $3015 to $3215 per ounce, and for 2026 from $2915 to $3125, reflecting a 7.2% increase [1] - The bank attributes the long-term value of gold to the evolving global risk landscape and rising sovereign debt, noting that gold's role as a safe-haven asset increases during economic uncertainty and geopolitical tensions [1] - As of July 1, 2023, international gold prices are fluctuating around $3360 per ounce, with expectations that prices will range between $3100 and $3600 for the remainder of 2025, and a target price of $3175 by the end of 2025 [1] Group 2 - The report highlights a significant correlation between gold price movements and central bank purchasing behavior, indicating that if gold prices exceed $3300, central banks may slow their buying pace [2] - If gold prices retreat to around $3000, it could trigger a new wave of reserve asset allocation, while sustained prices above $3500 may lead to demand pressures in major consumer markets like India and China [2] - The market is closely monitoring U.S. policy developments, including potential tax reform and trade tensions, which could inject further uncertainty into the gold market [2]

Core Viewpoint - The current Middle East tensions are redefining the concept of "safe haven" in the markets, with oil prices soaring and stock markets declining, while traditional safe-haven assets like U.S. Treasuries are being sold off [1][6]. Group 1: Market Reactions - Oil prices have surged significantly, impacting foreign exchange markets, where traditional safe-haven currencies have underperformed [2][3]. - The initial reaction saw the U.S. dollar rise, reflecting traditional safe-haven behavior, but this was reversed during the New York trading session as stock markets rebounded [2]. Group 2: Currency Performance - Traditional safe-haven currencies, such as the Japanese yen and Swiss franc, have weakened against the U.S. dollar, showing a strong negative correlation with Brent crude oil prices [3]. - Oil-related currencies like the Norwegian krone and Canadian dollar have performed well, aligning with their sensitivity to oil price movements [3]. - Other currencies displayed mixed performance, with the Swedish krona and New Zealand dollar underperforming, while the euro depreciated moderately, maintaining above 1.15 against the dollar [3]. Group 3: Bond Market Dynamics - The bond market has reacted unexpectedly, with significant sell-offs in global core sovereign bonds rather than the anticipated inflow of "safe haven" funds [3]. - The rise in actual interest rates was largely influenced by better-than-expected U.S. sentiment data, contributing to the increase in rates [3]. - Rising oil prices have led to increased inflation expectations, with the U.S. 10-year breakeven rising by 2 basis points and real yields increasing by 5 basis points [3]. Group 4: Changing Safe Haven Logic - The dynamics in the U.S. Treasury market are shifting due to concerns over fiscal and inflation risks, as well as expectations of increased supply [4][6]. - The weakening of the safe-haven status of U.S. Treasuries is attributed to inflation worries and rising sovereign debt supply [6]. - Unless there is clear evidence that geopolitical tensions will lead to global growth slowdown or reduced inflation, U.S. Treasuries may take longer to regain their traditional safe-haven qualities [6].