②米兰：未来"有可能"再次缩减其资产负债表。 ③美联储10月会议纪要显示官员们存在严重分歧：10月降息行动中，有数人反对降息，还有一些人倾向 于降息但也接受维持利率不变。数人认为应该在12月继续降息，许多人认为应按兵不动。 英国通胀七个月来首次回落，市场加大对英国央行12月降息的押注。 欧盟筹划第20轮对俄制裁，目标直指"影子舰队"油轮。 11月20日资讯分享 周三，现货黄金盘中一度冲高至4130美元/盎司上方，但在强势美元的限制下日内涨幅大幅收窄，最终 收涨0.26%，报4078.22美元/盎司； 受美国重新推动俄乌和谈的消息影响，国际原油盘中跳水。WTI原油失守60美元关口，最终收跌 1.96%，报59.4美元/桶；布伦特原油最终收跌1.89%，报63.26美元/桶。 俄乌局势重大进展：据悉美俄双方秘密拟定28点和谈框架，要求乌克兰割地、裁军及限制武器。该框架 的讨论几乎没有征求乌克兰或欧洲的意见。白宫预计俄乌将于11月底前达成框架协议。据报乌克兰反对 该协议。 美联储——①美国当局取消10月非农就业报告，11月报告改期至12月16日公布，即美联储在12月议息时 将缺乏最新的非农数据参考。 ...

转自：新华财经 •港深联手打造全球金融科技高地 •"互换通"扩容在即 南向机制酝酿中 【资讯导读】 •特朗普炮轰美联储：称鲍威尔"极度无能" •美联储内部就降息分歧明显 缩表共识强烈 【市场资讯】 •香港财经事务及库务局与深圳市地方金融监督管理局联合发布《携手打造港深全球金融科技中心行动 方案（2025–2027年）》，明确未来三年将围绕六大重点方向深化协同，共建具有全球竞争力的金融科 技生态体系。 •香港金管局副总裁李达志透露，"互换通"将扩大交易商名单并优化流动性管理工具；证监会市场监察 部执行董事梁仲贤表示，南向"互换通"已进入探讨阶段，以更好服务国际投资者需求。 •美国总统特朗普再度批评美联储主席鲍威尔，称利率过高；"真想解雇鲍威尔，鲍威尔极度无能"；应 起诉其"建设成本问题"；并称其当选以来，股市在九个月内达到了46次创纪录的高点，以前所未有的方 式提振了美国人和经济，工人工资以60年来最高的速度上升。 •美联储10月FOMC会议纪要显示，决策层在上月降息时存在严重分歧，但普遍支持年内暂停加息；几 乎所有成员同意立即终止量化紧缩，部分人担忧股市无序下跌带来的金融风险。 •道琼斯工业指数上涨0.1%报 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The hawkish stance of the Fed's monetary policy has significantly pressured the market's expectations of the Fed's interest rate cuts, pausing the previous strong performance of gold and silver prices. However, Powell's statement on the balance sheet is a key turning point, and a long - position approach to gold and silver prices should be maintained as the Fed will end the balance sheet reduction on December 1st, providing a solid reason for the subsequent expansion of the balance sheet [2]. - Structurally, the tight supply situation of overseas silver spot cannot be completely resolved. China's photovoltaic silver demand is resilient, and India's silver imports are expected to rise in the fourth quarter. The gold - silver ratio is still significantly higher than the historical average. It is recommended to go long on silver on dips [3]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs 3.1 Market Quotes - On November 10, 2025, Shanghai gold rose 0.25% to 919.96 yuan/gram, and Shanghai silver rose 0.10% to 11,405.00 yuan/kilogram. COMEX gold was reported at 4007.80 US dollars/ounce, and COMEX silver was reported at 48.23 US dollars/ounce. The US 10 - year Treasury yield was 4.11%, and the US dollar index was 99.62 [2]. 3.2 Policy Analysis - In the October FOMC meeting, Powell carried out a "hawkish interest rate cut", lowering the policy rate by 25bps to 3.75% - 4.00% while taking a hawkish stance on the subsequent interest rate path. He believed that the December interest rate cut was not certain, and the pace of interest rate cuts could slow down if economic data continued to be missing due to a government shutdown. He also thought inflation was still high and had rebounded recently [2]. - 2026 FOMC voter and hawkish official Hamark emphasized inflation risks on November 6, believing that monetary policy might not be ready to handle the current inflation level, and the current economic environment was not conducive to further interest rate cuts [2]. - New York Fed President Williams said the neutral interest rate was difficult to estimate, with the model showing 1%, and emphasized the resilience of inflation [2]. - Powell announced that the Fed would end the balance sheet reduction on December 1st due to obvious pressure in the money market, and the real - world situation after the meeting confirmed his statement on liquidity, providing a reason for the subsequent balance sheet expansion [2]. 3.3 Strategy Suggestions - In the precious metals sector, the tight supply of overseas silver spot is difficult to resolve. China's photovoltaic silver demand is resilient, and India's silver imports are expected to rise. The gold - silver ratio as of November 7 was 82.3, significantly higher than the historical average since 1971. It is recommended to go long on silver on dips. The reference operating range for the main Shanghai gold contract is 880 - 966 yuan/gram, and for the main Shanghai silver contract is 11,001 - 12,366 yuan/kilogram [3]. 3.4 Data Statistics - Gold and silver price, trading volume, open interest, inventory, and other data on November 7, 2025, showed that most indicators had certain changes compared with the previous day, such as the closing price of COMEX gold active contract rising 0.58% to 4007.80 US dollars/ounce, and the trading volume rising 8.30% to 19.89 million lots [5]. - As of November 7, 2025, the internal - external price differences of gold and silver were calculated, including SHFE - COMEX and SGE - LBMA price differences [54].

上海期货交易所指定交割仓库期货周二（11月4日）仓单日报显示，黄金期货总计87816千克，今日仓单 较上一日持平。 美联储内部分歧正在加剧。多位美联储官员则以不同形式表达了对12月再次降息可能性的担忧。美联储 10月如期降息25个基点，将联邦基金利率下调至3.75%-4.00%，为年内第二次降息；并宣布自12月1日起 结束资产负债表缩减。美联储主席鲍威尔表示，12月是否进一步降息"远非已成定局"，政府停摆导致数 据缺失，可能影响后续决策。目前市场预期美联储12月降息25基点概率维持70%左右。美元指数和美债 收益率震荡偏强。 | | 期货 | 增减 | | --- | --- | --- | | 上期所指定交割金库 | 87816 | 0 | 中美吉隆坡经贸磋商成果共识公布。美方将取消针对中国商品加征的10%所谓"芬太尼关税"，对中国商 品加征的24%对等关税将继续暂停一年。 沪金主力盘内高位震荡，周二（11月4日）黄金期货开盘价921.90元/克，截至目前最高92586元/克，最 低912.08元/克。截止发稿报915.58元/克，跌幅0.50%，成交量为332993手，持仓为144602手，日持仓减 少6 ...

【黄金期货最新行情】 | 10月30日 | 收盘价（元/克） | 当日涨跌幅 | 成交量（手） | 持仓量（手） | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 沪金主力 | 912.16 | 0.82% | 412100 | 163611 | 打开APP，查看更多高清行情>> 中美元首将于当地时间周四上午11点在韩国釜山会晤。 今日凌晨，美联储如期降息25个基点，将联邦基金利率下调至3.75%-4.00%，为年内第二次降息；并宣 布自12月1日起结束资产负债表缩减。声明指出通胀仍处高位，就业下行风险上升，货币政策保持适度 限制性。美联储主席鲍威尔表示，12月是否进一步降息"远非已成定局"，政府停摆导致数据缺失，可能 影响后续决策。 【机构观点】 兴业期货：黄金：中美两国首脑将于今日会晤。昨晚美联储如期降息25bp，并宣布12月结束缩表，但鲍 威尔向市场释放偏鹰信号，为12月降息预期降温。黄金价格仍处于阶段性回调休整阶段，但长线向上逻 辑并未发生根本性逆转。策略上，黄金多头配置的底仓可耐心持有，担心风险者可构建领口期权保护期 货或现货多头。 白银：随着中美两国首脑会晤在即，以及美联储主 ...

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - There is no information about the report industry investment rating in the provided content. Group 2: Core Viewpoints of the Report - Short - end Treasury bonds rose, and the yield of the active 10 - year Treasury bond remained at 1.8125%. The central bank's open - market reverse repurchase operation had a net injection of 4195 billion yuan, and Shibor short - end varieties declined collectively, easing the tightness of the capital market. The central bank governor stated that it would continue to adhere to a supportive monetary policy stance and implement a moderately loose monetary policy. The Fed cut interest rates by 25 basis points as expected and announced the end of QT, but Powell's hawkish remarks on the prospect of a December interest rate cut led to a decrease in the market's probability of a December rate cut and a rebound in US Treasury yields. The domestic economy showed mixed performance, with the real - estate sector still in adjustment. With the central bank's supportive monetary policy and the resumption of open - market Treasury bond trading operations, market liquidity is expected to remain reasonably abundant, which will support the short - end Treasury bond futures prices [3]. Group 3: Summary by Relevant Catalogs Futures Market - **Price and Yield**: On the previous trading day, Treasury bond futures prices showed mixed trends. For example, the T2512 contract rose 0.14%. The IRR of the CTD bonds corresponding to the main Treasury bond futures contracts was at a low level, with no arbitrage opportunities. The short - term market interest rates generally declined, such as SHIBOR 7 - day rate down 1.8bp, DR007 rate down 2.56bp, and GC007 rate down 2.5bp [2]. - **Volume and Position**: The trading volume and open interest of various Treasury bond futures contracts changed. For instance, the open interest of T2512 increased by 7086, while that of TL2512 decreased by 1892 [2]. - **Spread**: The inter - term spreads of some contracts changed. For example, the inter - term spread of T2512 - T2603 increased from 0.3150 to 0.330 [2]. Spot Market - **Domestic Bond Yields**: The yields of China's key - term Treasury bonds showed mixed trends. The 10 - year Treasury bond yield rose 0.1bp to 1.82%, and the long - short (10 - 2) Treasury bond yield spread was 30.67bp [2]. - **Overseas Bond Yields**: The yields of US and German 10 - year Treasury bonds and Japanese 10 - year Treasury bonds all rose. The US 10 - year Treasury bond yield rose 9bp, the German 10 - year Treasury bond yield rose 1bp, and the Japanese 10 - year Treasury bond yield rose 1bp [2]. Macro News - **Central Bank Operations**: On October 29, the central bank conducted 5577 billion yuan of 7 - day reverse repurchase operations, with a net injection of 4195 billion yuan after deducting the maturing reverse repurchases [3]. - **Sino - US Relations**: Chinese President Xi Jinping will meet with US President Trump in Busan, South Korea on October 30 to exchange views on Sino - US relations and common concerns [3]. - **Fed Policy**: The Fed cut interest rates by 25 basis points and announced the end of QT. However, Powell's remarks led to a decrease in the market's expectation of a December rate cut [3]. - **Economic Data**: In the first nine months, the total operating income of state - owned enterprises was 61.33 trillion yuan, with a year - on - year increase of 0.9%, and the total profit was 3.17 trillion yuan, with a year - on - year decrease of 1.6%. As of the end of September, the asset - liability ratio of state - owned enterprises was 65.2%, up 0.2 percentage points year - on - year [3]. Industry Information - **Money Market Rates**: Most money market interest rates declined. For example, the weighted average interest rate of the 1 - day inter - bank pledged repurchase fell 6.42bp to 1.4045%, and the 7 - day rate fell 1.28bp to 1.5452% [3]. - **US Treasury Yields**: US Treasury yields rose collectively. The 2 - year US Treasury yield rose 10.62bp to 3.592%, and the 10 - year yield rose 9.82bp to 4.074% [3].

美联储主席鲍威尔表示，12月是否进一步降息"远非已成定局"，政府停摆导致数据缺失，可能影响后续 决策。美联储内部对后续路径存在显著分歧，部分官员主张至少等待一个会议周期再做决定。 周四（10月30日）亚洲时段，美元小幅走软，99关口摇摇欲坠，最新美元指数报99.02，跌幅0.14%，今 日美元走势关注99.50附近的压力情况，下方支撑在98.50附近。得益于美联储主席鲍威尔成功扭转了市 场对12月再度降息的强烈预期，美元指数昨日震荡上行，收复99.00关口，尾市收于99.16，涨幅 0.44%。 今日凌晨，美联储如期降息25个基点，将联邦基金利率下调至3.75%-4.00%，为年内第二次降息；并宣 布自12月1日起结束资产负债表缩减。声明指出通胀仍处高位，就业下行风险上升，货币政策保持适度 限制性。 美联储理事米兰再次投了反对票，他希望降息50个基点。美联储施密德则希望维持利率不变。 据Politico报道，美国政府停摆近一个月，情况似乎终于开始转变。迫在眉睫的关键截止日期、加上外 部的压力，正在为已经停滞数周的跨党派对话增添新的紧迫性。参议院多数党领袖John Thune及其参议 院盟友、众议院议长迈克·约 ...

周四（10月30日）亚洲时段，经历上一交易日上涨后美元恢复跌势，最新美元指数报99.05，跌幅 0.11%，美联储主席鲍威尔打压了市场对12月份再次降息的预期，周三美元指数扩大涨幅，最终收涨 0.44%，报99.16。 美联储主席鲍威尔表示，12月是否进一步降息"远非已成定局"，政府停摆导致数据缺失，可能影响后续 决策。 美联储内部对后续路径存在显著分歧，部分官员主张至少等待一个会议周期再做决定。 美元技术分析 从技术上来看，美元指数周三上涨在99.35之下遇阻，下跌在98.60之上受到支持，意味着美元短线下跌 后有可能保持上涨的走势。如果美指今天下跌在98.75之上企稳，后市上涨的目标将会指向99.55--99.80 之间。今天美元走势短线阻力在99.50--99.55，短线重要阻力在99.75--99.80。今天美指短线支持在99.05- -99.10，短线重要支持在98.75--98.80。 美债收益率低位盘整，基准的10年期美债收益率最终收报4.0760%，对美联储政策利率敏感的2年期美 债收益率收报3.6040%。 今日凌晨，美联储如期降息25个基点，将联邦基金利率下调至3.75%-4.00%，为年 ...

Summary of FOMC October Meeting Recap Industry Overview - The document discusses the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) and its monetary policy decisions, particularly focusing on interest rates and economic indicators. Key Points and Arguments 1. **Interest Rate Adjustment**: The FOMC lowered the target range for the funds rate by 25 basis points to 3.75-4% during the October meeting [2][3][4] 2. **Balance Sheet Management**: The FOMC announced that balance sheet runoff would conclude at the start of December, with principal payments of mortgage-backed securities being reinvested solely into Treasury bills [3][4] 3. **Inflation Insights**: Chair Powell indicated that inflation, excluding tariff effects, is nearing the 2% target, with tariff impacts estimated to have raised prices by 0.5-0.6% [4][12] 4. **Labor Market Trends**: Alternative data suggests a gradual cooling in the labor market, which aligns with the analysis presented [4][10] 5. **Hawkish Tone**: Powell's press conference was more hawkish than anticipated, avoiding references to the September dot plot that suggested a third cut in December [5][8] 6. **Diverse Opinions within FOMC**: Powell acknowledged differing views among FOMC members regarding the December cut, with some advocating for a wait-and-see approach [6][7] 7. **Data Collection Challenges**: The government shutdown has hindered the release of official economic data, complicating the FOMC's decision-making process [11] 8. **Future Policy Stance**: Powell views the current monetary policy as modestly restrictive, which may necessitate another cut unless the labor market stabilizes by December [12] Additional Important Insights - **Market Reactions**: The bond market perceived Powell's statements as a hawkish surprise, indicating potential volatility in response to future policy changes [5][8] - **Labor Market Weakness**: There is a belief that genuine labor market weakness exists, which could lead to negative payroll reports and further complicate the economic outlook [10][11] - **Risk Management Cuts**: There is substantial opposition within the FOMC regarding risk management cuts, suggesting a complex internal dynamic influencing policy decisions [8][9] This summary encapsulates the critical aspects of the FOMC's October meeting, highlighting the implications for monetary policy and economic conditions.

转自：新华财经 新华财经北京10月30日电（郭洲洋）美联储联邦公开市场委员会（FOMC）会议后，美联储主席杰罗姆 ·鲍威尔召开新闻发布会，就当前美国经济状况、货币政策调整及未来展望进行了详细阐述。 鲍威尔指出，现有数据表明美国经济前景未有太大变化，正在温和扩张。停摆前的数据显示，经济可能 正朝着更稳固的轨道发展；政府停摆将暂时拖累经济活动。劳动力市场似乎正在逐步降温，就业面临的 下行风险似乎有所上升。但失业救济金申请人数较低，表明劳动力市场仅呈逐步降温态势，并未明显快 速下滑；如果数据显示就业市场好转，将会影响决策。 对于当前的经济环境，鲍威尔认为，经济各领域均未出现明显恶化，美联储今年迄今已采取了正确行 动。预计今年经济增长率将在1.6%左右，低于去年水平。 而展望12月会议，鲍威尔指出，需要考虑12月利率行动的不确定性，12月的利率下调"远非"已成定 局。"私营部门数据不能取代政府统计数据，在政府停摆期间，美联储不太可能对经济有非常细致的了 解。"鲍威尔表示，可以想象，政府停摆可能会影响12月的会议，在缺乏数据的情况下，可能有必要更 加谨慎，经济数据缺失可能构成暂停利率调整的理由。 美联储FOMC声明宣布 ...