Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Positive" investment rating for the non-ferrous and steel industry in China [6]. Core Viewpoints - The report emphasizes the importance of future positioning rather than past defensive strategies, suggesting that investors should focus on opportunities for excess returns in the upcoming year [9][15]. - Gold prices are expected to experience high volatility in the short term but are projected to reach new highs in the medium term due to credit and safe-haven demand [16]. - The rare earth sector is anticipated to maintain its strategic importance despite short-term price declines, with a widening supply-demand gap expected in the medium term [17]. - The copper market is viewed positively, with expectations of price increases in the medium term, encouraging investors to buy on dips [17]. Summary by Sections 1. Non-Ferrous Metals - Gold: Short-term volatility is high, but medium-term prospects are strong with expectations of new highs supported by credit and safe-haven demand [16]. - Rare Earths: Short-term price declines do not diminish the medium-term strategic position, with an anticipated widening supply-demand gap [17]. - Copper: Strong medium-term price outlook, with a recommendation to buy on dips due to expected economic recovery and increased manufacturing investment [17]. 2. Steel Industry - Profitability: Short-term profitability is under pressure, with both prices and costs declining [28]. - Supply and Demand: Weekly rebar consumption decreased to 2.2 million tons, down 8.84% week-on-week and 14.77% year-on-year [24][18]. - Inventory: Both social and steel mill inventories have increased, indicating a potential oversupply situation [25]. - Prices: The overall steel price index has slightly decreased, with specific products like hot-rolled steel experiencing a notable drop [38]. 3. New Energy Metals - Supply: Significant increase in lithium production, with August 2025 output reaching 80,040 tons, up 46.54% year-on-year [42]. - Demand: High growth in new energy vehicle production and sales, with August 2025 figures showing a 26% increase year-on-year [48]. - Prices: Lithium prices have risen, with battery-grade lithium carbonate averaging 75,750 yuan per ton, reflecting a 3.55% week-on-week increase [55].

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the recent surge in gold and silver prices, highlighting their historical highs and the implications of current market conditions, including overbought signals and the influence of the US dollar index on commodity prices [1][3][5]. Gold and Silver Market Performance - Last week, the international spot gold price opened at $3,887.25, peaked at $4,058.90, and closed at $4,018.09, marking an increase of $132.19 or 3.40% [1]. - The spot silver price rose by 4.86%, closing at $50.27, also a historical high [3]. - The gold and silver indices continue to show strong upward trends, with the wellxin precious metal index reaching 8,239.17 points, up 3.02% [3]. Technical Analysis - The gold market is currently in a significantly overbought state, with various technical indicators such as the MACD and RSI reaching historical highs, indicating potential risks of a market peak [12][15][17]. - The silver market also shows signs of overbought conditions, with the price reaching $51.23, close to the upper Bollinger Band, suggesting a possible technical peak [14]. Market Influences - The strong performance of precious metals is occurring despite a rising US dollar index, which opened at 98.03 points and closed at 98.82 points, up 1.15% [3]. - The article notes that the recent comments from former President Trump regarding trade tensions with China have negatively impacted the commodity market, leading to declines in oil and basic metals [7]. ETF Holdings - As of October 10, the largest gold ETF, SPDR Gold Trust, reported holdings of 1,017.16 tons, an increase of 2.3 tons from the previous week [20][22]. - The largest silver ETF, iShares Silver Trust, reported holdings of 15,443.76 tons, up 273.82 tons from the previous week [22].

Core Viewpoint - International gold prices have reached new highs, driven by expectations of interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve, leading to significant inflows into the non-ferrous metals sector, particularly highlighted by the surge in the non-ferrous metal ETF (159876) which attracted 75.6 million yuan in just two days, reaching a new high of 207 million yuan as of September 2 [1][3]. Group 1: Gold Market Dynamics - On September 2, spot gold in London surpassed $3,500 per ounce, marking a new high, with Morgan Stanley projecting a year-end target of $3,800 per ounce [3]. - Multiple institutions predict that after four months of consolidation, precious metals are poised to enter a new upward trend [3]. - The macroeconomic environment is characterized by increased fiscal dominance in the U.S., leading to a trend of abundant dollar liquidity, which is favorable for global risk assets and supports gold as an anti-inflation asset [3]. Group 2: Non-Ferrous Metals Sector Outlook - The non-ferrous metals sector is experiencing a tight supply-demand balance, with high growth prospects due to several factors: 1. Supply-side improvements are expected as "anti-involution" initiatives accelerate the clearance of excess capacity, enhancing profitability for non-ferrous enterprises [3]. 2. Demand from emerging industries such as new energy, infrastructure, artificial intelligence, and robotics is increasing the need for non-ferrous metals [3]. 3. The global economic recovery, coupled with a depreciating dollar, is supporting non-ferrous metal prices [3]. - The industrial metals sector is currently undervalued, indicating potential for upward valuation adjustments, with a bullish market for non-ferrous metals beginning to take shape [4]. Group 3: Investment Strategy - The non-ferrous metal ETF (159876) and its linked funds are designed to track the CSI Non-Ferrous Metals Index, which includes significant weights in copper (25.3%), aluminum (14.2%), rare earths (13.8%), gold (13.6%), and lithium (7.6%), providing a diversified investment approach [5]. - The ETF's performance reflects a strategy to mitigate risks associated with investing in single metal sectors, making it suitable for inclusion in investment portfolios [5].

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the increasing political influence of the Trump administration over the Federal Reserve, particularly through recent personnel changes that could undermine the Fed's independence and affect monetary policy decisions [2][3][4]. Group 1: Importance of the Board of Governors - The Federal Reserve Board of Governors consists of 7 members with a 14-year term, designed to minimize political interference [3]. - The President has the authority to fill vacancies but requires "just cause" to remove members, which typically refers to serious misconduct rather than policy disagreements [3][4]. - Control over the Board can indirectly allow the President to influence the appointment of regional Federal Reserve Bank presidents, thereby impacting the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) and monetary policy [3][4]. Group 2: Historical Context and Current Trends - Historically, the power to veto or dismiss regional Federal Reserve Bank presidents has never been exercised, but recent political divisions within the Board suggest a shift towards increased politicization [4]. - The independence of the Federal Reserve has been challenged during periods of significant political pressure, particularly in the 1960s and 1970s when fiscal dominance was prevalent [5]. Group 3: Potential Future Actions by Trump - If Trump gains control of 4 votes on the Board, he could significantly influence FOMC personnel decisions [6]. - The expected steps include securing a majority on the Board before the 2026 regional Federal Reserve Bank president elections, replacing current presidents, and establishing a dovish team aligned with Trump's policies [6]. - This could lead to the implementation of accommodative monetary policies, such as interest rate cuts and quantitative easing [6]. Group 4: Asset Implications - The article suggests that fiscal dominance may lead to a weaker dollar and benefit assets like gold, while also positively impacting emerging market equities [7]. - The anticipated economic recovery, coupled with low interest rates, could elevate inflation expectations and support sectors such as manufacturing, military, and energy infrastructure [7].

Core Viewpoint - The U.S. economy showed slight deceleration in Q2, but remains resilient, with GDP growth at an annualized rate of 3.0%, exceeding expectations. The Federal Reserve maintained interest rates, but internal divisions are growing, with a less than 50% probability of a rate cut in September [1][2][25]. Economic Performance - The U.S. Q2 actual GDP grew at an annualized rate of 3.0%, surpassing the expected 2.4% and previous -0.5%. The year-on-year GDP growth was 2.0%, consistent with prior values. PCE inflation for Q2 was 2.1%, below the expected 2.9% and previous 3.7% [1][17]. - Private consumption contributed positively to GDP, increasing from 0.3% to 1.0%, while private investment saw a decline from 3.9% to -3.1%. Net exports shifted from a negative contribution of -4.6% to a positive 5.0% [7][17]. Federal Reserve Actions - The Federal Reserve decided to keep the federal funds rate unchanged at 4.25-4.5%, aligning with market expectations. Notably, two Fed governors voted against the decision, advocating for a 25 basis point cut, marking a rare occurrence of dissent [1][17]. - Fed Chair Powell indicated that current monetary policy is moderately restrictive, with inflation remaining a concern. He noted that tariffs are beginning to affect prices and that future inflation impacts are expected [17][19]. Market Reactions - Following the Fed's decision, U.S. Treasury yields and the dollar rose, while stock markets and gold prices fell. The S&P 500 and Dow Jones indices decreased by 0.1% and 0.4%, respectively, while the 10-year Treasury yield increased by 4.6 basis points to 4.37% [19][25]. - Market expectations for a rate cut in September dropped significantly, with implied probabilities falling from 70% to 44%, and the anticipated number of cuts for the year reduced from 1.8 to 1.4 [2][25]. Economic Outlook - The U.S. economy is expected to experience a soft landing, supported by factors such as balance sheet repair, loose monetary policy, and favorable fiscal conditions. However, inflation risks remain, and the Fed is likely to prioritize inflation control over rate cuts [2][27].

Economic Performance - The US Q2 GDP growth rate was 3.0%, exceeding expectations of 2.4% and rebounding from a previous value of -0.5%[1] - Year-on-year GDP growth remained stable at 2.0%, consistent with the previous value[1] - PCE inflation for Q2 was 2.1%, lower than the expected 2.9% and previous 3.7%[1] Consumption and Investment - Private consumption contributed a 1.0% increase to the GDP, up from 0.3%, with durable goods and services consumption rising, while non-durable goods saw a slight decline[2] - Private investment's contribution dropped from 3.9% to -3.1%, with inventory changes negatively impacting the GDP by -3.2%[2] - Government spending's contribution improved from -0.1% to 0.1%, while net exports shifted from -4.6% to 5.0%[2] Federal Reserve Actions - The Federal Reserve maintained the federal funds rate at 4.25-4.5%, aligning with market expectations, but two board members voted against this decision advocating for a 25 basis point cut[3] - This marked the first instance in over 30 years where two board members opposed a decision, indicating potential future leadership changes within the Fed[3] Market Reactions - Following the Fed's meeting, US Treasury yields and the dollar rose, while stock markets and gold prices fell[4] - The implied probability of a rate cut in September dropped from 70% to 44%, with expectations for only one rate cut remaining in 2025[4] Economic Outlook - The US economy is likely to experience a soft landing, with inflation risks still present, suggesting caution regarding expectations for rate cuts[5] - The current economic conditions, supported by various fiscal measures, indicate that the Fed will prioritize inflation control over aggressive rate cuts in the near term[5]

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the contrasting performance of the U.S. stock market and the commodity market, highlighting the strong performance of gold and other precious metals amid rising risk aversion and uncertainty in global economic policies, particularly due to Trump's trade policies and fiscal measures [1][11][14]. Market Performance - Last week, the international spot gold price opened at $3,271.90, reaching a high of $3,365.39 and a low of $3,247.11, closing at $3,335.00, an increase of $61.61 or 1.88% [1]. - The U.S. dollar index opened at 97.21, peaked at 97.42, and closed at 96.98, down 0.26% [3]. - The Wellxin precious metals index (gold, silver, palladium, platinum) opened at 6,719.49 points, closing at 6,866.84 points, up 2.14% and reaching a historical high [3]. - Silver prices rose by 2.60%, platinum by 3.81%, and palladium by 0.26% [3]. Stock Market Trends - The Dow Jones index increased by 2.30%, the Nasdaq by 1.62%, and the S&P 500 by 1.72%, indicating strong performance in the U.S. stock market [6][8]. - The article notes a significant divide in market sentiment, with both risk aversion and risk preference appearing to strengthen [6]. Precious Metals and Commodities - The demand for safe-haven assets has boosted the performance of precious metals, with overall gains exceeding 2% and silver prices reaching a 13-year high [7]. - In contrast, the commodity market, particularly basic metals, has shown weaker performance, indicating a lack of clear direction [9]. Economic and Policy Implications - The article highlights concerns from the Bank for International Settlements (BIS) regarding the impact of Trump's trade protectionist policies on global economic uncertainty and inflation risks [11]. - A UBS survey indicates a rising trend among central banks to increase gold reserves, with 52% planning to do so in the next year, reflecting a shift towards gold as a hedge against geopolitical risks [12]. - The IMF warns that Trump's fiscal policies could exacerbate the U.S. deficit, potentially leading to a financial crisis [13]. Technical Analysis and Future Outlook - The article suggests that the current hesitation in the commodity market may not last long, with potential upward trends if the U.S. dollar continues to weaken [19]. - Observations of the NYMEX crude oil prices indicate a possible bullish trend despite recent fluctuations, supported by technical indicators [21][23]. - The article concludes that the macroeconomic environment remains complex, with potential implications for inflation and commodity demand [14][15].

Core Viewpoint - The Federal Reserve Governor Cook indicates that tariffs may increase the likelihood of a cooling job market and exacerbate inflationary pressures [1] Group 1 - Tariffs are suggested to have a direct impact on the employment market, potentially leading to a slowdown [1] - The imposition of tariffs is linked to heightened risks of rising inflation [1]

Group 1 - International spot gold prices experienced a significant drop, falling over 2% to a low of $3,220 per ounce, with COMEX gold futures hitting a low of $3,228 per ounce, down $281.6 from the historical high of $3,509.9 per ounce on April 22, representing a decline of over 8% [1] - Domestic gold jewelry prices have also decreased, with brands like Lao Miao and Chow Tai Fook adjusting their prices to 995 yuan per gram and 1,009 yuan per gram respectively, marking the first time in 20 days that prices fell below 1,000 yuan [1] - In Shenzhen, a major gold jewelry hub, prices dropped to 780 yuan per gram, and merchants are offering discounts on processing fees to attract customers during the holiday [3] Group 2 - The decline in gold prices is attributed to multiple factors, including a reduction in demand for safe-haven assets due to easing international trade tensions, and profit-taking by investors amid high market sentiment [3] - Ahead of the Labor Day holiday, Chinese traders sold nearly 1 million ounces of gold futures and spot gold, leading to a decrease in total holdings compared to historical highs [3] - Despite the short-term decline, long-term market conditions, including ongoing risk aversion and expectations of interest rate cuts, are expected to support gold prices [5] Group 3 - The recent volatility in gold prices has prompted exchanges to take notice, with the Shanghai Futures Exchange adjusting trading fees and margin levels for gold futures contracts [6] - Several domestic gold ETFs have suspended subscription and redemption services, advising investors to be cautious of short-term trading risks [6] - Experts believe that while gold is currently experiencing a pullback, it remains in a trend of oscillating upward, supported by market demand for safe-haven assets and rising inflation risks in the U.S. [6]

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the recent significant drop in gold prices, highlighting the volatility in the market and its impact on consumer behavior and investment strategies [1][9][12]. Group 1: Gold Price Movement - On May 1, gold prices fell over $50, dropping below the $3,240 mark, with a reported price of $3,233.21 per ounce, reflecting a decline of 1.67% [1][2]. - Multiple gold jewelry brands have reduced their prices, with specific prices listed for various brands, such as 995 RMB per gram for Lao Miao gold jewelry and 1,002 RMB per gram for Chow Sang Sang [2][4]. Group 2: Consumer Behavior and Market Demand - There is a notable increase in consumer interest in gold, with many looking to buy at lower prices or sell high-value gold items. Reports indicate that gold bars are in high demand, with one merchant stating they sell several kilograms daily [7]. - The gold recovery business is also experiencing a surge, with a reported increase of over 70% in the total weight of gold recovered in April compared to the previous month [7]. Group 3: Investment Risks and Market Reactions - Investors have faced significant losses due to the recent price fluctuations, with reports of individuals losing over 470,000 RMB in a single night after buying gold at a high price [9][10]. - The Shanghai Gold Exchange has announced adjustments to trading fees and margin requirements for gold futures contracts, reflecting the increased volatility and risk in the market [11][12]. - Financial institutions are advising investors to be cautious and manage their risk exposure due to the heightened volatility in gold prices [13].