MACD金叉信号形成，这些股涨势不错！ MACD金叉信号形成，这些股涨势不错！ 欧洲股市从历史高位回落，能源板块拖累大盘，此前，美国总统唐纳德·特朗普表示，委内瑞拉将向美 国移交价值多达28亿美元的石油。 斯托克600指数收盘价略低于前收盘水平，终结三连涨。建筑、工业和地产股领涨，国防股亦升。此 前，特朗普政府与乌克兰的盟友在周二举行的所谓自愿联盟会议上，就向基辅提供其长期寻求的安全保 障取得了进展。 欧洲主要股指今年开局表现亮眼，投资者在美国对委内瑞拉发动袭击后大举买入国防和矿业股。 "市场对全球局势的发展反应冷静。关注重点再次集中于与美联储货币政策相关的通胀走势，"资产管理 公司MPPM交易主管Guillermo Hernandez Sampere表示，"今年的首批数据将指明某个方向。" 责任编辑：丁文武 责任编辑：丁文武 欧洲股市从历史高位回落，能源板块拖累大盘，此前，美国总统唐纳德·特朗普表示，委内瑞拉将向美 国移交价值多达28亿美元的石油。 斯托克600指数收盘价略低于前收盘水平，终结三连涨。建筑、工业和地产股领涨，国防股亦升。此 前，特朗普政府与乌克兰的盟友在周二举行的所谓自愿联盟会议上，就向基辅 ...

Summary of Key Points from the Conference Call Industry Overview - The conference call discusses the outlook for the debt market in 2026, indicating a continuation of the deleveraging phase with high corporate leverage and government leveraging while household debt pressure eases [1][3]. Core Insights and Arguments - **Debt Cycle Outlook**: The debt cycle in 2026 is expected to remain in a deleveraging and debt crisis clearing phase, with corporate leverage remaining high and government leverage increasing [3]. - **Debt Pressure Changes**: Household debt costs, particularly mortgage-related, are expected to decrease, while corporate leverage remains high. Government debt financing costs are manageable due to previous interest rate declines [4]. - **Inflation Trends**: Inflation is anticipated to enter a mild recovery phase, with food prices, particularly from the pig cycle, expected to rise in 2026. However, overall price improvements are not expected to be significant [5]. - **Policy Recommendations**: A dual easing policy of fiscal and monetary measures is recommended, with a projected broad deficit rate of around 10% in 2026. Monetary policy should include slight interest rate cuts to maintain low nominal rates [6]. - **Nominal GDP Growth**: Nominal GDP growth is expected to approach zero, relying more on actual output improvements rather than price increases. This necessitates stabilizing total demand through fiscal and monetary easing [7][8]. - **Liquidity and Monetary Policy**: The liquidity situation in 2025 was positive, with expectations of continued easing in 2026. The focus of monetary policy is shifting towards short-term interest rates and liquidity management [9]. - **Credit Growth Expectations**: Credit growth, particularly in the household sector, is expected to continue declining, with new credit primarily driven by policy-induced investment demand [11][12]. - **Deposit Trends**: The deposit situation is expected to stabilize in 2026, with no significant pressure on liabilities, although growth rates will not match previous highs [13]. Additional Important Insights - **Institutional Behavior**: State-owned banks are expected to continue profit realization, with a shift towards bond investment strategies. Insurance companies are focusing on long-duration bonds, while bank wealth management products are growing [14]. - **Interest Rate Strategy**: A recommendation for a term strategy under a steep yield curve is made, with low probabilities of significant long-end yield increases [15][16]. - **Credit Strategy Focus**: Attention should be given to changes in risk premiums in urban investment bonds and the supply changes brought by the rise of the Sci-Tech Innovation Board. There are opportunities in medium-term urban investment bonds and infrastructure sectors [17]. - **Macro Environment Conclusion**: The overall macro environment is characterized by dual easing policies, leading to a likely continuation of a steep yield curve, suggesting that term strategies will remain relevant [18].

Q&A 近期债券市场表现偏弱的原因是什么？ 近期债券市场表现超出预期的疲软，主要原因并非基本面问题。尽管上周的中 央经济工作会议和最新发布的经济数据对债市相对积极，例如投资和社会消费 品零售总额都有明显下滑，PPI 数据也低于预期。此外，会议提到货币政策有 降准降息的可能性，这些因素本应对短期市场形成支撑。然而，债市依然疲软， 更多是由于机构行为层面的影响。例如银行在久期考核指标压力下出现抛盘， 以及保险公司在大类资产配置上向权益类资产偏移。这些因素导致超长债供需 结构不被看好。此外，交易盘在市场偏弱过程中进行止盈或因赎回带来的被动 抛售压力，也是重要因素。 固收-年末波动，如何应对 20251215 摘要 四季度债市疲软受机构行为影响，银行久期考核压力和保险公司资产配 置偏移导致超长债供需结构不佳，交易盘止盈和赎回压力亦是重要因素。 当前债券市场供需结构相对均衡，但银行久期指标限额持续存在。公募 基金对超长端品种态度谨慎，交易盘对行情弱势判断以及前期久期过长 修正导致技术层面超调。 预计 2026 年保险新增配置超长债需求偏弱，占比可能回到 20%左右， 30-10 期限利差波动范围约为 30~50 个 B ...

12月9日，周一美盘午盘，黄金和白银价格均出现下跌。GTC泽汇资本认为，本周美联储即将宣布降息 的背景下，市场仍存在对其货币政策可能偏鹰的担忧，这给贵金属市场带来一定的抛售压力。此外，美 国原材料生产者价格指数（PPI）原计划于本周发布的10月和11月数据被推迟至明年1月，增加了当前通 胀走势的不确定性。数据显示，二月份黄金期货收报4215.50美元，下跌27.60美元；三月份白银期货收 报58.28美元，下跌0.788美元。GTC泽汇资本认为，短期贵金属价格波动仍将受到美联储政策预期和通 胀数据延迟的不确定性共同影响。 12月9日，周一美盘午盘，黄金和白银价格均出现下跌。GTC泽汇资本认为，本周美联储即将宣布降息 的背景下，市场仍存在对其货币政策可能偏鹰的担忧，这给贵金属市场带来一定的抛售压力。此外，美 国原材料生产者价格指数（PPI）原计划于本周发布的10月和11月数据被推迟至明年1月，增加了当前通 胀走势的不确定性。数据显示，二月份黄金期货收报4215.50美元，下跌27.60美元；三月份白银期货收 报58.28美元，下跌0.788美元。GTC泽汇资本认为，短期贵金属价格波动仍将受到美联储政策预期和通 ...

受美联储偏鸽预期和美元疲软影响，黄金欧洲盘延续温和上行，但整体仍处本周区间震荡内。就业数据 稳健未削弱市场降息押注，美元承压格局明显。即将公布的 PCE 数据将决定金价能否突破 4250–4300 区间，短线交易以谨慎观望为主，中期走势仍关注政策预期和通胀演变。 上方阻力：4245–4250 美元为短期关键阻力，多次试探未破；突破后目标 4277–4278 美元，进一 步站稳可看向 4300 整数关口。 下方支撑：4163–4164 美元为短线支撑，若跌破，4100–4090 区间提供更强结构性支撑，包括 4H 200EMA 和上升趋势线，跌破将增加下行压力。 PCE 数据公布前，不宜追高，建议围绕区间观察突破方向。 美元走势仍主导黄金节奏，地缘风险为阶段性支撑。 若数据强化降息预期，黄金可能测试 4300 区域；若通胀意外走高，则需警惕回落至 4160 区间。 劳动力市场表现亮眼：Challenger 报告显示，美国 11 月计划裁员人数环比下降 53%，首次申请失业救 济人数降至 19.1 万，创三年多新低。尽管就业稳健，市场对美联储下周降息 25 个基点的押注仍保持在 高位（概率超过 85%）。说明投资 ...

Core Viewpoint - Gold prices are currently fluctuating around $4,100 per ounce, showing strong resilience despite a potential downward adjustment in the coming months [1][3] Market Sentiment and Economic Indicators - Short-term market sentiment is influenced by Federal Reserve policy, with a 79% probability of a rate cut next month, although opinions among research institutions vary [3] - Inflation trends and holiday consumer spending are key variables affecting market expectations, with holiday shopping projected to reach $1 trillion, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 3.7% to 4.2% [3] Structural Risks and Long-term Outlook - Increased investment demand has led to concerns about market volatility due to new entrants lacking experience in a complete gold bear market [4] - Historical patterns indicate that gold price adjustments can be sharper and deeper than expected, with potential for significant short-term fluctuations if crowded trades are unwound [4] - Despite potential short-term corrections, the long-term outlook for gold remains solid, with a 15% price adjustment still maintaining key support levels [4]

Core Insights - The article highlights a significant shift in the focus of London traders towards political dynamics, which has become a regular consideration in their decision-making processes [2] - This change is attributed to two main factors: the evolving political landscape, including frequent changes in UK prime ministers, and the transformation of the market environment following the rise in inflation in 2022 [2] - The emergence of "invisible investors" has created a new dynamic where government borrowing costs can suddenly spike due to their predictions regarding inflation trends and government debt [2] Political Landscape Changes - The UK has experienced frequent changes in leadership, which has heightened the attention traders pay to political events [2] - This political volatility has contributed to a more cautious and proactive approach among investors [2] Market Environment Transformation - The rise in inflation in 2022 marked the end of a long period of low borrowing costs that had persisted since 2008 [2] - This shift has led to increased scrutiny from investors regarding government fiscal policies and debt management [2] Role of Invisible Investors - A new group of investors, referred to as "invisible investors," has emerged, influencing government borrowing costs based on their assessments of inflation and debt [2] - These investors act as "obligatory monitors" in the bond market, impacting government financial strategies [2]

Core Viewpoint - The market's focus is shifting towards fiscal stimulus policies, inflation trends post "anti-involution" actions, and support for the real estate market [1] Group 1: Market Conditions - The onshore stock market and steel-related commodity prices are performing steadily [1] - Recent stabilization in China-U.S. relations and attractive asset valuations suggest more upward space for long-term interest rates [1] Group 2: Liquidity Outlook - It is expected that liquidity will remain ample until the end of the year, with the average seven-day repo rate and seven-day reverse repo rate (OMO) maintaining levels similar to recent months [1] - The net supply of government bonds is manageable for November-December, and the exchange rate is stable, indicating no strong reasons for the central bank to tighten liquidity in the coming months [1] - There has been a recent increase in market leverage, which may prompt the central bank to moderately tighten liquidity if levels remain high [1] Group 3: Monetary Policy Expectations - Expectations for monetary easing policies, such as interest rate cuts, reserve requirement ratio reductions, or larger liquidity injections through net purchases of government bonds, are anticipated to continue [1]

Group 1 - The global economy shows significant resilience despite rising tariffs, geopolitical tensions, and fiscal pressures, driven by AI transformation, flexible trade adjustments, and moderate monetary and fiscal policies [7] - China aims for resilient, stable, and inclusive economic growth from 2026 to 2030, focusing on self-reliance in technology, particularly in semiconductors and AI [10] - Japan's economic growth is expected to slow due to tariffs, but it can avoid recession, with core CPI inflation projected to drop below 2% by 2026 [13] Group 2 - The outlook for Asian economies (excluding Japan) is mixed, with strong performance in the tech sector but challenges in non-tech sectors due to high tariffs on labor-intensive industries [17] - The Chinese internet sector will focus on AI strategies and competition in instant retail, with expectations of reduced competitive intensity in the fourth quarter [20][21] - There is a growing trend in China to build a self-sufficient AI supply chain, with increased investment in AI infrastructure and diversified supply sources [24] Group 3 - Market attention is shifting towards fiscal stimulus policies, inflation trends, and support for the real estate market, with expectations of rising long-term interest rates [28] - Policy support, liquidity, and industrial upgrades are identified as core drivers for the future rise of A-shares, despite high valuations [31]

Core Insights - U.S. Treasury bonds have shown strong performance this year, with investors accelerating purchases of this risk-free asset as the risk of a federal government shutdown looms [1] - The iShares 20+ Year Treasury Bond ETF (TLT.US) is expected to see a total return of 2.72% this quarter, with a year-to-date increase of 5.7%, marking its best performance since 2020 [1] - Long-term Treasury yields have been declining, with the 10-year yield down 45.2 basis points to approximately 4.1% year-to-date, compared to 4.6% at the beginning of the year [1] Group 1 - Factors driving the strength of U.S. Treasuries include stable supply maintained by Treasury Secretary Yellen, which alleviates market supply-demand pressures, and the Federal Reserve's recent interest rate cuts to support the job market [1] - The attractiveness of bonds as a safe haven has increased amid concerns over economic growth and recession [1] - Historical data indicates that government shutdowns tend to provide short-term benefits to the bond market, with TLT averaging a 0.2% increase in the week following a shutdown [2] Group 2 - If a government shutdown lasts too long, it could create a "data vacuum," delaying the release of key economic indicators and complicating monetary policy and investment decisions [2] - The uncertainty surrounding the duration of the shutdown raises concerns about potential permanent reductions in workforce size by the Trump administration [2]