景顺亚太区环球市场策略师赵耀庭称，日元走弱加上大规模经济刺激预期，为日本央行加息提供了助 力。由于工资增长强劲及家庭信心改善，国内需求保持韧性。在刺激措施及通胀回落的带动下，第四季 经济增长预计将重返正区间。日本央行在12月18至19日会议上加息的可能性增加。日元目前被低估，并 可能在下月日本央行会议前走强，预期届时会加息。相比近期抛售后的日本国债，他认为，日本股票具 吸引力，原因包括：合理的估值，及明年的经济再通胀前景。 赵耀庭表示，日本国债收益率上升的触发因素，可能是市场预期高市内阁的经济刺激政策规模将超出预 期。日本政府可能透过额外发行国债来融资。市场对日本长期财政可持续性的风险愈加担忧。2024年8 月，日本央行启动了量化紧缩政策，旨在减少其持有的日本国债。日本国内银行对日本国债的购买量显 著下降，因而增加了对外国资金的依赖，因?其通常对财政纪律恶化相关风险更为敏感。若长期利率持 续缓慢上升，日本央行可能增加国债购买操作，或提前结束量化紧缩政策。 他认为，自高市当选以来日元走弱，反映出市场预期她在货币紧缩上采取谨慎立场，以及对大规模刺激 方案引发财政恶化的忧虑。日本政府对日元走弱感到担心，若美元兑日元 ...

Core Viewpoint - The expectation of significant interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve may lead to a decline in the U.S. 10-year Treasury yield to 3.8%-3.9% within the next three to six months [1] Group 1 - Jussi Hiljanen, Chief Strategist at SEB Research, indicates that the Federal Reserve's decision to end quantitative tightening in early December will support Treasury yields [1] - The narrowing of the policy interest rate spread and the reduction in the cost of hedging international real funds are expected to further support Treasury yields [1] - The potential for lower yields may be driven by these macroeconomic factors [1]

大家好，今天犀哥这篇财经评论，主要来聊聊国家新出台的黄金政策，也不是要吓唬大家说"马上要出大事"，也不是喊着"赶紧把钱都取出来"。 主要是想把当前金融市场的门道捋清楚，给咱普通人提个醒，现在全球金融市场的那些信号，真的值得咱当回事吗？ 黄金的市场波动 现在市场上的各种动静，已经不是"今天涨点明天跌点"的小波动了，而是像玩游戏时遇到"隐藏关卡提示"一样，背后藏着连锁反应的风险。 这个没啥可回避的，毕竟不管是咱手里的闲钱想理财，还是企业想好好经营，忽略这些信号，很容易栽跟头。 咱们常说，金融市场就像一盘复杂的"大富翁"，有人买地有人炒股，看着热闹，其实每一步都跟全局连着。 这种感觉现在特别明显，以前偶尔出现一个"异常数据"，可能是巧合，但现在好几个关键信号凑一起，肯定得琢磨琢磨。 不少老股民，平时都在琢磨买啥股票，可一旦他们开始把钱攥在手里不轻易动，往往意味着市场要"变天"了。 就说巴菲特旗下的伯克希尔公司吧，最近的操作就特别像"高手预判风险"，这家公司现在手里的现金已经攒到3817亿美元，创了历史最高，而且连续5个季 度都没回购过股票。 更关键的是股票操作，第三季度伯克希尔不光卖股票，还卖得比买得多，净卖出了6 ...

Core Points - The Federal Reserve unexpectedly announced a 25 basis point interest rate cut, lowering the target range for the federal funds rate to 3.75% to 4.00% [1] - Fed Chairman Jerome Powell also announced the early end of a quantitative tightening policy that had reduced over $2 trillion in assets since June 2022, indicating a shift from a "money tightening" phase to a "money easing" phase [3][19] - The U.S. federal debt has surpassed $38 trillion, equating to 128% of GDP, highlighting the unsustainable debt levels [4][21] Economic Impact - The U.S. government has been accumulating debt at an alarming rate, with an additional $1 trillion added in just two months, averaging $160 billion per day [6] - The partial government shutdown since October 1 has led to significant disruptions, affecting federal employees and essential services, including national security [9][11] - The Congressional Budget Office estimates that the shutdown has caused direct economic losses between $7 billion and $14 billion [11] Credit Rating and Market Reaction - Moody's downgraded the U.S. credit rating from Aaa to Aa1 in May, and European rating agencies followed suit, lowering the U.S. sovereign credit rating from "AA" to "AA-" [13] - This decline in creditworthiness has led to a loss of confidence in U.S. Treasury bonds as the "safest asset," impacting global capital flows [15][27] Federal Reserve's Dilemma - Powell's decision to cut rates and end the balance sheet reduction is seen as a response to tightening market liquidity, with emergency financing tool usage spiking to pandemic levels [17][19] - The U.S. government is struggling to meet interest payments, with projected interest expenditures reaching $1.4 trillion, accounting for a quarter of total federal revenue [21][23] - The fiscal situation is exacerbated by a tax deferral policy that has reduced revenue by approximately $220 billion [23] Global Capital Shifts - As the U.S. grapples with its debt issues, international capital is increasingly moving away from dollar assets towards more stable markets, with China emerging as a preferred destination [29][33] - In the first half of the year, foreign capital inflows into Chinese stocks and funds reached $10.1 billion, reversing a two-year trend of net outflows [31] - The People's Bank of China has maintained stable interest rates and injected liquidity into the market, creating a more predictable investment environment compared to the U.S. [33][36] Future Financial Landscape - The structural imbalance in U.S. fiscal policy, with mandatory spending exceeding 70% of total expenditures, limits the government's ability to maneuver [34][36] - The global financial landscape is shifting from a "dollar-dominant" model to a more diversified approach, with investors seeking stable and transparent policy environments [38]

Group 1 - The Federal Reserve announced a 25 basis point rate cut, bringing the federal funds rate target range to 3.75%-4.00%, marking the fifth rate cut since December 2024 [1][3] - The dot plot indicates that Fed officials expect two more rate cuts this year, with a median forecast for the year-end rate at 3.6% [3] - The decision to halt balance sheet reduction is significant, as it signals the end of years of quantitative tightening [5] Group 2 - There is notable internal disagreement within the Fed, with two members voting against the decision, indicating uncertainty in future monetary policy [5] - Historical trends show that when the U.S. enters a rate-cutting cycle, it significantly impacts global mainstream assets, potentially supporting risk assets like A-shares, Hong Kong stocks, and U.S. stocks [5][8] - Fed Chair Powell's hawkish remarks during the press conference surprised the market, emphasizing that further rate cuts in December are not guaranteed [5][7] Group 3 - Powell highlighted the challenges in decision-making due to delayed economic data from the government shutdown, which complicates the Fed's assessment [7] - Inflation remains a concern, with core PCE inflation projected at 2.3%-2.4%, close to the Fed's 2% target [7] - The Fed's preventive rate cuts are expected to improve global liquidity, enhancing investor appetite for equity assets, particularly in emerging markets [7] Group 4 - The A-share market is likely to be significantly influenced by the Fed's policy shift, with historical data suggesting strong performance during Fed rate-cutting cycles [8][10] - The A-share market has evolved, with total market capitalization exceeding 118 trillion yuan and a more rational valuation compared to previous years [10] - The growth sector is expected to benefit directly from the Fed's rate cuts, as lower financing costs will support domestic technological innovation [12] Group 5 - Despite the overall positive impact of the Fed's rate cut on risk assets, investors should remain cautious of potential risks, including market volatility due to expectation discrepancies [12] - Domestic fundamentals, such as real estate risk resolution and consumer recovery, are crucial for the sustainability of the A-share market rebound [12] - The Fed's policy may fluctuate, with Powell warning that inflation risks have not been resolved, adding to policy uncertainty [12][13]

10月29日（周三）早盘开盘后，金价快速下探至3915一线，随后空方动能逐步衰减，行情开启反弹走势；当价格上行至3982附近时，遭遇压制，短暂回落至 3944点位后企稳，进入缓慢攀升阶段。 午后时段，多头力量持续发力推动金价强势上行，至欧洲交易时段，价格进一步冲高至4030附近。然而，4030一线阻力效应显著，进入美盘交易时段后，金 价在该点位遇阻回落，整体呈现震荡下行态势。 凌晨时段，美联储主席鲍威尔发表鹰派立场讲话，明确打压市场对12月美联储启动降息的预期，直接引发市场资金流向调整，美元指数与美国国债收益率同 步走强，黄金作为非孳息资产的吸引力受挫，价格承压加速下行，最终收于3928附近。从日线级别K线形态来看，当日收出一根带有较长上影线的阴线，反 映出上方抛压较重，多空博弈中空头占据阶段性优势。 一、基本面 1、美联储政策与表态： 鲍威尔称12月降息非板上钉钉，内部分歧强烈，导致12月降息概率从95%跌至67.9%。同时美联储宣布12月起重启有限国债购买，结束量化紧缩政策。 2、今日重点关注： 本交易日重头戏无疑是中美领导人在韩国首尔的会晤。若贸易谈判未能取得突破性进展，或将为金价提供短期避险支撑；反之 ...

Market Overview - Dow futures decreased by 0.25%, S&P 500 futures increased by 0.17%, and Nasdaq futures fell by 0.40% [1] Chinese Stocks Performance - Chinese stocks showed a pre-market rally with Alibaba up by 1.69%, Pinduoduo up by 0.72%, JD.com up by 0.46%, Baidu up by 1.26%, and Bilibili up by 0.66% [2] Commodity Prices - Spot gold prices reached $4020 per ounce, marking a 1.71% increase for the day [3] Company Earnings and Stock Movements - GlaxoSmithKline reported a turnaround in Q3, posting a profit of £2.01 billion compared to a loss of £58 million in the same period last year, leading to a pre-market increase of 3.36% in its stock [4] - Nvidia's stock rose over 3%, with a potential market capitalization of $5 trillion if the current level is maintained, following a broad discussion by CEO Jensen Huang on AI and other advanced technologies during the GTC conference [4] - Bloom Energy's stock surged over 17% after reporting a 57.1% year-over-year revenue growth, reaching $519 million, marking its fourth consecutive quarter of record revenue [4] Analyst Ratings - Jefferies raised the target price for Coinbase from $375 to $384 [7] Federal Reserve Meeting Expectations - The Federal Reserve is expected to announce a 25 basis point rate cut, bringing the target range to 3.75%-4% during the upcoming FOMC meeting [8] - Analysts noted increasing policy divergence within the FOMC, contrasting with the consensus seen in the previous meeting [8] - There are indications that the market is preparing for the end of the Fed's quantitative tightening policy, as evidenced by a significant trade involving 40,000 contracts betting on a minimal increase in the SOFR above the expected federal funds rate [8]

Group 1: Federal Reserve Monetary Policy - The Federal Reserve is expected to lower interest rates by 25 basis points in the upcoming meeting on October 30, with a probability of 94.1% due to a slowing job market and mild inflation impact from tariffs [1] - Federal Reserve officials maintain a cautious stance, emphasizing data-driven decisions rather than a predetermined path, indicating a divergence between market expectations and the Fed's approach [1] Group 2: U.S. Economic Data - The U.S. economy showed signs of complexity, with a GDP contraction of 0.6% in Q1, marking the first negative growth in three years, followed by a strong Q2 growth revision to 3.8% [2] - Economic pressures from tariff policies and weak consumer and investment confidence have led to signs of economic fatigue in the latter half of the year [2] - The labor market reflects a "low hiring, low firing" state, indicating ongoing concerns about the economic outlook [2] Group 3: Inflation and Employment Risks - Fed Chair Powell's remarks at the global central bank meeting highlighted reduced inflation risks but increased employment risks, suggesting a cautious approach to monetary policy [3] - The uncertainty surrounding the Fed's interest rate path is heightened by the upcoming leadership changes within the Fed, with potential impacts from political interventions [3] Group 4: Global Economic Implications - The potential resumption of rate cuts by the Fed could create a more accommodative external environment for non-U.S. economies [4] - Increased market flexibility in the RMB exchange rate has provided China with more autonomy in its monetary policy [4] - Chinese investors need to be vigilant about market volatility risks stemming from the Fed's rate cut cycle and the associated economic and policy fluctuations in the U.S. [4]

Investment Rating - The report does not explicitly state an investment rating for the industry Core Insights - The report highlights the escalation of Sino-US trade tensions, leading to increased macroeconomic uncertainty and commodity price volatility [1][14] - Federal Reserve Chairman Powell indicated that the Fed may soon end its balance sheet reduction efforts, with signs of a weakening labor market emerging [2][16] - China's core CPI continued to rise, while PPI's decline narrowed, indicating a mixed economic outlook [3][17] - Freeport Indonesia may suspend operations at its copper smelter due to supply disruptions from a mudslide at the Grasberg mine, impacting Indonesia's copper smelting capacity and export plans [4][18] Weekly Market Review - The non-ferrous metals sector underperformed, with a weekly decline of 3.07%, ranking 20th among 33 sectors [9] - Key individual stock performances included significant gains for Xilai Fu (+49.84%) and Baiyin Youse (+28.54%), while Tengyuan Cobalt (-13.83%) and Bowei Alloy (-13.34%) faced notable declines [9][13] Key Focus Areas & Metal Prices - Industrial metals are expected to see price increases due to ongoing supply disruptions and potential acceleration in smelting processes [19] - Precious metals, particularly gold, reached historical highs amid renewed trade tensions [32] - Energy metals, particularly cobalt, may face supply shortages due to new export quotas from the Democratic Republic of Congo [35][36] - Strategic metals, especially rare earths, are benefiting from strengthened export controls, with a focus on mid-heavy rare earths [41] Core View Updates and Key Stock Tracking - For industrial metals, companies with integrated operations like China Hongqiao are recommended, alongside others like Tianshan Aluminum and Zhongfu Industrial [51] - In precious metals, gold remains a key asset for long-term allocation, with stocks like Chifeng Jilong Gold and Shandong Gold suggested for attention [51] - Strategic and minor metals are expected to see valuation reconstruction opportunities, with a focus on cobalt, antimony, and tungsten sectors [52]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No investment rating for the industry is provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints - For the nickel market, with high inventories and a persistent supply - surplus situation, nickel prices are expected to remain in a low - level oscillation. The Fed's expected interest - rate cut and relatively stable fundamentals lead to a weak oscillation trend for the nickel futures contract [1][3]. - For the stainless - steel market, due to inventory accumulation, weakening material cost support, and lower - than - expected demand, stainless - steel prices are also projected to stay in a low - level oscillation [3][5]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Nickel Variety - **Market Analysis** - **Futures**: On October 15, 2025, the Shanghai nickel main contract 2510 opened at 120,830 yuan/ton and closed at 121,180 yuan/ton, a 0.08% change from the previous trading day. The trading volume was 83,761 (-26,323) lots, and the open interest was 68,681 (-4,426) lots. The Fed's expected interest - rate cut led to a weak oscillation trend under stable fundamentals [1]. - **Nickel Ore**: The nickel ore market was calm with stable prices. Sea freight declined due to reduced shipping demand. The 1.4% nickel ore tender of the Eramen mine in Zambales, Philippines, was settled at FOB 43.5. Downstream iron plants were cautious in purchasing nickel ore, while some northern Chinese factories started "winter storage". The Indonesian nickel ore market had a continuous supply - surplus pattern, and the October (second - phase) domestic trade benchmark price was expected to rise by 0.06 - 0.11 dollars [1]. - **Spot**: Jinchuan Group's Shanghai market selling price was 123,400 yuan/ton, up 400 yuan/ton from the previous day. Spot trading was cold, and the premium of refined nickel brands remained stable. The previous trading day's Shanghai nickel warrant volume was 26,558 (+1,531) tons, and the LME nickel inventory was 246,756 (+3,498) tons [2]. - **Strategy** - The recommended strategy for nickel is mainly range - bound operation for the single - side trading, with no suggestions for inter - delivery, inter - variety, spot - futures, or options trading [3]. Stainless - Steel Variety - **Market Analysis** - **Futures**: On October 15, 2025, the stainless - steel main contract 2512 opened at 12,565 yuan/ton and closed at 12,560 yuan/ton. The trading volume was 113,216 (-37,540) lots, and the open interest was 193,490 (-4,171) lots. The contract showed a weak - oscillation trend, and price decline was due to the game between cost support and weak demand [3]. - **Spot**: Downstream buyers remained cautious, and spot trading was light with stable spot premiums. The stainless - steel prices in Wuxi and Foshan markets were both 13,000 (+0) yuan/ton, and the 304/2B premium was 455 - 755 yuan/ton. The average ex - factory tax - included price of high - nickel pig iron decreased by 4.50 yuan/nickel point to 943.0 yuan/nickel point [3]. - **Strategy** - The recommended single - side strategy for stainless steel is neutral, with no suggestions for inter - delivery, inter - variety, spot - futures, or options trading [5].