Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content 2. Core View of the Report - Since late July, the spot and futures prices of rebar have weakened. The main futures price has fallen by 4.43% from its high, and the spot price in mainstream areas has dropped by 30 - 90 yuan/ton. The correction of optimistic sentiment and the accumulation of industrial contradictions in the steel market have led to the decline of steel prices. Currently, the demand for rebar remains weak, the supply benefits are limited, and the fundamental contradictions are accumulating. It is expected that steel prices will fluctuate under pressure, and attention should be paid to changes in production restriction policies [2][7] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Optimistic Sentiment Correction - Since July, the dominant logic in the ferrous metal market has been the policy - driven positive expectations from "anti - involution." However, with limited policy implementation, the previous optimistic sentiment has been corrected. The Politburo meeting on July 30 changed the wording on capacity governance, and did not directly mention real - estate policies, weakening market expectations. The manufacturing PMI in July was 49.3%, down 0.4 percentage points from June, affected by the traditional off - season and natural disasters [3] - From the perspective of key industries, the PMIs of the equipment manufacturing and high - tech manufacturing industries were above the critical point, while the PMI of the consumer goods industry decreased by 0.9 percentage points from June, and that of the high - energy - consuming industry increased by 0.2 percentage points. The production and operation activity expectation index in July was 52.6%, up 0.6 percentage points from June, indicating increased confidence among manufacturing enterprises [4] Supply Benefits Limited - As of the week ending August 1, the total inventory of rebar was 546290 tons, an increase of 7650 tons from the previous week, but still at a low level in recent years, with a year - on - year decrease of 196080 tons (26.41%). The rebar market shows a situation of weak supply and demand, and the fundamental contradictions are easy to accumulate. The weekly output of rebar is relatively low at 211060 tons, a decrease of 22830 tons from the previous high, mainly due to long - process steel mills' product transformation [5] - The positive effect of low supply is limited. Some steel mills that previously produced billets have returned to rebar production, and the profitability of short - process steel mills has improved significantly. The proportion of profitable steel mills among 90 independent electric arc furnaces is 52.89%, and the loss ratio is only 12.4%. Their operating rate has reached a high for the year, which will increase rebar supply. However, steel mills around Beijing may suspend production to ensure the smooth progress of the September 3 parade, which may boost the steel market sentiment [5][6] Demand Remains Weak - Due to weak demand, industrial contradictions in rebar continue to accumulate. As of the week ending August 1, the weekly apparent demand for rebar was 203410 tons, a new low, down 5.67% year - on - year. Cement out - bound volume and concrete shipment volume, which directly reflect terminal demand, are also weak, down 10.43% and 4.91% year - on - year respectively [7] - The real - estate sales are sluggish, and there is no substantial improvement in the downstream industries of rebar. The weak demand pattern remains unchanged. The increase in steel prices in July stimulated the release of investment demand, and the increase in the number of rebar warehouse receipts on the SHFE may further increase the pressure on the demand side [7]

Macro Perspective - The GDP growth rate for the first half of the year reached 5.3% supported by policies such as "two new" and "two heavy" as well as the overseas "export grabbing/transshipment effect" [3] - The urgency for short-term policy adjustments has decreased, with the focus shifting to the implementation of existing policies [3] Macro Liquidity - The Federal Reserve maintained its interest rates in July, raising concerns about a potential U.S. economic recession due to subsequent downward revisions of non-farm employment data [3] - Domestic policies will be adjusted based on changing risk challenges, with a focus on the implementation of existing monetary policies [3] Capital Market Liquidity - The A-share market has seen a recovery in investor sentiment, with increased trading volume and turnover rates, leading to rapid expansion in margin financing [4] - The overall liquidity in the A-share market is expected to continue its incremental process, supported by policy factors [4] A-share Market Outlook - Despite short-term challenges from mid-year performance reports, the "anti-involution" policy is expected to open up profit expectations [4] - A-share valuations may not be considered undervalued, but there is potential for price expectations to improve, supporting valuation increases [4] Industry Opportunities - Investment opportunities can be found in sectors such as TMT (Technology, Media, Telecommunications), pharmaceuticals, and defense industries, driven by AI trends and policy support [4] - The financial sector is expected to benefit from the stabilization of the capital market [4] - Resource sectors, including non-ferrous metals and chemicals, may see investment opportunities due to capacity management initiatives [4]

Core Viewpoint - Since the end of July, rebar prices have weakened, with the main futures price dropping by 4.43% from its peak, and spot prices in major regions have also declined by 30 to 90 yuan per ton, indicating a correction in optimistic sentiment and accumulated industry contradictions putting pressure on steel prices [1] Group 1: Market Sentiment and Policy Changes - The dominant logic in the black metal market since July has been the policy expectations brought by "anti-involution," but the limited realization of these expectations has led to a correction in optimism [2] - The Politburo meeting on July 30 emphasized the need to regulate disorderly competition in enterprises and advance capacity governance in key industries, which has altered market expectations regarding the "anti-involution" policy [2] - The absence of direct mentions of real estate in the recent Politburo meeting has weakened expectations for loosening policies in the real estate sector [2] Group 2: Manufacturing and Economic Indicators - The manufacturing PMI for July was reported at 49.3%, a decrease of 0.4 percentage points from June, influenced by seasonal production slowdowns and adverse weather conditions [2] - The PMI for equipment manufacturing and high-tech manufacturing remained above the critical point at 50.3% and 50.6%, respectively, while the consumer goods industry PMI fell to 49.5%, down 0.9 percentage points from June [3] - The production and business activity expectation index for July rose to 52.6%, indicating improved confidence among manufacturing enterprises regarding market development [3] Group 3: Supply and Demand Dynamics - As of August 1, rebar inventory totaled 5.4629 million tons, an increase of 76,500 tons from the previous week, but still down 1.9608 million tons year-on-year, reflecting a 26.41% decrease [4] - The current market for rebar shows a dual weakness in supply and demand, with production declining to 2.1106 million tons per week, down 228,300 tons from previous highs [4] - Despite low supply, the positive effects are limited as some steel mills are returning to rebar production due to good profit margins, and the operating rate of electric arc furnaces has risen to a high level [4] Group 4: Demand Weakness - The weekly demand for rebar as of August 1 was 2.0341 million tons, a new low, down 5.67% year-on-year, indicating persistent weakness in demand [6] - Cement and concrete shipment volumes have also shown declines of 10.43% and 4.91% year-on-year, respectively, further confirming weak demand in construction-related sectors [6] - The real estate market remains sluggish, with no substantial improvements in downstream industries, and infrastructure investment is unlikely to increase significantly [7] Group 5: Market Outlook - The correction in market optimism has led to a decline in rebar prices, with the operational logic of the steel market returning to industry fundamentals [7] - The weak demand situation is expected to persist, and the limited supply benefits may not significantly alleviate the pressure on prices, indicating a potential for continued price fluctuations [7]

黑色建材日报 2025-08-08 钢材 黑色建材组 陈张滢 从业资格号：F03098415 交易咨询号：Z0020771 0755-23375161 chenzy@wkqh.cn 万林新 从业资格号：F03133967 0755-23375162 wanlx@wkqh.cn 赵 航 从业资格号：F03133652 0755-23375155 zhao3@wkqh.cn 螺纹钢主力合约下午收盘价为 3231 元/吨, 较上一交易日跌 3 元/吨（-0.09%）。当日注册仓单 93491 吨, 环 比增加 4235 吨。主力合约持仓量为 162.8167 万手，环比减少 24402 手。现货市场方面, 螺纹钢天津汇总 价格为 3320 元/吨, 环比减少 10/吨; 上海汇总价格为 3360 元/吨, 环比减少 10 元/吨。 热轧板卷主力 合约收盘价为 3440 元/吨, 较上一交易日跌 11 元/吨（-0.31%）。 当日注册仓单 70915 吨, 环比减少 0 吨。主力合约持仓量为 142.8587 万手，环比减少 31588 手。 现货方面, 热轧板卷乐从汇总价格为 3470 元/吨, 环比减少 0 元 ...

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided Group 2: Core Viewpoints of the Report - The fundamentals of alumina may be in a stage where supply growth slows down and demand is relatively stable, and the industry outlook is gradually improving under policy guidance. For alumina, it is recommended to conduct light - position short - long trading at low prices, controlling the rhythm and trading risks [2]. - The fundamentals of electrolytic aluminum may be in a stage where supply remains high but the growth rate slows down, demand is weak due to the off - season, and inventory slightly accumulates. In the long term, the outlook is still positive after policy - guided optimization. For electrolytic aluminum, it is recommended to conduct light - position oscillating trading, controlling the rhythm and trading risks [2]. - The fundamentals of cast aluminum may be in a stage where supply slightly contracts and demand weakens in the off - season. For cast aluminum, it is recommended to conduct light - position oscillating trading, controlling the rhythm and trading risks [2]. Group 3: Summary by Relevant Catalogs Futures Market - The closing price of the Shanghai Aluminum main contract was 20,750 yuan/ton, up 100 yuan; the closing price of the alumina futures main contract was 3,211 yuan/ton, down 30 yuan. The LME electrolytic aluminum three - month quotation was 2,621.50 US dollars/ton, up 56.50 US dollars [2]. - The main - contract positions of Shanghai Aluminum, alumina, and cast aluminum all increased, with increases of 7,409 hands, 3,692 hands, and 362 hands respectively [2]. - The LME aluminum cancelled warehouse receipts increased by 1,150 tons, and the LME aluminum inventory increased by 1,900 tons. The Shanghai - London ratio decreased by 0.14 [2]. Spot Market - The prices of Shanghai Non - ferrous A00 aluminum, the average price of ADC12 aluminum alloy ingots nationwide, and Yangtze River Non - ferrous Market AOO aluminum all increased by 60 yuan/ton, and the alumina spot price in Shanghai Non - ferrous increased by 100 yuan/ton [2]. - The basis of cast aluminum decreased by 595 yuan/ton, the basis of electrolytic aluminum decreased by 40 yuan/ton, and the basis of alumina increased by 30 yuan/ton [2]. Upstream Situation - Alumina production in the current month was 774.93 million tons, up 26.13 million tons; the demand for alumina (electrolytic aluminum part) decreased by 23.83 million tons; the supply - demand balance of alumina increased by 52.40 million tons [2]. - The import volume of aluminum scrap decreased by 4,084.65 tons, and the export volume decreased by 8.11 tons. The export volume of alumina decreased by 4 million tons, and the import volume increased by 3.38 million tons [2]. Industry Situation - The total production capacity of electrolytic aluminum increased by 2.50 million tons, the production of aluminum products increased by 11.17 million tons, and the production of recycled aluminum alloy ingots increased by 0.29 million tons [2]. - The export volume of unwrought aluminum and aluminum products increased by 5.20 million tons, and the export volume of aluminum alloy increased by 0.16 million tons [2]. Downstream and Application - The production of automobiles increased by 16.66 million vehicles, and the national real estate climate index decreased by 0.11 [2]. - The production of aluminum alloy increased by 2.40 million tons, and the built - up production capacity of recycled aluminum alloy ingots decreased by 1.10 million tons [2]. Option Situation - The historical volatility of Shanghai Aluminum for 20 days and 40 days decreased by 0.39% and 0.09% respectively [2]. - The implied volatility of the at - the - money IV of the Shanghai Aluminum main contract decreased by 0.0016%, and the call - put ratio decreased by 0.0102 [2]. Industry News - Fed officials have different views on policy adjustment and inflation. The central bank's net liquidity injection in July decreased compared with the previous month, and the retail industry's prosperity index in August increased [2]. - In July, the retail sales of the national passenger car market increased by 7% year - on - year, and the retail sales of the new energy market increased by 14% year - on - year [2].

Group 1: Economic Context - The revision of the Price Law is the first major overhaul in 27 years, addressing the "increase in production without an increase in profit" dilemma and inward competition[4] - China's Producer Price Index (PPI) has experienced negative growth for 33 consecutive months, with a year-on-year decline of 3.6% in June 2025, marking a new low in this negative growth cycle[5][6] - Industrial value-added increased by 6.4% year-on-year in the first half of 2025, yet industrial profits fell by 1.8% year-on-year, highlighting the paradox of "increased production without increased profits"[5] Group 2: Legislative Changes - The Price Law revision expands the definition of "below-cost pricing" to include digital economy practices, enhancing the legal framework against unfair competition[5][13] - The revision raises the maximum penalty for violations from 5,000 yuan to 50,000 yuan, significantly increasing the deterrent effect on large enterprises[15] - New provisions specifically target algorithmic manipulation and hidden fees in the digital economy, marking a significant regulatory advancement[15] Group 3: Market Implications - The revision is expected to accelerate industry differentiation, pushing out non-compliant capacities and enhancing the competitive environment for compliant firms[16] - The anticipated recovery of PPI and profit margins may lead to a shift in capital market dynamics, with funds reallocating from defensive sectors to cyclical and "anti-involution" sectors[18] - The long-term goal of the Price Law revision is to transition the economy from a "price war" to an "innovation-driven" growth model, fostering sustainable economic development[18]

2025 年 8 月 7 日 国 泰 君 安 期 货 研 究 所 螺纹钢：市场呈现观望，宽幅震荡 热轧卷板：市场呈现观望，宽幅震荡 李亚飞 投资咨询从业资格号：Z0021184 liyafei2@gtht.com 金园园（联系人） 期货从业资格号：F03134630 jinyuanyuan2@gtht.com 【基本面跟踪】 螺纹钢、热轧卷板基本面数据 | | | 昨日收盘价 （元/吨） | 涨跌 （元/吨） | 涨跌幅 （%） | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | RB2510 HC2510 | 3,234 | 24 14 | 0.75 | | 期 货 | | 3,451 | | 0.41 | | | | 昨日成交 （手） | 昨日持仓 （手） | 持仓变动 （手） | | | RB2510 | 1,202,766 | 1,652,569 | -56,263 | | | HC2510 | 561,631 | 1,460,175 | -1,559 | | | | （元/吨） 昨日价格 | 前日价格 （元/吨） | 涨跌 （元/吨） | | | 上海 | 3370 | 33 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided 2. Core View of the Report - After the meeting last week, the market has a clearer understanding of the anti - involution tone. Policy focuses on capacity governance in some industries rather than overall capacity reduction. The commodity market has cooled down, and ferroalloys have returned to their fundamentals. Current high steel mill profits and high hot metal production support ferroalloy demand, but long - term support from real estate, home appliances, and automobiles is uncertain. Manganese ore supply is relatively sufficient, and the market still has expectations for supply - side contraction. The release of the "Coal Mine Safety Regulations" has supported ferroalloy prices [4] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Ferroalloy Price Range Forecast - Silicon iron price range (monthly) is predicted to be 5300 - 6000, with a current 20 - day rolling volatility of 25.65% and a 3 - year historical percentile of 69.0%. Silicon manganese price range (monthly) is also 5300 - 6000, with a current 20 - day rolling volatility of 15.48% and a 3 - year historical percentile of 28.5% [3] 3.2 Ferroalloy Hedging - **Inventory Management**: For enterprises with high finished - product inventory worried about price drops, they can short ferroalloy futures (SF2509, SM2509) to lock in profits and cover production costs. The selling ratio is 15%, and the recommended entry range is SF: 6200 - 6250, SM: 6400 - 6500 [3] - **Procurement Management**: For enterprises with low procurement inventory and aiming to purchase based on orders, they can buy ferroalloy futures (SF2509, SM2509) at present to lock in procurement costs in advance. The buying ratio is 25%, and the recommended entry range is SF: 5100 - 5200, SM: 5300 - 5400 [3] 3.3 Core Contradiction - After the meeting, the market clarifies the anti - involution policy. Policy focuses on partial capacity governance, not overall reduction. The commodity market cools down, and ferroalloys return to fundamentals. High steel mill profits and hot metal production support demand, but long - term support from real estate, home appliances, and automobiles is uncertain. Manganese ore supply is sufficient, and there are still expectations for supply - side contraction. The "Coal Mine Safety Regulations" support ferroalloy prices [4] 3.4利多解读 - **Silicon Iron**: The profit in Inner Mongolia production area is +85 yuan/ton (+6), and in Ningxia production area is 282 yuan/ton (+56) [5] - **Silicon Manganese**: The government's strict control policy on high - energy - consuming industries may lead to industrial structure adjustment and upgrading in the silicon manganese industry [5] 3.5利空解读 - **Silicon Iron**: The weekly production enterprise start - up rate is 33.76%, a week - on - week increase of 0.43%. The weekly output is 10.44 tons, a week - on - week increase of 2.31%. The demand for five major steel products is 1.99 tons, a week - on - week decrease of 1%. The enterprise inventory is 6.56 tons, a week - on - week increase of 5.64%, the warehouse receipt inventory is 11 tons, a week - on - week decrease of 0.54%, and the total inventory is 17.56 tons, a week - on - week increase of 1.62% [7] - **Silicon Manganese**: In the long run, the real estate market is sluggish, and the black sector has declined. There are doubts about the growth of steel terminal demand, and silicon manganese demand is relatively weak. The profit in the northern region is - 168.65 yuan/ton (- 101.91), and in the southern region is - 511.42 yuan/ton (- 81.09). The weekly production enterprise start - up rate is 42.18%, a week - on - week increase of 0.6%. The weekly output is 19.08 tons, a week - on - week increase of 2.31%. The warehouse receipt is 39.6 tons, a week - on - week increase of 1.98%, and the total inventory is 60.1 tons, a week - on - week increase of 1.3% [7] 3.6 Silicon Iron Daily Data - Data such as silicon iron basis, futures spreads, spot prices, and raw material prices on August 6, 2025, are provided, along with their day - on - day and week - on - week changes [7] 3.7 Silicon Manganese Daily Data - Data such as silicon manganese basis, futures spreads, spot prices, and raw material prices on August 6, 2025, are provided, along with their day - on - day and week - on - week changes [8] 3.8 Seasonal Data - Seasonal data of silicon iron and silicon manganese market prices, basis, and futures spreads in different regions and contracts are presented, including historical data from 2021 - 2025 [9][10][11]

Report Investment Rating - No information provided Core View - The price of lithium carbonate is falling, and the demand - side production increase is small. The support below the price is weak. In the short term, the futures price may continue to be under pressure [3] Summary by Related Catalogs Lithium Compounds - SMM battery - grade lithium carbonate average price is 71,200 yuan/ton, down 150 yuan; SMM industrial - grade lithium carbonate average price is 69,100 yuan/ton, down 150 yuan [1] - Futures prices of lithium carbonate contracts from 2508 to 2512 are all falling, with the 2508 contract closing at 67,300 yuan, down 3.19% [1] Lithium Ore - Lithium spodumene concentrate (CIF China) price is 760 yuan, with no change [1] - Lithium mica prices range from 1,085 yuan to 1,710 yuan depending on Li₂O content; phospho - lithium - aluminum stone prices range from 5,275 yuan to 6,200 yuan and are falling [2] Cathode Materials - The average price of lithium iron phosphate (power type) is 32,595 yuan, down 35 yuan; the average prices of ternary materials 811, 523, and 613 are rising [2] Price Differences - The difference between battery - grade and industrial - grade lithium carbonate is 2,100 yuan; the difference between battery - grade lithium carbonate and the main contract is 3,360 yuan, up 1,050 yuan [2] Inventory - Total inventory (weekly) is 141,726 tons, down 1,444 tons; smelter inventory (weekly) is 51,958 tons, down 3,427 tons; downstream inventory (weekly) is 45,888 tons, up 3,073 tons; other inventory (weekly) is 43,880 tons, down 1,090 tons; registered warehouse receipts (daily) are 14,443 tons, up 1,840 tons [2] Profit Estimation - The cash cost of purchasing lithium spodumene concentrate externally is 68,421 yuan, and the profit is 7,529 yuan; the profit of purchasing lithium mica concentrate externally is - 6,997 yuan [3]

Market Overview - The Hong Kong stock market opened slightly lower, with the Hang Seng Index down 0.15% at 24,864.15 points, the Hang Seng Tech Index down 0.31% at 5,503.81 points, and the National Enterprises Index down 0.21% at 8,932.05 points [1] - Major tech stocks showed mixed performance, with Alibaba down 0.34%, Tencent up 0.18%, and JD.com up 0.16% [1] - Notable gainers included Southern Manganese, which rose 14%, and Wuling Motors, which increased by 13.5% due to performance boosts [1] Company News - **Tech and Innovation**: - Creative Technology reported a revenue of $7.8 billion for the first half, a 7.5% increase year-on-year, and a net profit of $628 million, up 14.2% [2] - Yum China achieved revenue of $2.8 billion in Q2 2025, a 4% increase, with operating profit rising 14% to $304 million [2] - Upwind Holdings expects mid-term revenue of approximately RMB 4.09-4.11 billion, a year-on-year increase of 16.8%-17.3%, and net profit of RMB 540-560 million, up 30.9%-35.8% [2] - Times Angel anticipates a mid-term net profit of $13.4-14.8 million, a significant year-on-year increase of 538.1%-604.8% [3] - **Earnings Surprises**: - Wuling Motors expects a mid-term net profit of approximately RMB 84 million, a substantial increase of about 298% year-on-year [4] - Southern Manganese forecasts a mid-term net profit exceeding HKD 150 million, marking a turnaround from losses [5] Industry Insights - **Pharmaceuticals and Innovation**: - Guosen Securities noted that the Hong Kong stock market is experiencing a resonance of liquidity from both domestic and foreign investors, with technology and pharmaceutical sectors having significant recovery potential [7] - Haitong International expressed optimism about the innovative drug industry chain, recommending increased allocation to leading companies in this sector [7] - Minyin International highlighted that domestic healthcare policies and overseas value recognition will support the ongoing trend in China's innovative drug market [8] - **Market Dynamics**: - Minsheng Securities reported that the recent political bureau meeting emphasized "anti-involution" and the need for regulated competition in key industries, indicating a shift towards rational competition and improved industry profitability [8]