庞溟（国家金融与发展实验室特聘高级研究员） 随着中国经济进入新阶段，居民消费率的提高将成为宏观调控、增长内涵和发展质量新的重要的观察指 标和定量目标，并有望作为衡量经济内生动力和社会民生改善的重要参照。 展望后续，预期各项促消费政策将聚焦于五个重点领域，为消费市场的持续扩容提供坚实支撑： 大规模设备更新和消费品以旧换新政策推行一年多来，在稳投资、扩消费、促转型、惠民生等方面取得 明显成效，特别是以旧换新带热了多元消费需求。展望2026年，预期相关政策在结构上将更为突出和提 升服务消费的比重。这意味着政策导向正在从单纯的商品消费扩展到教育、医疗、养老、文旅等服务领 域，更加注重满足居民多样化、品质化的消费需求，推动消费结构进一步优化，带动相关产业链的升级 和扩展，形成新的增长点。 近日，财政部、商务部发布《关于开展消费新业态新模式新场景试点工作的通知》，宣布将支持50个左 右城市开展试点工作，包括4个直辖市、5个计划单列市和部分省会城市，以及若干文旅资源相对丰富的 其他城市。与以往单一的消费促进政策不同，本次试点明确提出新业态、新模式、新场景三维度，强调 财政资金不仅要支持传统消费扩容，更要引导地方在数字化、智 ...

Group 1 - The Hong Kong stock market opened positively on December 4, with the Hang Seng Index rising by 0.17%, the National Enterprises Index by 0.26%, and the Hang Seng Technology Index by 0.21% [1] - The consumer sector in Hong Kong experienced a narrow fluctuation under pressure, with the Hong Kong Consumer ETF (513230) slightly declining by around 0.5%, and constituent stocks showing mixed performance [1] - The State Council's policy briefing highlighted a plan to enhance the adaptability of supply and demand in consumer goods, aiming to establish three trillion-level consumption fields and ten hundred-billion-level consumption hotspots by 2027 [1] Group 2 - Huatai Securities' research report indicates that in 2025, the consumer sector will continue to show a divergence between old and new consumption, driven by the transformation of "people, goods, and venues" and technological advancements [2] - The report anticipates that consumer policies will continue to stimulate supply and demand potential, leading to a steady recovery in domestic demand and ongoing sectoral divergence, with leading companies benefiting from innovation and integration capabilities [2] - The Hong Kong Consumer ETF (513230) tracks the CSI Hong Kong Stock Connect Consumer Theme Index, encompassing a wide range of consumer sectors, including new consumption leaders like Pop Mart and Mixue, as well as internet e-commerce giants like Tencent and Alibaba [2]

Group 1 - A-shares opened slightly higher with the Shanghai Composite Index up 0.04%, Shenzhen Component Index up 0.02%, and ChiNext Index up 0.01% [1] - Sectors such as robotics and non-ferrous metals showed strong performance [1] Group 2 - CITIC Securities highlighted strong investment enthusiasm in energy storage, with planned investment projects in Inner Mongolia expected to double compared to this year [2] - The demand for energy storage is expected to continue growing due to high load growth and the ongoing development of renewable energy [2] - Battery materials, including cathodes, anodes, electrolytes, and separators, are anticipated to see sustained price increases, with a positive outlook for battery and integration segments [2] Group 3 - Tianfeng Securities noted strong bottom-line support for the cement industry, with over 85% of clinker lines in northern provinces currently offline due to winter production restrictions [3] - The cement industry is expected to see a significant reduction in production capacity, with a total of 5,250 million tons of new capacity being added and 8,359 million tons of capacity being exited by November [3] - The effects of production capacity governance in the cement sector are expected to become evident by 2026 [3] Group 4 - Huatai Securities projected a steady recovery in domestic demand, driven by ongoing consumption policies and structural growth opportunities in the consumer sector [4] - The report emphasized four key investment themes for 2026: the rise of domestic brands, technology-driven consumption, emotional consumption, and undervalued high-dividend blue-chip leaders [4] - New consumer segments such as trendy toys, beauty and personal care, and ready-to-drink beverages are expected to emerge as strong growth areas [4]

12月3日，港股主要指数持续下跌，恒指跌1.12%，国指跌1.34%，恒生科技指数跌1.5%。科网股集体下 挫，小鹏汽车跌超4%，蔚来、网易、哔哩哔哩跌超3%。港股消费板块午后持续震荡，港股消费ETF （513230）现跌超1%。从持仓股表现来看，小鹏汽车、巨子生物、哔哩哔哩、新秀丽、名创优品、快 手等跌幅居前，创科实业、老铺黄金、中国儒意、万洲国际、古茗等涨幅居前。 国金证券表示，预计到2030年，我国将基本形成供给与消费良性互动的高质量发展格局，消费对经济增 长的贡献稳步提升。实施方案明确四大方向：一是推动AI等新技术全面赋能消费品行业，促进功能化 与健康化创新；二是加快发展宠物、潮玩、户外运动等情绪价值驱动的新兴消费；三是支持国潮品牌通 过国际展会等方式加速出海；四是鼓励首发经济、即时零售、直播电商等新业态发展，并利用AI实现 精准供需匹配。整体来看，消费正朝着技术融合、情感链接、全球拓展和渠道创新的方向持续升级，结 构机遇显著。 华泰证券指出，2025年，新旧消费延续分化表现，"人货场"的变革与科技进步，正推动消费行业的快速 迭代创新与结构性成长机会，潮玩IP、美妆个护、现制饮品等新消费赛道涌现一批优 ...

Group 1: Industrial Profit and Economic Indicators - In October, the profit growth rate of industrial enterprises above designated size was -5.5%, down from 21.6%, indicating a shift from positive to negative growth[4] - The industrial added value year-on-year growth was 4.9%, down from 6.5% in the previous period[4] - The PPI year-on-year was -2.1%, slightly improved from -2.3%[4] - The operating income profit margin fell from 18.7% to -5.7% year-on-year due to rising costs and a high base effect from last year[4] Group 2: Consumer Behavior and Market Trends - During the "Black Friday" shopping season, 1.87 billion consumers are expected to participate, a record high, but average planned spending decreased by 4% to $622[7] - The U.S. consumer confidence index fell to 51 in November, down from 53.6 in October, marking a historical low[7] - In November, the PMI marginally increased by 0.2 percentage points, influenced by seasonal factors, with price indices performing better than recent futures market prices[10] Group 3: Risks and Policy Responses - Risks include U.S.-China trade tensions, tariff increases, and global supply chain adjustments, which may lead to export fluctuations and profit declines[3] - The Chinese government is focusing on enhancing consumer supply and demand compatibility through a new implementation plan aimed at optimizing consumption structures by 2027[19] - The price of lithium iron phosphate increased by 12.5% from 34,800 yuan/ton to 39,100 yuan/ton due to regulatory measures against price competition[15]

Core Viewpoint - The "15th Five-Year Plan" emphasizes maintaining economic growth within a reasonable range, aiming for an average GDP growth rate of approximately 4.8% during this period, with specific targets of around 5% for 2026-2027 and 4.5-5% for 2028-2030, indicating a need for an expansionary and proactive policy stance [2][3][5]. Economic Growth Targets - Historical data shows that previous five-year plans often set GDP growth targets that were exceeded, with average growth rates of 9.8% and 11.3% during the "10th" and "11th" plans, respectively, while the "14th" plan aimed for a reasonable range [4]. - The potential GDP growth for the "15th Five-Year Plan" is estimated to be between 4.8% and 4.9%, with a specific focus on achieving an average of 4.84% during this period [6]. Policy Recommendations - The central government is advised to increase leverage and implement more aggressive fiscal and moderately loose monetary policies, including maintaining a budget deficit rate around 4% and increasing special bond issuance [8]. - To stimulate consumption, policies should focus on direct financial support for residents, particularly in service sectors, and measures to stabilize the real estate market, such as lowering mortgage rates [9]. Long-term Economic Goals - By 2035, the goal is to achieve a per capita GDP of over $20,000, necessitating an average annual growth rate of 4.17% during the "15th" and "16th" plans, which reflects a baseline target rather than an aspirational goal [7]. - The "15th Five-Year Plan" aims for a higher growth rate of over 4.7% to stabilize social expectations and boost market confidence, thereby enhancing investment and consumption [7].

Market Overview - US stock markets experienced a half-day trading session on Friday, with all three major indices rising between 0.5% and 0.6%, and the Golden Dragon Index also increasing by 0.5%. If no significant negative news arises over the weekend, A-shares and Hong Kong stocks may open slightly higher on Monday, marking a modest start to December [1] - The offshore RMB has surged significantly this year, rising by 2,600 basis points, with a single-day increase of 295 basis points on Friday [1] Index Adjustments - The Shanghai Stock Exchange announced important adjustments to major indices, including the Shanghai 50, Shanghai 180, and Shanghai 380, reflecting a process of elimination and selection among stocks [2] Market Sentiment and Investment Principles - Recent stock trading has seen unusual reasons driving price movements, diverging from traditional positive news and themes. Investors are cautioned against using urgent funds for stock investments, emphasizing the principle of investing only surplus funds [2] - The market is warned about the potential for speculative themes that may mislead investors, highlighting the importance of adhering to sound investment principles [2] Economic Outlook - The market has experienced a significant bull run over the past year, with the index rising from 2,689 points to 4,034 points since September 18, 2024. High dividend sectors have laid the foundation for this growth, while growth sectors have acted as leaders [3] - The probability of a Federal Reserve interest rate cut in December is increasing, which may lead to a capital outflow from the US. This trend should be closely monitored for its implications on the capital markets next year [3] Consumer Policy and Investment Opportunities - Six government departments have introduced policies to encourage consumption, which warrants further investigation into potential consumer hotspots and investment opportunities arising from these initiatives [3] - The emergence of new consumption scenarios and innovative products is expected to contribute positively to the market [4] Trading Dynamics and Risks - The trading volume has reached historical highs, with 376 trillion yuan recorded over the past 11 months. A decrease in trading volume is anticipated for the next year, posing challenges for identifying quality stocks [4] - Investors are advised to maintain a rational and value-oriented investment approach, especially in light of the high turnover rates observed during the bull market [4]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints - On November 26, 2025, equity index futures showed mixed performance, CGB futures declined, and commodity futures displayed divergence with the energy and chemical sectors leading the declines [2][4][11]. - China issued the "Implementation Plan on Enhancing the Adaptability Between Supply and Demand of Consumer Goods to Further Promote Consumption" [1][3][35]. - The Guangzhou Futures Exchange announced the listing benchmark prices for platinum and palladium futures contracts, which will be listed for trading on November 27, 2025 [37][38][39]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 China Futures 3.1.1 Overview - Financial futures: IH rose by 0.14%, IM rose by 0.42%, TL fell by 0.86% [11][14]. - Commodity futures: The top three gainers were Peanut Kernel (up 4.0% with open interest increasing by 19.6% MoM), Polysilicon (up 2.9% with open interest increasing by 10.8% MoM), and Glass (up 1.9% with open interest decreasing by 2.4% MoM). The top three decliners were SCFIS (Europe) (down 7.6% with open interest decreasing by 8.7% MoM), PP (down 1.4% with open interest decreasing by 3.2% MoM), and Coke (down 1.3% with open interest increasing by 2.2% MoM) [12][13][14]. 3.1.2 Daily Raise - **Glass**: On November 26, it rose 1.9% to 1,037 yuan/ton. In a neutral macro environment, supply may see month - on - month output decline due to year - end cold repair expectations, while demand is weak. The futures price, at a premium to Hubei's spot with high valuation, factors in future cold repair hopes [17][18][19]. 3.1.3 Daily Drop - **Coking Coal**: On November 26, it fell 1.1% to 1084.5 yuan/ton. Central safety inspections had limited impact on supply, and imports from Mongolia will supplement domestic supply. Coke output fell month - on - month, and mid - downstream procurement slowed. Market sentiment cooled sharply [23][24][25]. - **Coke**: On November 26, it fell 1.3% to 1619 yuan/ton. Supply increased slightly as four rounds of price hikes were implemented, raw coal prices fell, and environmental restrictions were lifted. Demand was weak as steel mills' profits were pressured, and off - season maintenance increased. Inventory at coking enterprises increased slightly but remained low [30][31][32]. 3.2 China News 3.2.1 Macro News - The Ministry of Industry and Information Technology, National Development and Reform Commission, Ministry of Commerce, Ministry of Culture and Tourism, People's Bank of China, and State Administration for Market Regulation issued the "Implementation Plan on Enhancing the Adaptability Between Supply and Demand of Consumer Goods to Further Promote Consumption" [35][36]. 3.2.2 Industry News - The Guangzhou Futures Exchange announced that Platinum Futures and Palladium Futures will be listed for trading on November 27, 2025, with specific listing benchmark prices for each contract [37][38][39].

Core Insights - The consumer market in October showed stable growth, with service consumption emerging as a key economic highlight [1][2] - Service retail sales from January to October increased by 5.3% year-on-year, outpacing the growth rate of goods retail sales by 0.9 percentage points [1] - The National Bureau of Statistics indicated that the growth in service consumption is becoming a significant driver of overall consumer spending [1][2] Group 1: Service Consumption Growth - Service retail sales growth accelerated by 0.1 percentage points compared to the first three quarters of the year [1] - The increase in service consumption was driven by the National Day and Mid-Autumn Festival, leading to higher spending in dining, accommodation, and entertainment sectors [1] - Dining revenue rose by 3.8% year-on-year in October, with a significant acceleration of 2.9 percentage points compared to September [1] Group 2: Transportation and Travel Trends - During the National Day and Mid-Autumn holiday, the total inter-regional movement of people reached 2.433 billion, averaging 304 million per day, a 6.3% increase compared to the 2024 holiday [2] - The growth in travel-related services, including tourism and transportation, saw retail sales increase by over 10% from January to October [2] Group 3: Policy Support and Future Outlook - Recent government meetings emphasized the need for policies to enhance the adaptability of supply and demand in the consumer market [2] - Experts suggest that expanding consumption scenarios and breaking institutional barriers are crucial for future economic growth, particularly in sectors like education, healthcare, and elderly care [3] - The National Bureau of Statistics highlighted the importance of implementing special actions to boost consumption and innovate new consumption models [3]

11月17日早盘，港股消费板块早盘低开后窄幅震荡，港股消费ETF（513230）现小幅微跌近0.5%。 持仓股中，统一企业中国、新秀丽、康师傅控股、波司登、万洲国际等涨幅居前，巨子生物、零跑汽 车、蜜雪集团、思摩尔国际、百威亚太等跌幅居前。 每日经济新闻 （责任编辑：董萍萍 ） 【免责声明】本文仅代表作者本人观点，与和讯网无关。和讯网站对文中陈述、观点判断保持中立，不对所包含内容 的准确性、可靠性或完整性提供任何明示或暗示的保证。请读者仅作参考，并请自行承担全部责任。邮箱： news_center@staff.hexun.com 华泰证券估算，2025年电商"双十一"大促季行业层面增长温和，GMV或同比增长中高个位数至 10%之间，平稳增长得益于各平台的积极补贴及大促时间线的进一步拉长，但亦部分被去年同期国补行 动带来的较高家电品类销售额基数所抵消。平台角度，主要电商平台或延续分化表现。展望2026年，预 计电商平台围绕流量入口、核心用户权益等维度的竞争将延续激烈态势。消费者终端商品价格的企稳则 是电商平台及上游供货商业绩表现企稳的重要驱动，潜在的政策刺激及消费者情绪的边际变化值得持续 关注。 港股消费ETF ...