欧佩克+将于1月4日举行月度视频会议，审议一项最初在11月作出的决定——在今年较快恢复产量之 后，于明年一季度暂停进一步提高供应。 多名欧佩克+代表表示，在全球原油供应过剩迹象日益明显的背景下，欧佩克+代表本周末召开会议 时，预计将坚持既定的暂停增产计划。 欧佩克+是石油输出国组织（欧佩克）和以俄罗斯为首的国家组成的联盟，其原油产量占全球原油总产 量的近一半。 俄罗斯的石油基础设施和油轮则遭到乌克兰袭击，相关行动还波及另一个欧佩克+国家——哈萨克斯 坦。 与此同时，在也门战争背景下，沙特阿拉伯与邻国阿联酋的关系也罕见地出现公开紧张。沙特周二呼吁 阿联酋停止支持在也门活动的武装组织。 作为全球最大的原油出口国，沙特在欧佩克内部占据主导地位。即使在更广泛的欧佩克+框架下，也只 有俄罗斯能在话语权上与沙特分庭抗礼。 今年4月，在全球市场供应充足的情况下，沙特及其盟友仍加速恢复自2023年以来暂停的石油供应，令 油市交易员大感意外。 这些代表称，欧佩克+在本月初的会议上已确认这一政策，1月会议很可能再次予以确认。 今年以来，原油期货价格累计下跌17%，正迈向自2020年新冠疫情以来最大年度跌幅。价格下跌的主要 原因是 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No specific investment rating is provided in the report. 2. Core View of the Report - The crude oil market is in a supply - surplus situation, with expectations of weak and volatile crude oil prices. Attention should be paid to the situation in Venezuela and the progress of Russia - Ukraine peace talks [1]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1. Market Analysis - Eight OPEC+ oil - producing countries with additional voluntary production cuts reaffirmed the suspension of production increases in the first quarter of next year. The peak season for crude oil demand has ended. EIA data shows that U.S. crude oil inventories have increased more than expected, along with an increase in refined oil inventories, and the overall oil product inventories continue to rise [1]. - U.S. crude oil production has continued to decline slightly but remains near the historical high. After the U.S. - Ukraine talks, Trump said that significant progress has been made in ending the Russia - Ukraine conflict, with discussions covering nearly 95% of key issues [1]. - European refined oil crack spreads have stabilized after a continuous decline from the high level. The EU has decided to extend economic sanctions against Russia for another 6 months until July 31, 2026. Tensions between the U.S. and Venezuela have led to concerns about export disruptions in Venezuela [1]. - The crack spreads of refined oil in Europe and the U.S. are low. After the Fed's December interest - rate meeting, the market still worries about crude oil demand. The number of U.S. oil drilling platforms has increased, OPEC+ continues to increase production, and exports in the Middle East have risen [1]. 3.2. Futures and Spot Market Conditions - Today, the main crude oil futures contract, the 2602 contract, rose 0.11% to 436.1 yuan/ton, with a minimum price of 434.9 yuan/ton and a maximum price of 439.7 yuan/ton. The trading volume decreased by 1796 to 30384 lots [2]. 3.3. Fundamental Tracking - The EIA monthly report raised U.S. crude oil production in the fourth quarter of 2025 by 40,000 barrels per day to 13.86 million barrels per day, non - OPEC+ oil supply by 50,000 barrels per day, and global crude oil production by 300,000 barrels per day. It also lowered global oil demand in the fourth quarter of 2025 by 90,000 barrels per day [3]. - The IEA raised the global oil demand growth rate in 2025 by 40,000 barrels per day to 830,000 barrels per day and in 2026 by 90,000 barrels per day to 860,000 barrels per day. It also lowered the global oil supply growth rate in 2025 by 100,000 barrels per day and in 2026 by 20,000 barrels per day [3]. - OPEC maintained the global oil demand growth rate in 2025 at 1.3 million barrels per day and in 2026 at 1.38 million barrels per day [3]. - On the morning of December 30, U.S. EIA data showed that for the week ending December 19, U.S. crude oil inventories increased by 405,000 barrels, far exceeding the expected decrease of 2.432 million barrels, and were 3.43% lower than the five - year average. Gasoline inventories increased by 2.862 million barrels, exceeding the expected increase of 1.118 million barrels, and refined oil inventories increased by 202,000 barrels, less than the expected increase of 440,000 barrels. Cushing crude oil inventories increased by 707,000 barrels [1][3]. 3.4. Supply and Demand - OPEC's latest monthly report shows that OPEC's crude oil production in October 2025 was reduced by 21,000 barrels per day to 28.481 million barrels per day, and its production in November decreased by 1,000 barrels per day to 28.48 million barrels per day, mainly driven by production cuts in Iraq and Iran. OPEC+ crude oil production in November increased by 43,000 barrels per day compared to October to 43.06 million barrels per day [4]. - U.S. crude oil production for the week ending December 19 decreased by 18,000 barrels per day to 13.825 million barrels per day, remaining near the historical high [1][4]. - The four - week average supply of U.S. crude oil products increased to 20.539 million barrels per day, a year - on - year increase of 0.98%. Among them, weekly gasoline demand decreased by 1.50% to 8.942 million barrels per day, and the four - week average demand was 8.701 million barrels per day, a year - on - year decrease of 1.92%. Weekly diesel demand increased by 9.77% to 4.156 million barrels per day, and the four - week average demand was 3.883 million barrels per day, a year - on - year decrease of 0.44%. The single - week supply of U.S. crude oil products decreased by 1.28% month - on - month, mainly driven by a significant decline in gasoline and propane [4].

Report Information - Industry: Crude Oil [1] - Date: December 30, 2025 [2] Investment Rating - Not provided Core Viewpoint - The short - term fundamentals of the crude oil market are neutral, and the market continues to trade based on geopolitical situations. It is advisable to wait and see in the short term. As supply remains in excess, short - selling positions can be entered at an appropriate time [7]. Summary by Directory 1. Market Review and Operation Suggestions - **Market Quotes**: WTI's opening price was $58.35, closing price was $56.93, with a high of $58.88, a low of $56.65, a decline of 2.43%, and a trading volume of 14.83 million lots. Brent's opening price was $61.9, closing price was $60.33, with a high of $62.26, a low of $60.16, a decline of 2.38%, and a trading volume of 16.06 million lots. SC's opening price was 441.5 yuan/barrel, closing price was 434.8 yuan/barrel, with a high of 441.8 yuan/barrel, a low of 431.9 yuan/barrel, a decline of 1.94%, and a trading volume of 7.32 million lots [6]. - **News**: US - Ukraine leaders met. Trump said significant progress was made in ending the Russia - Ukraine conflict, covering nearly 95% of key issues, and the situation was close to reaching an agreement. The key difference lies in the territorial issue. The US strengthened sanctions on Venezuelan crude oil, directly affecting about 400,000 barrels per day. The supply of about 150,000 barrels per day to the US is expected to be unaffected [6]. - **Data**: Weekly data shows that crude oil inventories continued to decline, refinery crude oil input reached the highest level in the same period in 5 years, while refined oil performance was relatively weak, with continuous inventory accumulation of gasoline and diesel, which is not conducive to maintaining high - level refinery operations. In the medium term, oversupply will continue to suppress oil prices, and there is a possibility of a new low [6]. 2. Industry News - Iranian President Pezeshkian warned the US and Israel not to launch new military attacks, or Iran will respond firmly. Trump said that the US is getting closer to reaching a Russia - Ukraine agreement, and there are one or two difficult issues in the negotiation. Ukraine may need a referendum or parliamentary approval for relevant plans [8]. 3. Data Overview - The report includes multiple data charts, such as global high - frequency crude oil inventory, EIA crude oil inventory, US crude oil production growth rate, Dtd Brent price, WTI spot price, Oman spot price, US gasoline consumption, and US diesel consumption [10][13][21][23]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating There is no information about the report industry investment rating provided in the content. 2. Core Views - In 2025, crude oil prices showed a weak oscillation. Brent spot prices dropped from $77 per barrel at the beginning of the year to $63 per barrel currently, a decline of 18.18%. Looking ahead to 2026, the overall supply of crude oil is expected to exceed demand, and prices will decline in Q1. Brent crude may fall below the lowest point in 2025. [4] - In 2026, on the supply side, OPEC+ will take a flexible approach to production increases. Non-OPEC+ supplies from countries like Brazil and Canada are expected to increase by about 1.15 million barrels per day. On the demand side, due to weak global economic recovery and new energy substitution, the growth rate of crude oil demand in 2026 is expected to be 1.1 million barrels per day. [4] - Low oil prices will suppress crude oil production. With Trump's economic stimulus and the arrival of the peak consumption season for crude oil, prices are expected to gradually bottom out and rebound in Q2. [4] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 2025 Domestic Crude Oil Price Trends - In 2025, crude oil prices showed a weak oscillation. Brent spot prices dropped from $77 per barrel at the beginning of the year to $63 per barrel, a decline of 18.18%. The internal and external price spreads oscillated within a range throughout the year. [12] Crude Oil Supply Surplus - In 2025, global crude oil supply increased by 3.01 million barrels per day year-on-year to 106.18 million barrels per day, while demand increased by 1.14 million barrels per day year-on-year to 103.9 million barrels per day, resulting in a supply surplus of 2.24 million barrels per day. EIA predicts a surplus of 2.26 million barrels per day in 2026. [22] Crude Oil Production - OPEC+ gradually lifted production cuts in 2025. OPEC's crude oil production in October was adjusted down by 21,000 barrels per day to 28.481 million barrels per day, and in November it decreased by 1,000 barrels per day month-on-month to 28.48 million barrels per day. OPEC+ production in November increased by 43,000 barrels per day month-on-month to 43.06 million barrels per day, an increase of 2.42 million barrels per day compared to the beginning of the year. [28] - Russia's sustainable crude oil production capacity has been declining. In October, the US imposed sanctions on two major Russian oil companies, which account for about half of Russia's oil exports. However, Russia may reduce the impact of sanctions through various means. [35] - Iran's crude oil production decreased from 3.278 million barrels per day at the beginning of the year to 3.221 million barrels per day in November. Venezuela's production increased from 913,000 barrels per day at the beginning of the year to 934,000 barrels per day in November. [39] - In 2025, US oil drilling rigs decreased, but production efficiency increased. US crude oil production remained stable at around 13.5 million barrels per day and reached a record high in November. It is expected to decrease by 80,000 barrels per day to 13.53 million barrels per day in 2026. [43] - Non-OPEC+ countries such as Canada, Brazil, and Guyana are important growth points for crude oil production in 2026. EIA predicts that non-OPEC countries will increase production by 1.13 million barrels per day in total. [47] China's Crude Oil Market - From January to November 2025, China's crude oil processing volume increased by 4.0% year-on-year to 675.07 million tons, and imports increased by 3.2% year-on-year to 521.87 million tons. The non-state trade import quota for 2026 is 257 million tons, the same as in 2025. [52] - In 2025, China's major refinery operating rates followed seasonal fluctuations, with higher rates in Q3 and lower rates in Q4. Shandong independent refineries had lower operating rates, between 45% - 55%. [57] - Affected by economic slowdown and new energy substitution, the growth rate of China's refined oil products slowed down. From January to October, the apparent consumption of aviation kerosene increased slightly, while gasoline and diesel consumption decreased. [62] - From January to October 2025, China's exports of diesel and gasoline decreased, while aviation kerosene exports increased. [62] - From January to October 2025, China's natural gas heavy truck sales and new energy passenger vehicle sales increased, and their market shares also increased. It is expected that the penetration rate of new energy vehicles will further increase in 2026. [67] US Crude Oil Market - As of the week ending December 12, US crude oil imports decreased by 64,000 barrels per day week-on-week to 6.525 million barrels per day, and exports increased by 655,000 barrels per day to 4.664 million barrels per day. The average net imports in 2025 decreased by 9.81% year-on-year. [72] - In November 2025, the US core CPI and overall CPI increased at a slower pace. The Fed cut interest rates three times in 2025, and the market has different expectations for interest rate cuts in 2026. [77] - In 2025, the cracking spreads of gasoline and diesel in Europe and the US first increased and then decreased. It is expected that the cracking spreads of refined oil products in Europe and the US will have greater elasticity in 2026. [81][86] - In 2025, US gasoline and diesel demand decreased year-on-year. EIA predicts that US oil consumption demand will decrease by 10,000 barrels per day to 20.58 million barrels per day in 2026. [92] - In 2025, the operating rate of US refineries was relatively high, and the crude oil input volume also increased. After the autumn maintenance, the operating rate and input volume recovered quickly. [97] - As of the week ending December 12, US crude oil inventories decreased, while gasoline and refined oil inventories increased. The strategic petroleum reserve increased for 21 consecutive weeks. [102][107][112] Global Demand and Inventory - In 2025, India's oil demand increased slightly, while Europe's decreased slightly. [117][122] - The IMF predicts that the global economic growth rate will slow down in 2026. Emerging markets and developing economies will also see a decline in growth rates, while developed economies will remain stable. [124] - Different institutions have different predictions for global crude oil demand growth in 2026. EIA, IEA, and OPEC have different views on the growth rates in 2025 and 2026. [128] - EIA predicts that the inventory of OECD commercial crude oil and other liquids will continue to increase until Q4 2026, and the global crude oil inventory has returned to the level since 2021. [133] Geopolitical Risks - Geopolitical events such as the Russia-Ukraine conflict and the Israel-Iran conflict have affected the crude oil market, but most of the time, the impact on supply and transportation is not substantial, and the market returns to fundamental pricing after short-term disturbances. [137] - In 2025, the situation in Venezuela, the progress of Russia-Ukraine peace talks, and the possibility of Israel attacking Iran again are the main geopolitical factors affecting the crude oil market. [137]

Group 1: Silver Market Dynamics - The price of silver has surged to $79.19 per ounce, surpassing the price of WTI crude oil at $56.74 per barrel, a situation not seen since April 2020 [1] - There is a strong demand for silver from both investors and industries, with significant accumulation in both physical and financial forms for wealth storage and as a hedge against currency risks [3] - The solar industry consumes nearly 30% of the annual silver production from mining and recycling, indicating robust demand despite potential reductions in U.S. solar support [3] Group 2: Supply Constraints - The supply of silver is unlikely to see significant new production, as global "pure silver" deposits are nearly exhausted, with most silver now being a byproduct of mining other metals like copper, gold, and zinc [3][4] - Changes in silver supply are often driven by the demand for other metals rather than silver itself [4] Group 3: Precious Metals Price Risks - Analysts warn that precious metal prices are at risk of a correction, with some predicting silver could drop to around $42 by the end of next year as enthusiasm for gold wanes [5] - The oil market is facing pressure from oversupply, with WTI crude prices down over 20% year-to-date, and Brent crude down over 19%, both near their lowest levels since 2022 [5] - Energy executives expect oil prices to average around $62 per barrel for next year's capital expenditure planning, significantly lower than previous estimates [5]

本周五，国际油价每桶下跌超 1 美元。 本周五，国际油价每桶下跌超 1 美元。 市场对全球原油供应过剩的担忧日益加剧，同时乌克兰和平协议谈判迎来曙光，乌总统泽连斯基与美国 总统特朗普拟于本周末举行会谈，地缘冲突风险溢价有所回落，投资者权衡多重因素后选择抛售。 截至发稿，WTI原油日内跌2%，现报57.18美元/桶。 尽管近期供应中断问题推动油价从 12 月 16 日触及的近五年低点反弹，但国际油价仍大概率创下 2020 年以来最显著的年度跌幅。 受原油产量攀升影响，市场对明年供应过剩的担忧持续发酵，年内布伦特原油与美油价格分别累计下跌 18% 和 20%。 责任编辑：陈钰嘉 市场对全球原油供应过剩的担忧日益加剧，同时乌克兰和平协议谈判迎来曙光，乌总统泽连斯基与美国 总统特朗普拟于本周末举行会谈，地缘冲突风险溢价有所回落，投资者权衡多重因素后选择抛售。 截至发稿，WTI原油日内跌2%，现报57.18美元/桶。 尽管近期供应中断问题推动油价从 12 月 16 日触及的近五年低点反弹，但国际油价仍大概率创下 2020 年以来最显著的年度跌幅。 受原油产量攀升影响，市场对明年供应过剩的担忧持续发酵，年内布伦特原油与美 ...

来源：环球市场播报 受美国对委内瑞拉原油出口实施部分封锁、以及美方对尼日利亚武装组织发动军事打击两大事件影响， 国际油价迎来10 月末以来最大单周涨幅。 国际原油基准布伦特原油期货价格站上每桶 62 美元，本周累计涨幅超 3%；美国西德克萨斯轻质原油 期货价格则突破每桶 58 美元。美方持续向委内瑞拉施压，一艘受制裁的委内瑞拉运油船在美军的追踪 下，最终驶离了这个南美国家。 据一位知情匿名人士透露，白宫已下令美军指挥官在未来两个月内，将工作重心放在全面阻断委内瑞拉 原油外运上；美方目前的行动几乎完全聚焦于海上封锁，暂未考虑采取军事打击类手段。 布伦特原油今年的价格跌幅已达 16%，或将创下 2020 年以来的年度最大跌幅。此次油价走跌的核心原 因是市场普遍预期原油供应过剩：欧佩克 + 成员国及其他产油国均扩大了原油产能，全球主流原油贸 易机构几乎一致预判，2026 年全球原油市场将出现供过于求的局面。不过，地缘政治冲突的持续升 级，为油价筑牢了价格支撑底线。 地缘局势的紧张态势进一步加剧：美国总统唐纳德・特朗普证实，美方已对尼日利亚西北部的 "伊斯兰 国" 目标发起精准且致命的强力军事打击；美国国防部长皮特・ ...

原油周度报告 阳光光 从业资格号：F03142459 投资咨询号：Z0021764 中航期货 2025-12-26 重点数据 （1）美国至12月12日当周EIA原油库存 -127.4万桶，预期-106.6万桶，前值-181.2万桶。 （2）美国至12月12日当周EIA俄克拉荷马州库欣原油库存 -74.2万桶，前值30.8万桶。 （3）美国至12月12日当周EIA战略石油储备库存 24.9万桶，前值24.8万桶。 目录 01 报告摘要 03 宏观分析 02 多空焦点 04 供需分析 05 后市研判 报告PA摘RT要 01 （1）美国加大扣押委内瑞拉油轮的力度。 （2）俄乌和平方案谈判持续推进。 （3）EIA数据推迟至下周公布。 市场焦点 主要观点 受美委紧张关系升温的影响，本周油价触底反弹，整体呈现震荡偏强的走势。美国政府于周末扣押一艘未受制裁 的油轮，此前美国总统特朗普宣布将对受制裁的油轮进出委内瑞拉进行封锁，此举引发市场对美国政府进一步加大限 制措施的担忧，地缘风险溢价推动油价上行，但有市场消息称，目前委内瑞拉石油装载活动仍以接近正常的速度进行， 在一定程度限制油价上行空间。综合来看，原油供应过剩的预期仍是 ...

Group 1: Gold Market - The current spot gold price is trading at approximately $4507.61 per ounce, having opened at $4479 and reached a new historical high, indicating strong bullish momentum [1][5] - The recent surge in gold prices is driven by multiple factors, including market expectations of continued interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve in 2026, ongoing geopolitical uncertainties, strong demand for gold from global central banks, and increased holdings in investment ETFs [1][5] - In a low-interest-rate environment, the appeal of non-yielding assets like gold has significantly increased [1][5] Group 2: Technical Analysis of Gold - Despite a slight weakening in bullish momentum, gold prices remain in an upward trend, with potential to test the key resistance level of $4530 per ounce [2][6] - If gold successfully breaks through the $4530 resistance, the next upward targets are projected to be in the range of $4561 to $4593 [2][6] - Key support levels to watch include $4477, with a potential technical pullback if this level is breached, targeting a range of $4427 to $4446 [2][6] Group 3: WTI Crude Oil Market - The current price of WTI crude oil is around $58.5 per barrel, influenced by ongoing high-intensity conflict between Russia and Ukraine, which has led to significant geopolitical risks and a rebound in oil prices [1][5] - The oil market faces persistent pressure from oversupply, which continues to suppress prices despite short-term rebounds [1][5] Group 4: Technical Analysis of WTI Crude Oil - The short-term outlook for crude oil shows a pattern of oscillating rebounds, but the long-term trend remains bearish, with key resistance levels between $58.8 and $59.6 [3][7] - If oil prices fail to break through the $59.0 level, the risk of further declines persists, with critical support at $57.0 and $56.50 [3][7] - The market's buying strength appears limited, indicating a cautious approach to trading in the short term [3][7]

Group 1: Report Information - Report Type: Crude Oil Daily Report [1] - Date: December 26, 2025 [2] - Research Team: Energy and Chemical Research Team [4] Group 2: Market Review and Operation Suggestions - **Market Quotes** - WTI主力: Opened at $58.47, closed at $58.4, highest at $58.75, lowest at $58.13, up 0.03%, with a trading volume of 9.64 million lots [6] - Brent主力: Opened at $61.97, closed at $61.84, highest at $62.22, lowest at $61.55, down 0.05%, with a trading volume of 16.58 million lots [6] - SC主力: Opened at 444 yuan/barrel, closed at 442.7 yuan/barrel, highest at 444.5 yuan/barrel, lowest at 440.9 yuan/barrel, up 0.02%, with a trading volume of 4.59 million lots [6] - **Operation Suggestions** - Short - term fundamentals are neutral, and the market is trading the US sanctions on Venezuela. It is advisable to wait and see in the short term. As supply remains in surplus, short positions can be entered at an appropriate time [7] Group 3: Core Viewpoints - US sanctions on Venezuelan crude oil directly affect about 400,000 barrels per day. The supply of about 150,000 barrels per day to the US is expected to be unaffected. Other buyers may either wait and see or increase purchases of other sanctioned oil types such as those from Russia or Iran [7] - Venezuelan export disruptions have a greater impact on the Chinese asphalt market than on the crude oil market. The asphalt situation can be used to judge Venezuelan exports [7] - Weekly data shows that crude oil inventories continue to decline, refinery crude input reaches the highest level in the same period in 5 years, while refined oil products are relatively weak, with gasoline and diesel inventories continuously increasing. This is unfavorable for maintaining high refinery operations, and the data is neutral [7] - In the medium term, crude oil supply surplus will continue to suppress oil prices, and there is a possibility of new lows [7] Group 4: Industry News - Russian Deputy Prime Minister Novak: Russia's oil production in 2025 is expected to be the same as in 2024, about 516 million tons. Oil consumption has increased by more than 1 million barrels per day annually in the past two years, and may reach 20 million barrels per day by 2050 [8] - US officials: The White House has ordered its troops to focus almost entirely on enforcing isolation measures on Venezuelan sanctioned oil for at least the next two months [8] - Russian President's Press Secretary Peskov: There is currently no plan to arrange a phone call between Putin and Trump [8] Group 5: Data Overview - Data includes global high - frequency crude oil inventories, EIA crude oil inventories, US crude oil production growth rate, Dtd Brent price, WTI spot price, Oman spot price, US gasoline consumption, and US diesel consumption [11][12][14][21] - Data sources are EIA, Bloomberg, and wind, as well as the Research and Development Department of CCB Futures [10][13][16]