1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - In 2025, OPEC+ shifted its crude oil production policy from "production cuts to maintain prices" to "increasing production to seize market share", and the change in OPEC+ production policy has become an important event to continuously track on the supply side of the oil market [1][16]. - After the end of the peak oil consumption season in September, demand declined, but the pressure of oversupply was not fully apparent. With the weakening demand and the pressure of OPEC+ to increase production, the expectation of global crude oil oversupply may gradually be confirmed starting from October, the pressure of crude oil inventory accumulation will increase, commercial crude oil inventory may turn into an accumulation trend, and the pressure of global crude oil oversupply will gradually emerge, and the center of oil prices may continue to decline [1][16]. - The signing of the Gaza cease - fire agreement has eased the situation in the Middle East, and combined with the recent escalation of Sino - US trade frictions, international oil prices have continued to weaken recently [3]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Global Crude Oil Supply Exceeds Demand - In September 2025, global crude oil supply was 108.49 million barrels per day, and demand was 104.61 million barrels per day, showing a supply - demand pattern of supply exceeding demand. For the fourth quarter of 2025, the expected global oil supply is 107.31 million barrels per day, and the expected demand is 104.72 million barrels per day, also with supply exceeding demand [4]. - OPEC expects that with strong economic activity boosting transportation fuel demand, global daily oil demand will increase by 1.3 million barrels this year and 1.38 million barrels next year. In September, OPEC's daily crude oil production was 28.44 million barrels, a month - on - month increase of 524,000 barrels, and OPEC+ members' daily crude oil production was 43.05 million barrels, a month - on - month increase of 630,000 barrels [6]. - Before the National Day, the market expected that Saudi Arabia would lead OPEC+ to increase production by 400,000 - 500,000 barrels per day, but at the October 5th OPEC+ meeting, it was decided to increase production by 137,000 barrels per day in November, the same as in October, which was lower than market expectations [8][9]. 3.2 Record - High US Crude Oil Production - As of the week ending October 3, the daily US crude oil production was 13.629 million barrels, an increase of 124,000 barrels from the previous week and 229,000 barrels from the same period last year. The four - week average daily production as of October 3 was 13.529 million barrels, 1.9% higher than the same period last year [10]. - As of the week ending October 3, the number of active US oil - drilling rigs was 422, 2 less than the previous week and 57 less than the same period last year [10]. 3.3 Fourth - Quarter Crude Oil Enters the Off - Season of Consumption - Due to possible increases in OPEC+ production, reduced crude oil processing by global refineries during maintenance, and seasonal decline in future demand, oil inventory accumulation will accelerate. As of the week ending October 3, US crude oil inventory increased by 3.72 million barrels from the previous week [12]. 3.4 Escalation of Sino - US Trade Frictions - In September and October 2025, the US imposed export controls on Chinese enterprises, and China also took counter - measures such as export controls and antitrust investigations. The escalation of Sino - US trade frictions may have a negative impact on the global economy and suppress global crude oil demand growth [15]. 3.5 Outlook for the Future - The change in OPEC+ production policy, the end of the peak consumption season, the decline in refinery demand, and the pressure of OPEC+ to increase production may lead to a gradual confirmation of the oversupply situation starting from October, an increase in inventory accumulation pressure, and a possible further decline in the center of oil prices [1][16].

Core Viewpoint - The international oil prices are under significant pressure due to a combination of oversupply, geopolitical tensions, and economic uncertainties, with WTI crude futures falling below $60 per barrel and Brent crude futures below $64 per barrel [1][2][3]. Supply and Demand Dynamics - The global oil market is facing a supply surplus, exacerbated by OPEC+ continuing to increase production, with a reported increase of 137,000 barrels per day starting in November, which is lower than market expectations of 500,000 barrels per day [4][5]. - Major institutions, including the International Energy Agency (IEA), OPEC, and the U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA), have a pessimistic outlook for oil demand in the fourth quarter, indicating limited growth in demand [1][3][8]. Economic and Geopolitical Factors - The U.S. government's potential trade war, including threats of high tariffs on Chinese goods, is contributing to market uncertainty and rising risk aversion among investors [1][4]. - The easing of geopolitical tensions in the Middle East has led to a decrease in risk premiums, further pressuring oil prices [4]. Market Sentiment and Future Outlook - Analysts suggest that the current oversupply situation is likely to persist in the short to medium term, with oil prices facing downward pressure due to increased production and weak demand [7][8]. - The IEA predicts that global oil demand will peak by 2027, with a significant increase in oil production capacity expected, potentially leading to a prolonged period of low oil prices [8].

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints - Last week, crude oil prices first rose and then fell, with prices dropping significantly at the end of the week due to risk events. The prices of NYMEX WTI, Brent, and Shanghai crude oil futures all declined, with weekly drops of 4.17%, 3.53%, and 7.23% respectively. The current fundamental environment of the crude oil market is mainly bearish, and short - term oil prices are expected to be weak [5]. - In the short term, it is recommended to operate within the range of 430 - 465, and take a wait - and - see approach for long - term investment [9]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Review - Price movements: NYMEX WTI crude oil futures closed at $57.84 per barrel, down 4.17% for the week; Brent crude oil futures closed at $62.09 per barrel, down 3.53% for the week; Shanghai crude oil futures closed at 445 yuan per barrel, down 7.23% for the week [5]. - Supply: OPEC+ will increase daily oil production by 137,000 barrels starting from November. The market's concern about potential supply surplus persists, and the increase is in line with October, lower than expected [5]. - Demand: The uncertainty of US - China trade relations and the US government shutdown have increased concerns on the demand side. The threat of "large - scale tariff hikes" on Chinese imports by Trump has further increased the downward pressure on oil prices [5]. - Market sentiment: The net long positions of Brent crude oil futures speculators decreased by 61,713 contracts to 147,400 contracts in the week of October 7. The net long positions of WTI crude oil speculators increased by 4,249 contracts to 102,958 contracts as of the week of September 23. The data of WTI was suspended due to the government shutdown, and the data of Brent reflected extremely pessimistic market expectations for the future [5]. 3.2 Related News - Citi Group reported that some clients doubt whether the $60 per barrel price floor of Brent crude oil can trigger supply - demand reactions. Some participants expect a more gentle price correction, and there is inventory accumulation in some regions. The slowdown of non - OPEC+ production growth, OPEC+'s policy flexibility, and geopolitical risks are factors affecting price trends [6]. - Bloomberg reported that the benchmark oil price has dropped by about 10% this year, mainly due to the expected supply surplus after OPEC+ gradually cancels production cuts. Currently, the global seaborne crude oil transportation volume is as high as 1.2 billion barrels, the highest level since at least 2016. Asia has been absorbing most of the estimated surplus supply [6]. - The US federal government has been in a "shutdown" for 11 days, and about 4,200 employees in multiple departments are affected. The US Government Employees Union has filed a lawsuit [6]. - A cease - fire agreement in the Gaza Strip came into effect at noon on the 10th local time [6]. 3.3 Outlook - Geopolitical factors: The cease - fire agreement between Israel and Hamas weakens the geopolitical premium and suppresses the willingness to go long. Trump's remarks on China's tariff issues and the escalation of disputes between the two countries have increased concerns about crude oil demand. The US government shutdown has further intensified these concerns. OPEC+ has not shown concern about the recent sharp drop in oil prices, and short - term oil prices are expected to be weak [8]. - Operational suggestions: Short - term operation within the range of 430 - 465, long - term wait - and - see [9]. 3.4 Fundamental Data - Spot prices: The prices of various types of crude oil such as Brent Dtd, WTI, etc. all declined last week, with the decline ranging from 0.57% to 2.12% [11]. - Inventory data: The Cushing inventory decreased by 763,000 barrels to 22.704 million barrels on October 3; the EIA inventory increased by 3.715 million barrels to 420.261 million barrels on October 3 [13][14]. 3.5持仓数据 - CFTC fund net long positions: As of September 23, the net long positions of WTI crude oil speculators increased by 4,249 contracts to 102,958 contracts [5]. - ICE fund net long positions: As of September 23, the net long positions of ICE crude oil decreased by 11,592 contracts to 220,579 contracts [21].

Core Viewpoint - The domestic retail price of refined oil is expected to decrease, marking the eighth reduction this year, as international crude oil prices have shown a downward trend, leading to a negative change rate for domestic reference crude oil prices [1][2]. Price Adjustment Summary - The latest data indicates that the retail price of gasoline and diesel is likely to be reduced by approximately 80 yuan per ton, following a negative change rate of -1.87% as of October 10 [2]. - Since 2025, there have been 19 rounds of adjustments in domestic refined oil retail prices, with a record of "six increases, seven decreases, and six stasis" [2]. Market Price Trends - As of October 10, the average market price for 92 gasoline was 7662 yuan per ton, down 1.03% from the previous adjustment cycle, while diesel averaged 6568 yuan per ton, down 0.91% [4]. - The recent price declines are attributed to increased pressure on refineries to reduce inventory during the dual holiday period of National Day and Mid-Autumn Festival, coupled with falling international crude oil prices [4][5]. Future Outlook - Analysts predict that the ongoing increase in oil production by OPEC+ and a calming geopolitical situation will lead to a continued risk of oversupply in the crude oil market, with overall demand remaining weak [5]. - The current oversupply situation, along with geopolitical disturbances and macroeconomic factors, is expected to create volatility in oil price movements [5].

Core Viewpoint - OPEC+ may reconsider its production increase plans due to weak crude oil imports from China, which could lead to a surplus in global oil supply and lower WTI crude prices below $60 per barrel in Q4 [3]. Group 1: China's Impact on Oil Imports - China's crude oil imports from September 1 to 21 averaged 10.9 million barrels per day, reflecting a year-on-year decline of 7.1% and a month-on-month decline of 15% [4]. Group 2: OPEC+ Production Decisions - OPEC+ decided to increase production by 137,000 barrels per day in October, following a series of increases from April to September, which may result in a surplus of up to 600,000 barrels per day in Q4 [6]. - If oil prices drop to $55-$60 per barrel, U.S. shale oil production may decline, helping to rebalance the market [6]. Group 3: Inventory Trends - U.S. crude oil inventories are expected to continue rising, with a potential increase of 600,000 barrels per day due to oversupply [6]. - The fair value of WTI crude could drop to $40 per barrel in extreme scenarios, such as a significant economic slowdown, if U.S. comparable inventories rise by 10% to 847 million barrels [6][8].

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content Core Viewpoints - In October, geopolitical disturbances and supply surplus will continue to dominate the oil market. With the rising expectation of interest rate cuts and uncertainties in the Russia-Ukraine situation, but the extremely low level of crude oil inventories provides bottom support. It is expected that oil prices will continue to fluctuate mainly in the range of WTI $60 - $65 per barrel, similar to September. In the medium to long term, pay attention to shorting opportunities on rebounds caused by geopolitical disturbances. For safety, virtual call options can be used to hedge the risk of upward breakthrough due to sudden geopolitical events. The surplus pattern will further intensify in the next six months, and crude oil is still considered to be in a downward trend. Although OPEC+ has not clearly defined its production increase route, once oil prices rise, it will boost OPEC+'s enthusiasm for increasing production, which will always suppress the upside of oil prices [5]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 1. International Crude Oil Analysis - **Price Trend**: In September, the oil market was mainly driven by geopolitical and supply surplus factors, with prices fluctuating between WTI $60 - $65 per barrel. Geopolitical concerns pushed oil prices to challenge the upper pressure level, but they failed to break through effectively. When concerns about surplus intensified, potential geopolitical risks and low inventories supported oil prices above $60. As of September 30, the monthly average settlement prices of WTI and Brent were $63.57 per barrel (-3.21%) and $67.58 per barrel (-3.54%) respectively; the monthly average settlement price of INE SC was 486.19 yuan per barrel (-1.01%) [8]. - **Financial Aspect**: In September, the economic data released by the United States showed that inflation was controllable but employment was weak. At the beginning of the month, the expectation of interest rate cuts increased, and the Fed cut interest rates as scheduled at the September FOMC meeting and sent a dovish signal. As of September 30, the S&P 500 index continued to rebound since mid - April, reaching 6753.72; the VIX volatility was 16.3, significantly lower than when the tariff policy was first implemented and still at a low level this month [13]. - **Crude Oil Volatility and Dollar Index**: The crude oil ETF volatility and the dollar index fluctuated. As of September 30, the crude oil volatility ETF was 31.53, and the dollar index was 98.849. In September, the drivers of the crude oil market were intertwined with geopolitical, macroeconomic, and fundamental factors. Overall, the crude oil volatility remained at the bottom, lacking a strong driver to break through the oscillation range. The employment data released in September was worse than expected, combined with the Fed's interest rate cut, causing the dollar index to oscillate at a low level [17]. - **Crude Oil Fund Net Long Positions**: The net long positions of WTI funds increased, but the speculative net long positions decreased. As of September 23, the net long positions of WTI managed funds increased by 0.19 million contracts month - on - month to 2.65 million contracts, a monthly increase of 7.6%; the speculative net long positions decreased by 0.84 million contracts to 7.65 million contracts, a monthly decrease of 9.9%. There were obvious differences in the market, and the long positions of funds showed characteristics of left - hand side layout. Oil prices generally continued to oscillate within a range, and the trading volume had decreased significantly [20]. 2. Crude Oil Supply - Side Analysis - **OPEC Production**: In August, OPEC's crude oil production increased by 47.8 barrels per day to 2794.8 barrels per day compared with the previous month. Most countries have started to increase production, with Saudi Arabia, the UAE, and Iraq leading the pace. However, the production of the eight core OPEC+ countries that agreed to increase production was still 15.4 barrels per day lower than the plan in August, mainly because some countries were implementing their submitted compensatory production cut plans [25]. - **OPEC+ Production Cut Situation**: According to the IEA's statistical caliber, the production of nine OPEC member countries in August was 2328 barrels per day, an increase of 19 barrels per day compared with the previous month. Among them, the UAE, Iraq, Kuwait, and Kazakhstan still had significant over - production, but the overall over - production amplitude of the nine countries decreased compared with the previous month, perhaps because the organization's requirement to produce according to the quota began to have a certain effect. Seven countries updated their compensatory production cut plans, and the concentrated production cuts were extended to the first half of next year [29]. - **Saudi and Iranian Production**: Saudi Arabia's production continued to rise. In August, its crude oil production increased by 25.9 barrels per day to 970.9 barrels per day. Iran's production continued to decline. In August, its crude oil production decreased by 2.7 barrels per day to 321.8 barrels per day. Sanctions on Iran in late July and the 12 - day war between Israel and Iran in June hindered Iran's subsequent oil production, and the impact of geopolitics has begun to be reflected in its production [33]. - **Russian Supply**: According to OPEC's statistical caliber, Russia's crude oil production in August was 917.3 barrels per day, an increase of 5.3 barrels per day compared with the previous month; according to the IEA's statistical caliber, its production was 928 barrels per day, an increase of 8 barrels per day compared with the previous month. Under the production increase plan, production is gradually recovering but still at a relatively low level [41]. - **US Production**: As of the week of October 3, the number of active oil rigs in the US increased by 10 to 422 compared with the previous month, a year - on - year decrease of 57. The high oil prices during the peak season in the third quarter boosted producers' sentiment, and the number of drilling rigs stopped falling. The improvement in drilling and well efficiency enables producers to maintain record - high production while controlling capital expenditure. As of the week of October 3, US crude oil production rebounded, increasing by 12.4 barrels per day to 1362.9 barrels per day compared with the previous week and month, a year - on - year increase of 1.71%. The low oil prices in the first half of the year had suppressed producers' enthusiasm and compressed the increase in US oil production. However, the high oil prices since June seem to have boosted production enthusiasm again, and US crude oil production has continuously refreshed the historical record since last year in September [45][48]. 3. Crude Oil Demand - Side Analysis - **US Petroleum Product Demand**: As of the week of October 3, the total average daily demand for refined oil products in the US was 2089.7 barrels per day, an increase of 55.3 barrels per day compared with the previous week and a year - on - year increase of 1.68%. September is a period of seasonal weakening in oil product demand, and the weakening support of demand for oil prices has caused the oscillation center of oil prices to move down. In October, there will be a phased rebound peak in oil product demand [52]. - **US Crude Oil, Gasoline, and Distillate Data**: From September 5 to October 3, US crude oil production increased by 13.4 barrels per day, consumption increased by 0.9 barrels per day, refinery processing volume decreased by 52.1 barrels per day, and the refinery utilization rate decreased by 2.5 percentage points. Gasoline production increased by 16.6 barrels per day, and the implied demand decreased by 12.5 barrels per day. Distillate production decreased by 6 barrels per day, and the implied demand increased by 1.7 barrels per day [56]. - **US Gasoline, Diesel, and Kerosene Consumption**: As of the four - week period ending on October 3, the average demand for gasoline in the US increased by 10.3 barrels per day to 880.2 barrels per day, a year - on - year decrease of 2.62%; the average demand for distillates increased by 24.2 barrels per day to 383 barrels per day, a year - on - year decrease of 1.08%; the average consumption of kerosene decreased by 1.4 barrels per day to 164 barrels per day, a year - on - year decrease of 6.92% [57]. - **US Gasoline and Heating Oil Crack Spreads**: As of October 8, the gasoline crack spread was $17.65 per barrel, and the heating oil crack spread was $33.68 per barrel. In September, the crack spread trends were in line with the seasonality of each oil product. Gasoline entered the seasonal off - season as expected, and the spread continued to decline. The demand for distillates was still in the seasonal recovery period, and the crack spread performed better [61]. - **European Diesel and Heating Oil Crack Spreads**: As of October 8, the ICE diesel crack spread was $26.31 per barrel, and the heating oil crack spread was $29.98 per barrel. In the first half of the third quarter, European diesel performed better than heating oil due to low inventories and peak - season restocking demand. The overall oil products were in a relatively warm atmosphere driven by diesel, and the crack spreads continued to rise and remained at a high level in September [65]. - **China's Oil and Refinery Situation**: In August, China's crude oil processing volume increased by 439.1 million tons year - on - year to 6346 million tons (+7.43%); the import volume increased by 39.2 million tons year - on - year to 4949.2 million tons (+0.8%). Since the beginning of this year, the escalation of the Middle East situation has raised concerns about supply, leading to a surge in China's oil imports from the Gulf region. At the same time, the recovery of Russian oil supply has been much higher than the same period in previous years. The import volume rebounded seasonally in August [68]. - **Institutional Forecasts for Demand Growth**: Three major international institutions have become more optimistic about this year's demand growth. OPEC maintained its previous forecast, while the IEA and EIA raised their forecasts for global oil demand growth. In September, the EIA, IEA, and OPEC expected this year's global crude oil demand growth rates to be 90 barrels per day (↑), 74 barrels per day (↑), and 130 barrels per day (-) respectively. Next year's growth rates are expected to be 128 barrels per day, 70 barrels per day, and 140 barrels per day respectively [73]. 4. Crude Oil Inventory - Side Analysis - **US Crude Oil Inventory**: In September, US commercial crude oil inventories first decreased and then increased. As of October 3, EIA commercial crude oil inventories increased by 3.715 million barrels to 420.26 million barrels compared with the previous week, a year - on - year decrease of 0.59%; SPR inventories increased by 285,000 barrels to 406.99 million barrels; and Cushing crude oil inventories decreased by 763,000 barrels to 22.704 million barrels [74]. - **Inventory Changes**: As of the four - week period ending on October 3, the net import volume of US crude oil decreased by 71.3 barrels per day to 281.3 barrels per day. The refinery processing volume decreased by 52.1 barrels per day to 1629.7 barrels per day compared with the end of the previous month, and the refinery utilization rate rebounded by 1 percentage point to 92.4% last week [78]. - **WTI Monthly Spread**: The WTI monthly spread generally maintained a backwardation structure. As of September 30, the WTI M1 - M2 monthly spread was $0.44 per barrel, and the M1 - M5 monthly spread was $1.01 per barrel. The monthly spread indicator continued to weaken. As the demand for refined oil products in the US gradually peaks, the support of the peak season for oil prices begins to weaken. At the same time, with OPEC's accelerated production increase in the near term, the monthly spread may remain at a low level and rebound periodically during geopolitical disturbances [81]. - **Brent Monthly Spread**: The Brent monthly spread still maintained a backwardation structure. As of September 30, the Brent M1 - M2 monthly spread was $0.99 per barrel, and the M1 - M5 monthly spread was $1.88 per barrel. Similar to the WTI monthly spread, the Brent monthly spread also showed a contango pattern but was relatively stronger. This is because the sanctions imposed by Europe and the US on Russia due to the Russia - Ukraine conflict have made the supply outlook in the European region more tense [84]. 5. Crude Oil Supply - Demand Balance Difference - **Global Oil Supply - Demand Balance Sheet**: In September, the EIA predicted that this year's global oil supply would be 105.54 million barrels per day, and the demand would be 103.81 million barrels per day, with a daily surplus of 1.73 million barrels, which continued to increase compared with the previous month. Although the EIA raised its demand forecast in this period, due to OPEC+ opening a flexible production increase window of 1.65 million barrels per day, it is expected that the pressure of supply surplus will be greater this year [88]. - **Term Structure**: The US fundamental data indicates that the off - season has arrived, and the term structure continues to flatten. However, due to geopolitical factors, the supply of Brent still has a tight expectation, and the strong crack spread can support a more robust contango structure. Currently, international oil products can maintain a contango term structure. However, as the peak - season demand gradually weakens, if OPEC continues to accelerate production increase in the near term, the term structure may change [91].

Core Insights - The global oil supply is currently experiencing an oversupply, with 1.2 billion barrels of oil in transit, the highest level since 2016, primarily due to increased production from major oil-producing countries [3][4] - Despite the oversupply, China is actively increasing its strategic oil reserves, building 11 new oil storage facilities over the next two years, and importing oil at a rate close to 1 million barrels per day since the beginning of the year [4] Group 1: Oil Market Dynamics - The current situation indicates that most oil at sea is still in a state of searching for buyers rather than being in directed transport after a transaction, reflecting that oil demand is significantly lower than supply levels [3] - The increase in oil in transit does not account for floating storage, which, if included, would show an even higher total, reaching the peak since 2020 [3] Group 2: China's Strategic Moves - China has been absorbing a significant portion of the global oil surplus since the beginning of the year, indicating a strategic approach to oil procurement despite lower domestic demand [4] - The uncertainty in the oil market, particularly regarding production capacity trends, drives China to stockpile oil, as the current low prices are influenced by the slowdown in U.S. shale oil production and the withdrawal of OPEC+ production cuts [4] Group 3: OPEC+ Production Challenges - OPEC+ has been unable to meet its production targets consistently, raising concerns about its ability to respond effectively to sudden increases in demand due to depleted spare capacity [4] - The organization’s previous spare capacity, once seen as a safeguard for supply security, is now being consumed as they resume production after nearly three years of restrictions [4]

在经过了激烈谈判后，产油国联盟欧佩克+（OPEC+）上周日宣布，将从11月开始每日增产13.7万桶原 油。鉴于市场对潜在供应过剩的担忧持续存在，OPEC+此次选择与10月相同的温和增产幅度。由于规 模低于此前外界预期，周一国际油价跳空高开超1%，脱离四个月低位，不过价格战风险、宏观经济前 景和季节性需求下滑可能成为压制油价的短期因素。 继续小幅增产 石油输出国组织（OPEC）官网声明表示，该组织认为全球经济前景稳定，且得益于当前较低的原油库 存水平，市场基本面保持健康。 为了平衡疫情后市场，OPEC+2022年以来的减产规模在峰值时达到585万桶/日，这一减产额度由三部分 构成：220万桶/日的自愿减产、165万桶/日的额外减产，以及该组织全体成员共同实施的200万桶/日的 减产。 自今年4月起，OPEC+已放弃减产策略，一方面是为了提升市场份额，另一方面也是受到美国总统特朗 普施压，要求其降低油价。8个参与减产的OPEC+成员国在9月底前，完全取消此前减产计划中的一 项，即220万桶/日的自愿减产。从10月开始，这些国家已开始着手取消第二项减产（165万桶/日），本 月将实现13.7万桶/日的增产。 不过， ...

Group 1: Gold Market - Spot gold opened strong on October 6, rising nearly 1% to a record high of $3920.77 per ounce, marking a year-to-date increase of 49% [1] - COMEX gold also reached a new high of $3945.2 per ounce [1][2] - The surge in gold prices is attributed to increased uncertainty from the U.S. government shutdown and rising expectations for interest rate cuts [1] Group 2: Federal Reserve and Interest Rates - The Federal Reserve announced a 25 basis point reduction in the federal funds rate target range to 4.00% to 4.25% in September [3] - The probability of a rate cut in October is approximately 95%, with a 99% probability for December [3] - According to the CME FedWatch Tool, the likelihood of maintaining the current rate in October is only 5.4% [3] Group 3: Oil Market - OPEC+ held an online meeting on October 5 to discuss production arrangements for November, with expectations to confirm an increase of at least 137,000 barrels per day [5][6] - Since April, OPEC+ has abandoned its reduction strategy, leading to a significant increase in oil supply [6] - The International Energy Agency (IEA) predicts that if the current production trend continues, oil supply surplus could reach historical highs by 2026 [6]

Group 1 - OPEC+ announced a daily production increase of 137,000 barrels starting in November, maintaining the same moderate increase as in October due to concerns over potential supply surplus [1][4] - The decision reflects differing opinions within OPEC+, particularly between Russia, which advocated for a cautious approach, and Saudi Arabia, which sought a more aggressive increase of up to 548,000 barrels per day [3][4] - Since April, OPEC+ has been gradually abandoning its production cuts, with a total reduction peaking at 5.85 million barrels per day, and has now begun to increase production again [4][5] Group 2 - Market concerns about a potential oversupply of crude oil have led to significant price declines, with Brent crude falling 8.1% and WTI down 7.4% in the past week [5][6] - Analysts predict that the crude oil market will face substantial oversupply from Q4 2024 to 2026, driven by increased production and seasonal demand declines [5][7] - Geopolitical factors, including U.S. pressure on Middle Eastern oil production and ongoing tensions in Ukraine, are also influencing market dynamics and could impact oil prices [6][7]