Group 1 - The business sentiment index for large enterprises in Japan has turned pessimistic for the first time in over a year, dropping to -1.9, indicating more companies perceive a worsening business environment than those that see improvement [1][3] - The manufacturing sector's index plummeted to -4.8, marking a five-quarter low, with significant declines in the automotive, parts, and steel industries [3] - The non-manufacturing index reported at -0.5, the first negative value since Q3 2022, primarily dragged down by the retail and communications sectors [3] Group 2 - The latest data highlights increasing concerns among Japanese companies regarding the uncertainty of U.S. trade policies, particularly following Trump's tariff increases [3] - The automotive manufacturers and parts suppliers' index fell sharply from 8.8 to -16.1, while the steel industry index dropped from 0 to -29.1, reflecting the direct impact of U.S. tariffs [3] - Despite the Bank of Japan's governor reiterating intentions to raise interest rates when conditions allow, the dismal data may lead to more cautious policy deliberations [3]

Core Viewpoint - The U.S. Court of Appeals for the Federal Circuit has temporarily suspended the injunction against certain tariffs imposed by the U.S. government, allowing the tariffs to remain in effect during the appeal process, which is aimed at balancing the interests of all parties involved [1][4]. Group 1: Legal Proceedings and Court Decisions - The Federal Circuit's order emphasizes that the suspension of the injunction is not a final judgment but a measure to balance interests during litigation [1]. - The U.S. International Trade Court (CIT) previously ruled that President Trump could not impose unlimited tariffs under the International Emergency Economic Powers Act (IEEPA) [3]. - The Federal Circuit has expedited the case, requiring oral arguments from both parties by July 31 [1][5]. Group 2: Economic Implications - The U.S. Department of Justice argued that halting the tariffs could jeopardize sensitive trade negotiations and potentially harm the U.S. economy [1]. - If the IEEPA-related tariffs are revoked, the effective tariff rate could decrease by 10 percentage points to 6%, but this change would not fully mitigate the losses from the trade war [5]. - The World Bank has revised its forecast for U.S. economic growth down from 2.3% to 1.4% [5]. Group 3: Political and Strategic Considerations - There is ongoing uncertainty regarding the Trump administration's ability to maintain tariff barriers through other legal avenues or executive powers [1][6]. - The potential use of various trade laws to impose tariffs has been acknowledged, but the effectiveness of these options remains questionable [6]. - The impact of tariffs on the U.S. economy is expected to exacerbate the national budget deficit, with negative effects on economic growth and consumer prices [6].

摘要 小微企业受关税及摩擦成本影响显著，利润空间受挤压，海外订单新增 受阻，美国进口商持谨慎态度，对小微企业造成较大冲击。 中国房地产市场一季度短暂回升后再次进入低位徘徊，表明财政刺激政 策力度减弱，内需和外需均不积极，经济基本面在低位企稳。 中美谈判聚焦稀土出口和技术封锁，关税进一步下调难度大。陆家嘴论 坛或将公布金融政策，如推动中长期资金入市、提高企业分红等，并可 能出台生育补贴和新型政策性金融工具。 港股市场受益于新消费与新科技资产占比高，以及美元例外论瓦解后非 美元资产上涨的趋势，在全球资本外溢中具备优势。 美国 5 月褐皮书显示经济温和增长，但贸易政策不确定性对餐饮、零售、 旅游及制造业产生压力，企业对未来招聘持谨慎态度，价格压力依然存 在。 美国企业面临需求疲软导致价格上涨无法完全转嫁给消费者的问题，利 润空间受挤压，贸易政策不确定性影响企业和消费者信心。 美国 PMI 数据显示新订单急速下跌，通胀明显抬升，滞胀压力显现。美 股上涨与关税缓和预期相关，美债收益率小幅上升，美元保持反弹。 Q&A 近期国内经济的主要变化和市场策略有哪些？ 近期国内经济数据虽然整体稳定，但出现了一些微妙变化。例如，5 ...

Group 1: Market Performance - The S&P 500 index is currently about 2% away from its all-time high, a surprising scenario given the market's turmoil earlier in April due to Trump's tariffs [1] - As of last week, all three major U.S. stock indices posted gains, with the Nasdaq Composite rising over 2.3% for the week, driven by strong performances from AI leaders like Nvidia [1] - The U.S. labor market added 139,000 jobs in May, maintaining an unemployment rate of 4.2%, which alleviated concerns about a rapid economic downturn [9] Group 2: Economic Indicators - The upcoming U.S. Consumer Price Index (CPI) report for May is expected to test market optimism regarding the Federal Reserve's interest rate cuts, with economists predicting a rise in both overall and core CPI due to the impact of Trump's tariffs [4][14] - Economists expect the May CPI year-over-year to increase from 2.3% in April to 2.5%, while core CPI is anticipated to rise from 2.8% to 2.9% [14] Group 3: Corporate Earnings - Key earnings reports from GameStop (GME), Oracle (ORCL), and Adobe (ADBE) are anticipated this week, with a focus on Oracle's cloud revenue and Adobe's AI-driven creative software revenue [5] - Apple's Worldwide Developers Conference (WWDC) is set to take place, where updates on software products and potential new hardware may be revealed [17] Group 4: Trade Relations - The first meeting of the U.S.-China trade negotiation mechanism is scheduled, with expectations of significant discussions on tariff policies [3][6] - The U.S. Court of Appeals is expected to rule on the legality of Trump's tariffs, which could influence market sentiment depending on the outcome [7] Group 5: Political Dynamics - The ongoing conflict between President Trump and Tesla CEO Elon Musk has led to significant market volatility, with Tesla's stock experiencing a sharp decline following public disputes [19] - Recent comments from hedge fund manager Bill Ackman suggest a potential easing of tensions between Trump and Musk, although uncertainties remain regarding their relationship [21]

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the performance of global asset classes in May, highlighting that global stocks outperformed commodities, the renminbi, and the dollar, while global bonds showed a decline [2]. Group 1: Global Asset Performance - In May, global stocks returned 5.72%, followed by commodities at 1.26%, the renminbi at 1.00%, the dollar at -0.14%, and global bonds at -0.36% [2]. - The "Big and Beautiful Act" in the U.S. may exacerbate long-term debt risks, with projections indicating that the debt-to-GDP ratio could soar to 134%-149% by 2035 if the act is implemented [4][10]. - The probability of a U.S. economic recession is rising, leading to defensive sectors outperforming cyclical sectors, with defensive sectors showing a year-to-date valuation increase of 10.7% compared to cyclical sectors [5][13]. Group 2: Market Dynamics - Emerging markets are outperforming developed markets, driven by a weaker dollar, which reduces the holding costs of emerging market assets and alleviates debt pressures [6][15]. - Global fund managers have increased their allocation to European stocks, reaching the highest level since October 2017, with net overweights rising from 22% to 35% [6][18]. - U.S. trade policy uncertainty is identified as a significant risk for U.S. stocks, with a close correlation observed between the Bloomberg U.S. Trade Policy Uncertainty Index and the S&P 500 Index [6][22]. Group 3: Currency and Bond Market Insights - The implied volatility of the USD/HKD risk reversal options has dropped to historically low levels, indicating a dominant bearish sentiment towards the HKD [7][25]. - The forward P/E ratio premium of the "Seven Giants" in the U.S. stock market has decreased to historical lows, suggesting a reset in the valuation advantage of tech giants [8][28]. - The Japanese yen's traditional safe-haven status has weakened, leading to significant depreciation in May, while other Asian currencies benefited from tariff pauses [8][31]. Group 4: Recent Developments in Currencies - Following the U.S.-China tariff suspension agreement, the onshore renminbi exchange rate broke through the central bank's midpoint, reaching a new high for the year [9][32]. - The New Taiwan Dollar experienced significant appreciation, surpassing the 30 mark against the U.S. dollar, attributed to foreign capital inflows and global risk sentiment rebound [9][37].

今年以来黄金表现强劲，出乎不少机构的预料，现货黄金盘中一度触及3499.45美元/吨，年内涨幅逼近30%。华尔街虽然连续"撕报告"，但是仍然难赶上黄 金的上涨幅度。 道富环球投资管理对金价最新的中期走势持乐观态度，认为在多种策略性因素及结构性因素推动下，金价前景仍然乐观。该行预期今年金价下限将会到更高 水平，由原本的每盎司2000美元，上升至3000美元。今年余下时间，黄金市场将过渡到3000美元以上的波动区间，预期未来12至24个月内，可测试4000至 5000美元。 道富环球指出，金价上行受五大主题支撑，分别是（1）黄金ETF流入金额潜在上升；（2）中国买入黄金的消费者增加；（3）央行对黄金需求保持强劲； （4）替代性货币需求及全球债务上升，支持金价上涨；（5）美联储仍会减息。 此外，一些策略性因素如贸易政策的不确定性、经济衰退风险也在推动金价。 21世纪经济报道记者 叶麦穗 广州报道黄金盘中跳水，盘中已经跌破3400美元/盎司。 道富环球表示，基准情境下，虽然包括中美在内的高关税税率已下降，但贸易政策的不确定性，加上地缘政治紧张局势仍会在今年余下时间占主导地位，同 时通胀压力仍在，限制美联储减息空间。 ...

欧洲央行降息25个基点，存款机制利率下调至2%，符合市场预期，为连续第7次会议降息。 实际收入提高和劳动力市场稳健将增强家庭消费能力，叠加融资条件改善，经济对全球冲击的抵御能力 也将进一步增强。 在高度不确定的背景下，工作人员还评估了不同贸易政策可能通过何种机制影响增长和通胀，并给出了 一些替代情境分析。这些情境将在欧洲央行官网与预测报告一并发布。 另外，主要再融资利率和边际贷款利率分别从2.4%和2.65%下调至2.15%和2.4%，处于2023年初以来的 最低水平。这是对通胀放缓以及特朗普贸易战对欧元区经济增长威胁的回应。 政策声明全文 欧洲央行管委会今日决定将三大关键利率下调25个基点。尤其是，管委会决定下调存款机制利率——这 是其引导货币政策立场的主要工具，此举基于对通胀前景、潜在通胀走势以及货币政策传导强度的最新 评估。 当前通胀大致接近管委会设定的2%中期目标。根据新的欧元体系工作人员基准预测，整体通胀预计在 2025年平均为2.0%，2026年为1.6%，2027年为2.0%。 与今年3月的预测相比，2025年和2026年的预期均下调了0.3个百分点，主要反映了能源价格预期走低以 及欧元走强的影 ...

Group 1 - The European Central Bank (ECB) indicates that uncertainty in trade policies will negatively impact investment and exports [1]

Core Viewpoint - The European Central Bank indicates that uncertainty surrounding trade policies is expected to weigh on corporate investment and exports, particularly in the short term, but increasing government investments in defense and infrastructure will increasingly support economic growth in the medium term [1] Group 1 - Trade policy uncertainty is anticipated to negatively impact corporate investment and exports in the short term [1] - Government investments in defense and infrastructure are projected to provide medium-term support for economic growth [1]

美东时间6月3日，美国股市延续上涨势头，三大指数全线收高。纳斯达克综合指数表现尤为突出，上涨 156.34点，涨幅达到0.81%，收于19398.96点。标准普尔500指数上涨34.43点，涨幅0.58%，收于5970.37 点。道琼斯工业平均指数上涨214.16点，涨幅0.51%，收于42519.64点。 贸易政策的不确定性仍然存在。美国总统特朗普宣布将进口钢铁关税从25%提高至50%，该决定从6月4 日起生效。欧盟委员会对此表示遗憾，并准备采取反制措施。 纳斯达克指数在5月份创下了自2023年11月以来的最大月度涨幅，累计上涨超过9%。标普500指数5月份 累计涨幅超过6%，道指上涨约4%。这一表现反映了投资者对科技股和整体市场前景的乐观情绪。 美联储理事沃勒表示，贸易政策前景仍存在相当大的不确定性，关税可能导致一次性价格上涨。他指 出，关税对通胀的影响可能在2025年下半年达到峰值，但预计由关税引发的通胀不会持续。 本文源自：金融界 作者：观察君 科技板块成为推动市场上涨的主要动力。标普500指数十一大板块中，科技板块以1.48%的涨幅领涨， 能源板块紧随其后，涨幅达到1.11%。与此同时，通信服务板块 ...