Morning session notice 早盘提示 更多精彩内容请关注格林大华期货官方微信 格林大华期货研究院 证监许可【2011】1288 号 2026 年 1 月 23 日星期五 | | | | 铁矿: 【行情复盘】 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | | | 周四铁矿夜盘收涨。 | | | | | 【重要资讯】 | | | | | 1、国家统计局数据显示，2025 年 12 月新能源汽车产量 179.1 万辆，同比增长 8.7%； | | | | | 1-12 月产量 1652.4 万辆，同比增长 25.1%。 | | | | | 2、国家统计局数据显示，2025 年 12 月，中国原煤产量为 43703.5 万吨，同比下降 | | | | | 1.0%；1-12 月累计产量 483178.2 万吨，同比增长 1.2%。从分省数据来看，2025 | | | | | 年 1-12 月山西、内蒙古和陕西原煤产量累计同比分别增长 2.1%、-1.0%和 2.9%。 | | | | | 3、2026 年 1 月 22 日，国家统计局最新数据显示，2025 年 12 月，我国挖掘机 ...

Report Summary 1. Hot News - In 2026, the People's Bank of China will continue to implement a moderately loose monetary policy and has room for reserve requirement ratio cuts and interest rate cuts [2]. - On January 23, 2026, the People's Bank of China will conduct 900 billion yuan of MLF operations with a 1 - year term [2]. - US President Trump said he would take "major retaliatory measures" if European countries sold US assets due to his tariff threats [2]. - In mid - January, the social inventory of 5 major steel products in 21 cities was 7.09 million tons, a decrease of 20,000 tons or 0.3% from the previous period [2]. - The estimated retail volume of narrow - sense passenger cars in January is about 1.8 million, a 20.4% decrease from the previous month and a 0.3% increase year - on - year, with new energy retail reaching about 800,000 and a penetration rate of about 44.4% [2]. 2. Sector Performance - Key sectors to focus on include crude oil, coking coal, coke, silver, and styrene [3]. - Night - session performance of commodity futures: Non - metallic building materials rose 1.98%, precious metals rose 38.08%, oilseeds and fats rose 7.87%, soft commodities rose 2.69%, non - ferrous metals rose 24.46%, coal, coke, steel and minerals rose 9.34%, energy rose 2.13%, chemicals rose 9.52%, grains rose 1.11%, and agricultural and sideline products rose 2.81% [3]. 3. Sector Positions - The document shows the changes in positions of commodity futures sectors in the past five days [4]. 4. Performance of Major Asset Classes | Category | Name | Daily % Change | Monthly % Change | Year - to - Date % Change | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | Equity | Shanghai Composite Index, SSE 50, CSI 300 | 0.08, - 0.11, 0.09 | 3.73, 1.19, 2.01 | 3.73, 1.19, 2.01 | | | CSI 500 | 1.12 | 11.71 | 11.71 | | | S&P 500 | 1.16 | 0.44 | 0.44 | | | Hang Seng Index | 0.37 | 3.72 | 3.72 | | | German DAX | - 0.51 | 0.36 | 0.36 | | | Nikkei 225 | - 0.41 | 4.84 | 4.84 | | | FTSE 100 | 0.11 | 2.08 | 2.08 | | Fixed - income | 10 - year Treasury bond futures | 0.03 | 0.32 | 0.32 | | | 5 - year Treasury bond futures | 0.01 | 0.11 | 0.11 | | | 2 - year Treasury bond futures | - 0.01 | - 0.02 | - 0.02 | | Commodity | CRB Commodity Index | 0.00 | 2.53 | 2.53 | | | WTI Crude Oil | 0.43 | 5.43 | 5.43 | | | London Spot Gold | 1.47 | 11.92 | 11.92 | | | LME Copper | 0.06 | 2.12 | 2.12 | | | Wind Commodity Index | 1.90 | 24.26 | 24.26 | | Other | US Dollar Index | 0.23 | 0.51 | 0.51 | | | CBOE Volatility Index | 0.00 | 34.38 | 34.38 | [5] 5. Stock Market Risk Preference and Major Commodity Trends - The document presents the trends of the Baltic Dry Index, CRB Spot Index, WTI crude oil, London spot gold, London spot silver, LME 3 - month copper, and other commodities, as well as the risk premium of the stock market [6].

当地时间23日上午，日本首相高市早苗在内阁会议上决定解散众议院。 分析人士认为，高市选择此时解散众议院的主要目的是想借当前国内的高支持率巩固政权。日本 山口大学名誉教授纐缬厚表示，高市如果不举行新选举而召开国会例会的话，其内阁很可能会因 经济、外交、献金丑闻等问题遭到严厉质询而失去支持，因此她希望在失分前强化政权进行博 弈。 本届日本国会众议院议员的任期原定于2028年10月届满。日本宪法规定，众议院选举后30天内 须召集国会，举行首相指名选举。 证券时报各平台所有原创内容，未经书面授权，任何单位及个人不得转载。我社保留追 究相关 行 为主体 法律责任的权利。 来源：央视新闻 责编：叶舒筠 校对：高源 版权声明 潜望系列深度报道丨 股事会专栏 丨 投资小红书 丨 e公司调查 丨 时报会客厅 丨 十大明星私募访谈 丨 深夜，全线大涨！重磅数据发布 丨 000504，终止筹划重大资产重组 丨 利好！9部门重磅印发 丨 潘功胜：今年降准降息还有一定空间 丨 光模块飙升！300308成交额A股第一 丨 外交部回应美国 领导人达沃斯涉华言论 丨 科技利好！深圳重大发布！ 丨 特朗普取消对欧关税威胁！美股收高！ 丨 回应 ...

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content 2. Core Views of the Report - For the stock index, in the long - term, policies support the capital market. In the short - term, pay attention to market rhythm and adopt a strategy of buying on dips [4]. - For treasury bonds, the economy's recovery momentum needs observation. There is still room for reserve requirement ratio and interest rate cuts, but the timing of overall easing may be postponed. The bond market is expected to fluctuate, mainly affected by the stock - bond seesaw [6]. - For precious metals, in the medium - term, the Fed's subsequent interest rate cuts may increase significantly, and there is a strategy of buying on dips for gold and silver [8]. - For non - ferrous metals, most metals are expected to fluctuate, with different influencing factors such as supply - demand, policy, and inventory [11][13][15]. - For black building materials, steel products are expected to continue to oscillate at the bottom. Iron ore may oscillate weakly in the short - term. Coking coal and coke may show an oscillatory and slightly stronger trend. Glass and soda ash are expected to maintain their current trends [31][33][38]. - For energy and chemicals, different products have different outlooks. For example, crude oil is advised to be observed in the short - term with a low - buying and high - selling strategy; methanol has the feasibility of buying on dips; urea is recommended to take profit on rallies [53][56][58]. - For agricultural products, different products have different trends. For example, the short - term of live pigs may be strong, but the medium - term may be under pressure; eggs may oscillate; protein meals are advised to wait and see [77][79][82]. 3. Summary by Directory Stock Index - **Market Information**: The central bank governor said there is room for reserve requirement ratio and interest rate cuts this year. Some companies' IPOs have new progress, and space - related projects have new plans [2] - **Strategy View**: Adopt a strategy of buying on dips in the long - term and pay attention to market rhythm in the short - term [4] Treasury Bonds - **Market Information**: Bond contract prices changed slightly. The first batch of 936 billion yuan of ultra - long - term special treasury bonds for equipment renewal was issued. The central bank conducted reverse repurchase operations with a net investment of 309 billion yuan [5] - **Strategy View**: The economy's recovery momentum is uncertain. There is room for reserve requirement ratio and interest rate cuts, and the bond market is expected to fluctuate [6] Precious Metals - **Market Information**: Gold and silver prices rose. US inflation data was lower than expected, and COMEX silver inventory decreased [7] - **Strategy View**: In the medium - term, the Fed's interest rate cuts may increase, and there is a strategy of buying on dips for gold and silver [8] Non - Ferrous Metals - **Copper** - **Market Information**: LME copper prices rose, inventory increased, and domestic social inventory accumulation slowed down [10] - **Strategy View**: The market sentiment is not pessimistic, and copper prices are expected to oscillate in the short - term [11] - **Aluminum** - **Market Information**: Aluminum prices rose, and inventory changes were mixed [12] - **Strategy View**: The decline of aluminum prices is limited, and there is support in the short - term [13] - **Zinc** - **Market Information**: Zinc prices rose slightly, and inventory and other indicators changed [14] - **Strategy View**: Zinc prices have room to catch up, and need to observe PMI data [15] - **Lead** - **Market Information**: Lead prices rose slightly, and inventory increased [17] - **Strategy View**: Lead prices may oscillate, and need to observe PMI data [17] - **Nickel** - **Market Information**: Nickel prices fluctuated narrowly, and nickel iron prices rose [18] - **Strategy View**: Nickel prices are expected to oscillate widely in the short - term, and it is recommended to wait and see [18] - **Tin** - **Market Information**: Tin prices fell slightly, and supply and demand and inventory had certain changes [19] - **Strategy View**: Tin prices may oscillate, and it is recommended to wait and see [19] - **Lithium Carbonate** - **Market Information**: Lithium carbonate prices rose, and production and inventory decreased [21] - **Strategy View**: There is a risk of correction, and it is recommended to wait and see or try with a light position [22] - **Alumina** - **Market Information**: Alumina prices rose, and inventory increased [23] - **Strategy View**: It is recommended to wait and see, and pay attention to supply - side policies [24] - **Stainless Steel** - **Market Information**: Stainless steel prices rose, and inventory decreased [25][26] - **Strategy View**: The market is expected to be strong, and prices may oscillate at a high level [26] - **Cast Aluminum Alloy** - **Market Information**: Cast aluminum alloy prices oscillated, and inventory changed [27] - **Strategy View**: Prices are expected to oscillate and consolidate [28] Black Building Materials - **Steel** - **Market Information**: Steel prices rose slightly, and inventory and other indicators changed [30] - **Strategy View**: Steel prices are expected to continue to oscillate at the bottom, and need to pay attention to relevant policies [31] - **Iron Ore** - **Market Information**: Iron ore prices rose slightly, and inventory increased [32] - **Strategy View**: Iron ore prices may oscillate weakly in the short - term, and need to pay attention to steel mills' replenishment and iron - making rhythm [33] - **Coking Coal and Coke** - **Market Information**: Coking coal and coke prices rose slightly, and there were changes in spot prices and basis [34] - **Strategy View**: Coking coal and coke prices may show an oscillatory and slightly stronger trend, and need to pay attention to market sentiment [38] - **Glass and Soda Ash** - **Market Information**: Glass prices fell, and soda ash prices fell slightly. Inventory and other indicators changed [39][40] - **Strategy View**: Glass is expected to oscillate widely, and soda ash is expected to maintain a weak consolidation [39][41] - **Manganese Silicon and Ferrosilicon** - **Market Information**: Manganese silicon and ferrosilicon prices rose slightly, and there were changes in technical forms [42] - **Strategy View**: Pay attention to market sentiment and cost factors, and wait for driving factors [44] - **Industrial Silicon and Polysilicon** - **Market Information**: Industrial silicon prices rose slightly, and polysilicon prices rose. Supply and demand and inventory had certain changes [45][46] - **Strategy View**: Industrial silicon prices may oscillate repeatedly, and polysilicon prices are expected to fluctuate in the short - term [46][47] Energy and Chemicals - **Rubber** - **Market Information**: Rubber prices rebounded, and there were different views on the rise and fall [48] - **Strategy View**: Adopt a neutral view, wait and see, and consider short - selling if the price breaks through a certain level [51] - **Crude Oil** - **Market Information**: Crude oil and related product prices rose [52] - **Strategy View**: Do not be too bearish on oil prices in the short - term, and it is recommended to observe and wait for verification [53][54] - **Methanol** - **Market Information**: Methanol prices changed, and MTO profit changed [55] - **Strategy View**: It has the feasibility of buying on dips [56] - **Urea** - **Market Information**: Urea prices changed, and the basis was reported [57] - **Strategy View**: Take profit on rallies [58] - **Pure Benzene and Styrene** - **Market Information**: Pure benzene prices were stable, and styrene prices rose. Supply, demand, and inventory had certain changes [59] - **Strategy View**: Gradually take profit [61] - **PVC** - **Market Information**: PVC prices rose, and supply, demand, and inventory had certain changes [62] - **Strategy View**: Adopt a strategy of short - selling on rallies in the medium - term [63] - **Ethylene Glycol** - **Market Information**: Ethylene glycol prices rose, and supply, demand, and inventory had certain changes [64] - **Strategy View**: The supply - demand pattern needs to be improved by increasing production cuts, and beware of rebound risks [65] - **PTA** - **Market Information**: PTA prices rose, and supply, demand, and inventory had certain changes [66] - **Strategy View**: Enter the inventory accumulation stage during the Spring Festival, and pay attention to mid - term long - buying opportunities [67] - **Para - Xylene** - **Market Information**: Para - xylene prices rose, and supply, demand, and inventory had certain changes [68] - **Strategy View**: Pay attention to mid - term long - buying opportunities following crude oil [69] - **Polyethylene (PE)** - **Market Information**: PE prices rose, and supply, demand, and inventory had certain changes [70] - **Strategy View**: The downward space of PE valuation still exists, and pay attention to the supply - demand situation [72] - **Polypropylene (PP)** - **Market Information**: PP prices rose, and supply, demand, and inventory had certain changes [73] - **Strategy View**: The supply - demand is weak, and consider long - buying the PP5 - 9 spread on dips [74] Agricultural Products - **Live Pigs** - **Market Information**: Pig prices showed a pattern of rising in the north and falling in the south [76] - **Strategy View**: The short - term may be strong, but the medium - term may be under pressure [77] - **Eggs** - **Market Information**: Egg prices mostly rose [78] - **Strategy View**: Near - term contracts may oscillate, and long - term contracts have uncertain good expectations [79] - **Soybean and Rapeseed Meal** - **Market Information**: Protein meal prices changed, and there were changes in import and inventory data [80][81] - **Strategy View**: Wait and see due to many negative news [82] - **Oils and Fats** - **Market Information**: Oil and fat prices rose, and there were changes in production, inventory, and consumption data [83][84][85] - **Strategy View**: The current fundamentals are weak, but the long - term expectations are optimistic, and wait and see in the short - term [86] - **Sugar** - **Market Information**: Sugar prices oscillated weakly, and there were changes in production and import data [87][88] - **Strategy View**: Wait for the international sugar price to rebound after the northern hemisphere's harvest, and the short - term downward space of domestic sugar prices may be limited [89] - **Cotton** - **Market Information**: Cotton prices rebounded, and there were changes in import, inventory, and production data [90][91] - **Strategy View**: There is room for long - term price increase, and wait for correction to buy [92]

Core Viewpoint - The People's Bank of China (PBOC) is set to conduct a significant 900 billion MLF operation on January 23, 2026, with a net injection of 700 billion, indicating a substantial increase in mid-term liquidity support to stabilize the financial environment ahead of the Spring Festival [1][2][3]. Group 1: Liquidity Injection - The PBOC's January MLF operation will result in a net liquidity injection of 700 billion, significantly larger than the 200 billion maturing this month [1][2]. - The total mid-term liquidity net injection for January is projected to reach 1 trillion, marking a notable increase compared to previous months [1][2]. - Analysts expect the PBOC to continue enhancing liquidity measures to address potential tightening and ensure a stable financial environment [1][3]. Group 2: Market Reactions and Expectations - Market experts believe that the PBOC's actions are aimed at meeting the liquidity demands during the Spring Festival and countering the impact of increased credit issuance and government bond sales [2][3]. - The anticipated government bond issuance for the week is 706.6 billion, which is significantly higher than the previous week, indicating a potential strain on liquidity [4]. - There is a consensus that the likelihood of a reserve requirement ratio (RRR) cut before the Spring Festival is diminishing due to the substantial liquidity injection [5]. Group 3: Economic Context - The PBOC's liquidity measures are seen as a continuation of structural policy reforms aimed at supporting economic recovery and ensuring that financing costs remain low [5]. - The central bank's approach is designed to align the growth of social financing and money supply with economic growth and inflation expectations [5]. - Analysts highlight that the current economic recovery foundation needs to be solidified, and the PBOC's policies are intended to create a conducive monetary environment for long-term structural transformation [5].

Core Viewpoint - The recent statements from the central bank have intensified divergences in the bond market, with the LPR remaining unchanged for eight consecutive months, leading to new dynamics in market sentiment and bond yields [1][3]. Group 1: Bond Market Dynamics - Long-term bond yields have experienced a rare rebound since January 20, with the 30-year government bond yield dropping by 2.75 basis points and 1.6 basis points, reaching 2.261% [2]. - However, this upward trend in bond prices was not sustained, as the market saw a decline on January 22, with government bond futures falling across the board and yields on major interest rate bonds rising [2]. - The 10-year government bond yield also continued to decline, reaching approximately 1.83% on January 21 [2]. Group 2: Market Influences - The issuance situation in the primary market has been a significant factor driving the recent rebound in bond prices, with a recent issuance of 160 billion yuan of 7-year fixed-rate bonds seeing a subscription multiple of 5.91 times and a winning rate lower than the secondary market [3]. - The latest LPR remained unchanged at 3.0% for the 1-year and 3.5% for the 5-year, reflecting the central bank's cautious stance amid economic conditions [3]. - The central bank's liquidity management strategy includes maintaining ample liquidity in the banking system, with recent operations indicating a proactive approach to market liquidity [4]. Group 3: Foreign Investment Trends - Foreign investment in Chinese bonds is viewed positively, with reports indicating that commercial banks have been increasing their holdings of interest rate bonds [5]. - The recent sell-off in Japanese and U.S. bonds has led to speculation that foreign capital may be shifting towards Chinese government bonds as a safe haven [6]. - As of November 2025, foreign institutions held 3.6 trillion yuan in Chinese bonds, with government bonds making up 56.2% of this total [6]. Group 4: Future Outlook - The ongoing deepening of the bond market's openness to foreign investment is expected to facilitate steady increases in foreign holdings of Chinese bonds in the medium to long term [7]. - Despite short-term fluctuations in foreign holdings due to various market factors, the overall trend suggests a positive outlook for foreign investment in China's bond market [7].

中国人民银行1月22日消息，为保持银行体系流动性充裕，2026年1月23日，中国人民银行将以固定数量、利率招标、多重价位中标 方式开展9000亿元中期借贷便利（MLF）操作，期限为1年期。 图片来源：中国人民银行 数据显示，1月MLF到期2000亿元。因此，在此次MLF操作落地后，将净投放7000亿元。 "1月份，3个月期、6个月期买断式逆回购实现3000亿元净投放，结合MLF净投放，共实现1万亿元长期流动性净投放。"中信证券首 席经济学家明明说。 考虑到春节临近，央行加大流动性净投放规模是呵护市场流动性平稳的重要手段。在招联首席研究员董希淼看来，净投放7000亿 元，总量上介于降准0.25个百分点到0.5个百分点之间。 从降准角度看，人民银行行长潘功胜在接受新华社采访时表示，总量政策方面，灵活高效运用降准降息等多种货币政策工具，保持 流动性充裕，使社会融资规模、货币供应量增长同经济增长、价格总水平预期目标相匹配。今年降准降息还有一定的空间。 不过，此次MLF实现较大规模净投放后，今年春节之前降准的可能性降低。董希淼表示，降准是政策信号比较强烈的措施，除了释 放长期流动性，还将降低金融机构资金成本，提振市场信 ...

来源丨新华社 编辑丨曾静娇 预制菜新国标来了！罗永浩"手撕"西贝背后6000亿市场将洗牌 一则消息传来，阿里美股盘前突然涨5% 潘功胜最新表态：今年降准降息还有一定的空间 SFC 21君荐读 为切实维护消费者合法权益，促进产业高质量发展，国务院食安办组织国家卫生健康委、市场 监管总局等部门起草了《食品安全国家标准 预制菜》《预制菜术语和分类》草案；会同市场 监管总局、商务部等部门起草了关于推广餐饮环节菜品加工制作方式自主明示的公告，将于近 日向社会公开征求意见。下一步，相关部门将在充分吸纳各方意见建议的基础上，进一步修改 完善，按程序发布。 2 智能 悦 读 · 权 威 n o 扫码点击下载 ...

潘功胜表示，人民银行还要继续维护好金融市场的平稳运行。做好预期管理，保持人民币汇率在合理均 衡水平上的基本稳定。加强债券市场、外汇市场、货币市场、票据市场、黄金市场监督管理。建立在特 定情景下向非银机构提供流动性的机制性安排。继续用好支持资本市场的两项货币政策工具，支持资本 市场稳定发展。 潘功胜指出，总量政策方面，灵活高效运用降准降息等多种货币政策工具，保持流动性充裕，使社会融 资规模、货币供应量增长同经济增长、价格总水平预期目标相匹配。今年降准降息还有一定的空间。人 民银行还将做好利率政策执行和监督，促进社会综合融资成本低位运行。 北京商报讯（记者 廖蒙）1月22日，据新华社报道，对于如何落实中央经济工作会议"继续实施适度宽 松的货币政策"的要求，中国人民银行党委书记、行长潘功胜表示，2026年，中国人民银行将继续实施 好适度宽松的货币政策，把促进经济稳定增长、物价合理回升作为货币政策的重要考量，发挥增量政策 和存量政策集成效应，为经济稳定增长、高质量发展和金融市场稳定运行营造良好的货币金融环境，为 实现"十五五"良好开局提供有力的金融支撑。 ...

外资力量被看好。 近期央行发布会表态之后，债市分歧进一步加剧。最新披露的LPR（贷款市场报价利率）连续8个月按 兵不动，市场上多空博弈出现新的变化。本周以来，已处于高位多时的长债利率在无明显利好刺激的背 景下出现连续下行。 不过，债市这一"回血"表现还不稳定。1月22日，股市情绪震荡中有所分化，债市则再度震荡回落，国 债期货集体小幅下跌，银行间主要利率债收益率上行。其中，30年期国债活跃券收益率整体先下后上， 尾盘又小幅回落。 对于长债利率迎来补涨，最受关注的力量除了开年银行等机构的配置情况，还有日债、美债被抛售之际 外资的布局。在机构人士看来，短期外资的人民币债券持仓或面临持续波动，但中长期维度下，债市对 外开放的趋势有望助推外资稳步增持中国债券。 长债利率震荡回落 1月20日以来，此前经历长期阴跌并处于高位的长债利率迎来久违的补涨行情。 往后看，中信证券首席经济学家明明认为，在央行买断式逆回购、MLF（中期借贷便利）两大类工具 加码投放的背景下，短期增量工具可能趋于稳健，但长期来看，"灵活高效"的总量政策基调下，降息降 准空间较为明确，关注后续政府债供给集中发力阶段总量工具配合宽财政的可能性。 公开市场方 ...