交易咨询业务资格：证监许可【2012】1091号 天胶早报- 2025年5月26日 大越期货投资咨询部 金泽彬 从业资格证号：F3048432 投资咨询证号： Z0015557 联系方式：0575-85226759 重要提示：本报告非期货交易咨询业务项下服务，其中的观点和信息仅作参考之用，不构成对任何人的投资建议。 我司不会因为关注、收到或阅读本报告内容而视相关人员为客户；市场有风险，投资需谨慎。 CONTENTS 目 录 1 每日提示 2 3 4 基本面数据 基差 多空因素及主要风险点 天胶： 1、基本面：供应开始增加，国外现货回升，国内库存开始增加，轮胎开工率回落 中性 现货价格 青岛保税区美元报价 2、基差：现货14700，基差165 偏多 3、库存：上期所库存周环比减少，同比减少；青岛地区库存周环比减少，同比减少 中性 4、盘面：20日线走平，价格20日线下运行 偏空 5、主力持仓：主力净空，空增 偏空 6、预期：市场情绪主导，短线交易 多空因素及主要风险点 • 利多 • 1、国内经济逐步复苏 • 2、下游消费高位 • 3、原料价格偏强 • 利空 • 1、供应增加 • 2、市场库存增加 • 3、外部环 ...

周度报告—工业硅/多晶硅 工业硅弱势不改，多晶硅即将进入首次交割 | [T走ab势le_评R级an：k] | 工业硅：震荡/多晶硅：震荡 | | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 报告日期： | 2025 | 年 | 5 | 月 | 25 | 日 | [★Ta工bl业e_硅Summary] 价格持续下跌后，部分小厂计划进一步减产，但西南进入平水 期后整体开炉趋势增加，新疆大厂亦在复工复产，供给端压力 继续增加。需求端仍无明显起色，虽然有机硅较多厂已处于满 负荷生产状态，但多晶硅复产不及预期，铝合金方面维持刚需 采购。多晶硅厂家近期对工业硅粉单的采购价格在 9300-9500 元/吨。后续工业硅现货价格缺乏反弹动力。 ★多晶硅 有 色 金 属 多晶硅现货价格小跌，市场消息混杂，小作文传言诸多低价成 交订单，建议对其为致密料/混包料、新货/老库存、大客户折 前价格/折后价格进行辨析。5 月多晶硅排产约 9.3 万吨，6 月 初步排产 9.1 万吨。但周五盘后市场传言某二三线硅料厂二期 产能有复产计划，根据后续进展我们将对平衡表再进行调整。 ...

Group 1 - The article discusses the ongoing battle between bullish and bearish sentiments in the gold market, highlighting the volatility and the need for timely strategies to capitalize on market reversals [1] - It invites participants to join a futures trading group without any entry barriers, emphasizing the opportunity for technical training and additional benefits [1] - The focus is on how to effectively navigate the fluctuating market conditions to seize potential trading opportunities [1]

Report Overview - The report focuses on the fuel oil and low-sulfur fuel oil markets, analyzing their price movements, fundamentals, and trend intensities [1] Market Performance Futures Prices - FU2506 closed at 2,976 yuan/ton, down 3.19% from the previous day, with a night session increase of 1.85% [1] - FU2507 closed at 3,031 yuan/ton, down 0.59%, and had a night session increase of 0.23% [1] - LU2506 closed at 3,603 yuan/ton, down 0.96%, and had a night session increase of 0.50% [1] - LU2507 closed at 3,621 yuan/ton, down 0.55%, and had a night session decrease of 2.10% [1] Trading Volume and Open Interest - Trading volume of FU2506 was 127 lots, a decrease of 97 lots; open interest was 232 lots, a decrease of 45 lots [1] - Trading volume of FU2507 was 593,211 lots, a decrease of 60,659 lots; open interest was 146,599 lots, a decrease of 11,052 lots [1] - Trading volume of LU2506 was 486 lots, a decrease of 40 lots; open interest was 3,403 lots, a decrease of 274 lots [1] - Trading volume of LU2507 was 88,747 lots, an increase of 12,096 lots; open interest was 66,022 lots, a decrease of 3,729 lots [1] Spot Prices - Singapore MOPS high-sulfur (3.5%S) was at 431.3 dollars/ton, down 2.63%; low-sulfur (0.5%S) was at 493.4 dollars/ton, down 1.84% [1] - Singapore Bunker high-sulfur was at 435.0 dollars/ton, down 3.55%; low-sulfur was at 505.0 dollars/ton, down 2.51% [1] - Other bunker prices in different regions also showed varying degrees of decline [1] Price Spreads - FU06 - 07 spread was -55 yuan/ton, with a settlement spread of -7 yuan/ton, a difference of 48 yuan/ton [1] - LU06 - 07 spread was -18 yuan/ton, with a settlement spread of 76 yuan/ton, a difference of 94 yuan/ton [1] - LU06 - FU06 spread was 627 yuan/ton, with a settlement spread of 590 yuan/ton, a difference of -37 yuan/ton [1] - FU2506 - Singapore MOPS (3.5%S) spread was -131.2 yuan/ton, a decrease of 14.0 yuan/ton from the previous day [1] - LU2506 - Singapore MOPS (0.5%S) spread was 48.6 yuan/ton, an increase of 31.8 yuan/ton from the previous day [1] - Singapore MOPS (0.5%S - 3.5%S) spread was 62.1 dollars/ton, an increase of 2.4 dollars/ton from the previous day [1] Trend Intensity - The trend intensity of fuel oil is -1, and that of low-sulfur fuel oil is also -1, indicating a bearish outlook [1]

在投资的世界里，高收益往往伴随着高风险，期货市场更是如此。它宛如一片波涛汹涌的海洋，看似充 满机遇，实则暗礁密布，稍有不慎，就可能被巨浪吞噬。今天，我们要讲述的这几个案例，主人公们来 自不同背景，有着良好的工作和优渥的生活，他们皆因涉足期货市场而遭遇了人生的重大转折。有人为 躲债隐身当保安，有人请人作法求转运，有人外逃多年终被遣返，有人锒铛入狱。这些真实的经历，为 我们敲响了警钟，投资需谨慎，盲目跟风与冲动决策，很可能让我们陷入万劫不复的深渊。 更加确定！很少止损！收益可观！ 用【期货贸易】思路而作的波段交易策略，全品种覆盖，操作频率可高可低，适合所有投资者。直播授 课，免费参与！ 另有开户福利：手续费交易所+0或+1分，非节假日交易所保证金！ 限符合要求的客户 01 炒期货亏损400多万 局长为躲债隐身当保安 王某曾担任郴州市农机局党组成员、副局长一职。在职期间，他竟连续旷工长达146天，造成了极为不 良的影响。 据王某交代，他自认为履历丰富，曾在经济管理部门和政策研究部门工作过，还担任过乡镇和街道 的"一把手"，自诩对经济工作颇为在行。在朋友的介绍下，他踏上了投资办企业的道路，从此过上了亦 官亦商的生活。 ...

纯碱玻璃产业日报 2025-05-22 | 项目类别 | 数据指标 | 最新 | 环比 数据指标 | 最新 | 环比 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 期货市场 | 纯碱主力合约收盘价(日,元/吨) | 1286 | -2 玻璃主力合约收盘价(日,元/吨) | 1018 | -16 | | | 纯碱与玻璃价差(日,元/吨) | 268 | 14 纯碱主力合约持仓量(日,手) | 1441126 | -24595 | | | 玻璃主力合约持仓量(日,手) | 1548635 | 64371 纯碱前20名净持仓 | -261537 | 9043 | | | 玻璃前20名净持仓 | -241826 | -77015 纯碱交易所仓单(日,吨) | 2317 | -453 | | | 玻璃交易所仓单(日,吨) | 3459 | -109 纯碱9月-1月合约价差 | 10 | 1 | | | 玻璃合约9月-1月价差 | -56 | -2 | | | | | 华北重碱(日,元/吨) | 1320 | 0 华中重碱(日,元/吨) | 1400 | 0 | | 现货市场 | 华 ...

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints - The index has stable support below and high pressure for upward breakthrough. For the stock index, A - share sectors rotate with stable trading volume. The short - term 10 - year treasury bond interest rate may fluctuate between 1.6% - 1.7%, and the 30 - year treasury bond interest rate may be in the range of 1.85% - 1.95%. Gold may continue to rise if it stabilizes at $3300 (775 yuan), and silver may follow gold to冲击 the previous high of $33.5 (8350 yuan). The container shipping index is in short - term consolidation, and industrial material demand and inventory are deteriorating. Crude oil is affected by macro and geopolitical risks, and the future depends on OPEC+ production policies in June. Many commodities have their own price trends and trading suggestions based on supply - demand and market conditions [2]. 3. Summary by Category Financial Sector - **Stock Index Futures**: Index has stable support below and high upward pressure. For IF2506, sell put options at the support level to earn premium; for IM, go long on the September contract on pullbacks and sell call options with a strike price of 6400 in September for covered call strategies [2]. - **Treasury Bond Futures**: Short - term 10 - year treasury bond interest rate may fluctuate between 1.6% - 1.7%, and 30 - year between 1.85% - 1.95%. Adopt a wait - and - see approach for unilateral strategies and focus on high - frequency economic data and capital flow [2]. - **Precious Metals**: Gold may continue to rise if it stabilizes at $3300 (775 yuan), and silver may follow to冲击 the previous high of $33.5 (8350 yuan). Sell out - of - the - money gold call options and take profit opportunistically [2]. Black Sector - **Steel**: Industrial material demand and inventory are deteriorating. Consider long hot - rolled coil and short coke or coking coal strategies. Iron ore is in a range - bound between 700 - 745. Coke prices are in a new downward phase, and coking coal may be in the bottom - hunting stage [2]. - **Silicon - based Alloys**: Silicon iron has marginal improvement in supply - demand with stable costs, ranging between 5500 - 5800. Manganese ore has supply pressure, and the price ranges between 5500 - 5900 [2]. Non - ferrous Sector - **Base Metals**: Copper's social inventory is de - stocking, with the main contract focusing on the 78000 - 79000 resistance. Zinc's main contract ranges from 21500 - 23500. Nickel's main contract ranges from 122000 - 128000. Stainless steel has cost support but supply - demand contradictions, with the main contract ranging from 12600 - 13200. Tin prices are boosted by strong reality, and consider shorting in the 265000 - 270000 range [2]. Energy and Chemical Sector - **Crude Oil**: Affected by macro and geopolitical risks, the future depends on OPEC+ production policies in June. WTI may range from [59, 69], Brent from [61, 71], and SC from [450, 510] [2]. - **Other Chemicals**: Urea's main contract may fluctuate between [1820, 1920]. PX and PTA are supported by tight supply - demand. PF, PR follow PTA trends. MEG may fall due to downstream production cut expectations. EB is short - term volatile and medium - term bearish. Caustic soda can be considered for positive spread trading. PVC rebounds slightly but the spot market is weak. Synthetic rubber is falling. LLDPE and PP have weak supply - demand. Methanol's inventory has a turning point [2]. Agricultural Sector - Grains and Oils: Soybean meal is strong due to market speculation on Argentine weather. Corn has limited downside and rebounds. Palm oil is strong due to improved exports. Sugar has a loose overseas supply outlook. Cotton is affected by the easing of the Sino - US trade war [2]. - Livestock and Poultry: Pig futures are weak in the short - term. Eggs' spot price is in low - level oscillation. Apples' trading volume is low due to the busy farming season. Jujubes are in low - level oscillation. Peanuts' price is stable [2]. Special and New Energy Sectors - **Special Commodities**: Soda ash can be considered for positive spread trading in May - June. Glass should observe the support at the 1000 - point level. Rubber is bearish with a trading range of 14500 - 15500. Industrial silicon prices are falling, with a range of 7500 - 9500 yuan/ton [2]. - **New Energy Commodities**: Polysilicon futures are in low - level oscillation, with a price range of 34000 - 40000 yuan/ton. Lithium carbonate's main contract ranges from 58000 - 62000 [2].

观点与策略 | 对二甲苯：空PX多SC | 2 | | --- | --- | | PTA：多PX空PTA | 2 | | MEG：多PTA空MEG | 2 | | 橡胶：宽幅震荡 | 4 | | 合成橡胶：区间震荡 | 6 | | 沥青：区间震荡，观望为上 | 8 | | LLDPE：短期震荡，后期仍有压力 | 10 | | PP：价格小跌，成交一般 | 12 | | 烧碱：反弹难持续 | 13 | | 纸浆：震荡运行 | 15 | | 玻璃：原片价格平稳 | 17 | | 甲醇：震荡承压 | 18 | | 尿素：高位震荡 | 20 | | 苯乙烯：短期震荡 | 22 | | 纯碱：现货市场变化不大 | 23 | | LPG：原油宽幅震荡，内盘支撑走弱 | 24 | | PVC：后期仍有压力 | 27 | | 燃料油：日盘延续偏强，夜盘涨势暂缓 | 29 | | 低硫燃料油：短线继续转弱，外盘高低硫价差出现下跌 | 29 | | 集运指数（欧线）：短期偏弱，10-12反套持有 | 30 | | 短纤：短期震荡，成本支撑偏弱 | 33 | | 瓶片：短期震荡，成本支撑偏弱 | 33 | | 胶版印刷纸：震荡偏 ...

2025 年 5 月 22 日 沥青：区间震荡，观望为上 王涵西 投资咨询从业资格号：Z0019174 wanghanxi023726@gtjas.com 【基本面跟踪】 表 1：沥青基本面数据 | | 项 目 | 单 位 | 昨日收盘价 | 日涨跌 | 昨夜夜盘收盘价 | 夜盘涨跌 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | BU2506 | 元/吨 | 3,537 | -0.11% | 3,533 | -0.11% | | | BU2507 | 元/吨 | 3,519 | 0.26% | 3,515 | -0.11% | | 期 货 | | | 昨日成交 | 成交变动 | 昨日持仓 | 持仓变动 | | | BU2506 | 手 | 68,157 | (42,023) | 52,731 | (15,232) | | | BU2507 | 手 | 188,675 | 55,147 | 173,436 | 4,526 | | | | | 昨日仓单 | 仓单变化 | | | | | 沥青全市场 | 手 | 86510 | 0 | | | | | | | 昨 ...

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content 2. Core View of the Report - The sentiment in the pig industry is weak, and there may be a phased inventory reduction. The current situation shows that the price spreads between fat pigs in the north and south are inverted, the sale of group piglets has decreased, and the recent pressure of fat pig sales initially confirms inventory accumulation. The official number of piglets confirms the inventory, and the market expectation has weakened. There is a possibility of phased weight reduction due to trade circulation issues, and the positive spread structure may switch. The January contract is affected by liquidity, and although it is a peak - season contract before the Spring Festival, the increase in positions is limited, causing the far - month spread to deviate from the seasonal reasonable spread at present. Wait for the opportunity of liquidity shift, and continuously layout the 11 - 1 reverse spread in the medium - and long - term, paying attention to stop - profit and stop - loss. The short - term support level for the LH2509 contract is 13,000 yuan/ton, and the pressure level is 15,000 yuan/ton [3] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Fundamental Tracking - **Price**: The Henan spot price is 14,600 yuan/ton, down 150 yuan/ton year - on - year; the Sichuan spot price is 14,250 yuan/ton, unchanged year - on - year; the Guangdong spot price is 15,290 yuan/ton, up 150 yuan/ton year - on - year. The futures prices of pig2507, pig2509, and pig2511 are 13,285 yuan/ton, 13,650 yuan/ton, and 13,335 yuan/ton respectively, down 70 yuan/ton, 40 yuan/ton, and 25 yuan/ton year - on - year [1] - **Trading Volume and Open Interest**: The trading volume of pig2507 is 5,518 lots, an increase of 92 lots from the previous day, and the open interest is 27,386 lots, an increase of 356 lots from the previous day; the trading volume of pig2509 is 15,772 lots, an increase of 1,459 lots from the previous day, and the open interest is 78,562 lots, a decrease of 118 lots from the previous day; the trading volume of pig2511 is 2,948 lots, a decrease of 228 lots from the previous day, and the open interest is 32,576 lots, an increase of 397 lots from the previous day [1] - **Price Spread**: The basis of pig2507, pig2509, and pig2511 are 1,315 yuan/ton, 950 yuan/ton, and 1,265 yuan/ton respectively, down 80 yuan/ton, 110 yuan/ton, and 125 yuan/ton year - on - year. The 7 - 9 spread of pigs is - 365 yuan/ton, down 30 yuan/ton year - on - year, and the 9 - 11 spread is 315 yuan/ton, down 15 yuan/ton year - on - year [1] 3.2 Trend Intensity - The trend intensity is 0, indicating a neutral market sentiment. The trend intensity ranges from - 2 (most bearish) to 2 (most bullish), with classifications including weak, weak - biased, neutral, strong - biased, and strong [2] 3.3 Market Logic - The current situation shows that the price spreads between fat pigs in the north and south are inverted, the sale of group piglets has decreased, and the recent pressure of fat pig sales initially confirms inventory accumulation. The official number of piglets confirms the inventory, and the market expectation has weakened. There is a possibility of phased weight reduction due to trade circulation issues, and the positive spread structure may switch. The January contract is affected by liquidity, and although it is a peak - season contract before the Spring Festival, the increase in positions is limited, causing the far - month spread to deviate from the seasonal reasonable spread at present. Wait for the opportunity of liquidity shift, and continuously layout the 11 - 1 reverse spread in the medium - and long - term, paying attention to stop - profit and stop - loss. The short - term support level for the LH2509 contract is 13,000 yuan/ton, and the pressure level is 15,000 yuan/ton [3]