（原标题：欧盟将飞机和波本威士忌列入拟议中的反制措施） 爱尔兰RTE新闻5月8日报道，欧盟已确认提议对从美国进口的"大范围的工业和农产品"征收关税， 总价值将达950亿欧元。如果欧盟与美国的贸易谈判不能达成"互利的结果"，将实施关税。 欧盟委员会称，此次咨询旨在解决美国对欧盟商品征收10%的普遍关税和对欧盟制造的汽车征收 25%关税的问题，这是"不公平和有害的"。 冯德莱恩表示，关税已经对全球经济产生了负面影响。欧盟仍然致力于与美国通过谈判找到解决方 案。同时，将继续为各种可能性做好准备，今天启动的咨询将帮助我们完成这项必要工作。 爱尔兰总理马丁今天在布鲁塞尔会见了冯德莱恩，马丁一再强调，爱尔兰强烈希望通过谈判达成解 决方案，并表示在贸易战中，最终每个人都会输，最贫穷的人损失最大。 清单中包括飞机，这对已经向美国制造商波音公司订购飞机的瑞安航空是一个潜在的打击。清单上 还包括波本威士忌、葡萄酒、苹果酒、汽车、自行车、船只、智能手机、牲畜、大豆、橄榄和有限的药 品。 欧盟委员会主席冯德莱恩曾多次表示，如果与美国的贸易关系恶化，将采取一切可能的措施。 今天提出的反制措施包括农产品64亿欧元、飞机105亿欧元、汽车 ...

Core Points - The recent high-level economic talks between China and the United States have garnered significant international attention, resulting in important agreements that benefit both nations and the global economy [1][2] - The talks, held in Geneva from May 10 to 11, were characterized by "candid, in-depth, and constructive communication," with a positive tone noted by various banking experts [1] - The reduction of bilateral tariffs is seen as aligning with the expectations of producers and consumers, contributing to easing current tensions [1] Group 1 - The talks are viewed as a significant step towards improving economic prospects and are welcomed by international trade experts [2] - The progress made in the talks has been described as encouraging, signaling a commitment to continued dialogue and cooperation [2] - The United Nations has expressed that maintaining a positive and mutually beneficial relationship between the world's two largest economies is advantageous for all [2]

Core Points - The U.S. has significantly reduced tariffs on small packages from China, dropping from 120% to 30%, which is expected to ease trade tensions between the two countries and provide relief for Chinese e-commerce platforms like Temu and Shein [1][9] - Following recent high-level trade talks, both nations agreed to lower tariffs by 115% within 90 days, marking a potential thaw in the ongoing trade standoff [1][9] - The number of small packages entering the U.S. has surged from approximately 140 million a decade ago to over 1 billion last year, with the value of Chinese exports to the U.S. projected to rise from $5.3 billion in 2018 to $66 billion in 2023 [4][9] Tariff Changes - The new tariff structure includes a 54% tax on small packages, while maintaining a $100 de minimis threshold for duty-free items, and reversing plans to increase this threshold to $200 [1][4] - Despite the reduction, experts indicate that a 54% tariff remains high, causing delays in package deliveries and impacting consumer purchasing behavior [1][4] Consumer Impact - U.S. consumers have increasingly turned to Temu and Shein for affordable products, but recent price hikes on these platforms, including a 377% increase on kitchen paper towels, have made these goods less accessible [5][6][9] - Approximately 48% of small packages are sent to the poorest regions in the U.S., indicating a reliance on affordable imports among lower-income consumers [8] Political Context - The trade war initiated by the Trump administration has disrupted decades of international trade norms, leading to concerns about a potential recession in the U.S. economy [9] - Young Americans, who have become accustomed to affordable fast fashion and online shopping, are expressing frustration over the impact of tariffs on their purchasing power [9][10]

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the current state of China's economy, highlighting the challenges in stimulating domestic demand and the impact of external factors such as tariffs and inflation in the U.S. [1] Group 1: Economic Conditions - China's export decline and the unchanged inflation expectations in the U.S. indicate a persistent economic challenge for both countries [1] - Recent policies aimed at stimulating domestic demand, such as interest rate cuts, have been implemented, but their effectiveness is yet to be seen [1] Group 2: Domestic Demand Issues - The traditional methods of boosting domestic demand have proven ineffective, suggesting a need for new strategies [2] - The low proportion of disposable income relative to GDP raises concerns about consumer spending, as previous consumption was driven by real estate price bubbles [4] - The lack of long-term security and insufficient social welfare contribute to a culture of forced savings among the population, limiting consumption [13] Group 3: Structural Economic Challenges - The debate over whether to rely on market mechanisms or planned economy approaches for resource allocation is crucial, as current planning efforts may lead to inefficiencies [8] - The suggestion to cut ineffective infrastructure projects and redirect funds to social security systems raises concerns about potential short-term economic slowdown and increased unemployment [12] Group 4: Housing Market and Consumption - Stimulating the housing market is viewed as a significant way to boost consumption, as home purchases represent a major expenditure for consumers [9] - The financial burden of housing loans on new homeowners indicates a trend of high leverage in consumer spending [10] Group 5: Future Outlook - The need to cultivate a large middle class with high-income jobs is emphasized as essential for sustaining domestic demand [18] - The article questions whether the perceived stagnation in domestic demand is due to a misinterpretation of what constitutes consumption, particularly in light of significant government investment in infrastructure and housing [19]

《中美日内瓦经贸会谈联合声明》并未涉及今年4月份之前的关税对抗内容，即：特朗普以芬太尼为借口，在2月与3月分两次对中国商品累积加收20%的关 税依然保留，而我国的反制措施同样也保留着。 即2月初，我国对来自美国的煤炭、液化天然气加征15%的关税，对来自美国的石油、农业机械、大排量汽车、皮卡等商品加征10%的关税，附件中列出的 其他数十种美国商品，分别加征相应的关税。 3月份，我国对美国产的鸡肉、小麦、玉米、棉花等商品加征15%关税，对美国产的高粱、大豆、猪肉、牛肉、水产品、水果、蔬菜、乳制品等加征10%关 税，附件中列出的其他美国商品，加征相应的关税。 这两次的反制措施都是组合拳，既有对等反制，也就是对美国商品加关税，也有不对等反制措施，包括且不限于将部分美国企业纳入制裁名单，吊销部分美 国企业对华出口资质，管制或禁止稀有金属出口…… 联合声明涉及的内容，都是4月之后的 也就是特朗普公开的"对等关税"名录，给中国商品加收34%的关税，在新的协议中将之拆分成两部分，10%的基础关税继续保留，剩余的24%关税给予90天 豁免期（谈判期）——以后是否要收，得继续谈判。 在白宫公布"对等关税"名录后，我国立刻予以反制 ...

Group 1 - The market dynamics this week are complex, influenced by interest rate paths, economic growth expectations, and central bank policy signals, with key focus on US CPI, PPI, and Fed Chair Powell's speech [1] - Stock market shows cautious optimism due to breakthroughs in diplomacy, trade negotiations, and easing global tensions, bolstered by President Trump's positive remarks urging Americans to "buy immediately" [1] - Despite the UK trade agreement providing tariff exemptions for key goods, US-China dialogue continues, with Trump viewing recent talks in Switzerland as a potential "reset" to ease the trade war [1] Group 2 - Geopolitical developments, such as the ceasefire between India and Pakistan and Russia's call for direct negotiations with Ukraine, have positively impacted the market, with traders focusing on broader diplomatic shifts [2] - Key economic data to watch includes US CPI expected to remain at 2.4% and core CPI projected to drop from 2.8%, which may strengthen expectations for a shift in Fed policy [2] - On May 15, significant data releases include UK GDP growth forecast at 0.0% and US PPI expected to rebound to 0.2%, indicating potential inflationary pressures that complicate the Fed's outlook [2] Group 3 - Overall, the market reflects reduced disruptions from global diplomatic issues, but increased focus on economic direction, with traders weighing inflation data against central bank communications [3] - Market positioning will depend on whether macro signals support easing policies or suggest further tightening is necessary, amidst uncertainties from trade negotiations [3]

哈费勒最新的谨慎态度与其4月10日上调美股评级形成了逆转，当时正值特朗普宣布暂停实施一周前加 征的大部分关税后的第二天。 哈费勒表示，自瑞银上调评级以来，标普500指数已经攀升了约11%，这使得风险与回报更加平衡。 这位瑞银买方首席投资官还将他的评级调整与周一中美宣布相互削减关税、股市大幅上涨联系起来。中 美关税削减缓解了短期担忧，此前人们担心特朗普的高额关税计划会引发世界两大经济体之间的贸易 战。 尽管在中美调整双边关税水平后华尔街其他机构变得更加乐观，但瑞银财富（UBS Wealth）周二仍对 美股采取观望态度，对近期反弹表示怀疑。 瑞银的投资主管马克・哈费勒（Mark Haefele）将美国股市的评级从"有吸引力"下调至"中立"，他指 出，他并非看空股市，也不是建议客户抛售股票，而是认为过去一个月股市上涨过快。此前，在4月初 美国宣布新关税政策后，投资者变得过于悲观。 高盛首席美国股票策略师大卫・科斯坦（David Kostin）周二将标普500指数2025年的目标价从5900点上 调至6100点，理由是关税税率降低、经济增长前景改善以及经济衰退的可能性降低。 亚德尼研究公司（Yardeni Resea ...

周三（5月14日）欧洲时段，欧元/美元小幅上涨至接近1.1200，在美国4月通胀数据低于预期后，美元 保持防御姿态。欧元兑美元上涨，荷兰国际集团分析师Francesco Pesole在一份研报中称，这是因为周二 美国公布了低于预期的通胀数据，不过，欧元兑美元进一步上涨的空间可能有限。 美国4月通胀数据低于预期，导致美元（USD）兑欧元（EUR）走弱。交易员等待德国4月harmonized Index of Consumer Prices（HICP）数据以获得新的动力，该数据定于周三晚些时候公布。 根据美国劳工统计局周二发布的数据，衡量美国通货膨胀的消费者价格指数（CPI）在4月同比下降 2.3%，低于市场预期的2.4%和3月份的2.4%，创下自2021年2月以来的最低水平。核心CPI（排除波动较 大的食品和能源价格）4月同比上涨2.8%，与前值和预期持平。美国CPI报告出炉后，美元立即走软。 经过两天在瑞士日内瓦的谈判，美国和中国同意相互降低关税。美国将对中国进口商品的关税从145% 降至30%，中国将美国进口商品的关税从125%降至10%。市场对世界上两个最大经济体之间可能达成关 税协议以缓和贸易战的乐观情 ...

推文截图 文章称，世界上大多数国家接受了这一建议，但此后却发现，与一名似乎不懂贸易运作方式的总统达成 全球贸易协议非常困难。各国外交官们沮丧万分，因为他们根本无法确定特朗普到底想从他们那里得到 什么，更不用说他准备提供什么回报了。迄今为止，只有英国通过让步与美国达成协议。 相反的是，中国采取了对美反制措施，对美国进口产品征收高额关税，并实施对美稀土出口限制。 观察者网消息，"不要被特朗普的虚张声势唬住，中国给全世界打了个样。" 5月12日，美国《大西洋月刊》以此为题刊文称，美国总统特朗普向全球高举关税大棒，同时发出严厉 警告："不得报复，必有回报"。然而中国无视了这一警告，最终却得到了回报。同日早些时候，中美在 经贸高层会谈后同意在90天内降低关税，将税率下调115%。 "今天上午，特朗普基本暂停了贸易战，得到的只是中方持续谈判的承诺，"《大西洋月刊》专刊作者乔 纳森·柴特写道，"受到特朗普威胁的每个人，无论是国家、企业还是大学，都可以从中国那里学到一 课。" 4月2日，特朗普宣布所谓"解放日"关税政策，对全世界征收高额"对等关税"。 文章称，特朗普公布关税政策的同时，还上演了一场独特的"霸权主义戏剧"。特朗 ...

1、现货市场：日照嘉吉一级豆油 8130 元/吨，较上一交易日涨 50 元/吨。 2、国际大豆：当前时间窗口下，正处美豆播种、省长与南美豆收割、出口季，目前巴西豆 收割基本完成。总体来看，南美新作丰产格局或将大概率成为事实。美国农业部 5 月 US DA 报告显示，2025/26 年度大豆单产预估为 52.5 蒲式耳/英亩，2024/25 年度预估为 50.7 蒲式 耳/英亩。 3、国内产业层面：综合供需端，豆油中期去库周期或逐渐进入尾声阶段，关注后市南美进 口大豆到港、海关检验放行后，豆油库存或低位反弹。 4、参考观点：豆油 2509 合约，短线或区间震荡整理。 现货信息：43 豆粕各地区现货报价：张家港 2990 元/吨（-20）、天津 3080 元/吨（0）、 日照 3010 元/吨（-20）、东莞 3050 元/吨（-10）。 市场分析：（1）宏观面: 中美经贸会谈将在瑞士进行，关注会谈内容。 （2）国际大豆：USDA5 月报告发布，美豆产量下调，全球库存增加。市场交易重心转移至 北美播种季，巴西大豆进入出口高峰期。 （3）国内豆粕供需面：大豆供给逐渐恢复，油厂开机率提升，豆粕供给预期由紧转为宽松。 ...