Core Viewpoint - Trump's decision to impose a 50% import tariff on Brazil is driven more by political motives than economic considerations, reflecting his personal emotions and geopolitical strategies [1][3][13] Political Motivations - The tariff serves as a means for Trump to express support for Brazilian President Bolsonaro, who is facing legal challenges, and to retaliate against Brazilian President Lula for his criticisms of U.S. policies [3][5] - Trump's actions are also a response to Lula's strong stance against U.S. policies, particularly the "America First" agenda, which Lula has publicly criticized [5][9] - The imposition of tariffs is intended to send a warning to other countries, particularly those in the BRICS group, against challenging the dominance of the U.S. dollar [5][6] Economic Implications - Brazil's response to the tariffs includes plans for reciprocal measures, supported by other BRICS nations, which collectively account for 32% of global GDP [6] - The tariffs could negatively impact U.S. exporters, particularly in the agricultural machinery and chemical sectors, leading to a potential "self-inflicted" economic harm for the U.S. [6][12] Misconceptions in Trade Policy - Trump's belief that the U.S. is at a disadvantage in trade due to deficits overlooks the necessity of maintaining trade imbalances to support the dollar's global status [9][10] - The attempt to unilaterally alter global trade rules fails to recognize the complexities of the international economic order, which relies on the U.S.'s technological and financial leadership [10][11] - The zero-sum game mentality in a globalized economy is increasingly outdated, as interdependence among nations grows [11][12] Future Outlook - The current tariff policy is unlikely to achieve its intended goals and may exacerbate tensions between the U.S. and Brazil, as well as other nations [12][13] - The potential for increased isolation of the U.S. in global trade dynamics is a significant concern, as the world moves towards a more multipolar order [13]

面对特朗普新一轮关税威胁，欧盟正在双线同时发力应对。 据媒体周一报道，欧盟高官透露，已准备价值210亿欧元的对美反制关税清单，同时积极寻求与印度等 亚太国家深化贸易合作，并计划与其他受美国关税冲击的国家协调行动。 Tajani进一步透露，如果与美国达成协议被证明不可能，欧盟准备的210亿欧元关税方案还可能跟进第二 套措施。不过他表示对谈判取得进展仍有信心。 关税伤害每一个人，首先是美国。如果股市下跌，将危及美国人的养老金和储蓄。 他强调目标应该是在加拿大、美国、墨西哥和欧洲之间实现"零关税"和开放市场。 深化亚太合作，寻求贸易新出路 面对美国关税威胁，欧盟正积极向亚太地区寻求新的贸易机会。欧盟竞争事务专员Teresa Ribera周一表 示，欧盟正寻求深化与印度和其他亚太国家的贸易协议。 综合央视新闻报道，当地时间7月12日，美国总统特朗普宣布自2025年8月1日起，美国将对来自墨西哥 和欧盟的输美产品征收30%的关税。作为回应，欧盟委员会主席冯德莱恩当地时间13日表示，将把对美 国关税的反制措施暂停期延长至8月初。 意大利外长Antonio Tajani周一接受媒体采访时表示，如果双方无法达成贸易协议，欧盟 ...

北京时间周一（7月14日）欧盘时段，美元指数交投于97.88附近，现货白银目前交投于39.01美元/盎 司，今日开盘于38.39美元/盎司，截至发稿白银价格最高上探39.08美元/盎司，最低触及38.34美元/盎 司。 今日白银价格最新查询（2025年7月14日） | 名称 | 最新价 | 单位 | | --- | --- | --- | | 现货白银 | 39.01 | 美元/盎司 | | 白银t+d | 9179 | 元/千克 | | 纸白银 | 8.971 | 元/克 | | 沪银主力 | 9207 | 元/千克 | 特朗普周六在Truth Social上公布分别发给欧盟执委会主席冯德莱恩(Ursula von der Leyen)和墨西哥总统 希恩鲍姆(Claudia Sheinbaum)的信函，宣布新关税。 特朗普还表示，对欧盟和墨西哥30%的关税将独立于所有行业关税。这意味着美国对钢铁和铝进口征收 50%的关税、对汽车进口征收25%的关税的做法将继续保留。 【晚间白银交易策略】 当前阻力位在39.075美元附近，若突破可能测试更高水平；支撑位关注38.5美元（近期回调关键位）。 近期白银价格波动较 ...

所有人都没有预料到，欧盟这个在国际贸易中常常"骑墙"的角色，竟然成为特朗普这次贸易战的最大输家，甚至最终遭到了"制裁"。根据昨晚的最新消息， 美国总统特朗普宣布，自8月1日起对欧盟和墨西哥征收高达30%的关税。这一消息一经传出，立刻引发了全球范围内的强烈反响。 在几天前，欧盟与美国的谈判进展已有所披露，当时欧盟在谈判中做出了相当大的让步，最终美国承诺对欧盟仅征收10%的对等关税，部分领域如汽车、药 品和航空航天等则加征25%的关税。然而，令所有人大跌眼镜的是，特朗普这次直接将税率从原本的10%提升至30%，这一变动远远超出了所有人的预期。 稍微算一算，欧盟征收的30%关税，与美国对中国征收的34%关税几乎持平。对此，欧盟感到震惊，甚至难以分辨自己到底是美国的盟友，还是中国才是。 那么，欧盟的27个成员国面对这一局面，是选择屈服妥协，还是像中国一样与美国展开激烈的对抗？这是否意味着新一轮的欧美贸易战即将爆发？接下来， 我们将探讨这个问题。写这篇文章并不容易，欢迎大家点赞、转发和收藏。 那么，特朗普为何对欧盟下如此狠手呢？从特朗普的角度来看，欧盟并非是美国的"商业盟友"，而恰恰是美国经济的一大威胁。虽然美国市场一 ...

Group 1 - Silver futures closed at 9207 yuan/kg on July 14, with a daily increase of 2.11% and a trading volume of 1,093,003 contracts [1] - The spot price of silver in Shanghai was quoted at 9168 yuan/kg, showing a discount of 39 yuan/kg compared to the futures price [1] - The U.S. President Trump announced a 30% tariff on goods imported from Mexico and the EU starting August 1, escalating trade tensions [1][2] Group 2 - Trump demanded that the EU eliminate tariffs to reduce the significant trade deficit, emphasizing the need for open market access [2] - The response from the EU and Mexico indicated that the tariffs are unfair and destructive, with commitments to continue negotiations for a broader trade agreement [1][2] - According to Guotou Futures, precious metals, including silver, are expected to remain volatile due to the uncertainty surrounding the U.S. tariff policies and potential retaliatory measures from other countries [2]

Report Industry Investment Ratings No relevant content provided. Core Views - The data reflects China's economic resilience, the market risk - aversion sentiment eases, and it is recommended to hold long positions in stock index futures; the market interest rate consolidates, the Treasury bond rebounds slightly, and it is recommended to hold light long positions in Treasury bonds [2] - Under the "anti - involution" situation, the supply of finished steel may shrink, and attention should be paid to the implementation of specific policy documents; the expectation of old - city renovation and shantytown transformation has spurred long - position funds, and the price increase of coke by mainstream coking plants will be implemented this week, leading to a sharp rise in the black sector [3] - Trump's latest tariff measures have escalated the trade war, the market risk - aversion sentiment has rebounded to boost the gold price; the expectation of the Fed's interest rate cut in September has decreased, and attention should be paid to this week's CPI data; it is expected that gold will maintain a high - level shock [4] - The spot price of logs is stable, the expected arrival volume will decrease month - on - month, the supply center will move down, the supply pressure will ease, the average daily outbound volume will remain above 60,000 cubic meters, the supply - demand contradiction is not significant, and attention should be paid to the impact of log futures delivery on log prices [5] - The production of natural rubber in domestic and foreign producing areas is steadily increasing, and there is still room for the raw material price to decline; the port inventory remains at a high level, and the weak fundamentals cannot support the continuous rise of rubber prices [6] - The USDA monthly report on US soybeans has a negative impact, the growth of US soybeans is good, and South American soybeans have a bumper harvest and continuous exports; about 10 million tons of imported soybeans will arrive in July, the oil mill operating rate remains high, the oil mill pick - up volume has declined, the soybean meal inventory has continued to rise, and soybean meal will fluctuate weakly [7] - The possibility of new US sanctions supports oil prices, PX continues to destock and fluctuates with oil prices; the supply - demand expectation of PTA weakens and it will follow cost fluctuations in the short term; the raw materials have recovered, but the supply - demand of MEG weakens, and the upside space of the market is restricted [8] - The market supply - demand stalemate is obvious. Farmers in northern regions cut prices for promotion due to the pressure of selling livestock, while southern regions stabilize the market by adjusting the supply rhythm; the weak consumer demand restricts price increases, and the regional price difference gradually widens; it is expected that domestic hog prices will maintain small - scale fluctuations [9] Summaries by Related Catalogs Stock and Bond - Data shows China's economic resilience, market risk - aversion sentiment eases, hold long positions in stock index futures; market interest rate consolidates, Treasury bond rebounds slightly, hold light long positions in Treasury bonds [2] Black - "Anti - involution" may shrink finished steel supply, pay attention to policy implementation; old - city renovation expectation spurs long - position funds, coke price increase by coking plants will be implemented this week, leading to a sharp rise in the black sector [3] Gold - Trump's tariff measures escalate trade war, market risk - aversion boosts gold price; Fed's September interest - rate cut expectation decreases, pay attention to CPI data, gold to maintain high - level shock [4] Logs - Spot log price is stable, expected arrival volume to decrease, supply pressure eases, average daily outbound volume above 60,000 cubic meters, pay attention to futures delivery impact [5] Natural Rubber - Production in domestic and foreign areas increases, raw material price may decline, port inventory is high, weak fundamentals can't support price rise [6] Soybeans and Soybean Meal - USDA report on US soybeans is negative, US soybeans grow well, South American soybeans export continuously; about 10 million tons of imported soybeans in July, oil mill operating rate high, pick - up volume down, soybean meal inventory up, soybean meal to fluctuate weakly [7] Oil - Related Chemicals - US sanctions may support oil prices, PX destocks with oil price fluctuations; PTA supply - demand weakens, follows cost in short term; MEG supply - demand weakens, upside space restricted [8] Hogs - Market supply - demand stalemate, northern farmers cut prices, southern regions adjust supply, weak consumer demand restricts price, hog prices to fluctuate slightly [9]

金十数据7月14日讯，在欧盟领导人准备应对特朗普威胁对欧洲进口商品征收30%关税之际，荷兰国际 银行经济学家Carsten Brzeski和Inga Fechner写道："特朗普在上周末写给冯德莱恩的信中表示，关税将 于8月1日生效。三周是一段很长的时间。"欧盟在对美国进口钢铁等产品采取反击措施之前等待这一最 后期限是正确的。他们告诉投资者，目前的形势"仍有很大的谈判空间。""我们只能重复之前的观点， 即贸易战中没有赢家，只有输家。" 荷兰国际：欧盟仍有时间与美国达成贸易协议 ...

Group 1: Brazil's Response to U.S. Tariffs - Brazil's government swiftly countered Trump's announcement of a 50% tariff on all Brazilian goods, highlighting a $410 billion trade surplus the U.S. has enjoyed over the past 15 years and a $32 billion surplus last year [1] - Brazil's countermeasures include imposing a reciprocal 50% tariff, halting patent licenses for U.S. pharmaceutical companies, and redirecting 500,000 tons of beef exports to China, which is double the amount previously sent to the U.S. [1] - The Brazilian Congress passed the "Commercial Reciprocity Law," targeting U.S. soybeans, Boeing aircraft, and natural gas with additional tariffs, causing panic among U.S. pharmaceutical companies [1] Group 2: Japan's Strong Stance - Japan's Prime Minister expressed the need for Japan to reduce its dependency on the U.S. in defense and energy, framing the tariff negotiations as a critical battle for national sovereignty [3] - Japan is considering selling up to $1.1 trillion in U.S. Treasury bonds as leverage against the U.S., which could significantly impact U.S. financing costs [3] - Japanese companies like Toyota and Mitsubishi are shifting production away from the U.S. and cutting supply to the U.S. military, which could lead to substantial losses for American firms reliant on Japanese components [3] Group 3: Political and Economic Implications - Trump's tariffs are seen as a response to Brazil's shift towards using local currencies in trade with China, reducing the dollar's dominance [4] - The tariffs also reflect U.S. concerns over Brazil's efforts to issue bonds in yuan and the establishment of a digital currency backed by commodities [4] - The political nature of the tariffs is underscored by Trump's demands for Brazil to cease investigations into former President Bolsonaro, which Brazil views as interference in its judicial sovereignty [4] Group 4: Global Reactions and Economic Impact - The tariffs have triggered a global chain reaction, with South Korea and the EU preparing retaliatory measures against U.S. tariffs, indicating a broader trade conflict [6] - Goldman Sachs estimates that a prolonged trade war could increase global inflation by 0.7%, while U.S. businesses face rising costs due to tariffs, with automotive costs expected to rise by 15% [6] - The price of Brazilian coffee beans surged by 30% within a week due to the tariffs, reflecting immediate market impacts [6] Group 5: U.S. Isolation and Domestic Division - Trump's tariff policies have led to unprecedented unity among BRICS nations, with a collective condemnation of U.S. unilateralism and a push for de-dollarization [8] - Domestic backlash against the tariffs is evident, with criticism from influential figures like Elon Musk and concerns from agricultural states about losing voter support due to disrupted soybean exports [9] - The "America First" policy has resulted in increased global isolation for the U.S. and significant internal divisions within the country [9]

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the recent imposition of punitive tariffs by the U.S. on Brazil, highlighting Brazil's response and potential for retaliation against U.S. trade policies [3][8]. Group 1: U.S. Tariff Actions - On July 9, U.S. President Trump announced a new tax letter imposing a 50% tariff on Brazilian products, significantly higher than the previous 10% tariff [3][4]. - Other countries receiving the tariff notice had rates not exceeding 30%, indicating a targeted approach towards Brazil [3][4]. Group 2: Brazil's Response - Brazilian Vice President Geraldo Alckmin criticized the new tariffs as unfair, noting that Brazil has a trade surplus with the U.S. and most Brazilian imports are duty-free [4][7]. - President Lula of Brazil declared that the country would not accept control from any nation and vowed to respond to the U.S. tariffs, emphasizing Brazil's diversified trade structure [8][10]. Group 3: Brazil's Economic Resilience - Brazil's largest trading partner is China, which allows it to maintain economic stability even if it loses the U.S. market [10]. - The country has a robust agricultural and manufacturing system, with a GDP ranking of 12th globally in 2022, indicating strong domestic consumption capacity [10]. Group 4: Potential for Broader Resistance - Brazil's stance may inspire other countries to resist U.S. tariffs, potentially leading to a collective pushback against what is perceived as U.S. trade hegemony [13].

Core Viewpoint - The EU is currently in critical negotiations with the US regarding tariffs, with President Trump threatening a 30% tariff on EU products, prompting a response from EU leaders who are seeking to negotiate rather than retaliate aggressively [1][4]. Group 1: EU's Response to US Tariff Threats - EU Commission President Ursula von der Leyen announced the postponement of retaliatory tariffs on $210 billion worth of US products, originally set to take effect on July 15, to early August, emphasizing a preference for negotiation [1][4]. - Von der Leyen stated that the EU will continue to prepare additional countermeasures while prioritizing negotiations with the US [1][7]. - The EU is planning to engage with countries like Canada and Japan to coordinate responses to the US tariffs [3][4]. Group 2: Internal EU Reactions and Criticism - Some European business organizations and politicians criticized von der Leyen's approach as weak, suggesting that failure to respond effectively to Trump's tariffs would be a significant setback [1][4]. - French President Macron expressed strong dissatisfaction with Trump's threats and urged the EU to prepare credible countermeasures if negotiations fail [4][9]. - Italian officials and agricultural organizations warned that the proposed tariffs could have devastating effects on Italy's food exports, estimating direct losses of around €2.3 billion [8][9]. Group 3: Economic Impact and Negotiation Dynamics - Germany, being the largest exporter to the US, reported a 7.7% decline in exports to the US in May, highlighting the economic impact of the tariff threats [5][7]. - EU leaders are divided on whether to pursue a quick trade agreement similar to the UK's or to continue negotiations for a better outcome [4][9]. - EU officials believe that Trump's threats may be a negotiation tactic rather than a definitive policy change, with expectations that a reasonable solution can still be reached [4][5].