1、"反内卷"政策规范外卖平台，互联网板块迎来政策暖风 本篇评级为★★★，主要围绕以下内容展开： 1、"反内卷"政策规范外卖平台，互联网板块迎来政策暖风 2、中美关系转暖还有消息在路上，市场预期大幅增加 如有疑问请以音频内容为准，添加小虎哥微信：miaotou515 ，入群有机会与董小姐进一步交流。 新闻解读评级说明：五星重磅，四星重要，三星级以下大家选择听。 今天，国内市场在历经了两三天的小幅回撤之后，再次扭头向上、再接再厉，呈现出红通通的一片。在 这背后，有几条新的消息跟大家刷新一下。 第一条来自政策层面：海外媒体彭博社报道称，中国市场监管部门目前正在外卖领域开展竞争规范。此 前众所周知，外卖几大平台大打价格战、搞"内卷式"竞争，进行超常规补贴，战火如火如荼，导致许多 商家无利可图。未来，这一方向很可能受到总量和总额的限制。 据该外媒消息，监管总局正在起草一份规范，后续将以正式文件形式发布。正如我们此前聊到的，这场 外卖大战起始于6月底、7月初；战火蔓延后，各大平台实际并未获得太多好处，即便短暂提升了市场份 额，资本市场却纷纷"用脚投票"，股价大幅下挫。 当时我们点评：从政策视角看，此举属"顶风作案"，未 ...

贵州茅台"三箭齐发"！承诺75%以上现金分红 60亿元回购后火速增持 估值修复下底部机会凸显 【中国白酒网】近一年时间，作为大盘蓝筹以及大消费的代表，贵州茅台持续高比例分红的同时， 积极回购增持，"三箭齐发"之下，公司有望在"反内卷"政策中受益。 公布增持计划后火速行动 值得一提的是，上述增持计划与"60亿元"的回购进展同日发布，意味着，前脚完成60亿元回购，后 脚就开启了增持计划，充分彰显公司对自身发展的信心，同时也极大提振了市场信心。 截至9月23日，贵州茅台年内表现领先白酒行业指数。 股息率连续3年增长，承诺未来分红率不低于75% 在投资者回报方面，贵州茅台是名副其实的"分红大户"。根据历史数据，2001年以来（宣告日期统 计），贵州茅台累计分红超过3360亿元。2017年，公司分红首次突破百亿元；2022年至2024年，公司分 红持续超过600亿元，现金分红率（现金分红/净利润）分别为95.79%、84.01%、75%。 近日，贵州茅台(600519)公告，控股股东"茅台集团"已获得中国农业银行股份有限公司贵州省分行 出具的贷款承诺函，农业银行承诺对茅台集团股票增持事项提供贷款支持，贷款额度不高于人民 ...

投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2011】1778 号 姓名：涂伟华 宝城期货投资咨询部 从业资格证号：F3060359 投资咨询证号：Z0011688 电话：0571-87006873 邮箱：tuweihua@bcqhgs.com 作者声明 本人具有中国期货业协会 授予的期货从业资格证书，期 货投资咨询资格证书，本人承 诺以勤勉的职业态度，独立、 客观地出具本报告。本报告清 晰准确地反映了本人的研究观 点。本人不会因本报告中的具 体推荐意见或观点而直接或间 接接收到任何形式的报酬。 黑色金属 | 日报 2025 年 9 月 24 日 煤焦日报 专业研究·创造价值 多空交织，煤焦窄幅震荡 核心观点 焦炭：9 月 24 日，焦炭主力合约报收于 1730 元/吨，日内录得 1.14%的涨 幅。截至收盘，主力合约持仓量为 4.50 万手，较前一交易日仓差为+113 手。现货市场方面，日照港准一级湿熄焦平仓价格指数最新报价为 1470 元/吨，周环比持平；青岛港准一级湿熄焦出库价为 1440 元/吨，周环比 下跌 4.00%。供需方面，截至 9 月 19 日当周，样本焦化厂和钢厂焦炭日 均产量合计 113.37 万吨，周 ...

近一年时间，作为大盘蓝筹以及大消费的代表，贵州茅台持续高比例分红的同时，积极回购增持，"三 箭齐发"之下，公司有望在"反内卷"政策中受益。 为积极响应交易所"提质增效重回报"的号召，去年9月，贵州茅台发布回购预案，回购金额不低于30亿 元且不超过60亿元，本次回购股份将用于注销并减少公司注册资本。 自今年1月，公司首次实施回购，截至8月30日，公司回购总额累计60亿元，已达到回购预案的金额上 限，即贵州茅台8个月回购60亿元。 公布增持计划后火速行动 近日，贵州茅台(600519)公告，控股股东"茅台集团"已获得中国农业银行股份有限公司贵州省分行出具 的贷款承诺函，农业银行承诺对茅台集团股票增持事项提供贷款支持，贷款额度不高于人民币27亿元。 这是继2023年7月以来，贵州茅台股东再次开展增持计划。 就在此前的8月30日，贵州茅台公告称，茅台集团基于对公司长期价值的认可和未来发展的信心，计划 自增持计划公告发布之日起6个月内，通过集中竞价交易方式增持公司股票，拟增持金额不低于人民币 30亿元（含）且不高于人民币33亿元（含）。 在公布拟增持计划后，贵州茅台9月2日公告，股东茅台集团通过集中竞价交易方式，增持6 ...

Summary of Conference Call Notes Industry Overview - The conference call discusses the chemical industry, particularly the petrochemical sector, which is facing challenges such as overcapacity and declining profitability [1][6][15]. Key Points and Arguments 1. **Government Policies**: The National Development and Reform Commission (NDRC) has revised the Price Law and implemented measures to address excessive investment and price competition below cost, aiming to restore fair competition [1][2][4]. 2. **Challenges in the Petrochemical Industry**: The industry is experiencing significant overcapacity, with production capacity increasing by over 50% from 2020 to 2024, yet overall output value has not increased, leading to declining profitability [6][15]. 3. **Investment Opportunities**: The chemical industry is currently undervalued, with low price-to-book (PB) ratios and low holding ratios, presenting a good investment opportunity. The prices of chemical products are elastic and can transmit inflation, making it a favorable time to invest [2][16]. 4. **Focus on Specific Sub-industries**: Attention should be given to sub-industries with high loss levels, old equipment ratios, and high energy consumption, such as spandex, titanium dioxide, organic silicon, nylon, coal chemical, and soda ash [17][18]. 5. **Regulatory Changes**: The revised Price Law emphasizes cost monitoring to combat disorderly price competition, including low-cost dumping, and aims to transition to a more market-oriented pricing mechanism [7][15]. 6. **Environmental Regulations**: New policies, such as the Fixed Asset Investment Energy Saving Review and Carbon Emission Evaluation Measures, aim to control new capacity and promote the orderly exit of outdated production capacity [8][10][11]. 7. **Supply-side Reform**: The current policies reflect lessons learned from previous supply-side reforms, focusing on eliminating outdated capacity and ensuring compliance with national standards [19][20]. Additional Important Content - **Market Dynamics**: The chemical industry is characterized by low valuations and significant potential for recovery, with the government promoting a unified national market to stabilize growth [2][20]. - **Future Trends**: The industry is expected to enter a new upward cycle, driven by government policies aimed at stabilizing growth and addressing overcapacity issues [20]. - **Investment Strategy**: Investors are encouraged to focus on leading companies in high-loss sub-industries that meet specific criteria, as these companies are likely to benefit from the current policy environment [18][20].

Report Investment Rating - No investment rating information is provided in the report. Core View - Although the supply of industrial silicon has decreased due to the reduction in the start - up rate, the overall oversupply situation remains unchanged. The demand from the three major downstream industries (organic silicon, polysilicon, and aluminum alloy) for industrial silicon is generally flat. The current industry inventory is still high, and the upward momentum of industrial silicon prices will gradually weaken after reaching 9000. It is recommended to buy on dips [2]. Summary by Directory Futures Market - The closing price of the main contract is 9020 yuan/ton, up 95 yuan; the position of the main contract is 270,931 lots, down 2765 lots; the net position of the top 20 is - 67,515 lots, up 224 lots; the warehouse receipts of GZEE are 49,963 lots, up 161 lots; the closing price of the December contract is - 400 yuan/ton, down 5 yuan; the spread between the November - December contracts is - 400 yuan, down 5 yuan [2]. Spot Market - The average price of oxygen - passed 553 silicon is 9500 yuan/ton, unchanged; the average price of 421 silicon is 9700 yuan/ton, unchanged; the basis of the Si main contract is 480 yuan/ton, down 95 yuan; the spot price of DMC is 11,120 yuan/ton, up 60 yuan [2]. Upstream Situation - The average price of silica is 410 yuan/ton, unchanged; the average price of petroleum coke is 1860 yuan/ton, unchanged; the average price of clean coal is 1850 yuan/ton, unchanged; the average price of wood chips is 490 yuan/ton, unchanged; the ex - factory price of graphite electrodes (400mm) is 12,250 yuan/ton, unchanged [2]. Industry Situation - The monthly output of industrial silicon is 366,800 tons, up 33,600 tons; the weekly social inventory of industrial silicon is 552,000 tons, up 10,000 tons; the monthly import volume of industrial silicon is 1337.59 tons, up 1220.14 tons; the monthly export volume of industrial silicon is 76,642.01 tons, up 2635.83 tons [2]. Downstream Situation - The weekly output of organic silicon DMC is 44,900 tons, up 700 tons; the average price of aluminum alloy ADC12 in the Yangtze River spot market is 20,800 yuan/ton, unchanged; the weekly average price of photovoltaic - grade polysilicon is 6.54 US dollars/kg, up 0.09 US dollars/kg; the overseas market price of photovoltaic - grade polysilicon is 15.75 US dollars/kg, unchanged; the monthly export volume of unforged aluminum alloy is 29,063.7 tons, up 4154.82 tons; the weekly start - up rate of organic silicon DMC is 71.12%, down 1.59 percentage points; the monthly output of aluminum alloy is 1.635 million tons, up 99,000 tons; the monthly export volume of aluminum alloy is 29,063.7 tons, up 4154.82 tons [2]. Industry News - On September 20, the first - phase lithium carbonate project of Luopu Xihai New Energy Materials Co., Ltd. was put into operation in the Hetian Kungang Economic and Technological Development Zone (Non - ferrous Metal Industrial Park) in Luopu County, Hetian Prefecture, Xinjiang Uygur Autonomous Region [2]. Supply - side Analysis - The current start - up rate of industrial silicon is 33.12%, down 1.91% month - on - month. There are expectations of production cuts in the southwest region, and some enterprises plan to cut production. Most manufacturers in the southwest will operate until the end of October and have no plans to resume production. In the northwest region, manufacturers have stable start - up rates, especially in Yili, where large factories have expectations of resuming production. However, the overall oversupply situation has not improved [2]. Demand - side Analysis - In the organic silicon field, the market is declining, profits are decreasing, and the expectation of production increase is declining, with a negative impact on the demand for industrial silicon. In the polysilicon field, inventory and start - up rates are rising, increasing the demand for industrial silicon. But due to limited price increases in downstream links and expected contraction in long - term photovoltaic market demand, the continuous growth of polysilicon's demand for industrial silicon may be restricted. In the aluminum alloy field, inventory is rising, prices are flat, the start - up situation is stable, but demand is average, with limited pulling effect on industrial silicon. Overall, the total demand from the three major downstream industries for industrial silicon remains flat [2].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The supply of soda ash is expected to be abundant, demand will decline slightly, and prices will continue to face pressure, but there may be variables with the "anti - involution" hype. It is recommended to buy soda ash main contracts at low levels in the short term [2]. - The supply and demand of glass remain at a low level, the profit has recovered due to the increase in spot prices. The current real - estate situation is not optimistic, which may drag down glass demand. It is recommended to buy glass main contracts at low levels in the short term [2]. 3. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs Futures Market - Soda ash main contract closing price is 1307 yuan/ton, up 34 yuan; glass main contract closing price is 1237 yuan/ton, up 54 yuan. Soda ash main contract position is 1398447 hands, down 17058 hands; glass main contract position is 1316149 hands, up 248 hands [2]. - Soda ash top 20 net position is - 250293, up 25073; glass top 20 net position is - 87318, up 107221. Soda ash exchange warehouse receipts are 3727 tons, up 1598 tons; glass exchange warehouse receipts are 0 tons, unchanged [2]. - Soda ash basis is - 127 yuan/ton, down 54 yuan; glass basis is - 157 yuan/ton, down 54 yuan. The spread between January and May glass contracts is - 119, up 10; the spread between January and May soda ash contracts is - 87, up 1 [2]. Spot Market - North China heavy soda ash is 1180 yuan/ton, down 20 yuan; Central China heavy soda ash is 1300 yuan/ton, unchanged. East China light soda ash is 1250 yuan/ton, unchanged; Central China light soda ash is 1215 yuan/ton, unchanged [2]. - Shahe glass sheets are 1080 yuan/ton, unchanged; Central China glass sheets are 1140 yuan/ton, unchanged [2]. Industry Situation - Soda ash plant operating rate is 85.53%, down 1.76%; float glass enterprise operating rate is 76.01%, unchanged. Glass in - production capacity is 16.02 million tons/year, unchanged; glass in - production line number is 225, unchanged [2]. - Soda ash enterprise inventory is 169.57 million tons, down 5.99 million tons; glass enterprise inventory is 6090.8 million heavy boxes, down 67.5 million heavy boxes [2]. Downstream Situation - Cumulative real - estate new construction area is 39801.01 million square meters, up 4595.01 million square meters; cumulative real - estate completion area is 27693.54 million square meters, up 2659.54 million square meters [2]. Industry News - The ministries jointly issued a notice on the steady growth of the building materials industry, including strict control of cement and glass production capacity, promotion of capacity replacement, and elimination of backward production capacity [2]. Viewpoint Summary - Soda ash: Supply is expected to be loose, demand will decline slightly, and prices will continue to be under pressure, but there may be changes with "anti - involution" speculation [2]. - Glass: Supply and demand remain at a low level, the profit has recovered due to the increase in spot prices. The real - estate situation is not optimistic, which may drag down glass demand. The market will fluctuate around the demand side, and the overall de - stocking trend remains unchanged [2]. Prompt Attention - For soda ash, it is recommended to buy main contracts at low levels in the short term, paying attention to operation risks. For glass, it is also recommended to buy main contracts at low levels in the short term, paying attention to operation risks [2].

就在此前的8月30日，贵州茅台公告称，茅台集团基于对公司长期价值的认可和未来发展的信心，计划 自增持计划公告发布之日起6个月内，通过集中竞价交易方式增持公司股票，拟增持金额不低于人民币 30亿元（含）且不高于人民币33亿元（含）。 近日，贵州茅台公告，控股股东"茅台集团"已获得中国农业银行股份有限公司贵州省分行出具的贷款承 诺函，农业银行承诺对茅台集团股票增持事项提供贷款支持，贷款额度不高于人民币27亿元。这是继 2023年7月以来，贵州茅台股东再次开展增持计划。 在公布拟增持计划后，贵州茅台9月2日公告，股东茅台集团通过集中竞价交易方式，增持67,821股公司 股票，占公司总股本的0.0054%，增持金额超过1亿元。从首次披露至实施增持，公司行动极为迅速。 60亿元回购额稳居A股首位 近一年时间，作为大盘蓝筹以及大消费的代表，贵州茅台（600519）持续高比例分红的同时，积极回购 增持，"三箭齐发"之下，公司有望在"反内卷"政策中受益。 公布增持计划后火速行动 截至9月23日，贵州茅台最新滚动市盈率约为20倍，高于白酒行业指数，长期保持估值溢价。从历史数 据来看，贵州茅台近5年的最低市盈率19.69倍，平均 ...

Group 1 - The core viewpoint is that anti-involution policies are accelerating in high-end manufacturing sectors such as electronics and semiconductors, aiming to enhance international competitiveness and secure a more favorable position for China in global competition [1] - The decision-makers are focusing on rectifying low-price disorderly competition, promoting the orderly exit of backward production capacity, and correcting the chaotic local government investment attraction practices [1] - In the electronics sector, particularly in consumer electronics and optical optoelectronics, the low inventory and capital expenditure are expected to improve the tight supply situation [1] Group 2 - The semiconductor sector is benefiting from breakthroughs in AI and the Sino-U.S. technology competition, showing significant growth potential [1] - The anti-involution policies, combined with improved corporate cash flow, may lead to a rebound in the Producer Price Index (PPI), driving the recovery of profitability in the technology sector [1] - The semiconductor equipment ETF (159516) tracks the semiconductor materials and equipment index (931743), focusing on upstream materials and equipment in the semiconductor industry, reflecting the overall performance of technology-intensive enterprises [1] Group 3 - Investors without stock accounts can consider the Guotai Zhongzheng Semiconductor Materials and Equipment Theme ETF Initiated Link A (019632) and Link C (019633) [1]

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings Overall Industry Outlook - The report does not provide a comprehensive investment rating for the entire agricultural industry. However, it offers individual outlooks for various agricultural products: - **Protein Meal (Soybean Meal and Rapeseed Meal)**: Oscillating weakly [2][6] - **Corn and Starch**: Oscillating [8] - **Pigs**: Oscillating weakly [9] - **Natural Rubber (RSS3 and TSR20)**: Oscillating [10][12] - **Synthetic Rubber**: Oscillating [13] - **Cotton**: Oscillating weakly in the medium - term, with short - term attention to support levels [14] - **Sugar**: Oscillating weakly in both the short and long term [15] - **Pulp**: Oscillating [16] - **Offset Printing Paper**: Consider interval operations between 4100 - 4400 [17] - **Logs**: Oscillating around 800 in the short term [19] 2. Core Views of the Report - The report analyzes multiple agricultural products. The main influencing factors include international policies (such as Argentina's cancellation of export tariffs), weather conditions, supply - demand relationships, and market sentiment. For example, Argentina's cancellation of soybean and other grain export tariffs impacts the global and domestic markets of related products, and weather conditions affect crop yields and harvest schedules [1][6][8]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs 3.1. Protein Meal - **Logic**: Argentina's cancellation of soybean export tariffs leads to a decrease in export prices and an expected increase in export volume, which is bearish for the domestic and international soybean markets. Domestically, the opening of import profit for Argentine soybeans, soybean meal, and soybean oil is expected to increase imports, causing short - term pressure on the domestic market. In the long run, domestic soybean meal supply may increase in Q4 2025, and the supply gap may disappear in Q1 2026. On the demand side, the consumption of soybean meal may increase steadily, while rapeseed meal follows the trend of soybean meal [1][6]. - **Outlook**: Both soybean meal and rapeseed meal are expected to oscillate weakly. It is recommended to take profits on previous long positions and then wait and see [2][6]. 3.2. Corn and Starch - **Logic**: The price of domestic corn shows regional differentiation. In the short term, there is pressure from the concentrated listing of new grain, and Argentina's cancellation of corn export tariffs also affects market sentiment. In the long term, the price is not pessimistic under the scenario of tightening carry - over inventory, presenting a short - term bearish and long - term bullish pattern [8]. - **Outlook**: Oscillating. Pay attention to short - selling opportunities on rebounds and reverse spread opportunities [8]. 3.3. Pigs - **Logic**: In the short term, the supply of pigs is abundant, and the cost of breeding is expected to decrease due to Argentina's policy. In the long term, if the "anti - involution" policy continues to be implemented, the supply pressure in 2026 will gradually weaken [9]. - **Outlook**: Oscillating weakly. The price is expected to face supply pressure after the National Day, and attention can be paid to reverse spread strategies [9]. 3.4. Natural Rubber - **Logic**: Rubber prices are relatively resistant to decline due to favorable fundamentals, showing a pattern of strong spot prices, inventory reduction, and narrowing basis. However, due to poor commodity sentiment, it is difficult to rise independently. In the short term, attention should be paid to the supply increase in the production area and the inventory reduction rate, as well as the downstream procurement willingness [12]. - **Outlook**: Oscillating strongly in the short term. Consider short - term long positions on pullbacks in September [12]. 3.5. Synthetic Rubber - **Logic**: The BR futures contract oscillates within a range. The overall commodity trend is weak, but natural rubber is relatively strong, supporting the BR futures. The fundamentals and price operation logic have not changed significantly recently. The price is expected to continue to oscillate between 11300 - 12300 [13]. - **Outlook**: Oscillating within a range in the short term [13]. 3.6. Cotton - **Logic**: The expected increase in Xinjiang's cotton production in the new year leads to the market trading the expected supply surplus in advance, causing the cotton price to decline. The current inventory is tight, and the demand has improved seasonally, but the sustainability of the peak - season demand is questionable. The market shows a pattern of tight near - term and loose far - term supply [14]. - **Outlook**: Oscillating weakly in the medium term. In the short term, pay attention to the support at 13500 yuan/ton [14]. 3.7. Sugar - **Logic**: Zhengzhou sugar prices continue to decline, breaking through the 5500 yuan/ton level. Macroeconomically, the market has digested the Fed's interest - rate cut. Fundamentally, the international trade flow is loose, and domestic consumption and imports are not favorable. In the long term, the global sugar supply is expected to be abundant in the 25/26 crushing season [15]. - **Outlook**: Oscillating weakly in both the short and long term [15]. 3.8. Pulp - **Logic**: Pulp futures oscillate at a low level, with differences between near - term and far - term contracts. The market has both positive and negative factors, but the impact is not strong. The fundamentals are still bearish, but the futures price has already factored in the negative news, and the price of bleached northern softwood kraft pulp has stabilized [16]. - **Outlook**: Oscillating. It is recommended to wait and see [16]. 3.9. Offset Printing Paper - **Logic**: The futures price oscillates narrowly around 4200 yuan. The short - term fundamentals have limited changes, with sufficient supply and no obvious contradiction between supply and demand. Attention should be paid to new driving factors such as publishing tenders [17]. - **Outlook**: Consider interval operations between 4100 - 4400 [17]. 3.10. Logs - **Logic**: The log futures price oscillates narrowly. The fundamentals have marginally improved, but there is no strong upward driving force. From the perspective of delivery, it has a bearish impact on the futures price [19]. - **Outlook**: Oscillating around 800 in the short term [19].